Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management NOTES
Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management NOTES
Investment Analysis
and
Portfolio Management
COURSE INSTRUCTOR:
Hyacinth Chebangang
(DIPET II, M.Sc. Ph.D)
675428084/694658604
Chebanganghgmail.com
INTRODUCTION TO INVESTMENT
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Companies issue securities from time to time to raise funds in order to meet their
financial requirements for promotion, modernization, expansion, and
diversification or for regular working capital programs. These securities are issued
directly to the investors (both individual as well as institutional) through the
mechanism called primary market or new issue market. The primary market refers
to the set-up which helps the industry to raise funds by issuing different types of
securities.
The money a person earns is partly spent and the rest saved for meeting future
expenses. Instead of keeping the savings idle he may like to use savings in order to
get return on it in the future. This is called Investment.
The term investment refers to exchange of money wealth into some tangible
wealth. The money wealth here refers to the money (savings) which an investor
has and the term tangible wealth refers to the assets the investor acquires by
sacrificing the money wealth. By investing, an investor commits the present funds
to one or more assets to be held for some time in expectation of some future return
in terms of interest or dividend and capital gain.
Definition: “Investment may be defined as an activity that commits funds in any
financial/marketable or physical form in the present with an expectation of
receiving additional return in the future.” For example, a Bank deposit is a
financial asset, the purchase of gold is a physical asset and the purchase of bonds
and shares is marketable asset. “Investment is the commitment of current funds in
anticipation of receiving larger inflow of funds in future, the difference being the
income”.
An investor hopes to be compensated for
(i) forgoing present consumption,
(ii) (ii) for the effects of inflation, and
(iii) (iii) for taking a risk. Features:
There are three basic features common to all types of investment:
1. There is a commitment of present funds.
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(c) Low priority objectives: These objectives have low priority in investing.
These objectives are not painful. After investing in high priorities assets,
investors can invest in these low priority assets. For example, provision for tour,
domestic appliance, etc.
(d) Money making objectives: Investors put their surplus money in this
kind of investment. Their objective is to maximize wealth. Usually, the investors
invest in shares of companies which provides capital appreciation apart from
regular income from dividend.
Other objectives of investment:
1. RETURN:
Investors expect a good rate of return from their investments. Return from
investment may be in terms of revenue return or income (interest or dividend)
and/or in terms of capital return (capital gain i.e. difference between the selling
price and the purchasing price). The net return is the sum of revenue return and
capital return.
a) Expected Return: The expected return refers to the anticipated return for some
future period. The expected return is estimated on the basis of actual returns in the
past periods. b) Realized Returns: The realized return is the net actual return
earned by the investor over the holding period. It refers to the actual return over
some past period.
2. RISK: Variation in return i.e., the chance that the actual return from an
investment would differ from its expected return is referred to as the risk.
Measuring risk is important because minimizing risk and maximizing return are
interrelated objectives. There are two types of risk i.e. Systematic Risk and
Unsystematic Risk which is discussed in detail later in this chapter.
liquidity. Cash and money market instruments are more liquid than the capital
market instruments which in turn are more liquid than the real estate investments.
For ex, money deposited in savings a/c and fixed deposit a/c in a bank is more
liquid than the investment made in shares or debentures of a company.
4. SAFETY: An investor should take care that the amount of investment is safe.
The safety of an investment depends upon several factors such as the economic
conditions, organization where investment is made, earnings stability of that
organization, etc. Guarantee or collateral available against the investment should
also be taken care of.
Bonds issued by central banks are completely safe investments as compared
with the bonds of a private sector company.
Likewise it is more safer to invest in debenture than of preference shares of a
company
Accordingly, it is safer to invest in preference shares than of equity shares of
a company, the reason being that in case of company liquidation, order of
payment is debenture holders, preference share holds and then equity share
holders.
5. TAX BENEFITS: Investments differ with respect to tax treatment of initial
investment, return from investment and redemption proceeds. For example,
investment in Public Provident Fund (PPF) has tax benefits in respect of all the
three characteristics. Equity Shares entails exemption from tax ability of dividend
income but the transactions of sale and purchase are subject to Securities
Transaction Tax or Tax on Capital gains. Sometimes, the tax treatment depends
upon the type of the investor. The performance of any investment decision should
be measured by its after tax rate of return. For example, between 8.5% PPF and
8.5% Debentures, PPF should be preferred as it is exempt from tax while debenture
is subject to tax in the hands of the investors.
