Network Analysis: CPM

UNIT 14 NETWORK ANALYSIS: and PERT

CPM AND PERT

NOTES
Structure
14.0 Introduction
14.1 Objectives
14.2 Introduction to Network Concept
14.2.1 Development of Network Analysis - CPM and PERT
14.3 Network Analysis and Rules of Network Construction
14.3.1 Rules of Network Construction
14.3.2 Time Analysis
14.3.3 Network Diagram
14.4 Critical Path Method (CPM)
14.4.1 Computations for Critical Path
14.4.2 Applications of CPM Analysis
14.5 Programme Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
14.5.1 PERT Procedure
14.6 Comparison and Limitations of PERT and CPM
14.7 Answers to Check Your Progress Questions
14.8 Summary
14.9 Key Words
14.10 Self Assessment Questions and Exercises
14.11 Further Readings

14.0 INTRODUCTION

Network analysis is a method of planning and controlling projects by recording

their interdependence in a diagrammatic form that enables each fundamental
problem involved to be tackled separately. Network analysis clearly shows the
interdependences between jobs to be performed in contest of a project and thus
enables people to see not only the overall plan but the ways in which their own
activities depend upon or influence those of others. It allows the total requirements
of men, materials, and money, machinery and space resources to be readily
calculated and also indicates where the delaying of non-critical jobs (i.e., jobs
which do not immediately affect the duration of the project) may be used for
optimal utilisation of resources. Network analysis, as stated above, is a technique
related to sequencing problems which are concerned with minimizing some measure
or performance of the system such as the total completion time of the project, the
overall cost and so on. The technique is useful for describing the elements in a
complex situation for the purpose of designing, planning, coordinating controlling
and making decision. Network analysis is especially suited for projects which are
not routine or repetitive and which will be conducted only once or a few times. A
network is a graphic representation of logically and sequentially connected arrows
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Network Analysis: CPM and nodes, representing the activities and events, respectively of a project. An
and PERT
event is the beginning and end points of an activity and is represented by a node.
Learn how to construct a network after going through the rules for network
construction.
NOTES
Network scheduling is a technique used for planning and scheduling large
projects in the field of construction, maintenance, fabrication, etc. It is a tool for
minimizing problems in the execution and controlling critical factors in a project.
Program Evaluation Review Technique (PERT) and Critical Path Method (CPM)
are two planning and control techniques for keeping a project schedule on track
to complete within the scheduled time.
The Critical Path Method (CPM), or Critical Path Analysis (CPA), is
an algorithm for scheduling a set of project activities. It is commonly used in
conjunction with the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT). A critical
path is determined by identifying the longest stretch of dependent activities and
measuring the time required to complete them from start to finish. The Program
(or project) Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is a statistical tool used
in project management, which was designed to analyse and represent
the tasks involved in completing a given project.
In this unit, you will study about the concept of network scheduling by
PERT/ CPM, network basic components, drawing network, Critical Path Analysis
or CPM, PERT analysis, and the distinction between the PERT and CPM.

14.1 OBJECTIVES
After going through this unit, you will be able to:
 Know how to do network analysis for large projects
 Understand PERT and CPM for handling projects
 Construct a network of activities and events for analysis
 Understand the importance of CPM and PERT analysis
 Explain the PERT procedure
 Compare PERT and CPM

14.2 INTRODUCTION TO NETWORK CONCEPT

Meaning and Objectives of Network Analysis

Network analysis is a method of planning and controlling projects by recording their
interdependence in a diagrammatic form that enables each fundamental problem
involved to be tackled separately. The main objectives of network analysis are:
1. To foster increased orderliness and consistency in the planning and evaluating
of all areas in the project
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 2. To provide an automatic mechanism for the identification of potential trouble Network Analysis: CPM
and PERT
spots in all areas which arise as a result of a failure in one.
3. To structure a method to give operational flexibility to the programme by
allowing for experimentation in a simulated sense.
NOTES
4. To effect speedy handling and analysis of the integrated data, thus allowing
for expeditious correction of recognised trouble areas in project management.
Network analyses, thus, plays an important role in project management.
Through network analysis, which is a graphic depiction of ‘Activities’ and
‘Events’ related to a project, planning, scheduling and control of project
becomes easier and effective.
Steps Involved in Network Analysis
Network analyses achieve their purpose in three broad steps:
1. They present in diagrammatic form, a picture of all the jobs (or activities) to
be accomplished and of their dependence on one another. The way in which
this is done is to construct what is known as a ‘Network Diagram’ in which
each job is represented by an arrow on the diagram. The way in which the
arrows are linked indicates the dependencies of the jobs on each other.
2. They consider the limitations imposed by the availability of resources viz.,
of men, machine, money and material and in view of these estimate the time
required to do each job.
3. They apply the estimated job time to the network diagram and then analyse
the network. Analysis in this case means the calculation of the total length of
time involved in each path through the network.
Significance of Network Analysis
1. Network analysis clearly shows the interdependences between jobs to be
performed in contest of a project and thus enables people to see not only
the overall plan but the ways in which their own activities depend upon or
influence those of others.
2. By splitting up the project into smaller activities, it assist in the estimation of
their durations and thereby leading to more accurate target dates.
3. It enables stricter controls to be applied since any deviation from schedule
is quickly noticed.
4. It allows the total requirements of men, materials, money, machinery and
space resources to be readily calculated and also indicates where the delaying
of non-critical jobs (i.e., jobs which do not immediately affect the duration
of the project) may be used for optimal utilisation of resources.
5. Its identification of the critical path has two advantages: (i) If the completion
date has to be advanced, attention can be concentrated on speeding up the

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Network Analysis: CPM relatively few ‘Critical’ jobs, (ii) Money is not wasted on speeding up ‘Non
and PERT
Critical’ jobs.
6. It allows modifications of policy to be built easily and their impact can also
be assessed quickly.
NOTES
7. It allows schedules to be based on considerations of costs so as to complete
projects in a given time at minimum expense.
8. It separates the planning of the sequence of jobs from the scheduling of
times for the jobs and thus it makes planning and scheduling effective.
Limitations of Network Analysis
The only real disadvantage of network analysis as a planning tool is that it is a
tedious and exacting task if attempted manually. The calculations are done in terms
of the sequence of activities and, if this is all that is required, a project involving
several hundred activities may be attempted manually. However, the possibility of
error is high, and if the results are to be sorted, the cost of manual operation
rapidly becomes uneconomic. The consideration of various alternative plans also
becomes impossible, because of the large volumes involved.
But now we have standard computer programmes for network analysis,
which can handle project plans of upto 5000 activities and more, and produce
‘Output’ in various forms. Even then it must be emphasised, that a computer only
assists with the calculation and with the printing of pirns of operation sorted into
various orders. The project manager is still responsible for the planning and must
still make me necessary decisions based upon the information supplied by the
computer. The computer can not take over this responsibility. Equally important is
the fact that the computer output is only as accurate as its input which is supplied
in the first instance by human beings.
14.2.1 Development of Network Analysis - CPM and PERT
Network analysis, as stated above, is a technique related to sequencing problems
which are concerned with minimizing some measure or performance of the system
such as the total completion time of the project, the overall cost and so on. The
technique is useful for describing the elements in a complex situation for the purpose
of designing, planning, coordinating controlling and making decision. Network
analysis is specially suited for projects which are not routine or repetitive and
which will be conducted only once or a few times. Two most popular forms of this
technique now used in many scheduling situations are the Critical Path Method (or
simply CPM) and the Programme Evaluation and Review Technique (popularly
known as PERT).
Critical Path Method or CPM was developed in 1956 at the E.I. du Pont
de Nemours & Co., USA, to aid in the scheduling of routine plant overhaul
maintenance and construction work. This method differentiates between planning
and scheduling. Planning refers to the determination of activities that must be
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accomplished and the order in which such activities should be performed to achieve Network Analysis: CPM
and PERT
the objective of the project. Scheduling refers to the introduction of time into the
plan thereby creating a time table for the various activities to be performed. CPM
uses two time and two cost estimates for each activity (one time-cost estimate for
the normal situation and the other estimate for the crash situation) but does not NOTES
incorporate any statistical analysis in determining such time estimates. CPM
operates on the assumption that there is a precise known time that each activity in
the project will take.
Programme Evaluation and Review Technique or PERT was first
developed in 1958 for use in defence projects specifically in the development of
Polaris fleet ballistic missile programme. But now this technique is very popular in
the hands of project planner and controller. PERT, now assists a business manager
in planning and controlling a project. It allows a manager to calculate the expected
total amount of time that the entire project will take to complete at the stage of
formulation and planning a project and at the same time highlights the critical or the
bottleneck activities in the project so that a manager may either allocate more
resources for them or keep a careful watch on such activities as the project
progresses. In PERT, we usually assume that the time to perform each activity is
uncertain and as such three time estimates (the optimistic, the pessimistic and the
most likely) are used. PERT is often described as an approach of multiple time
estimates to scheduling problems of long-range research and development projects.
PERT incorporates the statistical analysis in determining time estimates and enables
the determination of the probabilities concerning the time by which each activity as
well as the entire project would be completed. As such it can be taken as an
advancement over the CPM. PERT is equally unique as a control device for it
assists the management in controlling a project, once it has begun, by calling attention
as a result of constant review to such delays in activities which might cause a delay
in the project’s completion date.

