TRAFFIC STREAMS BEHAVIOURS AND THEIR ANALYSES

1. SHOCK WAVES IN TRAFFIC STREAMS

1.1. INTRODUCTION

 Shock waves are the boundary conditions, which demark discontinuity in the flow – density
conditions in the time-space domain.

 They can be explained as the transition zones between two traffic states moving through a
traffic environment like a propagating wave.

 It comes as a result of congestion and queuing.

 As drivers pass through a shock wave, the sudden change of conditions they experience gives
a major concern (for the transport agency).

 To understand the concept of shock waves, consider a traffic stream on a road at a given
flow, density and speed.

q (veh/h)

3
1400

1200 2

1
1000
m2 = 10

m1 = 40

25 70 120
k (veh/km)

 Point 1 corresponds to a flow q1 = 1000 veh/h and density k1 = 25 veh/km. Its speed is
therefore u1 = 40 km/h.

1000 1000
 The average space headway is therefore d   40m
k 25
 Imagine a heavy truck enters the stream, moving at a much lower speed of 10 km/h and
that overtaking is not possible.

 The vehicles that follow the truck will therefore be forced to slow down to match the
speed of the truck and will soon form a platoon of vehicles travelling at a speed of 10
km/h.

 The platoon will grow behind the truck as vehicles join at the rear side.

 The slowing down will make the drivers to adjust their spacing creating a higher
density, which corresponds to point 2.

 The platoon speed is the slope of the chord O – 2.

 The platoon is defined by the front of the slow moving truck and the rear of the last
vehicle to join the platoon.

 The stream now consists of slow moving vehicles (at 10 km/h) at high density (passing
the capacity point) and keeps on growing as more vehicles join.

 Note that there are two boundaries separating three traffic conditions;

 In front of the truck where traffic conditions are at free flow (zero density)

 Between the front of the truck and the rear of the last vehicle where the platoon
flows at slow speed.

 Behind the last vehicle of the platoon where the traffic conditions are at 40 km/h
and the density is 25 veh/km.

Distance
Vehicle in front of the truck

A
Truck

m1 = 40

m2 = 10

A
B’ B’

t0 Time

TRAFFIC ENGINEERING Page 2 TOMEKA C. L. T. G.

  In this example, there are two shock waves demarking the three traffic conditions.

 These shock waves are shown by line AA, which demarcates the platoon conditions from
the free flow conditions in front of the truck.

 The second is shown by the line BB, which demarcates the platoon from the approach
conditions (B’ – B’ is shown only for illustration as the point at which vehicles join the
platoon moves relative to the road).

 Both shock waves in this example (AA and BB) move with time in relation to the
roadway.

 The rate at which the platoon grows depends on the relative speeds of the two shock
waves A - A and B - B.

 If it happens that the truck clears the way (either by accelerating or exiting the highway),
the vehicles in the platoon (once stuck behind the truck) will be free to accelerate giving rise
to another shock wave between the released conditions and the platoon conditions.

 The speed of the shock wave is given by the slope of the chord, which connects the two
stream conditions e.g. points 1 and 2 in the above diagram.

q2  q1
usw  Where 1 and 2 are the two conditions in the direction of the traffic movement
k 2  k1

 This equation gives three possible cases (with respect to the roadway);

 If usw is positive, the shock wave is travelling in the stream direction.

 If usw is zero, the shock wave is stationary.

 If usw is negative, the shock wave is moving in the upstream direction.

 This effect is usually studied using the queuing theory.

1.2. TYPES OF SHOCK WAVES

 There are six different types of shock waves as a result of the way and the conditions under
which they are formed.

 Consider a lane leading to a traffic signal controlled intersection where the signal turns red.

 If we consider a situation where vehicles arrive at a constant rate but at a demand that is
lower than the signal capacity (meaning the lane is lightly trafficked),

 Conditions of free flow exist after the signal (i.e. downstream) and some distance on
the upstream.

 A queue will be formed behind the signal (from the stop-line) with traffic densities
exceeding those on the free flow sections.

