EDA (Eng’g Data Analysis)

Reference: Intro to Statistics by R. Walpole Lecture Notes 3

Topic Learning Outcomes (TLO)

After these topics, the students can

1. Count sample points for any specific statistical experiment.
2. Determine the probability of simple events.

PROBABILITY

 Probability is a way of expressing the varying degrees of confidence, not clearly

defined, in the possibility of the occurrence of some uncertain events.

TERMS

 Random Experiment – any process of repetition which results to basically identical

outcomes.
 Sample Space, S – the set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment.
 Sample Point – any element of a sample space.
 Event – a subset of a sample space
 Null Space (empty space) – is a subset of the sample space that contains no
elements.

Operations with Events

S A S

A∩B

B
B

Venn Diagram of events with Venn Diagram of events

common elements without common elements
(mutually exclusive events)

S
X
X’
Venn Diagram of
complementary events

VENN DIAGRAMS

1. Union of two events A and B, denoted by A U B, is the event containing all the
elements that belong to A or B or both.

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Reference: Intro to Statistics by R. Walpole Lecture Notes 3
2. Intersection of two events A and B, denoted by A ∩ B, is the event containing all
the elements that are common in A and B.
3. The complement of an event A with respect to S is the set of all elements of S that
are not in A.
4. Mutually exclusive events or disjoint events, A ∩ B = Φ. A and B have no elements
in common.

Illustration no. 1

Given:
𝑆 = {𝑎, 𝑏, 𝑐, 𝑑, 𝑒, 𝑓, 𝑔, ℎ, 𝑖, 𝑗, 𝑘, 𝑙, 𝑚, 𝑛, 𝑜} 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒
𝑋 = {𝑎, 𝑏, 𝑐, 𝑑, 𝑒} 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑋
𝑌 = {𝑎, 𝑐, 𝑓, 𝑔, 𝑘} 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑌
𝑍 = {𝑎, 𝑒, 𝑔, 𝑘, 𝑗, 𝑚} 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑍
𝑅 = {𝑛, 𝑜} 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅

Required:
a. Draw the Venn diagram of the sample space, event X, event Y, and event Z
b. The set representing the union of events X and Y
c. The set representing the complementary event of event Y
d. The set representing the complementary event of the union of events Y and Z
e. The set representing the union of events X and R
f. The set representing the union of events X, Z, and R

Solution:
a. Draw the Venn Diagram
Steps:
 Determine the intersection of the events
 Start from the innermost region filling it with the element(s) going outwards
 𝑋 ∩ 𝑌 = {𝑎, 𝑐}
 𝑋 ∩ 𝑍 = {𝑎, 𝑒}
 𝑌 ∩ 𝑍 = {𝑎, 𝑔, 𝑘}
 𝑋 ∩ 𝑌 ∩ 𝑍 = {𝑎, }

𝑺
X
𝒃 Y
𝒄 𝒇
𝒅
𝒂 𝒈 𝒉
𝒆
𝒌
R 𝒊
𝒏 𝒋
𝒎 𝒍
𝒐
Z
b. 𝑋𝑈𝑌 = {𝑎, 𝑏, 𝑐, 𝑑, 𝑒, 𝑓, 𝑔, 𝑘} 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑋 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑌
c. 𝑌 ′ = {𝑏, 𝑑, 𝑒, ℎ, 𝑖, 𝑗, 𝑙, 𝑚} 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑦 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑌
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d. 𝑌𝑈𝑍 = {𝑎, 𝑐, 𝑓, 𝑔, 𝑗, 𝑘, 𝑚} 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑌 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑍
Thus:
(𝑌𝑈𝑍)′ = {𝑏, 𝑑, ℎ, 𝑖, 𝑙} 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑦 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑌 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑍
e. 𝑋𝑈𝑅 = {𝑎, 𝑏, 𝑐, 𝑑, 𝑒, 𝑛, 𝑜} 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑋 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑅
f. 𝑋𝑈𝑍𝑈𝑅 = {𝑎, 𝑏, 𝑐, 𝑑, 𝑒, 𝑔, 𝑗, 𝑘, 𝑚, 𝑛, 𝑜} 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑋, 𝑍, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑅
Illustration No. 2

An experiment consists of tossing a die and then flipping a coin once if the number on the
die is even. If the number on the die is odd, the coin is flipped twice. Using the notation
4H, for example, to denote the simple event that the die comes up 4 and then the coin
comes up heads, and 3HT to denote the simple event that the die comes up 3 followed
by a head and then a tail on the coin, list the elements of the sample space, S.

Solution:

Let the sides of the die as labelled 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. The sides of the coin as H for head
and T for tail.

