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Applied Statistical ­Inference
with MINITAB®
Applied Statistical ­Inference
with MINITAB®
­Second ­Edition

Sally A. Lesik
Central Connecticut State University
CRC Press
Taylor & Francis Group
6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300
Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742

© 2019 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

CRC Press is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group, an Informa business

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To the memory of my mother, Irene Lesik, and in honor of my father, John Lesik

To DHK, more than anything, forever and ever, … totally unrehearsed.

Contents

Preface............................................................................................................................................ xiii
Acknowledgments...................................................................................................................... xvii

1. Introduction..............................................................................................................................1
1.1 What is Statistics?...........................................................................................................1
1.2 What This Book Is About..............................................................................................2
1.3 Summary Tables and Graphical Displays..................................................................2
1.4 Descriptive Representations of Data...........................................................................3
1.5 Inferential Statistics.......................................................................................................4
1.6 Populations.....................................................................................................................5
1.7 Different Ways of Collecting Data...............................................................................5
1.8 Types of Variables..........................................................................................................6
1.9 Scales of Variables..........................................................................................................7
1.10 Types of Analyses..........................................................................................................9
1.11 Entering Data into Minitab......................................................................................... 10
1.12 Best Practices................................................................................................................ 11
Exercises................................................................................................................................... 12

2. Graphs and Charts................................................................................................................ 15

2.1 Introduction.................................................................................................................. 15
2.2 Frequency Distributions and Histograms................................................................ 15
2.3 Using Minitab to Create Histograms........................................................................ 17
2.4 Stem-and-Leaf Plots..................................................................................................... 21
2.5 Using Minitab to Create Stem-and-Leaf Plots.........................................................22
2.6 Bar Charts..................................................................................................................... 24
2.7 Using Minitab to Create a Bar Chart......................................................................... 24
2.8 Boxplots......................................................................................................................... 27
2.9 Using Minitab to Create Boxplots.............................................................................. 31
2.10 Scatterplots.................................................................................................................... 32
2.11 Using Minitab to Create Scatterplots........................................................................ 33
2.12 Marginal Plots.............................................................................................................. 33
2.13 Using Minitab to Create Marginal Plots................................................................... 35
2.14 Matrix Plots................................................................................................................... 36
2.15 Using Minitab to Create a Matrix Plot...................................................................... 38
2.16 Best Practices................................................................................................................ 38
Exercises................................................................................................................................... 41
Extending the Ideas................................................................................................................44

3. Descriptive Representations of Data and Random Variables...................................... 47

3.1 Introduction.................................................................................................................. 47
3.2 Descriptive Statistics.................................................................................................... 47
3.3 Measures of Central Tendency................................................................................... 48
3.4 Measures of Variability............................................................................................... 52
3.5 Using Minitab to Calculate Descriptive Statistics................................................... 55

vii
viii Contents

3.6 More on Statistical Inference...................................................................................... 56

3.7 Discrete Random Variables........................................................................................ 58
3.8 Sampling Distributions............................................................................................... 61
3.9 Continuous Random Variables..................................................................................64
3.10 Standard Normal Distribution...................................................................................65
3.11 Non-Standard Normal Distributions........................................................................ 69
3.12 Other Discrete and Continuous Probability Distributions.................................... 73
3.13 The Binomial Distribution.......................................................................................... 74
3.14 The Poisson Distribution............................................................................................ 75
3.15 The t-Distribution........................................................................................................77
3.16 The Chi-Square Distribution...................................................................................... 78
3.17 The F-Distribution........................................................................................................ 79
3.18 Using Minitab to Graph Probability Distributions................................................. 79
Exercises...................................................................................................................................85

4. Statistical Inference for One Sample................................................................................. 93

4.1 Introduction.................................................................................................................. 93
4.2 Confidence Intervals.................................................................................................... 93
4.3 Using Minitab to Calculate Confidence Intervals for a Population Mean........... 99
4.4 Hypothesis Testing: A One-Sample t-Test for a Population Mean...................... 100
4.5 Using Minitab for a One-Sample t-Test................................................................... 106
4.6 Power Analysis for a One-Sample t-Test................................................................. 115
4.7 Using Minitab for a Power Analysis for a One-Sample t-Test............................. 116
4.8 Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests for One Proportion........................ 120
4.9 Using Minitab for a One-Sample Proportion......................................................... 124
4.10 Power Analysis for a One-Sample Proportion....................................................... 127
4.11 Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests for One-Sample Variance............. 129
4.12 Confidence Intervals for One-Sample Variance.................................................... 130
4.13 Hypothesis Tests for One-Sample Variance........................................................... 132
4.14 Using Minitab for One-Sample Variance............................................................... 134
4.15 Power Analysis for One-Sample Variance.............................................................. 136
4.16 Confidence Intervals for One-Sample Count Data............................................... 140
4.17 Using Minitab to Calculate Confidence Intervals for a One-Sample
Count Variable����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 142
4.18 Hypothesis Test for a One-Sample Count Variable............................................... 144
4.19 Using Minitab to Conduct a Hypothesis Test for a One-Sample Count
Variable����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 146
4.20 Using Minitab for a Power Analysis for a One-Sample Poisson......................... 147
4.21 A Note About One- and Two-Tailed Hypothesis Tests........................................ 149
Exercises................................................................................................................................. 151
References.............................................................................................................................. 155

5. Statistical Inference for Two-Sample Data.................................................................... 157

5.1 Introduction................................................................................................................ 157
5.2 Confidence Interval for the Difference Between Two Means.............................. 157
5.3 Using Minitab to Calculate a Confidence Interval for the Difference
Between Two Means������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 160
5.4 Hypothesis Tests for the Difference Between Two Means................................... 162
5.5 Using Minitab to Test the Difference Between Two Means................................. 166
Contents ix

5.6  sing Minitab to Create an Interval Plot................................................................ 167

U
5.7 Using Minitab for a Power Analysis for a Two-Sample t-Test............................. 170
5.8 Paired Confidence Interval and t-Test..................................................................... 172
5.9 Using Minitab for a Paired Confidence Interval and t-Test................................. 176
5.10 Differences Between Two Proportions................................................................... 178
5.11 Using Minitab for Two-Sample Proportion Confidence Intervals and
Hypothesis Tests������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 182
5.12 Power Analysis for a Two-Sample Proportion....................................................... 184
5.13 Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests for Two Variances.......................... 184
5.14 Using Minitab for Testing Two Sample Variances................................................ 191
5.15 Power Analysis for Two-Sample Variances............................................................ 193
5.16 Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests for Two-Count Variables.............. 195
5.17 Using Minitab for a Two-Sample Poisson.............................................................. 198
5.18 Power Analysis for a Two-Sample Poisson Rate.................................................... 199
5.19 Best Practices.............................................................................................................. 201
Exercises................................................................................................................................. 203

6. Simple Linear Regression.................................................................................................. 213

6.1 Introduction................................................................................................................ 213
6.2 The Simple Linear Regression Model..................................................................... 214
6.3 Model Assumptions for Simple Linear Regression.............................................. 220
6.4 Finding the Equation of the Line of Best Fit.......................................................... 221
6.5 Using Minitab for Simple Linear Regression......................................................... 224
6.6 Standard Errors for Estimated Regression Parameters........................................ 227
6.7 Inferences about the Population Regression Parameters..................................... 227
6.8 Using Minitab to Test the Population Slope Parameter........................................ 230
6.9 Confidence Intervals for the Mean Response for a Specific Value of the
Predictor Variable������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 232
6.10 Prediction Intervals for a Response for a Specific Value of the
Predictor Variable������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 233
6.11 Using Minitab to Find Confidence and Prediction Intervals.............................. 235
Exercises................................................................................................................................. 242

7. More on Simple Linear Regression.................................................................................. 247

7.1 Introduction................................................................................................................ 247
7.2 The Coefficient of Determination............................................................................ 247
7.3 Using Minitab to Find the Coefficient of Determination..................................... 249
7.4 The Coefficient of Correlation.................................................................................. 250
7.5 Correlation Inference.................................................................................................254
7.6 Using Minitab for Correlation Analysis................................................................. 257
7.7 Assessing Linear Regression Model Assumptions............................................... 259
7.8 Using Minitab to Create Exploratory Plots of Residuals...................................... 259
7.9 A Formal Test of the Normality Assumption........................................................ 264
7.10 Using Minitab for the Ryan–Joiner Test................................................................. 266
7.11 Assessing Outliers..................................................................................................... 268
7.12 Assessing Outliers: Leverage Values....................................................................... 269
7.13 Using Minitab to Calculate Leverage Values......................................................... 269
7.14 Assessing Outliers: Standardized Residuals......................................................... 272
7.15 Using Minitab to Calculate Standardized Residuals............................................ 273
x Contents

