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5th UNIT
Probability Reasoning
Topic-1: Acting Under Uncertainty

1. Handling Uncertainty in Agents

Complexity in Belief State: If an agent sees something blurry, it must consider all
possible things it could be, which makes thinking too complicated.

Example: Seeing a shadow and considering it could be a cat, a dog, or a tree branch.

2. Drawbacks of Contingency Plans: Making a plan for every possible event, no matter
how unlikely, makes the plan too big and impractical.

Example: Planning for both a rainstorm and a meteorite hitting your car on the way to
the airport.

3. Uncertainty in Plan Success: Sometimes, no plan is perfect, so the agent must choose
the best option among uncertain ones.

Example: Deciding to leave for the airport early, knowing there's no way to be 100%
sure you’ll be on time because of potential traffic or car issues.

4. Making Rational Decisions Under Uncertainty: Choose the plan that’s most likely
to succeed based on what the agent knows, even if it’s not certain.

Example: Leaving 90 minutes before a flight to avoid missing it, even if there’s a small
chance of unexpected delays.

5. Weighing Goals and Likelihoods: Make the best choice by considering how important
each goal is and how likely it is to be achieved.

Example: Choosing between leaving very early to definitely make the flight but
waiting long at the airport, or leaving with just enough time, risking being late.

1.1 Summarizing uncertainty

Uncertain Reasoning Example: Dental Diagnosis
 Diagnosing a toothache involves uncertainty.
 Using propositional logic for diagnosis is problematic.
Problems with Logical Rules:
1. Incomplete Rules:
a) Rule: Toothache ⇒ Cavity is wrong because toothaches can also be
caused by gum disease, abscesses, etc.

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b) A correct rule would be: Toothache ⇒ Cavity ∨ GumProblem ∨

Abscess ∨ ..., which is impractical due to the long list of possibilities.
2. Causal Rules:
a) Rule: Cavity ⇒ Toothache is also incorrect because not all cavities
cause pain.
b) Complete and exhaustive qualifications are needed, making it impractical.
Reasons Logic Fails in Medical Diagnosis:
1. Laziness: Listing all exceptions and conditions is too much work.
2. Theoretical Ignorance: No complete theory covers all medical conditions.
3. Practical Ignorance: Not all tests can be run or known.
Degrees of Belief and Probability Theory:
 Logic: Beliefs are true, false, or unknown.
 Probability: Beliefs have degrees between 0 (false) and 1 (true).
Example with Probability:
 Belief with Probability: "There is an 80% chance (probability 0.8) that a patient with
a toothache has a cavity."
o Derived from: Statistical data (80% of toothache patients have cavities) or
general dental knowledge.
 Knowledge State: Probability statements depend on the information available, not
the actual state.
a) Example: "The probability of a cavity given a toothache is 0.8."
b) If additional information (e.g., gum disease history) is available: "The
probability of a cavity given a toothache and gum disease history is 0.4."
Conclusion:
 Probability helps manage uncertainty by quantifying belief based on available
information.
 Each probability statement is specific to a knowledge state and not contradictory.
1.2 Uncertainty and Rational Decisions:
Decision Theory and Utility
Utility Theory: It represents an agent's preferences. Each state has a utility value that reflects
its usefulness to the agent. For example:
 High utility: White wins in chess.
 Low utility: Black loses in chess.

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Decision Theory: Combines utility theory and probability theory to make rational choices.
An agent is rational if it chooses the action with the highest expected utility. This is called the
principle of Maximum Expected Utility (MEU).
Examples of Plans to the Airport
1. A90 Plan: Leaves 90 minutes before the flight with a 97% chance of catching the
flight.
o Utility: High chance of catching the flight but shorter wait at the airport.
2. A180 Plan: Leaves 180 minutes before the flight with a higher chance of catching the
flight.
o Utility: Higher chance of catching the flight but longer wait.
3. A1440 Plan: Leaves 24 hours before the flight.
o Utility: Almost certain to catch the flight but involves an intolerable wait.
Key Concepts
 Utility is Relative: Depends on the agent’s preferences.
o Example: A draw in chess might be high utility for an amateur against a world
champion, but low for the world champion.
 Preferences are Subjective: Even quirky preferences can be rational if they align
with the agent's utility.
o Example: Preferring jalapeño bubble-gum ice cream over chocolate chip is a
valid preference.
Principle of Maximum Expected Utility (MEU)
 Expected Utility: The average utility of an action’s outcomes, weighted by their
probabilities.
o Decision: Choose the action with the highest expected utility.
Decision-Theoretic Agent
 Belief State: Represents possible world states and their probabilities.
 Action Selection: Chooses actions based on expected utility from probabilistic
predictions of outcomes.

Algorithm:
Step-1: A decision-theoretic agent that selects rational actions.
Step-2: function DT-AGENT (percept) returns an action
Step-3: persistent: belief state, probabilistic beliefs about the current state of the
world

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Step-4: action, the agent’s action

Step-5: update belief state based on action and percept
Step-6: calculate outcome probabilities for actions,
Step-7: given action descriptions and current belief state
Step-8: select action with highest expected utility
Step-9: given probabilities of outcomes and utility information
Step-10: return action
Algorithm Explanation with Examples
a) Initialize
Explanation: Start by setting up the agent's belief state. The belief state represents the agent's
understanding of the world, including uncertainties.
Example: Suppose our agent is a robot in a grid world trying to find a charging station.
Initially, the robot believes the charging station could be in any of the four corners of the grid
with equal probability (25% each).
b) Perceive and Update
Explanation: The agent receives a new sensory input (percept) and updates its belief state
based on this new information and the last action it took.
Example: The robot moves to a new cell and detects a wall in the north direction. This new
percept helps the robot update its belief state, adjusting the probabilities of where the charging
station might be based on the new information.
c) Calculate Outcome Probabilities
Explanation: For each possible action, the agent calculates the probabilities of different
outcomes occurring based on its current belief state and the descriptions of the actions.
Example: The robot considers moving east or south. It calculates that if it moves east, there is
a 70% chance of reaching an empty cell and a 30% chance of hitting a wall. If it moves south,
there is a 60% chance of reaching an empty cell and a 40% chance of hitting a wall.
d) Expected Utility Calculation
Explanation: Determine the expected utility for each action. Multiply the utility (benefit or
cost) of each possible outcome by its probability and sum these to get the expected utility for
each action.
Example: Assume the robot has a utility function where reaching an empty cell is +10 and
hitting a wall is -10. For moving east:

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 Expected utility = (0.70 * 10) + (0.30 * -10) = 7 - 3 = 4. For moving south:

 Expected utility = (0.60 * 10) + (0.40 * -10) = 6 - 4 = 2.
e) Select Action
Explanation: Choose the action that maximizes the expected utility. Compare the expected
utilities from the previous step and select the action with the highest value.
Example: The robot compares the expected utilities of moving east (4) and moving south (2).
Since moving east has a higher expected utility, the robot chooses to move east.
f) Execute Action
Explanation: Perform the chosen action.
Example: The robot moves east.
g) Return
Explanation: Return the action that was chosen and executed by the agent.
Example: The robot's decision to move east is returned as the chosen action.
Conclusion:
 Initialize: Set up initial probabilistic beliefs (e.g., charging station could be in any
corner).
 Perceive and Update: Use sensory input to update beliefs (e.g., detect a wall).
 Calculate Outcome Probabilities: Assess probabilities for each action (e.g., moving
east or south).
 Expected Utility Calculation: Compute expected utilities based on probabilities and
utilities (e.g., +4 for east, +2 for south).
 Select Action: Pick the action with the highest expected utility (e.g., move east).
 Execute Action: Perform the selected action (e.g., move east).
 Return: Provide the chosen action (e.g., move east)
Conclusion Points:
1. Probabilistic Reasoning: Utilizes probabilities to manage uncertainty caused by
incomplete or unreliable information.
2. Real-World Examples: Situations like predicting weather, assessing reactions, or
predicting sports outcomes illustrate uncertainty in everyday life.
3. AI Application: AI uses probabilistic reasoning for unpredictable outcomes, managing
numerous possibilities, and handling errors during experiments.
4. Bayes' Rule: Updates beliefs based on new evidence, combining prior probabilities with
likelihoods.

