Ch-13 (Probability)

Number of favorable outcomes in 𝑬 𝒏(𝑬)

 𝑷(𝑬) = = 𝑷
Number of possible outcomes in 𝑺 𝒏(𝑺)
 𝐏(𝑨‾ ) = 𝟏 − 𝑷(𝑨)
 𝑷(𝑨 ∪ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) + 𝑷(𝑩) − 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩)
 If 𝑨 and 𝑩 are mutually exclusive events, then 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) = 𝟎.
 𝑷(𝑨‾ ∩ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑩) − 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩)
 Probability of occurrence of exactly one of 𝑨 and 𝑩 = 𝑷(𝑨) + 𝑷(𝑩) − 𝟐𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨 ∪ 𝑩) −
𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩)
 If 𝑨, 𝑩 and 𝑪 are three events, then

𝑷(𝑨 ∪ 𝑩 ∪ 𝑪) = 𝑷(𝑨) + 𝑷(𝑩) + 𝑷(𝑪) − 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) − 𝑷(𝑩 ∩ 𝑪) − 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑪) + 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 ∩ 𝑪)

 All about cards

The cards in each suit are ace, king, queen, jack and number cards 2 to 10 .

Kings, queens and jacks are called face cards.

 Conditional Probability: 𝑷(𝑨 ∣ 𝑩) = Probability of occurrence of Awhen 𝑩 has already

𝑷(𝑨∩𝑩)
occured = 𝑷(𝑩)

 𝑷(𝑨‾ ∣ 𝑩) = 𝟏 − 𝑷(𝑨 ∣ 𝑩)
 Multiplication Theorem on Probability: 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨). 𝑷(𝑩 ∣ 𝑨) = 𝑷(𝑩). 𝑷(𝑨 ∣ 𝑩)
 Independent events: If 𝑨 and 𝑩 are independent events, then 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) ∩ 𝑷(𝑩)
 If 𝑨 and 𝑩 are independent events, then 𝑷(𝑨 ∪ 𝑩) = 𝑷 (at least one of 𝑨 or 𝑩) = 𝟏 − 𝑷(𝑨 ‾ )𝑷(𝑩
‾)
 ‾ and 𝑩; 𝑨 and 𝑩
If 𝑨 and 𝑩 are independent events, then 𝑨 ‾;𝑨‾ and 𝑩‾ are all independent.
 Three events 𝑨, 𝑩 and 𝑪 are said to be mutually independent, if:
(a) 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) ∩ 𝑷(𝑩)
 (b) 𝑷(𝑩 ∩ 𝑪) = 𝑷(𝑩) ∩ 𝑷(𝑪)
(c) 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑪) = 𝑷(𝑨) ∩ 𝑷(𝑪)
(d) 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 ∩ 𝑪) = 𝑷(𝑨) ∩ 𝑷(𝑩) ∩ 𝑷(𝑪)
 Bayes' Theorem:

If 𝑬𝟏 , 𝑬𝟐 , 𝑬𝟑 , … 𝑬𝒏 are 𝒏 non empty events which constitute a partition of sample space 𝑺 i.e.
𝑬𝟏 , 𝑬𝟐 , 𝑬𝟑 , … 𝑬𝒏 are pair- wise disjoint and 𝑬𝟏 ∪ 𝑬𝟐 ∪ 𝑬𝟑 ∪ … ∪ 𝑬𝒏 = 𝑺 and 𝑨 is any event, then
𝑷(𝑬𝒊 )𝑷(𝑨∣𝑬𝒊 )
𝑷(𝑬𝒊 ∣ 𝑨) = ∑𝒏 ; where 𝒊 = 𝟏, 𝟐, 𝟑, … , 𝒏
𝒊=𝟏 𝑷(𝑬𝒊 )𝑷(𝑨∣𝑬𝒊 )

𝑷(𝑬𝟏 )𝑷(𝑨 ∣ 𝑬𝟏 ) 𝑷(𝑬𝟐 )𝑷(𝑨 ∣ 𝑬𝟐 )

𝑷(𝑬𝟏 ∣ 𝑨) = and 𝑷(𝑬𝟐 ∣ 𝑨) =
𝑷(𝑬𝟏 )𝑷(𝑨 ∣ 𝑬𝟏 ) + 𝑷(𝑬𝟐 )𝑷(𝑨 ∣ 𝑬𝟐 ) 𝑷(𝑬𝟏 )𝑷(𝑨 ∣ 𝑬𝟏 ) + 𝑷(𝑬𝟐 )𝑷(𝑨 ∣ 𝑬𝟐 )

 Probability Distribution:
 If a random variable 𝑿 takes values 𝒙𝟏 , 𝒙𝟐 , 𝒙𝟑 , … , 𝒙𝒏 with respective probabilities 𝒑𝟏 , 𝒑𝟐 , 𝒑𝟑 , … , 𝒑𝒏 ,
then
𝒏
𝑿: 𝒙𝟏 𝒙𝟐 𝒙𝟑 ….. 𝒙𝒏
known as probability distribution of 𝑿. Here, ∑ 𝒑𝒊 = 𝟏
𝑷(𝑿) 𝒑𝟏 𝒑𝟐 𝒑𝟑 …. 𝒑𝒏
𝒊=𝟏

 Mean (Expectation) / Expected Value of Random Variable: 𝑬(𝑿) = 𝝁 = ∑𝒏𝒊=𝟏 𝒙𝒊 𝒑𝒊

MULTIPLE CHOICE QUESTIONS

1
1. If P(A) = 2, P(B) = 0, then P (A/B) is

1
(a) 0 (b) 2 (c) not defined (d) 1.