7.16 Assessing Outliers: Cook’s Distances..................................................................... 274

7.17 Using Minitab to Find Cook’s Distances................................................................ 275
7.18 How to Deal with Outliers....................................................................................... 276
Exercises................................................................................................................................. 277
References.............................................................................................................................. 283

8. Multiple Regression Analysis........................................................................................... 285

8.1 Introduction................................................................................................................ 285
8.2 Basics of Multiple Regression Analysis.................................................................. 285
8.3 Using Minitab to Create Matrix Plots..................................................................... 287
8.4 Using Minitab for Multiple Regression.................................................................. 289
8.5 The Coefficient of Determination for Multiple Regression.................................. 290
8.6 The Analysis of Variance Table................................................................................ 292
8.7 Testing Individual Population Regression Parameters........................................ 296
8.8 Using Minitab to Test Individual Regression Parameters................................... 299
8.9 Multicollinearity........................................................................................................300
8.10 Variance Inflation Factors......................................................................................... 302
8.11 Using Minitab to Calculate Variance Inflation Factors........................................ 303
8.12 Multiple Regression Model Assumptions..............................................................304
8.13 Using Minitab to Check Multiple Regression Model Assumptions...................305
Exercises.................................................................................................................................306

9. More on Multiple Regression........................................................................................... 313

9.1 Introduction................................................................................................................ 313
9.2 Using Categorical Predictor Variables.................................................................... 313
9.3 Using Minitab for Categorical Predictor Variables............................................... 315
9.4 Adjusted R 2................................................................................................................. 321
9.5 Best Subsets Regression............................................................................................ 324
9.6 Using Minitab for Best Subsets Regression............................................................ 329
9.7 Confidence and Prediction Intervals for Multiple Regression............................ 331
9.8 Using Minitab to Calculate Confidence and Prediction Intervals
for a Multiple Regression Analysis������������������������������������������������������������������������ 331
9.9 Assessing Outliers..................................................................................................... 333
Exercises.................................................................................................................................334

10. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)........................................................................................ 341

10.1 Introduction................................................................................................................ 341
10.2 Basic Experimental Design....................................................................................... 341
10.3 One-Way ANOVA......................................................................................................342
10.4 One-Way ANOVA Model Assumptions................................................................. 349
10.5 Assumption of Constant Variance........................................................................... 350
10.6 Normality Assumption............................................................................................. 355
10.7 Using Minitab for One-Way ANOVAs.................................................................... 357
10.8 Multiple Comparison Techniques........................................................................... 370
10.9 Using Minitab for Multiple Comparisons.............................................................. 373
10.10 Power Analysis and One-Way ANOVA.................................................................. 374
Exercises................................................................................................................................. 378
References.............................................................................................................................. 383
Contents xi

11. Nonparametric Statistics.................................................................................................... 385

11.1 Introduction................................................................................................................ 385
11.2 Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test...................................................................................... 385
11.3 Using Minitab for the Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test............................................... 389
11.4 The Mann–Whitney Test........................................................................................... 395
11.5 Using Minitab for the Mann–Whitney Test...........................................................400
11.6 Kruskal–Wallis Test...................................................................................................400
11.7 Using Minitab for the Kruskal–Wallis Test............................................................405
Exercises................................................................................................................................. 411

12. Two-Way Analysis of Variance and Basic Time Series................................................ 417

12.1 Two-Way Analysis of Variance................................................................................ 417
12.2 Using Minitab for a Two-Way ANOVA.................................................................. 424
12.3 Basic Time Series Analysis.......................................................................................440
Exercises................................................................................................................................. 449

Appendix ..................................................................................................................................... 453

Index ............................................................................................................................................. 461
Preface

What a difference a decade makes! It’s hard to believe that it has been more than 10 years
since I began writing the first edition of Applied Statistical Inference with Minitab. And
while the core motivations for writing the first edition still remain, there have been a
­significant number of changes incorporated throughout the second edition. Some of the
most ­significant changes were guided by my experience teaching statistics to students
who are not mathematics or statistics majors, but who apply statistics in their discipline.
My ­primary objective was and still remains to write a book that does not lack mathemati-
cal rigor, but provides readers with the tools and techniques to apply statistics in their
given fields. Not only does the second edition expand on the core motivations of the first
edition but it is also a reflection of my own growth as a teacher.
Many statistics books are written for readers learning statistics for the first time. But
what distinguishes this book from others is the focus on the applications of statistics
­without compromising on mathematical rigor. The intent is to present the material in a
seamless step-by-step approach so that readers are first introduced to a topic, given the
details of the underlying mathematical foundations along with a detailed description of
how to interpret the findings, and are shown an illustration of how to use the statistical
software program Minitab to perform the same analysis.
Throughout my many years of teaching, I have found that readers often find it easier
to learn statistics by being exposed to the underlying distributions and calculations and
then understanding how the software essentially performs all of the same calculations.
Presenting the details on sampling distributions in addition to how the calculations are
done gives readers a solid foundation in applying the many different statistical methods
and techniques on their own while also increasing their confidence in interpreting the
output that is generated by a statistical software program such as Minitab. I ­deliberately
avoided including any computational formulas because I want readers to be able to
see what the formulas are actually calculating. For instance, in calculating the sample
­variance, while computational formulas are often perceived as “easier” to calculate, the
more ­formal calculations do give readers the opportunity to see the underlying details
of such a c­ alculation, as the “average” squared difference between the actual data values
and the sample mean. In my opinion, computational formulas only distract readers from
gaining a deeper understanding of what the statistic is calculating only for the sake of
simplicity.
This book is written to be user-friendly for readers and practitioners who are not experts
in statistics, but who want to gain a solid understanding of basic statistical inference.
While the presentation does not lack in the mathematics that underlies statistics, this book
is oriented toward the practical use of statistics. The audience for this book may come
from diverse disciplines, the examples, discussions, and exercises are based on data and
scenarios that are common to readers in their everyday lives.
Most of the exercises in the second edition are new, where much of the focus is to give the
reader some exposure to the many different types of questions that can be answered using
statistics. However, the use of “big data” is not considered in this book because it is assumed
that most of the methods described herein are focused on data obtained through e­ mpirical
and/or experimental studies, not exhaustive data mining or data science t­ echniques.
However, many of the topics covered in this book can be extended to big data sets.

xiii
xiv Preface

The second edition includes many new topics such as one- and two-sample variances,
one- and two-sample Poisson rates, and more nonparametric statistics. There is also the
addition of Best Practices sections that describe some common pitfalls and provide p ­ ractical
advice on statistical inference.
One of the challenges that I faced as a student learning statistics came from the many
different perspectives that various disciplines have about statistics. And although such
differences are often a source of tension, such disconnection motivated me to think more
deeply about learning statistics and how to best present applied statistical inference in
a general and understandable way so that readers can build on what is covered in this
book and apply their knowledge to more advanced courses. It is for this reason that the
­underlying theory of random variables and sampling distributions remain as the primary
foundation for the different inferential techniques that are emphasized throughout.
I have always been a big advocate for learning one single statistical software package at
a time. Not only does focusing on a single statistical software package allow the reader
to obtain a much more in-depth understanding of the given package, but I also believe
that gaining a strong foundation with one statistical software package allows the reader
to be able to easily adapt to other statistics programs with only a minimal amount of
effort. Minitab was and still remains a natural choice for a first course in applied inference.
Minitab has very intuitive menus and informative dialog boxes, as well as very clear and
in-depth help menus. These help menus provide everything from the formulas used, to
specific examples, to how to interpret the findings in a clear and meaningful way. In addi-
tion to being user-friendly for the beginner, Minitab also has some very advanced statisti-
cal methods and techniques.
Chapter 1 provides a basic introduction to some of the more common terminologies that
one may likely encounter when learning statistics for the first time. And while ­conventions
and definitions do differ across disciplines, I tried to stay consistent with the terminol-
ogies and notations used in Minitab. In the second edition, I added a discussion about
­physical and conceptual populations.
Chapter 2 gives a basic description of some of the more common graphs and charts that
are used in applied inference such as histograms, stem-and-leaf plots, bar charts, boxplots,
scatterplots, and marginal plots. I have tried to keep the presentation aligned with the
conventions that are used in Minitab.
Chapter 3 presents basic descriptive statistics as well as a discussion of random variables
and sampling distributions. The calculations for descriptive statistics have been carried
out in great detail using the notations and symbols of a more traditional statistics course.
The second edition also presents some of the more common discrete distributions such as
the binomial and Poisson, as well as continuous distributions such as the t, Chi-Square,
and F. I have also added a detailed discussion about the use of Minitab to graph ­probability
distributions as well as finding probabilities.
Chapter 4 provides a first look at basic statistical inference. This chapter describes
­inference for one sample, such as the mean, proportion, variance, and count. Confidence
intervals are described in addition to providing a detailed discussion of their inter­
pretation. Hypothesis tests are introduced for a single mean, proportion, variance, and
count. I have elaborated on how inferences can be made with both confidence intervals
and hypothesis tests by continually referring back to the sampling distribution. There
is also an initial ­discussion and conceptual introduction to conducting a power analysis
for all the different one-sample tests in addition to detailed descriptions on how to use
Minitab throughout.
Preface xv