14.3 NETWORK ANALYSIS AND RULES OF

NETWORK CONSTRUCTION

Network scheduling is a technique used for planning, and scheduling large projects
in the field of construction, maintenance, fabrication, purchasing computer system,
etc. The technique is a method of minimizing the trouble spots such as production,
delays and interruptions, by determining critical factors and coordinating various
parts of the overall job.
There are two basic planning and control technique that utilize a network to
complete a predetermined project or schedule. These are Programme Evaluation
Review Technique (PERT) and Critical Path Method (CPM).
A project is defined as a combination of interrelated activities all of which
must be executed in a certain order for its completion.
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Network Analysis: CPM The work involved in a project can be divided into three phases
and PERT
corresponding to the management functions of planning, scheduling and control.
Planning: This phase involves setting the objectives of the project and the
assumptions to be made. Also it involves the listing of tasks or jobs that must be
NOTES
performed to complete a project under consideration. In this phase, men, machines
and materials required for the project, in addition to the estimates of costs and
duration of the various activities of the project, are also determined.
Scheduling: This consists of laying the activities according to the precedence
order and determining,
(i) The start and finish times for each activity.
(ii) The critical path on which the activities require special attention.
(iii) The slack and float for the non-critical paths.
Controlling: This phase is exercised after the planning and scheduling, which
involves the following:
(i) Making periodical progress reports.
(ii) Reviewing the progress.
(iii) Analysing the status of the project.
(iv) Management decisions regarding updating, crashing and resource allocation.
Basic Terms
To understand the network techniques one should be familiar with few basic
terms of which both CPM and PERT are special applications.
Network: It is the graphic representation of logically and sequentially connected
arrows and nodes representing activities and events of a project. Networks are
also called arrow diagram.
Activity: An activity represents some action and is a time consuming effort
necessary to complete a particular part of the overall project. Thus, each and
every activity has a point of time where it begins and a point where it ends.
It is represented in the network by an arrow,
A j
i

Here, A is called the activity.

Event: The beginning and end points of an activity are called events or nodes.
Event is a point in the time and does not consume any resource. It is represented
by a numbered circle. The head event called the jth event has always a number
higher than the tail event called the ith event.
Activity j
i
Tail Head
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Merge and Burst Events: It is not necessary for an event to be the ending event Network Analysis: CPM
and PERT
of only one activity but can be the ending event of two or more activities. Such
event is defined as a merge event.

NOTES

If the event happens to be the beginning event of two or more activities it is

defined as a burst event.

Preceding, Succeeding and Concurrent Activities: Activities, which must be

accomplished before a given event can occur are termed as preceding activities.
Activities, which cannot be accomplished until an event has occurred are
termed as succeeding activities.
Activities, which can be accomplished concurrently are known as concurrent
activities.
This classification is relative, which means that one activity can be preceding
to a certain event, and the same activity can be succeeding to some other event or
it may be a concurrent activity with one or more activities.
Dummy Activity: Certain activities, which neither consumes time nor resources
but are used simply to represent a connection or a link between the events are
known as dummies. It is shown in the network by a dotted line. The purpose of
introducing dummy activity is as follows:
(i) To maintain uniqueness in the numbering system as every activity may have
distinct set of events by which the activity can be identified.
(ii) To maintain a proper logic in the network.

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Network Analysis: CPM Common Errors
and PERT
Following are the three common errors in a network construction:
Looping (cycling): In a network diagram looping error is also known as cycling
NOTES error. Drawing an endless loop in a network is known as error of looping. A loop
can be formed if an activity were represented as going back in time.

Dangling: To disconnect an activity before the completion of all the activities in a

network diagram is known as dangling.

Redundancy: If a dummy activity is the only activity emanating from an event and
which can be eliminated is known as redundancy.

14.3.1 Rules of Network Construction

There are a number of rules in connection with the handling of events and activities
of a project network that should be followed.
(i) Try to avoid arrows which cross each other.
(ii) Use straight arrows.
(iii) No event can occur until every activity preceding it has been completed.
(iv) An event cannot occur twice, i.e., there must be no loops.
(v) An activity succeeding an event cannot be started until that event has
occurred.
(vi) Use arrows from left to right. Avoid mixing two directions. Vertical and
standing arrows may be used if necessary.
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 (vii) Dummies should be introduced if it is extremely necessary. Network Analysis: CPM
and PERT
(viii) The network has only one entry point called the start event and one point of
emergence called the end or terminal event.
Numbering the Events (Fulkerson’s Rule) NOTES
After the network is drawn in a logical sequence, every event is assigned a number.
The number sequence must reflect the flow of the network. In numbering the
events the following rules should be observed:
(i) Event numbers should be unique.
(ii) Event numbering should be carried out on a sequential basis from left to
right.
(iii) The initial event which has all outgoing arrows with no incoming arrow is
numbered as 1.
(iv) Delete all arrows emerging from all the numbered events. This will create at
least one new start event out of the preceding events.
(v) Number all new start events 2, 3 and so on. Repeat this process until all the
terminal event without any successor activity is reached. Number the terminal
node suitably.
Note: The head of an arrow should always bear a number higher than the one assigned to the
tail of the arrow.
Construction of network
Example 14.1: Construct a network for the project whose activities and their
precedence relationships are as given below:

Activities A B C D E F G H I
Immediate Predecessor – A A – D B,C,E F D G,H

Solution: From the given constraints, it is clear that A, D are the starting activity
and I the terminal activity. B, C are starting with the same event and are both the
predecessors of the activity F. Also E has to be the predecessor of both F and H.
Hence, we have to introduce a dummy activity.

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Network Analysis: CPM
and PERT

NOTES

D1 is the dummy activity.

Finally we have the following network:

Example 14.2: Construct a network for each of the projects whose activities and
their precedence relationships are given below.

Activity A B C D E F G H I J K
Predecessor – – – A B B C D E H,I F,G

Solution: A, B, C are the concurrent activities as they start simultaneously. B

becomes the predecessor of activity E and F. Since the activities J, K have two
preceding activities, dummy may be introduced (if possible).

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 Network Analysis: CPM
and PERT

NOTES

Finally we have,
D H J
A 2 5 8 9

1 B I
E
6 K
3 F
C 7
4 G

Example 14.3: Construct a network of the project whose activities are given as
below.
A<C, D, I; B<G, F; D<G, F; F<H, K; G, H<J; I, J, K<E
Solution: Given A<C which means that C cannot be started until A is completed,
i.e., A is the preceding activity to C. The above constraints can be given in the
following table:
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Network Analysis: CPM
and PERT Activity A B C D E F G H I J K
Predecessor – – A A I, J, K B,D B,D F A G,H F

NOTES A, B are the starting activity, and E is the terminal activity.

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Finally we have, Network Analysis: CPM
and PERT

NOTES

Example 14.4: Construct the network for the project whose activities and
precedence relationship is given below. Show also the dummy activity.

Activities A B C D E F G H I
Immediate Predecessor – – A,B B B A,B F,D F,D C,G

Solution: A, B are concurrent activities as they start simultaneously. I is the terminal

activity. Since the activities C and F are coming from both the activities A, B we
need to introduce a dummy activity.

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Network Analysis: CPM
and PERT

NOTES

Example 14.5: Make a network of the project having activities and precedence
relationship as given below:
A, B, C can start simultaneously,
A<D, I; B<G, F; D<G, F; C<E; E<H, K; F<H, K; G, H<J
Solution: The above constraints can be formatted into a table.
Activity A B C D E F G H I J K
Predecessor Activity – – – A C B, D B, D E,F A G, H E, F

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 Network Analysis: CPM
and PERT

J
NOTES

14.3.2 Time Analysis

Once the network of a project is constructed the time analysis of the network
becomes essential for planning various activities of the project. An activity time is
a forecast of the time an activity is expected to take from its starting point to its
completion (under normal conditions).
We shall use the following notation for basic scheduling computations.
( i, j) = Activity (i, j) with tail event i and head event j
T ij = Estimated completion time of activity (i, j)
(ES)ij = Earliest starting time of activity (i, j)
(EF)ij = Earliest finishing time of activity (i, j)
(LS)ij = Latest starting time of activity (i, j)
(LF)ij = Latest finishing time of activity (i, j)
The basic scheduling computation can be put under the following three groups.
Forward Pass Computations (for earliest event time)
Before starting computations, the occurrence time of the initial network event is
fixed. The forward pass computation yields the earliest start and the earliest finish
time for each activity (i, j) and indirectly the earliest occurrence time for each
event namely Ei. This consists of the following three steps:
Step 1: The computations begin from the start node and move towards the end
node. Let zero be the starting time for the project.
Step 2: Earliest starting time (ES)ij = Ei is the earliest possible time when an
activity can begin assuming that all of the predecessors are also started at their

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Network Analysis: CPM earliest starting time. Earliest finish time of activity (i, j) is the, Earliest starting time
and PERT
+ Activity time
(EF )ij = (ES)ij + tij
NOTES Step 3: Earliest event time for event j is the maximum of the earliest finish time of
all the activities ending at that event.
E j = Max E j tij
i

The computed ‘E’ values are put over the respective rectangle representing
each event.
Backward Pass Computations (for latest allowable time)
The latest event time (L) indicates the time by which all activities entering into that
event must be completed without delaying the completion of the project. These
can be calculated by reversing the method of calculations used for the earliest
event time. This is done in the following steps:
Step 1: For ending event assume E = L.
Step 2: Latest finish time for activity (i, j) is the target time for completing the
project
(LF)ij = Lj
Step 3: Latest starting time of the activity (i,j) = Latest completion time of (i,,j),
the activity time.
(LS)ij = (LF)ij – tij
= Lj – tij
Step 4: Latest event time for event i is the minimum of the latest start time of all
activities originating from the event.

