Introduction to

Chapter 12 Probability Theory

The most important questions of life are, indeed, for the most part,
really only problems of probability
Pierre - Simon Laplace

12.1 Introduction
A gambler’s dispute in 1654 led to the creation of a mathematical
theory of probability by two famous French mathematicians, Blaise
Pascal and Pierre de Fermat. The fundamental principles of probability
theory were formulated by Pascal and Fermat for the first time. After an
extensive research, Laplace published his monumental work in 1812,
and laid the foundation to Probability theory. In statistics, the Bayesian
interpretation of probability was developed mainly by Laplace.
The topic of probability is seen in many facets of the modern world.
From its origin as a method of studying games, probability has involved
Laplace
in a powerful and widely applicable branch of mathematics. The uses of
1749-1827
probability range from the determination of life insurance premium, to the
prediction of election outcomes, the description of the behaviour of molecules in a gas. Its utility is
one good reason why the study of probability has found in the way into a school textbook.
The interpretation of the word ‘probability’ involves synonyms such as chance, possible, probably,
likely, odds, uncertainty, prevalence, risk, expectancy etc.
Our entire world is filled with uncertainty. We make decisions affected by uncertainty virtually
every day. In order to measure uncertainty, we turn to a branch of mathematics called theory of
probability. Probability is a measure of the likeliness that an event will occur.

Learning Objectives

On completion of this chapter, the students are expected to

• understand the classical theory of probability and axiomatic approach to probability.
• understand mutually exclusive, mutually inclusive and exhaustive events.
• understand the concepts of conditional probability and independent events.
• apply Bayes’ theorem.
• apply probability theory in day-to-day life.

12.2 Basic definitions

Before we study the theory of probability, let us recollect the definition of certain terms already
studied in earlier classes, which are frequently used.
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 EXPERIMENT

Deterministic Experiment Random Experiment

(Genetic determination) (Hitting the target)

Definition 12.1
An experiment is defined as a process for which its result is well defined.

Definition 12.2
Deterministic experiment is an experiment whose outcomes can be predicted with certain,
under ideal conditions.

Definition 12.3
A random experiment (or non-deterministic) is an experiment
(i) whose all possible outcomes are known in advance,
(ii) whose each outcome is not possible to predict in advance, and
(iii) can be repeated under identical conditions.
A die is ‘rolled’, a fair coin is ‘tossed’ are examples for random experiments.

Definition 12.4
A simple event (or elementary event or sample point) is the most basic possible outcome of
a random experiment and it cannot be decomposed further.

Definition 12.5
A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment. Each point in
sample space is an elementary event.

Illustration 12.1
(1) (i) If a die is rolled, then the sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
(ii) A coin is tossed, then the sample space S = { H , T }.
(2) (i) Suppose we toss a coin until a head is obtained. One cannot say in advance how many
tosses will be required, and so the sample space.
S = { H , TH , TTH , TTTH ,...} is an infinite set.
(ii) The sample space associated with the number of passengers waiting to buy train tickets
in counters is S = 0,1,2,... .
(3) (i) If the experiment consists of choosing a number randomly between 0 and 1, then the
sample space is S = { x: 0< x <1}.
(ii) The sample space for the life length (t in hours) of a tube light is
S = { t: 0 < t<1000}.

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 From (2) and (3), one need to distinguish between two types of infinite sets, where one type is
significantly ‘larger’ than the other. In particular, S in (2) is called countably infinite, while the S in
(3) is called uncountably infinite. The fact that one can list the elements of a countably infinite set
means that the set can be put in one-to-one correspondence with natural numbers  . On the other
hand, you cannot list the elements in uncountable set.
From the above example, one can understand that the sample space may consist of countable or
uncountable number of elementary events.

Number of sample points

or elementary events in a sample space

Countable number of Uncountable number of sample points

sample points S = {x : 0 < x < 1}

Finite number of sample points Countably Infinite number of sample points

S ={1, 2,3, 4,5, 6} S = {H , TH , TTH , TTTH ,...}

12.3 Finite sample space

In this section we restrict our sample spaces that have at most a finite number of points.
Types of events
Let us now define some of the important types of events, which are used frequently in this
chapter.
• Sure event or certain event • Impossible event
• Complementary event • Mutually exclusive events
• Mutually inclusive event • Exhaustive events
• Equally likely events • Independent events (defined after learning the concepts of
probability)
Definition 12.6
When the sample space is finite, any subset of the sample space is an event. That is, all
elements of the power set ( S )of the sample space are defined as events. An event is a collection
of sample points or elementary events.
The sample space S is called sure event or certain event. The null set ∅ in S is called an
impossible event.

Definition 12.7
For every event A, there corresponds another event A is called the complementary event to
A. It is also called the event ‘not A’.

Illustration 12.2
Suppose a sample space S is given by S = {1,2,3,4}.
Let the set of all possible subsets of S (the power set of S) be ( S ).
( S ) = {∅, {1}, {2}, {3}, {4}, {1, 2}, {1, 3}, {1, 4}, {2, 3}, {2, 4}, {3, 4},
{1, 2, 3}, {1, 2, 4}, {1, 3, 4}, {2, 3, 4}, {1, 2, 3, 4}}

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 (i) All the elements of ( S ) are events.
(ii) ∅ is an impossible event.
(iii) {1},{2},{3},{4} are the simple events or elementary events.
(iv) {1, 2, 3, 4} is a sure event or certain event.
Definition 12.8
Two events cannot occur simultaneously are mutually exclusive events. A1 , A2 , A3 ,..., Ak are
mutually exclusive means that, Ai ∩ Aj = ∅ , for i ≠ j.

Definition 12.9
Two events are mutually inclusive when they can both occur simultaneously.
A1 , A2 , A3 ,..., Ak are mutually inclusive means that, Ai ∩ Aj ≠ ∅ , for i ≠ j
Illustration 12.3
When we roll a die, the sample space S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}.
(i) Since {1, 3} ∩ {2, 4, 5, 6}=∅, t he events {1,3}and{2, 4,5,6}are mutually exclusive events.
(ii) The events {1,6,},{2,3,5} are mutually exclusive.
(iii) The events {2,3,5},{5,6} are mutually inclusive, since {2, 3, 5} ∩ {5, 6}= {5} ≠ ∅
Definition 12.10
A1 , A2 , A3 ,..., Ak are called exhaustive events if, A1 ∪ A2 ∪ A3 ∪  ∪ Ak = S

Definition 12.11
A1 , A2 , A3 ,..., Ak are called mutually exclusive and exhaustive events if,
(i)Ai ∩ Aj = ∅, for i ≠ j (ii) A1 ∪ A2 ∪ A3 ∪  ∪ Ak = S
Illustration 12.4
When a die is rolled, sample space S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}.
Some of the events are {2,3},{1,3,5},{4,6},{6} and{1,5}.
(i) Since {2, 3} ∪ {1, 3, 5} ∪ {4, 6} = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} = S (sample space), the events
{2,3},{1,3,5},{4,6} are exhaustive events.
(ii) Similarly {2,3},{4,6}and{1,5} are also exhaustive events.
(iii) {1,3,5},{4,6},{6} and{1,5} are not exhaustive events.
(Since {1, 3, 5} ∪ {4, 6} ∪ {6} ∪ {1, 5} ≠ S )
(iv) {2,3},{4,6},and{1,5} are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events, since
{2, 3}  {4, 6}  , {2, 3}  {1, 5}  ,{4, 6}  {1, 5}   and {2, 3} ∪ {4, 6} ∪ {1, 5} = S
Types of events associated with sample space are easy to visualize in terms of Venn diagrams,
as illustrated below.
S S S S
A B A B A
A

B B
A and B are A and B are A and B are A and B are
Mutually exclusive Mutually inclusive Mutually exclusive Mutually inclusive
and exhaustive and exhaustive
Definition 12.12
The events having the same chance of occurrences are called equally likely events.

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 Example for equally likely events: Suppose a fair die is rolled.

4 5
Number on the face 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 3 6 4
Chance of occurrence 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 1 2

Example for not equally likely events: A colour die is shown in figure is rolled.

Colour on the face

Chance of occurrence 1 1 1 2 1

Similarly, suppose if we toss a coin, the events of getting a head or a tail are equally likely.
Methods to find sample space
Illustration 12.5
Two coins are tossed, the sample space is
(i) S = {H , T } × {H , T } = {( H , H ), ( H , T ), (T , H ), (T , T )} or {HH , HT , TH , TT }
(ii) If a coin is tossed and a die is rolled simultaneously, then the sample space is
S = {H , T } × {1, 2,3, 4,5, 6} = {H 1, H 2, H 3, H 4, H 5, H 6, T 1, T 2, T 3, T 4, T 5, T 6} or
S = {( H ,1), ( H , 2), ( H ,3), ( H , 4), ( H ,5), ( H , 6), (T ,1), (T , 2), (T ,3), (T , 4), (T ,5), (T , 6)}.
Also one can interchange the order of outcomes of coin and die. The following table gives the
sample spaces for some random experiments.

