Empirical Research on How Product Features of Blind

Box Affect Consumers' Purchase Intention—Based on

Structural Equation Modeling
Kexi Pang1a (corresponding author), Weihao He2b, Haoyue Liu1c, Xinyu Tang1d,
Yuxuan Liao1e
1
Business and Tourism School，Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, China
2
College of Architecture and Urban-Rural Planning, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, China
a
[email protected] (corresponding author), [email protected], [email protected], [email protected],
e
[email protected]

Abstract
A blind box refers to a box with randomicity which consumers cannot know what is in beforehand. The industry has
been developed into the period that “everything can be a blind box” and a wide variety of blind boxes emerge in an
endless stream. Concentrating on the emergent and prevalent toys—POP MART blind boxes, which are the combination
of probabilistic goods, artistic collectibles and alternative investments, this paper discusses how product features impact
on the willingness to consume. The writer divides the attributes into three dimensions—the collection, investment and
uncertainty. Considering features as independent variables, positive emotions as intermediary variable and purchase
intention as dependent variable, the author explores the influence of blind box’s product characteristics on positive
emotions and purchase intention. Calculated with structural equation modeling, what the empirical analysis of 282
usable questionnaires suggests is as follows: Firstly, the direct effect of product features on both positive emotions and
purchase intention is significant. Secondly, not only does positive sentiment have a significant and positive impact on
purchase intention, but it also plays an intermediary role between product characteristics and purchase intention.
Furthermore, collection has the greatest impact on purchase intention, followed by investment and uncertainty. The
uncertainty is dominant in the influencing factors of positive emotions, while the collection is in the middle and the
investment is minimal. The conclusions of this paper are instructive to make marketing strategy for companies.

Keywords: Blind box, Probabilistic goods, Collection, Investment, Uncertainty, Positive emotions, Purchase
intention

1.INTRODUCTION reached 29.48 billion yuan, and the annual growth rate of
the online blind box market exceeded 400%. With the
A blind box refers to a box with randomicity which booming increasing of the market, blind box industry has
consumers cannot know what is in beforehand. Dating been developed into the phase of “blind box plus” which
back to the period of Meiji in Japan, department stores means everything can be a blind box. For example, the
launched a new product called lucky bag to clear stocks domestic cultural tourism, such as the Forbidden City,
by selling goods at low prices, and that’s the prototype of cultivated IP value by launching blind boxes about scenic
blind boxes. In the 1980s, lucky bag was developed into spots; Holiland, KFC, etc. in the catering industry
gashapon which mainly contained animation peripherals released collaborations with POP MART.
products. Since 2016, blind box has become a hot issue
in China. At the same time, POP MART has led the blind Existing studies have focused on probabilistic goods
box industry with its unique IP incubation and operation and opaque selling. Fay and Xie (2008) [17] proposed the
model. The data published by iiMedia Research shows concept of probabilistic goods for the first time, which are
that, in 2020, the market size of China's lifestyle toys defined as a gamble involving a probability of getting any
one of a series of diverse distinct items. The uncertainty

© The Author(s) 2023

G. Vilas Bhau et al. (Eds.): MSEA 2022, ACSR 101, pp. 849– , 2023.
https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-042-8_121
850 K. Pang et al.