Li Min L j – tij
j

The computed ‘L’ values are put over the respective triangle  representing
each event.
Determination of Floats and Slack Times
Float is defined as the difference between the latest and the earliest activity time.
Slack is defined as the difference between the latest and the earliest event
time.
Hence, the basic difference between the slack and the float is that slack is
used for events only whereas float is used for activities.
There are mainly three kinds of floats as given below:

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Total Float: It refers to the amount of time by which the completion of an activity Network Analysis: CPM
and PERT
could be delayed beyond the earliest expected completion time without affecting
the overall project duration time.
Mathematically, the Total Float (TF) of an activity (i, j) is the difference NOTES
between the latest start time and the earliest start time of that activity.
Hence, the total float for an activity (i, j) denoted by (TF)ij is calculated by
the formula,
(TF)ij= (Latest start – Earliest start) for activity (i, j)

i.e.,(TF )ij   LS ij –  ES ij


or, TF ij  L j – Ei – tij 

Where Ei, Lj are the earliest time and latest time for the tail event i and head
event j and tij is the normal time for the activity (i, j). This is the most important
type of float as it concerns with the overall project duration.
Free Float: The time by which the completion of an activity can be delayed
beyond the earliest finish time without affecting the earliest start of a subsequent
succeeding activity.
Mathematically, the Free Float for activity (i, j) denoted by (FF)ij can be
calculated by the formula,


FFij  E j – Ei – tij
FFij  Total float – Head event slack

Head event slack = Lj – Ej

This float is concerned with the commencement of subsequent activity.
The free float can take values from zero up to total float, but it cannot
exceed total float. This float is very useful for rescheduling the activities with minimum
disruption of earlier plans.
Independent Float: The amount of time by which the start of an activity can be
delayed without affecting the earliest start time of any immediately following activities
assuming that the preceding activity has finished at its latest finish time.
Mathematically, Independent Float of an activity (i, j) denoted by (IF)ij can
be calculated by the formula,

 
( IF )ij  E j – Li – tij
or
( IF ) ji  Free float –Tail event slack

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Network Analysis: CPM Where tail event slack is given by,
and PERT
Tail event slack = Li – Ei
The negative independent float is always taken as zero. This float is concerned
NOTES with prior and subsequent activities.
(IF)ij  (FF)ij  (TF)ij
Notes:
1. If the total float TFij for any activity (i, j) is zero, then those activities are called
critical activity.
2. The float can be used to reduce project duration. While doing this, the float of not
only that activity but that of other activities would also change.
Critical Activity: An activity is said to be critical if a delay in its start will cause a
further delay in the completion of the entire project.
Critical Path: The sequence of critical activities in a network is called the critical
path. It is the longest path in the network from the starting event to the ending
event and defines the minimum time required to complete the project. In the network,
it is denoted by double line. This path identifies all the critical activities of the
project. Hence, for the activity (i, j) to lie on the critical path, following conditions
must be satisfied.
(i) ESi= LFi
(ii) ESj = LFj
(iii) ESj – ESi = LFj – LFi = tij
ESi, ESj, are the earliest start and finish time of the event i and j.
LFi, LFj are the latest start, finish time of the event i and j.
14.3.3 Network Diagram
Start Finish
A D G
1 2 5 7
3 2 8
B E I
5 H
3 6
C 7
4 F
4 9

In the above diagram, each arrow represents an activity and each circle an event.
Circle 1 represents the starting event and circle 7 represents the ending event. The
names of the activities are generally stated just above the corresponding arrows.
Thus A in the above diagram is the name of the activity represented by the arrow
just drawn below it.
 Merge and Burst Events: It may be pointed out that it is not necessary for
an event to be the ending event of only one activity but an event can be the
ending event of two or more activities in which case the said event is
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 technically described as merge event. Similarly, if the event happens to be Network Analysis: CPM
and PERT
the beginning event of two or more activities it is technically called as the
‘Burst Event’.
 Preceding, Succeeding and Concurrent Activities: The activities can be
NOTES
classified as preceding activities; succeeding activities and the concurrent
activities. Activities which most be accomplished before a given event can
occur are termed as preceding activities; activities which cannot be
accomplished until an event has occurred are termed as succeeding
activities and activities which can be accomplished concurrently are known
as concurrent activities. This classification is relative which means that
one activity can be preceding to a certain event and the same activity can be
succeeding to some other event or it may be a concurrent activity with one
or more of the activities.
 Dummy Activities: Some times we use dummy activities in the preparation
of network diagram. Such activities are to designate a precedence
relationship and in the network diagram are shown as broken lines. They
are characterized by their use of zero time and zero resource. Their main
function is to help in assuring that the activities and events in a network
diagram are in proper sequence.
 Path and Critical Path: A path is continuous chain of activities through a
network which connects the first event to the last event. Critical path consists
of the sequence of those events and connected activities that require the
maximum time in the completion of the project. It is that path which takes
the longest time. It is known as critical because it controls the completion
date of the project. The length of this path determines the minimum time in
which the project may be completed.
 Critical Activities or Bottleneck Activities: All the activities associated
with the critical path are called as critical or bottleneck activities. Any
delay in the completion of one or more of these activities will cause delay in
the completion date of the project. Hence, such activities require special
attention of the project incharge.
 Earlier Start Time or Est: Est for an activity is the earliest possible time an
activity can begin on the assumption that all activities preceding to it started
at the earliest possible times.
 Earliest Finish Time or Eft: Eft is the sum of the earliest start time and the
estimated time to perform the concerning activity.
 Latest Finish Time or Lft: Lft for an activity is the latest possible time an
activity can finish without delaying the project beyond its dead line on the
assumption that all the subsequent activities are performed as planned.
 Latest Start Time (or Lst): Lst for an activity is the difference between the
latest finish time and the estimated time for the activity to be performed.
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Network Analysis: CPM  Float (Total, Interfering Independent and Free floats): Quite often the
and PERT
term float (in CPM terminology) is used in context of network analysis.
Float may be understood as total float, interfering float, free float and
independent float. Total float is the duration by which an activity can be
NOTES delayed without delaying the project and can be worked out as either (Lst-
Est) or (Lft-Eft). Interfering float is that part of the total float which causes
a reduction in the float of the successor activity or activities. In other words,
it is that portion of the activity float which cannot be consumed without
affecting adversely the float of the succeeding activity or activities. It is
worked out as a difference between the Lft of the activity and the Est of
the following activity or zero whichever is larger. Interfering float is also
known as the head event slack of an activity. Free float is that portion of
the total float within which an activity can be manipulated without affecting
the float of subsequent activities. It is worked out by subtracting the head
event slack from the total float. The head event slack is its latest event time
minus earliest event time or (LT – ET). Independent float is that portion of
the total float within which an activity can be delayed for started without
affecting float of the preceding activities. It is worked out by subtracting the
tall event slack from the free float. If it obtains a negative value then it is
taken as equal to zero. Tail event refers to the event where an activity say
begins and Head event is the event where an activity comes to an end. If
we have events (1) and (2) then (1) is the tail event and (2) is the head event
of an activity A.
Float may be positive or negative. Positive float indicates that the activities
concerned have certain amount of spare time and can be delayed without
effecting the project duration. On the other hand, negative float highlights
the situation in which the activities concerned are short of time and unless
their duration (to the extent of negative float) is reduced, completion of the
project by the target time cannot be assured. Thus, negative float indicates
the extent of criticality of the activities.
 Slack: The term slack is normally associated with events. It indicates the
amount of latitude that is available for an event to occur. It is worked out as
under:
Slack of an event = (Latest occurence time of the event) – (Earlier occurence
time of the event) or simply slack of event = (LT – ET). Slack can be positive or
negative depending upon whether the targetted date of completion is later or earlier
than the earliest finish time of the task respectively.
When used for activities, the term slack should be used for activity slack
(activity slack is synonymous to float). Since slack is associated with the events,
each activity will have two slacks which includes the slack of its head event or the
head slack and the slack of its tail event or the tail slack.

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Preparation of the Network Arrow Diagram Network Analysis: CPM
and PERT
We require the following information for each activity in the project for the
preparation of the network diagram:
(a) The sequencing requirements for an activity must be known, i.e., the set of NOTES
activities which must be completed prior to the beginning of each specific
activity should be known.
(b) An estimate of the time each activity will take should also be known.
Keeping all what has been stated above in view, the network diagram can
easily be prepared. But the following rules of constructing network diagrams will
have to be invariably adhered:
(i) Each activity is shown by an arrow only once in the network.
(ii) Network has to be developed on the basis of logical dependencies between
various activities.
(iii) The length of arrows representing various activities have no significance;
they only indicate the logical precedence.
(iv) Arrow direction shows the general progression in time.
(v) Events in the network are shown by numbers.
(vi) Activities are identified by the numbers of their starting and the ending events.
(vii) Parallel activities between two events without intervening events are not
permitted. In such a situation dummy activities may have to be introduced.
(viii) Looping is not permitted in a network. This means that if activity A precedes
B and B precedes C, then C cannot precede A.
Now construct the network diagrams using the above stated rules.
Examples 14.6: Prepare a network arrow diagram for the following information.
Activity Name of the Pre-Requisite Estimated Time
Activity Activity (Weeks)
Event Event
1 2 A None 3
1 3 B None 5
1 4 C None 4
2 5 D None 2
3 5 E A 3
4 6 F B 9
5 7 G C 8
3 6 H D 7
6 7 I E 9

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Network Analysis: CPM Solution: Draw the following network arrow diagram to solve the problem:
and PERT
D
2 5 G Finish
A 2
8 7
Start 3 E
NOTES B 3 I
1 H 9
5 3
6
C F
4 9
4

The above is the required network digram for the given problem. Activity A must
be completed before activity D can begin the arrow activities. The immediate
preceding activity of activity D is activity A which means that activity A must be
completed before activity D can begin. The arrow from circle 1 to circle 2 indicate
that activity a must be completed before activity D can begin. Similarly activity B
must be completed before activities E and/or H can C must be completed before
F can begin; activities H and F must be completed before I can begn and activities
D and E must be completed before activity G can begin. The estimated time for
each activity has been placed just below the arrow representing that activity.
Example 14.7: Draw a network arrow diagram for the following information
concerning some project:
Activity Predecessor Activity or Activities
A None
B A
C A
D B,C
E C
F D
G E
H F,G.
Solution: Draw the following network arrow diagram to solve the problem:
D
B 4
5 F
A H
1 2 7 8
C G
E
3 6
In this diagram, activity 3-4 is the dummy activity shown as a broken line. It
is required because activities B and C both precede activity D but activity C alone
precedes activity E.

