Lean Six Sigma Green Belt

Certification Course
Statistical Distributions
 Learning Objectives

By the end of this lesson, you will be able to:

Identify the types of statistical distributions

Explain the Central Limit Theorem

 Scenarios

What is the likelihood that there are What is the probability that he What is the chance that a customer
no more than 10 defects per day? achieves a 30-minute turn-around- will browse through the merchandise
time? in the store before making a
purchase?
Statistical Distributions
Classes of Distribution
 Classes of Distribution

• Based on assumed model of • Describes the population

distribution • Use the measured data to parameters based on the
determine a model to describe sample data using a particular
• Used to find the chances of a the data used distribution model
certain outcome/event to occur

Inferential
Probability Statistics
Statistics
 Key Terms

A distribution of a variable is a description of the relative number of times

Distribution of a variable
each possible outcome will occur in a number of trials.

A function or equation that describes the probability a certain value will

Probability function
occur is called a probability function.

Probability Mass Function (PMF) is a function that gives the probability

Probability mass function
that a discrete random variable is exactly equal to some value.

Probability Density Function is a function that gives the probability that a

Probability density function
continuous random variable is exactly equal to some value.

A function or equation that describes the cumulative probability of a given

Cumulative distribution function value or any value smaller than it will occur is called the cumulative
distribution function.
 Types Of Statistical Distribution

Statistical
Distributions

Discrete Continuous
Probability Probability
Distribution Distribution

Binominal Poisson Normal Chi-square

T-distribution F-distribution
Distribution Distribution Distribution Distribution
 Discrete Probability Distribution

Discrete probability distribution is characterized by the probability mass function.

These distributions help in predicting the sample behavior that has been observed in a population.

Population

Sample
Illustration of the Probability Mass Function (PMF)
 Binomial Distribution

Binomial distribution is a probability distribution for the discrete data.

Based on the Bernoulli Used best in situations where the

process to predict sample size is less than 30 and
sample behavior less than 10% of population

Used to deal with Expressed as a percentage of

defective items non-defective items
 Binomial Distribution: Formula

n n-
P(R) = C r* p r* (1-p) r

Where,
P(R) = probability of exactly (r) successes out of a sample size of (n)
p = probability of success
r = number of successes desired
n = sample size
 Key Calculations of Binomial Distribution

Mean 𝜇 = 𝑛𝑝

n = Sample size
p= Probability of success

Standard deviation 𝜎 = √𝑛𝑝(1 − 𝑝)

Sample factorial 5! = 5 ∗ 4 ∗ 3 ∗ 2 ∗ 1 = 120

calculation 4! = 4 ∗ 3 ∗ 2 ∗ 1 = 24
 Binomial Distribution: Example

? Using binomial distribution formula, find the probability of getting 6 heads in 10 coin tosses.

!
Outcomes are statistically independent.
Therefore,

p = probability of success = 0.5 (this remains fixed over time)

n = sample size = 10
r = number of successes desired = 6

P R = 10
6
∗ 0.56 ∗ 1 − 0.5 10−6
= 0.205078 = 20.5%

=BINOM.DIST(successes, trails, probability for success, cumulative distribution?)

=BINOM.DIST( 6, 10, 0.5, FALSE) = 20.5%
 Poisson Distribution

Poisson distribution is an application of the population knowledge to predict the sample behavior.

Used to predict the number

Used for discrete data
of defects

Used to describe the probability

distribution of an event with
respect to time or space Used where the number of
trials is large and tends
towards infinity
Describes discrete data
resulting from a process

Used where the probability of

Deals with integers which success in each trail is very small
can take any value
 Poisson Distribution: Formula

𝑋 −λ
λ ∗ e
P 𝑥 =
𝑥!
Where,
P(x) = Probability of exactly (x) occurrences in a Poisson distribution (n)
λ = Mean number of occurrences during interval
x = Number of occurrences desired
e = Base of the natural logarithm (equals 2.71828)

Mean of a Poisson Distribution (µ) = λ

Standard Deviation of a Poisson Distribution (σ) = λ
 Poisson Distribution: Example

?
The past records of a traffic intersection shows that the mean number of accidents every
month is three at this junction. Assume that the number of accidents follows a Poisson
distribution and calculate the probability of number of accidents happening in a month.