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5. Naïve Bayes Classifier: Applies Bayes' Rule assuming independence of features given the
class, simplifying probabilistic calculations.
6. Bayesian Networks: Graphical models depicting variable dependencies, aiding in
probabilistic inference.
7. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC): Algorithm for approximating complex
probability distributions in Bayesian networks.
8. Relational Probability Models: Extend Bayesian networks to handle relational data and
complex relationships.
9. Open Universe Probability Models: Address uncertainties about the existence and
properties of objects in varying scenarios.
10. Handling Uncertain Knowledge: Steps include gathering information, evaluating
reliability, using probabilistic reasoning, making decisions based on expected outcomes,
planning contingencies, and learning from experience.

TOPIC-1 END

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2nd and 3rd TOPICS: Basic Probability Notation

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2nd and 3rd TOPICS: Basic Probability Notation

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2nd and 3rd TOPICS: Basic Probability Notation

1. Probability Notation:
o P(A): Probability of event A occurring.
o P(A'): Probability of event A not occurring.
o P(A ∩ B): Probability of both A and B occurring simultaneously.
o P(A ∪ B): Probability of either A or B occurring.
o P(A ∩ B'): Probability of A occurring but not B.
o P(A' ∪ B): Probability of either A not occurring or B occurring.
2. Conditional Probability:
o P(A | B): Probability of A given that B has occurred.
o Bayes’ Theorem: Allows updating probabilities based on new evidence.
3. Joint Probability:
o Probability of both A and B occurring simultaneously.
4. Marginal Probability:
o Probability of event A occurring regardless of other events.
5. Applications in AI:
o Bayesian Networks: Represent probabilistic relationships using DAGs.
o Hidden Markov Models (HMMs): Model systems with hidden states
influencing observable events.
o Markov Decision Processes (MDPs): Model decision-making under
uncertainty.
o Gaussian Processes (GPs): Used for regression and classification tasks,
incorporating uncertainty in predictions.
o Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs): Encode conditional independence
structures between random variables.
6. Importance:
o Handling Uncertainty: Enables AI to make robust decisions despite
incomplete or noisy data.
o Learning from Data: Bayesian methods and probabilistic models learn from
data to update beliefs.
o Inference: Tools for deducing new information from existing knowledge.
o Decision Making: Support for decision-making under uncertainty in various
applications.

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2nd and 3rd TOPICS: Basic Probability Notation

1. Sample Space and Possible Worlds:

 Probabilistic assertions are about possible worlds, where each world represents
a specific outcome or scenario.
 The set of all possible worlds is called the sample space (Ω).
 Each possible world is denoted by ω, and probabilities (P(ω)) are assigned to
each world, ranging from 0 to 1.
2. Probability Model:
 A fully specified probability model assigns probabilities to each possible world.
 Basic axioms ensure that probabilities range between 0 and 1, and the sum of
probabilities across all possible worlds equals 1.
 For example, when rolling fair dice, each outcome (such as (1,1), (1,2), ..., (6,6))
has an equal probability of 1/36.
3. Events:
 Events in probability theory refer to sets of possible worlds that satisfy certain
conditions or propositions.
 Events are described using formal language propositions and correspond to
subsets of the sample space.
 Probability associated with an event is the sum of probabilities of all possible
worlds in which the event occurs.
4. Conditional Probability:
 Conditional probabilities (P(A | B)) represent the probability of event A
occurring given that event B has occurred.
 The product rule (P(A ∧ B) = P(A | B) * P(B)) describes how to compute joint
probabilities from conditional probabilities.
5. Unconditional and Conditional Probabilities:
 Unconditional probabilities (or priors) are probabilities without any additional
information.
 Conditional probabilities (or posteriors) are probabilities given specific
evidence or conditions.
 Conditional probabilities adjust based on observed evidence, reflecting updated
beliefs or likelihoods.

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2nd and 3rd TOPICS: Basic Probability Notation

6. Decision Making and Inference:

 Probabilistic reasoning supports decision-making under uncertainty by
quantifying degrees of belief.
 Inference involves updating probabilities based on new evidence or
observations.
 Logical implication differs from conditional probability in that the latter
accounts for additional evidence and uncertainty.
Conclusion Points:

6. Mathematical Foundation: It's derived from the definition of conditional probability and
the theorem of total probability, allowing for effective probabilistic inference.
7. Practical Use: By incorporating prior knowledge and updating it with observed data, Bayes'
Theorem facilitates more accurate predictions, enhances decision-making under uncertainty,
and supports evidence-based reasoning.
8. Historical Context: Developed in 1763, Bayes' Theorem has become a cornerstone in
statistical inference and Bayesian reasoning, influencing fields ranging from philosophy to
engineering.
9. Critical Considerations: It requires events to have non-zero probabilities and assumes
independence or conditional independence where applicable.

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2nd and 3rd TOPICS: Basic Probability Notation

10. Educational Value: Understanding Bayes' Theorem equips individuals to analyze and
interpret probabilistic relationships, fostering a deeper understanding of uncertainties in real-
world scenarios.
11. Continued Relevance: Ongoing advancements in data analytics and machine learning
underscore the enduring significance of Bayes' Theorem in extracting meaningful insights from
data.
12. Bayes' Theorem provides a robust framework for updating beliefs and making informed
decisions in the face of uncertain and evolving information.
Extra Information
What is Probabilistic Notation?
Probabilistic notation uses symbols and rules to talk about chances and predictions. It helps
AI make decisions when things are uncertain, like guessing weather or predicting stocks.
Basic Probabilistic Notations:
1. Probability Notation:
o P(A): Probability that event A happens.
o P(A'): Probability that event A doesn’t happen.
o P(A ∩ B): Probability that both A and B happen.
o P(A ∪ B): Probability that either A or B (or both) happen.
Example: If you toss a coin, P(Heads) = 0.5 means there's a 50% chance of getting
heads.
2. Conditional Probability:
o P(A | B): Probability of A happening given that B has already happened.
Example: P(Rain | Cloudy) tells us the chance of rain when it's cloudy.
3. Joint Probability:
o P(A ∩ B): Probability of both A and B happening together.
Example: P(Heads ∩ Tails) = 0 because you can't get both heads and tails at the same
time in one coin toss.
4. Marginal Probability:
o P(A): Probability of A happening, regardless of other events.
Example: P(Sunny) = P(Sunny ∪ Cloudy) tells us the chance of sunny weather,
whether it’s cloudy or not.
Advanced Probabilistic Notations:
1. Random Variables:
o X: Represents an outcome.
6

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2nd and 3rd TOPICS: Basic Probability Notation

o P(X = x): Probability that X is a specific value.

Example: X could be the number you roll on a die. P(X = 4) = 1/6 in a fair six-sided
die.
2. Probability Distributions:
o PMF (Probability Mass Function): For discrete outcomes like dice rolls.
o PDF (Probability Density Function): For continuous outcomes like heights.
Example: PMF tells us the chance of rolling each number on a die, while PDF shows
how likely different heights are in a group of people.
3. Expectation and Variance:
o E[X]: Expected value or average of X.
o Var(X): How spread out the possible values of X are.
Example: For a fair die, E[X] = 3.5 (average of 1 to 6) and Var(X) = 2.92.
4. Covariance and Correlation:
o Cov(X, Y): How X and Y change together.
o Corr(X, Y): How strongly X and Y are related.
Example: Cov(Height, Weight) tells us if taller people tend to weigh more, while Corr
shows how strong that relationship is.
Importance of Probabilistic Notation:
 Helps AI handle uncertainty in data, like predicting weather changes.
 Lets AI learn from data and update its knowledge, like predicting which movie you
might like.
 Allows AI to make smart decisions based on what it knows, even if it doesn’t have all
the information.
Conclusion:
 Probabilistic notation is crucial in AI because it gives a clear way for AI to understand
and work with uncertain information.
 Whether predicting outcomes, learning from data, or making decisions, mastering this
language helps AI become smarter and more reliable in various real-world applications.
EXTRA INFORMATION:
1. Sample Space:
o Definition: The sample space consists of all possible outcomes of an
experiment. Each outcome is a possible world.

