UNIT 5: PROBABILITY THEORY AND DISTRIBUTION

Objectives
After studying this chapter, you should be able to:
 Understand the fundamental concepts of probability.
 Apply the principle of counting techniques to solve real problem.
 Define some basic terms of probability.
5.1 Definition of some probability terms
 Experiment: Any process of observation or measurement or any process which generates
well defined outcome.
 Random experiment: it is an experiment which can be repeated any number of times
under the same conditions, but does not give unique results. The result will be any one of
several possible outcomes, but for each trial, the result will not be known in advance. A
Random experiment is also called a trial & the outcomes are called events.
 Sample space: - is the collection of all possible outcomes or sample points of a random
experiment.
 Sample point: -Each element of sample space is called Sample point.
 Event: - is a subset of a sample space i.e. an event is a collection of sample points.
 Impossible event:- this is an event which will never occur.

Example 5.1 : In an experiment of rolling a fair die, S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, each sample point is an
equally likely outcome. It is possible to define many events on this sample space
as follows:

A = {1, 4} - the event of getting a perfect square number.

B = {2, 4, 6} - the event of getting an even number.

C = {1, 3, 5} - the event of getting an odd number.

D = the event of getting number 8 is an impossible event.

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Example 5.2 If we toss a coin the sample space (S) of this experiment S = {head, tail} where
head and tail are two faces of a coin. If we are interested the outcome of head will
turn up then the event E= {head}.

Example 5.3 Find the sample space of tossing a coin three times.

S= {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}

 Mutually exclusive event: - two events A and B are said to be mutually exclusive if there
is no sample point which is common to A and B. i.e. A ∩ B =
 Independent event: two or more events are said to be independent if the occurrence or
non-occurrence of an event does not affect the occurrence or non-occurrence of the other.
 Dependent Events: Two events are dependent if the first event affects the outcome or
occurrence of the second event in a way the probability is changed.
 Complement of an Event: the complement of an event A means nonoccurrence of A and
is denoted by A', or Ac contains those points of the sample space which don’t belong to A.
 Equally likely outcomes: if each outcome in a sample space has the same chance to be
occurred.

Example 5.4 Casting a fair die all possible outcomes are equally likely.

5.2 Counting rules of probability

In order to calculate probabilities, we have to know
 The number of elements of an event.
 The number of elements of the sample space.
That is in order to judge what is probable, we have to know what is possible.
In order to determine the number of out comes one can use several rules of counting:
1. The addition rule
2. The multiplication rule
3. Permutation rule
4. Combination rule

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 1. The addition Rule
Suppose that a procedure, designated by 1, can be done in n1 ways. Assume that a second
procedure designated by 2, can be done in n2 ways. Suppose furthermore, that it is not possible
that both 1 and 2 done together. Then, the number of ways in which we can do1 or 2 is
ways.
In an experiment the probability of one or the other events A or B happening is given by
P (A  B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A  B)
If A and B are mutually exclusive then P (A  B) = P (A) + P (B) since A  B =  and P (A 
B) = P ( ) = 0
In general if the probabilities of n mutually exclusive events E1, E2, … , En happening are
P1, P2, …, Pn respectively, then the probability of one or the other of the n mutually exclusive
events to occur is given by P (E1  E2  …En) = P (E1) + P (E2) + … + P (En) = P1 + P2 +
…+ Pn

Example 5.5 Suppose we are planning a trip to some place. If there are 3 bus routes & two train
routs that we can take, then there are 3+2=5 different routes that we can take.

Example 5.6 In throwing a pair of dice, what is the probability of achieving a sum between 6 and
10.

Solution: Let E1 be an event achieving a sum 7 then E1 = {(1, 6), (1,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2),
6
(6,1)} hence P (E1) =36, Let E2 be an event of achieving a sum 8 then E2 = {(2,6), (3,5),
5
(4,4), (5,3), (6,2)}, hence P (E2) =36. Let E3 be an event achieving a sum 9 then E3 =
4
{(3,6), (4,5), (5,4), (6,3)} hence P (E3) =36 since E1, E2 and E3 are mutually exclusive
6 5 4 5
events P (E1  E2  E3) = P (E1) + P (E2) + P (E3) =36 = 36
36 36

Example 5.7 Example 2: 9 cards bearing numerals 1,2,3 …or 9 is placed in box and one card is
withdrawn randomly. What is the probability that the card drawn is numbered
either an odd number or a multiple of 3?