Given: =15 per month

! Now, probability of zero accidents per week P 0 =

30 ∗ e−3
0!
31 ∗ e−3
= 0.0498 = 5.0%

Probability of exactly one accident per week P 1 = = 0.1494 = 15.0%

1!
Probability of more than two accidents per week = 1 – [P(0)+P(1)+P(2)] = 1 –
[0.0498+0.1494+0.2240]
= 0.5768 = 57.7%

=POISSON.DIST(successes desired, average of past successes, cumulative distribution?)

=POISSON.DIST( 0, 3, FALSE) = 5.0% OR POISSON.DIST(2,3,TRUE) = 42.3%
 Continuous Probability Distribution

Continuous probability distribution is characterized by the probability density function.

Variable is continuous if the Distributions help to predict the

range of possible values fall sample behavior observed in a
along an infinite continuum population
 Normal Distribution

The Normal or Gaussian distribution is a continuous probability distribution.

Illustrated as N (µ, σ) Distribution is bell or upside down

bath tub shaped and symmetrical

Higher frequency of values The total area under the normal

around the mean and lesser curve p(x which is found in the
occurrences away from it distribution) = 1.

Used as a first approximation

to describe real-valued Distribution is continuous and
random variables symmetrical
Normal Distribution with Mean = 100
Standard Deviation = 10
Helps in finding probabilities for
To standardize comparison of
data points anywhere within the
dispersion a standard Z
distribution
variable is used
 Normal Distribution: Formula

(Y − µ)
Z=
σ
Where,
Z = number of standard deviations between Y and the µ
Y = Value of the data point in concern
µ = Mean of the population
σ = Standard deviation of the population
 Normal Distribution: Z-Table

The probability of areas This probability is the area

under the curve is 1. under the curve to the left of
point a+ to 0.

Normal distribution Standard normal

Uses actual data: distribution
Average = 25 Standardized data to:
Standard deviation = 5 Average = 0
Standard deviation = 1
 Normal Distribution: Left Tail Z-Table

Z 0.0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09

0.0 0.5000 0.5040 0.5080 0.5120 0.5160 0.5199 0.5239 0.5279 0.5319 0.5359

0.1 0.5398 0.5348 0.5478 0.5517 0.5557 0.5596 0.5636 0.5675 0.5714 0.5753

0.2 0.5793 0.5832 0.5871 0.5910 0.5948 0.5987 0.6026 0.6064 0.6103 0.6141

0.3 0.6179 0.6217 0.6255 0.6293 0.6331 0.6368 0.6406 0.6443 0.6480 0.6517

0.4 0.6554 0.6591 0.6628 0.6664 0.6700 0.6736 0.6772 0.6808 0.6844 0.6879

0.5 0.6915 0.6950 0.6985 0.7019 0.7054 0.7088 0.7123 0.7157 0.7190 0.7224

0.6 0.7257 0.7291 0.7324 0.7357 0.7389 0.7422 0.7454 0.7486 0.7517 0.7549

0.7 0.7580 0.7611 0.7642 0.7673 0.7704 0.7734 0.7764 0.7794 0.7823 0.7852

0.8 0.7881 0.7910 0.7939 0.7967 0.7995 0.8023 0.8051 0.8078 0.8106 0.8133

0.9 0.8159 0.8186 0.8212 0.8238 0.8264 0.8289 0.8315 0.8340 0.8365 0.8389

1.0 0.8413 0.8438 0.8461 0.8485 0.8508 0.8531 0.8554 0.8577 0.8599 0.8621

1.1 0.8643 0.8665 0.8686 0.8708 0.8729 0.8749 0.8770 0.8790 0.8810 0.8830

1.2 0.8849 08869 0.8888 0.8907 0.8925 0.8944 0.8962 0.8980 0.8997 0.9015
 Normal Distribution: Example 1

? Find the value of P of (Z less than 0).