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2nd and 3rd TOPICS: Basic Probability Notation

o Example: Rolling two dice. The sample space Ω includes outcomes like (1,1),
(1,2), ..., (6,6) totaling 36 outcomes.
2. Probability Model:
o Definition: Assigns a probability to each possible outcome in the sample
space, denoted by P(ω).
o Example: If both dice are fair, each outcome in Ω has a probability of 1/36.
3. Event:
o Definition: An event is a set of outcomes from the sample space.
o Example: "The total is 11" is an event. It includes outcomes (5,6) and (6,5).
P(Total = 11) = P((5,6)) + P((6,5)) = 1/36 + 1/36 = 1/18.
4. Unconditional (Prior) Probability:
o Definition: Probability assigned to an event without any additional
information.
o Example: P(doubles) when rolling fair dice is 1/6.
5. Conditional (Posterior) Probability:
 Definition: Probability of an event given that another event has occurred.
 Example: P(doubles | first die is 5) is the probability of rolling doubles given that
the first die shows 5. It adjusts the probability based on new information.
6. Product Rule:
 Definition: Relates conditional probability to unconditional probability.
 Example: P(A and B) = P(A | B) * P(B). For example, P(doubles and first die is 5)
= P(doubles | first die is 5) * P(first die is 5).
 Probability theory helps us quantify uncertainty and make decisions based on
observed evidence. It provides a formal framework to understand how likely events
are and how they relate to each other in terms of probability.

2nd and 3rd TOPICS are END

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4th Topic: Probabilistic Reasoning

I. Probabilistic Reasoning:
Probabilistic reasoning is a method used in intelligent systems to handle uncertainty. It uses
probabilistic concepts to make decisions or draw conclusions based on available information.
Problems of Full Joint Probability Distribution:
1. Complexity with Many Variables: When the number of variables increases, the full
joint probability distribution becomes extremely large and difficult to manage.
Example: Imagine trying to calculate the probabilities of all possible outcomes in a
complex scenario involving many factors, like predicting weather patterns based on
numerous environmental variables.
2. Tedious Specification: Specifying probabilities for every possible scenario
sequentially can be laborious and prone to errors.
Example: Assigning probabilities for every combination of symptoms and diseases in
a medical diagnosis system without any structured framework.
Bayesian Networks:
Bayesian networks, also known as belief networks or causal networks, are a structured way to
represent and reason about probabilistic relationships. They address the limitations of full joint
probability distributions.
Properties of Bayesian Networks:
a) Node Representation: Each node in a Bayesian network represents a random variable,
which can be discrete (like true/false) or continuous (like temperature).
Example: In a medical diagnosis system, nodes could represent variables such as symptoms
(fever, cough) or diseases (flu, pneumonia).
b) Directed Graph Structure: Nodes are connected by directed arrows that show the influence
between variables. An arrow from node X to Y means X directly influences Y.
Example: An arrow from "Smoking" to "Lung Cancer" in a health-related Bayesian network
signifies that smoking affects the likelihood of developing lung cancer.
c) Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG): It's a graph without any cycles (loops), ensuring there are
no feedback loops where a variable indirectly affects itself.
Example: A DAG ensures that in a system predicting financial market trends, no variable (like
stock price) influences itself through a series of dependent variables.

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d) Conditional Probability Distribution: Each node has associated probabilities that depend
on its parents in the network. This distribution captures how each variable is affected by its
direct influences.
Example: For "Rain" as a node, its conditional probability distribution might specify how
likely rain is given the previous day's weather and current atmospheric conditions.
Bayesian networks provide a structured approach to probabilistic reasoning by organizing
variables, their relationships, and their uncertainties, making complex systems more
manageable and allowing for efficient decision-making and inference.
Extra Information:
1. Definition and Importance of Probabilistic Reasoning:
 Probabilistic reasoning in AI uses probability theory to manage uncertainty in decision-
making.
 It enables AI systems to function effectively in complex, real-world scenarios where
information is incomplete or noisy.
2. Key Techniques:
 Bayesian Networks: Graphical models showing relationships between variables and
their probabilities, used in medical diagnosis and causal reasoning.
 Markov Models: Predict future states based on current and past states, widely used in
weather forecasting and speech recognition.
 Hidden Markov Models (HMMs): Extend Markov models to include hidden states,
crucial in applications like stock market prediction.
 Probabilistic Graphical Models: Framework encompassing Bayesian networks and
HMMs, suitable for complex relationships.
3. Applications:
 Robotics: Enables robots to navigate uncertain environments (e.g., SLAM algorithms).
 Healthcare: Aids in medical diagnosis by assessing disease likelihood from symptoms.
 Natural Language Processing (NLP): Used for tasks like part-of-speech tagging and
machine translation.
 Finance: Models market behavior and assesses risks in investment decisions.
4. Advantages:
 Flexibility: Adaptable to various domains and types of uncertainty.
 Robustness: Handles noise and incomplete data well, making it reliable in practical
applications.

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 Interpretable: Provides a clear framework for understanding uncertainty, aiding in

transparency and decision-making.
5. Role in AI Systems:
 Quantifies uncertainty by assigning probabilities rather than simple true/false
outcomes.
 Uses evidence and past experience to refine probabilities and make informed decisions.
 Enables effective decision-making in uncertain environments, improving reliability and
performance of AI systems.
6. Conclusion:
 Probabilistic reasoning is essential for creating intelligent AI systems that operate
effectively in real-world conditions.
 It enhances decision-making by acknowledging and quantifying uncertainty,
ultimately improving reliability and performance.
 These points highlight how probabilistic reasoning is fundamental in advancing AI
capabilities, enabling them to handle the complexities and uncertainties inherent in
real-world applications.
Extra Information:
1. Definition of Probabilistic Reasoning: Probabilistic reasoning integrates probability
theory with logic to manage uncertainty in knowledge representation. It allows us to
quantify the likelihood of different outcomes or states of the world based on available
evidence or assumptions.
2. Uncertainty in Knowledge Representation: Traditional approaches like propositional and
first-order logic assume certainty in predicates (statements about the world). In contrast,
probabilistic reasoning acknowledges uncertainty, where we are unsure about the truth value
of predicates due to various factors like unreliable sources, experimental errors, or
environmental variations.
3. Causes of Uncertainty: Several factors contribute to uncertainty in real-world scenarios,
including unreliable information sources, experimental errors, equipment faults,
temperature variations, and broader phenomena like climate change. These factors challenge
the certainty of statements we might make about the world.
4. Application Scenarios: Probabilistic reasoning is essential in AI when dealing with:
a) Unpredictable Outcomes: Situations where outcomes cannot be determined with
certainty, such as weather predictions or human behavior modeling.

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b) Complex Specifications: When the number of possible states or outcomes becomes

too vast to handle with certainty using traditional logic.
c) Unknown Errors: Cases where unexpected errors or anomalies occur during
experiments or data collection, affecting the reliability of information.
5. Role of Probability: Probability provides a structured framework to express and manage
uncertainty in probabilistic reasoning. It allows AI systems to make informed decisions or
predictions by quantifying uncertainty and updating beliefs based on new evidence.
6. Practical Examples: Examples of probabilistic reasoning applications include predicting
the likelihood of rain, modeling the behavior of individuals in various contexts, or assessing
the outcome of competitive events like sports matches.
7. Probabilistic reasoning is crucial in AI for handling uncertainty effectively, which is
pervasive in real-world scenarios due to various factors and phenomena beyond our
complete control or knowledge. It enriches knowledge representation by allowing AI
systems to reason about probabilities and make decisions in the face of uncertainty.
Conclusion Points
1. Handling Uncertain Knowledge: Probabilistic reasoning deals with uncertain information
by assigning probabilities to events, quantifying the likelihood of their occurrence.
2. Representation of Probabilities: Probabilities are represented using prior probability
distributions, which express beliefs about the likelihood of events before observing any
evidence.
3. Bayes' Rule: This fundamental rule in probability theory allows for updating beliefs
(posterior probability) based on new evidence, combining prior beliefs and likelihoods.
4. Naïve Bayes Classifier: A simple probabilistic classifier based on applying Bayes' theorem
with strong independence assumptions between features.
5. Bayesian Network: A graphical representation of probabilistic relationships among
variables, using nodes (variables) and edges (dependencies), providing a compact way to
model joint probability distributions.
6. Inference in Bayesian Networks: Techniques include exact methods (e.g., variable
elimination) and approximate methods (e.g., Markov Chain Monte Carlo) to compute
probabilities over variables.
7. Relational Probability Models: Extend Bayesian networks to handle relationships and
dependencies between entities in relational databases or knowledge bases.

