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 Contents
Overview Learning from Data 2
Statistics—It’s All About Variability 3
Overview Example: Monitoring Water Quality 3
The Data Analysis Process 4
Goals for Student Learning 6
The Structure of the Chapters that Follow 7

section I Collecting Data

chapter 1 Collecting Data in Reasonable Ways 8

Preview 8
Chapter Learning Objectives 9
1.1 Statistical Studies: Observation and Experimentation 9
1.2 Collecting Data: Planning an Observational Study 13
1.3 Collecting Data Planning an Experiment 22
1.4 The Importance of Random Selection and Random Assignment: What Types
of Conclusions are Reasonable? 31
1.5 Avoid These Common Mistakes 35
Chapter Activities 36
Exploring the Big Ideas 37
Are You Ready to Move On? Chapter 1 Review Exercises 38

section Ii Describing Data Distributions

chapter 2 Graphical Methods for Describing Data Distributions 44

Preview 44
Chapter Learning Objectives 45
2.1 Selecting an Appropriate Graphical Display 46
2.2 Displaying Categorical Data: Bar Charts and Comparative Bar Charts 50
2.3 Displaying Numerical Data: Dotplots, Stem-and-Leaf Displays, and Histograms 56
2.4 Displaying Bivariate Numerical Data: Scatterplots and Time Series Plots 81
2.5 Graphical Displays in the Media 86
2.6 Avoid These Common Mistakes 92
Chapter Activities 95
Exploring the Big Ideas 96
Are You Ready to Move On? Chapter 2 Review Exercises 98
Technology Notes 102

vi
 Contents vii

chapter 3 Numerical Methods for Describing Data Distributions 110

Preview 110
Chapter Learning Objectives 111
3.1 Selecting Appropriate Numerical Summaries 112
3.2 Describing Center and Spread for Data Distributions That Are Approximately
Symmetric 115
3.3 Describing Center and Spread for Data Distributions
That Are Skewed or Have Outliers 124
3.4 Summarizing a Data Set: Boxplots 131
3.5 Measures of Relative Standing: z-scores and Percentiles 142
3.6 Avoid These Common Mistakes 146
Chapter Activities 147
Exploring the Big Ideas 148
Are You Ready to Move On? Chapter 3 Review Exercises 150
Technology Notes 152

chapter 4 Describing Bivariate Numerical Data 158

Preview 158
Chapter Learning Objectives 159
4.1 Correlation 160
4.2 Linear Regression: Fitting a Line to Bivariate Data 176
4.3 Assessing the Fit of a Line 189
4.4 Describing Linear Relationships and Making Predictions—Putting It All Together 207
4.5 Avoid These Common Mistakes 209
Chapter Activities 210
Exploring the Big Ideas 211
Are You Ready to Move On? Chapter 4 Review Exercises 212
Technology Notes 216
Want to Know More? See Chapter 4 Online Materials for coverage of Logistic Regression.

section Iii A Foundation for Inference: Reasoning

about Probability

chapter 5 Probability 220

Preview 220
Chapter Learning Objectives 221
5.1 Interpreting Probabilities 222
5.2 Calculating Probabilities 227
5.3 Probabilities of More Complex Events: Unions, Intersections, and Complements 232
5.4 Conditional Probability 244
5.5 Probability as a Basis for Making Decisions 256
5.6 Estimating Probabilities Empirically and Using Simulation (Optional) 259
Chapter Activities 268
Are You Ready to Move On? Chapter 5 Review Exercises 269

chapter 6 Random Variables and Probability Distributions 274

Preview 274
Chapter Learning Objectives 275
6.1 Random Variables 276
viii Contents

6.2 Probability Distributions for Discrete Random Variables 279

6.3 Probability Distributions for Continuous Random Variables 285
6.4 Mean and Standard Deviation of a Random Variable 292
6.5 Normal Distributions 298
6.6 Checking for Normality 315
6.7 Binomial and Geometric Distributions (Optional) 319
6.8 Using the Normal Distribution to Approximate a Discrete
Distribution (Optional) 329
Chapter Activities 334
Are You Ready to Move On? Chapter 6 Review Exercises 334
Technology Notes 337
Want to know more? See Chapter 6 Online Materials for coverage of Counting Rules
and the Poisson Distribution

section Iv Learning from Sample Data

chapter 7 An Overview of Statistical Inference—Learning from Data 342

Preview 342
Chapter Learning Objectives 343
7.1 Statistical Inference—What You Can Learn From Data 344
7.2 Selecting an Appropriate Method—Four Key Questions 350
7.3 A Five-Step Process for Statistical Inference 356
Chapter Activities 357
Are You Ready to Move On? Chapter 7 Review Exercises 358

chapter 8 Sampling Variability and Sampling Distributions 360

Preview 360
Chapter Learning Objectives 361
8.1 Statistics and Sampling Variability 363
8.2 The Sampling Distribution of a Sample Proportion 368
8.3 How Sampling Distributions Support Learning from Data 373
Chapter Activities 378
Exploring the Big Ideas 378
Are You Ready to Move On? Chapter 8 Review Exercises 379

chapter 9 Estimating a Population Proportion 382

Preview 382
Chapter Learning Objectives 383
9.1 Selecting an Estimator 384
9.2 Estimating a Population Proportion—Margin of Error 388
9.3 A Large Sample Confidence Interval for a Population Proportion 395
9.4 Choosing a Sample Size to Achieve a Desired Margin of Error 408
9.5 Avoid These Common Mistakes 411
Chapter Activities 413
Exploring the Big Ideas 415
Are You Ready to Move On? Chapter 9 Review Exercises 416
Technology Notes 418
 Contents ix