Total
Random
Number of Sample space
Experiment
Outcomes

Tossing a fair coin 21 = 2 {H , T }

Tossing two coins 2
2 =4 {HH , HT , TH , TT }
Tossing three coins 23 = 8 {HHH , HHT , HTH , THH , HTT , THT , TTH , TTT }
Rolling fair die 61 = 6 {1, 2,3, 4, 5,6}

{(1,1) ,(1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6),

(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6),
Rolling
Two dice (3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6),
or 62 = 36
(4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6),
single die two times.
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6),
(6,1), (6,2),(6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)}

Heart ♥ A 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K Red in colour

Drawing a card
from a pack of 52 Diamond ♦ A 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K Red in colour
521 = 52
playing cards Spade ♠ A 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K Black in colour
Club ♣ A 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K Black in colour

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 Notations
Let A and B be two events.
(i) A ∪ B stands for the occurrence of A or B or both. Priori : Knowledge which
(ii) A ∩ B stands for the simultaneous occurrence of precedes from theoretical
deduction or making
A and B. A ∩ B can also be written as AB assumption. Not from
experience or observation
(iii) A or A′ or Ac stands for non-occurrence of A
(iv) ( A ∩ B ) stands for the occurrence of only A.

12.4 Probability
12.4.1 Classical definition (A priori) of probability
(Bernoulli’s principle of equally likely) Posteriori :
Earlier classes we have studied the frequency (A posteriori) Knowledge which
definition of probability and the problems were solved. Now precedes from
let us learn the fundamentals of the axiomatic approach to experience or
observation.
probability theory.
The basic assumption of underlying the classical theory is that the outcomes of a random
experiment are equally likely. If there are n exhaustive, mutually exclusive and equally likely
outcomes of an experiment and m of them are favorable to an event A, then the mathematical
m m
probability of A is defined as the ratio . In other words, P ( A ) = .
n n
Definition 12.13
Let S be the sample space associated with a random experiment and A be an event. Let n(S)
and n(A) be the number of elements of S and A respectively. Then the probability of the event A
is defined as
n( A) Number of cases favourable to A
P( A) = =
n( S ) Exhaustive number of cases in S

Every probabilistic model involves an underlying process is shown in the following figure.

P(A) P(C)
Probability

P(B)
Event A
Event
Random
Event C

experiment Event
Event B
Event A

Event B

Event C

Sample space S Collection of subsets

The classical definition of probability is limited in its application only to situations where there are
a finite number of possible outcomes. It mainly considered discrete events and its methods were mainly
combinatorial. This renders it inapplicable to some important random experiments, such as ‘tossing a coin
until a head appears’ which give rise to the possibility of infinite set of outcomes. Another limitation of the
classical definition was the condition that each possible outcome is ‘equally likely’.

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 These types of limitations in the classical definition of probability led to the evolution of the
modern definition of probability which is based on the concept of sets. It is known an axiomatic
approach.
The foundations of the Modern Probability theory were laid by Andrey
Nikolayevich Kolmogorov, a Russian mathematician who combined the notion
of sample space introduced by Richard von Mises, and measure theory and
presented his axiomatic system for probability theory in 1933. We introduce the
axiomatic approach proposed by A.N. Kolmogorov. Based on this, it is possible to
construct a logically perfect structure of the modern theory of probability theory.
The classical theory of probability is a particular case of axiomatic probability.
The axioms are a set of rules, which can be used to prove theorems of probability. A.N. Kolmogorov

12.4.2 Axiomatic approach to Probability

Axioms of probability
Let S be a finite sample space, let ( S ) be the class of events, and let P be a real valued
function defined on ( S ). Then P ( A) is called probability function of the event A , when the
following axioms are hold:
[P1 ] For any event A, P ( A) ≥ 0 (Non-negativity axiom)
[P2 ] For any two mutually exclusive events
P ( A ∪ B ) = P ( A) + P ( B ) (Additivity axiom)
[P3 ] For the certain event P( S ) = 1 (Normalization axiom)

Note 12.1
(i) 0 ≤ P( A) ≤ 1
(ii) If A1 , A2 , A3 ,..., An are mutually exclusive events in a sample space S, then
P( A1 ∪ A2 ∪ A3 ∪  ∪ An ) = P( A1 ) + P( A2 ) + P( A3 ) +  + P( An )

Theorems on finite probability spaces (without proof)
When the outcomes are equally likely Theorem 12.1 is applicable, else Theorem 12.2 is applicable.
Theorem 12.1
n( A)
Let S be a sample space and for any subset A of S, let P( A) = . Then P(A) satisfies axioms
n( S )
of probability [P1 ],[P2 ], and [P3 ] .
Theorem12.2
Let S be a finite sample space say S = {a1 , a2 , a3 ,..., an } . A finite probability space is obtained
by assigning to each point ai in S a real number pi , is called the probability of ai , satisfying the
following properties:
(i) Each pi ≥ 0 . (ii) The sum of the pi is 1, that is, ∑ pi = p1 + p2 + p3 +  + p1 = 1 .
If the probability P ( A), of an event A is defined as the sum of the probabilities of the points in A ,
then the function P ( A) satisfies the axioms of probability [P1 ],[P2 ], and [P3 ] .
Note: Sometimes the points in a finite sample space and their assigned probabilities are given
in the form of a table as follows:
Outcome a1 a2 a3 … an

Probability p1 p2 p 3 … pn

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 Here is an illustration of how to construct a probability law starting from some common sense
assumptions about a model.

Illustration 12.6
n( A)
(1) Let S = {1, 2, 3}. Suppose ( S )is the power set of S , and P( A) = .
n( S )
1 1 1
Then P ({1} ) = , P ({2} ) = , and P ({3} ) = ,
3 3 3
satisfies axioms of probability [P1 ],[P2 ], and [P3 ] . Here all the outcomes are equally likely.

(2) Let S = {1, 2,3} . Suppose ( S )is the power set of S ,
If the probability P( A), of an event A of S is defined as the sum of the probabilities of the
points in A ,
1 1 1
then P ({1} ) = , P ({2} ) = , P ({3} ) = ,
2 4 4
satisfy the axioms of probability [P1 ],[P2 ], and [P3 ] .

(3) Let S = {1, 2, 3} and ( S ) is the power set of S . If the probability P ( A), of an event A of
S is defined as the sum of the probabilities of the points in A ,
1 1
then P ({1} ) = 0, P ({2} ) = , and P ({3} ) = 1 − ,
2 2
satisfy the above axioms [P1 ],[P2 ], and [P3 ] .

In (2) and (3), the outcomes are not equally likely.
Note 12.2
Irrational numbers also can act as probabilities.

Classroom Activity: Each student to flip a coin10 times,

Number of times heads occur
Calculate: p=
10
1
Find the cumulative ratio of heads to tosses. As number of tosses increases p →
2

Example 12.1
If an experiment has exactly the three possible mutually exclusive outcomes A, B, and C,
check in each case whether the assignment of probability is permissible.
4 1 2
(i) P ( A) = , P( B) = , P (C ) = .
7 7 7
2 1 3
(ii) P( A) = , P( B) = , P(C ) = .
5 5 5
(iii) P( A) = 0.3 , P ( B ) = 0.9 , P (C ) = − 0.2.

1 1
(iv) P( A)  , P( B)  1  , P(C )  0.
3 3
(v) P( A) = 0.421 , P( B) = 0.527 P (C ) = 0.042.

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 Solution
Since the experiment has exactly the three possible mutually exclusive outcomes A, B
and C, they must be exhaustive events.
S
⇒ S = A∪ B ∪C
Therefore, by axioms of probability A

P ( A) ≥ 0, P ( B ) ≥ 0, P (C ) ≥ 0 and B
C
P ( A ∪ B ∪ C ) = P( A) + P( B) + P(C )  P  S   1

4 1 2
(i) Given that P ( A) = ≥ 0, P( B) =
≥ 0 , and P(C ) = ≥ 0
7 7 7
4 1 2
Also P ( S ) = P( A) + P( B) + P(C ) = + + =1
7 7 7
Therefore the assignment of probability is permissible.
2 1 3
(ii) Given that P( A) = ≥ 0,
P( B) = ≥ 0 , and P(C ) = ≥ 0
5 5 5
2 1 3 6
But P ( S ) = P ( A) + P ( B ) + P (C ) = + + = > 1
5 5 5 5
Therefore the assignment is not permissible.
(iii) Since P (C ) = − 0.2 is negative, the assignment is not permissible.
(iv) The assignment is permissible because
P( A) 
1
 0 , P( B)  1 
1
 0, and P(C )  0  0
3 3
1 1
P ( S ) = P ( A)  P ( B )  P (C )  1  0  1.
3 3
(v) Even though P( A) = 0.421 ≥ 0 , P ( B ) = 0.527 ≥ 0, and P (C ) = 0.042 ≥ 0 ,
the sum of the probability
P ( S ) = P( A) + P( B) + P(C ) = 0.421 + 0.527 + 0.042 = 0.990 < 1 .


Therefore, the assignment is not permissible.

Example 12.2
An integer is chosen at random from the first ten positive integers. Find the probability
that it is (i) an even number (ii) multiple of three.
Solution
The sample space is

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10} , n( S ) = 10
Let A be the event of choosing an even number and
B be the event of choosing an integer multiple of three.
A = {2, 4, 6, 8, 10}, n( A) = 5,
B = {3, 6, 9}, n( B) = 3

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 n( A) 5 1
P (choosing an even integer) = P=
( A) = = .
n( S ) 10 2

n( B ) 3
P (choosing an integer multiple of three) = P=
( B) = .
n( S ) 10

Example 12.3
Three coins are tossed simultaneously, what is the probability of getting (i) exactly one head
(ii) at least one head (iii) at most one head?
Solution:
Notice that three coins are tossed simultaneously = one coin is tossed three times.