Chapter 5 provides a more in-depth discussion of confidence intervals and ­hypothesis

tests by using sample data collected from two populations such as two means, two
­proportions, two variances, and two counts. The material presented in Chapter 5 builds
on that presented in Chapter 4 regarding the interpretation of the findings as well as how
to conduct a power analysis for all of the different two-sample tests.
Chapter 6 gives an introduction to simple linear regression analysis. In order to
­understand simple linear regression, one needs to have a good intuitive feel for why “the
line of best fit” is called so. I have elaborated on the importance of the line of best fit by
providing a description of why this line is “better’ when compared to a different line that
connects two random points. This chapter also provides an introduction to confidence and
prediction intervals by making inferences using the line of best fit.
Chapter 7 provides more detail on simple linear regression by describing statistics
for model fit such as the coefficient of determination and the coefficient of correlation.
Further details are provided regarding the assumptions underlying a simple linear
regression analysis as well as using the Ryan–Joiner test as a formal test of the normality
assumption. Further discussion about outliers and how Minitab identifies outliers has
been presented.
Chapter 8 gives an introduction to multiple regression analysis. Details of the ANOVA
table and the issue of multicollinearity are described.
Chapter 9 provides more detail on conducting a multiple regression analysis by
­introducing categorical predictor variables, how to use Best Subsets regression to find an
optimal model fit, and how to assess the impact of outliers.
Chapter 10 begins by providing a conceptual introduction to basic experimental designs
and randomized block designs. The basics of a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) are
described in addition to learning the use of Bartlett’s and Levene’s tests as formal tests of
the assumption of constant variance. Multiple comparison techniques such as the least
significant difference (LSD) are introduced as a way of identifying the magnitude and
direction for any significant differences found in an ANOVA.
Chapter 11 provides a basic discussion of nonparametric statistics. Calculations of
the test statistics for nonparametric tests such as the Wilcoxon signed-rank test, Mann–
Whitney test, and the Kruskall–Wallis test are described in detail, and the calculations are
aligned with those that are used by Minitab.
Chapter 12 gives a discussion of two-way ANOVAs and a brief introduction to time
series analysis.
This book can be used for a one-semester course in basic statistical inference for ­students
who have some familiarity with introductory statistics. And while some exposure to
­introductory statistics is assumed, the first three chapters provide a concise review of the
topics that this book builds on. A typical three-credit course would cover most of the
­material in Chapter 4 through Chapter 10. A four-credit course could include the material
in the three-credit course in addition to some of the material presented in Chapters 11
and 12. The crux of the topics in any applied inference course are those that are presented
in Chapters 4 and 5, and the coverage of these topics is needed in any course, whether
­beginning or advanced.
For a trial request page that allows access to a free 30-day trial of Minitab Statistical
Software, Release 18, please see http://www.minitab.com/products/minitab/free-trial/.
Acknowledgments

Over the course of the last decade, I am very fortunate to have met so many extremely
­talented and dedicated students who helped guide most of the revisions in the revised
book.
I am grateful to my friends and colleagues, Frank Bensics and Zbigniew Prusak, who
provided suggestions and comments on the first edition and their input still remains a
core component of the second edition. I am also grateful to my friend and colleague Daniel
Miller, who has always been an advocate for being true to the discipline of statistics. I will
always cherish his words of wisdom and admire his dedication to the profession.
I am fortunate to have wonderful colleagues who have always been supportive: Roger
Bilisoly, Robert Crouse, Darius Dziuda, Chun Jin, Daniel Larose, Krishna Saha, and
Gurbakhshash Singh. They are a remarkable group of people and a joy to work with.
David Grubbs, Sherry Thomas, Emeline Jarvie, and the entire staff at Taylor and Francis
have always been very helpful and supportive throughout the process of this revision.
Special thanks to Jay Margolis and Kevin Craig from CRC, Christine Bayley and Denise
Macafee from Minitab®, and to the previous adopters who provided feedback. I will
always be grateful that I was given the opportunity to work on this project that was based
solely on my experience as a teacher.

Correspondence
Although a large amount of effort has gone into making this text clear and accurate, if you
have any suggestions regarding errors or content, or feel that some clarification is needed,
please contact me at [email protected]. I would be interested in hearing your f­ eedback and
comments.
Portions of the input and output contained in this publication/book are printed with
permission of Minitab Inc. All such material remains the exclusive property and copyright
of Minitab Inc. All rights reserved.
Minitab® and all other trademarks and logos for the Company’s products and services
are the exclusive property of Minitab Inc. All other marks referenced remain the property
of their respective owners. See minitab.com for more information.

xvii
1
Introduction

1.1 What is Statistics?
Statistics is a branch of mathematics that deals with collecting, analyzing, presenting, and
interpreting data. Many different fields use statistics as a way to understand complex
­relationships by collecting and analyzing data and presenting the results in a ­meaningful
way. For instance, a researcher in education may want to know if using computers in an
algebra classroom can be effective in helping students build their mathematical skills. To
answer this question, the researcher could collect data about computer usage and math-
ematical skills and try to extract information in a meaningful way. A marketing manager
for a luxury car manufacturer may want to know whether or not customers are satisfied
with their luxury car purchase. The manager may collect data for a sample of their custom-
ers and then use this data to make a generalization to the larger group of all their luxury
car buyers. In other fields, such as environmental science, researchers may want to figure
out the factors that may contribute to global warming by collecting data about the makes
and models of automobiles emitting larger amounts of greenhouse gas.
Since statistics deals with collecting, analyzing, presenting, and interpreting data, we
first need to develop an idea about what data is. Generally speaking, data is information,
characteristics, or attributes about some observation of interest or a set of observations of
interest. A set of data represents a collection of variables that represent information about
characteristics or attributes for a number of different observations. Data sets usually con-
sist of a collection of observations and each observation can have measures of a variable
or variables of interest. For instance, Table 1.1 gives an example of a small data set that
describes the number of credits attempted, the number of hours worked each week, major,
and gender for a random sample of five university freshmen. The rows of the data set rep-
resent each observation consisting of an individual student. The columns of the data set
represent the different variables, and each student has measures for each of the four dif-
ferent variables that represent the number of credits, number of hours worked each week,
major, and gender.
There are two basic types of data that can be collected, quantitative data and qualitative data.
Quantitative data is data that is numeric in form. The main purpose of collecting q ­ uantitative
data is to describe some characteristic or attribute using numbers. For ­example, quantita-
tive data that represent the number of credits taken by students in a semester or the num-
ber of hours that students work each week can be collected. On the other hand, qualitative
data is data that is categorical in nature and describes some characteristic or attribute with
words or descriptions. For instance, qualitative data can be used to describe a student’s
major or their gender.

1
2 Applied Statistical Inference with MINITAB®

TABLE 1.1
Data Set Showing Different Characteristics for Five University Freshmen
Observation Number of Number of Hours
Number Credits Worked Each Week Major Gender
1 15 22 Business Male
2 12 20 Engineering Male
3 9 0 Education Female
4 18 18 Business Female
5 15 9 Science Male

The data set in Table 1.1 contains both quantitative and qualitative variables. The ­number
of credits and the number of hours worked each week are examples of quantitative data
since these variables are numeric in form, whereas major and gender are examples of
­qualitative data since these variables describe different categories or characteristics.
Determining whether to collect quantitative or qualitative data is driven by the
­characteristic or relationship that is being studied and the type of data that is available.

1.2 What This Book Is About

The purpose of this book is to introduce some of the many different statistical methods
and techniques that can be used to analyze data along with effective ways to present the
information extracted from data in a meaningful way. There are three broad areas of sta-
tistics that will be covered in this book: summary tables and graphical displays, descriptive
representations of data, and inferential statistics.

