Election 2024 Polls: Harris vs.
Trump
Updated Nov. 5, 2024 Leer en español
These averages, based on pre-election polls, were last updated at 6 p.m. Eastern time on Election Day. Follow live results ›
Who’s leading the polls?
National polling average
Harris +1 Nate Cohn
Nov. 5 Chief political analyst
It’s Election Day, and the polls show one of
the closest presidential races in the history
50% 49% Harris of American politics. Nationwide or across
the key battlegrounds collectively, neither
48% Trump
Kamala Harris nor Donald J. Trump leads
by more than a single percentage point.
Neither candidate holds a meaningful edge
in enough states to win 270 electoral votes.
In the history of modern polling, there’s
40%
never been a campaign where the final polls
showed such a close contest. Updated Nov. 5
ELECTION
AUG. SEPT. OCT. DAY
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Pennsylvania › Nevada › North Carolina › Michigan › Download The Times app to
Even Even Even Harris <1 explore the hub, for a limited
time.
49% 49% 49% 49%
50% 50% 50% 50%
48% 48% 48% 48%
40% 40% 40% 40%
AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV.
Wisconsin › Georgia › Arizona ›
Harris +1 Trump +1 Trump +3
49% 49% 50%
50% 50% 50%
48% 48% 47%
40% 40% 40%
AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV.
Note: Individual poll results are shown as circles for each candidate. Polls with greater weight in the average have
larger circles. Source: Averages by The New York Times; polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Times.
Explore Electoral College scenarios
Both Harris and Trump have states they can probably count on to get at least
Ruth Igielnik
200 electoral votes, but they need to get to 270 to win. Let’s zoom in on seven Staff editor, polling
key states in the middle where the vote was closest in 2020.
Across the seven swing states that are likely
270 to win to decide the outcome of this election, the
Harris Trump
polls are so remarkably close that neither
226 electoral votes 219
candidate has a meaningful edge in this
final stretch. But if the polls are off even by
a small margin, it’s possible either candidate
could sweep most or all of these states. You
Today’s polls show the election could go either way
can explore all possible scenarios and see
Neither candidate currently holds a polling lead in enough states to reach 270 the potential paths to victory here.
electoral votes. Polls in the closest states are essentially tied. Updated Nov. 4
Harris 251 270 Trump 246
10 15 19 6 16 16 11
Wis. Mich. Pa. Nev. N.C. Ga. Ariz.
+1 <1 Even Even Even +1 +3
If the polls miss in Harris’s favor
Harris could easily prevail if the polls are underestimating her. For example,
state polls underestimated Democrats in the 2022 midterms, and they could also
miss in that direction this year. Here’s a possible scenario.
Harris 292 270 Trump 246
10 15 19 6 16 16 11
Wis. Mich. Pa. Nev. N.C. Ga. Ariz.
Harris is within 1 point of the lead in these
states.
If the polls miss in Trump’s favor
Trump could win if the polls are underestimating him even slightly. In 2016 and
2020, he outperformed the polls in the swing states, and he could do it again.
Here’s one possibility.
Harris 236 270 Trump 302
10 15 19 6 16 16 11
Wis. Mich. Pa. Nev. N.C. Ga. Ariz.
Trump is within 1 point of the lead in these states.
State averages and past results
States are shown in order of the closest current polling averages.
Ruth Igielnik
ELECTION RESULTS ELECTION RESULTS Staff editor, polling
Swing states POLLING LEADER 2020 2016 Other states POLLING LEADER 2020 2016
We now have enough polls to generate an
Pa. › Iowa average in Iowa, after a new poll from the
Even D +1 R <1 Trump +3 R +8 R +10
19 E.V. 6 E.V. well-regarded pollster J. Ann Selzer. That
poll finds Harris up three percentage points.