Solution: Let E1 be an event of odd numbered to be drawn i.e.E1 = {1,3,5,7,9} and E2 be

an event of multiple of 3 to be drawn i.e. E2 = {3,6,9}

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 5 3 6
 P (E1  E2) = P (E1) + P (E2) - P (E1  E2) =9 −9=9=9
9

Example 5.8 Example3: find the probability of drawing a black card or a king from a deck of 52
cards randomly.

Solution: Let E1 be the event of drawing a black card, then n (E1) = 26 and E2 be the event
of drawing a king then n (E2) = 4 where 2 of them are black.
6 4 7
 P (E1  E2) = P (E1) + P (E2) - P (E1  E2) =5 −5 =
5 3
2. Multiplication rule
If an operation consists of k steps and the 1st step can be done in n1 ways, the 2nd step can be
done in n2 ways (regardless of how the 1st step was performed), the kth step can be done in nk
ways, (regardless of how the preceding steps were performed), then the entire operation can be
performed in n1 · n2 ·… · nk ways.
In an experiment the probability that two independent events E1 and E2 occurring is given by
P (E1  E2) = P (E1)  P (E2)

In general the probabilities of n independent events E1, E2, … , En happening is given by

P (E1  E2  …  E2) = P (E1)  P (E2)  , …,  P(En)

Example 5.9 Suppose that a person has 2 different pairs of trousers and 3 shirts. In how many
ways can he wear his trousers and shirts?

Solution: He can choose the trousers in n1  2 ways, and shirts in n 2  3 ways. Therefore, he
can wear in n1  n 2  2  3  6 possible ways.

Example 5.10 Suppose a die is thrown twice, what is the probability of the 1st throw being less
than 3 and the 2nd throw being less than 4.

Solution: Let E1 be an event of the 1st throw being less than 3, and E2 be an event of the 2nd
3 3
throw being less than 4. Then P (E1  E2) = P (E1)  P (E2) = 6 ∗ 6 = 6 = 6

Example 5.11 Suppose one box contains 5 black and 3 white balls and a second box contains 4
black and 6 white balls if one ball is drawn from each box, what is the probability
that

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 a) both are black
b) both are white
c) 1 white and 1 black
Solution: a) let E1 be an event of being black from the 1st box and E2 be an event of being
black from the 2nd box. Then E1 and E2 are independent.
5 4
 P (E1  E2) = P (E1). P (E2) =8 ∗ =4
0

b) E1 is then an event of being white from the 1st box and E2 is an event of being white from
the 2nd box. Then E1 and E2 are also in dependent events

3 6 9
. 
 P (E1  E ) = P (E ). P (E ) = 8 10
2 1 2 40
c) We get an event of 1 white and 1 black if either we get an event of being white from the 1st
box and black from the 2nd box or an event of being black from the 1st box and white from the
2nd box. Thus P (E1  E2 )  (E1  E2) = P (E1  E2) + P (E1  E2) = P(E1) . P (E2) + P
(E1). P (E2)

5 6 3 4 21
.  . 
= 8 10 8 10 40 or

 10 9  21
1  
P (1w, 1b) = 1 – [P (E1  E2) + P (E1  E ) =
2
 40 40  40 or

c(5,1)  c(6,1)  c(3,1)  c(4,1) 30  12 21

 
𝑃 (1𝑤, 1𝑏) = c(8,1)  c(10,1) 80 40

Example 5.12 What is the probability of getting two consecutive kings if two cards are drawn at
random from a deck of 52 playing cards if

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 a) the 1st card is replaced before the 2nd card is drawn
b) the 1st card is not replaced before the 2nd card is drawn

Solution:
a) There are 4 kings among the 52 cards. Thus the probability of the 1st king and 2nd king to

4 4 1
. 
be drawn is
52 52 169 (the two events are independent)

b) If the 1st card drawn is king and not replaced then there are only 3 kings remained

4 3 1
. 
among the rest 51 cards the probability of the 1st king and 2nd king is
52 51 221
Example 5.13 If A and B are events such that P(A) = 0.7 ad P(B) = 0.4 and P(A  B) = 0.2 are
A and B independent event?