is the essential attribute of probabilistic goods that applied the SOR theory to consumer behaviors, holding
distinguish them from traditional products [16]. For the idea that external stimuli act on consumers' internal
example, airlines sell low-cost tickets without leaking perceptions and thus affect their behaviors. Donovan and
flight details. The uncertainty of probabilistic products Rossiter (1982) [15] were the first to apply the model to
determines the additional risks purchasers need to bear: a store shopping scenario, analyzing the impact of stimuli
even if sellers offer deeply discounted products, the low in retail environment on customers’ perceptions and
involvement degree in product and service information behaviors. Based on the SOR theory, this paper uses
and the poor sense of control over the purchase process positive emotions as an intermediary variable to explore
will still make the buyers feel mental pressure. Opaque how product features of blind box affect consumers'
selling can be divided into two sorts: horizontal selling purchase intention.
and vertical selling, referring to pricing the same for
different products and pricing dynamically respectively 2.1. Product Features of Blind Box and
[16]. Blind boxes of POP MART with a unit price of 59 Consumers' Intention to Purchase
yuan are horizontal probabilistic goods [30].
Blind boxes often appear as a whole set. Exposed to
In addition to the uncertainty, blind boxes are
traditional concepts like "perfection" and "completeness",
incubated by designers and endowed with IP value,
individuals often have the desire to collect the entire
indicating the artistic characteristic. When it comes to art,
series of blind boxes. In addition, it is also highlighted
people usually think of high-value collections such as
that producing toys should be on the basis of a specific
paintings, antiques, luxury goods and so on, whose
theme, which is usually combined with the IP image of
financial properties allow art investment to be used as a
animation, film or teleplay, and the developers are
hedge against inflation, as a store of wealth, or as a lever
supposed to exploit the stories behind them. The
of obtaining speculative capital [11], consequently,
elevation of both aesthetic value and IP value accelerates
collecting artworks is considered as an upper-class
the promotion of blind box’s collection value.
activity. However, blind boxes with a unit price of 59
yuan become affordable collections for the mass-market. The uncertainty attribute of blind box determines that
McInish and Srivastava (1982) [21] pointed out that purchasers will get repetitive or unattractive styles
collection investment is complementary to other types of reluctantly during the collecting process. That’s why
investment. Benefits from art investment are not only players of blind box exchange and trade excess dolls via
embodied as the increasing prices, but also the spiritual second-hand platforms to obtain dolls they need.
rewards [5]. As for the studies about toys, Shanaev, According to the data of “Xianyu”—a second-hand
Shimkus, Ghimire, and Sharma (2020) [25] explored trading platform owned by Alibaba, the hidden style of
lego's investment features as an alternative asset from "Pan Shen" has soared from the retail price of 59 yuan to
financial perspective; Dobrynskaya and Kishilova (2022) 2350 yuan while the transaction volume of “Molly” has
probed secondary market returns on collectible toys using exceeded 230,000, with an average price of 270 yuan so
lego sets as an example, and the results showed that such far. The scarcity of hidden styles makes it a profitable and
toys with decreasing over time supply and high alternative sort of investment [14]. In addition to second-
collectible values seemed to yield high profits. hand transactions, creation and modification by players
themselves are also indispensable in the downstream
According to what has been mentioned above, we can
industry of blind box. In exchanging process, players are
know that there has been a lack of empirical analysis to
able to realize re-commodification and turn assets into
explore the impact of blind box’s characteristics on
cash.
consumers' willingness to purchase from the perspective
of blind box itself. In view of this, based on SOR model, Researches show that one of the key factors
this paper divides the blind box’s features into three influencing consumers' purchasing behavior is their
dimensions: collection, investment and uncertainty, and perception of benefits and risks, and consumers will
analyzes consumers’ behaviors under the circumstance of constantly evaluate the trade-offs between benefits and
blind box economic, aiming to fill the theoretical gap and risks and make decisions based on the trade-offs [12]. In
contribute to blind box industry to go steady and far. the case of blind box, however, the unpredictability and
risks somewhat are special and charming. The cause of
2.RESEARCH ASSUMPTIONS the blind box boom can be explained by the experiment
of "Skinner Box": A hungry rat was placed in a closed
The SOR model was firstly proposed by experimental box and could get food when touching the
environmental psychologists, Mehrabian and Russell lever in box. In the context of dropping food per minute,
(1974) [22], to explore the relation between stimulus, the rat would pull the lever at regular intervals to get food.
organism and response. Influenced by the stimulating of In the random probability circumstance, on the contrary,
internal or external factors, individuals change their states the mouse would continue to touch the lever and be very
and make corresponding behavioral responses, such as excited. Probabilistic goods take advantage of the
approach or avoidance. Belk and Russell (1975) [8] mechanism of random probability to evoke the
 Empirical Research on How Product Features of Blind Box Affect Consumers’ Purchase Intention 851

