Probability
Probability
Probability
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Probability
PROBABILITY
Probability measures the chance of something happening. This means we can use mathematics to find
how likely it is that an event will happen.
I used to think:
What is an outcome?
What is an outcome?
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Probability Basics
Basic Definitions
Let's say a bag contains 4 red stones and 4 blue stones. One of the stones is pulled out
Relative Frequency
a A bag is full of 10 red, 10 blue and 10 green stones. Let's say 12 stones are drawn from the bag at
random in this order:
R G G B G G B B R R R G
b The next time 14 stones are drawn, they are drawn in this order:
B B G R R B R R B R B R G G
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Probability Questions Basics
2. A single die is rolled ten times and these are the numbers it shows: 4, 5, 1, 4, 2, 6, 1, 3, 4, 1
a What is the sample space of rolling a die and is rolling a die a random event? Why?
c If the box factory produced 3600 boxes, what number of these boxes is likely to be broken?
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Probability Questions Basics
d The owner notices that 3 of the apples he bought were rotten. What is the frequency of rotten apples within
the apples?
e If the owner bought 360 apples over a week, how many apples should they expect to be rotten?
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Probability Knowing More
Probability
A bag contains 1 red stone, 1 blue stone and 1 green stone. If you choose a stone without looking, what
are the chances you will choose a red stone? The probability would be 1 .
3
This is the formula to find the probability of an outcome "X":
P^ Xh =
number of ways X could occur
total number of outcomes
The 'total number of outcomes' is also the size of the sample space. Here is an example:
P^2 2h =
number of rolls greater than 2
=4
total number of outcomes 6
= 2 or 0.6o
3
A watchmaker selects 100 of his watches at random and notices 6 of them are faulty.
b If the watchmaker made 1500 watches in total, how many would he expect are faulty?
P^faultyh =
number of faulty watches
total number of watches
6 = number of faulty watches
100 1500 This will not definitely happen.
It is just an expected value based
number of faulty watches = 1500 # 6 = 90 on the probability.
100
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Probability Knowing More
0 # P^ Xh # 1
• If P^Xh = 0 it means that the outcome X is impossible. If P^Xh = 1, it means that the outcome X is certain.
• The closer P^Xh is to 0, the more unlikely X is and the closer P^Xh is to 1 the more likely X is.
• If you find a probability greater than 1 then a mistake has been made somewhere.
Complementary Probability
A bag contains 4 blue stones, 3 green stones and 5 red stones. Answer these questions if one stone is drawn
at random
= 1- 4
12
= 2
3
= 1- 5
12
= 7
12
= 1- 3
12
= 3
4
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Probability Questions Knowing More
2. You notice that when taking a test, you get 1 out of the first 12 questions incorrect.
b Based on this information, how many questions would you expect are incorrect if the test totalled
180 questions?
3. A standard deck of cards (with no jokers) is shuffled and placed face down and spread out.
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a The probability of selecting a single history book is 2 . How many history books would you expect to be in a
9
group of 36 randomly selected book?
b The probability of selecting a single book about food is 4 . What is the probability of selecting a single book
9
about sport?
c If 54 books are selected at random, how many of each type of book could be expected to be selected?
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Probability Questions Knowing More
5. The letters from the word Mississippi are put into a bag. Answer the following questions if a single letter is drawn:
a What is the sample space of this experiment? (Hint: How many different letters are there?)
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Probability Using Our Knowledge
Mutually exclusive events are events that cannot occur at the same time. If they are not mutually exclusive they
are called inclusive events.
For example, rolling a 2 and rolling a 3 with a single die are mutually exclusive events – they can't happen at the
same time.
A book has 20 pages and is opened to a random page. Which of these are mutually exclusive?
These are inclusive events because 10 and 20 are a These are mutually exclusive events because there
multiples of 5 and even which means X and Y can are no numbers which are multiples of 10 and odd.
happen at the same. So X and Y can't happen at the same time.
= 2 + 10
20 20
= 3 = 0.6
5
In the Venn diagram above it's easy to see that In the Venn diagram above it's easy to see that the
10 and 20 are both multiples of 5 AND even sets of multiples of 10 and odd numbers are mutually
numbers. The sets overlap. exclusive. The sets do not overlap and are separate.