1.3 Summary Tables and Graphical Displays

Graphical displays of data visually present some of the properties or characteristics of data
by using different types of charts and graphs. The advantage of using charts and graphs
to display data is that large amounts of information can be displayed in a concise manner.
For example, suppose you are interested in comparing the fuel efficiency of four dif-
ferent types of vehicles— Minivans, SUVs, Compact Cars, and Mid-Size Cars. You could
obtain the average miles per gallon (MPG) for both city and highway driving for each of
the types of vehicles and then create a summary table and/or a graph to illustrate the com-
parison between the different types of vehicles. A summary table is given in Table 1.2 and
a graphical display is illustrated in Figure 1.1.
Note that Figure 1.1 graphically displays the city and highway MPG for each of the four
different types of vehicles, and the graph allows you to compare and contrast mileages
between the four different types of vehicles.
Introduction 3

TABLE 1.2
Tabular Summary of the Average City and Highway MPG for
Minivans, SUVs, Compact Cars, and Mid-Size Cars
Average Highway
Average City MPG MPG
Minivans 17.5 24.1
SUVs 17.4 22.4
Compact Cars 26.0 33.5
Mid-Size Cars 22.4 30.2

FIGURE 1.1
Bar chart comparing the average city MPG and the average highway MPG based on the four different types of
vehicles.

1.4 Descriptive Representations of Data

Descriptive representations of data consist of methods and techniques that can be used to
describe and summarize data. For instance, if you have ever shopped for a new car, you
may have noticed that the sticker on the window of the car provides you with an estimate of
the average miles per gallon (MPG) that you can expect for both city and highway driving.
This number describes, on average, the gas mileage that you can expect from the vehicle. For
example, if the sticker on the window of your new car is 25 MPG in the city and 36 MPG on
the highway, then you can expect that your new vehicle will get approximately 25 MPG driv-
ing in the city and approximately 36 MPG driving on the highway. This does not necessarily
suggest that you are guaranteed to get these mileages because these numbers are averages
and they will vary based on your driving style and how you maintain your vehicle, along
4 Applied Statistical Inference with MINITAB®

with a host of other factors. These numbers represent ­summarized data that you can use to
estimate how efficient (or inefficient) the vehicle is. If you want to learn more about the infor-
mation provided on the window labels of new cars, visit the website of the U.S Department
of Energy (https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/label/learn-more-gasoline-label.shtml).

1.5 Inferential Statistics
Inferential statistics are methods and techniques that can be used to estimate or predict an
unknown characteristic of interest by using available data. For example, suppose the manu-
facturer of a luxury car wants to know how satisfied their customers are with their vehicles.
Ideally, they would like to be able to survey every single customer who has purchased a
vehicle (in other words, the population of all customers who purchased the luxury vehicle)
and then see what percentage respond that they are satisfied. But as you can probably
imagine, it is usually either impossible or impractical to survey every single person who has
­purchased this luxury car and get a response from them. But if the manufacturer can obtain
a representative portion or a sample of their customers and ask this sample to give their
opinion, the manufacturer can then use the data obtained from this sample to make a gener-
alization to the population of all of their customers. Thus, the percentage of the p­ opulation of
their customers who are satisfied with their vehicle purchase can then be estimated.
A population is a collection of data that consists of every single possible item of interest.
These items are referred to as elements of the population. For instance, a population could
be described as all of the students at a particular college or university and the elements
of the population would be the individual students. A population could also be all of
the ­customers who buy a particular brand of luxury car and the elements would be the
­individual customers.
Any value or measure that represents a characteristic or describes an attribute of a
­population is called a parameter. For example, the average age of the population of all the
students at a particular college or university is considered a population parameter because
it is a value or measure that represents a characteristic or attribute of the entire population.
The percentage of the population of all customers who are satisfied with a particular brand
of luxury car is also a parameter.
A sample is a collection of observations that consists of a subset, or portion, of a population
of interest. For instance, a sample from the population of all the students at a particular col-
lege or university could be the seniors at the college or university. A sample could also be a
subset that is selected at random from a given population. A random sample is a sample taken
from a population such that each sample of a given size from the population has the exact
same chance of being selected as does any other sample of the same size. A random sample is
one of the best ways of obtaining a sample that is representative of the underlying population.
Any value or measure that describes a characteristic or attribute of a sample is called
a ­statistic. For example, the average age of the seniors at a particular college or u ­ niversity
would be a statistic because it represents a characteristic or attribute of a given sample.
A statistic could also be the average age for a sample of students who were selected at
­random from the population of all the students at a particular college or university.
Another example of a statistic is the percentage of a random sample of customers who are
satisfied with a particular brand of luxury car. This is a statistic because it represents a
value or measure that describes a characteristic or attribute of the given sample.
Introduction 5

1.6 Populations
Throughout this book, we will be describing many different methods and techniques that
can be used to make an inference, or prediction, about an unknown population parameter
of interest based on information that is contained in a sample statistic. These different
methods and techniques rely on using statistics collected from a representative sample to
make generalizations about an unknown population parameter or parameters of interest.
There are two different descriptions of populations that you may encounter, and these
are described as physical populations and conceptual populations.
Physical populations are populations whose elements physically exist. For example, the
population of all the students currently enrolled at a college or university can be viewed as
a physical population because the elements (i.e., the students) physically exist. A ­physical
population can also be defined as a population that has a fixed or finite number of elements.
Conceptual populations are populations whose elements exist only in theory. A c­ onceptual
population can also be described as a population that has an infinite number of ele-
ments. For example, the population of all drivers who may drive through a particular
­i ntersection can be described as a conceptual population because there could be (at least
­theoretically) any number of drivers who could decide to drive through the intersection
at any given time.

1.7 Different Ways of Collecting Data

Studies that generate data generally fall into two broad categories—experimental studies
or observational studies. In an experimental study, subjects are assigned to participate in a
treatment program based on a random assignment process. For example, suppose you
want to conduct an experiment to determine if students who use computers in their sta-
tistics class perform better on the final examination as compared to those who do not use
computers in their statistics class. In order to conduct a true experimental study, students
would have to be randomly assigned to either the computer statistics class (this is called
the treatment group) or the noncomputer statistics class (this is called the control group).
To create treatment and control groups using a random assignment, we could flip a fair
coin for each prospective student. Those who receive heads could be assigned to the treat-
ment group (the computer statistics class) and those who receive tails could be assigned
to the control group (the noncomputer statistics class). A comparison of how these two
groups perform on the final examination could be used as an indication of which group
­outperforms the other.
The benefit of conducting a true experimental study is that a random assignment process
creates treatment and control groups that have the greatest chance of being equivalent in
all respects, except for the group assignment. By determining the group assignment based
only on chance, this makes it less likely that any factors other than the group assignment
are having an impact on the outcome of interest (which for our example is the score received
on the final examination). However, one major problem with conducting an experimental
study is that there could be instances where it may be difficult or even impossible to assign
participants to treatment and control groups by using only a random assignment process.
Random assignments are not always feasible, practical, or ethical.
6 Applied Statistical Inference with MINITAB®

For observational studies, data is collected by observation and subjects are not assigned
by a random assignment process or in any other prescribed manner. For example, we
could conduct an observational study to see if students from the computer statistics class
­performed better on the final examination as compared to those from the noncomputer
statistics class by simply collecting data from two existing groups of students—one group
who self-selected themselves to enroll in the computer statistics course and another group
who self-selected themselves to enroll in the noncomputer statistics course.
Although it is usually much easier and often less expensive to collect observational data
as compared to experimental data, observational studies are often plagued with selection
bias. In other words, because students self-selected into either of these two types of courses,
any findings regarding the effectiveness of the use of computers on student performance
may be biased because of the possible differences between the two groups.
Now that we have discussed some of the typical ways that data can be collected, we will
describe in more detail some of the different types and scales of data that we can expect
to find.

1.8 Types of Variables
Before we can start to analyze data in a meaningful way, it is important to understand
that there are many different types of variables that we are likely to encounter. One way
to ­distinguish between the different types of variables is to consider whether ­additional
observations can exist between any two values of a variable. We will begin by first
­describing two general types of variables—discrete and continuous.
We say that a variable is discrete if, between any two successive values of the variable,
other values cannot exist within the context they are being used. Discrete variables can
often be used to represent different categories.

Example 1.1
Suppose we code students at a university as either Part-Time = 0 or Full-Time =
1. This variable is a discrete variable because between the values of 0 and 1 there
cannot exist any other values that have meaning within the context they are
being used. Often ­discrete variables are coded using numbers, but it is impor-
tant to keep in mind that these numbers do not have any numerical properties
associated with them because you cannot add, subtract, multiply, or divide such
numbers within the context that they are being used.

