Allslideland
Allslideland
Outcome-based education
ME2045 Outcome-based education (OBE) is an
Learning outcomes
Define engineering economy and the time value of money involves formulating, estimating, and evaluating the expected
Identify the steps in an engineering economy study
economic outcomes of alternatives designed to accomplish a defined
Perform calculations for interest rates and rates of return
purpose. Mathematical techniques simplify the economic evaluation
Identify and use engineering economic terminology and symbols.
Describe and graphically represent cash flows. of alternatives.
Describe and calculate economic equivalence. involves the systematic evaluation of the economic merits of
Calculate simple and compound interest amounts for one or more proposed solutions to engineering problems.
time periods.
State the meaning and role of Minimum Attractive Rate of Return Other terms that means the same as EE: engineering economic
(MARR) and opportunity costs.
analysis, capital allocation study, economic analysis
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Solutions to engineering problems must 04 essential elements in EE estimates and decision
embody creative and innovative technology and ideas, 2. Times of occurrence of cash flows
permit identification and scrutiny of their estimated outcomes, 3. Interest rates for time value of money
and 4. Measure of worth for selecting an alternative
translate profitability to the through a valid and
acceptable measure of merit.
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Applications 07 fundamental principles of EE
EE analysis can play a role in many
types of situations: Textbook page 4 1. Develop the alternatives
Choosing the best design for a high-
efficiency gas furnace. 2. Focus on the differences
Selecting the most suitable robot for a
welding operation on an automotive 3. Use a consistent viewpoint
assembly line.
Making a recommendation about 4. Use a common unit of measure
whether jet airplanes for an overnight
delivery service should be purchased or 5. Consider all relevant criteria
leased.
Determining the optimal staffing plan for 6. Make uncertainty explicit
a computer help desk.
7. Revisit your decisions
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2. Development of alternatives
Collect relevant data and define viable solution alternatives
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Example Interest rate
Interest is the manifestation of the time value of money.
Read your textbook. Page 5 and 6 Interest is the difference between an ending amount of money and the beginning amount.
If the difference is zero or negative, there is no interest.
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AIC AIC
S. Inc. plans to borrow $20,000 from a bank for 1 year at 9% S. Inc. plans to borrow $20,000 from a bank for 1 year at 9%
interest for new recording equipment. interest for new recording equipment.
The interest and the total amount due after 1 year: The interest and the total amount due after 1 year:
I Interest = $1180; Total due = $ 21,180 I Interest = $1180; Total due = $ 21,180
II Interest = $1800; Total due = $ 21,800 II Interest = $1800; Total due = $ 21,800
III Interest = $1100; Total due = $ 21,000 III Interest = $1100; Total due = $ 21,000
IV Interest = $1180; Total due = $ 21,100 IV Interest = $1180; Total due = $ 21,100
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Inflation Inflation
Inflation represents a decrease in the value of a given currency. Inflation contributes to
$10 now will not purchase the same amount of gasoline for your car (or most A reduction in purchasing power of the currency
other things) as $10 did 10 years ago.
An increase in the CPI (consumer price index)
The changing value of the currency affects market interest rates. An increase in the cost of equipment and its maintenance
In simple terms, interest rates reflect two things: a so-called real rate An increase in the cost of salaried professionals and hourly employees
of return plus the expected inflation rate. A reduction in the real rate of return on personal savings and certain
corporate investments
The real rate of return allows the investor to purchase more than he or she
could have purchased before the investment, In other words, inflation can materially contribute to changes in
while inflation raises the real rate to the market rate that we use on a daily corporate and personal economic analysis.
basis.
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F = value or amount of money at some future time. Also F is called future worth (FW) and future
value (FV); dollars
A = series of consecutive, equal, end-of-period amounts of money. Also A is called the annual worth
(AW) and equivalent uniform annual worth (EUAW); dollars per year, euros per month
i = interest rate per time period; percent per year, percent per month
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Cash Flows: Estimation and Diagramming Cash flow
Cash inflows are all types of receipts, including sales, revenues, Net cash flow for each time period
incomes, money from a loan when received from the lender,
and savings generated by project and business activity.
A plus sign indicates a cash inflow.
Cash outflows are all types of costs, including disbursements,
expenses, deposits into retirement or savings accounts, loan Cash flow diagram
repayments, and taxes caused by projects and business
activity.
A negative or minus sign indicates a cash outflow. When a project t = 0 is the present,
involves only costs, the minus sign may be omitted for some t = 1 is the end of
techniques, such as benefit/cost analysis. time period 1 (end
of interest period)
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Example Example
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Economic Equivalence Simple and compound interest
Economic equivalence is a combination of interest rate and time Simple interest is calculated using the principal only, ignoring any
value of money to determine the different amounts of money at interest accrued in preceding interest periods.
different points in time that are equal in economic value.
The total simple interest over several periods is computed as
It is used in comparison of alternative cash flows.