The sample space S = { H , T } × { H , T } × { H , T }

S = {HHH , HHT , HTH , THH , HTT , THT , TTH , TTT }, n( S ) = 8
Let A be the event of getting exactly one head, B be the event of getting atleast one head and
C be the event of getting at most one head.
A = {HTT , THT , TTH }; n( A) = 3
B = {HTT , THT , TTH , HHT , HTH , THH , HHH }; n( B ) = 7
C = {TTT , HTT , THT , TTH }; n(C ) = 4 .
Therefore the required probabilities are
n ( A) 3
(i) P(A) = =
n(S ) 8

n ( B) 7
(ii) P(B) = =
n(S ) 8

n (C ) 4 1
(iii) P(C) = = = .
n(S ) 8 2

Note 12.3
When the number of elements in a sample space is considerably
small we can solve by finger-counting the elements in the events. But
when the number of elements is too large to count then combinatorics
helps us to solve the problems.
For the following problem, combinatorics is used to find the
number of elements in the sample space and the events.

Example 12.4
Suppose ten coins are tossed. Find the probability to get (i) exactly two heads (ii) at most
two heads (iii) at least two heads
Solution
Ten coins are tossed simultaneously one time = one coin is tossed 10 times
Let S the sample space, 10 times

That is S = {H , T } × {H , T } × {H , T } × × {H , T }

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 Let A be the event of getting exactly two heads,
B be the event of getting at most two heads, and
C be the event of getting at least two heads.
When ten coins are tossed, the number of elements in sample space is 2n = 210 = 1024

n( S ) = 1024
10
n( A) = C2 = 45
10 10 10
n( B ) = C0 + C1 + C2 = 1 + 10 + 45 = 56
10 10 10 10
n(C ) = C2 + C3 + C4 +  + C10
= n( S ) − (10 C0 +10 C1 ) = 1024 − 11 = 1013
The required probabilities are
n( A) 45
(i) P ( A) = =
n( S ) 1024
n( B ) 56 7
(ii) P( B) = = =
n( S ) 1024 128
n(C ) 1013
(iii) P(C ) = = .
n( S ) 1024

Example 12.5
Suppose a fair die is rolled. Find the probability of getting
(i) an even number (ii) multiple of three.

Solution
Let S be the sample space,
A be the event of getting an even number,
B be the event of getting multiple of three.
Therefore,

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
⇒ n (S ) = 6

A = {2, 4, 6} ⇒ n ( A) = 3

B = {3, 6} ⇒ n ( B) = 2
The required probabilities are
n( A) 3 1
(i) P (getting an even number) = P ( A) = = =
n( S ) 6 2

n( B ) 2 1
(ii) P (getting multiple of three) = P( B) = = = .
n( S ) 6 3

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 Example 12.6
When a pair of fair dice is rolled, what are the probabilities of getting the sum
(i) 7 (ii) 7 or 9 (iii) 7 or 12?
Solution
The sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} × {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
S = {(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6),
(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6),
(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6),
(4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6),
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6),
(6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)}
Number of possible outcomes = 62 = 36 = n( S )
Let A be the event of getting sum 7, B be the event of getting the sum 9 and C be the
event of getting sum 12. Then

A = {(1, 6), (2,5), (3, 4), (4,3), (5, 2), (6,1)} ⇒ n( A) = 6

B = {(3, 6), (4,5), (5, 4), (6,3)} ⇒ n( B ) = 4 S
A B
C = {(6, 6)} ⇒ n(C ) = 1 (1, 6), (2, 5), , 5)
,
, 6 ), (4 , 3)
(3, 4), (4, 3), (3 ), (6
4
(5, 2), (6, 1) (5,
(i) P (getting sum 7) = P(A) (6, 6)
C
n( A) 6 1
= = =
n( S ) 36 6
(ii) P (getting sum 7 or 9) = P( A or B ) = P ( A ∪ B )
= P( A) + P( B)
(Since A and B are mutually exclusive that is, A  B   )
n( A) n( B) 6 4 5
= + = + =
n( S ) n( S ) 36 36 18
(iii) P (getting sum 7 or 12) = P ( A or C ) = P ( A ∪ C )
= P( A) + P(C ) (since A and C are mutually exclusive)
n( A) n(C ) 6 1 7
= + = + = .
n( S ) n( S ) 36 36 36

Example 12.7
Three candidates X, Y, and Z are going to play in a chess competition to win
FIDE (World Chess Federation) cup this year. X is thrice as likely to win as Y
and Y is twice as likely as to win Z. Find the respective probability of X, Y and
Z to win the cup.
Solution
Let A, B, C be the event of winning FIDE cup respectively by X, Y, and Z this year.

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 Given that X is thrice as likely to win as Y.
A : B : : 3 : 1. (1)
Y is twice as likely as to win Z
B : C : : 2 : 1 (2)
From (1) and (2)
A:B:C:: 6:2:1
A = 6k, B =2k, C = k, where k is proportional constant.

6k 2
Probability to win the cup by X is P ( A) = =
9k 3
2k 2
Probability to win the cup by Y is P( B) = = and
9k 9
k 1
Probability to win the cup by Z is P (C ) = = .
9k 9

Example 12.8
Three letters are written to three different persons and addresses on 1
A gambler's dispute in 1654 led to the
creation of a mathematical theory of
probability by two famous French
mathematicians, Blaise Pascal and
Pierre de Fermat. The fundamental

2
principles ofThree candidates
probability X, Y,were
theory and Z are going to
formulated byplay in aand
Pascal chess competition
Fermat for the to win FIDE

three envelopes are also written. Without looking at the addresses, what
(World
first time. After Chess Federation)
an extensive research,cup this year.
X is thricehisas likely
Laplace published monumentalto win as Y and Y is
work in 1812,twiceandaslaidlikely as to win
foundation to Z. Find the

3
Probability respective
theory. In probability
Cup this year.
statistics, thetoX iswinthricetheas likely to win
cup.Three candidates
Bayesian interpretation as Y
of and Y
probabilityX,isY,twice
and asZ likely
are as to win Z.

is the probability that (i) exactly one letter goes to the right envelopes C
was developedgoing to play
mainly inLaplace.
Find
by athe
chess Acompetition
respective to
probability to win the
win FIDE
gambler's dispute (World
in 1654 ledChess
cup.Three Federation) X,
candidates
to the cupY, and Z are
creation of athismathematical
year. X isgoing
thrice toasplay
theory likely
ofin atochess
win as Y
competition to win
and Y is
probability by two famoustwice as likely
FIDE (WorldFrench ChessZ.Federation)
as to win Find cup this
the respective
mathematicians, Blaise year. probability
Pascal and to
X is thrice win the
as likely to win as Y and Y
cup.Three
Pierre de Fermat. The candidates
isfundamental
twice as X, likely
Y, andas Zto arewin Z. Find the

(ii) none of the letters go into the right envelopes? B

principles ofgoing to playrespective
probability in a chess
theory werecompetition
probability toto win the
win FIDE (World cup.ThreeChess candidates
Federation) X, cupY, and Z are
this year. X isgoingthricetoasplaylikely
in atochess
win as Y
competition to win
and Y is twiceFIDE as likely
(Worldas toChess
win Z.Federation)
Find cup this
the respective year.probability
X is thriceto win the
as likely to win as Y and Y

A
cup.this year.isX twice is thriceas as likely
likely astotowinwin Z. Find the
respective probability to win the cup.this
year. X is thrice as likely to win as Y and Y
is twic
Three candidates X, Y, and Z are going to
play in a chess competition to win FIDE

Solution
Let A, B, and C denote the envelopes and 1, 2, and 3 denote the
corresponding letters.
The different combination of letters put Outcomes
into the envelopes are shown in the table.
Let ci denote the outcomes of the events. c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
Let X be the event of putting the letters into 1 1 2 2 3 3
A
Envelope

the exactly only one right envelopes.

Let Y be the event of putting none of the B 2 3 1 3 1 2
letters into the right envelope.
C 3 2 3 1 2 1
S= {c1 , c2 , c3, c4 , c5 , c6 }, n ( S ) = 6
=X {=
c2 , c3 , c6 }, n( X ) 3
=Y {=
c4 , c5 } n(Y ) 2
3 1 2 1
P( X )= = P(Y )= = .
6 2 6 3

Example 12.9
x y
Let the matrix M =   . If x, y and z are chosen at random from the set { 1, 2,3} ,
z 1
and repetition is allowed ( i.e., x = y = z ) , what is the probability that the given matrix M is a
singular matrix?

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 Solution
If the given matrix M is singular, then

x y
= 0.
z 1
That is, x − yz = 0.

Hence the possible ways of selecting ( x, y, z ) are

{(1,1,1) , ( 2,1, 2 ) , ( 2, 2,1) , ( 3,1,3) , ( 3,3,1)} = A (say)

The number of favourable cases n( A) = 5

The total number of cases are n( S ) = 33 = 27

The probability of the given matrix is a singular matrix is
n( A) 5
p= = .
n( S ) 27

Example 12.10
For a sports meet, a winners’ stand comprising of three wooden
1
blocks is in the form as shown in figure. There are six different colours 2
available to choose from and three of the wooden blocks is to be painted 3
such that no two of them has the same colour. Find the probability that the
smallest block is to be painted in red, where red is one of the six colours.
Solution
Let S be the sample space and A be the event that the smallest block is to be painted in
red.
n( S ) = 6 P3 = 6 × 5 × 4 = 120 6 6 3
n( A) = 5 × 4 = 20 n(S) 6 5 4
n( A) 20 1 n(A) 5 4 Red
P( A) = = = .
n( S ) 120 6

12.4.3 ODDS
The word odds is frequently used in probability and statistics. Odds relate the chances in favour
of an event A to the chances against it. Suppose ‘a’ represents the number of ways that an event can
occur and ‘b’ represents the number of ways that the event can fail to occur.
The odds of an event A are a : b in favour of an event and

a
P ( A) = .
a+b

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 Further, it may be noted that the odds are a : b in favour of an event is the same as to say that the
odds are b : a against the event.