Construct the tree diagram

Tossing the die Flipping the coin Flipping the coin

Elements
once once twice
H H 1HH
1 T 1HT
H 1TH
T
T 1TT
H ------ 2H
2
T ------ 2T
H 3HH
H
T 3HT
3
H 3TH
T
T 3TT
4 H ------ 4H
T ------ 4T
H 5HH
H
T 5HT
5
H 5TH
T
T 5TT
6 H ------ 6H
T ------ 6T

𝑆 = {1𝐻𝐻, 1𝐻𝑇, 1𝑇𝐻, 1𝑇𝑇, 2𝐻, 2𝑇, 3𝐻𝐻, 3𝐻𝑇, 3𝑇𝐻, 3𝑇𝑇, 4𝐻, 4𝑇, 5𝐻𝐻, 5𝐻𝑇, 5𝑇𝐻, 5𝑇𝑇, 6𝐻, 6𝑇}

Illustration No. 3

For the sample space of illustration no. 2 above,

a. List the elements corresponding to the event A that a number less than 3 occurs
on the die.
b. List the elements corresponding to the event B that 2 tails occur.
c. List the elements corresponding to the event A’.
d. List the elements corresponding to the event A’∩ B.
e. List the elements corresponding to the event AUB.

Solution:
𝑆 = {1𝐻𝐻, 1𝐻𝑇, 1𝑇𝐻, 1𝑇𝑇, 2𝐻, 2𝑇, 3𝐻𝐻, 3𝐻𝑇, 3𝑇𝐻, 3𝑇𝑇, 4𝐻, 4𝑇, 5𝐻𝐻, 5𝐻𝑇, 5𝑇𝐻, 5𝑇𝑇, 6𝐻, 6𝑇}
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a. 𝐴 = {1𝐻𝐻, 1𝐻𝑇, 1𝑇𝐻, 1𝑇𝑇, 2𝐻, 2𝑇}
b. 𝐵 = {1𝑇𝑇, 3𝑇𝑇, 5𝑇𝑇}
c. 𝐴′ = {3𝐻𝐻, 3𝐻𝑇, 3𝑇𝐻, 3𝑇𝑇, 4𝐻, 4𝑇, 5𝐻𝐻, 5𝐻𝑇, 5𝑇𝐻, 5𝑇𝑇, 6𝐻, 6𝑇}
d. 𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵 = {3𝑇𝑇, 5𝑇𝑇}
e. 𝐴𝑈𝐵 = {1𝐻𝐻, 1𝐻𝑇, 1𝑇𝐻, 1𝑇𝑇, 2𝐻, 2𝑇, 3𝑇, 5𝑇𝑇}

COUNTING SAMPLE POINTS TECHNIQUES

These are techniques in the determination of the number of sample points (elements) of
a balanced statistical experiment.

1. Multiplication Rule (basic counting rule)

If an operation can be performed in n1 ways, and if for each of these a second

operation can be performed in n2 ways, and if for each of these a kth operation can be
performed in nk ways, then the operations can be performed together in n1n2 …nk
ways.
𝑁 = 𝑛1 𝑛2 𝑛3 . . . . 𝑛𝑘

2. Permutation – is an arrangement of all or part of a set of objects.

a. The number of permutations of n distinct objects is n.

𝑛! = 𝑛(𝑛 − 1)(𝑛 − 2)(𝑛 − 3) … … . (1)

b. The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken r at a time is

𝑛!
𝑛𝑃𝑟 =
(𝑛 − 𝑟)!

c. The number of permutations of n distinct objects arranged in a circle is

𝑁 = (𝑛 − 1)

d. The number of distinct permutations of n things of which n1 are of one kind,

n2 of a second kind ….. nk of the kth kind is

𝑛!
𝑁=
𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! 𝑛3 !. . . 𝑛𝑘 !

3. The number of ways of partitioning a set of n objects into r cells with n1 elements
in the first cell, n2 elements in the second, and so forth is

n 𝑛!
( )=
𝑛1 𝑛2 𝑛3 . . . 𝑛𝑟 𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! 𝑛3 !. . . 𝑛𝑟 !

4. The number of combinations of n distinct objects taken r at a time is

𝑛! 𝑛
𝑛𝐶𝑟 = =( )
𝑟! (𝑛 − 𝑟)! 𝑟

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Reference: Intro to Statistics by R. Walpole Lecture Notes 3
Illustrative problem no. 1

How many sample points are in the sample space when a pair of dice is thrown once?