 A shock wave will form and will be moving backwards as vehicles join the rear of the
stopped queue.

TRAFFIC ENGINEERING Page 3 TOMEKA C. L. T. G.

  This shock wave is called the Backward Forming Shock Wave (or Backward Moving
Shock Wave), a shock wave that moves backwards while forming congestion.

 When the signal turns green, the stopped vehicles will start moving and another shock wave
will be formed, which will also be moving backward, but it will be removing the congestion.

 This shock wave will be releasing the congestion and is called the Backward Recovery
Shock Wave, a Shock Wave that recovers the congestion.

 At the stop line, during the red signal there will be a shock wave that is not moving at all
(i.e. Stationary Shock Wave).

 This shock wave being at the front of the congested section (the downstream of the
congested area) is called the Frontal Stationary Shock Wave.

 It is stationary since it remains in the same position during its existence.

 This example gives us the first three types of shock waves, namely;

 The Frontal Stationary Shock Wave.

 The Backward Forming Shock Wave.

 The Backward Recovery Shock Wave.

 Consider a situation where the demand increases to a point that it is equal to the capacity of
the signal (i.e. a point where the length of the congested area remains constant as the input
and output become equal).

 This situation will result into another Stationary Shock Wave at the rear of the congested
area called the Rear Stationary Shock Wave.

 If the demand drops again to a value below the intersection capacity, a forward recovery
shock wave will be formed and when this Shock Wave meets the Frontal Stationary Shock
Wave, it will end the congestion period.

 To summarise the above discussion and introduce the remaining types of shock waves, we
have the following;

 Frontal Stationary Shock Wave: This is always present at a location of the bottleneck
where the traffic demand exceeds the capacity.

This may be a result of recurring or non-recurring

incident.

 Backward Forming Shock Wave: This is always present where congestion occurs.

This shock wave shows the space and the time

where the excess demand is being stored.

The densities are lower to the felt of the is shock

wave on the time-space diagram, and higher to
the right.

TRAFFIC ENGINEERING Page 4 TOMEKA C. L. T. G.

 Forward Recovery Shock Wave: This shock wave occurs when the demand is
decreasing below the bottleneck capacity.

As the demand decreases, the length of the

congestion gets reduced.

The shock wave moves (over time) forward in the

direction of the traffic.

Densities are higher on the left of the shock wave

and lower on the right.

Over time the free flow conditions extend farther

downstream.

 Rear Stationary Shock Wave: This shock wave occurs if the arriving traffic demand
and the flow in the congested section are equal for
some time.

In such a case, the shock wave remains stationary at

the back of the congested section.

 Backward Recovery Shock Wave: This shock wave occurs when the capacity of the
bottleneck increases and exceeds the flow within the
congested section.

The shock wave moves backwards against the traffic

direction and the free flow conditions extend farther
upstream.

The densities are higher to the left of the shock wave

and lower to the right.

 Forward Forming Shock Wave: This is a shock wave, which moves in the same
direction with the traffic.

The densities are lower to the left and higher to the

right of the shock wave.

TRAFFIC ENGINEERING Page 5 TOMEKA C. L. T. G.

1.3. ANALYSIS OF SHOCK WAVES AT A SIGNALISED INTERSECTION

 Analysis of shock waves at a signalised intersection is of interest to traffic engineers due to

the possibility of traffic queues that may interfere upstream flow movements, like;

 Queue length that may affect the operations of the nearby intersection.

 Queue length in the right turning lane that may extend into the through traffic lanes.

NOTE: The shock wave speeds ωij are the slopes of the shock wave vectors.