consumers' gambling psychology: even if per purchase H2b: The investment of blind box is positively related
action is an independent event, the buyer will also hold to consumers' positive emotions
the fallacy that "the likelihood of occurrence of an event
H2c: The uncertainty of blind box is positively related
in the random sequence is related to the event that has
to consumers' positive emotions
occurred", alleging that "if I don’t get the hidden style this
time, it will be more possible to get it next time". The
uncertainty and unpredictability of blind box make the
2.3. Consumers' Positive Emotions and
purchaser increasingly look forward to next unpacking Intention to Purchase
and fall into a philatelic collection trap. Therefore, this
The feeling of surprise resulting from exceeding
paper proposes the hypotheses:
expectation can evoke highly active emotions and put
H1a: The collection of blind box is positively related consumers in a state of extreme excitement [24][28].
to consumers' purchase intention Those pleasant moods can exert a positive impact on their
subsequent perceptions and behaviors, such as higher
H1b: The investment of blind box is positively related
loyalty, positive word of mouth and willingness to buy
to consumers' purchase intention
[2][13]. Customers will continuously take the initiative to
H1c: The uncertainty of blind box is positively related drive themselves maintaining positive emotions,
to consumers' purchase intention increasing positive reactions and reducing negative
actions as long as they develop them [4]. Beatty and
2.2. Product Features of Blind Box and Ferrell (1998) [6] noted that consumers’ perceived
Consumers' Positive Emotions pleasure when browsing online stores affects their
impulse to buy. It has also been confirmed that emotions
Driven by habits, blind box consumption is typically imply consumers’ attitudes, which sellers can use to
instant self-pleasing consumption and is causing predict their decisions [20]. Pleasure and delight are
accumulation effects. Once buyers’ desire to collect the positively correlated with purchase intention [3][7] [31]
whole set of toys is ignited, not only are they prone to while negative sentiment reduces it [10]. Therefore, this
obtain mental satisfaction in the process of accumulation article proposes the following assumption:
and collection, but they’ll also emotionally adhere to the
H3: Consumers' positive emotions are positively
toys, guiding by the sense of completion. Many players
related to consumers' purchase intention.
display lifestyle toys at home, just like professional
collectors. By collecting dolls, players have both enriched
their collection and gained a sense of progress. Most of
2.4. Mediation Effect of Consumers' Positive
the existing apps about blind box are equipped with the Emotion
function of "box cabinet", which allows players to show
In the SOR model, “S” is the environmental stimulus,
other players the dolls they have collected, enhancing
“O” refers to cognition of organism, and “R” stands for
their sense of self-identity and achievement. Meanwhile,
response. Some scholars have found that positive
many buyers hold the idea that even if they get unsightly
emotions play a mediating role between the
dolls or quit this hobby in the future, they can maintain
characteristics of goods and the willingness to consume
small losses or even make profits due to the sharp price
[23]. Emotions reflect people's perceptions and opinions
premium on the second-hand market of blind box.
and play roles in their behaviors and actions on purchase
In the course of unveiling the boxes, a series of [27]. Consequently, this study presents the hypotheses:
emotions and feelings are interweaved, such as the
H4a: Consumers' Positive Emotions have a mediation
nervousness when unboxing, the surprise of gaining the
effect between the collection of blind box and purchase
hidden styles, the depression when getting unalluring
intention
styles, the belief that the whole set can be collected and
the behaviors of constantly buying like a gambler. A H4b: Consumers' Positive Emotions have a mediation
variety of experiences stir up emotional ripples, and effect between the investment of blind box and purchase
sentimental values exceed the utilization value of blind intention
box. Even though the expectation of an indeterminate
H4c: Consumers' Positive Emotions have a mediation
reward is low, it is still more motivating than definite one
effect between the uncertainty of blind box and purchase
[26]. Buyers of blind boxes, resembling the rats in the
intention
experiment of "Skinner Box", are expectantly pulling the
lever of repurchasing over and over again in the context
of uncertain rewards. In view of discussions above, the
following hypotheses are proposed:
H2a: The collection of blind box is positively related
to consumers' positive emotions
852 K. Pang et al.