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8. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC): An algorithm used for sampling from probability
distributions, particularly useful in Bayesian inference and approximate inference in
Bayesian networks.
9. First-Order Models: Challenges arise in applying probabilistic reasoning to complex
domains where relationships and rules involve first-order logic, requiring specialized
approaches.
10. Open Universe Probability Models: Address the issue of unknown or changing sets of
entities in probabilistic reasoning, allowing for more flexible and adaptive models.
11. These points highlight how probabilistic reasoning and Bayesian methods are applied in AI
systems to handle uncertainty and make informed decisions based on probabilistic
inference.

4th Topic END

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5th Topic: Representing Knowledge in an Uncertain Domain:

a) How Knowledge is Represented
Knowledge Representation is how we store information about the world so that a computer
can understand and use it to make decisions.
 Example: Think of it like writing down a recipe for cooking. The recipe tells you the
ingredients and steps needed to make a dish. In the same way, knowledge representation
tells a computer the important facts and rules about a situation.
b) Knowledge Representation Techniques
There are several techniques for representing knowledge, especially in uncertain domains
where information may not be complete or certain:
1. Logic-Based Representation:
o Propositional Logic: Simple statements that are either true or false.
 Example: "It is raining" (true or false).
o First-Order Logic: Uses objects, relations, and quantifiers.
 Example: "All cats are mammals."
2. Probabilistic Representation:
o Bayesian Networks: Graphical models that represent probabilistic
relationships among variables.
 Example: Representing the likelihood of having a cold given symptoms
like cough and fever.
3. Fuzzy Logic:
o Deals with reasoning that is approximate rather than fixed and exact.
 Example: "The room is warm" rather than a specific temperature.
4. Semantic Networks:
o Graph structures for representing knowledge in patterns of interconnected nodes
and edges.
 Example: Representing relationships like "A dog is a pet" and "A pet
can be a companion."
c) Role of Knowledge in Reasoning
Reasoning is the process of drawing conclusions from available knowledge.
 Example: If you know that "All humans are mortal" and "Socrates is a human," you
can reason that "Socrates is mortal."

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Knowledge helps in reasoning by providing the facts and rules needed to make logical
deductions, predictions, or decisions. In uncertain domains, probabilistic reasoning helps in
making decisions based on incomplete or uncertain information.
 Example: Given symptoms like fever and cough, reasoning with a Bayesian network
can help diagnose the probability of having a flu.
d) Issues in Knowledge Representation
There are several challenges when it comes to representing knowledge, especially in uncertain
domains:
1. Complexity:
o Representing real-world situations can be very complex.
 Example: Accurately modeling the weather involves many variables
and relationships.
2. Uncertainty:
o Not all information is certain; there can be unknowns or probabilities.
 Example: Predicting if it will rain tomorrow based on current weather
data.
3. Ambiguity:
o The same information can be interpreted in different ways.
 Example: The word "bank" can mean the side of a river or a financial
institution.
4. Incompleteness:
o Sometimes, not all information is available.
 Example: Diagnosing a disease without knowing all symptoms.
5. Scalability:
o Handling large amounts of knowledge efficiently.
 Example: A search engine indexing billions of web pages.
 Knowledge representation in uncertain domains involves storing information in
ways that allow computers to understand and use it for reasoning.
 Techniques like logic-based representation, probabilistic models, and fuzzy logic
help manage uncertainty. Knowledge plays a critical role in reasoning by providing
the necessary facts and rules.
 However, issues like complexity, uncertainty, ambiguity, incompleteness, and
scalability pose challenges to effective knowledge representation.

5th Topic END

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Topic-6: The Semantic of Bayesian Networks:

Semantics: The meaning or interpretation of a concept or term within a specific context.

Example: In a Bayesian Network, the semantics refer to the specific joint probability
distribution over all the variables represented by the network.
What is a Bayesian Network?
A Bayesian Network is like a map showing how different factors are related to each other and
how likely certain things are to happen. It has two main parts:
1. Nodes: These represent different factors or events (like whether it’s raining, whether
the grass is wet, etc.).
2. Links: These show how the factors are connected (like if it’s raining, then there’s a
chance the grass is wet).
How Does It Work?
1. Nodes and Conditional Probabilities: Each node has some numbers attached to it
called conditional probabilities. These numbers tell us how likely an event is, given
some other events. For example, if we have a node for "Rain" and a node for "Wet
Grass", the conditional probability tells us how likely the grass is wet if it’s raining.
2. Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs): Each node has a table (CPT) that shows the
conditional probabilities. For example, the "Wet Grass" node will have a table showing
the probability of the grass being wet if it’s raining and if it’s not raining.
Example
Imagine we have three nodes: Rain, Sprinkler, and Wet Grass.
 Rain: It can either rain or not rain.
 Sprinkler: It can either be on or off.
 Wet Grass: The grass can either be wet or dry.
Conditional Probabilities:
 If it rains, there’s an 80% chance the grass will be wet.
 If the sprinkler is on, there’s a 90% chance the grass will be wet.
 If it’s raining and the sprinkler is on, the grass is almost certainly wet.
Full Joint Distribution
The full joint distribution is like a giant table that lists all possible combinations of events (rain,
no rain, sprinkler on, sprinkler off) and their probabilities. This table helps us answer any
question about the domain (like what’s the probability the grass is wet given that it’s raining
and the sprinkler is off).

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Chain Rule
The chain rule lets us calculate the probability of any combination of events by multiplying the
conditional probabilities together.
For example, to find the probability of it raining and the grass being wet, we multiply the
probability of it raining by the probability of the grass being wet given that it’s raining.
Why Bayesian Networks Are Useful
 No Redundancy: Bayesian Networks don’t repeat any probability values, so there’s no
chance of conflicting information.
 Accurate Representation: It’s impossible to create a Bayesian Network that doesn’t
follow the rules of probability, ensuring accuracy.
In Simple Terms
 Nodes: Think of them as questions (Is it raining? Is the sprinkler on? Is the grass wet?).
 Links: These are the connections showing how one question affects another (Rain
affects Wet Grass).
 CPTs: These are small tables that tell us the answer to one question based on the
answers to others.
 Chain Rule: This is like a recipe for calculating the probability of any combination of
answers.
With a Bayesian Network, you can figure out the likelihood of any event based on the known
relationships and probabilities, and it’s always consistent with the rules of probability.

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Compactness of Bayesian Networks

Example: Burglar Alarm Network
Imagine a network where:
 "Burglary" and "Earthquake" can cause an "Alarm."
 If the "Alarm" goes off, "John" and "Mary" might call the police.
Why Bayesian Networks are Compact:
1. Local Structure:
 Each variable (e.g., "Alarm") depends directly on only a few other variables (e.g.,
"Burglary" and "Earthquake"), not all variables in the network.
 This local dependency keeps the network manageable.
2. Conditional Probabilities:
 We only need probabilities for direct influences (e.g., the probability that the alarm
goes off given a burglary and/or an earthquake), not for every possible combination
of all variables.
Numbers Example:
 Suppose we have 30 variables (like "Alarm," "JohnCalls," etc.), each influenced by at
most 5 others.
 For each variable, we need at most 252^525 (or 32) numbers to specify its probabilities.
 Total numbers needed: 30×32=96030 \times 32 = 96030×32=960.
 If we specified the full joint distribution, we'd need 2302^{30}230 (over a billion)
numbers.
Practical Considerations:
1. Simplicity vs. Accuracy:
Adding more connections (like linking "Earthquake" directly to "JohnCalls" and
"MaryCalls") might improve accuracy but increases complexity.
Example Decision:
 Without the link: John and Mary call based on the alarm.
 With the link: They might not call during an earthquake because they assume it's
the cause of the alarm.
 Whether to add this link depends on if the small gain in accuracy is worth the added
complexity.
By using Bayesian networks, we can efficiently manage and compute probabilities in large
domains by focusing on local structures and direct dependencies.