 Consider the traffic at a signalised intersection, the speeds of the various shock waves can be
calculated as follows;

q 2 - q1 0 - q1 q1 q1 - q 3 q1 - 0 q1
ω12 = = = = u1 and ω13 = = =
k 2 - k1 0 - k1 k1 k1 - k 3 k1 - k j k1 - k j

q 2 - q3 0-0
ω 23 = = =0 NOTE: This is a stationary shock wave.
k2 - k3 0 - k j

q2 - q4 0 - q4 q4 q3 - q 4 0 - q 4 - q4
ω24 = = = = u4 and ω34 = = =
k2 - k4 0 - k4 k4 k3 - k 4 k j - k 4 k j - k 4

 If r is the time length of the red signal, then the length of the queue at the end of the red
signal is the length EL, which can be calculated from;

r  q1
EL  r  ω13  and r = t 2 - t1
k1 - k j

TRAFFIC ENGINEERING Page 6 TOMEKA C. L. T. G.

 The maximum queue length occurs at time t3, having a length QT whose magnitude can be
derived (or calculated) as follows;

As the speed of the shock wave is the slope of wave on the space diagram, speeds ω13 and
ω34 can be defined by the angles φ and γ respectively as follows;

QT QT
tanφ  ω13  and tan γ  ω34  Which gives
r  EQ EQ

QT
QT  tan φ  r  EQ  but EQ  making
tan γ

QT tanφ QT QT  1 1 
QT  r tanφ  and so r   QT   
tan γ tanφ tan γ  tanφ tan γ 

r r tan γ tanφ r  ω34 ω13 

QT   and so QT     1000 (in m)
1 1 tan γ  tanφ 3600  ω34  ω13 

tanφ tan γ

NOTE: T is also a location where the queue is dissipated.

 The length of the queue at the end of the red signal is given by the length EL and is
calculated from;

EL  rω13

 The time taken for the maximum length of the queue to form is the distance t1 to t3, which
can be calculated from;

r  EQ  r   t 3  t 2 

 The length EQ is the time after the red signal that is taken to form the maximum queue
length and is calculated from;

QT rω13ω34  ω13 
EQ  t 3  t 2  r  r  r  
tanφ ω13  ω34  ω13   ω34  ω13 

 Another interesting value is the (length of) time from the beginning of the green phase to a
point where the vehicles pass the stop line at the same rate as the upstream flow (i.e. time
t2 to t4 where the discharge drops below the saturation flow).

 Note that at t4, the forward recovery shock wave crosses the stop line.

 This time can be derived (or calculated) as follows;

rω13 rω13 ω34 QT

t 4  t 2  EQ  QS   since tan α  ω14  Which gives
ω34  ω13  ω34  ω13  ω14 QS

rω13  ω 
t4  t2   1  34 
ω 34  ω13  ω14 

TRAFFIC ENGINEERING Page 7 TOMEKA C. L. T. G.

Example 01:

During the morning peak hours, vehicles arrive at the Hosea Kutako/John Meinert signalised
intersection from the northern industrial side at a flow rate of 1800 veh/h/lane with a speed
of 60 km/h. The lanes get jammed at a density of 155 veh/km. At saturation, the road is
known to carry 2100 veh/h/lane with the density of 82 veh/km. If the red signal time is 20
seconds, calculate;

i. The queue length when the green phase starts.

ii. The maximum length of the queue.
iii. The time needed to clear the queue when the green signal starts.
iv. If the green signal also takes 20 seconds, can the queue get dissipated?

TRAFFIC ENGINEERING Page 8 TOMEKA C. L. T. G.

 2. TRAFFIC QUEUING
2.1. INTRODUCTION

 Queuing is a traffic behaviour, which normally occurs on the upper stream of a section of the
road where the demand exceeds the available capacity.

 The cause of the capacity reduction of the road is called a server in the queuing theory or
simply a restriction.

 When traffic queues are not properly handled or dealt with, they can result in congestion of
the road network.

 Common places where traffic queues occur include;

 At the red lights

 At the stop signs
 At the bottlenecks
 Entrance or exit of parking lot, main bus terminal etc.
 Vehicles at a station waiting to load or unload passengers
 At any constriction, whether design-based or traffic-based.

 Examples of the causes of traffic queue generation include;

 Geometric bottlenecks (e.g. lane reduction)

 Intersection controls and traffic signals

 At-grade crossings with other modes (e.g. railway crossing or pedestrian crossing)

 Unfavourable weather conditions

 Weighing bridges and toll booths

 Road block controls

 Queuing results in delays and hence affects the travel times.

