Intro and literature review
Intro and literature review
Introduction
The global Last Glacial Maximum (gLGM) represents the time period when
last glacial. The timing of the gLGM is identified as the interval covering ∼27–
the ice sheets reached their maximum extent across the world during the
global mean sea level by ∼125 m (Clark et al., 2009; Harrison et al., 2019).
2020; Davies et al., 2020; Clark et al., 2021), which leads to a lowering of
Thus, the gLGM has been the focus for studying climate-glaciation
interactions across the world.
Glaciers are declining globally and their gradual loss of glaciers is attributed
to the phase of warming that our planet has been experiencing since the
Little Ice Age, particularly since the Industrial Revolution (Ming et al., 2015,
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 2023). The rate of
ongoing warming is radically associated with the increasing amounts of
carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. According to the Global Monitoring
Laboratory (NOAA/GML), the atmospheric CO2 level has soared from 280
parts per million (ppm) to 417 ppm from 1750 CE (pre-industrial period) to
May 2021 CE (present; Tocco et al., 2021). Given this, a continued glacier
mass loss throughout the twenty-first century is projected, and under the
RCP8.5 climate change scenarios, the mean glacier volume loss is estimated
to be −64 ± 5 % by the end of the century and/or even higher (75 %) for the
Hindu Kush Himalayan region (Jones et al., 2019, Shannon et al., 2019).
Several studies have found that the Himalayas have warmed faster in recent
decades than the adjacent lowlands (Bhutiyani et al., 2007; Negi et al., 2018,
Sabin et al., 2020). This increased warming is threatening the existence of all
the Himalayan cryospheric components. Increased loss of glacial ice and
hence a negative mass balance have been recorded from almost all the
sectors of the Himalayas, and future model predictions also show an
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The indicators of climate change are very evident over Himalaya (Beniston,
2003, Kang et al., 2010, Romshoo et al., 2011, Wang and Chen, 2014) and
these changes have exacerbated glacier recession (Akhtar et al., 2008,
Immerzeel et al., 2010, Romshoo et al., 2015). It, therefore, becomes
imperative to understand the magnitude of the climatic changes and how
these changes influence the cryospheric and hydrological processes in the
region. Recent studies have demonstrated that the glacier cover in the
Kashmir Himalaya, India is declining at an increasing rate compared to other
parts of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) (Kääb et al., 2012, Murtaza and
Romshoo, 2016). Hence, it is very obvious that the Himalaya may lose the
glacier cover in response to the climate change which will have serious
impacts on the regional hydrology (Barnett et al., 2005, Cogley, 2011, Nepal
et al., 2014). However, some studies suggest that Himalayan glaciers,
especially in the Karakorum region, are stable (Bahuguna et al., 2014,
Ganjoo and Koul, 2013, Raina, 2009). The past glaciological, climatological
and hydrological studies in the Himalaya have focused, on spatio-temporal
changes in glacial extents (Frey et al., 2012, Kääb et al., 2014), mass balance
(Berthier et al., 2007, Brahmbhatt et al., 2012), snow cover dynamics (Hall,
2012, Rittger et al., 2013), hydrological modelling (Naz et al., 2014, Nepal et
al., 2014), climate change impacts (Hock, 2014, Sorg et al., 2012) and
anthropogenic activities (Ginot et al., 2014, Kaspari et al., 2014, Ming et al.,
2009). Despite the vulnerability of Kashmir Himalayan glaciers to the
environmental changes, very few glaciological studies have been carried out
to understand the glacier recession in the region.
Several studies have found that the Himalayas have warmed faster in recent
decades than the adjacent lowlands (Bhutiyani et al., 2007; Negi et al., 2018,
Sabin et al., 2020). This increased warming is threatening the existence of all
the Himalayan cryospheric components. Increased loss of glacial ice and
hence a negative mass balance have been recorded from almost all the
sectors of the Himalayas, and future model predictions also show an
alarming situation in terms of glacier sustenance after the 21 st century
(Beniston et al., 2018, Hock et al., 2019a, Hock et al., 2019b, Rounce et al.,
2023). The depletion of the Himalayan cryosphere and its associated water
resources is deemed so severe that it may lead to international water
disputes and conflicts (McDowell et al., 2013, Bocchiola et al., 2017, Milner et
al., 2017, Schmidt and Nüsser, 2017).