Example:
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Example Minimum Attractive Rate of Return
Example 1.15 page 23 The Minimum Attractive Rate of Return
Example 1.16 page 24-25 (MARR) is a reasonable rate of return
established for the evaluation and selection
of alternatives.
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Opportunity cost End of chapter 1
Opportunity cost: The expected rate of return on the unfunded project. Read all definitions and examples
Do all exercises
The opportunity cost is the rate of return of a forgone opportunity caused
There will be a quiz (Bkel)
by the inability to pursue a project.
Numerically, it is the largest rate of return of all the projects not accepted
(forgone) due to the lack of capital funds or other resources.
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Engineering Economy
ME2045
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Learning outcomes Introduction
Derive and use the engineering economy factors to account for the time The value of money is a function of time and interest rate.
value of money:
F/P and P/F The general relationship that can be applied to determine the time
P/A and A/P
value of money at various times is in the form:
F/A and A/F
Use linear interpolation in factor tables to determine factor values X = Y.(X/Y, i , n)
Use the present worth (P/G) and uniform annual series (A/G) factors for Where,
arithmetic gradients.
Use the geometric gradient series factor (P/A,g) to find present worth X is the value to be determined
Use the equivalence relations to determine interest rate or rate of return (i) Y is the known or given value
and (n) for a cash flow series. (Find i and n)
(X/Y, i, n) is a function of (i, n), often referred to as (X/Y) factor.
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Single Payment Factors (F/P and P/F) Find F/P and P/F
Single amount factors (F/P and P/F) Single amount factors (F/P and P/F)
F/P: determines the amount of money F accumulated after n years (or periods) from a To find P, given F that occurs n periods in the future:
single present worth P, with interest compounded one time per year (or period).
To find F, given P:
The factor (1 + i)n is called the single-payment compound amount factor (SPCAF), but it (1 + i) is known as the single-payment present worth factor (SPPWF), or the
is usually referred to as the factor. factor.
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Notation & Equation Notation & Equation
Use Factor
tables
(Page 595 623)
Examples:
The value of the
Use Factor tables (Page 595 623) Use formular factor is
Examples:
The value of the factor is column of Table 10 at
period 10 as 0.6139
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Solution:
The symbols and values are
Cash flow
P = $10,000
F=?
i = 8% per year
n = 20 n = 20 years
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Example 2.2
Example 2.1 The HBNA plant will require an investment of $200 million to construct. Delays beyond the anticipated
implementation year of 2020 will require additional money to construct the plant. Assuming that the cost of
P = $10,000 F=? i = 8% per year n = 20 years money is 10% per year compound interest, use tabulated factor values to determine the following for the
board of directors of the Italian company that plans to develop the plant.
(a) The equivalent investment needed in 2023 if the plant is delayed for 3 years.
By factor formular:
(b) The equivalent investment needed in 2016 if the plant is constructed sooner than originally
planned.
F = P(1 + i)n = 10,000(1.08)20 = 10,000(4.6610) = $46,610 (a) F3 = ?
Solution
By tabular:
(b) P =?
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The term in brackets is called the capital recovery factor (CRF), or A/P factor. It
The term in brackets in Equation is the conversion factor referred to as the uniform series present worth calculates the equivalent uniform annual worth A over n years for a given P in year
It is the factor used to calculate the equivalent P value in year 0 for a uniform end-of-period series
of A values beginning at the end of period 1 and extending for n periods
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Find P/A and A/P Example
How much money should you be willing to pay now for a guaranteed
$600 per year for 9 years starting next year, at a rate of return of 16%
per year?
Solution:
The cash flows:
A = $600, i = 16%, and n = 9.
The present worth is
P=?
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Example Example
How much money should you be willing to pay now for a guaranteed $600 The HBNA plant may generate a revenue base of $50 million per year.
per year for 9 years starting next year, at a rate of return of 16% per year? The president of the Italian parent company Baleez may have reason
to be quite pleased with this projection for the simple reason that over
Solution the 5-year planning horizon, the expected revenue would total $250
million, which is $50 million more than the initial investment.
The cash flows: With money worth 10% per year, address the following question from
A = $600, i = 16%, and n = 9. the president:
Will the initial investment be recovered over the 5-year horizon with
The present worth is the time value of money considered?
If so, by how much extra in present worth funds?
P = 600 16%,9) = 600 (4.6065) = $2763.90
If not, what is the equivalent annual revenue base required for the recovery
plus the 10% return on money?
Excel: PV(16%,9,600) P = ($2763.93).
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Example Find A/F and F/A
Use the factor to determine whether A = $50 million per year for n = 5 years starting 1 year after
the completion (t = 0) at i = 10% per year is equivalently less or greater than $200 M.
The cash flow diagram
Table 15 values: P = 50,000,000 10%,5) = 50,000,000 (3.7908) = $189,540,000
->The present worth value is less than the investment plus a 10% per year return, so the president
should not be satisfied with the projected annual revenue.
To determine the minimum required to realize a 10% per year return, use the factor.