Z 0.0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09

0.0 0.5000 0.5040 0.5080 0.5120 0.5160 0.5199 0.5239 0.5279 0.5319 0.5359

!
0.1 0.5398 0.5348 0.5478 0.5517 0.5557 0.5596 0.5636 0.5675 0.5714 0.5753

0.2 0.5793 0.5832 0.5871 0.5910 0.5948 0.5987 0.6026 0.6064 0.6103 0.6141

0.3 0.6179 0.6217 0.6255 0.6293 0.6331 0.6368 0.6406 0.6443 0.6480 0.6517
There is no need of the table to find the answer once you know that
0.4 0.6554 0.6591the variable
0.6628 Z takes
0.6664
a value0.6700 0.6736
of less than (or equal0.6772
to) zero. 0.6808 0.6844 0.6879

0.5 0.6915 0.6950 0.6985 0.7019 0.7054 0.7088 0.7123 0.7157 0.7190 0.7224

0.6 0.7257 0.7291

The area under the
0.7324
curve is0.7389
0.7357
1. 0.7422 0.7454 0.7486 0.7517 0.7549

0.7 0.7580 0.7611 0.7642 0.7673 0.7704

The curve is symmetrical about Z = 0.0.7734 0.7764
Hence, there 0.7794
is above 0.7823
0.5 (or 50%) 0.7852

0.8 0.7881 0.7910chance of Z = 0 and

0.7939 below 0.5
0.7967 (or 50%)
0.7995 chance of0.8051
0.8023 Z = 0. 0.8078 0.8106 0.8133

0.9 0.8159 0.8186 0.8212 0.8238 0.8264 0.8289 0.8315 0.8340 0.8365 0.8389

1.0 0.8413 0.8438 0.8461 0.8485 0.8508 0.8531 0.8554 0.8577 0.8599 0.8621

1.1 0.8643 0.8665 0.8686 0.8708 0.8729 0.8749 0.8770 0.8790 0.8810 0.8830

1.2 0.8849 08869 0.8888 0.8907 0.8925 0.8944 0.8962 0.8980 0.8997 0.9015
 Normal Distribution: Example 2

? Find the value of P of (Z greater than 1.12).

Z 0.0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09

0.0

0.1
0.5000

0.5398
! 0.5040

0.5348
0.5080

0.5478
The opposite 0.5517
or complement
0.5120

of0.5557
0.5160

an event A0.5596
0.5199 0.5239

occurring0.5636
0.5279

0.5675
is the event
0.5319

0.5714
A not occurring.
0.5359

0.5753

0.2 0.5793 0.5832 0.5871 0.5910 0.5948 0.5987 0.6026 0.6064 0.6103 0.6141
P(not A) = 1 – P(A)
0.3 0.6179 0.6217 0.6255 0.6293 0.6331 0.6368 0.6406 0.6443 0.6480 0.6517
P(Z greater than 1.12) = 1 – P(Z less than 1.12)
0.4 0.6554 0.6591 0.6628 0.6664 0.6700 0.6736 0.6772 0.6808 0.6844 0.6879

0.5 0.6915
Using the table:
0.6950 0.6985 0.7019 0.7054 0.7088 0.7123 0.7157 0.7190 0.7224

0.6 0.7257 P(Z <

0.7291 1.12)0.7324
= 0.8686 0.7357 0.7389 0.7422 0.7454 0.7486 0.7517 0.7549

0.7 0.7580 Hence,

0.7611 P(Z0.7642
> 1.12) = 1 – 0.8686 0.7704
0.7673 = 0.1314 0.7734 0.7764 0.7794 0.7823 0.7852

0.8 0.7881 0.7910 0.7939 0.7967 0.7995 0.8023 0.8051 0.8078 0.8106 0.8133

0.9 0.8159 0.8186 0.8212 0.8238 0.8264 0.8289 0.8315 0.8340 0.8365 0.8389

1.0 0.8413 0.8438 0.8461 0.8485 0.8508 0.8531 0.8554 0.8577 0.8599 0.8621

1.1 0.8643 0.8665 0.8686 0.8708 0.8729 0.8749 0.8770 0.8790 0.8810 0.8830

1.2 0.8849 08869 0.8888 0.8907 0.8925 0.8944 0.8962 0.8980 0.8997 0.9015
 Normal Distribution: Example 3

? Find the value of P of (Z lies between 0 and 1.12).