PE2: It makes me feel

excited to buy blind
boxes
PI1: I ’ m willing to
buy blind boxes
PI2: I ’ m willing to Jiménez
Purchase
recommend blind and
Intention
boxes to others Mendoza
(PI)
PI3: It is likely for me to (2013) [19]
Figure 1: Research model
buy blind boxes
3.RESEARCH DESIGN continuously
In order to ensure the reliability and validity, items of
Table 1: Questionnaire items
questionnaire refer to existing mature scales and use
Variables Items References seven-point Likert-type scale to measure variables. We
collected questionnaires online and gathered a total of
CO1: I think blind 341. Finally, 282 valid questionnaires were screened.
boxes are of great A. Yan, Among them, the number of male accounts for 47.5%
Collection collection value Chen, and while that of female takes up 52.5%. Participants aged
18-25 rank the first with a proportion of 46.8%, generally
(CO) CO2: I hope that I can Cheng
in coincidence with the age characteristic of "Generation
get the whole set of (2009) [29] Z"—a buzzword meaning persons who were born from
blind boxes 1995-2009 and pay much attention to their hobbies and
personalities.
IN1: Even if I get
unneeded styles, I can 4.EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS AND RESULTS
resell them
IN2: I think blind Bennett 4.1. Reliability and Validity
Investment
boxes are of and Kottasz Reliability is used to verify the consistency and
(IN)
meaningful return on (2013) [9] stability of questionnaires. Using SPSS26.0, the results
investment
show that the overall Cronbach's α of the scale is 0.887,
while that of each item is greater than or equal to 0.800,
IN3: I think blind indicating high reliability.
boxes will appreciate
Table 2: Descriptive statistics of constructs
UN1: I find it
Standardized
mysterious that I Variabl Cronba
Regression CR AVE
can ’ t cannot know e ch’s α
weight
what is in beforehand
Arnold and CO1 0.908
Uncertainty UN2: I find unboxing 0.835 0.811 0.685
Reynolds
(UN) blind boxes CO2 0.738
(2003) [1]
stimulating IN1 0.752
UN3: To me, unboxing IN2 0.790 0.800 0.803 0.576
blind boxes is an IN3 0.734
adventure UN1 0.761
Positive PE1: It makes me feel UN2 0.820 0.852 0.854 0.661
Finn and A.
Emotions delighted to buy blind UN3 0.855
(2005) [18]
(PE) boxes
PE1 0.844
0.876 0.814 0.686
PE2 0.812
PI1 0.892 0.882 0.885 0.719
 Empirical Research on How Product Features of Blind Box Affect Consumers’ Purchase Intention 853

PI2 0.824 IN→

H1b 0.173* Supported
PI3 0.826 PI
UN
Validity is composed of convergent validity and H1c 0.164* Supported
→PI
discriminant validity. The AVE (Average Variance
Extracted) of each construct is larger than 0.5, between CO
H2a 0.357*** Supported
0.576 and 0.719. Meanwhile, each value of →PE
CR(Composite Reliability) is bigger than 0.8, between
IN→
0.803 and 0.885, implying that the statistics quality is H2b 0.268** Supported
good and convergent validity is high. The correlation PE
coefficients among the variables are less than the square UN
root of AVE value of corresponding variables, which H2c 0.408*** Supported
→PE
shows great discriminant validity.
PE→
Table 3: Correlation of constructs and square root of H3 0.475*** Supported
AVE PI