Solution: Since P(A) P(B) = 0.7  0.4 = 0.28 and P(A  B) = 0.2 we have P(A  B)  P(A) .
P(B) therefore A and B are not independent events.
3. Permutation
An arrangement of objects with attention given to order of arrangement is called permutation.
The number of permutation of n different objects taken r at a time is obtained by:
n!
Pr  for r  0, 1, 2,  , n
(n  r )!
n

Permutation Rule:
a) The number of permutations of n objects taken all together is n!
n! n!
i.e. n!= n*(n-1)*(n-2)*…*3*2*1 = Pn    n!
(n  n)! 0!
n

Note: By definition 0! = 1
b) The arrangement of n distinct objects in a specific order using r objects at a time is is called
the permutation of n objects taken r objects at a time. It is written as nPr and the formula is

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 n!
Pr 
(n  r )!
n

c) The number of distinct permutation of n objects in which n1 are alike, n2 are alike, ..., nk are
alike is
n! for n  n1  n2    nk
n1 !.n 2 !. .n k !

Example 5.14 Find number of permutations of the letters in the word ‘‘statistics’’.

Solution:
There are 3 s’s, 3t’s, 1a’s, 2i’s and 1c’s. i.e. = , = , 3 = 1, 4 = 5 =1
Therefore 10! = 50,400.
3!.3!.1!.2!1!

Example 5.15 A photographer wants to arrange 3 persons in a row for photograph. How many
different types of photographs are possible?

Solution:
Assume 3 persons Aster (A), lemma (L), Yared (Y) and n=3
Since n! =3! = 3*2! = 6, there are 6 possible arrangement ALY, AYL, LAY, LYA,YLA and
YAL.

Example 5.16 Suppose we have a letters A,B, C, D & E

a) How many permutations are there taking all the four?

b) How many permutations are there taking two letters at a time?
Solution:
a) Here n = 5, there are four distinct object.
There are 5! = 120 permutations.
b) Here n = 5, r = 2
There are 5P2 = 5!/(5-2)! = 120/6 = 20 permutations.

Example 5.17 Fifteen Ethiopian athletes were entered to the race. In how many different ways
could prizes for the first, the second and the third place be awarded?

Solution

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 15 objects taken 3 at a time 15P3=15!/(15-3)! = 2730 ways.
4. Combination
A selection of objects considered without regard to order in which they occur is called
Combination. The number of combination of n different objects taking r of them at a time is
n n!
Cr     , for r  0,1,2,, n .
 r  r!(n  r )!
n

Example 5.18 Given the letters A, B, C, and D list the permutation and combination for
selecting two letters.
Solution:
Permutation Combination
AB BA CA DA AB BC
AC BC CB DB AC BD
AD BD CD DC AD DC
Note that in permutation AB is different from BA but in combination AB is the same as BA.

Example 5.19 In a club containing 7 members a committee of 3 people is to be formed.

In how many ways can the committee be formed?

n n! 7 7!
Solution: 7C3 = n C r      7 C3     = 35
 r  r!(n  r )!  3  3!(7  3)!

Example 5.20 How many four-digit numbers can be formed with the 10 digits 0,1,2, . . ,9 if

A. Repetitions are allowed

B. Repetitions are allowed, and
C. The last digit must be zero & repetitions are not allowed.
Solution:
A. The first digit can be any one of 9 (since 0 is not allowed). The second, third and fourth
digits can be any one of 10. Then 9.10.10.10=9000 numbers can be formed.
B. The first digit can be any one of 9 & the remaining three can be chosen in 9 P3 ways.

Thus 9. 9 P3 = 4536 numbers can be formed.

C. The first digit can be chosen in 9 ways & the next two digits in 9 P2 ways. Thus 9. 8 P2 =
504 numbers can be formed.
5.3 Probability of an event
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 Definition: Probability is a numerical measure of the chance or likelihood that a particular
event will occur & it lies in the range from 0-1, inclusive. Probability is a building block of
inferential statistics.
Definition: Let E be an experiment. Let S be a sample space associated with E. With each
event A in S we associate a real number designated by P (A) and called the probability of A.
Generally probability can be divided into two
i) Subjective probability: - probability determined based on individual’s own judgment,
experience, information, belief . . . is called Subjective probability.
ii) Objective probability: - the probability of an event in a certain experiment based on
experimental evidence.