Solution: multiplication rule

Let n1 = the number of elements when the first die is tossed = 6

n2 = the number of elements when the second die is tossed = 6

thus, the total number of elements of the sample space is (n 1)(n2)

𝑁 = 𝑛1 𝑛2 = 6(6) = 36

Tree diagram illustrated

First die
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 1–1 2–1 3–1 4–1 5–1 6–1
Second die

2 1–2 2–2 3–2 4–2 5–2 6–2

3 1–3 2–3 3–3 4–3 5–3 6–3
4 1–4 2–4 3–4 4–4 5–4 6–4
5 1–5 2–5 3–5 4–5 5–5 6–5
6 1–6 2–6 3–6 4–6 5–6 6–6

Sample Space, S = 36 outcomes

Illustrative problem no.2

If a multiple-choice test consists of 5 questions with 4 possible answers of which only one
is correct, (a) how many different ways can a student check off one answer to each
question? (b) How many ways can a student check off one answer to each question and
get all the questions wrong?

Solution: multiplication rule

a. 𝑁 = 𝑛1 𝑛2 𝑛3 𝑛4 𝑛5

Let n1 = the number of ways question 1 can be answered = 4

n2 = the number of ways question 2 can be answered = 4
n3 = the number of ways question 3 can be answered = 4
n4 = the number of ways question 4 can be answered = 4
n5 = the number of ways question 5 can be answered = 4

thus, 𝑁 = 𝑛1 𝑛2 𝑛3 𝑛4 𝑛5 = (4)(4)(4)(4)(4) = 1024 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠

b. Since there is only one correct answer, a specific question can be answered wrong in
three ways
𝑁 = 𝑛1 𝑛2 𝑛3 𝑛4 𝑛5

Let n1 = the number of ways question 1 can be answered wrong = 3

n2 = the number of ways question 2 can be answered wrong = 3
n3 = the number of ways question 3 can be answered wrong = 3
n4 = the number of ways question 4 can be answered wrong = 3
n5 = the number of ways question 5 can be answered wrong = 3

thus, 𝑁 = 𝑛1 𝑛2 𝑛3 𝑛4 𝑛5 = (3)(3)(3)(3)(3) = 243 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠

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Reference: Intro to Statistics by R. Walpole Lecture Notes 3
Illustrative problem no. 3

In how many ways can 7 scientists be assigned to one triple and two double hotel rooms?

Solution: Partitioning or Celling

n=7
Triple room Double room Double room
n1 = 3 n2 = 2 n3 = 2

n 𝑛!
𝑁=( )=
𝑛1 𝑛2 𝑛3 . . . 𝑛𝑟 𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! 𝑛3 !. . . 𝑛𝑟 !

𝑛! 7!
𝑁= = = 210 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠
𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! 𝑛3 ! 3! 2! 2!

Illustrative problem no.4

From 4 chemists and 3 physicists find the number of committees that can be formed
consisting of two chemists and one physicist.

Solution: a combination of multiplication rule and combinations

Operation 1 Operation 2
(selecting two chemists (selecting one physicist Number of ways having a
from four chemists) from 3 physicists) committee with two
Chemists, n1 = 4 Physicists, n2 = 3 chemists and one physicist
r1 = 2 r2 =1 (multiplication rule)
(combination) (combination)
𝑛1 !
𝑛1 𝐶𝑟1 = 𝑛2 !
𝑟1 ! (𝑛1 − 𝑟1 )! 𝑛2 𝐶𝑟2 =
𝑟2 ! (𝑛2 − 𝑟2 )!
4!
𝑛1 𝐶𝑟1 = =6 3! 𝑁 = 𝑁1 𝑁2
2! (4 − 2)! 𝑛2 𝐶𝑟2 = =3
1! (3 − 1)! 𝑁 = (6)(3) = 𝟏𝟖 𝒘𝒂𝒚𝒔
𝑁1 = 6
𝑁2 = 3

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Reference: Intro to Statistics by R. Walpole Lecture Notes 3
Illustrative problem no. 5

How many 4-digit numbers can be formed from the digits 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 if each
digit can be used only once? How many of these are odd numbers? How many are greater
than 4440?

Solution: multiplication rule

a. Four-digit distinct numbers

Thousand’s
Hundred’s place Ten’s place One’s place
number
Four -

place
digit

we can put any of we can put any of we can put any of we can put any of
the given numbers the given numbers the given numbers the given numbers
except zero including zero including zero including zero
(1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
If we will fill up this If we will fill up this If we will fill up If we will fill up
place first, there place next to the this place next this place last,
will be 6 possible thousand’s place, after the there will be 4
ways to do it. there will be 6 thousand’s and possible ways to
possible ways to hundred’s do it. Zero is
Number of do it. Zero is places, there will included and
ways by included and one be 5 possible three of the non-
which we can of the non-zero ways to do it. zero digits were
put a number digit was already Zero is included already used in
in any of the used in the and two of the the thousand’s,
places thousand’s place. non-zero digits hundred’s, and
were already ten’s places.
used in the
thousand’s and
hundred’s
places.
n1 = 6 n2 = 6 n3 = 5 n4 = 4
Number of
four-digit
distinct (multiplication rule)
numbers that 𝑁 = 𝑛1 𝑛2 𝑛3 𝑛4 = (6)(6)(5)(4) = 720 𝑓𝑜𝑢𝑟 − 𝑑𝑖𝑔𝑖𝑡 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑡 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑠
can be
formed