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If we choose the wrong order when creating a Bayesian network, we can end up with a more
complex network that requires more probabilities to be specified and includes difficult and
unnatural relationships.
Example: Burglary Scenario
Consider a scenario involving an alarm system that detects both burglaries and earthquakes,
and two people (John and Mary) who call when they hear the alarm.
Correct Node Order: Burglary, Earthquake, Alarm, JohnCalls, MaryCalls
In this correct order:
1. Burglary and Earthquake are independent events.
2. Alarm depends on both Burglary and Earthquake.
3. JohnCalls and MaryCalls depend on the Alarm.
This order results in a simple and compact network.
Incorrect Node Order: MaryCalls, JohnCalls, Alarm, Burglary, Earthquake
In this incorrect order:
1. MaryCalls has no parents.
2. JohnCalls depends on MaryCalls.
3. Alarm depends on both MaryCalls and JohnCalls.
4. Burglary depends on the Alarm.
5. Earthquake depends on both Alarm and Burglary.
This creates a more complex network with unnecessary relationships, making it harder to
specify and understand the probabilities. For example, you would need to assess the
probability of an Earthquake given both an Alarm and a Burglary, which is unnatural.
Very Bad Node Order: MaryCalls, JohnCalls, Earthquake, Burglary, Alarm
In this very bad order:
1. MaryCalls and JohnCalls have no parents.
2. Earthquake depends on both JohnCalls and MaryCalls.
3. Burglary depends on Earthquake.
4. Alarm depends on both Burglary and Earthquake.
This results in a network as complex as specifying the full joint distribution, requiring 31
distinct probabilities.
Key Point
Using a causal model (causes to effects) is simpler and requires fewer and more natural
probabilities than using a diagnostic model (symptoms to causes). For example, in medicine,

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doctors prefer giving probabilities for causes leading to symptoms rather than the other way
around.
Conclusion:
 Correct order = simpler network, fewer probabilities.
 Incorrect order = more complex network, more probabilities, unnatural relationships.
 Very bad order = maximum complexity, as complex as the full joint distribution.
Conditional independence in Bayesian networks using simple examples:
1. Numerical Semantics: This means defining how variables interact through specific
probabilities in the network.
Example: In a Bayesian network about home security, if Alarm going off influences
whether John Calls and Mary Calls, we might say:
 P(John Calls | Alarm) = 0.8 (John is likely to call if the alarm goes off).
 P(Mary Calls | Alarm) = 0.6 (Mary is somewhat likely to call if the alarm goes
off).
2. Topological Semantics:
This focuses on the structure of the network to determine independence relationships.
Example: In the same security network, if Alarm directly affects both John Calls and
Mary Calls, they would be independent of each other given Alarm.
If Alarm is on, whether John calls or not doesn’t change the probability of Mary
calling, and vice versa.
3. Equivalence of Semantics:
Both numerical and topological views are equivalent—they describe the same
relationships.
Example: Knowing that in our network, Burglary is independent of John Calls and
Mary Calls given Alarm and Earthquake allows us to precisely calculate how these
variables influence each other numerically.
4. Markov Blanket:
It includes a node's parents, children, and children's parents, making it a shield against
influences from other parts of the network.
Example: If Burglary’s Markov blanket includes Alarm and Earthquake, then
Burglary is independent of other variables like John Calls and Mary Calls given these
factors.

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 Bayesian networks use both graphical (topological) and probability-based (numerical)

approaches to show how variables interact.
 Understanding these concepts helps in modeling dependencies effectively, ensuring that
we can make accurate predictions and decisions based on the network's structure and
parameters.

(a) Conditional Independence Given Parents:

In a family tree, if X is a child and U are its parents, X is independent of its non-descendant
relatives (Z) given its parents (U). Knowing X's parents (like John and Mary) tells you
everything about X that knowing their cousins wouldn't.
(b) Conditional Independence Given Markov Blanket:
In a network, a node X is independent of all other nodes if you know everything about its
Markov blanket. This blanket includes X's parents, children, and their other parents. For
example, knowing a student's friends, their parents, and the student's own parents is enough to
predict the student's behavior without needing details about other students or their families.

End of 6th Topic

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Topic-7: Efficient Representation Of Conditional Distributions

Canonical Distribution:

Creating Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs) for Bayesian networks can be complex,
especially with fewer parent nodes (k). In the worst case, filling these tables could need O(2^k)
entries. However, many parent-child relationships follow standard patterns, described by
simpler distributions. For instance, in a network predicting rain (R) with Cloudy (C) and Windy
(W) as parents, instead of listing all combos (4), you might note rain is likelier when cloudy:
P(R | C, W) = High if C = True, else Low.
This simplifies the CPT by using patterns rather than every scenario, making it easier to
manage.
Deterministic Nodes:
In a Bayesian network, a deterministic node's value is exact and depends solely on its parent
nodes, without uncertainty:
 Logical Example: A child node "North American" with parent nodes "Canadian,"
"US," and "Mexican" simply reflects whether any parent is true.
 Numerical Example 1: If parent nodes are car prices at different dealers, the child
node "bargain hunter's price" would be the minimum price among the parents.
 Numerical Example 2: For a lake's parent nodes representing inflows and outflows,
the child node "change in water level" would be the difference between total inflows
and outflows.
Noisy-OR
Noisy logical relationships, like noisy-OR, handle uncertainty in connections. For example, in
propositional logic, we might say having a Fever could be due to Cold, Flu, or Malaria. But
unlike a strict OR, where having any one of these conditions guarantees a Fever, noisy-OR
allows for cases where having Cold alone might not result in a Fever.

Noisy-OR Assumption

1. Assumption 1: Listing Possible Causes:

When identifying causes of a symptom (like fever), we assume we've listed all major
causes. If some causes are unknown or miscellaneous, we can add a "leak node" to
cover these.

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2. Assumption 2: Independent Inhibition:

Each cause's ability to prevent the symptom (fever) is independent of others. For
instance, what stops Malaria from causing a fever is separate from what stops Flu.
3. Probability Calculation:
We assign probabilities (inhibition probabilities) to each cause preventing the
symptom:
 For Cold (qcold): 0.6

 For Flu (qflu): 0.2

 For Malaria (qmalaria): 0.1

4. Building Conditional Probability Table (CPT):
Using the noisy-OR model:
 If a cause is present, it can contribute to the symptom (fever).
 If multiple causes are present, their combined effect is considered.
5. Example CPT Calculation for Fever

Cold Flu Malaria P(Fever) P(¬Fever)

F F F 0.0 1.0

F F T 0.9 0.1

F T F 0.8 0.2

F T T 0.98 0.02

T F F 0.4 0.6

T F T 0.94 0.06

T T F 0.88 0.12

T T T 0.988 0.012

 These values show the probability of fever (P(Fever)) or no fever (P(¬Fever))

given combinations of causes (Cold, Flu, Malaria).
6. Advantages of Noisy-OR Model
 Simplifies complex probability assessments by focusing on how each cause
independently influences the symptom.
 Reduces the number of parameters needed compared to a full probability table,
making it easier to manage and learn from data.

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 This approach, used in medical diagnosis and other fields, helps model probabilistic
relationships efficiently while accounting for uncertainty and independence among
causes.
Bayesian nets with continuous variables
DISCRETIZATION
 Handling continuous variables in Bayesian networks is tricky because they can take on
countless values. To handle this, we often use discretization. For instance, instead of
considering every possible temperature, we might group them into categories like "cold,"
"warm," and "hot."
 Discretization simplifies things by reducing the number of specific values we deal with.
However, it can make our estimates less precise and require larger tables of probabilities.
 Alternatively, we can use standard math functions like the Gaussian (normal) distribution,
which uses parameters like mean (μ) and variance (σ²). This approach helps us model
values more accurately without discretizing them explicitly.
 In more complex situations, we might use nonparametric methods. Here, distributions are
represented indirectly through specific examples with known values of related variables.
 These methods make Bayesian networks useful for real-world problems involving
continuous data, balancing accuracy with practicality in calculations.

Hybrid Bayesian Network

In a hybrid Bayesian network, which deals with both discrete and continuous variables, we
specify how variables depend on each other using conditional distributions:
1. Continuous Variable (Cost):
 Given Parents (Harvest and Subsidy): We need to define how the cost (a
continuous variable) depends on its parents (which can be both continuous and
discrete).