The cash flow diagram
A = 200,000,000 (A/P,10%,5) = 200,000,000 (0.26380) = $52,760,000 per year
The plant needs to generate $52,760,000 per year to realize a 10% per year return over 5 years.
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Example Example
Read example 2.6 page 47
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Factor Values for Untabulated i or n Values Practice???!!!
Problems chapter 2 (Page 64 66)
Given specific values of i and n, there are several ways to obtain
any factor value:
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Conventional arithmetic
Base amount gradient series without the
base amount.
Cash flow diagram of an arithmetic gradient series
G = constant arithmetic change in cash flows from one
time period to the next;
G may be positive or negative
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The total present worth PT for a series that includes a base
The corresponding equivalent annual worth AT is the sum of the
amount A and conventional arithmetic gradient must consider
the present worth of both the uniform series defined by A and base amount series annual worth AA and gradient series annual
the arithmetic gradient series.
worth AG, that is,
The addition of the two results in PT.
where:
PA is the present worth of the uniform series only,
PG is the present worth of the gradient series only,
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To derive them:
Use (
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Example 2.9
Neighboring parishes in Louisiana have agreed to pool road tax
resources already designated for bridge refurbishment.
At a recent meeting, the engineers estimated that a total of
$500,000 will be deposited at the end of next year into an
account for the repair of old and safety-questionable bridges
throughout the area.
Further, they estimated that the deposits will increase by
$100,000 per year for only 9 years thereafter, then cease.
Determine the equivalent (a) present worth, and (b) annual series
amounts, if public funds earn at a rate of 5% per year.
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Geometric Gradient Series Factors Geometric Gradient Series Factors
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Example 2.14 p63 End of chapter 2
Review all definitions and examples
Do all exercises (chapter 2)
There will be a quiz (LMS)
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Engineering Economy
ME2045
COMBINING FACTORS
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Le Ngoc Quynh Lam
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Learning outcomes Calculations for Uniform Series That Are Shifted
Using multiple factors to find equivalent amounts for cash flows When a uniform series begins at a time other than at the end of
period 1, it is called a shifted series.
that have nonstandard placement
Determine the P, F, or A values of a series starting at a time other than
period 1.
Example: Find P? or find F?
Determine the P, F, or A values of a shifted series and randomly placed
single cash flows.
Make equivalence calculations for shifted arithmetic or geometric
gradient series that increase or decrease in size of cash flows.
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Calculations for Uniform Series That Are Shifted Calculations for Uniform Series That Are Shifted
Remind: 1. Draw a diagram of the positive and negative cash flows.
2. Locate the present worth or future worth of each series on the
cash flow diagram.
3. Determine n for each series by renumbering the cash flow
diagram.
4. Draw another cash flow diagram representing the desired
equivalent cash flow.
5. Set up and solve the equations.
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Example 3.1 (page 74) Example 3.2 (page 76)
The offshore design group at Bechtel just purchased upgraded CAD software for $5000 now and
Recalibration of sensitive measuring devices costs $8000 per year. If the
annual payments of $500 per year for 6 years starting 3 years from now for annual upgrades. machine will be recalibrated for each of 6 years starting 3 years after
What is the present worth in year 0 of the payments if the interest rate is 8% per year? purchase, calculate the 8-year equivalent uniform series at 16% per year.
SOLUTION
Solution Find PT =?
P'A 6)
PA A 2)
PT = P0 + PA
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Calculations Involving Uniform Series and Randomly Placed Calculations Involving Uniform Series and Randomly Placed
Single Amounts Single Amounts
Example 3.3 page 76 Example 3.3 page 76: The engineering company makes a proposal to the mining company that it pay
$20,000 per year for 20 years beginning 1 year from now, plus $10,000 six years from now and
An engineering company in Wyoming that owns 50 hectares of valuable land has decided to
$15,000 sixteen years from now.
lease the mineral rights to a mining company. The primary objective is to obtain long-term
If the mining company wants to pay off its lease immediately, how much should it pay now if the
income to finance ongoing projects 6 and 16 years from the present time.
investment is to make 16% per year?
The engineering company makes a proposal to the mining company that it pay $20,000 per
SOLUTION
year for 20 years beginning 1 year from now, plus $10,000 six years from now and $15,000
Find PT=?
sixteen years from now. PT
If the mining company wants to pay off its lease immediately, how much should it pay now if
the investment is to make 16% per year? = $124,075
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Calculations Involving Uniform Series and Randomly Placed Calculations Involving Uniform Series and Randomly Placed
Single Amounts Single Amounts
Example 3.4 page 77:
Example 3.4 page 77:
A design-build-operate engineering company in Texas that owns a sizable amount of land plans to
lease the drilling rights (oil and gas only) to a mining and exploration company. SOLUTION:
The contract calls for the mining company to pay $20,000 per year for 20 years beginning 3 years
1. Total present worth PT in year 0
from now (i.e., beginning at the end of year 3 and continuing through year 22) plus $10,000 six years
from now and $15,000 sixteen years from now. P'A = 20,000 16%,20)
Utilize engineering economy relations to determine the five equivalent values listed below at 16% per
PT = P' 16%,2) + 10,000 16%,6) + 15,000 16%,16)
year.