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Probability Using Our Knowledge
If X and Y are inclusive then there is an extra step to find P^X or Yh . Subtract the probability of the 'overlapping'
outcomes. To continue the example from the previous page.
A book has 20 pages and is opened to a random page. Find the probability that the page number is even
OR a multiple of 5
Compound Events
A compound event involves more than one outcome. It could have two stages or more. To find the probability of
compound events, find the probability of each outcome and multiply them together.
A bag holds 6 red stones and 4 blue stones. Find the probability of drawing two blue stones from two draws.
= 2 #1
5 3
= 2
15
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Tree Diagrams
Tree diagrams are used with compound events to see all the possible outcomes (the sample space).
R R R
1
4
2
R 4 B R B
1
4
2 G R G
5
R B R
2
4 Sample space
2 1
5 B 4 B B B (all possible outcomes)
1
4
1 G B G
5 R G R
2
4
G
2
4
B G B
From the tree diagram we can that there are 8 possible outcomes in this sample space .
{RR, RB, RG, BR, BB, BG, GR, GB} (GG is not in the sample space because there is 1 green stone.)
b What is the probability that a blue stone is selected first and a red stone selected second?
(without replacing the blue stone)
P^BRh = 2 # 2 = 1
5 4 5
c What is the probability of drawing one red and one green stone?
There are two possible outcomes with one red stone and one green table: GR and RG
= `1 # 2 j+`2 # 1 j
5 4 5 4
= 4
20
=1
5
Notice the difference between b and c . In b , the order matters so there is only one way to draw blue first and
red second. In c , the order doesn't matter, so both GR and RG are counted.
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Probability Using Our Knowledge
If the compound event is just a two-stage event, then a two-way table can be used.
Q1
A B C
A AA BA CA
Q2
B AB BB CB
C AC BC CC
There are 9 possible ways to answer the Q1 and Q2: {AA, BA, CA, AB, BB, CB, AC, BC, CC}.
So the sample space size is 9.
To find the sample size – of a compound event – without a table or tree diagram, multiply the sample sizes of each
stage. In the example above there are 3 ways to answer Q1 and 3 ways to answer Q2, so the sample size is 3 # 3 = 9 .
A restaurant serves 5 starters, 4 mains and 3 desserts. How many ways are there to order a three course meal
of a starter, main, and dessert?
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1. What is the difference between mutually exclusive events and inclusive events?
2. Identify in the following if outcomes A and B are mutually exclusive or not. Give a reason why you say so.
a A: Obtaining 'heads' from a coin toss b A: Finishing a task between Monday and Thursday
B: Obtaining 'tails' from a coin toss B: Finishing a task between Saturday and Tuesday
3. A single die is rolled. Answer the questions about these outcomes (check if they are mutually exclusive first):
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Probability Questions Using Our Knowledge
• P ^Ah = 1 • P ^C h = 1 • P ^A or Bh = 4
2 5 5
• P ^B h = 3 • P ^D h = 2 • P ^C or Dh = 27
10 25 100
• P ^B or Ch = 11
25
a Are A and B mutually exclusive? b Are C and D mutually exclusive?
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5. A book with 50 pages is opened up to a random page. Answer questions that follow about these outcomes:
(Hint: First check if they are mutually exclusive)
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7. A bag contains 1 yellow, 1 white and 1 orange stone. A stone is drawn at random and then replaced. Then a
stone is drawn at random for a second time.
Y Y - Y
Y Y - W
O -
Y -
W -
W - O
O -
b How big is the sample space of this experiment? Is this what you expected?
e What is the probability that the white stone will be drawn both times?
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f Redraw the tree diagram if the stone that is drawn first is not replaced?
h What is the probability that the yellow stone will be drawn first?
i What is the probability that the yellow stone will be drawn second?
j What is the probability that the yellow stone is drawn both times?
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8. A tennis tournament has a singles trophy and a doubles trophy. The countries competing for the singles
trophy are: India, Spain and Greece. The countries competing for the doubles trophy are just India and Spain.
Each country has equal chance to win the trophies.
b What is the probability that Greece will win the singles trophy?
d What is the probability that India and Spain will win a trophy each?
e What is the probability that Spain and Greece will win a trophy each?