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 Handling Discrete Parents: For discrete parents like Subsidy, we specify different
scenarios (Subsidy is true or false) by providing separate distributions (P(Cost |
Harvest, Subsidy) and P(Cost | Harvest, ¬Subsidy)).
 Handling Continuous Parent (Harvest): We use a linear Gaussian distribution,
where the cost's distribution (like its mean and variability) changes linearly with the
value of Harvest.
 Example: If Harvest affects Cost, we might say Cost follows a Gaussian
distribution with mean μ = ath + bt and standard deviation σ. Here, ath and bt are
parameters that define how Harvest influences Cost.
2. Discrete Variable (Buys):
 Given Continuous Parent (Cost): For Buys (a discrete variable), its distribution
depends on the continuous variable Cost.
 Example: Buys could be influenced by Cost such that the probability of buying
fruit might increase as Cost decreases. This relationship is specified in the Bayesian
network to show how Cost affects Buys.
In a hybrid Bayesian network:
 Continuous variables like Cost are described using linear Gaussian distributions, with
parameters that show how they depend on continuous and discrete parent variables.
 Discrete variables like Buys are described by how they depend on continuous parent
variables, showing the likelihood of different outcomes based on the value of the
continuous parent.
This structure helps model complex relationships in systems where both types of variables
interact.

For this example, then, the conditional distribution for Cost is specified by naming the linear Gaussian
distribution and providing the parameters at, bt, σt, af, bf,and σf.

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Figures 14.6(a) and (b) show these two relationships. Notice that in each case the slope is
negative, because cost decreases as supply increases. (Of course, the assumption of linearity
implies that the cost becomes negative at some point; the linear model is reasonable only if the
harvest size is limited to a narrow range.)
Figure 14.6(c) shows the distribution P(c|h), averaging over the two possible values of Subsidy
and assuming that each has prior probability 0.5. This shows that even with very simple models,
quite interesting distributions can be represented.
CONDITIONAL GAUSSIAN
In networks with linear Gaussian distributions:
 All continuous variables connected in a certain way form a joint distribution that looks
like a bell curve, known as a multivariate Gaussian.
 When discrete variables influence continuous ones, the conditional distribution of the
continuous variables given specific values of the discrete ones is called a conditional
Gaussian distribution.
For example, imagine predicting if a customer buys a product based on its cost. Let's say cost
is continuous, and the buying decision (Buys) is discrete (yes or no). If we think customers are
more likely to buy when the cost is low and less likely as it increases, we can model this with
a soft threshold.
To create soft thresholds, we use the cumulative standard normal distribution function, Φ(x).

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For instance, the probability a customer buys given a cost (c) might be Φ((−c+μ)/σ), where:
P(buys |Cost =c)=Φ((−c+μ)/σ)
 μ is the cost where the probability of buying is 50%,
 σ controls how quickly the probability changes around μ.
As cost moves away from μ, the probability of buying decreases smoothly according to the
standard normal curve. This method helps us model complex decision-making in a clear,
probabilistic way.

 This probit distribution (pronounced “pro-bit” and short for “probability unit”) is illustrated in
Figure 14.7(a). The form can be justified by proposing that the underlying decision process has a
hard threshold, but that the precise location of the threshold is subject to random Gaussian noise.
 An alternative to the probit model is the logit distribution (pronounced “low-jit”). It uses the
logistic function 1/(1 + e−x) to produce a soft threshold: P(buys |Cost =c)= 1/ 1+exp (−2−c+μ/σ) .
 This is illustrated in Figure 14.7(b). The two distributions look similar, but the logit actually has
much longer “tails.” The probit is often a better fit to real situations, but the logit is sometimes
easier to deal with mathematically. It is used widely in neural networks. Both probit and logit can
be generalized to handle multiple continuous parents by taking a linear combination of the parent
values.

End of Topic -7

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8th Topic: APPROXIMATE INFERENCE BAYESIAN NETWORKS

MONTECARLO

 Big and complex networks make exact answers hard to find. So, we turn to approximate
methods like Monte Carlo algorithms, such as simulated annealing. These methods
randomly sample data to give results close to the right ones. They're widely used in science
to estimate tricky values.
 For example, imagine predicting an election outcome in a large country with many factors
affecting voters. Monte Carlo methods help us estimate different outcomes by randomly
sampling voter opinions and behaviors.
 When calculating posterior probabilities, we look at two main types of algorithms: direct
sampling and Markov chain sampling. Each tackles complex network data differently to
give useful estimates.
 Other methods like variational approaches and loopy propagation are also mentioned as
ways to handle similar problems at the end of the chapter.
Direct sampling methods
1. Direct Sampling Overview: Sampling methods generate random outcomes from known
probability distributions. For example, flipping an unbiased coin with a 50% chance for
heads and tails can be simulated by generating a random number between 0 and 1. If it's ≤
0.5, it's heads; otherwise, it's tails.
2. Simple Example: To simulate a coin flip, generate a random number between 0 and 1. ≤
0.5 = heads, > 0.5 = tails.
3. Sampling in Bayesian Networks: Bayesian networks depict probabilistic relationships
among variables. Sampling follows a topological order, starting with variables without
parents and using their distributions to sample values. Proceed to variables with known
parent values using conditional distributions until all are sampled.
4. Conclusion In a Bayesian network where variables like Weather, Temperature, and Outfit
Choice are interconnected, sample in topological order: Weather first, then Temperature,
and finally Outfit Choice, respecting each variable's dependencies. This approach ensures
that sampled values reflect the network's probabilistic structure accurately.

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Algorithm Explanation:

The function PRIOR-SAMPLE that generates events from a Bayesian network

PRIOR-SAMPLE constructs a sample by iteratively sampling each variable in the network according to
its conditional probability distribution, given the values already sampled for its parent variables.

1. Sampling Process: We use a method called PRIOR-SAMPLE to generate events from

a network (like a Bayesian network). Each event depends on its parent events.
2. Probability Calculation: The probability of generating a specific event using PRIOR-
SAMPLE is the product of the probabilities of its components given their parents.
3. Accuracy of Sampling: As we increase the number of samples (N), the fraction of
times a specific event occurs (NPS(x1,...,xn)/N) gets closer to its actual probability
(SPS(x1,...,xn)).
4. Estimating Probabilities: If we generate a large number of samples, we can estimate
the probability of any event by counting how often it occurs among all samples. This
estimated probability becomes more accurate with more samples.
5. Consistency: When we say an estimate is "≈" to a probability, it means the estimate
becomes exact in the limit of infinitely many samples. This type of estimate is called
consistent.

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6. Example: For instance, if we sample 1000 times and find that 511 of those samples
have Rain = true, then we estimate the probability of rain as 0.511.
7. These points highlight how sampling from a Bayesian network helps us understand
probabilities of different events, even when the exact probabilities are not initially
known.

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Algorithm: Rejection sampling in Bayesian networks

Rejection sampling is a method used to estimate probabilities when dealing with uncertain
situations, like predicting if it will rain based on certain observations. Here’s a simplified
explanation with examples:
What is rejection sampling?
Rejection sampling helps us estimate probabilities when direct calculation is hard. Imagine you
want to know the chance of rain (R) given that the sprinkler is on (S = true), denoted as P(R |
S = true).
How does rejection sampling work?
1. Generate Samples: First, generate many random scenarios (samples) of sprinkler and
rain using what we know about their typical occurrences (prior knowledge).
Example: Assume we know from past data:
o P(Rain) = 0.3 (30% chance of rain on any given day)
o P(Sprinkler) = 0.4 (40% chance the sprinkler is on on any given day)
2. Apply Evidence: Apply the evidence (observations) we have. In our example, we
observe that the sprinkler is on (S = true).
o Among the samples where S = true, count how many times it also rains (R =
true).
3. Estimate Probability: Estimate P(R | S = true) based on the ratio of how often it rains
when the sprinkler is on compared to all times the sprinkler is on.
Example: Out of 100 days sampled where the sprinkler is on (S = true):
o 40 days might have the sprinkler on (based on our prior)
o Among those 40, we find it rains on 12 days.
Therefore, P(R | S = true) ≈ 12/40 = 0.3.
Why is rejection sampling limited?
Rejection sampling becomes less effective as more variables (like more evidence to consider)
are involved because it discards many samples that don’t match the evidence. For instance, if
we had to consider not just the sprinkler but also the color of the sky the previous night (another
evidence), we might end up with very few samples that fit all conditions.
Real-world comparison:
In everyday life, estimating probabilities can be similar to rejection sampling. For example, to
guess if it will rain (R) after seeing a red sky at night (RedSkyAtNight = true):

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 We might observe how often it rains after seeing a red sky, ignoring days when the sky
wasn’t red.
If we observe 50 red sky nights and it rains 15 times the next day, then P(R |
RedSkyAtNight = true) ≈ 15/50 = 0.3.
Conclusion:
Rejection sampling provides a way to estimate probabilities in complex scenarios by generating
and filtering scenarios based on observed evidence. However, it becomes impractical for highly
complex problems due to the large number of samples it discards.