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 Network Analysis: CPM
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Check Your Progress
1. What are the management functions for the three phases of work involved
in a project? NOTES
2. Define planning?
3. What is an activity?
4. What is an event?
5. What do you mean by a network?
6. What are merge events and burst events?
7. What is a dummy activity?
8. What is a redundant activity or redundancy?

14.4 CRITICAL PATH METHOD (CPM)

Critical Path Method (CPM) is a graphical technique for planning and scheduling
of projects. This technique involves the preparation of the network in the form
of arrow diagram and its analysis to indicate the critical path. It has the potential
for scheduling of a task in minimum time and/or cost in accordance with specified
constraints.
After preparing the network diagram and indicating the times for each
activity,we can now mention the various possible paths, for determining the critical
path. The critical path being the longest path can easily be found out from the
possible paths as the one taking the maximum time in the completion of the project.
In the network diagram of Example 14.6 there are in all four paths viz.
l. A  D  G requiring 3 + 2 + 8 = 13 weeks in completion of the
project.
2. B  E  G requiring 5 + 3 + 8 = 16 weeks in completion of the
project.
3. B  H  I requiring 5 + 7 + 9 = 21 weeks in completion of the
project.
4. C  F  I requiring 4 + 9 + 9 = 22 weeks in completion of the
project.
As the path C  F  I takes longest time in the completion of the project,
it is the critical path. The activities C, F and I are associated with it and hence they
are critical or bottleneck activities. All other activities viz., A, B, D, E, G and H are
non-critical activities. Non-critical activities have a certain amount of spare time or
float available. These activities can be delayed to the extent of the float available
without affecting the overall completion time of the project

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Network Analysis: CPM The critical path is important as its length determines the minimum time
and PERT
required for the completion of the project. The critical path requires greater attention
because of the following reasons:
(a) The critical path highlights those activities which must be performed more
NOTES
rapidly if the total project completion time is to be reduced;
(b) Any delay in activities which are on the critical path will produce delay in
the completion of the project, i.e., will postpone the final completion date
of the project on the other hand delays in non-critical activities may not
actually delay the completion of the project;
(c) Advance planning and improvement along the critical path may cause another
path to become critical.
In brief, the critical path directs management’s attention to important facts,
spots potential bottlenecks and avoids unnecessary pressure on other paths that
will not result in an earlier final completion date of the project.
14.4.1 Computations for Critical Path
The computations to be accomplished for critical path are as follows: The Earliest
Start Time (or Est) and the Earliest Finish Time (or Eft) for each activity are to be
obtained first. For this purpose, we set the Est of the first activity equal to zero.
Then add the estimated time to perform the first activity to its Est and the result is
the Eft for the first activity. Now, take any activity for which all of its immediate
preceding activities have Est and Eft values. The Est of such an activity is equal
to the largest of the Eft values of its immediate preceding activities. If we
proceed this way (i.e., from left to right), finding the Est and Eft of all activities in
the network, we are said to adopt what is known as the Forward Pass.
Similarly, we will have to work out the Latest Start Time (or Lst) and the
Latest Finish Time (or Lft) for each activity to be performed in the completion of
the project. This can be done as under:
Start at the end of the network diagram and first set the Lft for the last
activity equal to the Eft for that activity. Then subtract the estimated time to perform
the last activity from its Lft to obtain its Lst. Now take any activity for which all of
its immediate succeeding activities have Lst and Lft values. The Lft of such an
activity is equal to the smallest of the Lst values of its immediate succeeding
activities. If we proceed this way (i.e., from right to left) finding the Lst and Lft of
all activities in the network, we are said to adopt what is known as the Backward
Pass.
Activity Floats: Often the complete date of the project is determined from
the length of the critical path, the float will be positive except along the critical path
where it will be zero. The float for each activity can be calculated by taking the
difference either between the Lst and the Est or between Lft and Eft for that
activity. Float will always be zero for those activities which are on the critical
path. This is a the definition of critical path since my delay in a critical activity will
cause delay in the completion date of the project.

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 ‘Slack’ in case of events: In case of events we usually talk of slack and for Network Analysis: CPM
and PERT
activities we can think of their head events slacks and tail events slacks.
Slack for events concerning illustration one can be shown as under:
For Event LT ET Slack (i.e., LT – ET)
NOTES
1 6 0 0
2 12 3 9
3 6 5 1
4 4 4 0
5 14 8 6
6 13 13 0
7 22 22 0
LT = Latest Event Time
ET = Earliest Event Time
Head event slack tail event slack relating to an activity can be shown as under:
For Activity Head event Slack Tail event Slack
A 9 0
B 1 0
C 0 0
D 6 9
E 6 1
F 0 0
G 0 6
H 0 1
I 0 0
Float or slack whether positive or negative, is generally considered as undesirable
and should be avoided to the extent possible. Positive float simply means that
there is idle time and resources with corresponding simplicit costs burden. When
the time to be allowed for the completion of the project is less than the time which
is required as per the critical path analysis for the completion of the project, we
have negative float which simply represents that project requires more resources
than are normally available. In such a situation, the project manager can either
choose not to meet the completion date and bear the burden of penalties, if any,
that may be imposed or to use more resources, i.e., to work on the basis of crash
plan and absorb the corresponding increase in costs in order to complete the
project within the stipulated time. Negative float is a sort of warning that final
event will not be completed on schedule with the existing plan. It thus serves to
indicate the extent of criticality of the activity. Once we have determined the critical
path and have worked out the floats in respect of each activity, then adjustments
can be made for better utilization of resources and time. Some of the possible
adjustments can be as under:
(i) Reduction of time estimates of bottleneck activities.
(ii) Eliminations of some activities, if possible.
(iii) Bringing in some more resources.

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Network Analysis: CPM (iv) Transfering resources from activities having float to critical activities with
and PERT
zero float.
(v) Restructuring of the network with a view to reduce completion time of the
project.
NOTES
With one or more of the above stated adjustments, the CPM analysis can
result in producing an improved plan for the completion of the project in time and
that too in an economical manner. Besides, when new information comes as the
project progresses, the plan can be revaluated and revised to incorporate the new
developments. If used in this manner, the network analysis proves to be a dynamic
device for effecting control over the project.
Resource Allocation and Levelling
Resource Allocation (also known as resource scheduling) implies the task of
allocation of resources to various activities in such a manner that the allocation is
considered as acceptable under the given situation. The task of allocation of
resources is of vital importance as the final schedule depends upon the quantity of
deployment of resources. Then the basic question is: How the resources should
be allocated? This depends upon several factors like availability of resources,
requirements, restrictions in regard to completion date, etc. Various types of
problems may be encountered in this connection, but we shall consider only two
of such problems: (i) Resource levelling and (ii) Limited resource allocation.
The Problem of Resource Levelling
Resource Levelling (also known as local smoothing) means the resource scheduling
exercise in which the resource demand is evened out or levelled as much as possible.
In other words, resource levelling refers to the scheduling of activities within the
limits of the available floats in such a way that variations in resource requirements
are minimized. Though no constraint is put on the availability of resources in context
of resource levelling but the aggregate demand of each of the important resources
requires to be levelled up so as to minimize resource costs.
The Problem of Resource Allocation
Problem arises when the resource/resources are limited. We quite often find that
projects require costly items of plant and equipments for execution of the work of
which only a limited number are available. Such limited resources must be allocated
with a lot of care so that the total requirement should not exceed the ceiling and
the utilization factor remains high. This necessitates rescheduling of some or all of
the activities and may even involve delay in overall completion of the project.
The methodology for resource levelling involves the following steps:
(i) Prepare the list of the resources that would be required for execution of the
various activities.

