index_numbers.doc
index_numbers.doc
Index Numbers
INTRODUCTION
Historically, the first index was constructed in 1764 to compare the Italian price index
in 1750 with the price level in 1500. Though originally developed for measuring the effect of
change in prices, index numbers have today become one of the most widely used statistical
devices and there is hardly any field where they are not used. Newspapers headline the fact
that prices are going up or down, that industrial production is rising or falling, that imports
are increasing or decreasing, that crimes are rising in a particular period compared to the
previous period as disclosed by index numbers. They are used to feel the pulse of the
economy and they have come to be used as indicators of inflationary or deflationary
tendencies, In fact, they are described as ‘barometers of economic activity’, i.e., if one wants
to get an idea as to what is happening to an economy, he should look to important indices like
the index number of industrial production, agricultural production, business activity, etc.
Some prominent definitions of index numbers are given below:
1. ‘Index numbers are devices for measuring differences in the magnitude of a group of
related variables. —Croxton &
Cowdert
2. “An index number is a statistical measure designed to show changes in a variable or a
group of related variables with respect to time, geographic location or other
characteristics such as income, profession, etc.
—Spiegel
3. “In its simplest form an index number is the ratio of two index numbers expressed as a per
cent. An index number is a statistical measure—a measure designed to show changes in
one variable or in a group of related variables over time, or with respect to geographic
location, or in terms of some other characteristics.” —Patternson
Definition:
Index numbers are statistical devices designed to measure the relative change in the
level of variable or group of variables with respect to time, geographical location etc.
In other words these are the numbers which express the value of a variable at any
given period called “ current period “as a percentage of the value of that variable at some
standard period called “base period ”.
This means there is a net increase of 100% in the price of rice in 1995as compared to
1985 [the base year’s index number is always treated as 100]
Suppose, during the same period 1995 the rice sells at Rs. 12.00/kg in Delhi. There fore,
the index number of price at Bhubaneswar compared to price at Delhi is
This means there is a net decrease of 25% in the price of rice in 1995as compared to
1985
The above index numbers are called ‘price index numbers’.
To take another example the production of rice in 1978 in Orissa was 44, 01,780
metric c tons compare to 36, 19,500 metric tons in 1971. So the index number of the
quantity produced in 1978 compared to 1971 is
That means there is a net increase of 21.61% in production of rice in 1978 as compared to
1971.
The above index number is called ‘quantity index number’
Univariate index: An index which is calculated from a single variable is called univariate
index.
Composite index: An index which is calculated from group of variables is called Composite index
Characteristics of index numbers:
Note: Price and Quantity index numbers are called market index numbers.
Problems in constructing index numbers:
Before constructing index numbers the careful thought must be given into following
problems
i. Purpose of index numbers.
An index number which is properly designed for a purpose can be most useful and
powerful tool. Thus the first and the foremost problem are to determine the purpose of index
numbers. If we know the purpose of the index numbers we can settle some related problems.
For example if the purpose of index number is to measure the changes in the production of
steel, the problem of selection of items is automatically settled.
ii. Selection of commodities
After defining the purpose of index numbers, select only those commodities which are
related to that index. For example if the purpose of an index is to measure the cost of living of
low income group we should select only those commodities or items which are consumed by
persons belonging to this group and due care should be taken not to include the goods which
are utilized by the middle income group or high income group i.e. the goods like cosmetics,
other luxury goods like scooters, cars, refrigerators, television sets etc.
iii. Selection of base period
The period with which the comparisons of relative changes in the level of phenomenon are
made is termed as base period.The index for this period is always taken as 100. The following
are the basic criteria for the choice of the base period.
i) The base period must be a normal period i.e. a period frees from all sorts of
abnormalities or random fluctuations such as labor strikes, wars, floods, earthquakes
etc.
ii) The base period should not be too distant from the given period. Since index numbers
are essential tools in business planning and economic policies the base period should
not be too far from the current period. For example for deciding increase in dearness
allowance at present there is no advantage in taking 1950 or 1960 as the base, the
comparison should be with the preceding year after which the DA has not been
increased.
iii) Fixed base or chain base .While selecting the base a decision has to be made as to
whether the base shall remain fixing or not i.e. whether we have fixed base or chain
base. In the fixed base method the year to which the other years are compared is
constant. On the other hand, in chain base method the prices of a year are linked with
those of the preceding year. The chain base method gives a better picture than what is
obtained by the fixed base method.