Basic approaches to probability

There are three different conceptual approaches to the study of probability theory.
These are:
1. The classical approach.
2. The frequentist approach.
3. The axiomatic approach.

1. Classical approach:
Definition: If there are n equally likely outcomes of an experiment, and out of the n outcomes
event A occur only k times the probability of the event A is denoted by P (A) is defined as
( )
p(A) = = =
( )

Note: Classical approach of measuring probability fails to answer for the following conditions:
 If total number of outcomes is infinite or if it is not possible to enumerate all elements of
the sample space.
 If each out come is not equally likely.

Example 5.21 Compute the probability of having two boys & one girl is a three child family
using the classical method, assuming boys & girls are equally likely.

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 A. Having two boys & a girl family.
B. Having three boys in a three-child family.
C. Having three girls in a three –child family.
D. Having two girls & one boy in three child family.
Solution
The sample space S or the experiment is
S= {BBB, BBG, BGB, BGG, GBB, GBG, GGB, GGG}
So n(S)=8
A. For the event A= ''two boys & a girl'' = {BBG,BGB,GBB} , we have n(A)=3,Since the
outcome are equally likely , the probability of A is P(A)= n(A)/n(S)=3/8 =0.375
B. Compute the probability of having three boys in a three-child family.
For the event B= ''three boys'' = {BBB} , we have n(B)=1,Since the outcome are equally
likely , the probability of B is P(B)= n(B)/n(S)=1/8 = 0.125
C. Compute the probability of having three girls in a three –child family.
For the event C= ''three girls'' = {GGG} , we have n(C)=1,Since the outcome are equally
likely , the probability of C is P(C)= n(C)/n(S)=1/8 = 0.125
D. Compute the probability of having two girls & one boy in three child family.
For the event D= ''two girls & one boy'' = {BGG, GBG,GGB}, we have n(A)=3,Since the
outcome are equally likely, the probability of D is P(D)= n(D)/n(S)=3/8 =0.375.

Example 5.22 A box of 80 candles consists of 30 defective and 50 non defective candles. If 10
of these candles are selected at random with out replacement, what is the
probability

a) All will be defective?

b) 6 will be non-defective?
c) All will be non-defective?
Solution
 80 
Total Selection:    N  n( S )
 10 
a) Let A be the event that all will be defective.
 30   50 
Total way in which A occur =   *    NA=n (A)
 10  0

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 ( )  30   50   80 
P (A) ) = =   *   /    0.00001825
( )
 10   0   10 
b) Let A be the event that 6 will be non defective.
 30   50 
Total way in which A occur =   *    NA=n (A)
4 6
( )  30   50   80 
P (A) ) = =   *   /    0.265
( )
4 6  10 
c) Let A be the event that all will be non defective.
 30   50 
Total way in which A occur =   *    NA=n (A)
 0   10 
( )  30   50   80 
P (A) = =   *   /    0.00624.
( )
 0   10   10 

2. The Frequentist Approach (Empirical Probability):

This approach to probability is based on relative frequencies.
Definition: Suppose we do again and again a certain experiment n times and let A be an event
of the experiment and let k be the number of times that event A occurs. Therefore the
probability of the event A happening in the long run is given by:

P(A) = =

In other words given a frequency distribution, the probability of an event (A) being

in a given class is P(A) =

Example 5.23 The national center for health statistics reported that of every 539 deaths in recent
years, 24 resulted that from automobile accident, 182 from cancer, and 353 from
other disease. What is the probability that particular death is due to an automobile
accident?

Solution
P (automobile) = death due to automobile /total death =24/539 = 0.445
The probability that particular death is due to an automobile accident is 0.445.
3. The axiomatic approach.

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Let E be a random experiment and S be a sample space associated with E. With each event A a
real number called the probability of A satisfies the following properties called axioms of
probability or postulates of probability.
1. 0 ( ) 1
2. P(S) =1, S is the sure/certain event.
3. If A1 and A2 are mutually exclusive events, the probability that one or the other occur equals
the sum of the two probabilities. i. e. P(A1 A2)=P(A1)+P(A2)
Similarly P(A1 A2 . . . An ) = P(A1)+P(A2) +. . . +P(An) = ∑
4. P (A') =1-P (A)
5. P (ø) =0, ø is the impossible event.

