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Loss of Load Expectation Calculation for Power Plant

Conference Paper · January 2019

DOI: 10.1049/cp.2019.0213

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 Loss of Load Expectation Calculation for Power Plant
Isa S. Qamber

Department of Electrical & Electronics Engineering,

University of Bahrain, P. O. Box 33831, Isa Town, Kingdom of Bahrain
Email: [email protected]

Keywords: LOLE, Smart Cities, Electric Load, Planning, Čepin [2] in his study focused on the LOLE for plant power
Design. as a function of time instead of nominal power. In his study is
carried out on a real power system model consists of twelve
Abstract power plants and one nuclear power plant. The study carried
out by replacing the plant by three wind power plants. The
The reliability study is one of the major factor study to wind power plants capacity is five times greater than the
design, operation and maintenance of power system. power of the nuclear power plant. This replacement carried
Therefore, the reliability indices are important to be out it concluded that the power system reliability decreased.
calculated. Based on the target of the study, the index
required is calculated. Therefore, in the present study, the Moghaddam et al [3] in their study presented the optimal
Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) is required to evaluate the design and energy management of hybrid systems including
system reliability. The LOLE is defined as the number of the Photovoltaic panels, wind turbine and fuel cell based on
days per year or the number of hours per year. The calculation hydrogen storage. The authors considered Loss of Energy
of LOLE needs to know the Forced Outage Rate of each Expected and Loss of Load Expected as reliability indices.
generating-unit. Finally, this will help for the smart cities that The authors conclude that the proposed methodology obtains
need to minimize the LOLE. the optimal decision variables with fast convergence, lower
cost and better values in different reliability indices. The
authors conclude also that the application of photovoltaic
1 Introduction panels is more economical than wind turbine system.

Athraa et al [4] studied and evaluated the generating system

The electric power system reliability requires a number of adequacy to satisfy the load demand. They [4] used the
indices to be determined; one of them is the Loss of Load disparity evolution genetic algorithm for reliability
expectation (LOLE). This index LOLE is helping to find out assessment of the required power system. The algorithm used
the required capacity to keep the electric power network to enhance the performance of the probability of mutation in a
stable and reliable. The LOLE represents the number of hours genetic algorithm. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the
per annum, where the expected loss of load that supply will used algorithm two systems are tested. The reliability indices
not meet the load demand. The LOLE is used to measure the estimated and the required results obtained.
security of supply. Most likely, the LOLE would be succeed
in achieving a reliability standard. In this case, the researchers Choi et al [5] in their study aimed to find a conversion
determine the amount of capacity that is needed to be function and a method to transform the LOLE using daily
installed. peak load curve into LOLE using hourly peak load. The
conversion done by the conversion function as variable of
capacity and a Forced Outage Rate (FOR). The proposed
2 Literature Review conversion applied to actual system, which is Korea Power
System. The authors conclude that it is difficult to set a
The reliability of the electric power generation splits into two standard reliability.
parts, adequacy and security. Zamani-Gargari et al [1] in their
study concentrates on the combination energy storage with Nikzad et al [6] in their study calculate the LOLE, which
wind power. This combination considered as a solution for simulated to evaluate the system reliability combining four
wind integration. The authors in their study [1] used copula companies. These companies with different number of
theory to generate correlated random variables to calculate the generating-units and different FOR. The LOLE calculated for
wind speed. In addition, they have calculated the probability different cases and the load level can directly effect of the
of wind farm and energy storage system. The reliability index system reliability.
is calculated using the Monte Carlo Simulation Method.
Finally the reliability of RBTS-test system (Roy Billinton Qamber [7] in his study concentrates on one of the reliability
Test System) consider the load fluctuation and failure rate for indices called Loss of Load Probability (LOLP). This index
the system. followed when the loss of load happens as the electric power
load exceeds the available generating capacity of the system. Where: P_Oj is the probability of Capacity Outage j
As a measure of the LOLP, it means how much in time the t_Oj is the time of Capacity Outage j (hour/Year)
load exceeds the available capacity of the system. In his
study, four power stations combined and considered to form
one power plant. The LOLP calculated for the plant under Table (3) Probabilities for the Power Station 2
five different loads. The LOLP calculated for the electric
power plant as 5.69x10-4. In the present study the index, Power
LOLE calculated under five different loads. Station (2) IN (MW) OUT(MW) Probability
2x120MW 240 0 0.9604
3. Methodology, Application and Results 120 120 0.0392
0 240 0.0004
Four power stations formed as an electric power system. The Σ=1
first power station has two generating-units and each unit has
75MW capacity. The second power station has two
generating-units and each unit has 120MW capacity. The Table (4) Probabilities for the Power Station 3
third station has only one generating-unit with 150MW
capacity and the fourth unit has only one generating-unit with Power
300MW capacity. These four power stations summarized in Station (3) IN (MW) OUT (MW) Probability
Table (1). 1x150MW 150 0 0.99
Table (1) Four Power Stations with their specifications 0 150 0.01
Σ=1
Number of Capacity of Each
Power Generating- Generating-Unit
Station Units (MW) FOR Table (5) Probabilities for the Power Station 4
1 2 75 0.03
Power
2 2 120 0.02
Station (4) IN (MW) OUT (MW) Probability
3 1 150 0.01
1x300MW 300 0 0.99
4 1 300 0.01
0 300 0.01
Each power station has a FOR, where this index is known Σ=1
regularly as unavailability of the generating-unit. The Forced
Outage Rates (FOR) is a basis for strategist modeling. The
impact of FOR changes on system LOLE. Generally, the FOR The four power stations combined and the probabilities are
defined as: calculated. The results summarized and illustrated in Table
FOR= (Forced Outage Hours)/(In Service Hours+Forced (6).
Outage Hours) (1)
After considering the loads demand of the power network, the
The considered four power stations studied, where each results are arranged in Table (7). Five loads assumed and
station has its states that is passing through and the considered. These five loads are 600MW, 495MW, 375MW,
probabilities calculated. The results of the four power stations 315MW and 150MW. The results obtained recorded in Table
are summarized and demonstrated in Tables 2, 3, 4 and 5; (7), where each average peak load is shown in Table (8) and
respectively. Fig. (1).