chapter 10 Asking and Answering Questions About

a Population Proportion 420
Preview 420
Chapter Learning Objectives 421
10.1 Hypotheses and Possible Conclusions 422
10.2 Potential Errors in Hypothesis Testing 428
10.3 The Logic of Hypothesis Testing—An Informal Example 433
10.4 A Procedure for Carrying Out a Hypothesis Test 437
10.5 Large-Sample Hypothesis Tests for a Population Proportion 440
10.6 Avoid These Common Mistakes 452
Chapter Activities 453
Exploring the Big Ideas 453
Are You Ready to Move On? Chapter 10 Review Exercises 454
Technology Notes 456

chapter      11 Asking and Answering Questions About the

Difference Between Two Population Proportions 458
Preview 458
Chapter Learning Objectives 459
11.1 Estimating the Difference Between Two Population Proportions 460
11.2 Testing Hypotheses About the Difference Between Two Population Proportions 468
11.3 Avoid These Common Mistakes 477
Chapter Activities 477
Exploring the Big Ideas 478
Are You Ready to Move On? Chapter 11 Review Exercises 479
Technology Notes 479

chapter    12 Asking and Answering Questions About

a Population Mean 482
Preview 482
Chapter Learning Objectives 483
12.1 The Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean 484
12.2 A Confidence Interval for a Population Mean 494
12.3 Testing Hypotheses About a Population Mean 507
12.4 Avoid These Common Mistakes 520
Chapter Activities 520
Exploring the Big Ideas 522
Are You Ready to Move On? Chapter 12 Review Exercises 522
Technology Notes 524

chapter    13 Asking and Answering Questions About the

Difference Between Two Population Means 528
Preview 528
Chapter Learning Objectives 529
13.1 Testing Hypotheses About the Difference between Two Population Means Using
Independent Samples 530
13.2 Testing Hypotheses About the Difference between Two Population Means Using
Paired Samples 545
13.3 Estimating the Difference Between Two Population Means 556
x Contents

13.4 Avoid These Common Mistakes 566

Chapter Activities 566
Exploring the Big Ideas 567
Are You Ready to Move On? Chapter 13 Review Exercises 567
Technology Notes 570

section v Additional Opportunities to Learn from Data

chapter    14 Learning from Experiment Data 576

Preview 576
Chapter Learning Objectives 577
14.1 Variability and Random Assignment 578
14.2 Testing Hypotheses About Differences in Treatment Effects 580
14.3 Estimating the Difference in Treatment Effects 589
14.4 Avoid These Common Mistakes 596
Chapter Activities 597
Are You Ready to Move On? Chapter 14 Review Exercises 598

chapter 15 Learning from Categorical Data 600

Preview 600
Chapter Learning Objectives 601
15.1 Chi-Square Tests for Univariate Categorical Data 602
15.2 Tests for Homogeneity and Independence in a Two-Way Table 616
15.3 Avoid These Common Mistakes 631
Chapter Activities 631
Are You Ready to Move On? Chapter 15 Review Exercises 632
Technology Notes 635

Want to Know More? See Online Materials for the following additional chapters:

chapter 16 Understanding Relationships—Numerical Data Part 2

Preview
ONLINE Chapter Learning Objectives
16.1 The Simple Linear Regression Model
16.2 Inferences Concerning the Slope of the Population Regression Line
16.3 Checking Model Adequacy
Are You Ready to Move On? Chapter 16 Review Exercises
Technology Notes
 Contents xi

chapter     17 Asking and Answering Questions About More Than Two Means
Preview
ONLINE Chapter Learning Objectives
17.1 The Analysis of Variance—Single-Factor ANOVA and the F Test
17.2 Multiple Comparisons
Appendix: ANOVA Computations
Are You Ready to Move On? Chapter 17 Review Exercises
Technology Notes

Appendix A Statistical Tables 640

Table 1 Random Numbers 640
Table 2 Standard Normal Probabilities (Cumulative z Curve Areas) 642
Table 3 t Critical Values 644
Table 4 Tail Areas for t Curves 645
Table 5 Upper-Tail Areas for Chi-Square Distributions 648
Table 6 Binomial Probabilities 650
Answers 653
Index 695
 Preface

Statistics is about learning from data and the role that variability plays in drawing conclu-
sions from data. To be successful, it is not enough for students to master the computational
aspects of descriptive and inferential statistics—they must also develop an understanding of
the data analysis process at a conceptual level. Statistics: Learning from Data is informed
by careful and intentional thought about how the conceptual and the mechanical should be
integrated in order to promote three key types of learning objectives for students:
conceptual understanding
mastery of the mechanics
the ability to demonstrate these by “putting it into practice”

