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MATH4-BSEE2B-Probability

The document explains the concept of probability, defining it as the study of how likely events are to occur, with values ranging from 0 to 1. It outlines three forms of probability: theoretical, experimental, and subjective, providing examples and formulas for each. Additionally, it illustrates how to compute probability using these different forms with practical examples involving coins and playing cards.

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19 views

MATH4-BSEE2B-Probability

The document explains the concept of probability, defining it as the study of how likely events are to occur, with values ranging from 0 to 1. It outlines three forms of probability: theoretical, experimental, and subjective, providing examples and formulas for each. Additionally, it illustrates how to compute probability using these different forms with practical examples involving coins and playing cards.

Uploaded by

0323-2157
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Soriano, Jeron E.

October 11, 2024


BSEE-2B Engineering Data Analysis

_____________________________________________________________________________________

1. What is probability?

Probability is the study of how likely something is to happen. It's a way to quantify uncertainty.
In simple terms, probability tells us the chance of a specific event occurring out of all possible
events. The probability of an event is always a number between 0 and 1. If something is
impossible, the probability is 0, and if something is certain, the probability is 1. It’s a crucial
concept used in many fields like math, statistics, economics, and even everyday life.

2. What are the different forms of probability?

There are three common forms of probability:

● Theoretical Probability: This is the "ideal" kind of probability. It’s based on the
assumption that all outcomes are equally likely. It is calculated using the formula:
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
Theoretical Probability = 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠

For example, if you toss a coin, there are two possible outcomes: heads or tails. Since
1
both outcomes are equally likely, the theoretical probability of getting heads is 2
​or 0.5.

● Experimental Probability: This is based on real-life experiments or data collection. It


tells you the probability of an event happening based on the results of experiments. It’s
calculated as:
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑠​
Experimental Probability = 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠

For example, if you flip a coin 100 times and it lands on heads 48 times, the experimental
48
probability of heads is 100
​= 0.48.

● Subjective Probability: This is a personal estimate or belief about how likely


something is to happen. It’s not based on any strict data or calculations. It’s commonly
used when there is no clear data and someone has to make an educated guess.

For instance, you might say, “I think there’s a 70% chance that my favorite team will win
the game today” based on your knowledge of the team and the competition.

3. How is probability computed?

The way we compute probability depends on the form of probability we are using:
● For Theoretical Probability, the formula is:

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠


P(E) = 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠

For example, if you roll a six-sided die, the probability of rolling a 4 is:

1
P(rolling a 4) = 6
= 0.167

● For Experimental Probability, we use data from experiments:

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑠​


P(E) = 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠

For example, if you perform 50 experiments and the event occurs 12 times, the
probability of that event happening is:

12
P(E) = 50
= 0.24

● Subjective Probability is based on personal judgment, so it doesn’t follow any formula.

4. Example of how the different forms of probability are computed

Let’s consider drawing a red card from a deck of 52 playing cards (26 red cards and 26 black
cards).

● Theoretical Probability: Since there are 26 red cards out of 52, the theoretical probability
of drawing a red card is:

26
P(Red Card) = 52
= 0.5

● Experimental Probability: Let’s say you draw a card 10 times, and 4 of those times you
get a red card. The experimental probability would be:

4
P(Red Card) = 10
= 0.4

● Subjective Probability: Based on your feeling, you might estimate that the probability of
drawing a red card is about 60% based on the way you shuffled the deck. This would be
subjective and wouldn’t follow any strict calculation.

For Reference:
Example modified from Durrett, R. (2019). Probability: Theory and Examples.

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