Example 1.2
Consider three different categories of temperature, coded as follows:

Cold = 0 Warm = 1 Hot = 2

This variable would be a discrete variable even though another possible observa-
tion could exist (namely Warm = 1) between the categories of 0 and 2. In order to
be a discrete variable, there cannot be observations that exist between any two
successive values of the variable, such as between the categories coded as 1 and 2.
Introduction 7

Example 1.3
A variable that is quantitative can also be discrete. For example, the number of
students in a classroom is discrete because between any two successive values
of the variable, other values cannot exist. In other words, we cannot have a frac-
tion of a student.
On the other hand, a variable is continuous if between any pair of observations,
other values can theoretically exist.

Example 1.4
Consider two observations of the heights for two different individuals. If
one individual is 5′11″ and the other individual is 5′6″, then we could observe
another individual whose height lies somewhere between these two values,
such as 5′8″. Similarly, if we observe one individual with a height of 5′6″ and
another individual with a height of 5′7″, we could (at least theoretically) observe
an individual whose height lies somewhere in between these two values.

1.9 Scales of Variables
There are four different scales of variables that can be used to describe the type of
information that a variable contains. These scales can also be used to further describe the
mathematical properties of the variable. The different scales of variables are described as
nominal, ordinal, interval, or ratio.
The weakest scale represents variables that have no mathematical properties at all.
Nominal scale or nominal variables are variables that are mathematically the weakest because
the values of a nominal variable only represent different categories, and therefore, they
cannot be manipulated using basic arithmetic.

Example 1.5
Suppose we consider three different categories of temperature as described in
Example 1.2:

Cold = 0 Warm = 1 Hot = 2

This variable is a nominal variable because it describes the different categories

of ­temperature and there are no mathematical properties that can be associated
with the values of this variable. For instance, if we take any two observations,
such as Cold = 0 and Warm = 1 and if we add them together, 0 + 1 = 1, this sum
does not make sense within the context that these variables are being used.
Furthermore, neither multiplication nor division makes any sense within the
context that these variables are being used.

The second weakest scale of a variable is called an ordinal scale or an ordinal variable. An
ordinal variable can be grouped into separate categories, but ordinal variables are different
8 Applied Statistical Inference with MINITAB®

from nominal variables in that there is a natural ordering of the categories. Other than the
ordering of the categories, ordinal variables are similar to nominal v ­ ariables in that they
are categorical variables with no numerical properties.

Example 1.6
Suppose we are looking at the four different ways in which undergraduates are
t­ ypically classified:

1 = freshman 2 = sophomore 3 = junior 4 = senior

Note that there is a natural ordering among the different categories since 1 =
­freshman can be seen as “less than” 2 = sophomore. Thus, the inequality 1 < 2
makes sense within the context that this variable is being used. However, there
are no mathematical p ­ roperties that are associated with these categories. If we
add two values that represent any two of these categories, their sum or differ-
ence does not have any meaning within the context they are being used, and
this also holds true for multiplication and division.
Another scale for variables is called an interval scale or an interval variable.
With ­interval variables, equal distances between observations represent equal-
sized intervals.

Example 1.7
Consider the variable that describes the elevation of where you live. In other
words, how far you live with respect to sea level. This variable would be an
interval variable because the measure of distance between two individuals who
live 70 and 60 feet above sea level would represent the same-sized interval for
two individuals who live 5 and 15 feet above sea level. In other words, a 10-foot
difference has the same meaning, no matter where you live. Another example
is the temperature in degrees Fahrenheit. If it is 40° on one day and 60° on
another day, this 20° difference is the same no matter what temperatures we are
measuring, such as the difference between 30° and 10°. We can add and sub-
tract interval data, and we can measure and quantify such sums or differences
within the context that the data are being used.
Another scale of a variable is where the value of “0” indicates the absence of
the ­quantity of interest. This type of variable is called a ratio scale or a ratio vari-
able. In other words, with ratio variables, quotients or ratios can be formed that
have meaning within the context that they are being used because the value of
“0” represents the absence of the quantity of interest.

Example 1.8
Consider the amount of money that two people have in their pockets. If one per-
son has $100 and the other person has $200, then the ratio of the two amounts
of money has meaning because $200 is twice as much as $100. Also, the value of
$0 indicates having no money and so $0 represents the absence of the quantity
of interest.
All ratio variables have the properties of interval variables, but not all inter-
val ­variables will have the properties of ratio variables. For example, consider
Introduction 9

TABLE 1.3
Mathematical Properties of Nominal, Ordinal, Interval, and Ratio Variables
Scale of Variable Mathematical Properties
Nominal None
Ordinal Inequalities
Interval Addition and subtraction
Ratio Addition, subtraction, multiplication, division

temperature in degrees Fahrenheit. If it is 84° Fahrenheit on one day and 42°

Fahrenheit on another day, it does not make sense to say that 84° is twice as hot
as 42° even though we can form the quotient 84/42 = 2. Furthermore, the value of
0° on the Fahrenheit scale does not r­ epresent the absence of temperature because
it is still a temperature, just a very cold one!
Table 1.3 illustrates the four different scales of variables based on the math-
ematical properties that were described.

1.10 Types of Analyses
There are many types of analyses that we can use to make inferences to a larger popula-
tion of interest by using available data obtained from a sample. Each of these analyses can
be used in their own unique way by using sample data to describe some characteristic of a
population or to assess the relationships amongst a set of variables in a population. When
to use which method or technique often depends on the type of study that is being done
and the type of data that can be collected.
We will now describe the general idea behind basic statistical inference, regression analysis,
and analysis of variance (ANOVA). These analyses use sample data to make inferences or
predictions to a larger population.
Basic statistical inference consists of various statistical methods and techniques that can be
used to make an inference or prediction about some population parameter or parameters
of interest by using information obtained from a sample. For instance, suppose we want
to determine whether a weight loss program is effective in helping people to lose weight.
We could get a sample of program participants and measure their weight before and after
participating in the program and use this sample data to see if the average weight loss is
significant for the entire population of program participants. Chapters 4 and 5 describe
many different statistical methods that are often used to make inferences to population
averages, population proportions, population variation, and population counts.
Regression analysis is an inferential technique that consists of using sample data to
develop and validate a population model by describing how one variable is related to
another variable or to a collection of different variables. For instance, the asking price
of a house is often determined by many different factors, such as the square footage, lot
size, number of bedrooms, number of bathrooms, and age. A regression analysis would
allow you to develop a population model that describes how the price of a house is related
to these factors using data collected from only a sample of houses. Regression analysis
uses sample data to develop a model to predict the asking price for the population of all
10 Applied Statistical Inference with MINITAB®

houses based on the different factors as mentioned earlier. A regression analysis will also
allow you to use such a model for estimation and prediction and there are techniques
that can assess how well the model fits the data. We will be covering regression analysis
in Chapters 6–9.
Analysis of variance (often abbreviated as ANOVA) is an inferential technique that can be
used to estimate whether there are differences in averages between more than two groups
based on some characteristic. For example, suppose you are interested in determining
whether there is a difference in the number of pages you can print with four different
brands of printer toner. One way to assess this could be to set up an experiment where
you have four identical brands of printers and a total of 16 printer cartridges (4 printer car-
tridges for each brand). Then you could put the printer cartridges in each of the ­different
printers and count up the total number of pages that each printer printed with the given
cartridge. An ANOVA could then be used to see if there is a difference in the average num-
ber of pages printed based on the different brands of printer cartridges. The sample would
be the 16 printer cartridges (4 of each brand), and the inference would be made to the
population of all printer cartridges of the four different brands. Thus, by using a sample of
4 printer cartridges from each brand, we could generalize whether there is a ­difference in
the number of pages printed between the four different brands.

1.11 Entering Data into Minitab

Minitab is a statistical software program that can simplify the analysis of a set of data. One
very nice feature of Minitab is that data can easily be entered in the form of a worksheet.
Minitab is easy to use and has some very powerful features that will be described in detail
throughout this book.

