Replacement and Game Theory
Replacement and Game Theory
Replacement Problems - Replacement of Assets that Deteriorates with Time and without
Time Value of Money Consideration; Replacement of Assets that Fail Suddenly. Theory of
Games - Pure and Mixed Strategies - Saddle Point, Dominance Property, Modified
Dominance property and Graphical Method of Solving Games.
If any equipment or machine is used for a long period of time, due to wear and tear, the
item tends to worsen. A remedial action to bring the item or equipment to the original level is
desired. Then the need for replacement becomes necessary. This may be due physical impairment,
due to normal wear and tear, obsolescence etc. The resale value of the item goes on diminishing
with the passage of time.
The depreciation of the original equipment is a factor, which is responsible not to favor
replacement because the capital is being spread over a long time leading to a lower average cost.
Thus there exists an economic trade-off between increasing and decreasing cost functions. We
strike a balance between the two opposing costs with the aim of obtaining a minimum cost.
Replacement model aims at identifying the time at which the assets must be replaced in
order to minimize the cost.
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The physical condition of the equipment itself
Leads to a decline in the value of service rendered by the equipment
Increasing operating cost of the equipment
Increased maintenance cost of the equipment
Or a combination of the above.
2. Obsolescence of the equipment, caused due to improvement in the existing tools and
machinery mainly when the technology becomes advanced.
Certain assets wear and tear as they are used. The efficiency of the assets decline with time.
The maintenance cost keeps increasing as the years pass by eg. Machinery, automobiles,
etc.
1. Gradual failure without taking time value of money into consideration
2. Gradual failure taking time value of money into consideration
As mentioned earlier the equipments, machineries and vehicles undergo wear and tear with the
passage of time. The cost of operation and the maintenance are bound to increase year by year. A
stage may be reached that the maintenance cost amounts prohibitively large that it is better and
economical to replace the equipment with a new one. We also take into account the salvage
value of the items in assessing the appropriate or opportune time to replace the item. We assume
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that the details regarding the costs of operation, maintenance and the salvage value of the item
are already known
i) Replacement decision: Average cost is minimum (Average cost will decrease and
reach minimum, later it will increase)
Year Running Cumulative Capital Salvage Depn. = Total cost= Average annual
Cost Running cost value Capital Cumulative cost Pn = Total
Cost Or cost – running cost cost / no. of
Resale salvage + corresponding
value value Depreciation year
N Rn Rn C Sn C - Sn Rn+C -Sn (Rn + C – Sn)
/n
1 2 3 4 5 6 (4-5) 7 (3+6) 8 (7/1)
In the previous section we did not take the interest for the money invested, the
running costs and resale value. If the effect of time value of money is to be taken into
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account, the analysis must be based on an equivalent cost. This is done with the present
value or present worth analysis.
For example, suppose the interest rate is given as 10% and Rs. 100 today would amount
to Rs. 110 after a year's time. In other words the expenditure of Rs. 110 in year's time is
equivalent to Rs. 100 today. Likewise one rupee a year from now is equivalent to (1.1)-1
rupees today and one-rupee in 'n' years from now is equivalent to (1.1)-n rupees today. This
quantity (1.1)-n is called the present value or present worth of one rupee spent 'n' years from
now.
Procedure for replacement of an asset that fails gradually (with considering Time
value of money):
Assumption:
i. Maintenance cost will be calculated at the beginning of the year
ii. Resale value at the end of the year
Procedure:
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l) Find the Average cost = Total cost / Annuity
m) Replacement decision: Average cost is minimum (Average cost will decrease and
reach minimum, later it will increase)
n- n n-
Year Rn RnPv n- C Sn Pvn SnPv C - R vn-1 PV
Pvn-1 RnPv n n Wn
n 1 1 SnPv + 1
n
C -SnPv
There is another type of problem where we consider the items that fail completely. The item
fails such that the loss is sudden and complete. Common examples are the electric bulbs,
transistors and replacement of items, which follow sudden failure mechanism.
As per this strategy, an optimal group replacement period 'P' is determined and common
preventive replacement is carried out as follows.
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(b) Replace all the items every optimum period of 'P' irrespective of the life of individual
item. Examples: Bulbs, Tubes, and Switches.
Among the three strategies that may be adopted, the third one namely the group replacement policy
turns out to be economical if items are supplied cheap when purchased in bulk quantities. With
this policy, all items are replaced at certain fixed intervals.
A competitive situation in business can be treated similar to a game. There are two or
more players and each player uses a strategy to out play the opponent.
A strategy is an action plan adopted by a player in-order to counter the other player.In our of
game theory we have two players namely Player A and Player B.