Algorithm Explanation: Rejection sampling for Bayesian networks:

Rejection sampling is a Monte Carlo method used in Bayesian networks for generating
samples from joint probability distributions:

1. Basic Idea: It randomly assigns values to variables based on priors and accepts or
rejects samples based on observed evidence.
2. Procedure:
a. Randomly assign values to variables according to priors.
b. Check if the sample satisfies observed evidence; keep or reject it accordingly.
c. Repeat until enough valid samples are collected.
3. Sampling Efficiency: Can be inefficient with low prior probabilities of satisfying
evidence, leading to many rejections.
4. Consistency: Provides consistent estimates of the posterior distribution with sufficient
samples, but can be computationally expensive for large networks or strict evidence.
5. Suitability: Easy to implement but may struggle with scalability in complex networks
or dependencies.
6. Comparison: Less efficient compared to methods like likelihood weighting due to
higher rejection rates, wasting computational resources.Rejection sampling ensures
correct posterior estimates with enough samples, its inefficiency in managing evidence
constraints and scalability issues restrict its practical utility in many Bayesian network
scenarios.

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This method relies on generating samples and selecting only those consistent with the observed
evidence, making it suitable for querying Bayesian networks where direct computation of
probabilities may be impractical.

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Algorithm: Likelihood Weighting:

 Likelihood weighting is a technique in artificial intelligence used for probabilistic inference.
 It works by sampling from the Bayesian network, focusing more on variables that are relevant to
the query being evaluated.
 This method improves efficiency compared to exhaustive enumeration of all possible outcomes.
 Likelihood weighting efficiently computes probabilities in Bayesian networks by focusing sampling
efforts on events consistent with observed evidence, and adjusting for the likelihood of those
events given the evidence.
 This avoids the high rejection rates seen in rejection sampling, making it a more effective method
for inference.

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Algorithm-4: Inference by Markov chain simulation

MARKOV CHAIN MONTECARLO Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)algorithms

Gibbs sampling in Bayesian networks

 In Gibbs sampling for Bayesian networks, we start with an initial guess where observed
variables like 'Sprinkler' and 'Wet Grass' are fixed. We then randomly set the values of
other variables, such as 'Cloudy' and 'Rain'. For example, let's say we start with 'Cloudy' as
true and 'Rain' as false: [true, true, false, true].
 The algorithm then updates one variable at a time based on its Markov blanket—its parents,
children, and children's parents. This process continues, flipping variables while keeping
the observed variables fixed.
 This random wandering through possible assignments helps us estimate probabilities like
P(Rain | Sprinkler = true, Wet Grass = true)
Now the nonevidence variables are sampled repeatedly in an arbitrary order.
For example:
1. Sampling Cloudy:
 Imagine we're trying to determine if it's cloudy outside. We look at related factors, like
if the sprinkler is on and if it's raining.

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 Suppose we know the sprinkler is on and it's not raining. Based on our model, if we
find that the probability of cloudy being false is higher, we update our current situation
accordingly.
2. Sampling Rain:
 Next, let's determine if it's raining. This depends on factors like whether it's cloudy, if
the sprinkler is on, and if the grass is wet.
 For instance, if we know it's not cloudy, the sprinkler is on, and the grass is wet, we
might find that rain is likely to be true.
3. Counting States:
 As we go through these steps, each combination of conditions we consider forms a
state. Some states will have rain as true, others as false.
 Let's say we count 20 states where rain is true and 60 states where it's false.
4. Calculating the Probability:
 To answer how likely it is to rain, we normalize the counts we found. This means
dividing the number of true rain states by the total number of states considered.
 In our example, with 20 true rain states and 60 false ones, the normalized probability is
0.25 (or 25%) for rain being true and 0.75 (or 75%) for rain being false.
 In Bayesian networks help us compute probabilities by sampling different scenarios
based on known conditions, ultimately giving us a clearer picture of the likelihood of
events like rain occurring.
The complete algorithm is shown in Figure 14.16.

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The Gibbs sampling algorithm for approximate inference in Bayesian networks:

The Gibbs sampling algorithm is used for estimating probabilities in Bayesian networks when some
evidence about variables is known.

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Markov chains, stationary distributions, and detailed balance:

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Gibbs sampling is a method used in Bayesian networks to generate samples from the
posterior distribution of variables given evidence:

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9th Topic: Relational and First-Order Probability Models

I. Representational Advantages of First-Order Logic vs. Bayesian Networks
In Chapter 8, explored how first-order logic improves upon propositional logic by allowing
more concise expression of relationships among objects and properties. This is crucial in
domains with varying numbers of objects and complex interactions.
Limitations of Bayesian Networks
Bayesian networks are constrained by their propositional nature, limiting them to fixed sets of
variables and predefined value domains. This can restrict their applicability in scenarios with
nuanced interactions.
Example Scenario: Assessing Book Quality with Customer Recommendations
Consider an online book retailer analyzing book quality based on customer recommendations:
 Bayesian Networks Approach: A basic method might average recommendations,
adjusting for variance based on the number received. This overlooks factors like
varying customer honesty and kindness, which can bias recommendations.
 First-Order Logic Approach: Here, each customer's recommendation for a book (e.g.,
recommending Book A to Customer X) can be represented with variables such as
Honest(X), Kindness(X), and Quality(Book A). Rather than manually specifying these
relationships repeatedly, first-order logic uses a structured approach where the
recommendation (Recommendation(X, Book A)) depends on these variables.
Example in First-Order Logic:
plaintext
Copy code
Recommendation(X, Book A) ∼ RecCPT(Honest(X), Kindness(X), Quality(Book A))

This states that the recommendation of Book A by Customer X follows a Conditional

Probability Table (CPT), which considers the variables Honest(X), Kindness(X), and Quality
(Book A).
Benefits of First-Order Logic:
 Flexibility: It allows for a more flexible representation of complex interactions among
customers and books.
 Scalability: Easily scales with increasing numbers of customers and books without the
need for repetitive manual adjustments to the network structure.

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 Nuanced Analysis: Enables a nuanced analysis by capturing diverse customer

behaviors and book attributes that a fixed Bayesian network structure may struggle to
accommodate.
 Bayesian networks are useful for certain structured problems, first-order logic provides
a more adaptable framework for modeling dynamic and intricate relationships in
domains where such variability is significant.

II. Possible worlds

1. Possible Worlds in Probability Models:
o In probability theory, a set of possible worlds, denoted as Ω, represents all
conceivable scenarios or states of affairs.
o Each world ω in Ω has an associated probability P(ω), which tells us how likely
that particular world is.
Example: Consider a coin toss where Ω = {Heads, Tails}. If we assume a fair coin,
P(Heads) = P(Tails) = 0.5.
2. Possible Worlds in Bayesian Networks:
o In Bayesian networks, possible worlds are specific assignments of values to
variables that satisfy the network's structure and conditional probabilities.
Example: Imagine a Bayesian network for diagnosing diseases, where variables could
be {Symptoms, Disease}. Possible worlds would be {Fever, Flu} or {No Fever, No
Flu}, etc.

