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5 views

11-12 Th Lecture

Uploaded by

Hayat Hyt
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Ministry of Higher Education

University of Khana-e-Noor
Faculty of computer science

•Subject: Discrete Mathematics


•Lecture: 11-12h
•Lecturer: Noorullah Ibrahimkhel
•Email: [email protected]

1
Basic Probability
Basic Probability Concepts

 Probability – the chance that an uncertain event


will occur (always between 0 and 1)

 Impossible Event – an event that has no


chance of occurring (probability = 0)

 Certain Event – an event that is sure to occur


(probability = 1)
Assessing Probability

There are 2 approaches to assessing the


probability of an uncertain event:
1. a priori -- based on prior knowledge of the process
X number of ways the event can occur
probability of occurrence  
Assuming
T total number of elementary outcomes
all
outcomes 2. empirical probability
are equally
likely number of ways the event can occur
probability of occurrence 
total number of elementary outcomes
Computing Probabilities

 The Probability of any Event A:

number of ways event A can occur X


P( A)  
total number of possible outcomes n
Example of a priori probability

Find the probability of selecting a face card (Jack,


Queen, or King) from a standard deck of 52 cards.

X number of face cards


Probability of Face Card  
n total number of cards

X 12 face cards 3
 
n 52 total cards 13
Example of empirical probability

Find the probability of selecting a male taking statistics


from the population described in the following table:

Taking Stats Not Taking Total


Stats
Male 84 145 229
Female 76 134 210
Total 160 279 439

number of males taking stats 84


Probability of male taking stats    0.191
total number of people 439
Events

Each possible outcome of a variable is an event.

 Simple event
 An event described by a single characteristic
 e.g., A red card from a deck of cards
 Joint event
 An event described by two or more characteristics
 e.g., An ace that is also red from a deck of cards
Sample Space
The Sample Space is the collection of all
possible events
e.g. All 6 faces of a die:

e.g. All 52 cards of a deck of cards:


Visualizing Events

 Contingency Tables
ace Not ace Total

Black 2 24 26
Red 2 24 26

Total 4 48 52

 Decision Trees Sample


2 Space
Sample
Space 24
Full Deck
of 52 Cards
2

24
Computing Probabilities

 The Probability of any Event A:

number of ways event A can occur X


P( A)  
total number of possible outcomes n
Definitions
Simple vs. Joint Probability

 Simple Probability refers to the probability of a


simple event. (also called marginal probability)
 ex. P(King)
 ex. P(Spade)

 Joint Probability refers to the probability of an


occurrence of two or more events (joint event).
 ex. P(King and Spade)
Mutually Exclusive Events

 Mutually exclusive events


 Events that cannot occur simultaneously

Example: Drawing one card from a deck of cards

A = queen of diamonds; B = queen of clubs

 Events A and B are mutually exclusive


Collectively Exhaustive Events
 Collectively exhaustive events
 One of the events must occur
 The set of events covers the entire sample space

example:
A = aces; B = black cards;
C = diamonds; D = hearts

 Events A, B, C and D are collectively exhaustive


(but not mutually exclusive – an ace may also be
a heart)
Marginal Probability Example

P(Ace)
2 2 4
 P( Ace and Re d)  P( Ace and Black)   
52 52 52

Color
Type Red Black Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52
Joint Probability Example

P(Red and Ace)


number of cards that are red and ace 2
 
total number of cards 52

Color
Type Red Black Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52
Computing Probabilities

 The Probability of an Event E:


number of successful event outcomes
P( E ) 
total number of possible outcomes in the sample space
X

T E.g., P( ) = 2/36
(There are 2 ways to get one 6 and the other 4)
 Each of the Outcomes in the Sample Space is
Equally Likely to Occur
Probability Summary So Far
 Probability is the numerical measure
of the likelihood that an event will 1 Certain
occur
 The probability of any event must be
between 0 and 1, inclusively
0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1 For any event A 0.5
 The sum of the probabilities of all
mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive events is 1
P(A)  P(B)  P(C)  1
0 Impossible
If A, B, and C are mutually exclusive and
collectively exhaustive

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