The basic objective would be that
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Player A – plays to Maximize profit (offensive) - Maxi (min) criteria
Player B – plays to Minimize losses (defensive) - Mini (max) criteria
The Maxi (Min) criteria is that – Maximum profit out of minimum possibilities
The Mini (max) criteria is that – Minimze losses out of maximum possibilities.
Game theory helps in finding out the best course of action for a firm in view of the anticipated
counter-moves from the competing organizations.
3. A play of the game results when each competitor selects a course of action from the set of
courses available to him. In game theory we make an important assumption that all the players
select their courses of action simultaneously. As a result no competitor will be in a position to
know the choices of his competitors.
4. The outcome of a play consists of the particular courses of action chosen by the individual
players. Each outcome leads to a set of payments, one to each player, which may be either positive,
or negative, or zero.
4.4.2 TERMINOLOGIES
Zero Sum game because the Gain of A – Loss of B = 0. In other words, the gain of Player A is
the Loss of Player B.
Pure strategy If a player knows exactly what the other player is going to do, a deterministic
situation is obtained and objective function is to minimize the gain Therefore the pure strategy is
a decision rule always to select a particular course of action.
Mixed strategy If a player is guessing as to which activity is to be selected by the other on any
particular occasion, a probabilistic situation is obtained and objective function is to maximize the
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expected gain. Thus, the mixed strategy is a selection among pure strategies with fixed
probabilities.
Optimal strategy The strategy that puts the player in the most preferred position irrespective of
the strategy of his opponents is called an optimal strategy Any deviation from this strategy would
reduce his payoff.
Saddle Point : If the Maxi (min) of A = Mini (max) of B then it is known as the Saddle Point
Saddle point is the number, which is lowest in its row and highest in its column. When minimax
value is equal to maximin value , the game is said to have saddle point. It is the cell in the payoff
matrix which satisfies minimax to maximin value
Value of the Game : It is the average wining per play over a long no. of plays. It is the expected
pay off when all the players adopt their optimum strategies .If the value of game is zero it is said
to be a fair game , If the value of game is not zero it is said to be a unfair game . In all problems
relating to game theory, first look for saddle point, then check out for rule of dominance and see
if you can reduce the matrix.
Rule of Dominance:
The dominance and modified dominance principles and their applications for reducing the size of
a game with or without a saddle point. If every value of one strategy of A is lesser than that of the
other strategy of A, Then A will play the strategy with greater values and remove the strategywith
the lesser payoff values.
If every value of one strategy of B is greater than that of other strategy of B, B will play the
lesser value strategy and remove the strategy with higher payoff values.
If all the elements in a particular row is lower than or equal to all the elements in another row, then
the row with the lower items are said to be dominated by row with higher ones, Then the row with
lower elements will be eliminated.
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Dominance rule for the column
If all the elements in a particular column is higher than or equal to all the elements in another
column, then the column with the higher items are said to be dominated by column with lower
ones, Then the column with higher elements will be eliminated.
In few cases, if the given strategy is inferior to the average of two or more pure strategies, then
the inferior strategy is deleted from the pay-off matrix and the size of the matrix is reduced
considerably. In other words, if a given row has lower elements than the elements of average of
two rows then particular row can be eliminated. Similarly if a given column has higher elements
than the elements of average of two columns then particular column can be eliminated. Average
row/column cannot be eliminated under any circumstances.. This type of dominance property is
known as the modified dominance property
If one of the players, play only two strategies or if the game can be reduced such that one of the
players play only two strategies. Then the game can be solved by the graphical method.
In case the pay-off matrix is of higher order (say m x n ), then we try to reduce as much as possible
using dominance and modified dominance ,f we get a pay-off matrix of order 2 x n or n x 2 we try
to reduce the size of the pay-off matrix to that of order 2 x 2 with the graphical method so that the
value of game could be obtained
.
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4.4.4 Managerial Applications of the Theory of Games
The techniques of game theory can be effectively applied to various managerial problems as
detailed below:
QUESTION BANK
GAME THEORY
PURE STRATEGIES
1. Solve the game whose payoff matrix is given below
B1 B2 B3
A1 -2 5 -3
A2 1 3 5
A3 -3 -7 11
2. B1 B2 B3
A1 0 -4 -2
A2 3 -5 1
A3 -2 -1 6
A4 1 0 4
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Problems
Problem 1. The cost of a machine is Rs. 6100/- and its scrap The maintenance costs found
from experience are as follows:
The avg. annual cost is minimum Rs. should be replaced after 6 years of use.
Problem 2. A machine owner finds from his past records that the costs per year of
maintaining a machine whose purchase price is Ks. 6000 are as given below
Determine at what age is a replacement due?