6. REGULARITY OF INCOME:
The prime objective of making every investment is to earn a stable return. If
returns are not stable, then the investment is termed as risky. For example, return
(i.e. interest) from Savings a/c, fixed deposit a/c, Bonds & Debentures are stable
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but the expected dividends from equity share are not stable. The rate of dividend
on equity shares may fluctuate depending upon the earnings of the company
1.3 INVESTMENT AND SPECULATION
“Speculation, is an activity, quite contrary to its literal meaning, in which a person
assumes high risks, often without regard for the safety of his invested principal, to
achieve large capital gains.” The time span in which the gain is sought to be made
is usually very short. Investment involves putting money into an assets which is
not necessarily in order to enjoy a series of returns. The investor sacrifice some
money today in anticipation of a financial return in future. He indulges in a bit of
speculation. There is an element of speculation involved in all investment
decisions. However, it does not mean that all investment are speculative by nature.
Genuine investments are carefully thought out decisions. On the other hand,
speculative investments are not carefully thought-out decisions. They are based on
tips and rumors. An investment can be distinguished from speculation in three
ways–risk, capital gain and time period. Risk has definite financial meaning it is
a possibility of incurring a loss in a financial transaction. Investment involves
limited risk while speculation is considered as an investment of funds with high
risk. Speculation involves buying a security at a low price and selling at a high
price to make a capital gain. Investment involves longer-term allocation of funds,
whereas speculation involves holding a security for a short-term and trading
quickly for earning higher gain. Speculation involves a higher level of risk and a
more uncertain expectation of return. Investments are not risk-free but the risk can
be calculated. The expected return is consistent with the risk of investment.
In speculation, there is an investment of funds with an expectation of some return
in the form of capital profit resulting from the price change and sale of investment.
Speculation is relatively a short term investment. The degree of uncertainty of
future return is definitely higher in case of speculation than in investment. In case
of investment, the investor has an intention of keeping the investment for some
period whereas in speculation, the investor looks for an opportunity of making a
profit and “exit- out” by selling the investment.
FACTOR INVESTMMENT SPECULATION
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for an investment instrument. The higher the demand, the easier it is to find a
buyer. Liquidity of an investment provides security to the investor that the money
would be available when needed. By way of example, Mrs. Rupiah may sell the
shares invested in a company any time because they have yielded high returns to
pay off a house loan
2. Age: The ability of an individual to take risk is linked with his/her age.
Typically, the higher the age of an individual, the low is the risk appetite or
tolerance.
3. Taxes: The government declares tax benefits for citizens through rebates,
exemptions etc. and these should be considered while making any investment. For
example, under Sec 80CCC an investor gets tax benefit for his investments in
ELSS (Equity Linked Savings Schemes). Investors need to take a call between the
tax benefit and returns these schemes offer. Other options may not have a tax
benefit but may be more lucrative in terms of returns.
4. Need for Regular Income: Investors may have a need to obtain periodical or
regular returns and this will influence their decision to invest in such instruments
5. Time Horizon: As explained before, the time horizon will vary from short term
(as short as one day) to long term which could be a few months to several years
6. Risk Tolerance: Investment decisions are always a tradeoff between the risks
appetites of the investor versus the returns expected. This relation has already been
explained.
7. Lack of time: Some investment instruments like equity (shares), mutual funds,
real estate, and insurance products need a fair amount of analysis to ensure that the
return profile is understood. Sometimes investors, typically professionals like
doctors or lawyers who are interested in these investments, may not be able to
spare the required time for performing the analysis. They may then seek the help of
an intermediary or an advisor. The advisor’s investment objectives may or may not
match with those of the investor and this in itself constitutes a risk. Therefore,
there is no excuse to blindly relying on someone’s advice without possessing
reasonable knowledge of the investment
8. Price Discovery: Several assets such as shares are very active market
instruments and may be volatile. This creates uncertainty in the minds of the
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buyer as to the direction the price will move towards if they buy. Will it come
down leading to a loss or go up resulting in profit?
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INVESTMENT ALTERNATIVES
Physical assets like real estate, gold/jewellery, commodities etc. and/or Financial
assets such as fixed deposits with banks, small saving instruments with post
offices, insurance/provident/pension fund etc. or Marketable assets - securities
market related instruments like shares, bonds, debentures, derivatives, mutual fund
etc.