FIGURE 1.2
Minitab session and worksheet window.
Exploring the Variety of Random
Documents with Different Content
But they spent their leisure time together: they passed their rare
holiday hours in each other’s society in the woods which they both
loved or in the public galleries of art; and when the autumn came on
apace, and they could no longer sit at their open casements, he still
watched the gleam of her pale lamp as a pilgrim the light of a shrine,
and she, ere she went to her rest, would push ajar the closed shutter
and put her pretty fair head into the darkling night, and waft him a
gentle good-night, and then go and kneel down by her bed and pray
for him and his future before the cross which had been her dead
mother’s.
On that bright summer a hard winter followed. The poor suffered very
much; and I in the closed lattice knew scarcely which was the worse
—the icy, shivering chills of the snow-burdened air, or the close,
noxious suffocation of the stove.
I was very sickly and ill, and cared little for my life during that bitter
cold weather, when the panes of the lattice were all blocked from
week’s end to week’s end with the solid, silvery foliage of the frost.
René and Lili both suffered greatly: he could only keep warmth in his
veins by the stoves of the public libraries, and she lost her work in
the box trade after the New Year fairs, and had to eke out as best
she might the few francs she had been able to lay back in the old
brown pipkin in the closet. She had, moreover, to sell most of the
little things in her garret; her own mattress went, though she kept the
bed under her grandmother. But there were two things she would not
sell, though for both was she offered money; they were her mother’s
reliques and myself.
She would not, I am sure, have sold the picture, either. But for that
no one offered her a centime.
One day, as the last of the winter solstice was passing away, the old
woman died.
Lili wept for her sincere and tender tears, though never in my time,
nor in any other, I believe, had the poor old querulous, paralytic
sufferer rewarded her with anything except lamentation and peevish
discontent.
“Now you will come to me?” murmured her lover, when they had
returned from laying the old dead peasant in the quarter of the poor.
Lili drooped her head softly upon his breast.
“If you wish it!” she whispered, with a whisper as soft as the first low
breath of summer.
If he wished it!
A gleam of pale gold sunshine shone through the dulled panes upon
my feeble branches; a little timid fly crept out and spread its wings;
the bells of the church rang an angelus; a child laughed in the street
below; there came a smile of greenness spreading over the boughs
of leafless trees; my lover, the wind, returned from the south, fresh
from desert and ocean, with the scent of the spice groves and palm
aisles of the East in his breath, and, softly unclosing my lattice,
murmured to me: “Didst thou think I was faithless? See, I come with
the spring!”
So, though I was captive and they two were poor, yet we three were
all happy; for love and a new year of promise were with us.
I bore a little snowy blossom (sister to the one which slept lifeless on
René’s heart) that spring, whilst yet the swallows were not back from
the African gardens, and the first violets were carried in millions
through the streets—the only innocent imperialists that the world has
ever seen.
That little winter-begotten darling of mine was to be Lili’s nuptial-
flower. She took it so tenderly from me that it hardly seemed like its
death.
“My little dear rose, who blossoms for me, though I can only cage
her in clay, and only let her see the sun’s rays between the stacks of
the chimneys!” she said softly over me as she kissed me; and when
she said that, could I any more grieve for Provence?
“What do they wed upon, those two?” said the old vine to me.
And I answered him, “Hope and dreams.”
“Will those bake bread and feed babes?” said the vine, as he shook
his wrinkled tendrils despondently in the March air.
We did not ask in the attic.
Summer was nigh at hand, and we loved one another.
René had come to us—we had not gone to him. For our garret was
on the sunny, his on the dark, side of the street, and Lili feared the
gloom for me and the bird; and she could not bring herself to leave
that old red-leaved creeper who had wound himself so close about
the rainpipe and the roof, and who could not have been dislodged
without being slain.
With the Mardi Gras her trade had returned to her. René, unable to
prosecute his grand works, took many of the little boxes in his own
hands, and wrought on them with all the nameless mystical charm
and the exquisite grace of touch which belong to the man who is by
nature a great artist. The little trade could not at its best price bring
much, but it brought bread; and we were happy.
While he worked at the box lids she had leisure for her household
labors; when these were done she would draw out her mother’s old
Breton distaff, and would sit and spin. When twilight fell they would
go forth together to dream under the dewy avenues and the
glistening stars, or as often would wait within whilst he played on his
mountain flute to the people at the doorways in the street below.
“Is it better to go out and see the stars and the leaves ourselves, or
to stay indoors and make all these forget the misfortune of not
seeing them?” said Lili on one of those evenings when the warmth
and the sunset almost allured her to draw the flute from her
husband’s hands and give him his hat instead; and then she looked
down into the narrow road, at the opposite houses, at the sewing-
girls stitching by their little windows, at the pale students studying
their sickly lore with scalpel and with skeleton, at the hot, dusty little
children at play on the asphalt sidewalk, at the sorrowful, darkened
casements behind which she knew beds of sickness or of paralyzed
old age were hidden—looked at all this from behind my blossoms,
and then gave up the open air and the evening stroll that were so
dear a pastime to her, and whispered to René, “Play, or they will be
disappointed.”
And he played, instead of going to the debating-club in the room
round the corner.
“He has ceased to be a patriot,” grumbled the old vine. “It is always
so with every man when once he has loved a woman!”
Myself, I could not see that there was less patriotism in breathing the
poetry of sound into the ears of his neighbors than in rousing the
passions of hell in the breasts of his brethren.
But perhaps this was my ignorance: I believe that of late years
people have grown to hold that the only pure patriotism is, and ought
to be, evinced in the most intense and the most brutalized form of
one passion,—“Envy, eldest-born of hell.”
So these two did some good, and were happy, though more than
once it chanced to them to have to go a whole day without tasting
food of any sort.
I have said that René had genius,—a genius bold, true,
impassioned, masterful,—such a genius as colors the smallest trifles
that it touches. René could no more help putting an ideal grace into
those little sweetmeat boxes—which sold at their very highest, in the
booths of the fairs, at fifty centimes apiece—than we, the roses, can
help being fragrant and fair.
Genius has a way of casting its pearls in the dust as we scatter our
fragrance to every breeze that blows. Now and then the pearl is
caught and treasured, as now and then some solitary creature
pauses to smell the sweetness of the air in which we grow, and
thanks the God who made us.
But as ninety-nine roses bloom unthanked for one that is thus
remembered, so ninety-nine of the pearls of genius are trodden to
pieces for one that is set on high and crowned with honor.
In the twilight of a dull day a little, feeble, brown old man climbed the
staircase and entered our attic with shambling step.
We had no strangers to visit us: who visits the poor? We thought he
was an enemy: the poor always do think so, being so little used to
strangers.
René drew himself erect, and strove to hide the poverty of his
garments, standing by his easel. Lili came to me and played with my
leaves in her tender, caressing fashion.
“You painted this, M. René Claude?” asked the little brown old man.
He held in his hand one of the bonbon boxes, the prettiest of them
all, with a tambourine-girl dancing in a wreath of Provence roses.
René had copied me with loving fidelity in the flowers, and with a
sigh had murmured as he cast the box aside when finished: “That
ought to fetch at least a franc!” But he got no more than the usual
two sous for it.
The little man sat down on the chair which Lili placed for him.
“So they told me where I bought this. It was at a booth at St. Cloud.
Do you know that it is charming?”
René smiled a little sadly; Lili flushed with joy. It was the first praise
which she had ever heard given to him.
“You have a great talent,” pursued the little man.
René bowed his handsome, haggard face—his mouth quivered a
very little: for the first time Hope entered into him.
“Genius, indeed,” said the stranger; and he sauntered a little about
and looked at the canvases, and wondered and praised, and said
not very much, but said that little so well and so judiciously that it
was easy to see he was no mean judge of art, and possibly no
slender patron of it.
As Lili stood by me I saw her color come and go and her breast
heave. I too trembled in all my leaves: were recognition and the
world’s homage coming to René at last?
“And I have been so afraid always that I had injured, burdened him,
clogged his strength in that endless strife!” she murmured below her
breath. “O dear little rose! if only the world can but know his
greatness!”
Meanwhile the old man looked through the sketches and studies with
which the room was strewed. “You do not finish your things?” he said
abruptly.
René flushed darkly. “Oil pictures cost money,” he said briefly, “and—
I am very poor.”
Though a peasant’s son, he was very proud: the utterance must
have cost him much.
The stranger took snuff. “You are a man of singular genius,” he said
simply. “You only want to be known to get the prices of Meissonier.”
Meissonier!—the Rothschild of the studios, the artist whose six-inch
canvas would bring the gold value of a Raphael or a Titian!
Lili, breathing fast, and white as death with ecstasy, made the sign of
the cross on her breast; the delicate brown hand of René shook
where it leaned on his easel.
They were both silent—silent from the intensity of their hope.
“Do you know who I am?” the old man pursued with a cordial smile.