If the probability of an event is p , then the odds in favour of its occurrence are p to (1 − p ) and
the odds against its occurrence are (1 − p ) to p .
Illustration 12.7
(i) Suppose a die is rolled.
Let S be the sample space and A be the event of getting 5.

n( S ) = 6 , n( A) = 1 and n( A) = 5 .
It can also be interpreted as
1 5
Odds in favour of A is 1: 5 or , odds against A is 5 :1 or ,
5 1
n( A) 1 1 n( A)
and P( A) = = = = .
n( A) + n( A) 5 + 1 6 n( S )
3
(ii) Suppose B is an event such that odds in favour of B is 3:5, then P( B) =
8
11
(iii) Suppose C is an event such that odds against C is 4:11, then P(C ) = .
15
Example 12.11
A man has 2 ten rupee notes, 4 hundred rupee notes and 6 five hundred rupee notes in his
pocket. If 2 notes are taken at random, what are the odds in favour of both notes being of
hundred rupee denomination and also its probability?
Solution
Let S be the sample space and A be the event of taking 2 hundred rupee note.
Therefore, n( S ) = 12c2 = 66 , n( A) = 4c2 = 6 and n( A) = 66 − 6 = 60
Therefore, odds in favour of A is 6: 60
1
That is, odds in favour of A is 1: 10, and P( A) = .
11

EXERCISE 12.1
(1) An experiment has the four possible mutually exclusive and exhaustive outcomes A, B,
C, and D. Check whether the following assignments of probability are permissible.
(i) P(A) = 0.15, P(B) = 0.30, P(C) = 0.43, P(D)= 0.12
(ii) P(A) = 0.22, P(B) = 0.38, P(C) = 0. 16, P (D) = 0.34
2 3 1 1
(iii) P(A) = , P(B) = , P(C) = − , P(D) =
5 5 5 5
(2) If two coins are tossed simultaneously, then find the probability of getting
(i) one head and one tail (ii) atmost two tails
(3) Five mangoes and 4 apples are in a box. If two fruits are chosen at random, find the
probability that (i) one is a mango and the other is an apple (ii) both are of the same
variety.

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 (4) What is the chance that
(i) non-leap year       (ii) leap year should have fifty three Sundays?
(5) Eight coins are tossed once, find the probability of getting
(i) exactly two tails (ii) atleast two tails (iii) atmost two tails
(6) An integer is chosen at random from the first 100 positive integers. What is the probability
that the integer chosen is a prime or multiple of 8?
(7) A bag contains 7 red and 4 black balls, 3 balls are drawn at random.

Find the probability that (i) all are red (ii) one red and 2 black.
(8) A single card is drawn from a pack of 52 cards. What is the probability that
(i) the card is an ace or a king (ii) the card will be 6 or smaller
(iii) the card is either a queen or 9?
(9) A cricket club has 16 members, of whom only 5 can bowl. What is the probability that in a
team of 11 members at least 3 bowlers are selected?
(10) (i) The odds that the event A occurs is 5 to 7, find P(A).
2
(ii) Suppose P(B) = . Express the odds that the event B occurs.
5

12.5 Some basic Theorems on Probability

The problems solved in the last sections are related to mutually exclusive events. So we
have used the formula P( A or B ) = P ( A ∪ B ) = P( A) + P( B) . But when the events are mutually
inclusive, the additivity axioms counts ( A ∩ B ) twice. We have a separate formula for the events
when they are mutually inclusive.
In the development of probability theory, all the results are derived directly or indirectly
using only the axioms of probability. Here we derive some of the basic important theorems on
probability.
Theorem 12.3
The probability of the impossible event is zero. That is,

P(∅) = 0
Proof
Impossible event contains no sample point.
Therefore, S   = S
P( S  ) = P(S)
P( S )  P() = P( S ) (since S and ∅ are mutually exclusive)
P(∅) = 0

Example 12.12
Find the probability of getting the number 7, when a usual die is rolled.
Solution

The event of getting 7 is an impossible event. Thereforee, P  getting 7   0

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 Theorem 12.4
If A is the complementary event of A, then S

P( A) = 1 − P( A) A

Proof A

Let S be a sample space, we have

A∪ A = S
P( A ∪ A) = P(S)
P(A) + P ( A) = P(S) (since A and A are mutually exclusive)
= 1

P ( A ) = 1 − P ( A ) or P ( A ) = 1 − P ( A )

Example 12.13
Nine coins are tossed once, find the probability to get at least two heads.
Solution
Let S be the sample space and A be the event of getting at least two heads.
Therefore, the event A denotes, getting at most one head.

n( S ) = 29 = 512 , n( A) = 9C0 + 9C1 = 1 + 9 = 10

10 5
P ( A) = = 1

512 256 It is easier to calculate ∑ 9C

r =0
r

5 251
P ( A) = 1 − P ( A ) =1 −
9
=
256 256
than ∑ 9C
r =2
r

Theorem 12.5
If A and B are any two events and B is the complementary events of B , then

P( A ∩ B ) = P( A) − P( A ∩ B)
Proof
Clearly from the figure,
S
( A ∩ B ) ∪ ( A ∩ B) = A

P ( A ∩ B ) ∪ ( A ∩ B )  = P(A) A ∩ B A∩ B

P( A ∩ B ) + P ( A ∩ B ) = P(A) A B

(since ( A ∩ B ) and ( A ∩ B) are mutually exclusive)

P( A ∩ B ) = P( A) − P( A ∩ B)

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 Theorem 12.6 (Addition theorem on probability)
If A and B are any two events, then
S
P( A ∪ B) = P( A) + P( B) − P( A ∩ B)
Proof
From the diagram,
A ∪ B = ( A ∩ B) ∪ B A∩ B B

P( A ∪ B ) = P ( A ∩ B ) ∪ B  A

= P ( A  B )  P( B) (since ( A  B ) and B are mutually exclusive)

= [ P( A) − P( A ∩ B)] + P( B)
Therefore, P( A ∪ B ) = P( A) + P( B) − P( A ∩ B)

Note 12.4
The above theorem can be extended to any 3 events.
(i) P( A ∪ B ∪ C ) = {P( A) + P( B) + P(C )}
− {P ( A ∩ B ) + P ( B ∩ C ) + P (C ∩ A)} + P ( A ∩ B ∩ C )}
_______________
(ii) P( A ∪ B ∪ C ) = 1 − P( A ∪ B ∪ C ) = 1 − P( A ∩ B ∩ C )

Example 12.14
Given that P(A) = 0.52, P(B) = 0.43, and P( A ∩ B ) = 0.24, find

(i) P( A ∩ B ) (ii) P( A ∪ B ) (iii) P( A ∩ B ) (iv) P( A ∪ B ).

Solution
(i) P( A ∩ B ) = P ( A) − P( A ∩ B)
= 0.52 − 0.24 = 0.28

P( A ∩ B ) = 0.28.

(ii) P( A ∪ B ) = P( A) + P( B) − P( A ∩ B)
= 0.52 + 0.43 − 0.24

P ( A ∪ B ) = 0.71.

(iii) P( A ∩ B ) = P ( A ∪ B ) (By de Morgan's law)

= 1 − P( A ∪ B)
= 1 − 0.71 = 0.29.

(iv) P( A ∪ B ) = P ( A ∩ B ) (By de Morgan's law)

= 1 − P( A ∩ B) = 1 − 0.24
= 0.76.

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 Example 12.15
The probability that a girl, preparing for competitive examination will get a State
Government service is 0.12, the probability that she will get a Central Government job is 0.25,
and the probability that she will get both is 0.07. Find the probability that (i) she will get
atleast one of the two jobs (ii) she will get only one of the two jobs.
Solution
Let I be the event of getting State Government service and C be the event of getting
Central Government job.
Given that P(I) = 0.12, P(C) = 0.25, and P( I ∩ C ) = 0.07
(i)
P (at least one of the two jobs) = P ( I or C ) = P ( I ∪ C )
= P ( I ) + P (C ) − P ( I ∩ C )
= 0.12 + 0.25 − 0.07 = 0.30 S
(ii)
P(only one of the two jobs) = P[only I or only C]. I C

= P( I ∩ C ) + P ( I ∩ C) I I∩∩C
C II ∩∩CC
= {P( I ) − P ( I ∩ C )} + {P (C ) − P ( I ∩ C )}
= {0.12 − 0.07} + {0.25 − 0.07}
Only I Only C
= 0.23.

EXERCISE 12.2
3 1
(1) If A and B are mutually exclusive events P( A) = and P( B) = , then
8 8
find (i) P ( A ) (ii) P( A ∪ B ) (iii) P( A ∩ B ) (iv) P( A ∪ B )

(2) If A and B are two events associated with a random experiment for which
P( A) = 0.35, P( A or B) = 0.85, and P ( A and B ) = 0.15.

Find (i) P(only B) (ii) P( B ) (iii) P(only A)

(3) A die is thrown twice. Let A be the event, ‘First die shows 5’ and B be the event, ‘second
die shows 5’. Find P ( A ∪ B ) .
(4) The probability of an event A occurring is 0.5 and B occurring is 0.3. If A and B are
mutually exclusive events, then find the probability of

(i) P( A ∪ B ) (ii) P ( A ∩ B ) (iii) P ( A ∩ B ) .