 This effect is usually studied using the queuing theory.

2.2. QUEUING THEORY

 Queuing is a common phenomenon in everyday life and can simply be defined as a line
of customers waiting for the service.

 Queuing theory involves analysis of a queuing systems (i.e. systems that involve waiting
lines), and for traffic applications, they are made of;

 A stream of vehicles (or customers) who arrive at the service point in need of the
service.

 A queue, which is a line of vehicles (or customers) waiting to be served.

 A server, which is a facility that serves the vehicles (or customers) in the queue.

TRAFFIC ENGINEERING Page 9 TOMEKA C. L. T. G.

 In queuing theory, the order with which customers arrive at the service point in
relation to the order in which they are served is called the Queuing Discipline.

 For transportation application, the common discipline used is that of First – In, First –
Out (normally referred to as FIFO or FCFS).

 The stream of the vehicles (or customers) arriving at the point of service (called
Arrivals) is defined by arrival function A(t).

 After being served, the vehicles (or customers) will depart from the point of service
and if the service time is known, then the departure function D(t) can be defined.

 The arrival and departure vehicles (or customers) in the queuing system can either be

 Predictable or uniform: An event that is predictable is technically said to be

Deterministic event and is denoted by a letter D.

OR

 Random An event that occurs randomly is technically said to

be Stochastic event and is denoted by a letter M.

 These references define the types of queuing models that are used in the study of
queue behaviours and the determination of the basic traffic properties.

 The queuing models are described using three alpha-numeric characters, which denote
the following;

 The first character (a letter) denotes the assumption made on the arrival rate (D
or M).

 The second character (a letter as well) denotes the assumption made on the
departure rate (D or M).

 The third character (a number) denotes the number of service channels

(departure routes).

Examples of the queuing models:

 The model D/D/1 will mean the model assumes deterministic arrivals, deterministic
departures with one service channel (departures route).

 queuing models that are commonly used in traffic engineering include;

 D/D/1 queuing model. This is a deterministic model

 M/D/1 queuing model. This is a stochastic model

 M/M/1 queuing model. This is a stochastic model

 M/M/N queuing model. This is a stochastic model

TRAFFIC ENGINEERING Page 10 TOMEKA C. L. T. G.

 2.2.1. THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL – D/D/1

 This model assumes deterministic arrivals, deterministic departures with one

departures route (deterministic model).

 This is to say, the arrival and the service (and hence the departures) functions
vary over time in some known way.

 It is a simple model whose problems can easily be solved graphically or

mathematically.

QUEUE
QUEUE DIAGRAM
DIAGRAM
At
At time
time t,t,
Vehicles
Arriving Vehicles

There
There was
was aa total
total of
of nnaa vehicles
vehicles that
that arrived,
arrived, and
and
There
There was
was aa total of nndd vehicles
total of vehicles departed
departed
This
This resulted
resulted aa queue
queue length
length ofof nnaa –– nndd vehicles
vehicles
of Arriving

...
... Arrival
ArrivalFunction
Function A(t)
A(t)

100
Number of

100
Number

nnaa
80
80
Queue
Queue

60
60 Departure
DepartureFunction
Function D(t)
D(t)
nndd
40
40 nn Delay
Delay
The nnthth vehicle
The vehicle arrived
arrived at
at tt11 and
and departed
departed at
at tt22..
20
20 This
This resulted
resulted aa delay of tt22 –– tt11 minutes
delay of minutes

00 tt11 tt22 tt
00 22 44 66 88 10 ...
...
10
Time
Time (min)
(min)

Example 02:

The traffic police take 15 seconds to check the vehicles travelling from Okahandja to
Windhoek during the morning peak hour at the road block. The vehicles were observed to
arrive at the rate of 420 vehicles per hour at 07:00 dropping to 150 vehicles per hour at
07:30, which further dropped to 90 vehicles per hour at 08:00. Calculate;

i. The maximum time needed to clear the queue that was formed.
ii. The maximum queue length.
iii. The average delay per vehicle.
iv. The average queue length.