5.4 Some probability rules

Rule l: let A be an event and A' be the complement of A with respect to a given sample space
of an experiment, then P(A')=1-P(A)
Proof: let S be a sample space S=AUA' and, A and A' are mutually exclusive
A∩A' = ø
P(S) = P (AUA') = P (A') + P (A) and P(S) = 1
1= P (A') + P (A) => P (A') = 1-P (A)
Rule 2: let A and B are events of a sample space S, then
P (A' ∩ B) = P (B) - P (A ∩ B)
Proof: B =S ∩ B = (AUA') ∩ B = (A∩ B) U (A'∩ B)
If A∩B
P (A' ∩ B) = P(B) – P(A ∩ B).
Rule 3: Suppose A and B are two events of a sample space, then
P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)
Proof:
(AUB) = AU(A' ∩ B), A and A' ∩ B are disjoint sets
P(AU B) = p(A) + p(A' ∩ B) . . . .*
But we have already proved that P (A’ n B) = P (B) – P (A ∩ B)

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 Put this in equation *
P(A U B) = P(A) + P (B) – P (A ∩ B)

Example 5.24 A fair die is thrown twice. Calculate the probability that the sum of spots on the
face of the die that turn up is divisible by 2 or 3.

Solution
S={(1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(1,5),(1,6),(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(2,4),(2,5),(2,6),(3,1),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(3,5)
,(3,6),(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),(4,4),(4,5),(4,6),(5,1),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6),(6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,
4),(6,5),(6,6)}
This sample space has 6*6 =36 elements let A be the event that the sum of the spots on the die
is divisible by 2 and B be the event that the sum of the spots on the die is divisible by three,
then
A = {(1,1), (1,3), (1,5), (2,2), (2,4), (2,6), (3,1), (3,3), (3,5), (4,2), (4,4), (4,6), (5,1), (5,3),
(5,5), (6,2), (6,4), (6,6)}
B = {(1,2), (1,5), (2,1), (2,4), (3,3), (3,6), (4,2), (4,5), (5,1), (5,4), (6,3), (6,6)}
A∩B = {(1, 5), (2,4), (3,3), (4,2), (5,1), (6,6)}
P (A or B) = P (A U B)
= P (A) +P (B) – P (A∩B)
= 18/36 + 12/36 -6/36 = 24/36 = 2/3
5.5 Conditional Probability and Independence
5.5.1 Conditional Probability
Definition:

If A and B are two dependent events then the probability of event B occurring given that event
A has occurred denoted by P (B\A) read as probability of event B given that event A has
occurred is called the conditional probability of B given that A has occurred given by

P B  A
P B \ A 
P (A)

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 If A and B are events. Conditional probability of A given B means the probability of
occurrence of A when the event B has already happened.
It is denoted by P (A/B) and is defined by
P (A/B) = P(A ∩ B)/P (B), if P (B) 0
Conditional probability of B given A means the probability of occurrence of B when the event
A has already happened. It is denoted by P (B/A) and is defined
P (B/A) = P(A ∩ B)/P (A), if P (A) 0
P (A ∩ B) = P (A) P (B/A) = P (B) P (A/B).
Note: If A and B are independent events then P (B\A) must equal P (B) since the occurrence
of A should not affect P (B). Hence P (A  B) = P (A) . P (B) if A and B are independent
events and
P (A  B) = P (A) . P (B\A)
= P (B) . P (A\B) if A and B are dependent events

Example 5.25 Suppose there are 30 applicants for a job in a certain organization, which are
cross- classified by their sex and color.

Black White

Male 12 8

Female 4 6

Assume that each applicant is equally likely to be chosen for a job. What is the probability that
the applicant chosen is
a) black b) white c)male d) female e) male and black
f) female and black g) male and white h) female and white

Solution: Let B stands for the set of black applicant W stands for white applicant M stands for
male applicant and F stands for female applicant
:4 8
a) P (B) = = e) P (M  B) =30
30 5
8:6 7 4
b) P (W) = = f) P (F  B) =30
30 5
:8 8
c) P (M) = 30
=3 g) P (M  W) =30
4:6 6
d) P (F) = 30 = 3 h) P (F  W) =30

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Example 5.26 In the Example above find the probability that an applicant chosen is

a) male given that black is chosen b) male given that white is chosen
c) female given that black is chosen d) female given that white is chosen