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Despite the crucial role of the Himalayan glaciers for future water
availability, sea-level rise, regional climate and hazards associated with the
melting of glaciers, the field-based glaciological studies are few and far
between (Dyurgerov and Meier, 2005), owing to the remoteness, rugged
terrain and security concerns of the region (Bolch et al., 2012). Inconsistent
reports on the status and behaviour of glaciers in the Himalaya reflect
insufficient information, knowledge gaps and ambiguity (Cruz et al., 2007,
Cogley et al., 2010, Rashid and Abdullah, 2016). Only 15 of the 32,392
glaciers in the Indian Himalaya (SAC, 2010), have been investigated using in
situ glacier mass balance (MB) measurements and majority of these
observations are limited to a few years between 1975 and 1990 (Singh et al.,
2018, Vincent et al., 2013). Chhota Shigri is the only glacier in the Indian
Himalaya that has been studied for mass balance for more than a decade
al., 2020), in situ mass balance data of only 6 glaciers are available; 4 in the
Kashmir Himalaya, one in the Zanskar range (GSI, 2001, Kaul, 1986,
Romshoo et al., 2022b, Sangewar and Siddique, 2006, Srivastava, 2001), and
one in Ladakh mountain range (Soheb et al., 2020). These observations,
however, are brief; 1-year mass balance for the Kolahoi and Shishram, 9
years for the Nehnar glacier in the Kashmir Himalaya, 2 years for the Rulung
in the Zanskar and 5 years for Stok Glacier in the Ladakh mountain range.
Glaciers are solid reservoirs that supply water to the rivers. In the arid and
semi-arid regions of Central Asia, glacial meltwater is an extremely important
source of water recharge for inland rivers (Xu et al., 2020). Changes
in mountain glaciers are sensitive indicators of global climate change.
Melting glaciers have changed the spatial and temporal distribution of water
resources in inland river basins, resulting in extreme sudden disasters such
as floods and glacial lake outbursts (Leclercq et al., 2011, ). In addition,
ablation and accumulation of mountain glaciers can seriously impact
downstream ecosystems. Thus, it is important to monitor changes in
mountainous glaciers in the upstream regions of inland river basins over long
periods of time.
Climate change is of great concern the world over, particularly regarding the
effect of humanity on the existing environment and vice versa. Under
continued warming over the last several decades, alpine glacier retreat has
accelerated. Surface melting has occurred even on high-altitude glaciers (Yao
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T D, et al, 2008) . Moreover, about 75% of the fresh water of the world comes
from glaciers (IPCC, 1996) , thus retreating glaciers will have a strong
influence on the regional hydrologic balance and economic sustainability.
Climate warming, regardless of whether it is caused by anthropogenic factors
or by nature, has led to strong global glacier recession. In fact, changes in
alpine glaciers are one of the best natural indicators of climate change
because a small change in climatic parameters will result in pronounced
geometric changes in glacier shape and size. Many studies show that strong
glacial wastage has been the major trend (Dyrgerov M B, Meier M F , 2000)
over the period from 1993 to 2003 during which time sea level has risen
about 0.77 ± 0.18 mm as a result, primarily, of that glacier melting (IPCC.
Climate change 2007).
The general warming trend during the 20th century and into the 21st century
is now well documented. Scientific evidence verifies that Earth’s globally
averaged surface temperature is increasing. The Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) report (Solomon et al., 2007) suggests that human
activities are contributing significantly to observed changes in the Earth
system. Although not all regions have warmed, the globally averaged
temperature has increased ~0.7˚C since 1900 ( Hansen et al., 2006). The
best interpretation of proxy records from borehole temperatures, stable
isotopes from ice cores, tree-ring data, etc., suggests that the 1990s was the
warmest decade in the last 1800 years ( Mann et al., 2004).
Glaciers are sensitive climate proxies and variations in their length, area and
volume provide insights into past climate variability, placing contemporary
changes into a long-term context (Hoelzle et al., 2003). A strong
argument for the sensitivity and reliability of the glacier record is made by
their relatively uniform retreat to contemporary warming (Vaughan et al.,
2013).
cloudiness (by 30%) or precipitation (by 25%) (IPCC, 2001). In several areas,
the climatic anomalies have been strongly influenced by the El Niño-
Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The warm (El Niño) phase of ENSO,
influencing the phase of precipitation at the altitudes of the glacier
accumulation zone has become more intense, more frequent, and more
long-lasting in recent decades (IPCC, 2001).
The high mountains ranges from entire world covered by glaciers are also
inventoried by scientists in aim to understand which the impact of climate
changes on extensions of ice mass is and the possible floods that may occur
due to ice melting are checked. Recent studies contest that climate change
affects drastically and direct the glaciers, ecosystems, and natural systems
because of increasing in CO2 and emissions of greenhouse (Cox et al., 2000).
Indirectly, the melting of ice is negative influenced by recent climate
warming. Nistor & Petcu (2014) show the role of glaciers melting in the
ecosystem changes in theirs study about Prince William Sound landscape,
South Alaska. Together with Global warming, the industrial black carbon
contributes at the acceleration of Alpine glaciers retreat (Painter et al.,
2013).