A Unique Approach
A number of innovative features distinguish this text from other introductory statistics books:
A New Approach to Probability
There is now quite a bit of research on how students develop an understanding of
probability and chance. Using natural frequencies to reason about probability, espe-
cially conditional probability, is much easier for students to understand. The treatment
of probability in this text is complete, including conditional probability and Bayes’
Rule type probability calculations, but is done in a way that eliminates the need for
the symbolism and formulas that are a roadblock for so many students.
Chapter on Overview of Statistical Inference (Chapter 7)
This short chapter focuses on the things students need to think about in order to select
an appropriate method of analysis. In most texts, these considerations are “hidden” in
the discussion that occurs when a new method is introduced. Discussing these consid-
erations up front in the form of four key questions that need to be answered before
choosing an inference method makes it easier for students to make correct choices.
An Organization That Reflects the Data Analysis Process
Students are introduced early to the idea that data analysis is a process that begins with
careful planning, followed by data collection, data description using graphical and
numerical summaries, data analysis, and finally interpretation of results. The ordering
of topics in the text book mirrors this process: data collection, then data description,
then statistical inference.
Inference for Proportions Before Inference for Means
Inference for proportions is covered before inference for means for the following
reasons:
This makes it possible to develop the concept of a sampling distribution via simula-
tion, an approach that is more accessible to students than a more formal, theoretical
approach. Simulation is simpler in the context of proportions, where it is easy to
construct a hypothetical population from which to sample (it is more complicated
to create a hypothetical population in the context of means because this requires
making assumptions about shape and spread).
Large-sample inferential procedures for proportions are based on the normal distribu-
tion and don’t require the introduction of a new distribution (the t distribution). Stu-
dents can focus on the new concepts of estimation and hypothesis testing without
having to grapple at the same time with the introduction of a new probability
distribution.

xii
 Preface xiii

Separate Treatment of Inference Based on Experiment Data (Chapter 14)

Many statistical studies involve collecting data via experimentation. The same infer-
ence procedures used to estimate or test hypotheses about population parameters also
are used to estimate or test hypotheses about treatment effects. However, the neces-
sary assumptions are slightly different (for example, random assignment replaces the
assumption of random selection), and the wording of hypotheses and conclusions is
also different. Trying to treat both cases together tends to confuse students. This text
makes the distinction clear.

Features That Support Student Engagement and Success

The text also includes a number of features that support conceptual understanding, mastery
of mechanics, and putting ideas into practice.
Simple Design
There is now research showing that many of the “features” in current textbooks are
not really helpful to students. In fact, cartoons, sidebars, historical notes, fake Post-it
notes in the margins, and the like, actually distract students and interfere with learn-
ing. Statistics: Learning from Data has a simple, clean design in order to minimize
clutter and maximize student understanding.
Chapter Learning Objectives—Keeping Students Informed About Expectations
Chapter learning objectives explicitly state the expected student outcomes. Learning
objectives fall under three headings: Conceptual Understanding, Mastery of Mechan-
ics, and Putting It Into Practice.
Preview—Motivation for Learning
Each chapter opens with a Preview and Preview Example that provide motivation for
studying the concepts and methods introduced in the chapter. They address why the
material is worth learning, provide the conceptual foundation for the methods covered
in the chapter, and connect to what the student already knows. A relevant and current
example provides a context in which one or more questions are proposed for further
investigation. This context is revisited in the chapter once students have the necessary
understanding to more fully address the questions posed.
Real Data
Examples and exercises with overly simple settings do not allow students to practice
interpreting results in authentic situations or give students the experience necessary to
be able to use statistical methods in real settings. The exercises and examples are a
particular strength of this text, and I invite you to compare the examples and exercises
with those in other introductory statistics texts.
Many students are skeptical of the relevance and importance of statistics. Con-
trived problem situations and artificial data often reinforce this skepticism. Examples
and exercises that involve data extracted from journal articles, newspapers, and other
published sources and that are of interest to today’s students are used to motivate and
engage students. Most examples and exercises in the book are of this nature; they
cover a very wide range of disciplines and subject areas. These include, but are not
limited to, health and fitness, consumer research, psychology and aging, environmen-
tal research, law and criminal justice, and entertainment.
Exercises Organized Into a Developmental Structure—Structuring the Out-of-
Class Experience
End-of-section exercises are organized into developmental sets. At the end of each sec-
tion, there are two grouped problem sets. The exercises in each set work together to
assess all of the learning objectives for that section. In addition to the two exercise sets,
each section also has additional exercises for those who want more practice.
Answers for the exercises of Exercise Set 1 in each section are included at the end
of the book. In addition, many of the exercises in Exercise Set 1 include hints direct-
ing the student to a particular example or a relevant discussion that appears in the text.
This feature provides direction for students who might need help getting started on a
particular exercise. Instructors who prefer that students be more self-directed can
xiv Preface

assign Exercise Set 2. Answers and hints are not provided for the exercises in Exercise
Set 2.
Are You Ready to Move On?—Students Test Their Understanding
Prior to moving to the next chapter, “Are You Ready to Move On?” exercises allow
students to confirm that they have achieved the chapter learning objectives. Like the
developmental problem sets of the individual sections, this collection of exercises is
developmental in nature. These exercises assess all of the chapter learning objectives
and serve as a comprehensive end-of-chapter review.
Exploring the Big Ideas—Real Data Algorithmic Sampling Exercises
Most chapters contain extended sampling-based, real-data exercises at the end of the
chapter. These exercises appear in CourseMate and Aplia, where each student gets a
different random sample for the same exercise. These unique exercises
address the tension between the desire to use real data and the desire to have algo-
rithmically generated exercises.
address the tension between the role of interpretation and communication in data
analysis and the desire for exercises that can be machine scored.
are designed to teach about sampling variability.
Data Analysis Software
Each new textbook comes with free JMP data analysis software. See Student
Resources for more information.
Technology Notes
Technology Notes appear at the end of most chapters and give students helpful hints
and guidance on completing tasks associated with a particular chapter. The following
technologies are included in the notes: JMP, Minitab, SPSS, Microsoft Excel 2007,
TI-83/84, and TI-nspire. They include display screens to help students visualize and
better understand the steps. More complete technology manuals are also available on
the text web site.
Chapter Activities—Engaging Students in Hands-On Activities
There is a growing body of evidence that students learn best when they are actively
engaged. Chapter activities guide students’ thinking about important ideas and
concepts.