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 (ii) Prepare the resource profiles for each resource by resource aggregation Network Analysis: CPM
and PERT
exercise.
(iii) Identify the periods of peak and low demands.
(iv) Make an attempt to lower down the demand in peak periods to fill up the NOTES
troughs, i.e., to make the demand as uniform as possible. This can be done
by altering the times of start and finish of non-critical activities in accordance
of their floats without affecting the overall completion date of the project.
14.4.2 Applications of CPM Analysis
The iterative procedure of determining the critical path is as follows.
Step 1: List all the jobs and then draw arrow (network) diagram. Each job is
indicated by an arrow with the direction of the arrow showing the sequence of
jobs. The length of the arrows has no significance. The arrows are placed based
on the predecessor, successor, and concurrent relation within the job.
Step 2: Indicate the normal time (tij) for each activity (i, j) above the arrow which
is deterministic.
Step 3: Calculate the earliest start time and the earliest finish time for each event
and write the earliest time Ei for each event i in the . Also calculate the latest
finish and latest start time. From this we calculate the latest time Lj for each event
j and put in the .
Step 4: Tabulate various times namely normal time, earliest time and latest time on
the arrow diagram.
Step 5: Determine the total float for each activity by taking the difference between
the earliest start and the latest start time.
Step 6: Identify the critical activities and connect them with the beginning event
and the ending event in the network diagram by double line arrows. Which gives
the critical path.
Step 7: Calculate the total project duration.
Note: The earliest start, finish time of an activity, and the latest start, finish time of an activity
are shown in the table. These are calculated by using the following hints.
To find the earliest time we consider the tail event of the activity. Let the
starting time of the project, namely ESi = 0. Add the normal time with the starting
time to get the earliest finish time. The earliest starting time for the tail event of the
next activity is given by the maximum of the earliest finish time for the head event of
the previous activity.
Similarly, to get the latest time, we consider the head event of the activity.
The latest finish time of the head event of the final activity is given by the
target time of the project. The latest start time can be obtained by subtracting the
normal time of that activity. The latest finish time for the head event of the next
activity is given by the minimum of the latest start time for the tail event of the
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Network Analysis: CPM Example 14.8: A project schedule has the following characteristics.
and PERT

Activity 1– 2 1– 3 2–4 3–4 3 – 5 4 – 9 5 – 6 5 –7

Time(days) 4 1 1 1 6 5 4 8
NOTES
Activity 6 – 8 7 – 8 8 – 10 9 – 10
Time(days) 1 2 5 7

From the above information, you are required to:

(i) Construct a network diagram.
(ii) Compute the earliest event time and latest event time.
(iii) Determine the critical path and total project duration.
(iv) Compute total, free float for each activity.
Solution: First we construct the network with the given constraints. Here we get
this by just connecting the event numbers.

The following table gives the critical path, total, and free floats calculation.

Time

The earliest and latest calculations are shown below:

Forward Pass Calculation: In this we estimate the earliest start ESi and finish
time ESj. The earliest time for the event i is given by,

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NOTES

Backward Pass Calculation: In this, we calculate the latest finish and the latest
start time. The latest time L for an event i is given by Li = Minj (LFj – tij)
Where LFj is the latest finish time for the event j, tij is the normal time of the
activity.
L10  22
L9  L10  t9,10  22  7  15
L8  L10  t8,10  22  5  17
L7  L8  t7,8  17  2  15
L6  L8  t6,8  17  1  16
L5  Min ( L6  t5,6 , L7  t5,7 )
 Min (16  4, 15  8)  7
L4  L9  t4,9  15  5  10
L3  Min ( L4  t3,4 , L5  t3,5 )
 Min (10  1, 7  6)  1
L2  L4  t2,4  10  1  9
L1  Min ( L2  t12 , L3  t13 )  Min (9  4, 1  1)  0.
These calculations are shown in the given table.
To find the TF (Total Float): Considering the activity 1–2, TF of (1–2) =
Latest start–Earliest start.
So, TF = 5 – 0 = 5
Similarly, TF(2–4) = LS – ES
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Network Analysis: CPM So, TF = 9 – 4 = 5
and PERT
Free float = TF – Head event slack.
Consider the activity 1 – 2
NOTES FF of 1 – 2 = TF of 1 – 2 – Slack for the head event 2
So, FF = 5 – (9 – 4) (from the figure for event 2)
 FF = 5 – 5 = 0
FF of 2 – 4 = TF of 2 – 4 – Slack for the head event 4
So, FF = 5 – (10 – 5) = 5 – 5 = 0
Like this we calculate the TF and FF for the remaining activities.
From the above table we observe that the activities 1–3, 3–5, 5–7, 7–8, 8–10 are
the critical activities as their total float is 0.
Hence, we have the following critical path.
1  3  5  7  8  10, with the total project duration of 22 days.
Example 14.9: A small maintenance project consists of the following jobs whose
precedence relationships is given below:

Job 1– 2 1– 3 2– 3 2–5 3–4 3–6 4–5 4 – 6 5 – 6 6 –7

Duration(days) 15 15 3 5 8 12 1 14 3 14

(i) Draw an arrow diagram representing the project.

(ii) Find the total float for each activity.
(iii) Find the critical path and the total project duration.

Solution:

Forward Pass Calculation: In this we estimate the earliest start and the earliest
finish time ESj given by,
ES j Max (ESi tij ) where ESi is the earliest start time and tij is the normal
i

time for the activity (i, j).

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 Network Analysis: CPM
ES1  0 and PERT
ES 2  ES1  t15  0  15  15
ES3  Max ( ES2  t23 , ES1  t13 )
 Max (15  3, 0  15)  18 NOTES
ES 4  ES3  t34  18  8  26
ES5  Max ( ES2  t25 , ES 4  t45 )
 Max (15  5, 26  1)  27
ES6  Max ( ES3  t36 , ES 4  t 46 , ES5  t56 )
 Max (18  12, 26  14, 27  3)
 40
ES7  ES6  t67  40  14  54
Backward Pass Calculation: In this we calculate the latest finish and latest start
time LFi, given by LFi= Mini(LFj–tij) where LFj is the latest finish time for the
event j.
LF7  54
LF6  LF7  t67  54  14  40
LF5  LS6  t56  40  3  37
LF4  Min ( LS5  t45 , LS6  t46 )
 Min (37  1, 40  14)  26
LF3  Min ( LF4  t34 , LF6  t36 )
 Min (26  8, 40  12)  18
LF2  Min ( LF5  t25 , LF3  t23 )
 Min (37  5, 18  3)  15
LF1  Min ( LF3  t13 , LF2  t12 )
 Min (18  15, 15  15)  0
The following table gives the calculation for critical path and total float.

Time Float

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Network Analysis: CPM From the above table we observe that the activities 1 – 2, 2 – 3, 3 – 4, 4 – 6, 6 –
and PERT
7 are the critical activities and the critical path is given by, 1  2  3  4  6
 7.
The total project completion is given by 54 days.
NOTES
Example 14.10: Tasks A, B, ... H, I constitute a project. The notation X<Y means
that the task X must be completed before Y is started. With the notation,
A<D; A<E; B<F; D<F; C<G; C<H; F<I; G<I
Draw a graph to represent the sequence of tasks and find the minimum time of
completion of the project, when the time (in days) of completion of each task is as
follows:
The above constraints can be given in the following table.
Task A B C D E F G H I
Time (days) 8 10 8 10 16 17 18 14 9

Solution: The above constraints can be given in the following table.

Activity A B C D E F G H I
Preceding Activity – – – A A B,D C B F,G

Time Calculation: Using forward and backward pass calculation, we first

estimate the earliest and the latest time for each event.
ES1  E1  0
E2  E1  t12  0  8  8
E3  Max ( E1  E13 , E2  t23 )
 Max (0  10, 8  10)  18
E4  E1  t14  0  8  8
E5  Max ( E3  t35 , E4  t45 )
 Max (18  17, 8  18)  35
E6  Max ( E2  t26 , E4  t46 , E5  t56 )
 Max (8  16, 8  14, 35  9)  44

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The value of the latest time can now be obtained. Network Analysis: CPM
and PERT
L6  E6  44 (Target completion time for the project)
L5  L6  t56  44  9  35
L4  Min ( L6  t46 , L5  t45 ) NOTES
 Min (44  14, 35  18)  17
L3  L5  t35  35  17  18
L2  Min ( L6  t26 , L3  t23 )
 Min (44  16, 18  10)  8
L1  Min ( L4  t14 , L3  t13 , L2  t12 )
 Min (17  8, 18  10, 8  8)  0
To evaluate the critical events, all these calculations are put in the following table.
Normal
Time/Days

The above table shows that the critical events are the tasks 1 – 2, 2 – 3, 3
– 5, 5 – 6 as their total float is zero.

The critical path is given by 1  2  3  5  6 or A  D  F  I with

the total project duration as 44 days.

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Network Analysis: CPM
and PERT 14.5 PROGRAMME EVALUATION AND REVIEW
TECHNIQUE (PERT)

NOTES The network methods discussed so far may be termed as deterministic, since
estimated activity times are assumed to be known with certainty. However, in
research project or design of gear box of a new machine, various activities are
based on judgement. It is difficult to obtain a reliable time estimate due to the
changing technology. Time values are subject to chance variations. For such cases
where the activities are non-deterministic in nature, PERT was developed. Hence,
PERT is a probabilistic method where the activity times are represented by a
probability distribution. This probability distribution of activity times is based upon
three different time estimates made for each activity. These are as follows:
(i) Optimistic time estimate
(ii) Most likely time estimate
(iii) Pessimistic time estimate
Optimistic Time Estimate: It is the smallest time taken to complete the activity
if everything goes on well. There is very little chance that activity can be done in
time less than the optimistic time. It is denoted by t0 or a.
Most Likely Time Estimate: It refers to the estimate of the normal time the
activity would take. This assumes normal delays. It is the mode of the probability
distribution. It is denoted by tm or (m).
Pessimistic Time Estimate: It is the longest time that an activity would take if
everything goes wrong. It is denoted by tp or b. These three time values are shown
in the following figure.
Frequency

0 t0 tm tp

Time Distribution Curve

From these three time estimates, we have to calculate the expected time of
an activity. It is given by the weighted average of the three time estimates,

t0  4tm  t p
te 
6

 distribution with weights of 1, 4, 1, for to, tm and tp estimates respectively.