TRAFFIC ENGINEERING Page 11 TOMEKA C. L. T. G.

TRAFFIC ENGINEERING Page 12 TOMEKA C. L. T. G.
2.2.2. THE STOCHASTIC MODELS

 However, when either arrival rate, service rate (departures) or both occur at
random, the exact arrival or service time become unknown and hence the
stochastic queuing models are to be used.

 The random event (arrival, services or both) are exponentially distributed by

following poison distribution.

 Parameters (queuing characteristics which are of interest when using

stochastic queuing model includes

 Q the average queue size (in the number of vehicles), which includes
the vehicles currently being served.

 w the average waiting time per vehicle in a queue(i.e. excluding the

service time

 t the average queuing time (total delay) which includes the waiting
time w and the service time

 Position distribution is defined by a function

 t 
n
et
P(n) 
n!

Where: P(n) probability of n vehicles arriving (or being served) in time

interval t
λ Mean arrival (or service) rate in time interval t
t time interval over which vehicles are observed
n number of incident vehicles
e mathematical constant which is the base of the natural
logarithm (also called Euler’s number e = 2.71828)

 These parameters can be calculated once the following values are known (or
estimated)

  = the average arrival rate of vehicles at the queuing system

 µ = the average service rate (average departure rate) per channel.

 These estimated values define three conditions of the queuing system.

  <  The system is said to be undersaturated

  =  The system is said to be saturated

  >  The system is said to be oversaturated

 The ratio of these two values is termed as the traffic intensity(or utilisation
ratio) and is given by:

TRAFFIC ENGINEERING Page 13 TOMEKA C. L. T. G.

 



 This ratio must be less than 1.0 (under saturated system) for the stochastic
models to be useful.

2.2.2.1. THE M/D/1 MODEL

The queue elements can be calculated from the following equations;

2
Q
2(1  )


w
2(1  )

2
t
2(1  )

2.2.2.2. THE M/M/1 MODEL

2
Q (The mean number of customers in queue – queue size using Little’s Law)
(1  )

 
w 
(   ) (1  )

1 1
t 
   (1  )

 In addition to these properties, M/M/1 model has the following additional

properties

P  n   n 1    (Probability of having n vehicles in the system)

λ
E n  (Expected number of vehicles in the system)
μλ

λ2
E m   (Mean queue length)
μ μ  λ 

P  w  t   1  ρe  
 λt 1ρ
(Probability of spending time t or less in a queue)

P  v  t   1 e  
 λt 1ρ
(Probability of spending time t or less in a system)

P  n  N  ρN1 (Probability of having more than N vehicles in a queue)

TRAFFIC ENGINEERING Page 14 TOMEKA C. L. T. G.

NOTE:

– In both stochastic models above, the three parameters approach infinity when the
system approaches saturation point (i.e. when λ = µ)

– This is due to the assumption that arrival rate continues indefinitely for the period
of time.

– This is not true where there is a definite non-random peak arrival rate that exceeds
the capacity of the server.

– The validity of these models therefore requires that the system remains
undersaturated.

CAPACITATED QUEUES OR FINITE QUEUES

 When a queue allows for a certain maximum number of vehicles to wait, it is termed
as Capacitated (or Finite) Queue.

 These types of queues have different properties compared to the previously

discussed M/M/1 stochastic (uncapacitated) queues.

 Additional M/M/1 queue properties when a queue is capacitated having a maximum

number of vehicles N are;

n 1   
P n  (Probability of having n vehicles in the system)
1  N1

ρ 1  N  1 ρN  NρN1 
E n    (Expected number of vehicles in the system)
1  ρ  1  ρN1
2.2.2.3. THE M/M/N MODEL

M/M/N is a generalised queue model, where there are N departure

channels.

A good example where such a queuing system can be seen is the security
checks at major airports.

The three general queue elements are calculated from the following
equations.

 
P0N1  1 
Q
N!N  1   2 
 N 

ρQ 1
w 
λ μ

ρQ
t
λ

TRAFFIC ENGINEERING Page 15 TOMEKA C. L. T. G.