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Reference: Intro to Statistics by R. Walpole Lecture Notes 3
b. Four-digit even distinct numbers
Thousand’s
Hundred’s place Ten’s place One’s place
Four -digit place
number we can put any of we can put any
we can put any of we can put any
the given of the given
the given numbers of the given odd
numbers numbers
except zero numbers
including zero including zero
(1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, (1, 3, 5)
If we will fill up this If we will fill up this 6) If we will fill up
next after the one’s place next after If we will fill up this place first,
place, there will be the one’s and this place last, there will be 3
5 possible ways to thousand’s there will be 4 possible ways to
Number of do it. One of the places, there will possible ways to do it.
ways by non-zero digit was be 5 possible do it. Zero is
which we can already used in the ways to do it. Zero included and
put a number one’s place. is included and three of the non-
in any of the two of the non- zero digits were
places zero digit were already used in
already used in the one’s,
the one’s and thousand’s, and
thousand’s hundred’s
places. places.
n2 = 5 n3 = 5 n4 = 4 n1 = 3
Number of
four-digit
even distinct (multiplication rule)
numbers that 𝑁 = 𝑛1 𝑛2 𝑛3 𝑛4 = (3)(5)(5)(4) = 300 𝑓𝑜𝑢𝑟 − 𝑑𝑖𝑔𝑖𝑡 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑡 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑠
can be
formed

c. Four-digit distinct numbers greater than 4440 with thousand’s place digit greater
than 4
Thousand’s
Hundred’s place Ten’s place One’s place
number
Four -

place
digit

we can put any of we can put any of we can put any of we can put any of
the given numbers the given numbers the given numbers the given numbers
greater than 4 including zero including zero including zero
(5, 6) (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
If we will fill up this If we will fill up this If we will fill up this If we will fill up this
place first, there place next after place next after the place last, after the
will be 2 possible the thousand’s thousand’s and thousand’s,
ways to do it. places, there will hundred’s places, hundred’s and
Number of there will be 5 ten’s places, there
be 6 possible
ways by possible ways to will be 4 possible
ways to do it. Zero do it. Zero is
which we can ways to do it. Zero
is included and included and two is included and
put a number
one of the non- of the non-zero three of the non-
in any of the
zero digit was digits were already zero digits were
places
already used in used in the already used in the
the thousand’s thousand’s, and thousand’s,
place. hundred’s places. hundred’s, and
ten’s places.
n1 = 2 n2 = 6 n3 = 5 n4 = 4
Number of
four-digit
(multiplication rule)
even distinct
𝑁 = 𝑛1 𝑛2 𝑛3 𝑛4 = (2)(6)(5)(4) = 240
numbers that
𝑓𝑜𝑢𝑟 − 𝑑𝑖𝑔𝑖𝑡 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑡 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑛 4440 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑑𝑖𝑔𝑖𝑡𝑠 5 𝑜𝑟 6
can be
formed

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d. Four-digit distinct numbers greater than 4440 with thousand’s place digit equal to
4
Thousand’s
Hundred’s place Ten’s place One’s place
number
Four -
place
digit
we can put any of we can put any of we can put any of
We can only put 4 the given numbers the given numbers the given numbers
greater than 4 including zero including zero
(4) (5, 6) (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
If we will fill up this If we will fill up this If we will fill up If we will fill up
place first, there place next after this place next this place last,
will be 1 possible the thousand’s after the after the
way to do it. places, there will thousand’s and thousand’s,
be 2 possible hundred’s hundred’s and
Number of ways to do it. places, there will ten’s places,
ways by be 5 possible there will be 4
which we can ways to do it. possible ways to
put a number Zero is included do it. Zero is
in any of the and two of the included and
places non-zero digits three of the non-
were already zero digits were
used in the already used in
thousand’s, and the thousand’s,
hundred’s hundred’s, and
places. ten’s places.
n1 = 1 n2 = 2 n3 = 5 n4 = 4
Number of
four-digit
(multiplication rule)
even distinct
𝑁 = 𝑛1 𝑛2 𝑛3 𝑛4 = (1)(2)(5)(4) = 40
numbers that
𝑓𝑜𝑢𝑟 − 𝑑𝑖𝑔𝑖𝑡 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑡 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑛 4440 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑑𝑖𝑔𝑖𝑡 4
can be
formed

Thus,
The total number of four-digit distinct number greater than 4440 is 280, (240 + 40).