2. If A and B are events such that P (A/B) = P (B/A), then

(a) A ⊂ B but A ≠ B (b) A = B (c) A ∩ B = ø (d) P (A) = P (B).

3. The probability of obtaining an even prime number on each die when a pair of dice is
rolled is
1 1 1
(a) 0 (b) 3 (c) 12 (d) 36

4. Two events A and B are said to be independent if:

(a) A and B are mutually exclusive (b) P (A’B’) = [1 – P(A)] [1 – P(B)]

 (c) P (A) = P (B) (d) P (A) + P (B) = 1.
4
5. Probability that A speaks truth is . A coin is tossed and reports that a head appears.
5
The probability that actually there was head is:
4 1 1 2
(a) 5 (b) 2 (c) 5 (d) 5

6. If A and B are two events such that A ⊂ B and P (B) ≠ 0, then which of the following is
𝑝(𝐵)
(a) P (A / B) = 𝑝(𝐴) (b) P (A/B) < P (A) (c) P (A/B) ≥ P (A) (d) None of these.

7. If A and B are two events such that P (A) ≠ 0 and P (B/A) = 1, then

(a) A ⊂ B (b) B ⊂ A (c) B = ø (d) A = ø

8. If P (A/B) > P (A), then which of the following is correct?

(a) P (B/A) < P (B) (b) P (A ∩ B) < P (A).P(B) (c) P (B/A) > P (B) (d) P (B/A) = P (B).

9. If A and B are any two events such that P (A) + P (B) – P (A and B) = P (A), then:

(a) P (B/A) = 1 (b) P (A/B) = 1 (c) P (B/A) = 0 (d) P (A/B) = 0

10. Suppose that two cards are drawn at random from a deck of cards. Let X be the
number of aces obtained. What is the value of E (X)?

37 5 1 2
(a) 221 (b) 13 (c) 13 (d) 13

ASSERTION-REASON BASED QUESTIONS (1 MARK EACH)

In the following questions a statement of assertion (A) is followed by a statement of reason (R) choose the correct
explanations of answer out of the following choices
(e) Both (A) and (R) are true and (R) is the correct explanation of (A).
(f) Both (A) and (R) are true and (R) is not the correct explanation of (A).
(g) (A) is true (R) is false.
(h) (A) is false (R) is true.

Q1) ASSERTION(A): Two coins are tossed simultaneously the probability of getting two heads
1
if it is known that at least one head comes up is 3.
𝐸
REASON(R): Let E and F be two events with a random experiment, then (𝐹 ) = (𝐸∩𝐹)/𝑃(𝐹)
Q2) ASSERTION (A): A family has two children’s the probability that both children are boys. If
1
it is known that the elder child is boy is3.
REASON(R): Let E and F be two events with a random experiment then
(𝐸U𝐹)=𝑃(𝐸)+𝑃(𝐹)−𝑃(𝐸∩𝐹).

Q3) ASSERTION (A): Mother father and son line up in a random for a family picture. If E: son
𝐸 1
on one end and F: father in middle, then (𝐹 )=2

𝐸
REASON(R): Let E and F be two events with a random experiment then (𝐹 ) = (𝐸∩𝐹/(𝐹)

SUBJECTIVE

1. Two integer are selected at random from integers 1 to 11. If the sum is even, find the probability that both
3
the numbers are odd. (Answer: 5 )

2. Find the probability of drawing a diamond card in each of the two consecutive draws from a well shuffled
1
pack of cards, if the card drawn is not replaced after the first draw. (Answer: 17 )
3 1 1 𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵̅) ̅
3. If 𝑃(𝐴) = , 𝑃(𝐵) = 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 4 , 𝐹𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝑃(𝐴̅⁄𝐵̅ )𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑃(𝐵̅⁄𝐴̅). (Answer: 𝑃(𝐴̅) )
8 2

4. An urn contains 5 white and 8 black balls. Two successive drawings of three balls at a time are made such
that the balls are not replaced before the second draw. Find the probability that the first draw gives 3 white
7
balls and second draw gives 3 black balls. (Answer: 429 )

5. To test the quality of electric bulbs produced in a factory, two bulbs are randomly selected from a large
sample without replacement. If either bulb is defective the entire lot is rejected. Suppose a sample of 200
197
bulbs contains 5 defective bulbs. Find the probability that the sample will be rejected. (Answer: 3980 )