ELECTION RESULTS ELECTION RESULTS
With that poll included, our Iowa average
POLLING LEADER 2020 2016 POLLING LEADER 2020 2016
has Trump ahead by three percentage
points, which puts it in line with the core
Nev. › Even D +2 D +2 Maine 2 › Trump +5 R +6 R +10
6 E.V. 1 E.V. battleground states. Updated Nov. 4
N.C. › Even R +1 R +4 Minn. › Harris +5 D +7 D +2
16 E.V. 10 E.V.
Mich. › Harris <1 D +3 R <1 Fla. › Trump +6 R +3 R +1
15 E.V. 30 E.V.
Wis. › Harris +1 D <1 R <1 Va. › Harris +7 D +10 D +5
10 E.V. 13 E.V.
Ga. › Trump +1 D <1 R +5 N.M. › Harris +7 D +11 D +8
16 E.V. 5 E.V.
Ariz. › Trump +3 D <1 R +4 N.H. › Harris +7 D +7 D <1
11 E.V. 4 E.V.
Show more states
Note: Only states with enough polling to calculate an average are shown. See more information about Maine and
Nebraska congressional districts at the bottom of the page.
How wrong might the polls be?
It’s normal for polls not to match the final results, sometimes by considerable Ruth Igielnik
amounts. The ranges in this chart represent the magnitude of each state’s biggest Staff editor, polling
polling miss in recent elections, shown in relation to the current polling averages.
BIGGEST RECENT
In 2016 and 2020, the polls underestimated
POLLING MISS Trump. But in 2012 they underestimated the
Current poll average Democratic candidate, Barack Obama, and
Wisconsin 9 pts. (2020) in 2022 Democrats outperformed polling
Range of polling miss
averages in several key midterm races. Past
Michigan 6 pts. (2022) polling misses can give a sense of the
BIGGEST RECENT
POLLING MISS D+8 D+4 EVEN R+4 R+8 magnitude by which current averages could
be wrong, but they are not a guarantee of
Pennsylvania 5 pts. (2022) which way today’s polls may be off.
Nevada 4 pts. (2012)
North Carolina 6 pts. (2016)
Georgia 2 pts. (2016)
Arizona 3 pts. (2022)
Note: Polling misses are based on averages published by The New York Times in 2012, 2016 and 2020, and on
FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 midterm averages in each state’s Senate or governor’s race.
The latest Harris vs. Trump polls
Every poll here influences the averages above. Polls from “select pollsters,” which Nate Cohn
meet certain criteria for reliability, count for more and are shown with a Chief political analyst
diamond. You can filter by state and toggle to show only select pollsters.
The polls have shifted toward Trump over
All national and state polls All pollsters Select pollsters the last few weeks. But over the last few
›
days, there were signs that the race had
begun to swing a bit back toward Harris.
POLLSTER SPONSOR STATE MARGIN HARRIS TRUMP
Marist College, YouGov, Muhlenberg
HarrisX Wisconsin Harris +2 51% 49% College and The Washington Post found her
Nov. 2-4 New narrowly up in Pennsylvania. Then there
was the Selzer poll showing her leading by
HarrisX Pennsylvania Harris +4 52% 48% three points in Iowa. Finally, the last wave
Nov. 2-4 New
of New York Times/Siena College polls
showed her with a narrow edge in the key
HarrisX North Carolina Even 50% 50%
Nov. 2-4 New battlegrounds. But historically, late shifts in
the polls do not necessarily carry through to
‹ Previous 1 to 10 of 1,687 polls Next › predict how the polls will err on Election
Day. Updated Nov. 4
POLLSTER SPONSOR STATE MARGIN HARRIS TRUMP
HarrisX Nevada Harris +2 51% 49%
Nov. 2-4 New
HarrisX Michigan Even 50% 50%
Nov. 2-4 New
HarrisX Georgia Trump +4 48% 52%
Nov. 2-4 New
HarrisX Arizona Trump +2 49% 51%
Nov. 2-4 New
AtlasIntel Ohio Trump +9 45% 54%
Oct. 31 - Nov. 3
AtlasIntel Texas Trump +11 44% 55%
Oct. 31 - Nov. 3
AtlasIntel Virginia Harris +5 51% 46%
Oct. 31 - Nov. 3
1 to 10 of 1,687 polls
Note: Some polls may include responses for “undecided” or other candidates that may not be included in this table.
Margins are calculated using unrounded vote shares when available. Source: Polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and
The New York Times.
How the averages have changed
Arrows to the left indicate polling gains for Harris; to the right, for Trump.