Consistent With Recommendations for the Introductory

Statistics Course Endorsed by the American Statistical
Association
In 2005, the American Statistical Association endorsed the report “College Guidelines in
Assessment and Instruction for Statistics Education (GAISE Guidelines),” which included
the following six recommendations for the introductory statistics course:
1. Emphasize statistical literacy and develop statistical thinking.
2. Use real data.
3. Stress conceptual understanding rather than mere knowledge of procedures.
4. Foster active learning in the classroom.
5. Use technology for developing conceptual understanding and analyzing data.
6. Use assessments to improve and evaluate student learning.
Statistic: Learning from Data is consistent with these recommendations and supports the
GAISE guidelines in the following ways:
1. Emphasize Statistical Literacy and Develop Statistical Thinking.
Statistical literacy is promoted throughout the text in the many examples and exer-
cises that are drawn from the popular press. In addition, a focus on the role of
variability, consistent use of context, and an emphasis on interpreting and communi-
cating results in context work together to help students develop skills in statistical
thinking.
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 Preface xv

2. Use Real Data.

The examples and exercises are context driven, and the reference sources include the
popular press as well as journal articles.
3. Stress Conceptual Understanding Rather Than Mere Knowledge of Procedures.
Nearly all exercises in the text are multipart and ask students to go beyond just calcu-
lation, with a focus on interpretation and communication. The examples and
explanations are designed to promote conceptual understanding. Hands-on activities
in each chapter are also constructed to strengthen conceptual understanding. Which
brings us to . . .
4. Foster Active Learning in the Classroom.
While this recommendation speaks more to pedagogy and classroom practice, Statis-
tics: Learning from Data provides more than 30 hands-on activities in the text and
additional activities in the accompanying instructor resources that can be used in class
or assigned to be completed outside of class.
5. Use Technology for Developing Conceptual Understanding and Analyzing Data.
The computer has brought incredible statistical power to the desktop of every investiga-
tor. The wide availability of statistical computer packages, such as JMP, Minitab, and
SPSS, and the graphical capabilities of the modern microcomputer have transformed
both the teaching and learning of statistics. To highlight the role of the computer in
contemporary statistics, sample output is included throughout the book. In addition,
numerous exercises contain data that can easily be analyzed using statistical software.
JMP data analysis software is provided with the text, and technology manuals for JMP
and for other software packages, such as Minitab and SPSS, and for the graphing calcu-
lator are available in the online materials that accompany this text.
6. Use Assessments to Improve and Evaluate Student Learning.
Comprehensive chapter review exercises that are specifically linked to chapter learn-
ing objectives are included at the end of each chapter. In addition, assessment materi-
als in the form of a test bank, quizzes, and chapter exams are available in the instructor
resources that accompany this text. The items in the test bank reflect the data-in-
context philosophy of the text’s exercises and examples.
 Instructor and Student Resources
MindTap™
The Personal Learning Experience
MindTap for Peck Statistics: Learning from Data is a personalized, fully online digital
learning platform of authoritative textbook content, Aplia’s online learning and homework
system, and services that engages your students with interactivity while also offering choices
in the configuration of coursework and enhancement of the curriculum via complimentary
Web apps known as MindApps. MindApps range from Aplia, ReadSpeaker (which reads the
text out loud to students), to Kaltura (allowing you to insert inline video and audio into your
curriculum), to ConnectYard (allowing you to create digital “yards” through social media—all
without “friending” your students). MindTap is well beyond an eBook, a homework solution
or digital supplement, a resource center Web site, a course delivery platform, or a Learning
Management System. It is the first in a new category—the Personal Learning Experience.

Aplia™
Content
Aplia™ is an online interactive learning solution that improves comprehension and out-
comes by increasing student effort and engagement. Founded by a professor to enhance his
own courses, Aplia provides automatically graded assignments with detailed, immediate
explanations for every question, along with innovative teaching materials. Our easy-to-use
system has been used by more than 1,000,000 students at over 1,800 institutions. Exercises
are taken directly from text.
Aplia homework engages students in critical thinking, requiring them to synthesize
and apply knowledge, not simply recall it. The diverse types of questions reflect the types
of exercises that help students learn. All homework is written by subject matter experts in
the field who have taught the course before.
Aplia contains a robust course management system with powerful analytics, enabling
professors to track student performance easily.

Service
Your adoption of Aplia® includes CourseCare, Cengage Learning’s industry leading ser-
vice and training program designed to ensure that you have everything that you need to
make the most of your use of Aplia. CourseCare provides one-on-one service, from finding
the right solutions for your course to training and support. A team of Cengage represen-
tatives, including Digital Solutions Managers and Coordinators as well as Service and
Training Consultants assist you every step of the way. For additional information about
CourseCare, please visit http:// www.cengage.com/coursecare.
Our Aplia training program provides a comprehensive curriculum of beginner, inter-
mediate, and advanced sessions, designed to get you started and effectively integrate Aplia
into your course. We offer a flexible online and recorded training program designed to
accommodate your busy schedule. Whether you are using Aplia for the first time or are an
experienced user, there is a training option to meet your needs.