● How a base is selected if a normal period is not available?
Ans: Some times it is difficult to distinguish a year which can be taken as a normal year
and hence the average of a few years may be regarded as the value corresponding to the
base year.
Unweighted indices:
i) Simple aggregative method:
This is the simplest method of constructing index numbers. When this method is used to
construct a price index number the total of current year prices for the various commodities in
question is divided by the total of the base year prices and the quotient is multiplied by 100.
`Symbolically
Where P0 are the base year prices
P1 are the current year prices
P01 is the price index number for the current year with reference to the base year.
Problem:
Calculate the index number for 1995 taking 1991 as the base for the following data
Commodity Unit Prices 1991 (P0) Prices 1995 (P1)
A Kilogram 2.50 4.00
B Dozen 5.40 7.20
C Meter 6.00 7.00
D Quintal 150.00 200.00
E Liter 2.50 3.00
Total 166.40 221.20
Limitations:
There are two main limitations of this method
1. The units used in the prices or quantity quotations have a great influence on the
value of index.
2. No considerations are given to the relative importance of the commodities.
When A.M is used for averaging the relatives the formula for computing the index is
When G.M is used for averaging the relatives the formula for computing the index is
Merits:
1. It is not affected by the units in which prices are quoted
2. It gives equal importance to all the items and extreme items don’t affect the index number.
3. The index number calculated by this method satisfies the unit test.
Demerits:
1. Since it is an unweighted average the importance of all items are assumed to be the same.
2. The index constructed by this method doesn’t satisfy all the criteria of an ideal index
number.
3. In this method one can face difficulties to choose the average to be used.
Weighted indices:
i) Weighted aggregative method:
These indices are same as simple aggregative method. The only difference is in this method,
weights are assigned to the various items included in the index.
There are various methods of assigning weights and consequently a large number of
formulae for constructing weighted index number have been designed.
Some important methods are
i. Lasperey’s method: This method is devised by Lasperey in year 1871.It is the most
important of all the types of index numbers. In this method the base year quantities are
taken weights. The formula for constructing Lasperey’s price index
number is
P01La=
ii. Paasche’s method: In this method the current year quantities are taken as weights and the
formula is given by
P01=
iii. Fisher’s ideal method: Fishers price index number is given by the G.M of the Lasperey’s and
Paasche’s index numbers.
Symbolically
P01=
P01DB=
Quantity index numbers:
i. Lasperey’s quantity index number: Base year prices are taken as weights
Q01La=
ii. Paasche’s quantity index number : Current year prices are taken as weights
Q01Pa=
iii. Fisher’s ideal method: Q = 01
F
=
From the practical point of view Lasperey’s index is often proffered to Paasche’s for
the simple reason that Lasperey’s index weights are the base year quantities and do not
change from the year to the next. On the other hand Paasche’s index weights are the current
year quantities, and in most cases these weights are difficult to obtain and expensive.
Lasperey’s index number is said to be have upward bias because it tends to over
estimate the price rise, where as the Paasche’s index number is said to have downward bias,
because it tends to under estimate the price rise.
When the prices increase, there is usually a reduction in the consumption of those
items whose prices have increased. Hence using base year weights in the Lasperey’s index,
we will be giving too much weight to the prices that have increased the most and the
numerator will be too large. Due to similar considerations, Paasche’s index number using
given year weights under estimates the rise in price and hence has down ward bias.
If changes in prices and quantities between the reference period and the base period
are moderate, both Lasperey’s and Paasche’s indices give nearly the same values.
Note: This test is satisfied by all the index numbers except simple aggregative method.
2) Time reversal test
This is suggested by R.A.Fisher. Time reversal test is a test to determine whether a
given method will work both ways in time i.e. forward and backward. In other words, when
the data for any two years are treated by the same method, but with the bases reversed,
the two index numbers secured should be reciprocals to each other, so that their product
is unity. Symbolically the following relation should be satisfied.
Where P01 is the index for time period 1 with reference period 0.
P10 is the index for time period 0 with reference period 1.
Note: This test is not satisfied by Lasperey’s method and Paasche’s method. It is satisfied by
Fisher’s method.