Nate Cohn
Chief political analyst
In the last two weeks Since presidential debate Since Biden dropped out
Harris’s gains in the last few days came as
CURRENT the political conversation turned toward
MARGIN POLLS
Trump’s liabilities. While the news and the
U.S. Harris +1 53 <1 polls have helped give the Harris campaign
CURRENT
MARGIN POLLS D+5 EVEN R+5 a sense of momentum heading into Election
Day, the overall effect on the averages has
<1
Wisconsin Harris +1 23 been relatively minimal. Updated Nov. 5
<1
Michigan Harris <1 30
No change
Pennsylvania Even 29
<1
Nevada Even 16
<1
North Carolina Even 18
<1
Georgia Trump +1 17
<1
Arizona Trump +3 23
Note: “Since Biden dropped out” shows the change from the Biden vs. Trump head-to-head polling average on July
21 to the current Harris vs. Trump average.
From Biden to Harris
This chart shows how the polling margin has changed over the course of the
Nate Cohn
campaign, first for the Biden vs. Trump matchup, and now for Harris vs. Trump. Chief political analyst
National polling average Overall, the race remains deadlocked. The
›
national polls have become extremely close,
Nov. 5
raising the possibility of a Trump victory in
D+6 the popular vote. And Harris’s once clear-
but-modest lead in the so-called blue wall of
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan has
all but evaporated. In the end, the voters,
not the polls, will soon have the final say.
D+3 Updated Nov. 4
July 21 Harris vs. Trump
July 13 Biden Aug. 19 +1 Harris
June 27 Trump leaves Democratic Sept. 10
Debate shot race convention Debate
EVEN
Biden vs. Trump
+3 Trump
R+3
R+6
Note: Head-to-head average shown for the Biden vs. Trump matchup. The Harris vs. Trump average includes polls
conducted before Biden dropped out and polls that included Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
About our polling averages Presidential Polls
Overview Texas
Our averages include polls collected by The New York Times and by FiveThirtyEight. The estimates adjust for a
variety of factors, including the recency and sample size of a poll, whether a poll represents likely voters, and Arizona New Mexico
whether other polls have shifted since a poll was conducted.
Georgia Ohio
We also evaluate whether each pollster: Michigan California
⬤ Has a track record of accuracy in recent elections Nevada Maryland
⬤ Is a member of a professional polling organization
North Carolina New Hampshire
⬤ Conducts probability-based sampling
Pennsylvania New York
These elements factor into how much weight each poll gets in the average. And we consider pollsters that Wisconsin Maine C.D. 2
meet at least two of the three criteria to be “select pollsters,” so long as they are conducting polls for
nonpartisan sponsors. Read more about our methodology. Virginia Nebraska C.D. 2
Minnesota Biden vs. Trump
The Times conducts its own national and state polls in partnership with Siena College. Those polls are included (archived)
in the averages. Follow Times/Siena polling here. Florida
Maine and Nebraska award two electoral votes to the statewide winner and a single electoral vote to the Senate Polls
winner of each congressional district. (Maine has two congressional districts, and Nebraska has three.)
Historical election results for these districts are calculated based on votes cast within the current boundaries Overview Arizona
of the district.
Michigan California
Sources: Polling averages by The New York Times. Individual polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Times. Florida Nevada
Maryland Ohio
Credits Minnesota Pennsylvania
By Cam Baker, Laura Bejder Jensen, Ademola Bello, Dana Chiueh, Nate Cohn, Molly Cook Escobar, Annie Missouri Tennessee
Daniel, Ruth Igielnik, K.K. Rebecca Lai, Jasmine C. Lee, Alex Lemonides, Albert Sun, Rumsey Taylor and Isaac Montana Texas
White. Additional work by Kristen Bayrakdarian, Asmaa Elkeurti, Andrew Fischer, Andrew Park, Jaymin Patel,
Dan Simmons-Ritchie, Ethan Singer and James Thomas. Nebraska Virginia
New Mexico Wisconsin
Correction: Sept. 12, 2024
An earlier version of a chart showing projections if the polls changed or missed in Donald
Trump’s favor misstated the number of electoral votes that would be won by each candidate.