Z 0.0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09

0.0

0.1
0.5000

0.5398
! 0.5040

0.5348
0.5080

0.5478
0.5120

0.5517
0.5160

0.5557
0.5199

0.5596
0.5239

0.5636
0.5279

0.5675
0.5319

0.5714
0.5359

0.5753

0.2 0.5793 0.5832 0.5871 0.5910 0.5948 0.5987 0.6026 0.6064 0.6103 0.6141

0.3 0.6179 Z falls

0.6217 within an interval.
0.6255 0.6293 0.6331 0.6368 0.6406 0.6443 0.6480 0.6517

0.4 0.6554 Using

0.6591 the table:
0.6628 0.6664 0.6700 0.6736 0.6772 0.6808 0.6844 0.6879

0.5 0.6915 0.6950 0.6985

P(Z lies between 1.120.7019
and 0) = 𝑃0.7054
𝑍 < 1.12 0.7088
− 𝑃 𝑍 > 00.7123
= 0.8686 0.7157 0.7190
− 0.5 = 0.3686 0.7224

0.6 0.7257 0.7291 0.7324 0.7357 0.7389 0.7422 0.7454 0.7486 0.7517 0.7549

0.7 0.7580 0.7611 0.7642 0.7673 0.7704 0.7734 0.7764 0.7794 0.7823 0.7852

0.8 0.7881 0.7910 0.7939 0.7967 0.7995 0.8023 0.8051 0.8078 0.8106 0.8133

0.9 0.8159 0.8186 0.8212 0.8238 0.8264 0.8289 0.8315 0.8340 0.8365 0.8389

1.0 0.8413 0.8438 0.8461 0.8485 0.8508 0.8531 0.8554 0.8577 0.8599 0.8621

1.1 0.8643 0.8665 0.8686 0.8708 0.8729 0.8749 0.8770 0.8790 0.8810 0.8830

1.2 0.8849 08869 0.8888 0.8907 0.8925 0.8944 0.8962 0.8980 0.8997 0.9015
 Normal Distribution: Example 4

?
Suppose the time taken to resolve customer complaint follows a normal distribution with the
mean value of 250 hours and standard deviation value of 23 hours. What is the probability that
a problem resolution will take more than 300 hours?

!
 Normal Distribution: Example 4

?
Suppose the time taken to resolve customer complaint follows a normal distribution with the
mean value of 250 hours and standard deviation value of 23 hours. What is the probability that
a problem resolution will take more than 300 hours?

Given: Y = 300; µ = 250; σ = 23

! METHOD 1:

=NORM.DIST(value of interest, average, standard deviation, cumulative distribution?)

=NORM.DIST( 300, 250,23, TRUE) = 0.985 = 98.5%

1 – 98.5% = 1.5%
 Normal Distribution: Example 4

?
Suppose the time taken to resolve customer complaint follows a normal distribution with the
mean value of 250 hours and standard deviation value of 23 hours. What is the probability that
a problem resolution will take more than 300 hours?

Given: Y = 300; µ = 250; σ = 23

! METHOD 2:

(Y−µ) (300−250)
Using the Standard Z formula: Z = = = 2.17
σ 23

● The Z value of 2.17 covers an area of 0.98499 under itself.

● The probability that a problem can be resolved in less than 300 hours is 98.5%

● The chances of a problem resolution taking more than 300 hours is 1.5% (1 - 0.985)
 Normal Distribution: Example 4

?
Suppose the time taken to resolve customer complaint follows a normal distribution with the
mean value of 250 hours and standard deviation value of 23 hours. What is the probability that
a problem resolution will take more than 300 hours?