(5) A town has 2 fire engines operating independently. The probability that a fire engine is
available when needed is 0.96.
(i) What is the probability that a fire engine is available when needed?
(ii) What is the probability that neither is available when needed?
(6) The probability that a new railway bridge will get an award for its design is 0.48, the
probability that it will get an award for the efficient use of materials is 0.36, and that it will
get both awards is 0.2. What is the probability, that (i) it will get at least one of the two
awards ( ii) it will get only one of the awards.

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 12.6 Conditional Probability
Illustration 12.8
Consider the following example to understand the concept of conditional probability.
Suppose a fair die is rolled once, then the sample space is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Now we ask
two questions
Q1: What is the probability o f getting an odd number which is greater than 2?
Q2: If the die shows an odd number, then what is the probability that it is greater than 2?
Case 1
The event of getting an odd number which is greater than 2 is {3, 5}. 1 2
Let P1 be the probability of getting an odd number which is greater than 2 3 4
5 6
n({3,5}) 2 1
P1 = = = .
n({1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}) 6 3
Case 2
‘If the die shows an odd number’ means we restrict our sample space S to a subset containing
only odd number.
1 2
That is, S 1 = {1, 3, 5}. Then our interest is to find the probability of the event getting
3 4
an odd number greater than 2. Let it be P2
5 6
n({3,5}) 2
P2 = =
n({ 1, 3, 5}) 3
In the above two cases the favourable events are the same, but the number of exhaustive
outcomes are different. In case 2, we observe that we have first imposed a condition on sample
space, then asked to find the probability. This type of probability is called conditional probability.

This can be written by using sample space as

n ({3, 5}) 2
n ({1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 }) 2
=P2 = 6 =
n({1, 3, 5}) 3 3
n({1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}) 6

Important note: Sample space is same for probability and conditional probability.
Definition 12.14
The conditional probability of an event B, assuming that the event A has already
happened is denoted by P ( B A ) and is defined as
P( A ∩ B)
P( B / A) = , provided P( A) ≠ 0
P( A)
Similarly,
P( A ∩ B)
P( A / B) = , provided P( B) ≠ 0
P( B)

Example 12.16
If P( A)  0.6, P( B)  0.5, and P( A  B)  0.2
Find (i) P( A / B) (ii) P( A / B) (iii) P( A / B).

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 Solution
Given that P( A)  0.6, P( B)  0.5, and P( A  B)  0.2
P ( A ∩ B) 0.2 2
(i) P( A / B) = = =
P ( B) 0.5 5

(ii) P( A / B) =
(
P A∩ B )
P ( B)

P ( B) − P ( A ∩ B)
=
P ( B)
0.5 − 0.2 0.3 3
= = = .
0.5 0.5 5

(iii) P( A / B) =
(
P A∩ B )
P B ( )
P ( A) − P ( A ∩ B )
=
1 − P ( B)
0.6 − 0.2 0.4 4
= = = .
1 − 0.5 0.5 5

Note 12.5
P( A / B ) + P( A / B ) = 1

Example 12.17
A die is rolled. If it shows an odd number, then find the probability of getting 5.

Solution
Sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
Let A be the event of die shows an odd number.
Let B be the event of getting 5.
Then, A={1, 3, 5}, B={5}, and A ∩ B = {5}.

3 1
Therefore, P( A) = and P( A  B) 
6 6
P (getting 5 / die shows an odd number) = P ( B / A)

1
P ( A ∩ B)
= =6
P ( A) 3
6
1
P ( B / A) = .
3

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 Rewriting the definition of conditional probability, we get the ‘Multiplication theorem
on probability’.
Theorem 12.7
(Multiplication theorem on probability)
The probability of the simultaneous happening of two events A and B is given by

P( A ∩ B) = P( A / B) P( B)
or
P( A ∩ B) = P( B / A) P( A)

12.6.1 Independent Events

Events are said to be independent if occurrence or non-occurrence of any one of the event
does not affect the probability of occurrence or non-occurrence of the other events.
Definition 12.15
Two events A and B are said to be independent if and only if

P( A ∩ B) = P( A) ⋅ P( B)

Note 12.6
(1) This definition is exactly equivalent to
P ( A / B ) = P ( A) if P ( B ) > 0
P ( B / A) = P ( B ) if P ( A) > 0
(2) The events A1 , A2 , A3 , ... ,An are mutually independent if
P( A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3 ∩  ∩ An ) = P( A1 ) ⋅ P( A2 ) ⋅  ⋅ P( An ).
Theorem 12.8
If A and B are independent then

(i) A and B are independent.

(ii) A and B are independent.

(iii) A and B are also independent.

Proof
(i) To prove A and B are independent:
Since A and B are independent
P ( A ∩ B ) = P( A) ⋅ ( PB)
To prove A and B are independent, we have to prove
P( A ∩ B ) = P( A) ⋅ P( B) .
By de Morgan’s law

P( A ∩ B) = P A ∪ B( )
= 1 − P ( A ∪ B )

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 = 1 − { P( A) + P( B) − P( A ∩ B)}

= 1 − P( A) − P( B) + P( A) ⋅ P ( B )

= (1 − P( A) )(1 − P( B) )

= P( A) ⋅ P( B)
Thus A and B are independent .
Similarly one can prove (ii) and (iii).

Example 12.18
Two cards are drawn from a pack of 52 cards in succession. Find the probability that
both are Jack when the first drawn card is (i) replaced (ii) not replaced
Solution
Let A be the event of drawing a Jack in the first draw,
B be the event of drawing a Jack in the second draw.
Case (i)
Card is replaced
n( A) = 4 (Jack)
n( B ) = 4 (Jack)
and n( S ) = 52 (Total)
Clearly the event A will not affect the probability of the occurrence of event B and
therefore A and B are independent.
P ( A ∩ B ) = P ( A) . P ( B )
4 4
P ( A) = , P( B) =
52 52
P ( A ∩ B ) = P ( A) P ( B )
4 4
= .
52 52
1
= .
169
Case (ii)
Card is not replaced
In the first draw, there are 4 Jacks and 52 cards in total. Since the Jack, drawn at the
first draw is not replaced, in the second draw there are only 3 Jacks and 51 cards in total.
Therefore the first event A affects the probability of the occurrence of the second event B.
Thus A and B are not independent. That is, they are dependent events.
Therefore, P( A ∩ B) = P(A) . P(B/A)
4
P(A) =
52

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 3
P(B/A) =
51
P ( A ∩ B ) = P(A) . P(B/A)
4 3
= .
52 51
1
= .
221

Example 12.19
A coin is tossed twice. Events E and F are defined as follows
E= Head on first toss, F = Head on second toss. Find
(i) P ( E ∪ F ) (ii) P( E / F )

(iii) P( E / F ) . (iv) Are the events E and F independent?

Solution

The sample space is S = {H , T } × {H , T }

S = {( H , H ), ( H , T ), (T , H ), (T , T )}
and E = {( H , H ), ( H , T )}
F = {( H , H ), (T , H )}
E ∪ F = {( H , H ), ( H , T ), (T , H )}

E ∩ F = {( H , H )}

 n( E ∪ F ) 
(i) P ( E ∪ F ) = P ( E ) + P ( F ) − P ( E ∩ F ) or  = 
 n( S ) 
2 2 1 3
= + − = .
4 4 4 4
P( E ∩ F ) (1 / 4) 1
=
(ii) P( E / F ) = =
P( F ) (2 / 4) 2

P( E ∩ F )
(iii) P( E / F ) =
P( F )

P(F ) − P(E ∩ F )
=
P( F )
(2 / 4) − (1 / 4)
=
( 2 / 4)
1
=
2
(iv) Are the events E and F independent?

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 1
We have P(E ∩ F ) =
4
2 2
P(E) = , P(F) =
4 4
2 2 1
P(E) P(F) = . =
4 4 4
⇒ P ( E ∩ F ) = P(E) . P(F)
Therefore E and F are independent events.

Note 12.7
Independent events is a property of probability but mutual exclusiveness is a set-theoretic
property. Therefore independent events can be identified by their probabilities and mutually
exclusive events can be identified by their events.
Theorem 12.9
Suppose A and B are two events, such that P(A) ≠ 0, P(B) ≠ 0.
(1) If A and B are mutually exclusive, they cannot be independent.
(2) If A and B are independent they cannot be mutually exclusive. (Without proof)
Example 12.20
If A and B are two independent events such that
P(A) = 0.4 and P( A ∪ B ) = 0.9. Find P(B).