Illustrative problem no. 6

How many ways can 6 people be lined up to get on a bus? If a certain 3 persons insist on
following each other, how many ways are possible?

Solution:
a. Permutation of n distinct objects in a line, how many ways can 6 people be lined?

F E D C B A BUS

𝑁 = 𝑛! = 6! = 6(5)(4)(3)(2)(1) = 𝟕𝟐𝟎 𝒘𝒂𝒚𝒔

b. Combination of permutation and multiplication rule, how many ways are possible
if a certain 3 persons insist on following each other?

F E D C B A BUS

First operation
Let persons F, E, and D are the 3 persons insisting on following each other, the
three persons can be arranged in 3! = 6 ways, i.e. F E D, E F D, F D E,
E D F, D E F, D F E.

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Second operation
The six persons can be arranged, considering the three persons insisting on
following each other, in 4! = 24 ways.
i.e. F E D C B A, C F E D B A, C B F E D A, . . . . . . . .

Thus, the first operation and the second operation can be done in (3!)(4!) = 144
ways.
i.e. F E D C B A, E F D C B A, F D E C B A, E D F C B A,

D E F C B A, D F E C B A, . . . . . . .

𝑵 = 𝟑! 𝟒! = 𝟏𝟒𝟒 𝒘𝒂𝒚𝒔

Illustrative problem no. 7

How many distinct permutations can be made from the letters of the word MISSIPPISSI?

Solution: permutation of n things with n1 of the first kind, n2 of the second kind, . . . .

𝑛!
𝑁=
𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! 𝑛3 !. . . 𝑛𝑘 !
Where:
n = 11
n1 = letter M = 1
n2 = letter I = 4
n3 = letter S = 4
n4 = letter P = 2
𝑛! 11!
𝑁= = = 34650 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠
𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! 𝑛3 ! 𝑛4 ! 1! 4! 4! 2!

Illustrative problem no. 8

In how many ways can 3 oaks, 4 pines, and 2 maples be arranged along a property line
if one does not distinguish between trees of the same kind?

Solution: permutation of n things with n1 of the first kind, n2 of the second kind, . . . .

𝑛!
𝑁=
𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! 𝑛3 !. . . 𝑛𝑘 !
Where:
n=9
n1 = oak trees = 3
n2 = pine trees = 4
n3 = maple trees = 2

𝑛! 9!
𝑁= = = 1260 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠
𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! 𝑛3 ! 3! 4! 2!

Illustrative problem no. 9

In how many ways can six different trees be planted in a circle?

Solution: permutation of n distinct things in a circular manner

𝑁 = (𝑛 − 1)
𝑁 = (6 − 1)
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𝑁 = (5) = 120 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠

Illustrative problem no. 10

From 4 red, 5 green, and 7 yellow apples, how many selections of 9 apples are possible
if 3 of each color are to be selected?

Solution: multiplication rule and combination

Color Red Apples Green Apples Yellow Apples

Total n1 = 4 n2 = 5 n3 = 7
Number to be
r1 = 3 r2 = 3 r3 = 3
selected
Number of 𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! 𝑛3 !
selections for each
color 𝑟1 ! (𝑛1 − 𝑟1 )! 𝑟2 ! (𝑛2 − 𝑟2 )! 𝑟3 ! (𝑛3 − 𝑟3 )!
𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! 𝑛3 !
𝑁=( )( )( )
𝑟1 ! (𝑛1 − 𝑟1 )! 𝑟2 ! (𝑛2 − 𝑟2 )! 𝑟3 ! (𝑛3 − 𝑟3 )!
Total number of
selections of 9 4! 5! 7!
apples from the 𝑁=( )( )( )
3! (4 − 3)! 3! (5 − 3)! 3! (7 − 3)!
population (16
apples) 𝑁 = (4)(10)(35) = 1400 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠

PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT

The probability (likelihood of occurrence) of an event A is the sum of the weights of all
sample points in A divided by the sum of weights of all sample points in the sample space,
S.