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Probability Thinking More
When probabilities of each outcome are written on the 'branches' of a tree diagram it is called a probability tree
diagram. To find the probability of each multi-stage event just multiply the probabilities of each branch.
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Probability Thinking More
Venn diagrams help us see groups better. Let's say that from 30 students, 12 play football, 11 play tennis and 5
play both then the Venn diagram would look like this:
Football Tennis
7 5 6
12
So the diagram shows that 7 students play football only, 6 students play tennis only, 5 students play both and
12 students don't play either game.
• The part in both circles is called the intersection. It has this symbol "+". In the example above there are
12 (7 + 5) students in football, 11 (6 + 5) in tennis and 5 in the intersection football + tennis. This means that
5 students played football AND tennis.
• The union of sets is the combined set and has the symbol ",". Above example football , tennis has
7 + 5 + 6 = 18 students. This means that students play football OR tennis.
Let's say a student is selected at random from the group represented in the above Venn diagram
P^footballh =
number of football players
numbers of students
= +5
7
30
= 2
5
P^football , tennish =
number of students who play football or tennis
numbers of students
= 7 + 5 + 6
30
= 3
5
c Find the probability that the student plays tennis and football.
P^football + tennish =
number of students who play football and tennis
numbers of students
= 5
30
= 1
6
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At the olympics, a country won medals for events according to this table
P^ gold medalh =
number of gold medals
total medals
= 37
100
b If a silver medal is selected at random then what is the probability it would be for archery?
d If a medal is selected at random, what is the probability it will be a gold medal for swimming?
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2. A group of 20 people are asked which pets they have. This is represented in this Venn Diagram:
Cats Dogs
7 4 9
c If a person is chosen at random find the probability that they have cats only, P (cats).
d Find the probability of a person having cats and dogs, P (cats + dogs).
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3. A different group of people was asked about which pets they had and this is the resulting Venn diagram:
Cats Dogs
6
6 10
3
7 3
5
Fish
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4. A probablity tree diagram for a certain compound event looks like this:
I A C I
3
20 7 J A C J
1 20
C 2 K A C K
6 L A D L
10 1
5 3 M A D M
1 5
A 5 D 1
5 N A D N
1 3 O A E O
2 5
5 8 1
E P A E P
1 2
8 Q A E Q
1 R B F R
3 2
F S B F S
3 4 9
5 1
10 9 T B F T
13 U B G U
4 20
B 5 G 3
11 40 V B G V
1 40
10 W B G W
1
H 10 X B H X
2
1 5 Y B H Y
2
Z B H Z
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Probability Questions Thinking More
c If a student is selected at random what is the probability of selecting a girl who plays football?
e If a football player is selected at random, what is the probability they are a girl?
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Probability Answers
b 1 c 1
13 52
2. a The sample space of rolling a dice is
{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} and it is a random event 3 1
d e
because each outcome is equally likely. 4 2
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Probability Answers
c P (A or C) = 2
3 O Y - O
Y W - Y
d P (B or C) = 1
W W W - W
O W - O
c 1 d 1
P ^A or Bh = 1
3 3
5. a
5
e 1
P ^A or Fh = 1
b 9
5
f W Y - W
c P ^B or Eh = 23
50 Y
d P ^C or Dh = 12 O Y - O
25 Y W - Y
e P^E or Fh = 13 W
25
P ^B or Dh = 2
O W - O
f Y O - Y
5
O
6. a 1 b 4 W O - W
36 9
g There are now 6 total outcomes.
c 1 d 1
4 36 1 i 1
h
3 3
e 1
9 j 0
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Probability Answers
5. a P^ boyh = 12
b 1 c 1 25
3 6
b P^ vollyballh = 7
1 1 25
d e
3 6
c P^ girl plays footballh = 11
1 50
f
3
d P^ boy plays footballh = 5
24
Thinking More:
e P^football and girlh = 11
16
1. + is a mathematical symbol for the term
intersection. For example, A + B is a set which
contains all the elements that sets A and B
have in common.
2. a 9 b 4
c P^catsh = 7
20
d P^cats + dogsh = 1
5
e P^cats , dogsh = 1
3. a 5 b 9
c 6 d 3
e 9 f 7
40 8
g 3
20
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Probability Notes
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Probability
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