 Other characteristics of the M/M/N queuing system are as follows;

1
P 0  N1
nc
N

nc  0 nc !

N! 1  N 

P  0  n
P n  for nN
n!

P  0  n
P n  for nN
N!NnN

P  0  N1
P  n  N 
N!N 1  N 

Where: P(0) = probability of having no vehicle in the system

P(n) = probability of having n vehicles in the system
P(n>N) = probability that the number of vehicles in the
system is greater than the number of departure
channel (i.e. the probability of waiting in a queue)
n = number of vehicles in the system
N = number of departure channels
nc = departure channel number
ρ = traffic intensity

TRAFFIC ENGINEERING Page 16 TOMEKA C. L. T. G.

EXAMPLE 03:

Each vehicle exiting from the Wernhill park mall spends 24 s to do payment. Vehicles arrive at
an average rate of 2 vehicles every minute and only one exit outlet is open.

i. Using the M/M/1 model calculate

a. The average queue size Q

b. The average waiting time w
c. The average total delay t
d. The probability of having 4 vehicles in the queue.

ii. Using the M/D/1 model calculate

a. The average queue size Q

b. The average waiting time w
c. The average total delay t

TRAFFIC ENGINEERING Page 17 TOMEKA C. L. T. G.

EXAMPLE 04: Capacitated queuing

a. A ramp can hold 40 vehicles before spilling over. During non-peak periods,
the arrival rate on the ramp was 240 vehicles per hour. The entry of the
vehicle on the high speed highway from the ramp allows 250 vehicles per
hour. Determine

i. The probability of the ramp to be empty, half-full and full.

ii. The expected number of vehicles on the ramp.

TRAFFIC ENGINEERING Page 18 TOMEKA C. L. T. G.

 3. GAPS AND GAP ACCEPTANCE

3.1. INTRODUCTION

 A gap in a traffic stream is the space that separates two vehicles that flow next to each
other.

 It can be considered as headway, though the space considered is that from the end of the
front vehicle to the front of the following vehicle.

 Gaps exist between vehicles as they move in a stream and hence they are microscopic
parameters.

 Availability of gaps is an important factor for drivers when deciding to make manoeuvres on
the road.

 Such decisions are not only based on the availability of the gaps (as they are always
available), but their sizes which to the driver’s judgement, they have to be adequate for the
intended manoeuvre to be completed.

 Manoeuvres that need the availability of a traffic gaps in a traffic stream include;

 Merging.

 Weaving.

 Lane changing in multilane highways.

 Permitted right turning in signalised intersections.

 Crossing manoeuvres at un-signalised intersections.

 Pedestrians crossing at a point that is uncontrolled (by signal or signs).

 When a driver is presented with a gap, he has only two possible choices to make;

 Accept the gap, or

 Reject the gaps (and wait for the next available gap)

 Traffic gaps are measured in terms of;

 The time units: This defines the time gaps, or

 The distance units: This defines the space gaps

 It is the time gaps that are important for the drivers in making judgements for their
manoeuvres.

 In for example, waiting vehicles from a minor road that intend to merge into a traffic stream
on the major road, the waiting drivers have the option of accepting the available gap and use
it for their manoeuvres or rejecting it.

TRAFFIC ENGINEERING Page 19 TOMEKA C. L. T. G.

  The concept of gap acceptance is therefore very important when evaluating the operations of
a road section, which needs the above mentioned manoeuvres to be made and therefore they
may affect characteristics like,

 Waiting time,

 Queue lengths, and

 Delays

 These characteristics are very important when analysing for example priority intersections.

3.2. THE CONCEPT OF THE CRITICAL GAP

 To be able to use the concept of gap acceptance, it is first necessary to define and
understand the critical gap.

 A critical gap is defined as the minimum time interval in the main traffic stream that allows
one vehicle from the minor street (a waiting vehicle) to enter the main traffic stream.

 For a gap, which is less than the critical gap drivers will reject it while a gap that is equal to
or greater than the critical gap they will accepted it.