JMP Statistical Software

JMP is a statistics software for Windows and Macintosh computers from SAS, the market
leader in analytics software and services for industry. JMP Student Edition is a streamlined,
easy-to-use version that provides all the statistical analysis and graphics covered in this
textbook. Once data is imported, students will find that most procedures require just two or
Access to JMP is free with the three mouse clicks. JMP can import data from a variety of formats, including Excel and other
purchase of a new book. statistical packages, and you can easily copy and paste graphs and output into documents.
xvi
 Preface xvii

JMP also provides an interface to explore data visually and interactively, which will
help your students develop a healthy relationship with their data, work more efficiently
with data, and tackle difficult statistical problems more easily. Because its output provides
both statistics and graphs together, the student will better see and understand the applica-
tion of concepts covered in this book as well. JMP Student Edition also contains some
unique platforms for student projects, such as mapping and scripting. JMP functions in
the same way on both Windows and Mac platforms and instructions contained with this
book apply to both platforms.
Access to this software is available for free with new copies of the book and avail-
able for purchase standalone at CengageBrain.com or http://www.jmp.com/getse. Find out
more at www.jmp.com.

Student Resources
Digital
To access additional course materials and companion resources, please visit www
.cengagebrain.com. At the CengageBrain.com home page, search for the ISBN of your
title (from the back cover of your book) using the search box at the top of the page. This
will take you to the product page where free companion resources can be found.
If your text includes a printed access card, you will have instant access to the follow-
ing resources:
Complete step-by-step instructions for JMP, TI-84 Graphing Calculators, Excel,
Minitab, and SPSS.
Data sets in JMP, TI-84, Excel, Minitab, SPSS, SAS, and ASCII file formats.
Applets used in the Activities found in the text.

Print
Student Solutions Manual (ISBN: 9781285089836): Contains fully worked-out solutions
to all of the Exercise Set 1 and odd-numbered additional exercises in the text, giving stu-
dents a way to check their answers and ensure that they took the correct steps to arrive at
an answer.

Instructor Resources
Print
Teacher’s Resource Binder (ISBN: 9781285094632): The Teacher’s Resource Binder is
full of wonderful resources for both college professors and AP Statistics teachers. These
include:
Recommendations for instructors on how to teach the course, including sample syl-
labi, pacing guides, and teaching tips.
Recommendations for what students should read and review for a particular class
period or set of class periods.
Extensive notes on preparing students to take the AP exam.
Additional examples from published sources (with references), classified by chapter
in the text. These examples can be used to enrich your classroom discussions.
Model responses—examples of responses that can serve as a model for work that
would be likely to receive a high mark on the AP exam.
A collection of data explorations that can be used throughout the year to help students
prepare for the types of questions that they may encounter on the investigative task on
the AP Statistics Exam.
Activity worksheets that can be duplicated and used in class.
A test bank that includes assessment items, quizzes, and chapter exams.
xviii Preface

Digital
Solution Builder: This online instructor database offers complete worked-out solu-
tions to all exercises in the text, allowing you to create customized, secure solutions
printouts (in PDF format) matched exactly to the problems you assign in class. Sign
up for access at www.cengage.com/solutionbuilder.
E-book: This new premium eBook has highlighting, note-taking, and search features
as well as links to multimedia resources.

Acknowledgments
I would like to express my thanks and gratitude to the following people who made this
book possible:
Molly Taylor, my editor at Cengage, for her support and encouragement.
Jay Campbell, my development editor, for his unfailing good humor and his ability to field
just about any curve ball I threw at him.
Alison Eigel Zade, the content project manager.
Ed Dionne, Lindsay Schmonsees and Liah Rose, project managers at MPS Limited.
Elena Montillo, the production manager.
Andrew Coppola, associate media editor, for managing the media content and for creating
the implementation of the “Exploring the Bid Ideas” activities.
Cameron Troxell, for his careful review of the manuscript and many helpful suggestions
for improving the readability of the book.
Stephen Miller, for his great work on the huge task of creating the student and instructor
solutions manuals.
Michael Allwood, for his detailed work in checking the accuracy of examples and
solutions.
Kathy Fritz, for creating the interactive PowerPoint presentations that accompany the text.
Melissa Sovak, for creating the Technology Notes sections.
Nicole Mollica, the developmental editor for marketing.
Ryan Ahern, the Market Development Manager.
Beth Chance and Francisco Garcia for producing the applet used in the confidence interval
activities.
Gary McClelland for producing the applets from Seeing Statistics used in the regression
activities.
Chris Sabooni, the copy editor for the book.
MPS, for producing the artwork used in the book.
I would also like to give a special thanks to those who served on the Editorial Board for
the book and those who class tested some of the chapters with their students:

Editorial Board
John Climent, Cecil College
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 Preface xix

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 xx Preface

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Statistics:
Learning
from Data
 Overview

Learning From Data

There is an old saying that “without data, you are just another person with an opinion.”
While anecdotes and coincidences may make for interesting stories, you wouldn’t want
to make important decisions on the basis of anecdotes alone. For example, just because a
friend of a friend ate 16 apricots and then experienced relief from joint pain doesn’t mean
that this is all you need to know to help one of your parents choose a treatment for arthritis.
Before recommending apricots, you would definitely want to consider relevant data on the
effectiveness of apricots as a treatment for arthritis.
It is difficult to function in today’s world without a basic understanding of statistics.
For example, here are a few headlines from articles in a single issue of USA Today (June 29,
2009) that draw conclusions based on data:

