Lecture.

13
Regression – definition – fitting of simple linear regression equation – testing
the significance of the regression coefficient

Regression
Regression is the functional relationship between two variables and of the two
variables one may represent cause and the other may represent effect. The variable
representing cause is known as independent variable and is denoted by X. The variable X
is also known as predictor variable or repressor. The variable representing effect is
known as dependent variable and is denoted by Y. Y is also known as predicted variable.
The relationship between the dependent and the independent variable may be expressed
as a function and such functional relationship is termed as regression. When there are
only two variables the functional relationship is known as simple regression and if the
relation between the two variables is a straight line I is known a simple linear regression.
When there are more than two variables and one of the variables is dependent upon
others, the functional relationship is known as multiple regression. The regression line is
of the form y=a+bx where a is a constant or intercept and b is the regression coefficient
or the slope. The values of ‘a’ and ‘b’ can be calculated by using the method of least
squares. An alternate method of calculating the values of a and b are by using the
formula:
The regression equation of y on x is given by y = a + bx

The regression coefficient of y on x is given by

and a= –b

The regression line indicates the average value of the dependent variable Y associated
with a particular value of independent variable X.

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Assumptions

1. The x’s are non-random or fixed constants

2. At each fixed value of X the corresponding values of Y have a normal distribution
about a mean.
3. For any given x, the variance of Y is same.
4. The values of y observed at different levels of x are completely independent.

Properties of Regression coefficients

1. The correlation coefficient is the geometric mean of the two regression
coefficients
2. Regression coefficients are independent of change of origin but not of scale.
3. If one regression coefficient is greater than unit, then the other must be less than
unit but not vice versa. ie. both the regression coefficients can be less than unity
but both cannot be greater than unity, ie. if b1>1 then b2<1 and if b2>1, then b1<1.
4. Also if one regression coefficient is positive the other must be positive (in this
case the correlation coefficient is the positive square root of the product of the two
regression coefficients) and if one regression coefficient is negative the other
must be negative (in this case the correlation coefficient is the negative square
root of the product of the two regression coefficients). ie.if b1>0, then b2>0 and if
b1<0, then b2<0.
5. If θ is the angle between the two regression lines then it is given by

tan θ

Testing the significance of regression co-efficient

To test the significance of the regression coefficient we can apply either a t test or
analysis of variance (F test). The ANOVA table for testing the regression coefficient will
be as follows:

Sources of variation d.f. SS MS F

Due to regression 1 SS(b) Sb 2 Sb 2 / Se 2

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Deviation from regression n-2 SS(Y)-SS(b) Se 2
Total n-1 SS(Y)

In case of t test the test statistic is given by

t = b / SE (b) where SE (b) = se2 / SS(X)

The regression analysis is useful in predicting the value of one variable from the
given values of another variable. Another use of regression analysis is to find out the
causal relationship between variables.

Uses of Regression
The regression analysis is useful in predicting the value of one variable from the
given value of another variable. Such predictions are useful when it is very difficult or
expensive to measure the dependent variable, Y. The other use of the regression analysis
is to find out the causal relationship between variables. Suppose we manipulate the
variable X and obtain a significant regression of variables Y on the variable X. Thus we
can say that there is a causal relationship between the variable X and Y. The causal
relationship between nitrogen content of soil and growth rate in a plant, or the dose of an
insecticide and mortality of the insect population may be established in this way.

Example 1
From a paddy field, 36 plants were selected at random. The length of panicles(x) and the
number of grains per panicle (y) of the selected plants were recorded. The results are
given below. Fit a regression line y on x. Also test the significance (or) regression
coefficient.
The length of panicles in cm (x) and the number of grains per panicle (y) of paddy plants.

S.No. Y X S.No. Y X S.No. Y X

1 95 22.4 13 143 24.5 25 112 22.9
2 109 23.3 14 127 23.6 26 131 23.9
3 133 24.1 15 92 21.1 27 147 24.8
4 132 24.3 16 88 21.4 28 90 21.2
5 136 23.5 17 99 23.4 29 110 22.2
6 116 22.3 18 129 23.4 30 106 22.7
7 126 23.9 19 91 21.6 31 127 23.0

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8 124 24.0 20 103 21.4 32 145 24.0
9 137 24.9 21 114 23.3 33 85 20.6
10 90 20.0 22 124 24.4 34 94 21.0
11 107 19.8 23 143 24.4 35 142 24.0
12 108 22.0 24 108 22.5 36 111 23.1

Null Hypothesis Ho: regression coefficient is not significant.

Alternative Hypothesis H1: regression coefficient is significant.

The regression line y on x is =a+ b

=a+ b
115.94 = a + (11.5837)(22.86)
a=115.94-264.8034
a=-148.8633
The fitted regression line is y =-148.8633+11.5837x

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Anova Table

Sources of d.f. SS MSS F

Variation
Regression 1 8950.8841 8950.8841 90.7093
Error 36-2=34 3355.0048 98.6766
Total 35 12305.8889

For t-test

Table Value:

t(n-2) d.f.=t34 d.f at 5% level=2.032

t >ttab. we reject Ho.

Hence t is significant.

Questions
1. When the correlation coefficient r = +1, then the two regression lines
a) are perpendicular to each other b) coincide
c) are parallel to each other d) none of these
Ans: coincide

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2. If one regression coefficient is greater than unity then the other must be
a) greater than unity b) equal to unity
c) less than unity d) none of these
Ans: less than unity

3. If the correlation between the two variables is positive the regression

coefficient will be positive.
Ans: True

4. The Dependent variable is also called as predicted variable.

Ans: True

5. Correlation coefficient is the geometric mean of two regression coefficients.

Ans: True

6. Regreesion gives the functional relationship between two variables.

Ans: True

7. What is meant by Cause and effect?

8. State the properties of regression coefficient.

9. From the following data, find the regression equation

∑X = 21, ∑Y = 20, ∑X2 = 91, ∑ XY = 74, n = 7
10. Explain how to fit the regression equation of y on x and test the significance of the
regression coefficient.