1. Total present worth PT in year 0 = 20,000 16%,20 16%,2) + 10,000 16%,6)
2. Future worth F in year 22
+ 15,000 16%,16)
3. Annual series over all 22 years
4. Annual series over the first 10 years = $93,625
5. Annual series over the last 12 years
2. Future worth F in year 22
SOLUTION
F = 20,000 16%,20) + 10,000 16%,16) + 15,000 16%,6) = $2,451,626
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Calculations Involving Uniform Series and Randomly Placed
Single Amounts Calculations for Shifted Gradients
3. Annual series over all 22 years REMIND:
The present worth of an arithmetic gradient will always be located
A1 22 = PT(A/P,16%,22) = 93,625(0.16635) = $15,575
two periods before the gradient starts.
OR: A1 22 = F(A/F,16%,22) = $15,575.
4. Annual series over the first 10 years
A1 10 = PT (A/P,16%,10) = 93,625(0.20690) = $19,371
5. Annual series over the last 12 years
A11 22 = F(A/F,16%,12) = 2,451,626(0.03241) = $79,457
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PT = PA + PG = 100(P/A,i,8) + 50(P/G,i,5)(P/F,i,3)
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Example 3.6 page 82 Example 3.7
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Example 3.8 End of chapter 3
Read all definitions and examples
Do all exercises
There will be a quiz (LMS)
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Engineering Economy
ME2045
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Learning outcomes
Simple interest (lãi )
Make computations for interest rates and cash flows that are on a time
Simple interest is calculated using the principal only, ignoring any interest accrued in
basis other than a year. preceding interest periods.
Explain interest rate statements that include nominal and effective rates.
Derive and use the formula for an effective annual interest rate.
Determine the effective interest rate for any stated time period
Determine the payment period (PP) and compounding period (CP) for equivalence
computations. Compound interest (lãi kép)
the interest accrued for each interest period is calculated on the principal plus the
Perform equivalence calculations for single amount cash flows and PP CP total amount of interest accumulated in all previous periods.
Perform equivalence calculations for series and gradient cash flows and PP CP. compound interest includes interest on the interest earned in the previous period
Perform equivalence calculations for cash flows with PP < CP.
Derive and use the effective interest rate formula for interest rates that are
compounded continuously.
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Nominal and Effective Interest Rate Statements Nominal and Effective Interest Rate Statements
Nominal interest rate (lãi danh )- r Effective interest rate (lãi ) i
Ex: the interest rate of 1.5% per month is the same as each of
the following nominal rates. Note:
Compounding period
(CP) An effective rate may not always include the compounding period in the statement.
If the CP is not mentioned, it is understood to be the same as the time period mentioned
Compounded monthly
with the interest rate.
Eg. With CP = 1 month,
Nominal rate is 4.5% per quarter Eg. 1.5% per month equivalent effective rate: 1.5% per month, compounded monthly
compounded monthly.
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Effective Interest Rate Statements Other terms
Annual Percentage Rate (APR)
is often stated as the annual interest rate for credit cards, loans, and
house mortgages.
This is the same as the nominal rate.
An APR of 15% is the same as a nominal 15% per year
Or a nominal 1.25% on a monthly basis.
Annual Percentage Yield (APY)
is a commonly stated annual rate of return for investments, certificates
of deposit, and saving accounts.
This is the same as an effective rate.
Note:
the effective rate is always greater than or equal to the nominal
rate, and similarly APY APR.
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Example 4.1
Nominal and Effective Interest Rate Statements
Solution
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4.2 Effective Annual Interest Rates Effective Annual Interest Rates
The future worth F at the end of 1 year:
F = P + Pia = 1(1 + ia)
In which, ia = effective annual interest rate
F = 1(1 + i)m
i is the rate for one compounding period
The effective annual interest rate:
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Example 4.3 page 104
Example 4.3 page 104
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Jigsaw activity (4.3 4.7) 4.3 Effective Interest Rates for Any Time Period
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Example 4.5 page 107 Example 4.5 page 107
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4.4Equivalence Relations: Payment Period and Compounding Period
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Ex: Ex:
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EX 4.8
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EX 4.8 EX 4.8
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Ex 4.9 4.7 Equivalence Relations: Single Amounts and Series with PP < CP
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EX 4.11 EX 4.11
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EX 4.11 4.8 Effective Interest Rate for Continuous Compounding
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EX. 4.13
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End of chapter 4
Read all definitions and examples
Do all exercises
There will be a quiz (Bkel)
45 47
Learning outcomes
5
Engineering Economy
ME2045
Utilize different present worth (PW) techniques to evaluate and
select alternatives.
Identify mutually exclusive and independent projects; define revenue and
PRESENT WORTH ANALYSIS cost alternatives.
