INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY ROORKEE

Water and Society (WRS-501)

Water Resources in Changing climate, Extreme weather
events and Disaster management
Prof. Mohit P. Mohanty
Assistant Professor

Department of Water Resources Development and Management, IIT Roorkee

1 and 3 September 2024
Weather

Weather refers to conditions like rain,

temperature and wind over hours to
days

• LOOK out the window now. What is

the weather like?

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Climate

Climate refers to average

weather conditions over a long
period of time (30+ years)

• THINK about what the

weather is normally like on
your birthday? - Is it
normally dry or wet / hot
or cold?

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Climate change
Climate change is a statistically
significant change in the state of
the climate (average weather)
that persists for an extended
period of time (decades or
longer)

• ASK an elder what the

weather was normally like 30
years ago? Has it changed?

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What causes climate change?

The Greenhouse Effect

• Sunlight passes through the atmosphere
to earth
• At earth’s surface it’s reflected back
through the atmosphere to space
• However! After it is reflected,
greenhouse gases can trap heat in the
atmosphere
• We call this process the greenhouse
effect; as it is similar to a greenhouse
• Greenhouse gases act like a big blanket
around the earth, trapping heat

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Greenhouse gases

• Greenhouse gases trap heat from the sun in

the atmosphere, after it is reflected from
earth
• Greenhouse gases refer to the gases that
absorb and emit radiant energy within the
thermal infrared range, which traps heat in
the atmosphere.
• Greenhouse gases occur naturally in the
atmosphere
• Without them, the earth would be very cold
– about minus 18°C ! All water on earth
would freeze, the oceans would turn to ice Fluorinated gases: hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs),
and life as we know it would not exist perfluorocarbon (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), and
nitrogen trifluoride (NF3)

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Water Vapor and Ozone
• Though water vapor (H2O) and ozone (O3) are technically greenhouse gases, climate
scientists don’t track their numbers because they aren't typically considered to be harmful.

• Water vapor, technically the most abundant greenhouse gas, only stays in the atmosphere
for a couple of days before it returns to the earth in the form of precipitation, such as rain
or snow.

• Ozone is another greenhouse gas that can be helpful or harmful, depending on where it is
in the atmosphere. In the part of the atmosphere known as the Ozone Layer, naturally
occurring ozone gas blocks harmful UV rays from the sun. Holes in the Ozone Layer are
areas where the ozone has thinned to the point that it can’t prevent as many UV rays from
reaching Earth.
• Ozone that lives lower in the atmosphere is generated by human activity in the form of
pollution or smog. High concentrations of ozone at this lower level can become a health
hazard.
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Human activity
• The Earth has always had greenhouse gases, and many
greenhouse gases are naturally occurring and don't
bother the planet when they're kept in the proper
proportions to maintain our greenhouse effect.
• However, when more greenhouse gases are in the
atmosphere than should be, they directly accelerate
global warming. This typically happens because of
human activity, especially since the most powerful
greenhouse gases are created artificially.
• Over the last 100 years, since the industrial revolution,
greenhouse gases have rapidly increased in the
atmosphere
• This is due to human activities which release
greenhouse gases from coal or diesel generators and
industry or pollution from factories contribute the most
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Global warming

• More greenhouse gases trap more heat in the

atmosphere, leading to global warming
• Since 1880, global temp has increased by
almost 1°C
• How much this rises depends on how much
more greenhouse gas is released
• Temp could rise by almost 5°C by 2100.
However, countries around the world agreed to
keep this below 2°C
• Humans have added so much greenhouse gas to
the atmosphere, that even if all emissions
stopped today, the planet would still continue
to warm for decades to come

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 Global GHG emission trends by sector and key years

Source: EDGAR - Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research

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• China is the biggest emitter at 26.4% of global
greenhouse gas emissions, followed by the
United States at 12.5%, India at 7.06%, and the
European Union at 7.03%.
• Most of the top 10 emitters have higher
emissions per person than the world average of
6.27 tCO2e per person. Among the top 10 total
greenhouse gas emitters, Canada and the
United States have the highest per capita
greenhouse gas emissions at 19.6 tCO2e per
person and 18.28 tCO2e per person,
respectively, while India has the lowest at 2.48
tCO2e per person. China’s per capita emissions
(9.06 tCO2e) continue to rise, surpassing those
of the European Union (7.56 tCO2e).
• Countries such as Qatar and Australia, while not
among the top 10 emitters, have higher per
capita emissions than most top emitters at
40.52 tCO2e per person and 23.10 tCO2e per
person, respectively.
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Scientists observe & measure all the factors that are known to
influence “Earth’s climate”

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Scientists apply that knowledge to a scaled-down,
computer simulation of the planet: a global climate model

Modelers represent Earth’s surface and

atmosphere as a virtual world made up of
interacting, three-dimensional boxes.

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Physical characteristics and processes
that occur in each box are cataloged

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Mathematical equations that represent the physical
characteristics and processes are entered for each box

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Equations are converted to computer
code and climate variables are set

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A supercomputer solves all the equations, passing results to
neighboring boxes and calculating the next set of initial conditions

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Models are tested and refined by simulating past climate
then checking how well the results match observations

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Models that successfully approximate past climate
are considered valid for modeling future scenarios

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Climate models project temperature increases
for various carbon dioxide emission scenarios

Studies suggest that a

further increase of only
2°F would lead to
severe, widespread, and
irreversible impacts on
Earth’s environment.1,2,3

IPCC models successfully

simulated climate
conditions from 1900 to
2000.

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Research groups around the world have developed
a range of respected climate models

Modeling groups also work

together, averaging results
from their models with other
models that used the same
initial conditions.

These multi-model results

are called “ensembles.”

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Models predict how global average temperatures Models attribute global warming mainly to human
would have changed due to natural forces only origins

Model predictions for natural & human forcings

Model predictions for natural forcings Model predictions for natural forcings
Observations relative to 1901-1950 average Observations relative to 1901-1950 average
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The pattern holds true on every inhabited continent

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 19 levels in 30km
atmosphere
2.5
lat 3.75
long

The Hadley
Centre 1.25
1.25
https://www.ipcc.ch/
third
coupled 20 levels
model - in ocean

HadCM3 Hadley Centre

One such climate model… -5km

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The Development of Climate models, Past, Present and Future
Mid 1970s Mid 1980s Early 1990s Late 1990s Present day Early 2000s

Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere

Land surface Land surface Land surface Land surface Land surface

Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice

Sulphate Sulphate Sulphate

aerosol aerosol aerosol
Non-sulphate Non-sulphate
aerosol aerosol
Carbon cycle Carbon cycle

Atmospheric
chemistry

Ocean & sea-ice Sulphur Non-sulphate

Off-line model cycle model aerosols
model Land carbon
development cycle model
Carbon
cycle model
Ocean carbon
Strengthening colours cycle model
denote improvements
in models Atmospheric Atmospheric
chemistry chemistry

Climate models → Earth System Models

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IPCC’s Assessment Reports
• Since 1988, the UN
Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) has
been pivotal in assessing
climate science and guiding
global responses to climate
change through its
assessment reports and
special publications.
• Last years’ Sixth Assessment
Report (AR6) underscores
the urgency of addressing
climate change, highlighting
the need to limit global
warming to 1.5 degrees
Celsius.

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Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)
The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) is the fifth in a series of such reports and was completed in 2014.

Key Projections/indications:
➢ Further warming will continue if emissions of greenhouse gases continue.
➢ The global surface temperature increase by the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5 °C relative to the
1850 to 1900 period for most scenarios and is likely to exceed 2.0 °C for many scenarios.
➢ With increases in the disparity between wet and dry regions and wet and dry seasons, the global water cycle
will change, with some regional exceptions.
➢ The oceans will continue to warm, with heat extending to the deep ocean, affecting circulation patterns.
➢ Global mean sea level will continue to rise at a rate very likely to exceed the rate of the past four decades
➢ Changes in climate will cause an increase in the rate of CO2 production. Increased uptake by the oceans will
increase the acidification of the oceans.
➢ Future surface temperatures will be largely determined by cumulative CO2, which means climate change will
continue even if CO2 emissions are stopped.
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Highlights of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

Source: Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

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 Highlights of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

Average IPCC AR5 climate model projections for 2081–2100

relative to 1986–2005, under low and high emission scenarios
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Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published the third installment of its
Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) on April 4, 2022.
The report prepared by the IPCC Working Group III (WG-III) focuses on the mitigation of climate
change, i.e., the solutions necessary to halt global warming.
Key Takeaways:
➢ Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were 54 percent higher in 2019 than they were in 1990,
but growth is slowing.
➢ Least developed countries emitted only 3.3 percent of global emissions in 2019.
➢ Abundant and affordable solutions exist across sectors including energy, buildings, and
transport, as well as individual behavioral changes.
➢ The impact on GDP would be negligible and the long-term benefits of cutting emissions
immediately would outweigh the initial costs.
➢ Finance falls short, especially in developing countries, but there is sufficient money in the
world to close this gap
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Highlights of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)

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Representative Concentration Pathways
RCP stands for ‘Representative Concentration Pathway’. They make predictions of how concentrations of greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere will change in the future as a result of human activities

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Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
• Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are
scenarios of projected socioeconomic global
changes up to 2100.
• They are used to derive greenhouse gas
emissions scenarios with different climate
policies.
• The SSPs provide narratives describing alternative
socio-economic developments.
• These storylines are a qualitative description of
logic relating elements of the narratives to each
other.
• The SSPs can be quantified with various
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), to explore
possible future pathways both with regard to
socioeconomic and climate pathways.
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Source: https://www.ipcc.ch/2024/08/02/ipcc-approves-outlines-of-the-first-two-reports-in-the-seventh-assessment-cycle/

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IPCC Special Report on “Climate Change and Cities” and Methodology
Report on “Inventories for Short-lived Climate Forcers”
Climate Change and Cities Inventories for Short-lived Climate Forcers
Chapter 1: Cities in the context of climate change: Short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) are air pollutants that
framing of the report can affect the climate and have a relatively short
Chapter 2: Cities in a changing climate: trends, atmospheric lifetime, such as ozone, methane, and
challenges and opportunities aerosols, hydrofluorocarbons, hydrochlorofluorocarbons,
aerosols, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, non-methane
Chapter 3: Actions and solutions to reduce urban risks
volatile organic compounds, sulfur dioxide, and ammonia.
and emissions SLCFs typically have atmospheric lifetimes shorter than
Chapter 4: How to facilitate and accelerate change around two decades.
Chapter 5: Solutions by city types and regions
Volume 1. General Guidance [Introduction, Data Collection, Uncertainties, Timeseries
consistency etc.,]
Volume 2. Energy Sector [Introduction, Stationary combustion, Mobile combustion,
Fugitive Emissions]
Volume 3. Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU) [Introduction, Mineral Industry,
Chemical Industry, Metal Industry
etc.,]
Volume 4. Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Uses (AFOLU Sector) [Introduction, Generic methodologies, Consistent
representation of land, Emissions from Livestock and Manure Management, Land use categories
Volume 5. Waste Sector [Introduction, Solid Waste Disposal, Biological Treatment of Solid Waste, Incineration and Open Burning
of Waste, Wastewater Treatment and Discharge etc.,]
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Climate change and water cycle

Connecting climate
change with
extremes, particularly
floods

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Climate Change and links with water resources- water stress and
extreme events
• Demand for water is increasing due to population growth and economic
development
• Freshwater quality would degrade by higher water temperatures, but this may be
offset in some regions by increased flows
• Climate Change is exacerbating a range of weather-related disturbances around the
world
• Climate change makes some disturbances more frequent
• Climate change makes some disturbances more intense
• These impact people around the world
• The same disturbances can have different impacts for different people

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Droughts
An extreme environmental condition that is characterized by an absence of
precipitation in the local and regional scales.
There are several different types of drought:
• Meteorological Drought - Below normal rainfall (shorter-term)
• Agricultural Drought - lack of soil moisture to support ag activities (shorter-term drought)
• Hydrologic Drought - lack of surface and subsurface water resources (longer-term drought)
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOSS OF SOIL MOISTURE

VERY LOW HUMIDITY VANISHING STREAMS, LAKES, AND WATER TABLES

What Makes Drought Unique

• SLOW ONSET
• DIVERSE IN LOCATION & DURATION
• DIFFICULT TO MEASURE THE SOCIETAL IMPACTS
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Drought Indices
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
• Developed in 1990s
• Can be produced for a variety of time periods,
depicting both short-term and long-term
conditions
• Based on precipitation over an accumulation
period compared to the station’s historical
distribution Statistical “unusualness” of a
period
• Values of -2 or less are extremely dry; +2 and
greater are extremely wet

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Drought Indices
Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)
• SPEI is a multiscale drought index similar to SPI,
which considers the impact of temperature on
climatic water balance, which is the difference
between precipitation and potential
evapotranspiration (P-PET)
• It is excellent for analyzing long-term drought
patterns and trends because it also takes the effects
of climate change into account. Overall, these
characteristics make the SPEI better drought index
for determining the severity of meteorological
drought.

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Drought Indices

Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)

• Developed in 1965 (first widely used soil
moisture model)
• Uses temperature and precipitation
departures to determine dryness
• Ranges from -4 (extreme drought) to +4
(extreme wet)
• Good for measuring long-term drought in
relatively uniform regions- Not good for
short-term drought / rapid changes

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Drought Atlas of India

https://indiadroughtatlas.in/#/map-viewer

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Flood statistics- Occurrences and Impacts
Assistant Professor
(May 2021-present)

Fig. Occurrence of various natural disasters during 1998-2017

Fig. Top 10 countries/territories in terms of absolute losses (billion US$) 1998-2017

Fig. Occurrence by disaster type 2019

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The Indian context!
• Second to Bangladesh in terms of flood damages
• Nearly 12% (40 million hectares out of 329 million hectares) is flood-prone (NDMA, 2008)
• Annually- 1600 people are affected with economic damages surpassing 18,050 million INR
• Between 2001 to 2015- About 19 million houses damaged, and 25,000 lives lost (Open Government Data, 2019)

Figure. Changes in the frequency of 1-day duration extreme flood events in the
near period (a) 2020–2059 and (b) far period 2060-2099, exceeding 20-year
return level based on the historic period (1966-2005) using the ensemble of five
GCMs for (a & b) RCP2.6 scenario, (c & d) RCP8.5 scenario.
Ali et al. (2019), Weather and Climate extremes

Identification of areas likely to be flooded is vital towards

quantifying flood risk, and developing appropriate resilience Figure. Occurrence rates of floods, percentage of flood-induced deaths, flood-affected population, and
flood-induced mortality across the globe (1975–2016).
mechanisms Hu et al. (2018), Science of the Total Environment

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Coastal environments- Multiple flood drivers and hazard/risk assessment
Riverine flooding due to extreme rainfall (monsoon)

Coastal flooding due to storm-tide

Climatological–hydrodynamic modeling indicates tropical cyclone (TC)–
induced coastal flooding, will worsen under climate change.

Coastal flooding due to rainfall (cyclonic)

Under high emissions, Coastal DEM indicates up to 630 M people live on

land below projected annual flood levels for 2100, and up to 340 M for
mid-century, versus roughly 250 M at present.
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Flood inundation modelling (FHM)
Past efforts, current status and future challenges

HEC-RAS [USACE], SOBEK [DELTARES], Accurate hydraulic description of rivers

FASTER [CU], Flood Modeller Pro 1D FHM which are predominantly 1-D in
solvers [CH2M Hill], MIKE 11/HYDRO behaviour.
[DHI], TUFLOW Classic 1D [ANUGA] 1D No detailed results on flood plain e.g.
(velocity field)
models
TU FLOW Classic 2D and FV [BMT
WBM], Flood Modeller Pro 2D solvers Detailed information on velocity,
[CH2M Hill], LIS FLOOD TELEMAC 2D 2D models depths etc. on flood plains.
[Electricite de France], CaMa-Flood Not suitable for larger areas and finer
[TU], LISFLOOD-FP [UB], MIKE 21 [DHI] resolutions.

1D 2D coupled Most accurate interpretation of flood

TUFLOW Classic [BMT WBM], Flood
Modeller Pro [CH2M Hill], LIS-FLOOD FP models inundation and hazard
Higher computation time and cost.
[UB], MIKE Flood [DHI]

DELFT 3D [DELTARES], MIKE 3 [DHI], Real time visualization of flood propagation

TELEMAC 3D [Electricite de France], FINEL 3D models Need of precise high resolution data sets
and sophisticated software
3D [Svasek Hydraulics]

Geomorphic classifiers, Microwave and High price of satellite products

Optical remote sensing, Empirical Remote sensing and GIS Sophisticated algorithms to derive flood
maps
models, Simple conceptual models

Abbreviations: ANUGA: Australian National University & Geoscience Australia, CU: Cardiff University; DHI: Danish Hydraulic Institute, USACE: United States Army
Corps of Engineers; TU: Tokyo University; UB: University of Bristol;
* Blue represents freely available and red represents the commercially available software
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Flood Modeling Framework
A complete three-way hydrodynamic flood modeling

Rainfall
1D river flow

River-overland flow
1. Overland flow
interaction (1D-2D)
2. River/channel flow
3. Sewer flow
2D overland flow

Sewer-overland flow
interaction (1D-2D)

Schematic diagram of a coastal urban catchment

1D sewer flow

Sewer -river interaction (1D-1D)

SW treatment plant
Tide-river interaction
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Changes in floodplain regimes over Canada due to climate
change impacts: Observations from CMIP6 models
Changes in flood inundation area |Changes in flood hazards |Changes in flood frequency
17 GCMs from CMIP6 consortium at SSP 4.5 & SSP 8.5
Historical (1980 to 2019) Near-future (2021-2060) Far-future (2061-2100)

Figure. 25 Major river basins in Canada

Mohanty, M. P., & Simonovic, S. P. (2021). Changes in floodplain regimes over Canada due to climate
change impacts: Observations from CMIP6 models. Science of The Total Environment, 148323.
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List of GCMs from CMIP6 consortium

Table. Description of comparison metrics to compare the GCM runoff

estimates with the observed runoff at RHBN stations

Performance metrics Equation Range and Optimal value

𝑛
Correlation Coefficient 𝑖=1(𝐺𝑖 − 𝐺 )(𝑂𝑖 − 𝑂) [-1 to +1]; 1
𝑛 𝑛
(CC) 𝑖=1(𝐺𝑖 − 𝐺 )2 𝑖=1(𝑂𝑖 − 𝑂 )2

𝑛
Bias 𝑖=1(𝐺𝑖 − 𝑂𝑖 ) (-∞ to +∞); 0
𝑁
𝑛
Mean Absolute Error 𝑖=1 𝐺𝑖 − 𝑂𝑖 [0 to +∞); 0
𝑁

Root Mean Square Error 𝑛 2

[0 to +∞); 0
𝑖=1 𝐺𝑖 − 𝑂𝑖
𝑁

*𝐺𝑖 and 𝑂𝑖 are GCM runoff estimate and observed runoff at RHBN
station for the ith day, and N is the runoff time-series.

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Figure. Set of 1 in 100-yr flood hazard maps for Canada during (a) Historical, (b) Near- Figure. Percentage change in the flood inundation extents over
future –SSP2 4.5, (c) Near-future –SSP5 8.5, (d) Far-future –SSP5 4.5, and (e) Far-future various drainage basins for 1 in 100-yr floods in the near-and far-
–SSP5 8.5. future.

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 Figure. Changes in the frequencies of historical 1 in 100-yr flooding in the
far-future for (a) SSP2 4.5, and (b) SSP5 8.5; and 1 in 200-yr flooding for (c)
SSP2 4.5, and (d) SSP5 8.5.

Figure. Percentage change of 1 in 100-yr flood hazards between historical and (a) Near-
future –SSP2 4.5, (b) Near-future –SSP5 8.5, (c) Far-future –SSP5 4.5, and (d) Far-future –
SSP5 8.5 periods.

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Web-based multi-hazard flood information systems
Past and ongoing efforts
WebFRIS: Web Flood Risk Information System Flood Map Viewer
“A first of its kind flood risk information system in India” “The first flood related information (historical and under climate
change) for entire Canada”

https://www.floodmapviewer.com/
Changes in flood inundation area |Changes in flood hazards |Changes in flood frequency
17 GCMs from CMIP6 consortium at SSP 4.5 & SSP 8.5
Historical (1980 to 2019) Near-future (2021-2060) Far-future (2061-2100)

A whopping 100,000 investigations and more than 11 million visitors within

A recent progress: a month from around the globe
http://manage.wr.iitr.ac.in/
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