Table (2) Probabilities for the Power Station 1

Power
Station (1) IN (MW) OUT(MW) Probability
2x75MW 150 0 0.9409
75 75 0.0582
0 150 0.0009
Σ=1

The LOLE is calculated as:

LOLE= P_Oj t_Oj hour/Year (2) Fig. (1) Average Daily Peak Loads for One Year
Table (6) Probabilities for the four Power Stations Table (7) Loads assumed and their probabilities
calculated
Connection(s), IN (MW) OUT
(MW) Probability IN (MW) OUT (MW) Probability
150MW+240MW+150MW+
300MW(4) 0 0.885657917 840 0 0.885657917
75MW+240MW+150MW+300MW 75 0.054782964 765 75 0.054782964
150MW+120MW+150MW+300MW 120 0.036149303 720 120 0.036149303
(0MW+240MW+150MW+300MW) 150 0.000847159 690 150 0.009793199
(150MW+240MW+0MW+300MW) 150 0.00894604 645 195 0.002236039
75MW+120MW+150MW+300MW 195 0.002236039 615 225 0.000553363
75MW+240MW+0MW+300MW 225 0.000553363 600 240 0.00036887
150MW+0MW+150MW+300MW 240 0.00036887 570 270 0.000399722
(0MW+120MW+150MW+300MW) 270 3.45779E-05 540 300 0.008954597
(150MW+120MW+0MW+300MW) 270 0.000365144 525 315 2.28E-05
(0MW+240MW+0MW+300MW) 300 8.55716E-06 9.75E-03 2.81
(150MW+240MW+150MW+0MW) 300 0.00894604 495 345 2.26E-05
75MW+0MW+150MW+300MW 315 2.28E-05 465 375 5.53E-04
75MW+120MW+0MW+300MW 345 2.26E-05 450 390 4.08E-06
75MW+240MW+150MW+0MW 375 0.000553363 420 420 3.65E-04
(150MW+0MW+0MW+300MW) 390 3.73E-06 390 450 9.89E-05
(0MW+0MW+150MW+300MW) 390 3.52836E-07 1.04E-03 2.08
(150MW+120MW+150MW+0MW) 420 0.000365144 375 465 2.30E-07
(0MW+120MW+0MW+300MW) 420 3.49272E-07 345 495 2.26E-05
(0MW+240MW+150MW+0MW) 450 8.56E-06 2.28E-05 5.86E-02
(150MW+240MW+0MW+0MW) 450 9.0364E-05 315 525 5.59E-06
75MW+0MW+0MW+300MW 465 2.30E-07 300 540 3.73E-06
75MW+120MW+150MW+0MW 495 2.26E-05 270 570 4.04E-06
75MW+240MW+0MW+0MW 525 5.59E-06 240 600 8.64E-08
(150MW+0MW+150MW+0MW) 540 3.73E-06 225 615 2.30E-07
(0MW+0MW+0MW+300MW) 540 3.564E-09 195 645 2.28E-07
(150MW+120MW+0MW+0MW) 570 3.69E-06 1.39E-05 3.87E-02
(0MW+120MW+150MW+0MW) 570 3.49272E-07 150 690 4.12E-08
0MW+240MW+0MW+0MW 600 8.64E-08 120 720 3.53E-09
75MW+0MW+150MW+0MW 615 2.30E-07 75 765 2.33E-09
75MW+120MW+0MW+0MW 645 2.28E-07 0 840 3.60E-11
(150MW+0MW+0MW+0MW) 690 3.76E-08 4.71E-08 5.31E-05
(0MW+0MW+150MW+0MW) 690 3.564E-09 Σ = 4.98
0MW+120MW+0MW+0MW 720 3.53E-09
Table (8) Average Peak Loads with their period of times
75MW+0MW+0MW+0MW 765 2.33E-09
0MW+0MW+0MW+0MW 840 3.60E-11 Series Days hours Peak Load (MW)
1 12 288 600
The LOLE calculated for the electric power network as 4.98
2 83 1992 495
hours per Year. The amount of time the system might pass in
the fail state compared with the full period of time which is 3 107 2568 375
8760 hours is low, i.e. 0.0568%. Fig. (2) illustrates the 4 116 2784 315
distribution of each average peak load. 5 47 50 150
Σ = 8760
 separation unit with cryogenic energy storage”, Journal