CLASSIFICATIONS OF INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES:
1. DIRECT INVESTING: Direct investing involves the buying and selling of
securities by investors themselves. The securities may be capital market securities
such as shares, debentures or derivative products, or money market instruments
such as Treasury Bills, Commercial Bills, Commercial Papers, Certificates of
Deposits, or real assets such as land and building, house, etc or non-financial assets
such as gold, silver, art, antiques, etc.
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2. INDIRECT INVESTING: Investors may not directly invest and manage the
portfolio, rather they buy the units of funds that hold various types of securities on
behalf of the investors example, Mutual funds, Public Provident fund (PPF),
National Savings Scheme (NSS), National Savings Certificate (NSC), and
investment in Insurance Company schemes
INVESTMENT PROCESS
1. Investment Policy:
The government or the investor before proceeding into investment, formulates the
policy for the systematic functioning. The essential ingredients of the policy are the
investible funds, objectives and the knowledge about the investment alternatives
and market.
a) Investible funds: The entire investment procedure revolves around the
availability of investible funds. The fund may be generated through savings or
borrowings. If the funds are borrowed, the investor has to be extra careful in the
selection of investment alternatives. The return should be higher than the interest
he pays. Mutual funds invest their owner’s money in securities.
b) Objectives: The objectives are framed on the premises of the required rate of
return, need for regularity of income, risk perception and the need for liquidity.
The risk taker’s objective is to earn high rate of return in the form of capital
appreciation, whereas the primary objective of the risk averse (person not
interested in taking risk) is the safety of the principal.
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Industry Analysis: The industries that contribute to the output of the major
segments of the economy vary in their growth rates and their overall contribution
to economic activity. Some industries grow faster than the GDP and are expected
to continue in their growth. For example, IT industry has higher growth rate than
the GDP in 1998. The economic significance and the growth potential of the
industry have to be analysed.
Company Analysis: The Company’s earnings, profitability, operating efficiency,
capital structure and management have to be analysed. These factors have direct
bearing on the stock prices and the return of the investors. Appreciation of the
stock value is a function of the performance of the company. Company with high
product market share is able to create wealth to the investors in the form of the
capital appreciation.
3. Valuation:
The valuation helps the investor to determine the return and risk expected from an
investment in the common stock. Intrinsic Value: Intrinsic value is the present
value of securities of all future cash inflows by using simple discounting models.
Future Value: Future value of the securities could be estimated by using a simple
statistical technique like trend analysis. The analysis of the historical behaviour of
the price enables the investor to predict the future value.
Construction of Portfolio: A portfolio is a combination of securities. The
portfolio is constructed in such a manner to meet the investor’s goals and
objectives.
Diversification: The main objective of diversification is the reduction of risk in
the loss of capital and income. A diversified portfolio is comparatively less risky
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SYSTEMATIC RISK It affects the entire market. It indicates that the entire
market is moving in particular direction. It affects the economic, political,
sociological changes. This risk is further subdivided into:
1. Market risk 2. Interest rate risk 3. Purchasing power risk
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1. Market risk: Jack Clark Francis defined market risk as “portion of total
variability in return caused by the alternating forces of bull and bear markets.
When the security index moves upward for a significant period of time, it is bull
market and if the index declines from the peak to market low point is called
troughs i.e. bearish for significant period of time.
The forces that affect the stock market are tangible and intangible events. The
tangible events such as earthquake, war, political uncertainty and fall in the value
of currency. Intangible events are related to market psychology.
For example – In 1996, the political turmoil and recession in the economy resulted
in the fall of share prices and the small investors lost faith in market. There was a
rush to sell the shares and stocks that were floated in primary market were not
received well.
2. Interest rate risk: It is the variation in single period rates of return caused by
the fluctuations in the market interest rate. Mostly it affects the price of the bonds,
debentures and stocks. The fluctuations in the interest rates are caused by the
changes in the government monetary policy and changes in treasury bills and the
government bonds.
Interest rates not only affect the security traders but also the corporate bodies who
carry their business with borrowed funds. The cost of borrowing would increase
and a heavy outflow of profit would take place in the form of interest to the capital
borrowed. This would lead to reduction in earnings per share and consequent fall
in price of shares.
3. Purchasing power risk: Variations in returns are due to loss of purchasing
power of currency. Inflation is the reason behind the loss of purchasing power. The
inflation may be, “demand-pull or cost-push “.
