The Theory of Demographic Transition Complete Notes
The Theory of Demographic Transition Complete Notes
Studies trends and processes associated with population like structure and
composition of population (relative proportion of women and men in different
age groups)
Demographic data are important for the planning and implementation of state
policies, especially for economic development and general public welfare.
Social statistics also provided a strong justification for the new discipline of
sociology.
Aggregate statistics offer a strong and concrete argument for the existence of
social phenomenon.
Even though country level or state level statistics like the number of deaths per
1000 population or the death rate are all made up by aggregating individual
deaths, the death rate itself is a social phenomenon and must be explained at the
social level.
A record of specific indicators such as total fertility rate, sex ratio, maternal
mortality rate give an indication to the policy makers of the specific groups that
need to be protected/helped and assessed in a particular section of population.
The analysis of demographic data is very helpful in analysing the age structure of
the population, making the population control policies and population control
goals and achievements.
3. Explain the Malthusian theory of population growth
He argued that human population tends to grow at a much faster rate than the
rate at which means of human subsistence grows. The humans have an inherent
tendency to reproduce,
While the population rises in geometrical progression (2, 4,8, 16, 32…), the
agricultural production can only grow in arithmetic progression (2, 4, 6, 8, 10…).
Thus there is antagonism between the power of land and power of population.
Population thus multiplies much faster and is difficult to bring under control.
Since population growth outstrips the growth in means of subsistence, the only
way out was to control the population.
WAYS TO CONTROL POPULATION
POSITIVE CHECK- in the form of famines, diseases and natural calamities, this
is nature’s way of dealing with the imbalance between food supply and increase
in population.
4. Why was Malthus’s theory criticized?
STAGE 1
STAGE 2 STAGE 3
UNDERDEVELOPED
DEVELOPING DEVELOPED
Birth Rate- high
\ Birth Rate- HIGH Birth Rate- LOW
Death Rate- HIGH
Death Rate- LOW Death Rate- LOW
Growth rate- low
Growth Rate- HIGH Growth Rate- HIGH
Population-
Population- Population- BALANCED
BALANCED
FIRST STAGE- the first state is that of low population growth in a country that is
underdeveloped and technologically backward. Growth rate are low both birth
rate and death rate are very high, so that the difference between the two is low.
The birth rate is high because there is no family planning done and people do not
understand the concept of less kids getting more resources than more kids
getting less resources. The death rate is high due to less or lack of medical
facilities,
SECOND STAGE- the second stage is the transition stage of movement from a
backward to an advanced stage of population. This population explosion
happens because death rates are brought down relatively quickly through
advanced methods of disease control, public health and better nutrition. However
it takes longer for the society to adjust to change and alter their reproductive
behavior to suit the new situation of relative prosperity and longer life span.
THIRD STAGE- the third stage is also one of low growth in a developed country
where both death rate and birth rate have been reduced considerably and the
difference between them is again low. This is because people have understood
family planning and its consequences and also the death rate is low due to
proper medical facilities and advanced technologies of disease control and
better nutrition.
Q) Explain the statement ‘unlike the death rate, the birth rate has not registered a sharp
fall’
Ans) Death rate has been brought down quickly because of the following reasons:
• There is control over epidemic diseases (biggest global influenza pandemic killed as
many as 125 lakh people or 5% of total population).
• Increased control over famines.
• Improvement for diseases such as plague, cholera, malaria etc.
• Programmes for mass vaccination.
• Increased effort to improve sanitation.
• Though malaria, diarrhea exists and continue to kill people but deaths due to these
diseases is less.
However birth rate has not registered a sharp fall because:
• Birth rate is a socio-cultural phenomenon and slow to change.
• Poverty and lack of awareness lead to increased birth rate.
• High infant mortality rate.
• Early marriage and repeated programmes.
• Preference for male child.
Q) Discuss size and growth of India’s population highlighting the reasons for the
negative growth rate between 1911-1921 and increasing rate of population
between1961-1981
YEAR GROWTH RATE
1911-1921 -0.03%
1961-1981 2.2%
Before 1931 both birth rate and death rate were very high
This was because of major influenza epidemic, Spanish Flu of 1918-19 caused by
a virus which killed about 5% of India’s total population.
Q) What do you understand by age structure of the population? Give reasons to show
how the age structure changes in response to changes in the level of development and
average life expectancy
The age structure of the population refers to the proportion of people in different age
groups relative to the total population.
The age structure gives us the age composition of the population showing the
percentage of the population in the different age groups.