Solution
P ( A ∪ B ) = P ( A) + P ( B) − P( A ∩ B )
P ( A ∪ B ) = P ( A) + P ( B ) − P ( A).P ( B ) (since A and B are independent)
That is, 0.9 = 0.4 + P( B ) − (0.4) P ( B )
0.9 − 0.4 = (1 − 0.4) P ( B )
5
Therefore, P( B) = .
6

Example 12.21
An anti-aircraft gun can take a maximum of four shots
at an enemy plane moving away from it. The probability of
hitting the plane in the first, second, third, and fourth shot are
respectively 0.2, 0.4, 0.2 and 0.1. Find the probability that the
gun hits the plane.
Solution
Let H1 , H 2, H 3 and H 4 be the events of hitting the plane
by the anti-aircraft gun in the first second, third and fourth shot respectively.
Let H be the event that anti-aircraft gun hits the plane. Therefore H is the event that the
plane is not shot down. Given that
P ( H1 ) = 0.2 ⇒ P( H1 ) = 1 − P( H1 ) = 0.8

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 P ( H 2 ) = 0.4 ⇒ P( H 2 ) = 1 − P( H 2 ) = 0.6

P ( H 3 ) = 0.2 ⇒ P( H 3 ) = 1 − P( H 3 ) = 0.8

P ( H 4 ) = 0.1 ⇒ P( H 4 ) = 1 − P( H 4 ) = 0.9
The probability that the gun hits the plane is

__________________________
P( H ) =1 − P ( H ) = 1 − P ( H1 ∪ H 2 ∪ H 3 ∪ H 4 )

 __ __ __ __

= 1 − P  H1 ∩ H 2 ∩ H 3 ∩ H 4 
 
= 1 − P ( H1 ) P ( H 2 ) P ( H 3 ) P ( H 4 )

= 1 − ( 0.8 )( 0.6 )( 0.8 )( 0.9 ) = 1 − 0.3456

P ( H ) = 0.6544

Example 12.22
X speaks truth in 70 percent of cases, and Y in 90 percent of cases. What is the probability
that they likely to contradict each other in stating the same fact?
Solution
Let A be the event of X speaks the truth, B be the event of Y speaks the truth
∴ A is the event of X not speaking the truth and B is the event of Y not speaking
the truth.
Let C be the event that they will contradict each other.
Given that

P(A) = 0.70 ⇒ P( A ) = 1 − P( A) = 0.30 S

A B
P(B) = 0.90 ⇒ P ( B ) = 1 − P ( B ) = 0.10
A∩ B
C = (A speaks truth and B does not speak truth or B speaks truth IA∩∩C
B
I ∩C
and A does not speak truth)
C = [( A ∩ B) ∪ ( A ∩ B)] (see figure) Only A Only B
since ( A  B) and ( A  B) are mutually exclusive,
P(C) = P ( A ∩ B ) + P ( A ∩ B )
= P ( A) P ( B ) + P ( A) P ( B )
(Since A, B are independent event, A, B are also independent events)
= (0.70) (0.10) + (0.30) (0.90)
= 0.070 + 0.270 =0.34
P(C) = 0.34.

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 Example 12.23
A main road in a City has 4 crossroads with traffic lights. Each traffic light opens or closes the
traffic with the probability of 0.4 and 0.6 respectively. Determine the probability of
(i) a car crossing the first crossroad without stopping    
(ii) a car crossing first two crossroads without stopping   
(iii) a car crossing all the crossroads, stopping at third cross.
(iv) a car crossing all the crossroads, stopping at exactly one cross.
Solution:
Let Ai be the event that the traffic light opens at i th cross, for i= 1, 2, 3, 4.

Let Bi be the event that the traffic light closes at i th cross, for i= 1, 2, 3, 4.
The traffic lights are all independent.

Therefore Ai and Bi are all independent events, for i= 1, 2, 3, 4.

Given that

P( Ai ) = 0.4, i = 1, 2, 3, 4

P( Bi ) = 0.6, i = 1, 2, 3, 4
(i) Probability of car crossing the first crossroad without stopping,

P( A1 ) = 0.4.
(ii) Probability of car crossing first two crossroads without stopping,

   P ( A1 ∩ A2 ) = P ( A1 A2 ) = ( 0.4 )( 0.4 ) = 0.16

(iii) Probability of car crossing all the crossroads, stopping at third cross

P( A1 ∩ A2 ∩ B3 ∩ A4 ) = P( A1 A2 B3 A4 ) = ( 0.4 )( 0.4 )( 0.6 )( 0.4 ) = 0.0384

(iv) Probability of car crossing all the crossroads, stopping at exactly one of the crossroads is

P( B1 A2 A3 A4 ∪ A1 B 2 A3 A4 ∪ A1 A2 B3 A4 ∪ A1 A2 A3 B 4 )

= P( B1 A2 A3 A4 ) + P( A1 B 2 A3 A4 ) + P ( A1 A2 B3 A4 ) + P ( A1 A2 A3 B 4 )

= 4 ( 0.4 )( 0.4 )( 0.6 )( 0.4 ) = 4 ( 0.0384 ) = 0.1536

EXERCISE 12.3
(1) Can two events be mutually exclusive and independent simultaneously?
(2) If A and B are two events such that P (A ∪ B ) = 0.7, P (A ∩ B ) = 0.2,
and P(B) = 0.5, then show that A and B are independent.
(3) If A and B are two independent events such that P ( A ∪ B ) = 0.6, P(A) = 0.2, find P(B).
(4) If P(A) =0.5, P(B) =0.8 and P(B/A) = 0.8, find P(A / B) and P ( A ∪ B ) .
3 2
(5) If for two events A and B, P( A)  , P( B)  and A  B  S (sample space), find the
conditional probability P(A / B). 4 5

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 (6) A problem in Mathematics is given to three students whose chances of solving it are
1 1 1
, , and (i) What is the probability that the problem is solved? (ii) What is the probability
3 4 5
that exactly one of them will solve it?
(7) The probability that a car being filled with petrol will also need an oil change is 0.30; the
probability that it needs a new oil filter is 0.40; and the probability that both the oil and filter
need changing is 0.15.
(i) If the oil had to be changed, what is the probability that a new oil filter is needed?
(ii) If a new oil filter is needed, what is the probability that the oil has to be changed?
(8) One bag contains 5 white and 3 black balls. Another bag contains 4 white and 6 black
balls. If one ball is drawn from each bag, find the probability that (i) both are white (ii) both
are black (iii) one white and one black
(9) Two thirds of students in a class are boys and rest girls. It is known that the probability of a
girl getting a first grade is 0.85 and that of boys is 0.70. Find the probability that a student
chosen at random will get first grade marks.
(10) Given P(A) = 0.4 and P( A ∪ B) = 0.7. Find P(B) if
(i) A and B are mutually exclusive (ii) A and B are independent events
(iii) P(A / B) = 0.4 (iv) P(B / A) = 0.5
(11) A year is selected at random. What is the probability that
(i) it contains 53 Sundays (ii) it is a leap year which contains 53 Sundays
(12) Suppose the chances of hitting a target by a person X is 3 times in 4 shots, by Y is 4 times in
5 shots, and by Z is 2 times in 3 shots. They fire simultaneously exactly one time. What is the
probability that the target is damaged by exactly 2 hits?

12.7 Total Probability of an event

Theorem 12.10 (Total Probability of an event)
If A1 , A2 , A3 , ..., An are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events and B is any event in S
then P(B) is called the total probability of event B and
n
P( B) = P( A1 ).P( B / A1 ) + P( A2 ).P( B / A2 ) +  + P( An ).P( B / An ) = ∑ P( Ai ).P( B / Ai )
i =1

Proof A2 A3
Since B is any event in S, from the figure shown here
A3

.
A2

.
B
∩

B = ( A1 ∩ B ) ∪ ( A2 ∩ B ) ∪ ( A3 ∩ B ) ∪  ( An ∩ B ) . .
B

A1 A1 ∩ B
Since A1 , A2 , A3 ... An are mutually exclusive, A∩
i B
B

Ai
n∩

( A1 ∩ B ) , ( A2 ∩ B ) , ( A3 ∩ B ) ,  , ( An ∩ B ) are also mutually

A

An . ..
exclusive.
Therefore, B

P( B) = P ( A1 ∩ B ) ∪ ( A2 ∩ B ) ∪ ( A3 ∩ B ) ∪  ∪ ( An ∩ B ) 
P ( B ) = P ( A1 ∩ B ) + P ( A2 ∩ B ) + P ( A3 ∩ B ) +  + P ( An ∩ B )
n
P( B) = P( A1 ).P( B / A1 ) + P( A2 ).P( B / A2 ) +  + P( An ).P( B / An ) = ∑ P( Ai ).P( B / Ai ) .
i =1

The following problems are solved using the law of total probability of an event.
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 Example 12.24
Urn-I contains 8 red and 4 blue balls and urn-II contains 5 red and 10 blue balls. One
urn is chosen at random and two balls are drawn from it. Find the probability that both balls
are red.
Solution Red Blue
Let A1 be the event of selecting urn-I Total
balls balls
and A2 be the event of selecting urn-II.
Urn-I 8 4 12
Let B be the event of selecting 2 red
balls. Urn-II 5 10 15
We have to find the total probability of
event B . That is, P(B). Total 13 14 27
Clearly A1 and A2 are mutually exclusive
and exhaustive events.
We have S
A1
1 8c 14
P( A1 ) = , P ( B / A1 ) = 2 = A1  B
2 12c2 33
A2  B
1 5c2 2
P( A2 ) = , P ( B / A2 ) = = A2
2 15c 2 21
We know B

P(B) = P( A1 ) . P( B / A1 ) + P ( A2 ) . P ( B / A2 )

1 14 1 2 20
P(B) = . + . = .
2 33 2 21 77

Example 12.25
A factory has two machines I and II. Machine-I produces 40% of items of the output
and Machine-II produces 60% of the items. Further 4% of items produced by Machine-I are
defective and 5% produced by Machine-II are defective. If an item is drawn at random,
find the probability that it is a defective item. S
Solution A1

Let A1 be the event that the items are produced by Machine-I, A1  B

A2 be the event that items are produced by Machine-II. Let B be
A2  B
the event of drawing a defective item.
A2
We have to find the total probability of event B . That is, P(B).
Clearly A1 and A2 are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events. B

Therefore, P(B) = P( A1 ) . P( B / A1 ) + P ( A2 ) . P ( B / A2 )

We have P( A1 ) = 0.40, P( B / A1 ) = 0.04

P( A2 ) = 0.60, P( B / A2 ) =0.05

P(B) = P( A1 ) . P( B / A1 ) + P ( A2 ) . P ( B / A2 )

= ( 0.40 )( 0.04 ) + ( 0.60 )( 0.05)

= 0.046.