 If the available gap is large enough to allow more than one vehicle to enter (merge with) the
main traffic stream, the additional gap (to the critical gap) is called the follow up time.

 The Highway Capacity Manual 2000 gives equations for the determination of the critical gaps
and follow-up times as well as the base values as follows;

t cx  t cb  t cHVPHV  tcGG  t cT  t 3LT

 tcb = base critical gap, s

 tcHV= critical gap adjustment for heavy vehicles, s
 PHV= proportion of heavy vehicles
 tcG= critical gap adjustment for grade, s
 G = grade, decimal or percent/100
 tcT = critical gap adjustment for 2 stage gap acceptance, s
 t3LT = critical gap adjustment for intersection geometry, s

t fx  t fb  t fHVPHV

 tfb = base follow up time, s

 tfHV = follow-up time adjustment for heavy vehicles, s

 If the frequency of the arrival of gaps that are equal to or greater than the critical gap is
known, then it is possible to determine the delay of the vehicles in the minor road that are
intending to merge onto the main traffic stream.

 For the light and medium traffic flow on a highway the arrival of vehicles is random and
usually assumed to take the Poisson distribution.

μx eμ
Px 
x!

TRAFFIC ENGINEERING Page 20 TOMEKA C. L. T. G.

 Where P(x) = the probability of x vehicles arriving in time t second

µ = the average number of vehicles arriving in time t seconds.

 If for the known time T seconds the total number of vehicles that arrived is V, then the
average number of vehicles  that arrived per second is given by;

V
λ and μ  λt
T

 The waiting vehicle can only merge into the main traffic stream if there is a gap of t seconds,
which is equal to or greater than the critical gap.

 This is only true if within the time period t seconds there will be no vehicle that has arrived.

 The probability for this to happen (i.e. x = 0 in time h  t) is given by;

 λt 
0
e λt
P  x  0   P  0   P h  t    e λt
0!

P  h  t   e λt This is the probability of getting acceptable gaps

 Note two things with the last equation, first it is an exponential distribution and secondly it is
a continuous function as t is a continuous variable (its domain being from 0 to ).

 If the number of vehicles arriving during time T is V the number of gaps, which will occur
between this number of successive vehicle will be (V – 1).

 The proportion of these gaps that will be accepted by the drivers (i.e. they are equal or
greater than the critical gap t) will be;

N  h  t    V  1 e λt where N = the frequency (the number of gaps).

 Since the total probability is 1.0, then the probability of rejected gaps can be found from;

P  h  t   1  e λt

And therefore;


N  h  t    V  1 1  e  λt 
 When the main stream is characterised by heavy flow, the analysis of the gap sizes gives
some discrepancies when the gaps are shorter than 1 second.

 This is because of the fact that such gaps do not occur in practice as drivers tend to keep a
safe distance from the front vehicle.

 This reality is handled by introducing a minimum gap to restrict the range of the headway.

 In so doing, the probabilities of the gaps being accepted and rejected become;

TRAFFIC ENGINEERING Page 21 TOMEKA C. L. T. G.

 P h  t   e
 λ t  τ 
and

P h  t   1  e
 λ t  τ 

Where τ = the minimum gap that has been introduced.

 The frequencies of the gaps become;

N  h  t    V  1 e
 λ t τ 

and

N  h  t    V  1 1  e   λ t  τ 

Example 05:

The peak hour flow within the merging section of a highway is 1620 veh/h. Arrivals of the
vehicles on the highway is assumed to be described by the Poisson distribution. If the
critical gap for the merging vehicles is 3.25 seconds, determine the number of acceptable
gaps for the waiting vehicles.

Example 05:

Heavy traffic flow near the merging area of a highway flows at 2250 veh/h. The minimum
gap in the main traffic stream is 0.5 seconds while the critical gap for the merging
vehicles is 3.5 seconds.

Determine the number of acceptable gaps for the waiting vehicles.

TRAFFIC ENGINEERING Page 22 TOMEKA C. L. T. G.