“I have not that honor,” murmured René.
The stranger, taking his snuff out of a gold box, named a name at
which the painter started. It was that of one of the greatest art
dealers in the whole of Europe,—one who at a word could make or
mar an artist’s reputation,—one whose accuracy of judgment was
considered infallible by all connoisseurs, and the passport to whose
galleries was to any unknown painting a certain passport also to the
fame of men.
“You are a man of singular genius,” repeated the great purchaser,
taking his snuff in the middle of the little bare chamber. “It is curious
—one always finds genius either in a cellar or in an attic: it never, by
any chance, is to be discovered midway on the stairs—never in the
mezzo terzo! But to the point. You have great delicacy of touch,
striking originality, a wonderful purity yet bloom in your color, and an
exquisite finish of minutiæ, without any weakness,—a combination
rare, very rare. That girl yonder, feeding white pigeons on the leads
of a roof, with an atom of blue sky, and a few vine leaves straying
over the parapet—that is perfectly conceived. Finished it must be. So
must that little study of the beggar-boy looking through the gilded
gates into the rose-gardens—it is charming, charming. Your price for
those?”
René’s colorless, worn young face colored to the brows. “Monsieur is
too good,” he muttered brokenly. “A nameless artist has no price,
except—”
“Honor,” murmured Lili as she moved forward with throbbing heart
and dim eyes. “Ah, monsieur, give him a name in Paris! We want
nothing else—nothing else!”
“Poor fools!” said the dealer to his snuff-box. I heard him—they did
not.
“Madame,” he answered aloud, “Paris herself will give him that the
first day his first canvas hangs in my galleries. Meanwhile, I must in
honesty be permitted to add something more. For each of those little
canvases, the girl on the roof and the boy at the gate, I will give you
now two thousand francs, and two thousand more when they shall
be completed. Provided—”
He paused and glanced musingly at René.
Lili had turned away, and was sobbing for very joy at this
undreamed-of deliverance.
René stood quite still, with his hands crossed on the easel and his
head bent on his chest. The room, I think, swam around him.
The old man sauntered again a little about the place, looking here
and looking there, murmuring certain artistic disquisitions technical
and scientific, leaving them time to recover from the intensity of their
emotion.
What a noble thing old age was, I thought, living only to give hope to
the young in their sorrow, and to release captive talents from the
prison of obscurity! We should leave the little room in the roof, and
dwell in some bright quarter where it was all leaves and flowers; and
René would be great, and go to dine with princes and drive a team of
belled horses, like a famous painter who had dashed once with his
splendid equipage through our narrow passage; and we should see
the sky always—as much of it as ever we chose; and Lili would have
a garden of her own, all grass and foliage and falling waters, in
which I should live in the open air all the day long, and make believe
that I was in Provence.
My dreams and my fancies were broken by the sound of the old
man’s voice taking up the thread of his discourse once more in front
of René.
“I will give you four thousand francs each for those two little
canvases,” he repeated. “It is a mere pinch of dust to what you will
make in six months’ time if—if—you hear me?—your name is
brought before the public of Paris in my galleries and under my
auspices. I suppose you have heard something of what I can do, eh?
Well, all I can do I will do for you; for you have a great talent, and
without introduction, my friend, you may as well roll up your pictures
and burn them in your stove to save charcoal. You know that?”
René indeed knew—none better. Lili turned on the old man her
sweet, frank Breton eyes, smiling their radiant gratitude through
tenderest tears.
“The saints will reward you, monsieur, in a better world than this,”
she murmured softly.
The old man took snuff a little nervously. “There is one condition I
must make,” he said with a trifling hesitation—“one only.”
“Ask of my gratitude what you will,” answered René quickly, while he
drew a deep breath of relief and freedom,—the breath of one who
casts to the ground the weight of a deadly burden.
“It is, that you will bind yourself only to paint for me.”
“Certainly!” René gave the assent with eagerness. Poor fellow! it was
a novelty so exquisite to have any one save the rats to paint for. It
had never dawned upon his thoughts that when he stretched his
hands out with such passionate desire to touch the hem of the
garment of Fortune and catch the gleam of the laurels of Fame, he
might be in truth only holding them out to fresh fetters.
“Very well,” said the old man quietly, and he sat down again and
looked full in René’s face, and unfolded his views for the artist’s
future.
He used many words, and was slow and suave in their utterance,
and paused often and long to take out his heavy gold box; but he
spoke well. Little by little his meaning gleamed out from the folds of
verbiage in which he skilfully enwrapped it.
It was this.
The little valueless drawings on the people’s sweetmeat boxes of
gilded cardboard had a grace, a color, and a beauty in them which
had caught, at a fair-booth in the village of St. Cloud, the ever-
watchful eyes of the great dealer. He had bought half a dozen of the
boxes for a couple of francs. He had said, “Here is what I want.”
Wanted for what? Briefly, to produce Petitot enamels and Fragonard
cabinets—genuine eighteenth-century work. There was a rage for it.
René would understand?
René’s dark southern eyes lost a little of their new lustre of
happiness, and grew troubled with a sort of cloud of perplexity. He
did not seem to understand.
The old man took more snuff, and used phrases clearer still.
There were great collectors—dilettanti of houses imperial and royal
and princely and noble, of all the grades of greatness—who would
give any sum for bonbonnières and tabatières of eighteenth-century
work by any one of the few famous masters of that time. A genuine,
incontestable sweetmeat box from the ateliers of the Louis XIV. or
Louis XV. period would fetch almost a fabulous sum. Then again he
paused, doubtfully.
René bowed, and his wondering glance said without words, “I know
this. But I have no eighteenth-century work to sell you: if I had,
should we starve in an attic?”
His patron coughed a little, looked at Lili, then proceeded to explain
yet further.
In René’s talent he had discerned the hues, the grace, the delicacy
yet brilliancy, the voluptuousness and the désinvolteure of the best
eighteenth-century work. René doubtless did other and higher things
which pleased himself far more than these airy trifles. Well, let him
pursue the greater line of art if he chose; but he, the old man who
spoke, could assure him that nothing would be so lucrative to him as
those bacchantes in wreaths of roses and young tambourine-players
gorge au vent dancing in a bed of violets, and beautiful marquises,
powdered and jewelled, looking over their fans, which he had
painted for those poor little two-sous boxes of the populace, and the
like of which, exquisitely finished on enamel or ivory, set in gold and
tortoise-shell rimmed with pearls and turquoises or opals and
diamonds, would deceive the finest connoisseur in Europe into
receiving them as—whatever they might be signed and dated.
If René would do one or two of these at dictation in a year, not more,
—more would be perilous,—paint and sign them and produce them
with any touches that might be commanded; never ask what became
of them when finished, nor recognize them if hereafter he might see
them in any illustrious collection—if René would bind himself to do
this, he, the old man who spoke, would buy his other paintings, place
them well in his famous galleries, and, using all his influence, would
make him in a twelvemonth’s time the most celebrated of all the
young painters of Paris.
It was a bargain? Ah, how well it was, he said, to put the best of
one’s powers into the most trifling things one did! If that poor little
two-sous box had been less lavishly and gracefully decorated, it
would never have arrested his eyes in the bonbon-booth at St.
Cloud. The old man paused to take snuff and receive an answer.
René stood motionless.
Lili had sunk into a seat, and was gazing at the tempter with wide-
open, puzzled, startled eyes. Both were silent.
“It is a bargain?” said the old man again. “Understand me, M. René
Claude. You have no risk, absolutely none, and you have the
certainty of fair fame and fine fortune in the space of a few years.
You will be a great man before you have a gray hair: that comes to
very few. I shall not trouble you for more than two dix-huitième siècle
enamels in the year—perhaps for only one. You can spend ten
months out of the twelve on your own canvases, making your own
name and your own wealth as swiftly as your ambition and
impatience can desire. Madame here,” said the acute dealer with a
pleasant smile—“Madame here can have a garden sloping on the
Seine and a glass house of choicest flowers—which I see are her
graceful weakness—ere another rose-season has time to come
round, if you choose.”
His voice lingered softly on the three last words.
The dew stood on René’s forehead, his hands clenched on the
easel.
“You wish me—to—paint—forgeries of the Petitot enamels?”
The old man smiled unmoved: “Chut, chut! Will you paint me little
bonbonnières on enamel instead of on cardboard? That is all the
question. I have said where they go, how they are set: what they are
called shall be my affair. You know nothing. The only works of yours
which you will be concerned to acknowledge will be your own canvas
pictures. What harm can it do any creature? You will gratify a
connoisseur or two innocently, and you will meanwhile be at leisure
to follow the bent of your own genius, which otherwise—”
He paused: I heard the loud throbs of René’s heart under that cruel
temptation.
Lili gazed at his tempter with the same startled terror and
bewilderment still dilating her candid eyes with a woful pain.
“Otherwise,” pursued the old man with merciless tranquillity, “you will
never see me any more, my friends. If you try to repeat any story to
my hindrance, no one will credit you. I am rich, you are poor. You
have a great talent: I shall regret to see it lost, but I shall let it die—
so.”