When Lasperey’s method is used
P01La=
P10La=
Now,
P01La× P10La = ≠1
Therefore this test is not satisfied by Lasperey’s method
P01Pa=
P10Pa=
Now,
P01Pa ×P10Pa = ×
Therefore this test is not satisfied by Paasche’s method
When Fisher’s method is used
P01F=
P10F=
Now,
P01F ×P10F= =1
Value index:
The value of a single commodity is the product of its price and quantity. Thus a value
index ‘V’ is the sum of the values of the commodities of given year divided by the sum of the
value of the base year multiplied by 100.
i.e.
3) Factor reversal test:
This is also suggested by R.A.Fisher. It holds that the product of a price index number
and the quantity index number should be equal to the corresponding value index. In other
words the test is that the change in price multiplied by the change in quantity should be
equal to change in value.
If & represents prices and & the quantities in the current year and base
year respectively and if P01 represents the change in price in the current year 1 with
reference to the year 0 and Q01 represents the change in quantity in the current year 1
with reference to the year 0.
Symbolically
Note: This test is not satisfied by Lasperey’s method and Paasche’s method. It is satisfied by
Fisher’s method.
When Lasperey’s method is used
P01La=
Q01La=
Now,
P01La× Q01La =
Therefore this test is not satisfied by Lasperey’s method
When Paasche’s method is used
P01Pa=
Q01Pa=
Now,
P01Pa × Q10Pa = ×
Therefore this test is not satisfied by Paasche’s method
When Fisher’s method is used
P01F=
Q01F=
P01La× Q01La =
=
Therefore this test is satisfied by Fisher’s method
4) Circular test:
This is another test of consistency of an index number. It is an extension of time
reversal test. According to this test, the index should work in a circular fashion.
Symbolically
Note:
This test is not satisfied by Lasperey’s method, Paasche’s method and Fisher’s method.
This test is satisfied by simple average of relatives based on G.M and Kelly’s fixed base
method.
● Prove that AM of Lasperey’s index numbers and Paasche’s index number is greater than or
equal to Fisher’s index number.
Let
Lasperey’s index number = P01La
Paasche’s index number= P01Pa
Fisher’s index number= P01F
Thus
And by using these link relatives we can find the chain indices for each year by using the
below formula
Note: The fixed base index number computed from the original data and chain index number
computed from link relatives give the same value of the index provided that there is only one
commodity, whose indices are being constructed.
Example: from the following data of wholesale prices of wheat for ten years construct index
number taking a) 1998 as base and b) by chain base method
Note: the chain indices obtained in (b) are the same as the fixed base indices obtained in (a).
in fact chain index figures will always be equal to fixed index figure if there is only one
series.
Example-2: Compute the chain index number with 2003 prices as base from the following
table giving the average wholesale prices of the commodities A, B and C for the year 2003 to
2007
Conversion of fixed based index to chain based index
Note: It may be remembered that the fixed base index for the first year is same as the
chain base index for that year.
Base shifting:
One of the most frequent operations necessary in the use of index numbers is
changing the base of an index from one period to another with out recompiling the entire
series. Such a change is referred to as ‘base shifting’. The reasons for shifting the base are
1. If the previous base has become too old and is almost useless for purposes of
comparison.
2. If the comparison is to be made with another series of index numbers having different
base.
The following formula must be used in this method of base shifting is
2003 410
year Index 2004 400
1998 100 2005 380
1999 110 2006 370
2000 120 2007 340
2001 200
2002 400
Shift the base from 1998 to 2004 and recast the index numbers.
Solution:
Index number based on new base year =
Index number for 1998 = =25
………………………………………….
Example: The index A given was started in 1993 and continued up to 2003 in which year
another index B was started. Splice the index B to index A so that a continuous series of
index is made
Deflating:
Deflating means correcting or adjusting a value which has inflated. It makes
allowances for the effect of price changes. When prices rise, the purchasing power of money
declines. If the money incomes of people remain constant between two periods and prices of
commodities are doubled the purchasing power of money is reduced to half. For example if
there is an increase in the price of rice from Rs10/kg in the year 1980 to Rs20/kg in the year
1982. then a person can buy only half kilo of rice with Rs10. so the purchasing power of a
rupee is only 50paise in 1982 as compared to 1980.