Ans. Capital cost C = 6000/-. Let it be profitable to replace the. machine after n
We observe from the table that avg. annual cost is minimum (Rs. 2700/-). Hence the m/c should
replace at the end of 5th year.
Type B. Replacement of items whose maintenance costs increase with time and value of money
also changes with time.
The machine should be replaced if the next period’s cost is greater than weighted average of
previous cost.
Discount rate [Present worth factor (PWF)
Problem 3. A machine costs Rs. 500/— Operation and Maintenance cost are zero for the
first year and increase by Rs. 100/— every year. If money. is worth 5% every year,
determine the best age at which the machine should be replaced. The resale value of the
machine is negligible small. What is the weighted average cost of owning and operating the
machine?
M/c su1d be replaced at the end of 3C1 year.
Problem 3. Purchase price of a machine is Rs. 3000/— and its running cost is given in the
table below. If should be replaced. the discount rate is 0.90. Find at what age the machine
Problem 4. The following mortality ratio have been observed for a certain type
There are a large no. of such bulbs which are to be kept in working order. If a bulb fails in
service, it cost Rs. 3 to replace but if all the bulbs all replaced in the same operation it can
be done for only Rs. 0.70/— a bulb. It is proposed to replace all bulbs at fixed intervals,
whether or not they have burnt out and continue replacing burnt out bulb as they fail.
(b) Also establish if the policy, as determined by you is superior to the policy of replacing
bulbs as and when they, fail, there being nothing like group replacement.
(c) At what group replacement price per bulb, would a policy of strictly individual
replacement become preferable to the adopted policy?
Solution : Let p. be the probability that a new light bulbs fail during the 1th wek of the life.
Problem 5. Find the value of games shown below also indicator whether they are fair or
strictly determinable
Solution.
Solution.
(a)
Problem 7. (By Dominance) Two players P and Q play a game. Each of them has to choose
one of three colours, white (W) Black (B) and Red (R) independently of the other. There
after the colours are compared. If both P and Q have choosen white (W,W) neither win
anything. If player P selects white and player Q black (W, B), player P loses Rs. 2 or player
Q wins the same amount and so on. The complete payoff table is shown. Find the optimum
strategies for P and Q and the value of the game.
Solution.
There is no saddle point
By dominance rule for column, 3’ column may be removed. The resulting matrix is
By dominance rule for row, row may be removed The resultmg matrix (2 x 2) is
— reduce by dominance rule for column 2 and 5th column may be deleted
as dominated by 4th and 3’ column.
The resulting matrix is
1. No saddle point
Resulting matrix
expected payoff the two lines which intersect at lowest pomt of upper bound show the two
course of action A should choose in his best strategy.
The resulting matrix is
Problem 9. Solve the following game.
Solution There is no saddle point in the game By rule of dommance for column 1st and 3’
column may be deleted as dominated by 2nd and 4th column respectively.
Thus the resulting matrix is
Problem 10. Obtain the optimal strategies for both persons and the value of the game for
zero sum two person game whose payoff matrix is given as follows:
Solution. There is no saddle point m the game by rule of dominance for column 2nd,
4th and 5th column are dominated by 1st column and 3rd column dommated by 6th column
hence 2nd, 4th, 5th and 3rd column may be removed. The resulting matrix is (2x2).
4.4.4Managerial Applications of the Theory of Games
The techniques of game theory can be effectively applied to various managerial problems as
detailed below:
QUESTION BANK
GAME THEORY
PURE STRATEGIES
1. Solve the game whose payoff matrix is given below
B1 B2 B3
A1 -2 5 -3
A2 1 3 5
A3 -3 -7 11
2. B1 B2 B3
A1 0 -4 -2
A2 3 -5 1
A3 -2 -1 6
A4 1 0 4
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MIXED STRATEGIES
3. Solve the game whose payoff matrix is given below
B1 B2
A1 1 7
A2 5 1
4. B1 B2
A1 6 -3
A2 -3 7
5. B1 B2 B3
A1 2 -2 4
A2 6 1 12
A3 -3 2 10
6. B1 B2 B3
A1 -3 7 4
A2 -2 -2 5
A3 3 -2 5
7. B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 B6
A1 4 2 0 2 1 1
A2 4 3 1 3 2 2
A3 4 3 7 -5 1 2
A4 4 3 4 -1 2 2
A5 4 3 3 -2 2 2
8. B1 B2 B3 B4
A1 3 2 4 0
A2 3 4 2 4
A3 4 2 4 0
A4 0 4 0 8
9. B1 B2 B3
A1 -1 2 8
A2 7 5 -1
A3 6 0 -12
10. B1 B2 B3
A1 19 20 23
A2 10 5 9
A3 21 14 10
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GRAPHICAL METHOD
11. B1 B2 B3 B4
A1 2 4 -2 8
A2 3 6 5 -5
12. B1 B2
A1 1 -3
A2 3 5
A3 -1 6
A4 4 1
A5 2 2
A6 -5 0
REPLACEMENT
1. The purchase price of an asset is 8000, maintenance cost and resale value are given
as follows.