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The Himalaya, the youngest and fragile mountain system of the earth, has
direct influence on climate control, regional hydrology and environment of
our subcontinent. About 17% of its mountain area is covered by glaciers
(Dobhal et al., 1999). Fresh water resources in the Himalayas are stored in
the form of glaciers. Change in climate directly affects glacier mass and
thereby, the water resources. Melting from snow bound areas during the
summer forms an important source of many perennial rivers originating in
the higher Himalaya. Most of the glaciers in the mountain region of the
Himalayas have receded subsequently during the last century, in response to
climatic warming. Recent studies have shown wide-scale retreat of glaciers
not only in the Himalayas but also in Alps, Andes and Rocky mountains
(Kulkarni et al., 2002). Investigation carried out in the Himalaya suggests
that almost all glaciers are retreating and annual rate of retreat is varying
from 16 to 35m (Dobhal et al., 1999).
The Himalayan glaciers are not only a crucial resource of water, but they also
serve as an excellent indicator of climate change (Immerzeel et al., 2010). It
has been speculated in recent years, that the Himalayan glaciers are
retreating faster than other glaciers of the world (Cruz et al., 2007).
Discharge from glacier melt water contributes to overall river runoff in the
Himalayan region and has important contribution to drinking water, irrigation
and hydropower generation for millions of people living downstream (Singh
et al., 2016). Owing to the large geographic extent and complex topography
along with the variable climatic conditions across the Himalaya has resulted
in various set of glacier response (retreat or advance).
Between 1983 and 2012, average global temperature has risen 0.85 ± 0.2°C
and future projections anticipate further warming, regardless of actions to
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mitigate CO2 emission (IPCC, 2014). The rise in global temperature has
resulted in significant global ice shrinkage since 1961 (IPCC, 2014). As global
temperatures continue to rise, with few exceptions, glaciers will continue to
retreat, and some will disappear altogether (Radić et al., 2014). The impacts
of climate change and glacier shrinkage pose a critical threat to mountain
and coastal communities worldwide as freshwater resources dwindle,
oversteepened slopes and proglacial basins destabilize and fail
catastrophically, and sea levels rise. Identifying the signatures of how
glaciers and landscapes respond to rapid climate change is therefore critical
to predicting the magnitude of these hazards in the coming century.
Literature Review
cooling, the glacier area increased by ∼78 × 10³ km² and the
glaciers responded significantly to climatic changes. For every 1°C of
of ∼21 × 10³ km² and a ΔELA by ∼64 m. The modeled gLGM climate
precipitation without temperature change led to a glacier area increase
8. Bin Zhou , Zou Q.et.al 2024 in their study “A novel framework for
predicting glacial lake outburst debris flows in the Himalayas amidst
climate change” Indicates that due to global warming, Himalayan
glaciers are projected to lose 70% to 86% of their mass by 2100,
causing an increase in glacial lakes. Consequently, the occurrence of
glacial lake outburst debris flow (GLODF) is expected to rise
significantly, posing severe threats to downstream communities.
Temperature and precipitation increases are identified as key drivers of
these changes, with the Western Himalayas and the China-Nepal
border being high-risk areas for future GLODF occurrences. This
underscores the urgent need for improved disaster management and
cross-border cooperation.
15. Irfan Rashid, Ulfat Majeed ,Nadeem Ahmad Najar ,Imtiyaz Ahmad
Bhat 2021 in their study “Retreat of Machoi Glacier, Kashmir Himalaya
between 1972 and 2019 using remote sensing methods and field
observations” examined that Machoi Glacier in Jammu and Kashmir has
lost about 29% of its area from 1972 to 2019, with a frontal retreat of
500 meters. The glacier’s surface lowered by 43.7 meters between
2000 and 2011. Cryoconite holes and light-absorbing impurities
correlate with altitude, affecting glacier melt. Seasonal albedo trends
showed a decrease during winter. Increasing aerosol trends from 1980
to 2018 have impacted glacier dynamics. These changes severely
affect streamflow, hydropower, and agriculture in the region,
necessitating more detailed in-situ data to understand their full impact.
16. Muhammad Mannan Afzal, Wang X et.al 2023 in their study
“Hydrological and dynamical response of glaciers to climate change
based on their dimensions in the Hunza Basin, Karakoram” analysed
that glaciers of different sizes show varied responses to climate
change. The study found that smaller glaciers (Z5/Z6) are highly
sensitive to summer temperatures and will lose up to 90% of their
volume by 2100, while larger glaciers (Z1) will lose about 10%. Basin
glacier runoff is expected to increase until 2060 before decreasing.
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retreated after ∼13 kyr BP, indicating a warming of the southern mid-
extents and snow lines. The study finds that New Zealand’s glaciers
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