P(MB) 12 8 12 3
 
Solution: a) P (M/B) = P (B) 30 15 16 4

P (M W) 8 15 4
 . 
b) P (M/W) = P (W) 30 7 7

P (FB) 4 15 1
 . 
c) P (F/B) = P (B) 30 8 4

P (F W) 6 15 3
 . 
d) P (F/W) = P (W) 30 7 7

5.5.2 Multiplication Law of Probability

If A and B are events in a sample space S, then
P (A ∩ B) = P (A) P (B/A), P (A) 0
P (A ∩ B) = P (B) P (A/B), P (B) 0
Where P (B/A) represents the conditional probability of B given A and P (A/B) represents the
conditional probability of A given B.
Note: Extension of multiplication law of probability for ‘n’ events A1, A2, …, An we have
P (A1 ∩ A2 ∩ …∩An) = P (A1) P (A2/A1) p (A3/A1 ∩ A2)…P(An/A1∩ A2 ∩ …∩An-1)

Example 5.27 A coin is tossed twice. If it is already known that the first coin has thrown a head,
what is the probability of getting two heads?

Solution:

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 S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}, A = the first shows a head = {HH, HT}, B= two heads occur ={HH}
P (B/A) = P(A ∩ B)/ P(A)
But A ∩ B ={HH}, P(A ∩ B) =1/4, P(A)=1/2, therefore, P (B/A) = P(A ∩ B)/ P(A) = 1/2

Example 5.28 Let A and B are events such that P (A U B) = ¾, P (A ∩ B) = ¼ and P(A' ) = 2/3.

Find P (A'/B)
Solution:
P(A') = 2/3  P (A) = 1- P(A') = 1-2/3 = 1/3
Now, P (A U B) = P (A) + P (B) - P (A ∩ B)
3/4 = 1/3 + P (B) – ¼
P(B) = 3/4 - 1/3 + ¼ = 2/3
Therefore, P (A/B) = P (A ∩ B)/P(B) = 3/8  P(A'/B) =1-P (A/B) = 1-3/8 =5/8.
5.5.3 Probability of Independent Event
Two events A and B are said to be independent if the occurrence of A has no bearing on
occurrence of B. That means knowledge of A has occurred given no information about the
occurrence of B. Two events, A and B, are said to be independent if P(A∩B) =P(A)P(B).
Suppose A and B are independent events with 0<P (A) <1 and 0<P (B) <1. The following
statements true:
i. A' and B' are independent, ii. A and B' are independent, iii. A' and B are independent
iv. P(B|A) = P(B), v. P(B|A') = P(B)

Example 5.29 A box contains four black and six white balls. What is the probability of getting
two black balls in drawing one after the other under the following conditions?

a. The first ball drawn is not replaced

b. The first ball drawn is replaced
Solution
Let A= first drawn ball is black
B= second drawn is black
Required P (A n B)
a. P (A ∩ B) = P (B/A) P(A) = (4/10) (3/9) = 2/15
b. P (A ∩ B) = P (A) P (B) = (4/10) (4/10) = 16/100 = 4/25.
5.6 Total probability and Bayes’ Theorem

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 Total probability:-If events B1, B2, …,& Bk constitute a partition of the sample space S &
p(Bi) ≠ 0 for i = 1,2,…,k, then for any event A in S, P(A)= ∑ p(Bi)p(A/Bi).

Example 5.30 In a factory, machines A1, A2, A3 manufactures 25%, 35%, 40% of the total
output respectively. Out of their products 5%, 4% & 2% are, respectively
defective. An item is drawn at random from the products is found to be defective.
What is the probability that defective item is produced by all machines?

So/n: p(A1) = 0.25, p(A2) = 0.35, p(A3) = 0.40, P(D/A1)= 0.05, P(D/A2) = 0.04, P(D/A3)
=0.02
P(D) = ∑ p(Ai)p(D/Ai) = p(A1) P(D/A1) + p(A2) P(D/A2) + p(A3) P(D/A3)
= (0.25) (0.05) + (0.35) (0.04)+ (0.40) (0.020) = 0.0345
Bayes’ Theorem:- If B1, B2, …,& Bk are events which make an exhaustive partition of the
sample space S, if A is any event in S, then the conditional probability of Bi given that A has
P ( Bi )  P( A / Bi )
already occurred is: P ( Bi / A)  k

 P( B )  P( A / B )
i
i i

Note: the denominator is the total probability

Example 5.31 Based on the above example, what is the probability that it was manufactured by
machine A1?