“Poll Finds Generation Gap Biggest Since Vietnam War” summarized a study that
explored opinions regarding social values and political views. Not surprisingly, large
behavioral differences between young and old were noted in the use of the Internet,
cell phones, and text messaging.
“Few See Themselves as ‘Old’ No Matter What Their Age” described results from a
survey of 2,969 adults. Those surveyed were asked at what age a person would be
considered old. The resulting data revealed that there were notable differences in the
answer to this question depending on the age of the responder. The average age
identified as old by young adults (ages 18 to 29) was 60, while the average was 69
for those who were ages 30 to 49, 72 for those ages 50 to 64, and 74 for those ages
65 and older.
“If You Were Given $1,000, What Would You Do?” reported on one aspect of a study of
consumer purchasing and saving behavior. Something was definitely amiss in this
report, however—the percentages for the response categories (such as save it, pay off
credit card debt, and use it for a vacation) added up to 107%!
“Many Adults Can’t Name a Scientist” summarized the results of a survey of 1,000 adults.
Of those surveyed, 23% were unable to name a single famous scientist. Of those who
did come up with a name, Albert Einstein was the scientist of choice, named by 47%
of those surveyed.
To be an informed consumer of reports like these, you must be able to:
Extract information from tables, charts, and graphs.
Follow numerical arguments.
Understand how data should be gathered, summarized, and analyzed to draw valid
conclusions.
In addition to preparing you to critically evaluate the work of others, studying statis-
tics will enable you to plan statistical studies, collect data in a sensible way, and use data
to answer questions of interest.
Throughout your personal and professional life, you will need to use data to make
informed decisions. Should you go out for a sport that involves the risk of injury? Will
your college club do better by trying to raise funds with a benefit concert or with a direct
appeal for donations? If you choose a particular major, what are your chances of finding
a job when you graduate? How should you select a graduate program based on guidebook
2
 Overview 3

ratings that include information on percentage of applicants accepted, time to obtain a

degree, and so on? Your statistics course will provide you with a systematic approach to
making decisions based on data.

Statistics—It’s All About Variability

Statistical methods allow you to collect, describe, analyze, and draw conclusions
from data. If you lived in a world where all measurements were identical for every
individual, these tasks would be simple. For example, consider a population consist-
ing of all of the students at your college. Suppose that every student is enrolled in the
same number of courses, spent exactly the same amount of money on textbooks this
semester, and favors increasing student fees to support expanding library services.
For this population, there is no variability in number of courses, amount spent on
books, or student opinion on the fee increase. A person studying students from this
population to draw conclusions about any of these three variables would have a par-
ticularly easy task. It would not matter how many students were studied or how the
students were selected. In fact, you could collect information on number of courses,
amount spent on books, and opinion on the fee increase by just stopping the next
student who happened to walk by the library. Because there is no variability in the
population, this one individual would provide complete and accurate information
about the population, and you could draw conclusions with no risk of error.
The situation just described is obviously unrealistic. Populations with no variability
are exceedingly rare, and they are of little statistical interest because they present no chal-
lenge. In fact, variability is almost universal. It is variability that makes life interesting.
You need to develop an understanding of variability to be able to collect, describe, analyze,
and draw conclusions from data in a sensible way.
The following example illustrates how describing and understanding variability pro-
vide the foundation for learning from data.

Overview Example: Monitoring Water Quality

As part of its regular water quality monitoring efforts, an environmental control board
selects five water specimens from a particular well each day. The concentration of con-
taminants in parts per million (ppm) is measured for each of the five specimens, and then
the average of the five measurements is calculated. The following graph is an example of
a histogram. (You will learn how to construct and interpret histograms in Chapter 2.) This
histogram summarizes the average contamination values for 200 days.