Select the best of equal-life alternatives using present worth analysis.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Le Ngoc Quynh Lam Select the best of different-life alternatives using present worth analysis
Select the best alternative using future worth (FW) analysis
Select the best alternative using capitalized cost (CC) analysis
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Case study: Water for Semiconductor Manufacturing Case study: Water for Semiconductor Manufacturing
A fab costs upward of $2.5 billion to construct, with approximately 1% of this total, or $25 million, required to
The worldwide contribution of semiconductor sales is about $250 billion per year, or about
provide the UPW needed, including the necessary wastewater and recycling equipment.
10% of the GDP (gross domestic product). This industry produces the microchips
A newcomer to the industry, Angular Enterprises, has estimated the cost profiles for two options to supply its
used in many of the communication, entertainment, transportation, and computing devices
anticipated fab with water. It is fortunate to have the option of desalinated seawater or purified
we use every day. Depending upon the type and size of fabrication plant (fab), the need for
groundwater sources in the location chosen for its new fab. The initial cost estimates for the UPW system
ultrapure water (UPW) to manufacture these tiny integrated circuits is high, ranging from
are given below
500 to 2000 gpm (gallons per minute). Ultrapure water is obtained by special processes that
commonly include reverse osmosis deionizing resin bed technologies. Potable water
obtained from purifying seawater or brackish groundwater may cost from $2 to $3 per 1000
gallons, but to obtain UPW on-site for semiconductor manufacturing may cost an additional
$1 to $3 per 1000 gallons.
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Decision making 5.2 PW Analysis of Equal-Life Alternatives
Equal-life 5.2 Ideas:
alternatives
Present worth all future costs and revenues are transformed to equivalent
(PW) analysis
Different-life 5.3 monetary units NOW
alternatives
Select the best all future cash flows are converted to present amounts at a
FW analysis
alternative 5.4
specific rate of return, which is the MARR
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5.2 PW Analysis of Equal-Life Alternatives 5.3 PW Analysis of Different-Life Alternatives
When the PW method is used to compare mutually exclusive alternatives
that have different lives, using either of two approaches:
Solution:
- Type: Cost alternatives LCM: Compare the PW of alternatives over a period of time equal to the
- Check the required condition: Yes. (equal- life)
least common multiple (LCM) of their estimated lives.
- Present worth at MARR = 10%:
Study period: Compare the PW of alternatives using a specified study
period of n years. This approach does not necessarily consider the useful
life of an alternative. The study period is also called the planning horizon.
The solar-powered machine is selected since the PW of its costs is the lowest; it has the
numerically largest PW value.
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2. The selected alternative can be repeated over each life cycle of the LCM
in exactly the same manner.
a) Determine which vendor should be selected on the basis of a PW comparison, if the
3. Cash flow estimates are the same for each life cycle
MARR is 15% per year.
b) National Homebuilders has a standard practice of evaluating all options over a 5-year
period. If a study period of 5 years is used and the salvage values are not expected to
change, which vendor should be selected?
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5.3 PW Analysis of Different-Life Alternatives 5.3 PW Analysis of Different-Life Alternatives
Example 5.3 (page 136): Solution Example 5.3 (page 136): Solution
b. For a 5-year study period, no cycle repeats are necessary.
a. Since nA = 6 and nB = 9 LCM = 18
The PW analysis is
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A British food distribution conglomerate purchased a Canadian food store chain for £75 million 3
The selection guidelines for FW analysis are the same as for
years ago. There was a net loss of £10 million at the end of year 1 of ownership. Net cash flow is
PW analysis; FW 0 means the MARR is met or exceeded. increasing with an arithmetic gradient of £+5 million per year starting the second year, and this
pattern is expected to continue for the foreseeable future. Because of the heavy debt financing
For two or more mutually exclusive alternatives, select the one used to purchase the Canadian chain, the international board of directors expects a MARR of 25%
per year from any sale.
with the numerically largest FW value.
a) The British conglomerate has just been offered £159.5 million by a French company wishing
to get a foothold in Canada. Use FW analysis to determine if the MARR will be realized at this
selling price.
b) If the British conglomerate continues to own the chain, what selling price must be obtained at
the end of 5 years of ownership to just make the MARR?
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5.4 Future Worth Analysis 5.4 Future Worth Analysis
Example 5.5 (page 139) Example 5.5 (page 139)
Solution Solution
Set up the FW relation in year 3 (FW3) at i = 25% Determine the future worth 5 years from now at
per year and an offer price of £159.5 million 25% per year
FW3 FW5
5(F/P,25%,1) + 159.5
The offer must be for at least £246.81 million to
Conclusion: make the MARR.
No, the MARR of 25% will not be realized if the This is approximately 3.3 times the purchase price
£159.5 million offer is accepted. only 5 years earlier, in large part based on the
required MARR of 25%.
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5.5 Capitalized Cost Analysis 5.5 Capitalized Cost Analysis
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CHAPTER SUMMARY End of chapter 5
The PW method of comparing alternatives involves converting all cash flows to
Read all definitions and examples
present dollars at the MARR.