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3. First-Order Probability Models:

o For first-order logic, possible worlds involve a richer structure. They encompass
sets of objects with relations among them, akin to the semantics of first-order
logic.
Example: Suppose we have a domain with objects {Alice, Bob} and a relation Likes(x,
y) which denotes x likes y. Possible worlds would include assignments such as
{Likes(Alice, Bob)} or {Likes(Bob, Alice)}.
4. Challenges with Infinite Sets of Worlds:
o One issue with first-order models is that the set of possible worlds can be
infinite. For instance, if we have an infinite number of individuals (objects) and
relations, the number of possible worlds becomes uncountably large.
5. Dealing with Infinite Sets:
o To manage this, one approach is to adopt database semantics, where we assume
a finite set of possible worlds by restricting the domain to named constants
(unique names assumption) and ensuring domain closure (no unnamed objects).
Example: In a domain of books and readers, if we only consider named readers {Alice,
Bob} and books {Book1, Book2}, possible worlds are constrained to combinations like
{Alice likes Book1, Bob likes Book2}.
The first-order logic allows for rich modeling of complex scenarios, managing infinite sets of
possible worlds poses challenges. Techniques like database semantics help in restricting these
sets to manageable sizes for probabilistic reasoning.

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Relational Probability Model

SIBYL addresses uncertainties in symbolically represented object existence and identity.

SIBYL addresses uncertainties regarding the existence of objects behind observed symbols and
whether different symbols refer to the same object.
In a Relational Probability Model (RPM), we deal with uncertainty about how symbols
correspond to real-world objects. Unlike traditional databases that assume everything not
known is false, RPMs acknowledge uncertainties like whether different symbols refer to the
same object or how many objects exist.
For example, imagine a book retailer using ISBNs to identify books. A single book like "Gone
With the Wind" might have multiple ISBNs, which complicates tracking recommendations or
sales across different identifiers. Similarly, customers using multiple login IDs can confuse
systems meant to track reputation, like in online reviews or security systems.
These uncertainties are critical because:
1. Existence Uncertainty: We're unsure about which objects truly exist behind the
symbols we observe. For instance, how many distinct copies of "Gone With the Wind"
are there?
2. Identity Uncertainty: We may not be certain which symbols actually refer to the same
underlying object. For example, are two different ISBNs really identifying the same
physical book?
RPMs help us model scenarios where what we observe (like ISBNs or customer IDs) might not
perfectly reflect the underlying reality (actual books or unique customers). This flexibility in
handling uncertainty makes RPMs useful in areas like online retail and security where clear
identifications can be tricky due to various factors.
Relational Probability Models

Relational Probability Models (RPMs) are similar to first-order logic but use symbols for
constants, functions, and predicates. Predicates act like functions that determine true or false
statements.
In the context of recommending books to customers, here are the key elements simplified:
1. Symbols and Types:
o Constants: Names of customers (like C1, C2) and books (like B1, B2).
o Functions (returning values):
 Honest: Determines if a customer is honest (Honest(C1)).
 Kindness: Rates the kindness of a customer (Kindness(C1)).

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 Quality: Rates the quality of a book (Quality(B1)).

 Recommendation: Rates how likely a customer recommends a specific
book (Recommendation(C1, B1)).
Each function has specific types for its arguments and return values:
o Honest and Kindness are boolean (true/false).

o Quality is rated on a scale of 1 to 5.

o Recommendation is rated on a scale of 1 to 5.

2. Random Variables:
o RPM defines random variables by instantiating each function with specific
combinations of customers and books. For instance:
 Honest(C1), Honest(C2), etc.

 Quality(B1), Quality(B2), etc.

 Recommendation(C1, B1), Recommendation(C1, B2), etc.

3. Dependencies:
o Each function has dependencies that govern its behavior. These are statements
about the likelihood of certain values based on other factors:
 Honest(c) might have probabilities like 0.99 for true and 0.01 for false.

 Kindness(c) might have probabilities like 0.1, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.3 for its

ratings.
 Quality(b) might have probabilities like 0.05, 0.2, 0.4, 0.2, 0.15 for its

ratings.
 Recommendation(c, b)'s probability might be derived from a

conditional distribution table (RecCPT) based on the honesty, kindness,

and quality values associated with c and b.
4. Bayesian Network:
o By instantiating these dependencies for all known customers and books, RPM
forms a Bayesian network.
o This network defines a joint probability distribution over all the random
variables, representing how likely different states (like honesty, kindness,
quality, recommendation) are given the relationships between customers and
books.

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RPMs help model relationships and probabilities between entities like customers and books,
enabling systems to make informed predictions and recommendations based on data and logical
dependencies defined for each entity.
Context Specific Independence

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1. Emergence of Sophisticated Reasoning: RPM models demonstrate how probabilities

spread through connections among objects, leading to clearer and more reliable results
as connections and objects increase.
2. Inference in RPMs: "Unrolling" involves gathering evidence and queries about
constant symbols to construct an equivalent Bayes network for inference.
3. Drawbacks of Unrolling: The resulting Bayes network can become very large,
especially with many possible objects related to unknown functions or relations.
4. Improving Standard Inference Methods: Techniques like caching can speed up
computations by exploiting repeated structures in the unrolled Bayes network.
5. Adapting Methods for RPMs: Methods that exploit specific contexts and MCMC
algorithms are beneficial for handling relational uncertainty in RPMs.
6. MCMC Algorithm: Samples potential scenarios where relational structures are fully
understood, simplifying dependencies for each scenario and managing relational
uncertainty effectively.
7. Comparison with Logical Inference: RPMs require partial unrolling into Bayesian
networks similar to how logical propositions are handled in first-order logical inference.
8. Alternative Approaches: Systems like resolution theorem provers and logic
programming avoid exhaustive unrolling by instantiating logical variables as needed,
akin to the lifting approach in probabilistic inference.
Enhancing Book Rating Predictions: Managing Author Uncertainty and Customer Bias
Imagine a website where customers rate books. Some users are honest in their reviews, while
others might not be truthful. Dishonest reviewers ignore a book's quality and their kindness
doesn't influence their ratings.

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For example:
 An honest customer might always give books by their favorite author a perfect rating
of 5.
 If we don't know who wrote a certain book, we have to consider all possible authors
and how much customers like each author to predict their ratings accurately.
This system deals with uncertainty about book authors and customer preferences to make better
predictions about book ratings.
Open-universe probability models (Managing Ambiguity in Real-World Object Identification)

1. Unlike in databases with unique IDs, real-life systems like cameras, text processors, and
intelligence analysis deal with ambiguity.
2. Cameras may not recognize if the object around a corner is the same as seen earlier.
3. Text processors must determine if different mentions (e.g., "Mary," "Dr. Smith," "she")
refer to the same entity.
4. Intelligence analysts track spies without knowing how many there are or if various
identifiers belong to the same spy.
5. Human understanding involves learning what objects exist and linking observations
without clear, unique identifiers.
6. Dealing with uncertainty is a crucial challenge in these contexts.
OPEN UNIVERSE

Open-Universe Probability Models (OUPMs) compared to Bayesian Networks and their

application in a book-recommendation context:
1. Purpose: OUPMs maintain a consistent probability distribution across all scenarios by
allowing creation of new objects.
2. Comparison with Bayesian Networks:
o OUPMs create and define distributions over new objects dynamically.
o Bayesian networks use predefined structures to assign values to variables.
3. Generating Objects:
o OUPMs model scenarios with variable numbers and types of objects.
o Example: Predicting customer count and their login IDs using probabilistic
distributions.
4. Example in Book-Recommendation Domain:
o OUPMs predict customer numbers via distributions like log-normal.

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o They differentiate between honest and dishonest customers with distinct

distribution patterns for login IDs.
5. Overall Benefit: OUPMs offer a robust framework for probabilistic modeling by
ensuring consistent distributions across all possible object configurations.

Customer Behavior Modeling with Log-Normal Distributions:

1. We expect between 100 and 10,000 customers, represented by a log-normal

distribution with parameters μ = 6.9 and σ = 2.32.
2. For honest customers, each customer has exactly one ID.
3. For dishonest customers, the number of IDs follows a log-normal distribution with
the same parameters μ = 6.9 and σ = 2.32.
Origin Function:
In BLOG, imagine a system where each customer has several unique login IDs. Each possible
scenario or "world" in this system shows exactly how these IDs were created. To ensure
accuracy, the system follows specific rules to calculate probabilities across all these scenarios.
Algorithms in BLOG can figure out answers to questions about these scenarios, getting closer
to the true likelihoods over time. It's tricky to design these algorithms, especially when dealing
with endless possibilities. Despite these challenges, using first-order logic for probabilistic
reasoning significantly improves AI's ability to handle uncertain information, like in computer
vision or intelligence analysis.

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