Frequency

40

30

20

10

0
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Average contamination

Suppose that a chemical spill has occurred at a manufacturing plant 1 mile from the well. It is
not known whether a spill of this nature would contaminate groundwater in the area of the spill
and, if so, whether a spill this distance from the well would affect the quality of well water.
One month after the spill, five water specimens are collected from the well, and the
average contamination is 15.5 ppm. Considering the variation before the spill shown in
Unless otherwise noted, all content on this page is © Cengage Learning.
Other documents randomly have
different content
Macivor, Finlay, piper, author of ‘The Campbells are Coming,’ 71 n.
Mackay, Alexander, of Auchmony, 279 and n.
—— (M‘Cay), Alexander, son of lord Reay, 103.
—— George, 3rd lord Reay, q.v.
Mackays of Strathnavar, 73.
Mackenzie, captain, 244.
—— of Culcoy, 100.
—— of Lentron, 100.
—— of Scatwell, refuses to join the rebels, 100.
—— Alex., of Fairburn, 91, 97 n, 100 and n.
—— Mrs., of Fairburn, 104 n.
—— Colin, earl of Seaforth, q.v.
—— —— minister of Lochs, 232 and n.
—— —— of Kildun, 235 n.
—— Mrs., of Kildun, 235.
—— George, of Balmuchie, 97 n.
—— James, of Cappoch, 75.
—— John, of Ardloch, 71 n, 74, 75.
—— —— of Kintail, 78 n.
—— Kenneth, lord Fortrose, q.v.
—— —— captain in Barisdale’s regiment, 100 n.
—— Roderick, of Coigeach, 78 n.
—— sir Roderick, tutor of Kintail, 74 n, 78 n.
Mackenzies acquire Assynt, 73-4 n;
and the lands of Macleod of Lewis, 78 n;
defeat Macdonalds at Sgeir-na-Caillich, 75 and n;
join the rebels, 100.
—— of Applecross and Loch Carron, 75.
—— of Gairloch, 75.
—— of Loch Broom, 75.
—— of Seaforth, 90.
M‘Kilikin, John, minister of Loch Alsh, 77.
Mackinnon, John, of Mackinnon, 80 and n.
Mackintosh, bailie in Inverness, 104.
—— Æneas, of Mackintosh, refuses to join the rebels, 101 and n;
taken prisoner at Dornoch, 101 n;
sent home by the prince, 102 n.
—— Anne, wife of Mackintosh of Mackintosh, 101, 108 n, 205;
raises a regiment for prince Charles, 101 and n;
her reception of her husband after his liberation;
meets the duke of Cumberland in London, 102 n.
—— Lachlan, of Mackintosh, defeated by Keppoch at Mulroy, 87
and n, 88.
—— captain William, 293 n.
Mackintoshes, 277 and n;
arm for king George, aftw. join prince Charles, 101, 271 n;
at the battle of Falkirk, 409;
at Culloden, 417.
M‘Lachlan, rev. John, of Kilchoan, 85 and n.
—— Lachlan, of MacLachlan, killed at Culloden, 85 and n.
MacLauchlans, 407;
in Ardnamurchan, 83;
at Culloden, 85 n.
—— of Morven, 84.
Maclean of Ardgour, 84.
—— of Coll, 80.
—— of Dowart, 85.
—— of Kingairloch, 84.
—— of Lochbuie, 85.
—— Allan, of Brolas, 85 n.
—— Charles, of Drimnin, killed at Culloden, 85 n.
—— sir Hector, of Duart, 85 and n.
Macleans in the ’45, 85 and n;
at Culloden, 85 n, 417.
—— of Morven, 84.
MacLennans of Glenshiel, 76 n.
Macleod, Alexander, advocate, and aide-de-camp to prince
Charles, 52 n, 227 and n, 228.
—— —— lieut. in the Macleod militia, 263 and n.
—— —— of Luskintyre, 242 and n.
—— —— of Ulinish, 244 and n.
—— Donald, of Geanies, 107 n.
—— —— of Gualtergil, 230 and n, 231 and n, 233, 234.
—— Hugh, of Geanies, 74, 104, 107 and n, 110, 285.
—— Janet, wife of sir James Campbell, of Auchenbreck, 6 n.
—— John, lord, son of George, earl of Cromartie, 71 n, 72 n, 96
and n, 97, 104 n.
—— —— father of Donald, of Geanies, 107 n.
—— —— of Muiravonside, 52 and n, 227 and n.
—— Margaret, 242 n.
—— Margaret, wife of sir Roderick Mackenzie, tutor of Kintail, 74
and n.
—— Neil, betrayer of Montrose, 107 n.
—— —— the last of the Macleods of Assynt, 74 n.
—— Norman, of Macleod, 44 and n, 65, 95, 104, 110, 136-46, 227
n, 284, 290-1, 293 and n, 298.
—— sir Norman, of Bernera, 227 n, 242 n.
—— Roderick, the last of the Macleods of Lewis, 78 n.
—— Torquil, of Lewis, 74 n.
—— —— Connanach, 78 n.
—— William, of Luskintyre, 242.
Macleods, 284-5;
at the battle of Falkirk, 409;
at Culloden, 417.
—— of Assynt, 73-4.
—— of Cogach, 74.
—— of Lewis, 78 and n.
Macmillan, Alexander, of Dunmore, keeper of the signet, 49 n.
M‘Murich, John, 260.
Macneil, Anne, wife of Macdonald of Boisdale, 247 and n, 248-9.
—— Roderick, of Barra, 79 and n.
MacNicols of Assynt, 74 n.
Macpherson of Cluny, 186, 240, 271 n, 415.
—— Malcolm, corporal in the Black Watch, shot for desertion, 43
n.
—— Samuel, corporal in the Black Watch, shot for desertion, 43 n.
Macphersons, 277 and n, 305 n.
—— of Cluny, at the battle of Falkirk, 409;
at Culloden, 417.
Macrae (MacRaw), captain in Glengarry’s regiment, 77 n.
—— Alexander, lieut., 77 n.
—— (Macgrath or M‘Kra), Gilchrist, 77 n.
—— (Macraith), James, captain in Berwick’s regiment, 77 n.
—— (M‘Raw) Murdoch, hanged as a spy, 77 n.
M‘Raes of Kintail, said to be descended from the Campbells, 76
and n-77.
Maillebois, maréchal de, 12 and n.
Maitland, of Pitrichy, 124, 138;
taken prisoner by the rebels, 145-6.
Malt tax, 122, 134.
Mamore, 86.
Manchester, 171;
the bells having been rung for the rebels, 171;
now ring for the enemy, 179.
Manchester regiment, 171-4.
March, William Douglas, 3rd earl of, aftw. Queensberry, duke of,
q.v.
Marischal, George Keith, 10th earl, 7 and n, 11, 21, 26, 29, 38, 58;
letter to, from Murray of Broughton, 27-8 and n;
letter from, commanding his people to join lord John Drummond,
132, 292 n;
its authenticity, 132.
Masterman, Thomas, of the Ann, 398.
Mathesons of Loch Alsh, 75.
Maxwell, Dr., 372.
—— Mr., cipher name of Macgregor of Balhaldy, q.v.
—— William, of Carruchan, escapes from Carlisle, 193 and n.
Menzies of Pitfodels, 122.
Mercer, Mr., 121.
Metcalf, John, road-maker and musician, 158 n.
Middleton, of Seaton, 124, 162.
Moidart, 81.
Moir, Charles, brother of Stonywood, 122.
—— James, of Stonywood, 102, 116-117, 122, 128, 130, 133, 135
n, 138, 151.
—— William, of Lonmay, 121 and n, 128, 136, 150-1;
letter to, from lord John Drummond, 293 n.
Monaltrie. See Farquharson, James.
Monkstat house, 262 and n.
Monro. See Munro.
Moore, Mr., cipher name of Dr. Barry, q.v.
Morar, 81-2.
—— laird of. See Macdonald, Allan.
Mordaunt, brigadier-general, 418.
Morgan, captain, arrested for rioting in Aberdeen, 163 n.
—— David, barrister and ‘the pretender’s counsellor,’ 172 and n.
Morison, Roderick, minister of Kintail, on the descent of the
Macraes, 76 n.
Morris, Mr., cipher name for Charles Smith, q.v.
Morven, 84, 85.
Moy, the ‘Rout of Moy,’ 101 n, 108 and n, 145 n, 306 and n.
Muchals. See Castle Fraser.
Muckle Ferry, near Dornoch, 110.
Muick or Glenshiel, 76 and n.
Muiravonside, 227 n.
—— laird of. See Macleod, John.
Mulben, 290, 295.
Mull, island of, 85.
Mulroy, battle of [1688], 87 and n.
Munro, Daniel, minister of Tain, his Account of the late Rebellion
from Ross and Sutherland, 93-110.
—— Dr. Duncan, killed at the battle of Falkirk, 198 and n.
—— George, of Culcairn, 103 and n, 104, 107, 115, 136-7, 139,
142, 293 and n.
—— sir Harry, of Foulis, 103.
—— Hugh, of Teaninich, 103.
—— sir Robert, of Foulis, 103 n;
killed at the battle of Falkirk, 198 and n, 413.
—— William, of Achany, 103.
Munros and their loyalty to the government, 46 and n, 103.
Murchisons of Loch Alsh, 75.
Murray, lady Anna, 123 n.
—— sir David, of Stanhope, 83 and n.
—— lord George, 149, 158 n, 174 and n, 186 n, 206 and n, 354,
361;
at the battle of Prestonpans, 407;
the quarrel with Balmerino, 200;
at the battle of Falkirk, 194-6 and n, 409, 411, 413;
his night attack on Cumberland’s forces at Nairn, 415;
at Culloden, 211 and n, 212-13 and n, 239-40, 417;
his flight from the battlefield, 216;
attributes much of the disaster of the battle to Hay of Restalrig,
223.
—— sir James, of Stanhope, 83 n.
—— John, of Broughton, his History of the first Rise and Progress
of the late Rebellion, 1742-1744, 1-66;
letter from, to the Chevalier, 36-7, 54-60;
letter from, to prince Charles, 60-8;
 letters from, to Edgar, 20 and n-27, 37-41, 45 and n;
letter from, to the earl
marischal, 27-8 and n;
letters to, from the Chevalier, 30-4;
letters to, from Edgar, 18-19, 30.
—— lord John, 219.
—— Margaret, dau. of lord James Murray, 101 n.
—— sir Patrick, of Ochtertyre, attempts to capture the duke of
Perth, 118 n.
—— Veronica, 51 n.
—— hon. William, solicitor-general, 331 and n.