The alternative with the numerically larger (or largest) PW value is selected. Do all exercises
When the alternatives have different lives, the comparison must be made for equal- There will be a quiz (Bkel)
service periods.
This is done by performing the comparison over either the LCM of lives or a specific study
period. Both approaches compare alternatives in accordance with the equal-service
requirement.
When a study period is used, any remaining value in an alternative is recognized through the
estimated future market value.
If the life of the alternatives is considered to be very long or infinite, capitalized cost is
the comparison method.
The CC value is calculated as A/i, because the factor reduces to 1 in the limit of n = .
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Engineering Economy
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Learning outcomes 6.1 Advantages and Uses of AW analysis
Utilize different annual worth (AW) techniques to evaluate and
select alternatives.
Demonstrate that the AW value is the same for each life cycle.
When alternatives being compared have different lives, the AW method makes the
Calculate and interpret the capital recovery (CR) and AW amounts. assumptions that
Select the best alternative using AW analysis.
Evaluate alternatives with very long lives using AW analysis
Perform a life-cycle Cost (LCC) analysis using AW method
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6.2 Calculation of Capital Recovery and AW Values 6.2 Calculation of Capital Recovery and AW Values
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6.2 Calculation of Capital Recovery and AW Values 6.2 Calculation of Capital Recovery and AW Values
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6.2 Calculation of Capital Recovery and AW Values 6.3 Evaluating Alternatives by AW Analysis
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Solution Solution
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6.4 AW of a Permanent Investment Example 6.5
Cash flows recurring at regular or irregular intervals are handled
exactly as in conventional AW computations; convert them to
equivalent uniform annual amounts A for one cycle.
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6.5 Life-Cycle Cost Analysis 6.5 Life-Cycle Cost Analysis
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6.5 Life-Cycle Cost Analysis 6.5 Life-Cycle Cost Analysis
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Engineering Economy
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Learning outcomes
State and understand the meaning of rate of return.
Use a PW or AW relation to determine the ROR of a series of cash flows.
State the difficulties of using the ROR method, relative to the PW and
AW methods.
Determine the maximum number of possible ROR values and their
values for a specific cash flow series.
Determine the external rate of return using the techniques of modified
ROR and return on invested capital.
Calculate the nominal and effective rate of return for a bond investment.
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7.1 Interpretation of a Rate of Return Value
Rate of return (ROR) is commonly used to evaluate the desirability of
investments or projects.
Internal rate of return (IROR; IRR)
Return on Investment (ROI)
4 Engineering Economics 5
7.1 Interpretation of a Rate of Return Value 7.1 Interpretation of a Rate of Return Value
Borrower of money, the interest rate is applied to the unpaid balance so that the
Rate of return analysis is the most frequently used exact analysis
total loan amount and interest are paid in full exactly with the last loan payment.
technique in industry.
Lender of money, there is an unrecovered balance of the principal of the loan at
Major advantages each time period. The interest rate is the return on this unrecovered balance so
Rate of return is a single figure of merit that is readily understood. that the total amount lent, and the interest are recovered exactly with the last
Calculation of rate of return is independent from the minimum receipt.
attractive rate of return (MARR).
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7.1 Interpretation of a Rate of Return Value 7.1 Interpretation of a Rate of Return Value
Example 7.1
Explanation: To get started in a new telecommuting position with AB Hammond Engineers, Jane took out a $1000 loan
at i = 10% per year for 4 years to buy home office equipment.
The rate of return is expressed as a percent per period. From the perspective, the investment in this young engineer is expected to produce an equivalent
net cash flow (NCF) of $315.47 for each of 4 years.
i = 10% per year, it is stated as a positive percentage;
A = $1000(A/P,10%,4) = $315.47
the fact that interest paid on a loan is actually a negative rate of return from
This represents a 10% per year rate of return on the unrecovered balance.
the perspective is not considered. Compute the amount of the unrecovered investment for each of the 4 years using:
(a) the rate of return on the unrecovered balance (the correct basis) and
The numerical value of i can range from 100% to infinity, that is, 100% i
(b) the return on the initial $1000 investment.
< . In terms of an investment, a return of i = 100% means the entire (c) Explain why all of the initial $1000 amount is not recovered by the final payment in part (b).
(d) Determine the unrecovered balance after 3 years in Table 7 1 using factors rather than detailing the
amount is lost. amounts for each year.
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7.1 Interpretation of a Rate of Return Value 7.1 Interpretation of a Rate of Return Value
(a) Table 7 1 shows the unrecovered balance of the principal at the end of each year in column 6 using the 10%
rate on the unrecovered balance at the beginning of the year. After 4 years the total $1000 is recovered, and
Guides the balance in column 6 is exactly zero.
(b) Table 7 2 shows the unrecovered balance if the 10% return is always figured on the initial $1000. Column 6
in year 4 shows a remaining unrecovered amount of $138.12 because only $861.88 is recovered in the 4
years (column 5).