0  P(A)  1 ; P() = 0 ; P(S) = 1

 If an experiment can result in any one of N different equally likely outcomes, and if
exactly n of these outcomes corresponds to event A, then the probability of event A is

𝑛
𝑃(𝐴) =
𝑁
If elements have equal weights

P  A 
number of elements in event A
number of elements in the sample space, S

If elements have unequal weights

P  A 
total weights of the elements in event A
total weights of the elements in the sample space, S

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ADDITIVE RULES

 If A and B are any two events, then 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

 For three events A, B, and C

P A  B  C   P A  PB  PC   P A  C   PB  C   P A  B  P A  B  C 

 If A, B, C, and D are mutually exclusive events, then

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶 ∪ 𝐷 ∪ 𝐸) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐶) + 𝑃(𝐷) + 𝑃(𝐸)

 If A and A’ are complementary events, then

𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐴′) = 1

Illustrative problem no. 1

A 5-sided die with sides numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 is constructed so that the 1 and 5
occur twice as often as the 2 and 4, which occur three times as often as the 3. What is
the probability that a perfect square occurs when the die is tossed once?

Solution:
𝑆 = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 }, so, the total weight of the sample space, S is 19w.
6w 3w 1w 3w 6w

Let: X = event that the occurrence is a perfect square

𝑋 = { 1, 4 }, so, the total weight of the event X is 9w.
6w 3w

𝑛 9𝑤 9
𝑃(𝑋) = = =
𝑁 19𝑤 19

Illustrative problem no. 2

If each coded item in a catalog begins with 3 distinct letters followed by 4 distinct nonzero
digits, find the probability of randomly selecting one of these coded items with the first
letter a vowel and the last digit even?

Solution:
Determine the number of elements of the sample space, S

Distinct Letters Distinct non-zero digits

Coded catalog
(A – Z) (1 – 9)
Number of ways putting a letter and
26 25 24 9 8 7 6
a digit to the different places
Total elements of the sample
𝑆 = (26)(25)(24)(9)(8)(7)(6)
space, S

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Reference: Intro to Statistics by R. Walpole Lecture Notes 3
Determine the elements of event X, event that the coded catalog first letter is a vowel and
the last digit is an even number.

Distinct Letters Distinct non-zero digits

Coded catalog
(A – Z) (1 – 9)
Number of ways putting a letter
(a,e,i,o,u) (2,4,6,8)
and a digit to the different 25 24 8 7 6
5 4
places
Total elements of event X 𝑋 = (5)(25)(24)(8)(7)(6)(4)

Thus,
𝑛 (5)(25)(24)(8)(7)(6)(4) (5)(4) 10
𝑃(𝑋) = = = =
𝑁 (26)(25)(24)(9)(8)(7)(6) (26)(9) 117

Illustrative problem no. 3

A pair of dice is tossed. Find the probability of getting (a) a total of 8, and (b) at most a
total of 5.

Tree diagram illustrated

First die
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 1–1 2–1 3–1 4–1 5–1 6–1
Second die

2 1–2 2–2 3–2 4–2 5–2 6–2

3 1–3 2–3 3–3 4–3 5–3 6–3
4 1–4 2–4 3–4 4–4 5–4 6–4
5 1–5 2–5 3–5 4–5 5–5 6–5
6 1–6 2–6 3–6 4–6 5–6 6–6

Sample Space, S = 36 outcomes

Tree diagram illustrated (sum of the outcome on the two dice)
First die
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Second die

2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Sample space, 𝑆 = {36 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠}

Let
X = event that the total of the two dice outcomes is equal to 8
Y = event that the total of the two dice outcomes is at most 5
Thus,
𝑋 = {2 − 6, 3 − 8, 4 − 4, 5 − 3, 6 − 2} = {5 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠}

𝑌 = {1 − 1, 1 − 2, 1 − 3, 1 − 4, 2 − 1, 2 − 2, 2 − 3, 3 − 1, 3 − 2, 4 − 1}
𝑌 = {10 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠}
And

𝑛 5 5
𝑃(𝑋) = = =
𝑁 36 36

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Reference: Intro to Statistics by R. Walpole Lecture Notes 3
𝑛 10 5
𝑃(𝑌) = = =
𝑁 36 18

Illustrative problem no. 4

In a certain federal prison, it is known that 2/3 of the inmates are under 25 years of age.
It is also known that 3/5 of the inmates are male and the 5/8 of the inmates are female or
25 years of age or older. What is the probability that a prisoner selected at random from
this prison is female and at least 25 years old?