6. The probability that a teacher will give an un-announced test during any class meeting is 1/5. If a student
9
is absent twice, what is the probability that he will miss at least one test? (Answer: )
25

7. A town has two fire extinguishing engines functioning independently the probability of availability of
each engine, when needed is 0.95. what is probability that
(i) Neither of them is available when needed (ii) An engine is available when needed
(iii) Exactly one engine is available when needed? (Answer: 0.095 )
8. A can hit a target 4 times in 5 shots, B can hit 3 times in 4 shots, and C, 2 times in 3 shots. Calculate the
probability that
 (i) A, B, C all may hit (ii) B, C may hit and A may not
(iii) Any two of A, B and C will hit the target (iv) None of them will hit the target.
1
(Answer: 60 )
2
9. If A and B are two independent events such that 𝑃(𝐴̅ ∩ 𝐵) = 15 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵̅ ) = 1/6, then find P(B).
1 4
(Answer: 6 𝑜𝑟 5 )

10. A speaks truth in 60% of the cases and B in 90% of the cases. In what percentage of cases are they likely
to (i) Contradict each other in stating the same fact.
58
(ii) Agree in stating the same fact? (Answer: )
100

11. A clerk was asked to male three report cards to three student. He addresses three envelopes but
unfortunately paid to attention to which report card be put in which envelope. What is the probability that
1
exactly one of the student received his or her own card? (Answer: 2 )

12. An unbiased coin is tossed. If the result is a head, a pair of unbiased dice is rolled and the sum of the
numbers obtained is noted. If the result is a tail, a card from a well shuffled pack of eleven cards
numbered 2, 3, 4, ……… 12 is picked and the number on the card is noted. What is the probability that
𝟏𝟗𝟑
the noted number is either 7 or 8? ANS:𝟕𝟗𝟐

13. A bag contains 3 red and 7 black. Two balls are selected at random one-by-one without replacement. If the
second selected balls happens to be red, what is the probability that the first selected ball is also red.
𝟐
ANS: 𝟗

14. A letter is known to have come either from LONDON or CLIFTON. On the envelope just two consecutive
letters. ON are visible. What is the probability that the latter has come from
𝟏𝟐 𝟓
(i) LONDON (ii) CLIFTON ANS: 𝟏𝟕 , 𝟏𝟕

15. In a group of 400 people, 160 are smokers and non-vegetarian, 100 are smokers and vegetarian and the
remaining are non-smokers and vegetarian. The probabilities of getting a special chest disease are 35%,
20% and 10% respectively. A person is chosen from the group at random and is found to be suffering
from the disease. What is the probability that the selected person is a smokers and non-vegetarian?
𝟑𝟔
ANS: 𝟔𝟏

16. Two cards are drawn without replacement from a well shuffled deck of 52 cards. Determine the
probability distribution of the number of face cards (i.e. jack, queen, king and ace).
 X: 0 1 2
P(X): 105/221 96/221 20/221

17. The probability distribution function of a random variable X is given by

𝑥𝑖 : 0 1 2
𝑝𝑖 : 3𝑐 3 4𝑐 − 10𝑐 2 5𝑐 − 1

Where c>0 Find: (i) c (ii) 𝑃(𝑋 < 2) (iii) 𝑃(1 < 𝑋 ≤ 2)

𝟏 𝟏 𝟐
Answer: (i) 𝟑 (ii) 𝟑 (iii) 𝟑

18. The random variable X can take only the values 0, 1, 2 given that 𝑃(𝑋 = 0) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 1) = 𝑝 and that
𝟏
𝐸(𝑋 2 ) = 𝐸(𝑋), find the value of p. 𝒑=𝟐

19. In a group of 30 scientists working on an experiment, 20 never commit error in their work and are
reporting results elaborately. Two scientists are selected at random from the group. Find the probability
distribution of the number of selected scientists who never commit error in the work and reporting. Also,
find the mean of the distribution. 1.33

Case Study Questions:

1. In an office three employees Vinay, Sonia and Iqbal process incoming copies of a
certain form. Vinay process 50% of the forms, Sonia processes 20% and Iqbal the
remaining 30% of the forms. Vinay has an error rate of 0.06, Sonia has an error rate of
0.04 and Iqbal has an error rate of 0.03.
 Based on the above information, answer the following questions.

(i) The conditional probability that an error is committed in processing given that Sonia processed the form
is:
(ii) The probability that Sonia processed the form and committed an error is:

(iii)The total probability of committing an error in processing the form is:

2. Between students of class XII of two schools A and B basketball match is organised.
For which, a team from each school is chosen, say T1 be the team of school A and T2 be
the team of school B. These teams have to play two games against each other. It is
assumed that the outcomes of the two games are independent. The probability
1 3 1
of T1 winning, rawmg an osrng a game against T2 are , and respectively.Each
2 10 5
team gets 2 points for a win, 1 point for a draw and 0 point for a loss in a game

Let X and Y denote the total points scored by team A and B respectively, after two
games.

Based on the above information, answer the following questions.

a) P (T2 winning a match against T1)

b) P (T2 drawing a match against T1)