Variance of the activity is given by,
2
 t p – t0 
 = 
2

 6 
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 The expected length (duration), denoted by Tc of the entire project is the Network Analysis: CPM
and PERT
length of the critical path, i.e., the sum of the tc’s of all the activities along the
critical path.
The main objective in the analysis through PERT is to find the completion
NOTES
for a particular event within specified date TS, given by P (Z  D) where,
Due date – Expected date of completion
D=
Project variance

Where Z stands for standard normal variable.

14.5.1 PERT Procedure
Step 1: Draw the project network.
Step 2: Compute the expected duration of each activity using the formula.
t0  4tm  t p
te 
6
Also calculate the expected variance 2 of each activity.
2
 t p  to 
i.e., 2 =  
 6 
Step 3: Compute the earliest start, earliest finish, latest start, latest finish and total
float of each activity.
Step 4: Find the critical path and identify the critical activities.
Step 5: Compute the project length variance 2 which is the sum of the variance of
all the critical activities and hence find the standard deviation of the project
length .
Ts – Te
Step 6: Calculate the standard normal variable Z = where TS is the

scheduled time to complete the project.
Te = Normal expected project length duration.
 = Expected standard deviation of the project length.
Using the normal curve, we can estimate the probability of completing the
project within a specified time.
Example 14.11: The following table shows the jobs of a network alongwith their
time estimates.
Job 1- 2 1-6 2 - 3 2 - 4 3 - 5 4 - 5 6 -7 5-8 7 -8
a (days ) 1 2 2 2 7 5 5 3 8
m (days) 7 5 14 5 10 5 8 3 17
b (days) 13 14 26 8 19 17 29 9 32
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Network Analysis: CPM Here, a is optimistic time, m is most likely time and b is pessimistic time
and PERT
estimate.
Draw the project network and find the probability that the project is
completed in 40 days.
NOTES
Solution: First we calculate the expected time and standard deviation for each
activity.
2
t o + 4t m + t p  t p – to 
Activity te = σ2 =  
6  6 
2
1  4  7  13  13  1 
1–2 7   4
6  6 
2
2  4  5  14  14  2 
1–6 6   4
6  6 
2
2  4  14  26  26  2 
2–3  14    16
6  6 
2
2  5 4  8 82
2–4 5   1
6  6 
2
7  4  10  19  19  7 
3–5  11   4
6  6 
2
5  5  4  17  17  5 
4–5 7   4
6  6 
2
5  8  4  29  29  5 
6–7  11    16
6  6 
2
3  3 4  9 93
5–8 4   1
6  6 
2
8  4  17  32  32  8 
7–8  18    16
6  6 

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Expected project duration = 36 days. Network Analysis: CPM
and PERT
Critical path 1  2  3  5  8
Project length variance = 2 = 4 +16 + 4 + 1
= 25 NOTES
 =5
Probability that the project will be completed in 40 days is given by,
P(Z  D)
Ts – Te 40  36 4
D=    0.8
 5 5
Area under the normal curve for  = 0.8,
P(Z  0.8)
= 0.5 +  (0.8) [(8) = 0.2881 (refer Z – table)]
= 0.5 + 0.2881 = 0.7881 = 78.81%

Conclusion: If the project is performed 100 times under the same conditions,
there will be 78.81 occasions for this job to be completed in 40 days.
Example 14.12: A small project is composed of seven activities whose time
estimates are listed in the table as follow.
Duration (Weeks)
Likely

You are required to:

(i) Draw the project network.
(ii) Find the expected duration and variance of each activity.
(iii) Calculate the early and late occurrence for each event and the expected
project length.
(iv) Calculate the variance and standard deviations of project length. Self-Instructional
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Network Analysis: CPM (v) What is the probability that the project will be completed:
and PERT
(a) 4 weeks earlier than expected.
(b) Not more than 4 weeks later than expected.
NOTES (c) If the project due date is 19 weeks, what is the probability of meeting
the due date.
Solution: The expected time and variance of each activity is computed as shown
in the table below:
Activity a m b t o + 4t m + t p 2
te = σ2 = t p to
6 6

The earliest and the latest occurrence time for each is calculated as below:
E 1 = 0; E2= 0 + 2 = 2
E3 = 0 + 4 = 4
E4 = 0 + 3 = 3
E 5 = Max (2 + 1, 4 + 6) = 10
E 6 = Max (10 + 7, 3 + 5) = 17
To determine the latest expected time we start from E6 being the last event
and move backwards subtracting te from each activity. Hence, we have
L 6 = E6 = 17
L 5 = L6 – 7 = 17 – 7 = 10
L 4 = 17 – 5 = 12
L 3 = 10 – 6 = 4
L 2 = 10 – 1 = 9
L 1 = Min (9 – 2, 4 – 4, 12 – 3) = 0
Using the above information, we get the following network, where the critical
path is shown by the double line arrow.

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 We observe the critical path of the above network as 1  3  5  6. Network Analysis: CPM
and PERT
The expected project duration is 17 weeks, i.e., Te = 17 weeks.
The variance of the project length is given by,
2 = 1 + 4 + 4 = 9 NOTES
Hence,  =3
(i) The probability of completing the project within 4 weeks earlier than expected
is given by,
T –T
P( Z  D) where D  S e


Due date  Expected date of completion

D
Project variance
17  4  17 13  17 4
D  
3 3 3
 1.33
P( Z 1.33) 0.5 (1.33)
0.5 0.4082 (from the table)
= 0.0918 = 9.18%

Conclusion: If the project is performed 100 times under the same conditions,
then there will be 9 occasions for this job to be completed in 4 weeks earlier than
expected.
(ii) The probability of completing the project not more than 4 weeks later than
expected is given by,
P (Z  D)

Where, D  Ts  Te

Here, Ts = 17 + 4 = 21
21  17 4
D   1.33
3 3
P (Z  1.33)
= 0.5 + (1.33)
= 0.5 + 0.4082 (from the table)
= 0.9082 = 90.82% Self-Instructional
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Network Analysis: CPM
and PERT

NOTES

Conclusion: If the project is performed 100 times under the same conditions,
then there will be 90.82 occasions when this job will be completed not more than
4 weeks later than expected.
(iii) The probability of completing the project within 19 weeks, is given by,
19 17 2 19 17 2
P(Z  D) where, D= P(Z D) Since  19
T D=
where, Since TS 19
3 3 3 3
= 0.666
P (Z  0.666) = 0.5 +  (0.666)
= 0.5 + 0.2514 (from the table)
= 0.7514 = 75.14%

Conclusion: If the project is performed 100 times under the same conditions,
then there will be 75.14 occasions for this job to be completed in 19 weeks.
Example 14.13: Consider the following project.
Activity Time Estimate in Weeks Predecessor
to tm tp

A 3 6 9 None
B 2 5 8 None
C 2 4 6 A
D 2 3 10 B
E 1 3 11 B
F 4 6 8 C,D
G 1 5 15 E

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 Find the path and standard deviation. Also find the probability of completing Network Analysis: CPM
and PERT
the project by 18 weeks.
Solution: First we calculate the expected time and variance of each activity as in
the following table:
NOTES
2
t o + 4t m + t p 2  t p – to 
Activity to tm tp te = σ = 
6  6 
3 46  9
A 3 6 9 6 [(9 – 3)/6]2 = 1
6
30
B 2 5 8 5 [(8 – 2)/6]2 = 1
6
C 2 4 6 24/6 = 4 [(6 – 2)/6]2 = 0.444
D 2 3 10 4 1.777
E 1 3 11 4 2.777
F 4 6 8 6 0.444
G 1 5 15 6 5.444

We construct the network with the help of predecessor relation given in the
data.

Critical path is 1  2  4  6 or A  C  F
The project length = 16 weeks.
Project length variance 2 = 1 + 0.444 + 0.444 = 1.888
Standard deviation =  = 1.374
The probability of completing the project in 18 weeks is given by:
P(Z  D)
Ts – Te
Where, D=

Ts = 18; Te = 16;  = 1.374

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Network Analysis: CPM
and PERT 18 – 16
D= = 1.4556
1.374
P(Z  D) = P(Z  1.4556) = 0.5 + (1.4456)
NOTES = 0.5 + 0.4265 (from table)
= 0.9265 = 92.65%

Conclusion: If the project is performed 100 times under the same conditions,
then there will be 92.65 occasions when this job will be completed by 18 weeks.
Example 14.14: Assuming that the expected times are normally distributed, find
the probability of meeting the schedule date as given for the network.
Activity Days
(i–j) Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
to tm tp

1–2 2 5 14
1–3 9 12 15
2–4 5 14 17
3–4 4 4 10
4–5 8 17 20
3–5 6 6 12

Scheduled project completion date is 30 days. Also, find the date on which
the project manager can complete the project with a probability of 0.90.
Solution: The expected time te and variance for each activity is calculated in the
following table:
Activity te = (to + 4tm + tp)/6  2 = ((tp – to)/)2
1–2 6 4
1–3 12 1
2–4 13 4
3–4 5 1
3–5 16 4
4–5 7 1

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 To determine the critical path, the earliest expected time and the latest Network Analysis: CPM
and PERT
allowable time. First we draw the project network as follows:

NOTES

The critical path is given by 1  3  5 and the project duration is given by 28

days. Project length variance = 2 = 1 + 4 = 5. Standard deviation = 2 =
2.236.
The probability of completing the project within 30 days is given by,
Ts  Te 30  28
P (Z  D), where D =   0.8944
 2.236
P (Z  0.8944) = 0.5 +  (0.8944)
= 0.8133
= 81.33%
Conclusion: If the project is performed 100 times under the same conditions,
then there will be 81.33 occasions when the project will be completed in 30 days.
If the probability for the completion of the project is 0.90 then the
corresponding value of Z = 1.29.
Ts  Te
Z  1.29

Ts  28
i.e.,  1.29
2.236
 Ts = (1.29) (2.236) + 28
 Ts = 30.88 weeks

14.6 COMPARISON AND LIMITATIONS OF PERT

AND CPM
1. CPM is activity oriented, i.e., CPM network is built on the basis of activities.
Also results of various calculations are considered in terms of activities of
the project. On the other hand, PERT is event oriented.