Year M.C R.V
1 1000 4000
2 1200 2000
3 1700 1200
4 2200 600
5 2900 500
6 3800 400
Find out optimum year and cost for replacement.
2. Cost of machine is 7000, maintenance cost is given by equation. 1000x (n-1), resale
value is 4000, 2000, 1200, 600,500,400 thereafter. Find out when to replace the asset.
4. There are 2 machines A and B. Machine A cost RS.45000, operating cost is Rs.1000
in first year and it increases by 10000 every year.
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Machine B cost Rs.50000, operating cost is Rs.2000 and it increases by RS.4000 every
year. Prove if Machine A must be replaced by Machine B. If yes, when? Assume both
machines do not have resale value.
5. Find out time of replacement if the maintenance cost is given by the equation 500(n-
1). Discount rate is 15%. No resale value. The machinery cost RS. 5000.
6. A lorry cost RS. 80000, running cost and salvage value are given. Use 10% discount rate.
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
R.C 6000 7500 9000 12000 15000 20000 20000 30000
SV 60000 40000 30000 25000 20000 2000 2000 2000
7. Find out whether to use IRP Or GRP given the following details
Week Cum. Prob
1 0.07
2 0.15
3 0.25
4 0.45
5 0.75
6 0.9
7 1
8. Week 1 2 3 4 5
% of failure 10 25 50 80 100
IRP cost Rs.2
GRP cost 0.50ps.
9. Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Survival rate 100 97 90 70 30 15 0
IRP cost Rs.1
GRP cost 0.35ps
Assume 1000 bulbs.
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MODEL QUESTIONS
PART – A
1. What is meant by replacement? Explain the different types of replacements.
2. Explain the different methods of replacement of assets.
3. What do you mean by a) Individual replacement policy b) Group replacement policy?
4. Explain the procedure for replacement of an asset that fails gradually without
considering Time value of money.
5. Explain the procedure for replacement of an asset that fails gradually with
considering Time value of money
6. What is meant Game theory? Explain its importance.
7. Explain the characteristics of Game.
8. What do you mean by a) pay-off matrix b) saddle point c) pure strategy d)
Mixed strategy e) Maximin principle f) Minimax principle.
9. What do you mean by Dominance principle? Explain its procedure.
10. Write the rules of dominance principle?
PART – B
Player A B1 B2 B3 B4 B5
A1 2 4 3 8 4
A2 5 6 3 7 8
A3 3 7 9 8 7
A4 4 2 8 4 3
12. The cost of a new machine is Rs. 3000. Discounted factor is 10%. Find the Optimum
period of replacement.
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Running 500 600 800 1000 1300 1600 2000
Cost
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13. Solve the Game using Dominance principle
Player A B1 B2 B3 B4
A1 3 2 4 0
B2 3 4 2 4
C3 4 2 4 0
D4 0 4 0 4
14. There are 1000 bulbs. The following failure rates have been observed for a certain items.
End of week: 1 2 3 4 5
Prob. of failure: 0.10 0.30 0.55 0.85 1.00
The cost of replacing an individual item is Rs 1.25. The decision is made to replace all
items simultaneously and also replace individual items as they fail. The cost of group
replacement is 50 Paise. Which is better individual replacement or group replacement?
B1 B2
A1 1 -3
A2 3 5
A3 -1 6
A4 4 1
A5 2 2
A6 -5 0
16. The following failure rates have been observed for a certain type of transistors in a
digital computer.
End of week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
The cost of replacing an individual failed transistor is Rs1.25. The decision is made to
replace all these transistors simultaneously at fixed intervals and to replace the individual
transistor as they fail in service. If the cost of group replacement is 30 paise per transistor.
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What is the interval between group replacements? It is preferable over individual
replacement policy?
17. Purchase cost of a machie is 4100, scrap value 100 and installation charges 2000
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Maintenance Cost 50 125 200 300 450 600 800 1200
Operating Cost 50 125 200 300 450 600 800 800
B1 B2
A1 7
A2 3
The cost of the replacement of the part is Rs. 500 whereas the failure would cost Rs. 3000.
What should be the optimal replacement policy?
20. For the firm A and B, the payoff matrix is given below. Solve the game with dominance
principles.
PLAYER B1 B2 B3
A1 -4 -1 7
A2 2 0 3
A3 3 -2 1
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