(c) As shown in column 3, a total of $400 in interest must be earned if the 10% return each year is based on the
initial amount of $1000. However, only $261.88 in interest must be earned if a 10% return on the unrecovered
balance is used. There is more of the annual cash flow available to reduce the remaining loan when the rate
is applied to the unrecovered balance as in part (a)and Table 7 1. Figure 7 1 illustrates the correct
interpretation of rate of return in Table 7 1. Each year the $315.47 receipt represents 10% interest on the
unrecovered balance in column 2 plus the recovered amount in column 5.
(d) To determine the unrecovered balance after any year in the repayment schedule, simply find the future worth
of the loan principal at the end of the year in question using the F P factor and remove the equivalent future
value of all payments made thus far, 3 years in this case.
For this $1000, 4-year, 10% per year loan, Unrecovered balance, year 3 = -1000(F P,10%,3) +
315.47(F A,10%,3) = -1331.00 + 1044.21 = $-286.79
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7.1 Interpretation of a Rate of Return Value 7.1 INTERPRETATION OF A RATE OF
RETURN VALUE
Given a cash flow stream, IRR is the interest rate i which yields a zero NPW (i.e., the
benefits are equivalent to the costs), or a zero worth at any point in time. This can be
In rate of return problems, you seek an unknown interest rate (i*)
expressed in 5 different ways as follows.
that satisfies the following:
NPW = 0
PWi*(+ cash flows) PWi*( - cash flows) = 0
PW of benefits PW of costs = 0
PW of benefits = PW of costs This means that the interest rate i*, is an unknown parameter and
must be solved or approximated.
PW of benefits/PW of costs = 1
EUAB EUAC = 0
EUAC = Equivalent Uniform Annual Cost
EUAB = Equivalent Uniform Annual Benefit
Engineering Economics 14 15
7.2 Rate of Return Calculation Using a PW 7.2 Rate of Return Calculation Using a PW
or AW Relation or AW Relation
The annual worth approach utilizes the AW values in the same The i value that makes these equations numerically correct is
fashion to solve for i
called i*.
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7.2 Rate of Return Calculation Using a PW 7.2 Rate of Return Calculation Using a PW
or AW Relation or AW Relation
i* Using Trial and Error
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7.2 Rate of Return Calculation Using a PW
or AW Relation
Example: Find the IRR of this machine
Machine A
Initial cost $20,000
Life 5 years
Salvage value $4,000
Annual receipts $10,000
Annual disbursements $4,400
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7.2 Rate of Return Calculation Using a PW 7.3 Special Considerations When Using
or AW Relation the ROR Method
PW(i%) = -$20,000 + ($10,000 - $4,400)(P/A, i%, 5) + $4,000(P/F, i%, 5) = 0
Try i = 10%:
PW(i%) = -$20,000 + ($10,000 - $4,400)(P/A, 10%, 5) + $4,000(P/F, 10%, 5) Some assumptions and special considerations with ROR
= $3,374.63 > 0 analysis:
Try i = 15%: Multiple i* values.
PW(i%) = -$20,000 + ($10,000 - $4,400)(P/A, 15%, 5) + $4,000(P/F, 15%, 5)
= $661.54 > 0 Reinvestment at i*.
Try i = 18%: Different procedure for multiple alternative evaluations.
PW(i%) = -$20,000 + ($10,000 - $4,400)(P/A, 18%, 5) + $4,000(P/F, 18%, 5)
= - $626.61 < 0
I*=ROR= 16.4763%
Verify with Excel function
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7.4 Multiple Rate of Return Values 7.4 Multiple Rate of Return Values
There is more than
one sign change in Two tests to perform in sequence on the nonconventional series to
the net cash flows, it determine if there is one unique value or possibly multiple i* values
conventional nonconventional
is possible that there
that are real numbers.
will be multiple i*
values in the -100% to Test 1: rule of signs states that the total number of real-number
plus infinity range. roots is always less than or equal to the number of sign changes in the series.
Test 2: Cumulative cash flow sign test, also known as criterion,
states that only one sign change in a series of cumulative cash flows which
starts negatively indicates that there is one positive root to the polynomial
relation.
7.5 Techniques to Remove Multiple Rates 7.5 Techniques to Remove Multiple Rates of Return
of Return
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7.6 Rate of Return of a Bond Investment 7.6 Rate of Return of a Bond Investment
Bond a long term note issued by a corporation or a government entity (the borrower)
to finance major projects.
The borrower receives money now in return for a promise to pay the face value V of the
bond on a stated maturity date.
Bonds are usually issued in face value amounts of $1000, $5000, or $10,000.
Bond dividend I, also called bond interest, is paid periodically between the time the
money is borrowed and the time the face value is repaid. The bond dividend is paid c
times per year. Expected payment periods are usually semiannually or quarterly.
The amount of interest is determined using the stated dividend or interest rate, called the
bond coupon rate b.
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8
Engineering Economy
ME2045
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8.1 Why Incremental Analysis Is
Learning outcomes Necessary
State why the ROR method of comparing alternatives requires an incremental cash
flow analysis. Assume we have two or more mutually exclusive alternatives
Calculate the incremental cash flow series for two alternatives.