Demand pull inflation, the demand for goods and services are in excess of their
supply. The supply cannot be increased unless there is an expansion of labour force
or machinery for production. The equilibrium between demand and supply is
attained at a higher price level.
Cost-push inflation, the rise in price is caused by the increase in the cost. The
increase in cost of raw material, labour, etc makes the cost of production high and
ends in high price level. The working force tries to make the corporate to share the
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It is the variability of the income to the equity capital due to the debt capital.
Financial risk is associated with the capital structure of the firm. Capital structure
of firm consists of equity bonds and borrowed funds. The interest payment affects
the payments that are due to the equity investors. The use of debt with the owned
funds to increase the return to the shareholders is known as financial leverage.
The new issue market does not include certain other sources of new long
term external finance, such as loans from financial institutions. Borrowers in
the new issue market may be raising capital for converting private capital
into public capital; this is known as "going public."
The financial assets sold can only be redeemed by the original holder.
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Shares; The stock of a business is divided into shares, the total of which must be
stated at the time of business formation. Given the total amount of money invested
in the business, a share has a certain declared face value, commonly known as the
par value of a share.
Stock certificate Ownership of shares is documented by issuance of a stock
certificate. A stock certificate is a legal document that specifies the amount of
shares owned by the shareholder, and other specifics of the shares, such as the par
value, if any, or the class of the shares.
Dematerialization: Dematerialization is the process by which physical certificates
of an investor are converted to an equivalent number of securities in electronic
form and credited to the investor account with his Depository Participant (DP).
Listing of Securities: Listing means admission of securities of an issuer to trading
privileges (dealings) on a stock exchange through a formal agreement. The prime
objective of admission to dealings on the exchange is to provide liquidity and
marketability to securities, as also to provide a mechanism for effective control and
supervision of trading.
Stock Exchange; Stocks (Shares, equity) are traded in stock exchange. India has
two big stock Exchanges (Bombay Stock Exchange - BSE and National Stock
Exchange - NSE) and few small exchanges like Japan Stock Exchange, Lagos
Stock Exchange, Douala Stock exchang etc. Click here to see the list of Stock
Exchanges in India Investor can trade stocks in any of the stock exchange in India.
Stock Broker Investor requires a Stock Broker to buy and sell shares in stock
exchanges (BSE, NSE etc.). Stock Broker are registered member of stock
exchange. A stock broker can register to one or more stock exchanges. Only stock
brokers can directly buy and sell shares in Stock Market. An investor must contact
a stock broker to trade stocks. Broker charge commissions (brokerages) for their
service. Brokerage is usually a percent of total amount of trade and varies from
broker to broker.
Stock Trading Traditionally stock trading is done through stock brokers,
personally or through telephones. As number of people trading in stock market
increase enormously in last few years, some issues like location constrains, busy
phone lines, miss communication etc start growing in stock broker offices.
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(1) Ready and Continuous Market: The stock exchange provides a ready and
continuous market for the sale and purchase of securities.
(2) Bank Borrowing Facility: Securities listed on a stock exchange serve as a
collateral security when an investor needs funds from a bank.
(3) Promotes Capital Formation: Stock Exchanges promote capital formation as
they encourage investors to invest need funds from a bank.
(4) Safety and Fair Dealing: The Stock Exchange operates under rules and
regulations framed by the Central Government. The rules and regulations framed
by the Central Government are in the interest to ensure safety to the investors and
whatever be their dealings, it should a fair one.
(5) Government Funding: Stock Exchanges helps the government to raise funds
by selling shares and debentures.
(6) Creation of Employment Opportunities: Stock Exchange creates a number
of employment opportunities to a number of brokers, sub brokers as they are the
intermediaries through which shares are being sold.
(7) Evaluation of Securities: Stock Exchanges helps to evaluate the worth of
securities, as securities are traded at a certain price on the stock market. Investors
real worth of their holdings in the form of shares and debentures which are listed
on the stock exchange.
(8) Industrial Development: The capital collected through shares and debentures
can be put to industrial use. With the capital, new industries can be started, existing
ones can be expanded and modernized and thereby enhancing the industrial
development of a country.
(9) Clearing House of Securities: The Stock Exchanges acts as a clearing house
of securities. It facilitates easy and quick clearance of transactions of securities
between the buyers and the sellers.
(10) Facilitates Flow of Capital: Stock Exchange facilitate the flow of capital to
companies who have a high potential to raise substantial funds.
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