CO IN UN PE PI Bootstrap was adopted in order to examine the

CO 0.685 mediation effect of positive emotions. With the sample
size of 5000 and 95% confidence interval, the mediation
IN 0.454 0.576 effect will be confirmed if the interval excludes zero
UN 0.327 0.260 0.661 between the lower and upper bound. According to this,
the mediation effect was testified.
PE 0.481 0.609 0.445 0.686
Table 5: Mediation effect of positive emotions
PI 0.575 0.558 0.565 0.615 0.719
Square Percentile
Effect
root of 0.828 0.759 0.813 0.828 0.848 Hypothesis Path 95%CI
value
AVE Lower Upper
CO→PE→
4.2. Structural Equation Modeling Analysis H4a
PI
0.141** 0.033 0.355

Structural Equation Modeling is a fruitful way to IN→PE→

measure and analyze intricate causation of variables. H4b 0.144** 0.023 0.297
PI
Typically, it allows users to employ latent variables to
solve the problem that several data cannot be gauged UN→PE→
H4c 0.203** 0.079 0.419
directly. This paper used AMOS26.0 to establish a PI
structural equation model, regarding the three dimensions
of blind box features as independent variables, positive
emotions as intermediary variable, and purchase intention
as dependent variable. After importing data to it, the
5.CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS
measurement model was estimated. The results not only
indicated great fit (χ2/df=1.609<3 ， GFI=0.914>0.9 ，
5.1. Implications for Research
NFI=0.932>0.9 ， IFI=0.973>0.9 ， CFI=0.972>0.9 ，
AGFI=0.858>0.8 ， RMSEA=0.066<0.08) but also Dividing the product characteristics of blind boxes
showed that all the hypotheses of direct effects are into three dimensions: collection, investment and
supported. uncertainty, this paper explored the connotations and
Table 4: Path coefficient and result mechanisms to empirically analyze consumers’ purchase
intention. The implications are as follows:
Standardized Firstly, product features of blind box are positively
Hypothesis Path path Result related to consumers' intention to purchase. The path
coefficient coefficient of collection is 0.231, ranking the first and
followed by investment and uncertainty. In view of this,
CO the motivation to buy blind boxes is mainly from personal
H1a 0.231* Supported
→PI preferences. Consumers are willing to collect blind boxes
as artworks to meet their own hobbies and philatelic
psychology. At the same time, blind box buyers also pay
854 K. Pang et al.

attention to the future development and appreciation companies must follow laws and ethics so that blind box
space of dolls The unpredictability of the blind box makes industry can be sustainable and sound.
players hold the idea of " I’ll certainly be able to get my
favorite style next time " and continue to buy. The 5.3. Limitations and Prospects
investment and uncertainty reflect the combination of
buyers’ rationality and irrationality. First of all, the booming of blind boxes is closely
related to the pursuit of social capital by young people.
Besides, product features of blind box positively This article ignores consumers’ psychologies, such as
affect consumers' positive emotions. The uncertainty social communication, and symbolic consumption. These
accounts for the largest proportion in the three factors of can be studied in the future.
product features with a weight of 0.475. Blind box sellers
evoke customer delight by the marketing method of Secondly, antiques, paintings and other luxury goods
"unpredictability & hidden/limited edition" and increase that are also art collections will increase in value over
their profits. The role of collection and investment on time, but will it be true for blind box? Will the investment
customer emotions cannot be ignored too: the display, value reduce because of the declining market? Will the
exchange and trading process enhance self and collective second-hand market exist at that time? At present, the
identity. answers are unknowns.
Meanwhile, consumers' positive emotions are In the end, the uncertainty is a double-edged sword,
positively related to purchase intention and play a which not only brings emotional arousal to buyers, but
mediation effect between the investment of blind box and also increases risks. This article only explores the positive
purchase intention. This conclusion coincides with effects of the uncertainty. In the future, scholars can
relevant theories: consumers' emotions, cognition and research into the defects and offer measures to avoid them.
state are important factors affecting their intentions to buy.
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