of Energy Storage, pp. 116-124, (2018).
[2] M. Čepin, “Evaluation of the power system reliability if a
nuclear power plant is replaced with wind power
plants”, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, pp.
455-464, (2019).
[3] M. J. H. Moghaddam, A. Kalam, S. A. Nowdeh, A.
Ahmadi, M. Babanezhad, S. Saha, “Optimal sizing and
energy management of stand-alone hybrid
photovoltaic/wind system based on hydrogen storage
considering LOEE and LOLE reliability indices using
flower pollination algorithm“, Renewable Energy, pp.
1412-1434, (2019).
[4] A. A. Kadhem, N. I. Abdul-Wahab, I. Aris, J. Jasni, A. N.
Abdalla, “Reliability Assessment of Power Generation
Systems Using Intelligent Search Based on Disparity
Theory”, energies, 10, 343, (2017).
doi:10.3390/en10030343
Fig. (2) The distribution of each average peak load [5] W. Choi, Y. Lee, Y. Kim, J. Choi, “Dissimilarities of
Physical Meaning between Loss of Load indices based
on Load Curve Types”, IFAC Papers On Line 51-28, pp.
4 Conclusion 546–551, (2018).
[6] M. Nikzad, S. S. S. Farahani, M. B. Tabar, H. Tourang, B.
The smart city is a sustainable and efficient urban centre that Yousefpour, “Calculation of Generation System
provides a high quality of life. This means from the reliability Reliability Index: Loss of Load Expectation”, Life
point of you, reducing the LOLE is important to satisfy this Science Journal, Vol. 9, No. 4, pp. 3595-3599, (2012).
condition. The LOLE occurred when the system load exceeds [7] Isa S. Qamber, “Loss of Load Probability effect on Four
the available generating capacity. In the present study the Power Stations”, International Conference on Fourth
reliability index (LOLE) is calculated for the electric network Industrial Revolution: Industry 4.0, Transition &
that combing the considered four power stations and found Capacity of GCC Countries, 19-21 February 2019,
that the studied system might loss the expected load with Organized by Bahrain Society of Engineers, Gulf
0.0568% from the full considered period (the full period is International Exhibition Center, Gulf Hotel, Kingdom of
assumed as one year). Simulation results illustrated in the Bahrain, (2019).
Tables and Figures, where the LOLE calculated successfully
and the combination of the four power stations helps in
reducing the LOLE.
Loss of Load Expectation Calculation for
Power Plant
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Source: 2nd Smart Cities Symposium (SCS 2019), 2019 page (6 pp.)
• Conference: 2nd Smart Cities Symposium (SCS 2019)

References
[1] M. Zamani-Gargari, F. Kalavani, M. Abapour, B.
Mohammadi-Ivatloo, “Reliability assessment of
generating systems containing wind power and air

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