Objective: Which, if any of the alternatives is preferred?
Interpret the meaning of the incremental ROR ( *) determined from the incremental
cash flow series. Prior Chapters: Use the PW or AW approach
Based on a PW relation, select the better of two alternatives using incremental ROR
analysis or a breakeven ROR value. Last chapter: We apply the ROR approach
Select the better of two alternatives using incremental ROR analysis based on an AW Present Worth: Equal service lives must apply
relation.
Select the best from several alternatives using incremental ROR analysis.
Use a single spreadsheet to perform PW, AW, ROR, and incremental ROR analyses
for mutually exclusive and independent alternatives.
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8.1 Two Projects; A and B 8.1 Example Problem
A $120 i*A = 0.20 = 20% Using ROR, A is superior to B
0 1 2 3 4 5 i*B = 0.15 = 15% Using PW, B is superior to A
B
PWB(10%) = +24.89
0 1 2 3 4 5
$100
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8.2 Calculation of Incremental Cash Flows
8.1 Why Incremental Analysis Is Necessary
for ROR Analysis
Given two or more alternatives
Under some circumstances, project ROR values do not provide
the same ranking of alternatives as do PW and AW analyses. Rank the investments based upon their initial time t = 0
This situation does not occur if we conduct an incremental ROR investment requirements
analysis
Summarize the investments in a tabular format
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8.2 Calculation of Incremental Cash Flows 8.2 Calculation of Incremental Cash Flows for ROR Analysis
for ROR Analysis
Given two or more alternatives
Rank the investments based upon their initial time t = 0
investment requirements
Summarize the investments in a tabular format
Revenue alternative, where there are both negative and positive cash flows
Cost alternative, where all cash flow estimates are negative
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EXAMPLE 8.1 EXAMPLE 8.1
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8.3 Interpretation of Rate of Return on the 8.3 Interpretation of Rate of Return on the
Extra Investment Extra Investment
consider the ROR on the incremental cash flow series between two
alternatives B and A. The incremental ROR value, identified as i*B A, and
discussed further below, has a predictable relation to individual alternative
The i*incremental is the ROR of the additional or incremental investment ROR values in weighted average calculations like those presented in
required to move from one project to the next most- costly project. Section 8.1.
If the i*incremental value is < MARR, the increment is not worth it. Go with to Alternative B has a larger initial investment than A:
RORB <ROR A, then i*B A < RORB.
lower investment cash flow.
RORB > RORA, then i*B A > RORB
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8.4 Rate of Return Evaluation Using PW: 8.4 Rate of Return Evaluation Using PW:
Incremental and Breakeven (Two Alternatives) Incremental and Breakeven (Two Alternatives)
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EXAMPLE 8.3 EXAMPLE 8.3
Step 3 Step 4, 5, 6
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8.5 Rate of Return Evaluation Using AW 8.5 Rate of Return Evaluation Using AW
ROR approach requires comparison over an equal-service life
When the lives are equal or unequal set up the AW relationship
for the cash flows of each alternative
Then solve 0 = AWB AWA for the i* value
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8.6 Incremental ROR Analysis of Multiple 8.6 Incremental ROR Analysis of Multiple
(More than Two) Alternatives (More than Two) Alternatives
Select the one alternative that:
A given alternative should not be compared with one alternative
Requires the largest investment for which the incremental investment is not justified
And indicates that the extra investment over another If a given alternative loses out in a comparison, that alternative
acceptable alternative is justified is dropped from further consideration.
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8.6 Incremental ROR Analysis of Multiple 8.6 Incremental ROR Analysis of Multiple
(More than Two) Alternatives (More than Two) Alternatives
1. Order the alternatives from smallest to largest initial 4. Compute the i* value for all alternatives in the considered
investment.
set.
2. Compute the cash flows for each alternative (assume or
create equal lives). If any alternative has an i* < MARR, drop it from further consideration
3. If the alternatives are revenue-cost alternatives do the The candidate set will be those alternatives with computed i* values >
following
MARR.
Call this the FEASIBLE set
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8.6 Incremental ROR Analysis of Multiple 8.6 Incremental ROR Analysis of Multiple
(More than Two) Alternatives (More than Two) Alternatives
Calculate i* for the first alternative
4. Compute i*Challenger Defender
The first alternative is called the DEFENDER If i*Challenger Defender > MARR, drop the defender and the challenger
wins the current round.
The second (next higher investment cost) alternative is
5. If i* Challenger Defender < MARR, drop the challenger and the defender
called the CHALLENGER moves on to the next comparison round
At each round, a winner is determined
Compute the incremental cash flow as
Either be the current Defender or the current challenger
(Challenger Defender) The winner of a given round moves to the next round and becomes
the current DEFENDER and is compared to the next challenger
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8.6 Incremental ROR Analysis of Multiple
(More than Two) Alternatives
Example 8.7
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