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 12.8 Bayes’ Theorem
Thomas Bayes was an English statistician, philosopher and Presbyterian minister who
is known for formulating a specific case of a theorem. Bayesian methods stem from the
principle of linking prior (before conducting experiment) A2 A3

A3
probability and conditional probability (likelihood) to .

A2

∩
.

B
∩
.

B
posterior (after conducting experiment) probability via A1 A1∩ B
1702-1761 Bayes’ rule. Bayesian probability is the name given to
A∩
i B

B
Ai

n∩
several related interpretations of probability as an amount An

A
. .
.
of epistemic confidence – the strength of beliefs, hypotheses etc., rather B
than a frequency.

Theorem 12.11 (Bayes’ Theorem)

If A1 , A2 , A3 , ..., An are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events such that
P(Ai) > 0, i = 1,2,3,…. n and B is any event in which P(B) > 0, then

P( Ai ) P ( B / Ai )
P( Ai / B) =
P( A1 ) P ( B / A1 ) + P ( A2 ) P ( B / A2 ) +  + P ( An ) P ( B / An )
Proof
By the law of total probability of B we have
P( B)  P( A1 )  P( B / A1 )  P( A2 )  P( B / A2 )    P( An )  P( B / An )
and by multiplication theorem P ( Ai ∩ B ) = P ( B Ai ) P ( Ai )
By the definition of conditional probability,
P ( Ai ∩ B )
P( Ai / B) =
P( B)
P  B Ai  P  Ai 
P( Ai / B) = (using formulae)
P ( A1 )  P ( B / A1 )  P ( A2 )  P ( B / A2 )    P ( An )  P ( B / An )
The above formula gives the relationship between P( Ai / B) and P( B / Ai )
Example 12.26
A factory has two machines I and II. Machine I produces 40% of items of the output
and Machine II produces 60% of the items. Further 4% of items produced by Machine I are
defective and 5% produced by Machine II are defective. An item is drawn at random. If the
drawn item is defective, find the probability that it was produced by Machine II.
(See the previous example, compare the questions). S
Solution A1
Let A1 be the event that the items are produced by A1  B
Machine-I, A2 be the event that items are produced by
Machine-II. Let B be the event of drawing a defective item. A2  B
Now we are asked to find the conditional probability A2

P( A2 B). Since A1 , A2 are mutually exclusive and exhaustive B

events, by Bayes’ theorem,
P( A2 ) P ( B / A2 )
P( A2 / B) =
P( A1 ) P ( B / A1 ) + P ( A2 ) P ( B / A2 )

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 We have,
P( A1 ) = 0.40, P( B / A1 ) = 0.04

P( A2 ) = 0.60, P( B / A2 ) = 0.05

P( A2 ) P ( B / A2 )
P( A2 / B) =
P( A1 ) P ( B / A1 ) + P ( A2 ) P ( B / A2 )

P( A2 / B) =
( 0.60 )( 0.05) =
15
.
( 0.40 )( 0.04 ) + ( 0.60 )( 0.05) 23

Example 12.27
A construction company employs 2 executive engineers. Engineer-1 does the work for 60% of
jobs of the company. Engineer-2 does the work for 40% of jobs of the company. It is known from
the past experience that the probability of an error when engineer-1 does the work is 0.03, whereas
the probability of an error in the work of engineer-2 is 0.04. Suppose a serious error occurs in the
work, which engineer would you guess did the work?
Solution
Let A1 and A2 be the events of job done by engineer-1 and S
engineer-2 of the company respectively. Let B be the event that the A1
error occurs in the work. A1  B
We have to find the conditional probability
A2  B
P( A1 / B) and P( A2 / B) to compare their errors in their work. A2
From the given information, we have
B
P( A1 ) = 0.60, P( B / A1 ) = 0.03
P ( A2 ) = 0.40, P( B / A2 ) = 0.04
A1 and A2 are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.
Applying Bayes’ theorem,

P ( A1 ) P ( B / A1 )
P( A1 / B) =
P ( A1 ) P ( B / A1 ) + P ( A2 ) P ( B / A2 )

=
( 0.60 )( 0.03)
( 0.60 )( 0.03) + ( 0.40 )( 0.04 )
9
P ( A1 / B) = .
17
P( A2 ) P ( B / A2 )
P( A2 / B) =
P( A1 ) P ( B / A1 ) + P ( A2 ) P ( B / A2 )

P( A2 / B) =
( 0.40 )( 0.04 )
( 0.60 )( 0.03) + ( 0.40 )( 0.04 )
8
P ( A2 / B) = .
17
Since P ( A1 / B ) > P ( A2 / B ) , the chance of error done by engineer-1 is greater than the chance
of error done by engineer-2. Therefore one may guess that the serious error would have been be
done by engineer-1.

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 Example 12.28
The chances of X, Y and Z becoming managers of a certain company are 4 : 2 : 3. The
probabilities that bonus scheme will be introduced if X, Y and Z become managers are 0.3,
0.5 and 0.4 respectively. If the bonus scheme has been introduced, what is the probability
that Z was appointed as the manager?
Solution S
Let A1, A2 and A3 be the events of X, Y and Z becoming managers A1
of the company respectively. Let B be the event that the bonus scheme B
A∩ B
will be introduced. A2 ∩ A
1

We have to find the conditional probability P( A3 / B). B

A3 ∩
2
A3
Since A1 , A2 and A3 are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events, B
applying Bayes’ theorem

P( A3 ) P( B / A3 )
P( A3 / B) =
We have P( A1 ) P( B / A1 ) + P( A2 ) P( B / A2 ) + P( A3 ) P( B / A3 )

4
P( A1 ) =, P ( B / A1 ) = 0.3
9
2
P( A2 ) = , P( B / A2 ) = 0.5
9
3
P( A3 ) = , P( B / A3 ) = 0.4
9
P( A3 ) P( B / A3 )
P( A3 / B) =
P( A1 ) P( B / A1 ) + P( A2 ) P( B / A2 ) + P( A3 ) P( B / A3 )

3
 9   0. 4 
P( A3 / B) =  
4 2 3
 9   0. 3    9   0. 5    9   0. 4 
     
12 6
= = .
34 17

Example 12.29
A consulting firm rents car from three agencies such that 50% from agency L, 30% from
agency M and 20% from agency N. If 90% of the cars from L, 70% of cars from M and 60%
of the cars from N are in good conditions (i) what is the probability that the firm will get
a car in good condition? (ii) if a car is in good condition, what is probability that it has
come from agency N?
Solution S
Let A1 , A2 , and A3 be the events that the cars are rented from
A1
G
the agencies L, M and N respectively. A1  G
A3 
Let G be the event of getting a car in good condition. A3
G
A2
We have to find A2
(i) the total probability of event G that is, P(G) G

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 (ii) find the conditional probability A3 given G that is, P( A3 / G )
We have

P( A1 ) = 0.50, P(G / A1 ) = 0.90

P( A2 ) = 0.30, P(G / A2 ) = 0.70

P( A3 ) = 0.20, P(G / A3 ) = 0.60.

(i) Since A1 , A2 and A3 are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events and G is an event in S,
then the total probability of event G is P(G).

P (G ) = P ( A1 ) P (G / A1 ) + P ( A2 ) P (G / A2 ) + P ( A3 ) P (G / A3 )

P(G) = ( 0.50 )( 0.90 ) + ( 0.30 )( 0.70 ) + ( 0.20 ) ( 0.60 )

P(G) = 0.78.

(ii) The conditional probability A3 given G is P ( A3 / G )

By Bayes’ theorem,

P ( A3 ) P (G / A3 )
P ( A3 / G ) =
P ( A1 ) P (G / A1 ) + P ( A2 ) P (G / A2 ) + P ( A3 ) P (G / A3 )

P ( A3 / G ) =
( 0.20 )( 0.60 )
( 0.50 )( 0.90 ) + ( 0.30 )( 0.70 ) + ( 0.20 ) ( 0.60 )
2
= .
13

EXERCISE 12.4
(1) A factory has two Machines-I and II. Machine-I produces 60% of items and
Machine-II produces 40% of the items of the total output. Further 2% of the items produced
by Machine-I are defective whereas 4% produced by Machine-II are defective. If an item
is drawn at random what is the probability that it is defective?
(2) There are two identical urns containing respectively 6 black and 4 red balls, 2 black and 2
red balls. An urn is chosen at random and a ball is drawn from it. (i) find the probability
that the ball is black (ii) if the ball is black, what is the probability that it is from the first
urn?
(3) A firm manufactures PVC pipes in three plants viz, X, Y and Z. The daily production
volumes from the three firms X, Y and Z are respectively 2000 units, 3000 units and 5000
units. It is known from the past experience that 3% of the output from plant X, 4% from
plant Y and 2% from plant Z are defective. A pipe is selected at random from a day’s total
production,
(i) find the probability that the selected pipe is a defective one.
(ii) if the selected pipe is a defective, then what is the probability that it was produced by
plant Y ?
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 (4) The chances of A, B and C becoming manager of a certain company are 5 : 3 : 2. The
probabilities that the office canteen will be improved i f A, B, and C become managers
are 0.4, 0.5 and 0.3 respectively. If the office canteen has been improved, what is the
probability that B was appointed as the manager?
(5) An advertising executive is studying television viewing habits of married men and women
during prime time hours. Based on the past viewing records he has determined that during
prime time wives are watching television 60% of the time. It has also been determined
that when the wife is watching television, 40% of the time the husband is also watching.
When the wife is not watching the television, 30% of the time the husband is watching the
television. Find the probability that (i) the husband is watching the television during the
prime time of television (ii) if the husband is watching the television, the
wife is also watching the television.