!
Given: Y = 300; µ = 250; σ = 23

METHOD 3:

=NORM.S.DIST(Z score, cumulative distribution?)

=NORM.S.DIST( 2.17, TRUE) = 98.5%

1 - 98.5 = 1.5%
 Chi-Square Distribution

Chi-square distribution (chi-squared or χ² distribution) with k-1 degrees of freedom is the

distribution of the sum of the squares of k independent standard normal random variables.

Used in inferential statistics

Degree of freedom is k-1,

where k is the sample size

Used in hypothesis test

 Chi-Square Distribution: Formula

fO − fe 2
2
χcalculated ==
fe
Where,
χ2calculated () = chi-square index
fO = observed frequency
fe = expected frequency
 T-Distribution

Used when the sample Lower at the mean and

size is less than 30 higher at the ends

Used for hypothesis testing

Used when the population
standard deviation is not known

Used when the population is Symmetrical in shape but flatter

approximately normal than the normal distribution
 F-Distribution

The F-distribution is a ratio of two Chi-square distributions. A specific F-distribution is

denoted by the degrees of freedom for the numerator Chi-square and the degrees of
freedom for the denominator Chi-square.

• Calculates and observes if the

standard deviations or variance for
two processes are significantly
different
 F-Distribution: Formula

2
S1
Fcalculated = 2
S2
Where,
S1 and S2 = standard deviations of the two samples
● If Fcalculated is 1, there is no difference in the variance
● The larger variance should be placed in numerator and the smaller value in the
denominator
● df1 = n1 – 1 and df2 = n2 – 1)
 Fun Facts

Run data through a normality plot to

There are over 100 see if it is normally distributed first.
distribution models.

DID YOU
KNOW…?

The normal distribution seems to be Data that are influenced by many small
everywhere from temperature and unrelated random effects are
fluctuations, student test scores, and approximately normally distributed.
time taken to complete a task. It is the
average result of other factors.
Central Limit Theorem
 Meaning of Theorem

A theorem is a general proposition not self-evident but proved by a chain of reasoning.

It is a truth established by means of accepted truths.

Example

Pythagoras’ Theorem

In a right-angled triangle, the square of the

long side is equal to the sum of the squares of
the other two sides.
 Central Limit Theorem (CLT)

CLT takes any data, with enough samples, and applies normal distribution principles.
 Central Limit Theorem (CLT)

The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) states that the means of random samples drawn
from any distribution with mean µ and variance σ2 will have an approximately
normal distribution with a mean equal to µ and a variance equal to σ2 / n, as n
increases greater than 30.
 Importance of CLT

!
CLT implies that the distribution of the sample
means will approach a normal distribution
regardless of what the population distribution
looks like.

! CLT makes probability statements about the

possible range of values the sample mean may
take.

! The normal distribution has a useful property

called the Empirical Rule.
The Empirical Rule

As a Six Sigma practitioner remember the CLT forms the basis of inferential statistics.
 How CLT Works: Illustration

The probability of the dice landing on any one side is equal to the probability of it landing
on any of the other five sides.
 How CLT Works: Experiment 1

500 times

Source: https://www.minitab.com/uploadedFiles/Content/Academic/CentralLimitTheorem.pdf
 How CLT Works: Experiment 2

2 rolls

500 trials
 How CLT Works: Experiment 3

Average of 30 rolls per trial

Average of 10 rolls per trial

Average of 5 rolls per trial

 How CLT Works: Experiment 3

The central limit theorem states that for a large enough n, X-bar can be approximated by
a normal distribution with mean µ and standard deviation σ/√n.
 How CLT Works: Conclusion

The population mean for a six-sided die is:

(1+2+3+4+5+6)/6 = 3.5

The population standard deviation = 1.708

Average of the 30 averages = 3.49

Standard deviation 1.708/√30 = 0.31 Standard deviation = 0.30

 Good to Know

The normal model for the sample mean is good when the sample has at least 30 independent observations.