0-14 – younger (dependent)
15-64- working
65 and above- elderly (dependent)
Poor medical facilities, prevalence of disease and other factors makes for
relatively short life span.
At the same time high infant and maternal mortality rate also impacts age
structure.
With development quality of life improves and with it the life expectancy also
improves. This changes the age structure as relatively smaller proportion of the
population are found in the younger age group and larger proportion in the older
age groups. This is also referred to as the ageing of the population.
Q) How does age structure lead to the study of demographic dividend? Why is it relevant
for economic growth and development?
OR
Does changing age structure offer demographic dividend for India?
India has a very young population and the majority of strength lies in the age
group of 15-64 years.
This age structure is represented in the form of population pyramid also called
the age sex pyramid which gives a detailed version of the age group data of a
particular country in a particular year for both males and females.
Countries also make pyramids for the future size of the relevant age groups
based on the data of the past and such estimates are known as projections.
Age group pyramid leads to the study of demographic dividend in the following
ways:
i. The pyramid shows the effect of a gradual fall in the BR and rise in life
expectancy.
ii. As more and more people begin to live to an older age, the top of the pyramid
grows wider.
iii. As relatively fewer new births take place the bottom of the pyramid grows
narrower.
iv. But the BR is slow to fall as it doesn’t change much.
v. The middle of the pyramid grows wider and wider as its share of population
increases.
vi. The demographic dividend to be derived from the age structure is due to the fact
that India is one of the youngest country in the world.
vii. This implies a large and growing labour force which can deliver unexpected
benefits of economic growth and prosperity.
viii. This dividend results from an increase in the proportion of workers relative to
non workers.
ix. Changes in the age structure due to demographic transition lowers the
dependency ratio. However this can only be converted into actual growth only of
the rise in working age groups is accompanied by increasing levels of education
and employment because if the new entrant to the labour force are uneducated,
their productivity remains low. Also if they remain unemployed, they become
dependents rather than earners.
x. Thus changing age structure by itself cannot guarantee benefits unless it is
properly utilized through planned development.
RELEVANCE FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT
A population’s age structure (the relative size of each age group) deeply affects
development opportunities and plays a major role in the economic development
of the country.
Thus the working population along with good economic policies will make more
people enter the labour market and if they are adequately educated and skilled,
the entire country will reap the benefits of economic development through this
changing age structure.
Q) What do you understand by sex ratio? What are the reasons for declining sex ratio in
India?
Sex ratio refers to the number of females per thousand males in a given area at a
specified time period.
The following are the reasons for the declining sex ratio:
1. The main health factor in the fall in sex ratio maybe due to the increased risk of
females dying during childbirth.
4. Sex specific abortions that prevent girl babies from being born (sonogram)
5. Female infanticide (or the killing of girl babies due to religious or cultural beliefs).
6. Families prefer to have fewer children. There is preference for male child.
7. Economically prosperous families like in Punjab decide to have few children and
go for Pre-natal Diagnostic Technique to determine the sex of the child.
Low sex ratio, if continued will have serious implications on our social networks
particularly the institution of marriage.
It will also cause severe law and order problems related to women.
It is observed that states such as Kerala have the highest sex ratio which is
above 1000 whereas others have a ratio below 1000.
These variations in sex ratio are mainly attributed to low levels of literacy in the
different states of India.
Prosperous regions like Delhi, Maharashtra, Chandigarh are amongst the richest
states in India in terms of per capita income but have the lowest sex ratio due to
availability of sonogram.
Literacy can lead to health awareness and fuller participation in the cultural and
economic well being of the community.
But literacy rate varies across gender, regions and across social groups such as
among the SCs and STs who have been historically disadvantaged.
Q) Give examples to justify that literacy varies across gender, regions and social groups.
Literacy varies considerably across gender, across regions and across social
groups.
GENDER-There is a difference between the literacy rates of men and women. The
literacy rate for women is 16.7% less than male. However female literacy has
been rising faster than male.
The inequality in literacy rate are specially important because they tend to reproduce
inequality across generations.
NOTE- DO ALL THESE QUESTIONS IN YOUR FAIR COPIES
Q) Define dependency ratio. Why is rising dependency ratio a cause of concern and
falling dependency ratio a source of economic growth?
Ans) The dependency ratio is a measure comparing the portion of a population which is
composed of dependents (i.e. elderly people who are too old to work and children who
are too young to work) with the portion that is in the working age group, generally
defined as 15-64 years.