EXERCISE 12.5
Choose the correct or most suitable answer from the given four alternatives
(1) Four persons are selected at random from a group of 3 men, 2 women and 4 children. The
probability that exactly two of them are children is
3 10 1 10
(1) (2) (3) (4)
4 23 2 21
(2) A number is selected from the set {1, 2,3,..., 20} . The probability that the selected number
is divisible by 3 or 4 is
2 1 1 2
(1) (2) (3) (4)
5 8 2 3
(3) A, B, and C try to hit a target simultaneously but independently. Their respective probabilities
3 1 5
of hitting the target are , , . The probability that the target is hit by A or B but not by C is
4 2 8
21 7 9 7
(1) (2) (3) (4)
64 32 64 8
(4) If A and B are any two events, then the probability that exactly one of them occur is
(1) P( A ∪ B ) + P ( A ∪ B ) (2) P( A ∩ B ) + P ( A ∩ B )
(3) P( A ) + P( B ) − P( A ∩ B ) (4) P ( A) + P( B) + 2 P( A ∩ B)
1 1 1
(
(5) Let A and B be two events such that P A ∪ B = ) 6
, P ( A ∩ B) =
4
and P ( A ) = . Then
4
the events A and B are
(1) Equally likely but not independent (2) Independent but not equally likely
(3) Independent and equally likely (4) Mutually inclusive and dependent
(6) Two items are chosen from a lot containing twelve items of which four are defective, then the
probability that at least one of the item is defective
19 17 23 13
(1) (2) (3) (4)
33 33 33 33

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 (7) A man has 3 fifty rupee notes, 4 hundred rupees notes and 6 five hundred rupees notes in his
pocket. If 2 notes are taken at random, what are the odds in favour of both notes being of
hundred rupee denomination?
(1) 1:12 (2) 12:1 (3) 13:1 (4) 1:13
(8) A letter is taken at random from the letters of the word ‘ASSISTANT’ and another letter is
taken at random from the letters of the word ‘STATISTICS’. The probability that the selected
letters are the same is
7 17 29 19
(1) (2) (3) (4)
45 90 90 90
(9) A matrix is chosen at random from a set of all matrices of order 2, with elements 0 or 1 only.
The probability that the determinant of the matrix chosen is non zero will be
3 3 1 5
(1) (2) (3) (4)
16 8 4 8
(10) A bag contains 5 white and 3 black balls. Five balls are drawn successively without replacement.
The probability that they are alternately of different colours is
3 5 1 9
(1) (2) (3) (4)
14 14 14 14
(11) If A and B are two events such that A ⊂ B and P( B) ¹ 0, then which of the following is
correct?
P( A)
(1) P( A / B) = (2) P( A / B) < P( A)
P( B)
(3) P( A / B ) ≥ P ( A) (4) P( A / B) > P( B)

(12) A bag contains 6 green, 2 white, and 7 black balls. If two balls are drawn simultaneously,
then the probability that both are different colours is

68 71 64 73
(1) (2) (3) (4)
105 105 105 105
1 1 1
(13) If X and Y be two events such that P ( X / Y ) = , P (Y / X ) = and P( X ∩ Y ) = , then
P( X ∪ Y ) is 2 3 6

1 2 1 2
(1) (2) (3) (4)
3 5 6 3
(14) An urn contains 5 red and 5 black balls. A ball is drawn at random, its colour is noted and is
returned to the urn. Moreover, 2 additional balls of the colour drawn are put in the urn and
then a ball is drawn at random. The probability that the second ball drawn is red will be
5 1 7 1
(1) (2) (3) (4)
12 2 12 4
(15) A number x is chosen at random from the first 100 natural numbers. Let A be the event of
( x − 10)( x − 50)
numbers which satisfies ≥ 0 , then P ( A) is
x − 30
(1) 0.20 (2) 0.51 (3) 0.71 (4) 0.70

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 (16) If two events A and B are independent such that P( A) = 0.35 and P ( A ∪ B ) = 0.6 ,
then P ( B ) is
5 1 4 7
(1) (2) (3) (4)
13 13 13 13
3 1
(17) If two events A and B are such that P( A) = and P ( A ∩ B) = , then P( A ∩ B ) is
10 2
1 1 1 1
(1) (2) (3) (4)
2 3 4 5
(18) If A and B are two events such that P( A) = 0.4, P ( B ) = 0.8 and P ( B / A ) = 0.6 , then
P ( A ∩ B ) is
(1) 0.96 (2) 0.24 (3) 0.56 (4) 0.66
(19) There are three events A, B and C of which one and only one can happen. If the odds are 7 to
4 against A and 5 to 3 against B, then odds against C is
(1) 23: 65 (2) 65: 23 (3) 23: 88 (4) 88: 23

(20) If a and b are chosen randomly from the set {1, 2,3, 4} with replacement, then the probability
of the real roots of the equation x 2 + ax + b = 0 is
3 5 7 11
(1) (2) (3) (4)
16 16 16 16
1 1
(21) It is given that the events A and B are such that P( A) = , P ( A / B ) = and
4 2
2
P ( B / A ) = . Then P( B) is
3
1 1 2 1
(1) (2) (3) (4)
6 3 3 2
(22) In a certain college 4% of the boys and 1% of the girls are taller than 1.8 meter. Further 60%
of the students are girls. If a student is selected at random and is taller than 1.8 meters, then
the probability that the student is a girl is
2 3 5 7
(1) (2) (3) (4)
11 11 11 11
(23) Ten coins are tossed. The probability of getting at least 8 heads is
7 7 7 7
(1) (2) (3) (4)
64 32 16 128
(24) The probability of two events A and B are 0.3 and 0.6 respectively. The probability that both
A and B occur simultaneously is 0.18. The probability that neither A nor B occurs is
(1) 0.1 (2) 0.72 (3) 0.42 (4) 0.28
(25) If m is a number such that m ≤ 5, then the probability that quadratic equation
2 x 2 + 2mx + m + 1 = 0 has real roots is
1 2 3 4
(1) (2) (3) (4)
5 5 5 5

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 SUMMARY
Let S be the sample space associated with a random experiment and A be an event.
n ( A) Number of cases favourable to A
P ( A) = =
n( S ) Exhaustive Number of cases in S
Axioms of probability
Given a finite sample space S and an event A in S, we define P(A), the probability of A,
satisfies the following three axioms.
(1) P ( A) ≥ 0
(2) If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then P ( A ∪ B ) = P ( A) + P ( B )
(3) P ( S ) = 1
The probability of the impossible event is zero. That is P (∅ ) = 0
If A and B are any two events and B is the complementary events of B , then

P ( A ∩ B ) = P ( A) − P ( A ∩ B )
If A and B are any two events, then

P ( A ∪ B ) = P ( A) + P ( B ) − P ( A ∩ B )
The conditional probability of an event B, assuming that the event A has already
happened is denoted by P ( B A ) and is defined as

P( A ∩ B)
P ( B / A) = provided P ( A) ≠ 0
P ( A)

P( A ∩ B)
P( A / B) = provided P ( B ) ≠ 0
P( B)
The probability of the simultaneous happening of two events A and B is given by

P ( A ∩ B ) = P ( A / B ) P ( B ) or P ( A ∩ B ) = P ( B / A) P ( A)
Two events A and B are said to be independent if and only if

P ( A ∩ B ) = P ( A) . P ( B )
Total Probability
If A1 , A2 , A3 , ... An are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events and B is any event in S
then P(B) is called t h e total p r o b a b i l i t y of event B and
n

P ( B ) = P ( A1 ).P ( B / A1 ) + P ( A2 ).P ( B / A2 ) +  + P ( An ).P ( B / An ) = ∑ P ( Ai ).P ( B / Ai )

i =1

Bayes’ Theorem

If A1 , A2 , A3 , ... An are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events such that P(Ai) > 0,
i = 1 , 2 , 3 , … . n and B is any event in with P(B) > 0, then
P( Ai ) P ( B / Ai )
P( Ai / B) =
P( A1 ) P ( B / A1 ) + P ( A2 ) P ( B / A2 ) + ... + P ( An ) P ( B / An )

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 ICT CORNER 12(a)
Probability

Expected Outcome

Step 1
Open the Browser type the URL Link given below (or) Scan the QR Code.
GeoGebra Workbook called “XI standard Probability” will appear. In that
there are several worksheets related to your lesson.
Step 2
Select the work sheet “Sets and Probability”. You can change the question
by clicking “New Problem”. Work out the probabilities and to check your
answer, click on the respective check boxes to see the answer.

Step1 Step2

Browse in the link:

XI standard Probability: https://ggbm.at/zbpcj934

269 Introduction to Probability Theory

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 ICT CORNER 12(b)

Introduction to Probability Theory

Expected Outcome

Step 1
Open the Browser type the URL Link given below (or) Scan the QR Code.
GeoGebra Workbook called “XI standard Probability” will appear. In that
there are several worksheets related to your lesson.
Step 2
Select the work sheet “Bayes Theorem”. An example is given. Work out the
probabilities step by step as given.
To check your answer, click on the respective check boxes to see the answer.

Step1 Step2

Browse in the link:

XI standard Probability: https://ggbm.at/zbpcj934

XI - Mathematics 270

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