P ( A1 )  P ( D / A1 )
Sol/n:- P ( A1 / D )  k
= (0.25)(0.05)/0.0345 = 0.3623
 P( A )  P( D / A )
i
i i

ADDITIONAL EXAMPLES

Example 5.32 In rolling a regular die what is the probability of getting an even number on the
upper face?

Solution: When a regular die is rolled, the number that faces up can be any one of the six
equally likely out comes. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 and three of these are even.
Hence n (u) = 6 , n (E) = 3, where E = {2, 4, 6} and u = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, }
3 1

6 2
P (E) =0.5

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Example 5.33 Five cards bearing numerals 1, 3, 5, 7, and 9 are placed in a box and two are with
drawn at random. What is the probability that the sum of the numbers shown on
the cards drawn is

a) 4 b) 8 c) 16 d) an even number e) an odd number

Solution: U = {(1, 3), (1, 5), (1, 7), (1, 9), (3, 5) (3, 7), (3, 9), (5, 7), (5, 9), (7, 9)}
n(u) = 10
1 2 1
a) P (E1 )  b) P (E 2 )  c) P (E 3 ) 
10 10 10
d) P (E 4 )  1 e) P (E 5 )  0

Where E1 = {(1, 3)} E2 = {(1, 7) , (3, 5)} E3 = {(7, 9)} E4 = u and E5 = {}

Example 5.34 How many five-digit numerals can be written using the digits 1, 3, 5, 7 and 9 if no
digit is repeated in each numeral? If each numeral is equally likely to be chosen,
what is the probability that the number chosen: -

a) Is odd c) Has unit digit is 9 e) Less than 40,000

b) Is even d) Is greater than 50,000

Solution: The number of five digit numerals that could be written is P (5, 5) = 5! = 120
a) 1, since all the digit used to write the numerals are odd the unit digit is certainly odd
and thus all the five digit numerals are odd.
b) 0, since the unit digit can never be even, the first digit numeral can never be even, thus
it is an impossible event.

c) , since the number of the five digit numerals whose unit digit is 9 is 4! = 24 and the
5
4
probability of this event is = 5.
0
3
d) , since for the number to be greater than 50,000 the 10,000th digit has to be selected
5

only from 6, 7 or 9 and there after any of the numbers 1, 3, 5, 7 or 9 which was not
already selected can be selected once. Hence there are 3  4  3  2  1 = 72 different
7 3
numbers greater than 50,000. So the probability of his event is = 5.
0

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 e) , since there are 2  4  3  2  1 = 48 different five digit numerals less than 40,000.
5
48
So the probability of this event is = 5.
0

Example 5.35 From a jar containing 4 white, 3 red and 2 black balls all identical except color,
three balls are drawn at random. How many different out comes are there? What
is the probability that an out come consists of

a. 3 white balls f. 2 red and 1 black

b. 3 red balls g. 1 red and 2 black
c. 2 white and 1 red balls h. 1 one from each color
d. 2 red and 1 white balls i. 2 white and 1 black balls
e. 1 white and 1 red balls

Solution: Totally there are 9 balls. Hence the number of possible outcomes of drawing 3 balls
randomly is c (9, 3) = 84. Thus
c (4 , 3) 4 1
a. P (3W) =  
c (9 , 3) 84 21

c (3 , 3) 1
b. P (3R) = 
c (9 , 3) 84

c (4 , 2)  c (3 , 1) 6  3 18 3
c. P (2W , 1R) =   
c (9 , 3) 84 84 14

c (4 , 1)  c (3 , 2) 4  3 1
d. P (1W , 2R) =  
c (9 , 3) 84 7

c (4 , 1)  c (2 , 2) 4 1
e. P (1W , 2B) =  
c (9 , 3) 84 21

c (3 , 2)  c (2 , 1) 6 1
f. P (2R , 1B) =  
c (9 , 3) 84 14

g. P (1R , 2B) = c (3 , 1)  c (2 , 2)  3  1
c (9 , 3) 84 28

c (4 , 1)  c (3 , 1)  c (2 , 1) 432 2
h. P (1W , 1R , 1B) =  
c (9 , 3) 84 7

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 i. P (2W , 1B) = c (4 , 2)  c (2 , 1)  6  2  12  1
c (9 , 3) 84 84 7

Example 5.36 In tossing a fair 5-cent coin three times, what is the probability of achieving at
least one head in the three tosses?