And he trod very gently on a little gnat that crawled near his foot, and
killed it.
A terrible agony gathered in the artist’s face.
“O God!” he cried in his torture, and his eyes went to the canvases
against the wall, and then to the face of his wife, with an unutterable,
yearning desire.
For them, for them, this sin which tempted him looked virtue.
“Do you hesitate?” said the merciless old man. “Pshaw! whom do
you hurt? You give me work as good as that which you imitate, and I
call it only by a dead man’s name: who is injured? What harm can
there be in humoring the fanaticism of fashion? Choose—I am in
haste.”
René hid his face with his hands, so that he should not behold those
dear creations of his genius which so cruelly, so innocently, assailed
him with a temptation beyond his strength.
“Choose for me—you!” he muttered in his agony to Lili.
Lili, white as death, drew closer to him.
“My René, your heart has chosen,” she murmured through her dry,
quivering lips. “You cannot buy honor by fraud.”
René lifted his head and looked straight in the eyes of the man who
held the scales of his fate, and could weigh out for his whole life’s
portion either fame and fortune, or obscurity and famine.
“Sir,” he said slowly, with a bitter, tranquil smile about his mouth, “my
garret is empty, but it is clean. May I trouble you to leave it as you
found it?”
So they were strong to the end, these two famished children of
frivolous Paris.
But when the door had closed and shut their tempter out, the
revulsion came: they wept those tears of blood which come from the
hearts’ depths of those who have seen Hope mock them with a smile
a moment, to leave them face to face with Death.
“Poor fools!” sighed the old vine from his corner in the gray, dull
twilight of the late autumn day.
Was the vine right?
The air which he had breathed for fifty years through all his dust-
choked leaves and tendrils had been the air off millions of human
lungs, corrupted in its passage through millions of human lips; and
the thoughts which he thought were those of human wisdom:
The sad day died; the night fell; the lattice was closed; the flute lay
untouched. A great misery seemed to enfold us. True, we were no
worse off than we had been when the same day dawned. But that is
the especial cruelty of every tempter always: he touches the
innocent, closed eyes of his victims with a collyrium which makes the
happy blindness of content no longer possible. If strong to resist him,
he has still his vengeance, for they are never again at peace as they
were before that fatal hour in which he showed them all that they
were not, all that they might be.
Our stove was not more chill, our garret not more empty; our
darkness not more dark amidst the gay, glad, dazzling city; our
dusky roof and looming crown that shut the sky out from us not more
gloomy and impenetrable than they had been on all those other
earlier nights when yet we had been happy. Yet how intensified
million-fold seemed cold and loneliness and poverty and darkness,
all!—for we had for the first time known what it was to think of riches,
of fame, of homage, of light, as possible, and then to lose them all
forever!
I had been resigned for love’s sake to dwell amongst the roofs,
seeing not the faces of the stars, nor feeling ever the full glory of the
sun; but now—I had dreamed of the fair freedom of garden-ways
and the endless light of summer suns on palace terraces, and I
drooped and shivered and sickened, and was twice captive and
twice exiled, and knew that I was a little nameless, worthless,
hapless thing, whose fairest chaplet of blossom no hand would ever
gather for a crown.
As with my life, so was it likewise with theirs.
They had been so poor, but they had been so happy: the poverty
remained, the joy had flown.
The winter was again very hard, very cold: they suffered greatly.
They could scarcely keep together body and soul, as your strange
phrase runs; they went without food sometimes for days and days,
and fuel they had scarcely ever.
The bird in his cage was sold; they would not keep the little golden
singing thing to starve to silence like themselves.
As for me, I nearly perished of the cold; only the love I bore to Lili
kept a little life in my leafless branches.
All that cruel winter-time they were strong still, those children of
Paris.
For they sought no alms, and in their uttermost extremity neither of
them ever whispered to the other: “Go seek the tempter; repent, be
wise. Give not up our lives for a mere phantasy of honor.”
“When the snow is on the ground, and the canvases have to burn in
the stove, then you will change your minds and come to me on your
knees,” the old wicked, foul spirit had said mocking them, as he had
opened the door of the attic and passed away creaking down the
dark stairs.
And I suppose he had reckoned on this; but if he had done so, he
had reckoned without his host, as your phrase runs: neither René
nor Lili ever went to him, either on knees or in any other wise.
When the spring came we three were still all living—at least their
hearts still beat and their lips still drew breath, as my boughs were
still green and my roots still clung to the soil. But no more to them or
to me did the coming of spring bring, as of old, the real living of life,
which is joy. And my lover the wind wooed me no more, and the
birds no more brought me the rose-whispers of my kindred in
Provence. For even the little pigeon-hole in the roof had become too
costly a home for us, and we dwelt in a den under the stones of the
streets, where no light came and scarce a breath of air ever strayed
to us.
There the uncompleted canvases, on which the painter whom Lili
loved had tried to write his title to the immortality of fame, were at
last finished—finished, for the rats ate them.
All this while we lived—the man whose genius and misery were hell
on earth; the woman whose very purity and perfectness of love were
her direst torture; and I, the little white flower born of the sun and the
dew, of fragrance and freedom, to whom every moment of this
blindness, this suffocation, this starvation, this stench of putrid odors,
this horrible roar of the street above, was a moment worse than any
pang of death.
Away there in Provence so many a fair rose-sister of mine bowed
her glad, proud, innocent head with anguish and shuddering terrors
to the sharp summons of the severing knife that cut in twain her life,
whilst I—I, on and on—was forced to keep so much of life as lies in
the capacity to suffer and to love in vain.
So much was left to them: no more.
“Let us compel Death to remember us, since even Death forgets us!”
René murmured once in his despair to her.
But Lili had pressed her famished lips to his: “Nay, dear, wait; God
will remember us even yet, I think.”
It was her faith. And of her faith she was justified at last.
There came a ghastlier season yet, a time of horror insupportable—
of ceaseless sound beside which the roar of the mere traffic of the
streets would have seemed silence—a stench beside which the
sulphur smoke and the gas fumes of a previous time would have
been as some sweet, fresh woodland air—a famine beside which the
daily hunger of the poor was remembered as the abundance of a
feast—a cold beside which the chillness of the scant fuel and empty
braziers of other winters were recalled as the warmth of summer—a
darkness only lit by the red flame of burning houses—a solitude only
broken by the companionship of woe and sickness and despair—a
suffocation only changed by a rush of air strong with the scent of
blood, of putridity, of the million living plague-stricken, of the million
dead lying unburied.
For there was war.
Of year or day or hour I knew nothing. It was always the same
blackness as of night; the same horror of sound, of scent, of cold;
the same misery; the same torture. I suppose that the sun was
quenched, that the birds were dumb, that the winds were stilled
forever—that all the world was dead; I do not know. They called it
War. I suppose that they meant—Hell!
Yet Lili lived, and I; in that dead darkness we had lost René—we saw
his face no more. Yet he could not be in his grave, I knew, for Lili,
clasping my barren branches to her breast, would murmur: “Whilst
he still lives I will live—yes, yes, yes!”
And she did live—so long, so long!—on a few draughts of water and
a few husks of grain.
I knew that it was long, for full a hundred times she muttered aloud:
“Another day? O God!—how long? how long?”
At last in the darkness a human hand was stretched to her, once,
close beside me. A foul, fierce light, the light of flame, was
somewhere on the air about us, and that moment glowed through
the horrid gloom we dwelt in in the bowels of the earth. I saw the
hand and what it held to her; it was a stranger’s, and it held the little
colorless dead rose, my sweetest blossom, that had lain ever upon
René’s heart.
She took it—she who had given it as her first love-gift. She was
mute. In the glare of the flame that quivered through the darkness I
saw her—standing quite erect and very still.
The voice of a stranger thrilled through the din from the world above.
“He fought as only patriots can,” it said softly and as through tears. “I
was beside him. He fell with Regnault in the sortie yesterday. He
could not speak; he had only strength to give me this for you. Be
comforted; he has died for Paris.”
On Lili’s face there came once more the radiance of a perfect peace,
a glory pure and endless as the glory of the sun. “Great in death!”
she murmured. “My love, my love, I come!”
I lost her in the darkness.
I heard a voice above me say that life had left her lips as the dead
rose touched them.
What more is there for me to tell?
I live, since to breathe, and to feel pain, and to desire vainly, and to
suffer always, are surest proofs of life.
I live, since that stranger’s hand, which brought my little dead
blossom as the message of farewell, had pity on me and brought me
away from that living grave. But the pity was vain; I died the only
death that had any power to hurt me when the human heart I loved
grew still forever.
The light of the full day now shines on me; the shadows are cool, the
dews are welcome; they speak around me of the coming of spring,
and in the silence of the dawns I hear from the woods without the
piping of the nesting birds; but for me the summer can never more
return—for me the sun can never again be shining—for me the
greenest garden world is barren as a desert.
For I am only a little rose, but I am in exile and France is desolate.
 COSY CORNER SERIES.

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