The method discussed above is frequently used to deflate individual values, value series or
value indices. Its special use is in problems dealing with such diversified things as rupee
sales, rupee inventories of manufacturer’s, wholesaler’s and retailer’s income, wages and the
like.
Symbolically
Note: It should be noted that the answer obtained by applying the aggregate expenditure
method and family budget method shall be same.
Example: Construct the consumer price index number for 2007 on the basis of 2006 from the
following data using (i) the aggregate expenditure method, and (ii) the family budget method.
Thus, the answer is the same by both the methods. However, the reader should prefer the
aggregate expenditure method because it is far more easier to apply compared to the family
budget method.
Possible errors in construction of cost of living index numbers:
Cost of living index numbers or its recently popular name consumer price index
numbers are not accurate due to various reasons.
1. Errors may occur in the construction because of inaccurate specification of groups for
whom the index is meant.
2. Faulty selection of representative commodities resulting out of unscientific family
budget enquiries.
3. Inadequate and unrepresentative nature of price quotations and use of inaccurate
weights
4. Frequent changes in demand and prices of the commodity
5. The average family might not be always a representative one.
Question bank
Choose the most appropriate option (a) (b) (c) or (d):
21.
(a) Relative Price Index (b) Simple Aggregative Price Index (c) both (d) none,
22. Chain index is equal to
(a) link relative of current year x chain index of the current year/ 100
(b) link relative of previous year xchain index of the current year/100
(c) link relative of current year xchain index of the previous year/100
(d) link relative of previous year x chain index of the previous year/100
23. P01 is the index for time
(a) 1 on 0 (b) 0 on 1 (c) I on 1 (d) 0 on 0
24. P10 is the index for time
(a) 1 on 0 (b) 0 on 1 (c) 1 on 1 (d) 0 on 0
25. When the product of price index and the quantity index is equal to the corresponding value index then
(a) Unit Test (b) Time Reversal Test (c) Factor Reversal Test (d) none holds
26. The formula should be independent of the unit in which or for which price and quantities are quoted in
(a) Unit Test (b) Time Reversal Test (c) Factor Reversal Test (d) none
27. Laspeyre’s method and Paasche’s method do not satisfy
(a) Unit Test (b) Time Reversal Test (c) Factor Reversal Test(d) none
28. The purpose determines the type of index no. to use
(a) yes (b) no (c) may be (d) may not be
29. The index no. is a special type of average
(a) false (b) true (c) both (d) none
30. The choice of suitable base period is at best temporary solution
(a) true (b) false (c) both (d) none
31. Fisher’s Ideal Formula for calculating index nos. satisfies the _______ tests
(a) Units Test (b) Factor Reversal Test` (c) both (d) none
32. Fisher’s Ideal Formula dose not satisfy _________ test
(a) Unit test (b) Circular Test (c) Time Reversal Test (d) none
33. ____________________ satisfies circular test
a) G.M. of price relatives or the weighted aggregate with fixed weights
b) A.M. of price relatives or the weighted aggregate with fixed weights
c) H.M. of price relatives or the weighted aggregate with fixed weights
d) none
34. Laspeyre’s and Paasche’s method _________ time reversal test
(a) satisfy (b) do not satisfy (c) are (d) are not
35. There is no such thing as unweighted index numbers
(a) false (b) true (c) both (d) none
36. Theoretically, G.M. is the best average in the construction of index nos. but in practice. mostly the A.M. is
used
(a) false (b) true (c) both (d) none
37. Laspeyre’s or Paasche’s or the Fisher’s ideal index do not satisfy
(a) Time Reversal Test (b) Unit Test (c) Circular Test (d) none
38. ___________ is concerned with the measurement of price changes over a period of years
when it is desirable to shift the base
(a) Unit Test (b) Circular Test (c) Time Reversal Test (d) none
39. The test of shifting the base is called
(a) Unit Test (b) Time Reversal Test (c) Circular Test (d) none
56. Cost of living Index number (C. L. I.) is expressed in terms of:
57. If the ratio between Laspeyre’s index number Paasche’s Index number is 28 : 27. Then the Missing
figure in the following table P is:
(a) 7 (b)4 (c)3 (d)9
65. . Marshall Edge worth Index formula after interchange of p and q is impressed in terms of: