Decision Science Answer Key
Decision Science Answer Key
Q1.
1. Define Probability.
Probability is a fundamental concept in mathematics that quantifies the
likelihood of an event occurring. It is defined as the ratio of the number of
favorable outcomes to the total number of possible outcomes in a given
situation. This value ranges from 0 to 1, where:
0 indicates that an event is impossible (it will not occur).
1 indicates that an event is certain (it will definitely occur).
∑ai=∑bj
where:
ai represents the total supply available at each source i
bj represents the total demand required at each destination j
In simpler terms, a balanced transportation problem
ensures that every unit of supply can be allocated to meet the
demand without any excess or shortfall. If this condition is not
met, the problem is classified as unbalanced, and
adjustments such as adding dummy supply or demand nodes
may be necessary to create a balanced scenario for solving
the problem effectively
Q2
1. Discuss the use of CPM & PERT in Project Management.
PERT is a statistical tool used primarily for projects where the duration of
activities is uncertain. It focuses on evaluating the time required to
complete various tasks by using probabilistic time estimates, which
include optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic durations. This method is
particularly useful in research and development projects where
uncertainty is prevalent.
CPM, on the other hand, is utilized for projects with well-defined activities
and known durations. It emphasizes cost management alongside time
management, making it suitable for repetitive tasks such as construction
projects. CPM helps identify critical tasks that directly impact the project's
timeline, allowing project managers to prioritize resources effectively.
Benefits of Using PERT and CPM
Both PERT and CPM offer unique advantages that can significantly
enhance project management:
Effective Task Scheduling: PERT aids in organizing tasks visually,
helping teams understand task sequences and dependencies. This
visual aspect promotes clarity among team members.
Timely Decision Making: Both methods facilitate informed decision-
making during project execution, helping to prevent delays. PERT
allows for scenario exploration while CPM identifies potential
uncertainties through its critical path analysis.
Coordination Among Departments: Utilizing both techniques
fosters better coordination among various departments involved in
a project, enhancing communication and collaboration.
Long-Term Planning: CPM assists in long-term planning by
identifying critical tasks that require focused attention, leading to
improved resource management and productivity.