As the sample size increases, the mean has more of a normal distribution.

Caution

Observations that are independent may not occur consecutively.

If more outliers are present, it is likely that more than 30 observations will be needed to use
the normal distribution.
 Key Takeaways

Probability, statistics, and inferential statistics describe the

parameters for the classes of distributions.

A theorem is a general proposition not self-evident but proved

by a chain of reasoning.

CLT takes any data, with enough samples, and applies normal
distribution principles.
Knowledge Check
Knowledge
Check
What is the similarity between the Binomial and Poisson Distributions?
1

A. Focus on defective items

B. A part of the discrete distribution family

C. The calculation of the average or expected value

D. The number of trials tend towards infinity

 Knowledge
Check
What is the similarity between the Binomial and Poisson Distributions?
1

A. Focus on defective items

B. A part of the discrete distribution family

C. The calculation of the average or expected value

D. The number of trials tend towards infinity

The correct answer is B

A Binomial is a discrete distribution that focuses on defective items, as a small number of trials and the calculation
for the expected value is n*p; whereas the Poisson is a discrete distribution that focuses on defects, the number of
trials tends towards infinity, and the expected value is λ.
Knowledge
Check
What is the probability of P(Z<2.4)?
2

A. 99.18%

B. 0.81%

C. 95%

D. 5%
 Knowledge
Check
What is the probability of P(Z<2.4)?
2

A. 99.18%

B. 0.81%

C. 95%

D. 5%

The correct answer is A

Looking up the Z value of 2.4 in a left-tailed Z-table gives the probability of 99.18%.
Knowledge
Check
Which distribution is based on the Bernoulli process to predict sample behavior?
3

A. Poisson

B. Binomial

C. F-distribution

D. Normal
 Knowledge
Check
Which distribution is based on the Bernoulli process to predict sample behavior?
3

A. Poisson

B. Binomial

C. F-distribution

D. Normal

The correct answer is B

The binomial distribution is based on the scenario where the output has only two options and probability remains
consistent over time. This scenario is called the Bernoulli process.
Knowledge
Check If the output value is 45, with process average of 40 and standard deviation of 2, what
4 is the Z score value?

A. 5

B. 2

C. 2.5

D. 3
 Knowledge
Check If the output value is 45, with process average of 40 and standard deviation of 2, what
4 is the Z score value?

A. 5

B. 2

C. 2.5

D. 3

The correct answer is C

(Y−µ) (45−40)
Z= = = 2.5
σ 2
Knowledge
Check Given a normal distribution, what is the probability of having a Z score value smaller
5 than 2.5?

A. 0.6%

B. 99.4%

C. 90.2%

D. 2.5%
 Knowledge
Check Given a normal distribution, what is the probability of having a Z score value smaller
5 than 2.5?

A. 0.6%

B. 99.4%

C. 90.2%

D. 2.5%

The correct answer is B

: Using a left tailed Z-table or the Excel function “= NORM.S.DIST() will provide a result of 99.4%.
Knowledge
Check The central limit theorem states that the means of random samples drawn from any
distribution with mean µ and variance σ2 will have an approximately ______ distribution
6 with a mean equal to µ and a variance equal to σ2 / n, as n increases greater than ___.

A. Normal, 10

B. T, 30

C. Normal, 25

D. Normal, 30
 Knowledge
Check The central limit theorem states that the means of random samples drawn from any
distribution with mean µ and variance σ2 will have an approximately ______ distribution
6 with a mean equal to µ and a variance equal to σ2 / n, as n increases greater than ___.

A. Normal, 10

B. T, 30

C. Normal, 25

D. Normal, 30

The correct answer is D

The central limit theorem states that the means of random samples drawn from any distribution with mean µ and
variance σ2 will have an approximately normal distribution with a mean equal to µ and a variance equal to σ2 / n, as n
increases greater than 30.