RISING DEPENDENCY RATIO:
A rising dependency ratio is a cause of worry in countries that are facing an aging
population, since it becomes difficult for a relatively smaller proportion of the
working age people to carry the burden of providing for a relatively larger
proportion of dependents.
On the other hand a falling dependency ratio can be a source of economic growth
and prosperity due to the larger proportion of workers relative to the non workers.
However this benefit is temporary because the larger pool of working age people
will eventually turn into non working old people.
Q) What do you understand by the term age structure of the population? Give reasons
to show that age structure changes in response to the changes in the level of
development and average life expectancy?
Ans) The age structure of the population refers to the proportion of persons in
different age groups relative to the total population.
Poor medical facilities, prevalence of diseases and other factors makes for a
relatively short life span.
At the same time, high infant and maternal mortality rate also impacts the age
structure.
With development, quality of life improves and with it life expectancy also
improves. This change the age structure as relatively smaller proportion of the
population is found in the younger age group and larger proportion in the older
age group. This is also referred to as aging of the population.
Q) Why is a state like Kerala beginning to acquire an age structure like that of a
developed country whereas UP presents a very different picture?
A state like Kerala is beginning to acquire an age structure of a developed
country because of the following:
a) Decrease in birth rate due to literacy, family planning and better technologies.
b) Decrease in death rate due to better medical facilities and higher life expectancy.
On the contrary, states like UP have high proportion in the younger age group and
relatively low among the aged because of the following:
People are now increasingly engaged in non farm rural occupations (transport, business,
craft manufacturing) or if living near any urban centre, they might work there while
continuing living in village.
It is bringing images of urban life styles and patterns of consumption into rural areas.
Urban norms and standards are becoming well known and also creating desires and
aspirations for consumption.
Mass transit and communication are bridging gap between rural and urban areas.
3. URBANISATION:
From urban point of view, towns and cities have been acting as magnet for rural
population.
Those who cannot find work in rural areas are going to city in search for work.
This flow of rural to urban migration has also been accelerated by the continuous
decline of common property (ponds, forests, and grazing land) which helped people to
survive even though they owned less or no land.
This hardship is worsened by the fact that opportunities for earning cash income are
limited in villages.
4. ANONYMITY OF CITIES:
The fact that urban life involves interaction with strangers can be an advantage for
different reasons.
For people belonging to Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes, this offers protection
from daily humiliation faced in villages.
Anonymity of cities allows poorer sections of socially dominant rural groups to engage
in low status work that they would not be able to do in villages.
5. METROPOLIS:
Biggest cities (metropolis) have been growing the fastest. These metropolis attract
migrants from rural as well as from small towns.
Larger cities in India are growing at such a rapid rate that urban infrastructure can hardly
keep pace. With the help of media, India’s face is becoming more of urban and less of
rural.
2. In India, the national population policy took a long time to get implemented due to
various cultural and political reasons.
3. However it was implemented in the year 1950 explicitly and called as National Family
Planning Programme with the broad aspect of controlling the rate and pattern of growth
of population in a socially desirable way i.e. to slow down the population rate through
various programmes and increasing awareness.
Slow the rate of population growth through the promotion of various birth control
methods.
5. Over the past half century, India has made many significant achievements to her credit in
the field of population.
Q) Why was the National Family Planning Programme renamed? Mention major achievements
of National Family Welfare Programme.
OR
Why did the National Family Planning Programme suffered a setback during emergency?
The National Family Planning Programme suffered a setback during the years of
National Emergency (1975-77).
Normal parliamentary and legal procedures were suspended during this time and special
laws and ordinances issued directly by the government were in force.
During this period, government tried to intensify the effort to bring down the growth rate
of population by introducing coercive programmes of mass sterilisation such as
vasectomy (men) and tubectomy (women) preventing conception and childbirth.
Powerless people were forcibly sterilised with massive pressure on low level
government officials to bring people for sterilisation.
There was widespread opposition to the programme and a new government elected post
Emergency.
The National Family Planning Programme was renamed as the National Family Welfare
Programme and coercive methods were no longer used.
The programme now has a broad-based set of socio-demographic objectives. A new set
of guidelines were formulated as part of the National Population Policy of the year 2000.
In 2017, Government of India came out with National Health Policy 2017 in which most
of these socio-demographic goals were incorporated with new targets
3. More than 90% of the newborn are fully immunized by one year of age by 2025.
6. Meet need of family planning above 90% at national and sub national level by 2025.