Solution: U = (HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}. Let E be an event
consisting of no head i.e. E = {TTT} then E is an event consisting of at least one head.
1 1 7
Since P(E) = and P(E)  1 - P (E)  1 - 
8 8 8

Example 5.37 Suppose a family plan to have four children. What is the probability that not all
the children have the same sex if it is equally likely for a son or daughter to be
born?

Solution: n (u) = 16, let E be an event that the children are all sons or all daughters i.e.
2 2 14 7
E = {SSSS , DDDD} then P(E) = and P(E)  1 - P (E)  1 -  
16 16 16 8

Example 5.38 In rolling a pair of fair dice. Let E1 be an event consisting of prime number that
appears on the upper face of the first die and E2 be an event consisting of
composite number that appears on the upper face of the second die, then since the
occurrence of E1 does not affect the probability of the occurrence of E2, E1 and
E2 are said to be independent events.

Example 5.39 Suppose a box contains 10 balls all identical except in color where 6 of them are
white and 4 of them black. If one ball is drawn randomly and is obtained to be
white, without replacement if a second ball is drawn randomly then the
5 4
probability that a second ball to be white is 9 , to be black is 9. But the probability
6 4
that a first ball to be white was , to be black was . Hence the two events are
0 0

dependent events, since the occurrence of one affects the probability of the
occurrence of the other.

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 Note: If the balls were drawn with replacement, the two events would be independent since
the probabilities of a second event to occur would not be affected by the occurrence of the first.

Example 5.40 If 3 light bulbs are chosen at random from a dozen of bulbs of which 4 are
defective, what is the probability that

a) none is defective b) all defective

c) 1 defective and 2 non defective d) 2 defective and 1 non defective

Solution: there are c (12, 3) ways of choosing 3 bulbs from 12 i.e. 220
c (8 , 3) 56 14 c (4 , 3) 4 1
a)   b)  
220 220 55 220 220 55

c (4 ,1)  c (8 , 2) 4  28 28 c (4 , 2)  c (8 ,1) 12 12
c)   d)  
220 220 55 220 220 55

Example 5.41 Suppose from a box containing 7 white and 3 black balls, we draw 2 balls turn by
turn with out replacement. What is the probability of drawing 1 white and 1
black ball?

7 3 21
Solution: The probability of drawing 1st white and then 2nd black is   . The
10 9 90

probability of drawing 1st black and 2nd white is 3  7  21 . Hence the total probability of
10 9 90

drawing 1 white and 1 black is

21 21 42 7 c (7 ,1)  c (3 ,1) 73 7
|   or P(1w ,1b)   
90 90 90 15 c (10 , 2) 45 15

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 EXERCISE

1. A fair die is tossed once. What is the probability of getting?

a. Number 4?
b. An odd number?
c. Outcome of at least number 4?
d. Number 8?
2. In how many ways can 10 people be seated on a bench if only 4 seats are available?
3. A committee of 5 is formed by drawing lots from 8 boys and 6 girls. Find the probability
that the committee will consist of 2 boys and 3 girls.
4. A box contains 6 red, 4 white and 5 black balls. A man draws 4 balls from the box at
random. Find the probability that among the balls drawn there is at least one ball of each
color.
5. How many four-digit numbers can be formed with the 6 digits 1,2,. . .,6, if
a) Repetitions are allowed
b) Repetitions are not allowed.
6. The probabilities that A and B solve a given problem independently are 2/3 and 3/5
respectively. If both of them attempt the problem, find the probability that the problem
will be solved.
7. A bag contains 15 items of which 4 are defective. The items are selected at random one by
one and examined. The ones examined are not put back. What is the chance that 10th one
examined is the last defective?
8. A company has two machines M1 and M2. M1 produces 60% of its product and M2
produces 40% of its product. M1 produces 5% defective units and M2 produces 4%
defective units. A unit is selected at random from the whole product.
a) Find the probability that it is defective.
b) What is the probability that it was manufactured by machine M2.

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