Solution:
Let: X = event that the inmate is under 25 years old
X’ = event that the inmate is at least 25 years old – complementary event of
event X.
Y = event that the inmate is male
Y’ = event that the inmate is female – complementary event of event Y.
Given:
2
𝑃(𝑋) = 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑎𝑡 𝑚𝑜𝑠𝑡 24 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 𝑜𝑙𝑑
3
2 1
𝑃(𝑋′) = 𝑃(𝑆) − 𝑃(𝑋) = 1 − = 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 25 𝑦𝑟𝑠 𝑜𝑙𝑑
3 3
3
𝑃(𝑌) = 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒
5
3 2
𝑃(𝑌 ′ ) = 𝑃(𝑆) − 𝑃(𝑌) = 1 − = 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒
5 5
5
𝑃(𝑌 ′ 𝑈𝑋 ′ ) = 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝒐𝒓 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑡 25 𝑦𝑟𝑠 𝑜𝑙𝑑
8

Required:
𝑃(𝑌 ′ ∩ 𝑋 ′ ) = 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 25 𝑦𝑟𝑠 𝑜𝑙𝑑

𝑃(𝑌 ′ ∩ 𝑋 ′ ) = 𝑃(𝑌 ′ ) + 𝑃(𝑋 ′ ) − 𝑃(𝑌 ′ 𝑈𝑋 ′ )

2 1 5 𝟏𝟑
𝑃(𝑌 ′ ∩ 𝑋 ′ ) = + − =
5 3 8 𝟏𝟐𝟎

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

 The conditional probability of B, given A, denoted by P(B/A), is defined by the equation

𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
𝑃(𝐵/𝐴) = ; if 𝑃(𝐴) > 0
𝑃(𝐴)

 Two events A and B are independent if and only if:

P(B/A) = P(B) and P(A/B) = P(A)

 Multiplicative Rule

If in an experiment the events A and B can both occur, then

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P A  B  P APB / A  PBP A / B

If A, B, C, D, and E are independent events, then

P A  B  C  D  E   P APBPC PDPE 

Illustrative problem no. 1

A random sample of 200 adults are classified below according to sex and the level of
education attained.
Male Female
Elementary 38 45
Secondary 28 50
College 22 17

If a person is picked at random from this group, find the probability that
(a) the person is a male, given that the person has a secondary education;
(b) the person does not have a college degree, given that the person is a female.

Solution:
Let: X = the event that the person is a male
X’ = the event that the person is a female – complementary event of event X
Y = the event that the person has a secondary education
Z = the event that the person has a college degree
Z’ = the event that the person does not have a college degree

Male Female Total

Elementary 38 45 83
Secondary 28 50 78
College 22 17 39
Total 88 112 200

a. the probability that the person is a male, given that the person has a secondary
education

𝑃(𝑋 ∩ 𝑌)
𝑃(𝑋/𝑌) =
𝑃(𝑌)

𝑆 = {200 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠}

𝑌 = {28 + 50 = 78 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠}

𝑋 = {38 + 28 + 22 = 88 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠}

(𝑋 ∩ 𝑌) = {28 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠}

78 39
𝑃(𝑌) = =
200 100
88 11
𝑃(𝑋) = =
200 25

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28 7
𝑃(𝑋 ∩ 𝑌) = =
200 50
Thus,

7
𝑃(𝑋 ∩ 𝑌) 50 14
𝑃(𝑋/𝑌) = = =
𝑃(𝑌) 39 39
100

b. the probability that the person does not have a college degree, given that the
person is a female.

′ ′
𝑃(𝑍 ′ ∩ 𝑋 ′ )
𝑃(𝑍 /𝑋 ) =
𝑃(𝑋 ′ )

𝑍 ′ = {83 + 78 = 161 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠}

𝑋 ′ = {45 + 50 + 17 = 112 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠}

(𝑍 ′ ∩ 𝑋 ′ ) = {45 + 50 = 95 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠}

161
𝑃(𝑍 ′ ) =
200
112 14
𝑃(𝑋 ′ ) = =
200 25
95
𝑃(𝑍 ′ ∩ 𝑋 ′ ) =
200
Thus,

′ ′
95
𝑃(𝑍 ∩ 𝑋 ) 95
𝑃(𝑍 ′ /𝑋 ′ ) = ′
= 200 =
𝑃(𝑋 ) 14 112
25

Illustrative problem no. 2

The probability that an automobile being filled with gasoline will also need an oil change
is 0.25; the probability that it needs a new filter is 0.40; and the probability that both the
oil and filter need changing is 0.14. (a) If the oil had to be changed, what is the probability
that a new oil filter is needed? (b) If a new filter is needed, what is the probability that the
oil has to be changed?
Solution:

Let: X = the event that the automobile needs an oil change

Y = the event that the automobile needs a new filter
Given: 𝑃(𝑋) = 0.25
𝑃(𝑌) = 0.40
𝑃(𝑋 ∩ 𝑌) = 0.14

Required:
a. If the oil had to be changed, what is the probability that a new oil filter is needed?

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Reference: Intro to Statistics by R. Walpole Lecture Notes 3
𝑃(𝑋 ∩ 𝑌) 0.14 14
𝑃(𝑌/𝑋) = = =
𝑃(𝑋) 0.25 25

b. If a new filter is needed, what is the probability that the oil has to be changed?