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Network Analysis: CPM 2. CPM is a deterministic model, i.e., it dose not take into account the uncertainties
and PERT
involved in the estimation of time for execution of a job or an activity. It
completely ignores the probabilistic element of the problem. PERT however
is a probabilistic model. It uses three estimates of the activity time- optimistic,
NOTES pessimistic and most likely with a view to take into account time uncertainty.
Thus the expected duration of each activity is probabilistic indicates that there
is fifty percent probability of getting the job done within the time.
3. CPM places dual emphasis on time and cost and evaluates the trade off
between project cost and project time. It allows the project manager to
manipulate project duration within certain limits so that project duration can
be shortened to an optimal cost. On the other hand PERT is primarily
concerned with time. It helps the manager to schedule and coordinate various
activities so that the project can be completed on scheduled time.
4. Since the Critical Path Method does not account for uncertainty, it is best
used in projects where the activity time estimate can be predicted fairly
accurately. For example, for repetitive projects you can estimate the time
for each activity quite accurately from past experience. Whereas for projects
that have a higher degree of uncertainty, use the PERT Network. Most
software projects will require you to account for a high degree of uncertainty.
5. Another difference in PERT and CPM is in how the diagrams are drawn. In
PERT, events are placed in circles or rectangles to emphasize a point in
time. Tasks are indicated by the lines connecting the network of events. In
CPM the emphasis is on the tasks, which are placed in circles. The circles
are then connected with lines to indicate the relationship between the tasks.
CPM use has become more widespread than the use of PERT applications.
PERT and CPM are used together because they have similarities. For example,
PERT and CPM both assume that a small set of activities, which make up the
longest path through the activity network control the entire project. In addition to
that, PERT and CPM also share the following six key assumptions:
1. All tasks have distinct beginning and end points.
2. All estimates can be mathematically derived.
3. Tasks must be able to be arranged in a defined sequence that produces a
pre defined result.
4. Resources may be shifted to meet the need.
5. Cost and time share a direct relationship, i.e., cost of each activity is evenly
spread over time.
6. Time, of itself, has no value.
When used together, PERT and CPM can provide:
 A range of time estimates (by PERT).
 Likely time estimates (by PERT and CPM).
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  Cost estimates (by CPM). Network Analysis: CPM
and PERT
 Time and costs if crashed (by CPM).
 Probabilities of completion on time for a range of times (by PERT).
 A clear path of tasks that are critical to the project (by PERT and CPM). NOTES
 A central focus for solid communications on project issues (by PERT and
CPM).
Limitations of PERT/CPM
 Clearly defined, independent and stable activities.
 Specified precedence relationships.
 Over emphasis on critical paths.
 Deterministic CPM model.
 Activity time estimates are subjective and depend on judgment. If the
estimates are subjective, then it compromises the purpose of the formula.
The weighted estimate and standard deviation will not accurately depict the
amount of time required for each task. In case where there is little experience
in performing the activity, these estimates may be only a guess. Moreover if
the person or group performing the activity estimates the time, there may be
a bias in the estimate.
 PERT assumes a beta distribution for these time estimates, but the actual
distribution may be different.
 Even if the beta distribution assumption holds, PERT assumes that the
probability distribution of the project completion time is the same as that of
the critical path. PERT consistently underestimates the expected project
completion time due to alternate paths becoming critical. Under estimation
of time can cause huge problems in project management. Not only can it
cause the project to fall behind, but it can also cause overages in budget
when employees are either forced to pull overtime to meet project deadlines
or the project might over extend what was budgeted resource wise, thus
causing a problem with over allocation.

Check Your Progress

9. What is a critical activity and critical path?
10. What is PERT? Where is it used?
11. What are optimistic time, most likely time and pessimistic time for activities
in a project?
12. State about the expected time for an activity in a project.
13. Define variance of an activity.
14. What is the standard normal variable of a project?
15. Why are PERT and CPM used together?
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Network Analysis: CPM
and PERT 14.7 ANSWERS TO CHECK YOUR PROGRESS
QUESTIONS

NOTES 1. Management functions involved in three phases of work involved in a project

are, planning, scheduling and controlling.
2. Planning is setting of objectives of the project by listing of tasks to be
performed and resources available to complete the project.
3. An activity represents an action. It is an effort that consumes time that is
needed to complete a part of the overall project.
4. An event is either start or end of an activity.
5. Network is a graphic representation of logically connected activities and
events where activities are presented as arrows and events as nodes.
6. Events that are ending of more than one activity are known as merge events
and those which are beginning of more than one activity are known as burst
events.
7. An activity that consumes neither any resource nor time, but it is there on
the network to show a link between events, are known as dummy activity.
8. A dummy activity that is the only activity emanating from an event is a
redundant activity which can be eliminated, and this phenomenon is known
as redundancy.
9. An activity is critical if delay in its start will cause further delay in completion
of the entire project and critical path is the sequence of all such activities in
the network.
10. PERT stands for Program Evaluation and Review Technique. It is a
probabilistic method where activity times are represented by a probability
distribution. PERT is used where activities involved in a project are non-
deterministic in nature.
11. Smallest time taken to complete an activity assuming that everything goes
well is optimistic time. Most likely time is the normal time taken by an activity
assuming normal delay. Pessimistic time is the longest time required for an
activity to complete assuming everything going wrong.
12. Expected time for an activity in a project is denoted in a PERT chart and is
given by the formula as given below:
Expected time = (Optimistic time + 4  Most likely time + Pessimistic
time)/6.
13. Variance of an activity is given by 2 = [(Pessimistic time – Optimistic time)/6]2.
14. Standard normal variable is given by the formula; (Scheduled time for project
completion – Normal expected time for the project)/Expected standard
deviation for the project. Expected standard deviation for the project is
calculated by the square root of sum of variance of all the critical activities.
15. PERT and CPM are used together because they have similarities.
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 Network Analysis: CPM
14.8 SUMMARY and PERT

 Network analysis is a method of planning and controlling projects by

recording their interdependence in a diagrammatic form that enables each NOTES
fundamental problem involved to be tackled separately.
 Network analysis clearly shows the interdependences between jobs to be
performed in contest of a project and thus enables people to see not only
the overall plan but the ways in which their own activities depend upon or
influence those of others.
 By splitting up the project into smaller activities, network analysis assists in
the estimation of their durations leading to more accurate target dates.
Network analysis allows schedules to be based on considerations of costs
so as to complete projects in a given time at minimum expense.
 Network analysis separates the planning of the sequence of jobs from the
scheduling of times for the jobs and thus it makes planning and scheduling
effective.
 Network analysis is specially suited for projects which are not routine or
repetitive and which will be conducted only once or a few times. Two most
popular forms of this technique now used in many scheduling situations are
the Critical Path Method (or simply CPM) and the Programme Evaluation
and Review Technique (popularly known as PERT).
 Critical Path Method or CPM was developed to aid in the scheduling of
routine plant overhaul, maintenance and construction work. This method
differentiates between planning and scheduling.
 Planning refers to the determination of activities that must be accomplished
and the order in which such activities should be performed to achieve the
objective of the project whereas scheduling refers to the introduction of
time into the plan thereby creating a time table for the various activities to be
performed.
 Programme Evaluation and Review Technique or PERT was developed for
use in defence projects specifically but now this technique assists a business
manager in planning and controlling a project.
 In PERT, the time assumed to perform each activity is uncertain and as such
three time estimates (the optimistic, the pessimistic and the most likely) are
used. It is often described as an approach of multiple time estimates to
scheduling problems of long-range research and development projects.
 A project is defined as a combination of interrelated activities, all of which
must be executed in a certain order for its completion.
 Network is the graphic representation of logically and sequentially connected
arrows and nodes representing activities and events of a project. Networks
are also called arrow diagram. Self-Instructional
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Network Analysis: CPM  An activity represents some action and is a time consuming effort necessary
and PERT
to complete a particular part of the overall project. Thus, each and every
activity has a point of time where it begins and a point where it ends.
 The beginning and end points of an activity are called events or nodes.
NOTES
Event is a point in the time and does not consume any resource. It is
represented by a numbered circle.
 Activities, which must be accomplished before a given event can occur are
termed as preceding activities. Activities, which cannot be accomplished
until an event has occurred are termed as succeeding activities. Activities,
which can be accomplished concurrently are known as concurrent activities.
 Certain activities which neither consume time nor resources but are used
simply to represent a connection or a link between the events are known as
dummies. It is shown in the network by a dotted line.
 In a network diagram looping error is also known as cycling error. Drawing
an endless loop in a network is known as error of looping.
 To disconnect an activity before the completion of all the activities in a
network diagram is known as dangling.
 As per Fulkerson’s rule, after the network is drawn in a logical sequence
every event is assigned a number. The number sequence must reflect the
flow of the network.
 Once the network of a project is constructed, the time analysis of the network
becomes essential for planning various activities of the project. An activity
time is a forecast of the time an activity is expected to take from its starting
point to its completion (under normal conditions).
 An activity is said to be critical if a delay in its start will cause a further delay
in the completion of the entire project.
 The sequence of critical activities in a network is called the critical path. It is
the longest path in the network from the starting event to the ending event
and defines the minimum time required to complete the project. In the
network, it is denoted by double line.
 The critical path highlights those activities which must be performed more
rapidly if the total project completion time is to be reduced.
 The term slack is normally associated with events. It indicates the amount
of latitude that is available for an event to occur.

