First Stage Statics and Probability lecture (1)

Second Semester

1. Introduction
1.1. Definition
Statics is the science of conducting studies to collect, organize,
summarize, analyze, and draw conclusion from data.
# Why we study statistics? Students study statistics for several reasons:
 Student must be able to read and understand the various statistical
studies performed in their fields. To have this understanding, they must
be knowledgeable about the vocabulary, symbols, concepts, and
statistical procedures used in these studies.
 Students may be called on to conduct research in their field, since
statistical procedures are basic to research. To accomplish this, they
must be able to design experiments; collect, organize, analyze, and
summarize data; and possibly make reliable predictions or forecasts for
future use. They must also be able to communicate the results of the
study in their own words.
 They can also use the knowledge gained from studying statistics to
become better consumers and citizens. For example, they can make
intelligent decisions about what products to purchase based on
consumer studies, about government spending based on utilization
studies, and so on.
1.2 Definition
Variable is a characteristic or attribute that can assume different values.
Data are the values (measurements or observations) that the variables can
assume.

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First Stage Statics and Probability lecture (1)
Second Semester
Variables whose values are determined by chance are called random
variables.
Example 1.3. Suppose that an insurance company studies its records
over the past several years and determines that, on average, 3 out of
every 100 automobiles the company insured were involved in accidents
during a 1-year period. Although there is no way to predict the specific
automobiles that will be involved in an accident (random occurrence),
the company can adjust its rates accordingly, since the company knows
the general pattern over the long run. (That is, on average, 3% of the
insured automobiles will be involved in an accident each year.)
Data set a collection of data values forms a data set. Each value in the
data set is called a data value or a datum.
Data can be used in different ways. The statistics sometimes divided into
two main areas, depending on how data are used:
1. Descriptive statistics
2. Inferential statistics
Descriptive statistics consists of the collection, organization, summarization,
and presentation of data. In descriptive statistics the statistician tries to
describe a situation.
Inferential statistics consists of generalizing from samples to populations,
performing estimations and hypothesis tests, determining relationships among
variables, and making predictions.
Here, the statistician tries to make inferences from samples to
populations. Inferential statistics uses probability, i.e., the chance of an event
occurring. You may be familiar with the concepts of probability through
various forms of games. If you play cards, dice, bingo, and lotteries, you win
or lose according to the laws of probability.
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Second Semester
A population consists of all subjects (human or otherwise) that are being
studied. A sample is a group of subjects selected from a population.
Why sample? Most of the time, due to the expense, time, size of population,
medical concerns, etc., it is not possible to use the entire population for a
statistical study; therefore, researchers use samples.
Variables can be classified as:
 Qualitative variables are variables that can be placed into distinct
categories, according to some characteristic or attribute.
Example, if subjects are classified according to gender (male or female), then
the variable gender is qualitative.
Other examples of qualitative variables are religious preference and
geographic locations.
Quantitative variables are numerical and can be ordered or ranked.
Examples:
The variable age is numerical, and people can be ranked in order
according to the value of their ages. Other examples of quantitative variables
are heights, weights, and body temperatures.
Quantitative variables can be further classified into two groups: discrete
and continuous.
 Discrete variables can be assigned values such as 0, 1, 2, 3 and are
said to be countable. Examples of discrete variables are the number
of children in a family, the number of students in a classroom, and
the number of calls received by a switchboard operator each day for a
month.
Discrete variables assume values that can be counted.

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Second Semester
 Continuous variables can assume an infinite number of values
between any two specific values. They are obtained by measuring.
They often include fractions and decimals.
How variables are categorized, counted, or measured (uses measurement
scales), and four common types of scales are used:
 The nominal level of measurement classifies data into mutually
exclusive (no overlapping), exhausting categories in which no order or
ranking can be imposed on the data.
Example of nominal-level data are political party (Democratic, Republican,
Independent, etc.), religion (Christianity, Judaism, Islam, etc.), and marital
status (single, married, divorced, widowed, separated).
For instance, when people are classified according to their build (small,
medium, or large), a large variation exists among the individuals in each class.
 The ordinal level of measurement classifies data into categories that
can be ranked; however, precise differences between the ranks do not
exist.
Data measured at this level can be placed into categories, and these categories
can be ordered, or ranked. For example, from student evaluations, guest
speakers might be ranked as superior, average, or poor.
 The interval level of measurement ranks data, and precise differences
between units of measure do exist; however, there is no meaningful
zero. Temperature is another example of interval measurement, since
there is a meaningful difference of 1oF between each unit, such as 72
and 73oF. One property is lacking in the interval scale: There is no true
zero.
 The ratio level of measurement possesses all the characteristics of
interval measurement, and there exists a true zero. In addition, true
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Second Semester
ratios exist when the same variable is measured on two different
members of the population.
Examples of ratio scales are those used to measure height, weight, area, and
number of phone calls received. Ratio scales have differences between units
(1 inch, 1 pound, etc.) and a true zero. In addition, the ratio scale contains a
true ratio between values. For example, if one person can lift 200 pounds and
another can lift 100 pounds, then the ratio between them is 2 to 1. Put another
way, the first person can lift twice as much as the second person.
Remark 1.5. There is not complete agreement among statisticians about the
classification of data into one of the four categories. For example, some
researchers classify IQ data as ratio data rather than interval. Also, data can
be altered so that they fit into a different category.
Remark 1.6. Examples of Measurement Scales

Remark 1.7. Data Collection and Sampling Techniques

Data can be collected in a variety of ways. One of the most common
methods is through the use of surveys. Surveys can be done by using a variety

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Second Semester
of methods. Three of the most common methods are the telephone survey, the
mailed questionnaire, and the personal interview.

Remark 1.8. Random samples

Are selected by using chance methods or random numbers. One such
method is to number each subject in the population. Then place numbered
cards in a bowl, mix them thoroughly, and select as many cards as needed.
The subjects whose numbers are selected constitute the sample. Since it is
difficult to mix the cards thoroughly, there is a chance of obtaining a biased
sample. For this reason, statisticians use another method of obtaining
numbers.
They generate random numbers with a computer or calculator. Before
the invention of computers, random numbers were obtained from tables.
Then select a starting number by closing your eyes and placing your finger on
a number in the table.

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Remark 1.9. Sampling Methods
1. Random Subjects are selected by random numbers.
2. Systematic Subjects are selected by using every kth number after the first
subject is randomly selected from 1 through k.
3. Stratified Subjects are selected by dividing up the population into groups
(strata), and subjects are randomly selected within groups.
4. Cluster Subjects are selected by using an intact group that is
representative of the population.
5. Observational and Experimental Studies. There are several different
ways to classify statistical studies. The two types of studies: observational
studies and experimental studies.
 In an observational study, the researcher merely observes what is
happening or what has happened in the past and tries to draw
conclusions based on these observations.
 In an experimental study, the researcher manipulates one of the
variables and tries to determine how the manipulation influences other
variables.
The independent variable in an experimental study is the one that is being
manipulated by the researcher. The independent variable is also called the
explanatory variable. The resultant variable is called the dependent
variable or the outcome variable.
A confounding variable is one that influences the dependent or outcome
variable but was not separated from the independent variable.