𝑃(𝑋 ∩ 𝑌) 0.14 14
𝑃(𝑌/𝑋) = = =
𝑃(𝑋) 0.25 25

Illustrative problem no. 3

The probability that a doctor correctly diagnoses a particular illness is 0.7. Given that the
doctor makes an incorrect diagnosis, the probability that the patient enters a lawsuit is
0.9. What is the probability that the doctor makes an incorrect diagnosis and the patient
sues?

Solution:

Let: X = the event that the doctor correctly diagnoses an illness

Y = the event that the patient enters a lawsuit
Given: 𝑃(𝑋) = 0.70
𝑃(𝑌/𝑋′) = 0.90

Required:
𝑃(𝑋′ ∩ 𝑌)
= 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑑𝑜𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑎𝑘𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑛 𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑔𝑛𝑜𝑠𝑖𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑝𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑠𝑢𝑒𝑠
Thus,

𝑃(𝑋′ ∩ 𝑌)
𝑃(𝑌/𝑋′) =
𝑃(𝑋′)

𝑃(𝑋 ′ ∩ 𝑌) = 𝑃(𝑋 ′ )𝑃(𝑌/𝑋 ′ )

𝑃(𝑋 ′ ∩ 𝑌) = [𝑃(𝑆) − 𝑃(𝑋)]𝑃(𝑌/𝑋 ′ )

𝑃(𝑋 ′ ∩ 𝑌) = [1.0 − 0.7](0.9) = 0.27

Illustrative problem no. 4

The probability that a person visiting his dentist will have an X-ray is 0.60; the probability
that a person who has an X-ray will also have a cavity filled is 0.30; and the probability
that a person who has an X-ray and a cavity filled will also have a tooth extracted is 0.01.
What is the probability that a person visiting his dentist will have an X-ray, a cavity filled,
and a tooth extracted?
Solution:
Let: X = the event that a person visiting his dentist will have an X-ray
Y = the event that a person visiting his dentist will have a cavity filled
Z = the event that a person visiting his dentist will have tooth extraction

Given: 𝑃(𝑋) = 0.60

𝑃(𝑌/𝑋) = 0.30
𝑃(𝑍/𝑋 ∩ 𝑌) = 0.10

Required:
𝑃(𝑋 ∩ 𝑌 ∩ 𝑍) =?
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Reference: Intro to Statistics by R. Walpole Lecture Notes 3

𝑃(𝑋 ∩ 𝑌 ∩ 𝑍) = 𝑃(𝑋)𝑃(𝑌/𝑋)𝑃(𝑍/𝑋 ∩ 𝑌)

𝑃(𝑋 ∩ 𝑌 ∩ 𝑍) = (0.6)(0.3)(0.1) = 0.018

Illustrative problem no. 5

If the probability that Tom will be alive in 20 years is 0.7 and the probability that Nancy
will be alive in 20 years is 0.9, what is the probability that neither will be alive in 20 years?

Solution:
Let: X = the event that Tom will be alive in 20 years
Y = the event that Nancy will be alive in 20 years
Given: 𝑃(𝑋) = 0.7
𝑃(𝑌) = 0.9
Required:
𝑃(𝑋 ′ ∩ 𝑌 ′ ) =?
Tom and Nancy are two different persons, they are considered as independent events,
thus

𝑃(𝑋 ′ ∩ 𝑌 ′ ) = [𝑃(𝑆) − 𝑃(𝑋)][𝑃(𝑆) − 𝑃(𝑌)]

𝑃(𝑋 ′ ∩ 𝑌 ′ ) = [1.0 − 0.7][1.0 − 0.9] = 0.3

Illustrative problem no. 6

The probability that the lady of the house is home when the Avon representative calls is
0.6. Given that the lady of the house is home, the probability that she makes a purchase
is 0.4. Find the probability that the lady of the house is home and makes a purchase when
the Avon representative calls.

Solution:
Let: X = the event that the lady of the house is home
Y = the event that the lady of the house makes a purchase
Given: 𝑃(𝑋) = 0.6
𝑃(𝑌/𝑋) = 0.4
Required:
𝑃(𝑋 ∩ 𝑌) = 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑙𝑎𝑑𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑠𝑒 𝑖𝑠 ℎ𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑚𝑎𝑘𝑒𝑠 𝑎 𝑝𝑢𝑟𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑠𝑒
Thus,
𝑃(𝑋 ∩ 𝑌)
𝑃(𝑌/𝑋) =
𝑃(𝑋)

𝑃(𝑋 ∩ 𝑌) = 𝑃(𝑋)𝑃(𝑌/𝑋) = (0.6)(0.4) = 0.24

18 | 1 8 cblamsis