14.9 KEY WORDS

 Network: A graphic representation of logically connected activities and

events where activities are presented as arrows and events as nodes.

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  Activity: An activity represents an action. It is an effort that consumes time Network Analysis: CPM
and PERT
that is needed to complete a part of the overall project.
 Preceding activity: An activity that must be accomplished for an event to
occur.
NOTES
 Succeeding activity: An activity that cannot occur until an event has
occurred.
 Concurrent activities: Activities which can be accomplished concurrently.
 Critical activity: An activity is critical if delay in its start will cause further
delay in completion of the entire project.
 Event: An event is either start or end of an activity.
 Critical path: It is the path connecting all critical events of the project from
start to the completion of the project.
 PERT: It stands for Program Evaluation Review Technique. It is a
probabilistic method where activity times are represented by a probability
distribution.
 CPM: It stands for Critical Path Method and is based on determination of
the critical path.
 Dummy activity: An activity that consumes neither any resource nor time,
but it is there on the network to show a link between events.
 Redundancy: A dummy activity that is the only activity emanating from an
event is a redundant activity which can be eliminated.
 Optimistic time: The minimum time taken to complete an activity assuming
that everything goes well.
 Most likely time: The normal time taken by an activity assuming normal
delay.
 Pessimistic time: The longest time required for an activity to complete
assuming everything going wrong.
 Expected time: The time for an activity in a project, denoted in a PERT
chart and is given by the formula, as given below:
Expected time = (Optimistic time + 4  Most likely time + Pessimistic time)
6.

14.10 SELF ASSESSMENT QUESTIONS AND

EXERCISES

Short-Answer Questions
1. What is understood by a project?
2. What is dangling in a network? How can it be avoided?
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Network Analysis: CPM 3. Write basic two differences between PERT and CPM.
and PERT
4. How are time estimates used in PERT and CPM?
5. How many types of float are there?
NOTES 6. Differentiate between float and slack times.
7. Define critical activity and critical path?
8. The total float of an activity i – j is 18. The latest and earliest occurrence of
events i and j are 15, 12 and 22, 10, respectively. Find the free float.
9. What is independent float when the total float of an activity i – j is 18?
Latest and earliest occurrence of events i and j are 15, 12 and 22, 10,
respectively.
10. What are the limitations of PERT and CPM?
Long-Answer Questions
1. The following table gives the activities and duration of a construction
project.

Activity 1-2 1-3 2-3 2-4 3-4 4-5

Duration(days) 20 25 10 12 6 10

(i) Draw the network for the project.

(ii) Find the critical path.
2. A small project consits of 11 activities A, B, C, ..., K. The precedence
relationship A, B can start simultaneously. Given A<C, D, I; B<G, F; D<G,
F; F<H, K; G, H<J; I, J, K<E. The duration of the activities are as follows.

Activity A B C D E F G H I J K
Duration(Days) 5 3 10 2 8 4 5 6 12 8 9

Draw the network of the project. Summarise the CPM calculations in a

tabular form computing total, and free floats of activities and hence determine
the critical path.
3. Draw the network and determine the critical path for the given data. Also
calculate all the floats involved in CPM.

Jobs 1-2 1-3 2 -4 3-4 3-5 4 -5 4 -6 5 -6

Duration 6 5 10 3 4 6 2 9

4. A small maintenance project consists of the following 12 jobs.

Jobs 1-2 2-3 2-4 3-4 3 - 5 4 - 6 5 - 8 6 -7 6 - 10 7 - 9 8 - 9 9 - 10
Duration (Days) 2 7 3 3 5 3 5 8 4 4 1 7

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 Draw the arrow network of the project. Summarize CPM calculations in a Network Analysis: CPM
and PERT
tabular form calculating the three types of floats and hence determine the
critical path.
5. Consider the following data for activities in a given project.
NOTES
Activity A B C D E F
Predecessor – A – B,C C D,E
Time (Days) 5 4 7 3 4 2

Draw the arrow diagram for the project. Compute the earliest and the latest
event times. What is the minimum project completion time? List the activities
on the critical path.
6. For the following project, determine the critical path and its duration?

Activity A B C D E F G H
Predecessors – A A B B D,E D C,F,G
Time (Days) 2 4 8 3 2 3 4 8

7. A project has the following time schedule.

Activity 1- 2 1-3 1-4 2 -5 3-6 3 -7 4 -6 5 -8 6 -9 7 -8 8 -9

Duration
2 2 1 4 8 5 3 1 5 4 3
(Month)

Construct the network and compute:

(i) Total float for each activity.
(ii) Critical path and its duration.
8. The data for a small PERT project is as given below, where a represents
optimistic time, m the most likely time and b the pessimistic time. Estimates
(in days) of the activities A, B, ..., J, K.

Activity A B C D E F G H I J K
a 3 2 6 2 5 3 3 1 4 1 2
m 6 5 12 5 11 6 9 4 19 2 4
b 5 14 30 8 17 15 27 7 28 9 12
A, B, C can start simultaneously; A  D, I; B < G, F; D < G, F; C < E; E <
H, K; F < H, K; G, H < J.
(i) Draw the arrow network of the project.
(ii) Calculate the earliest and the latest expected times to each event and
find critical path.
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Network Analysis: CPM (iii) What is the probability that the project will be completed 2 days later
and PERT
than expected?
9. The three estimates for the activities of a project are given below:
NOTES Estimate Duration (Days)
Activity a m b
1–2 5 6 7
1–3 1 1 7
1–4 2 4 12
2–5 3 6 15
3–5 1 1 1
4–6 2 2 8
5–6 1 4 7

Draw the project network. Find out the critical path of the project and
project duration. What is the probability that the project will be completed
at least 5 days earlier than expected?
What is the probability that the project will be completed by 22 days?
10. Consider the network shown in the figure below. The estimate to, tm and tp
are shown in this order for each of the activities on the top of the arcs
denoting the respective activities.
Find the probability of completing the project in 25days.

11. A project is represented by the network shown below and has the following
table:
Task A B C D E F G H I
Least time 5 18 26 16 15 6 7 7 3
Greatest time 10 22 40 20 25 12 12 9 5
Most likely time 8 20 33 18 20 9 10 8 4
Determine the following:
(i) Expected tasks time and their variance.
(ii) The earliest and the latest expected time to reach each mode.

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 (iii) The critical path. Network Analysis: CPM
and PERT
(iv) The probability of completing the project within 41.5 weeks.
12. Consider a project having the following activities and their time estimates.
Draw an arrow diagram for the project. Identify the critical path and compute NOTES
the expected project completion time. What is the probability that the project
will require atleast 75 days?
Activity Predecessor Days
t0 tm tp
A – 2 4 6
B A 8 12 16
C A 14 16 30
D B 4 10 16
E C,B 6 12 18
F E 6 8 22
G D 18 18 30
H F,G 8 14 32

13. Compare PERT and CPM with the help of examples.

14.11 FURTHER READINGS

Arumugam, R. S. 2006. Operations Research. Palayamkottai (Tamil Nadu): New

Gamma Publications.
Sundharesan, V., K. S. Ganapathy and K. Ganesan. 2017. Resource Management
Techniques (Operations Research). Chennai: A. R. Publications.
Swaroop, Kanti, P. K. Gupta and Man Mohan. 2007. Operations Research,
13th Edition. New Delhi: Sultan Chand & Sons.
Taha, Hamdy A. 1992. Operations Research: An Introduction. New York:
Macmillan.
Sharma, S. D. 2006. Operations Research. Uttar Pradesh: Kedar Nath Ram
Nath & Co.
Gupta, P. K. and D. S. Hira. 2002. Introduction to Operations Research. New
Delhi: S. Chand And Company Limited.
Gillett, Billy E. 2007. Introduction to Operations Research. New Delhi: Tata
McGraw-Hill.
Ackoff, R. L. and M. W. Sasieni. 1968. Fundamentals of Operations Research.
New York: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
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Network Analysis: CPM Kothari, C. R. 1992. An Introduction to Operational Research. New Delhi:
and PERT
Vikas Publishing House Pvt. Ltd.
Kalavathy, S. 2002. Operations Research. New Delhi: Vikas Publishing House
Pvt. Ltd.
NOTES
Jensen, Paul A., and Jonathan F. Bard. 2003. Operations Research Models and
Methods. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Sharma, J. K. 2001. Operations Research: Theory and Applications. New
Delhi: Macmillan India Ltd.

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