Nairn, 210.
Nairne, lord, 406-7.
Narsom, cipher name for John Murray, q.v.
New, laird of. See Forbes.
Newcastle, duke of, 228 n, 370, 401;
letter to, from general Price, 396;
petition to, from Grant of Sheugly, James, yr. of Sheugly, and
John Grant, minister of Urquhart, 329;
letter to, from the attorney-general recommending that Grant of
Sheugly be admitted to bail and tried in Edinburgh, 331.
Newton Pow, 351.
Nicolson, cipher name for Macleod of Macleod, q.v.
Nisbet, of Dirleton, 33 n, 64.
Nonjurant clergy in Aberdeen and Banff favour the Jacobites, 126;
their meeting houses destroyed in Aberdeen, 156.
North Uist, 79.
Nuntown, in Benbecula, 256 and n.

Ogilvie, lord, 208, 214, 410;

 his regiment, 149 and n.
—— of Achires, 121.
—— Janet, dau. of the earl of Findlater and wife of Forbes of
Skeleter, 113 n.
—— John, 289 n.
—— lady Margaret, 275 n.
—— William, 289 n.
Old Aberdeen ordered by the rebels to provide £215 of levy
money, 135.
Old Meldrum, 153.
Oliphant, yr. of Gask, at the battle of Falkirk, 412.
O’Neil, captain Felix, 230 and n, 231 n, 237 n, 249, 250, 252, 256,
258-60.
Orrery, lord, 47 and n.
Orri, M., French minister of finance, 66.
Osborne, John, principal of Marischal College, 152.
O’Sullivan, colonel John William, 196 n, 210, 228, 230 and n, 231
n, 237 n, 249;
at Culloden, 416.

Paisley regiment, 345 n, 350 and n, 351.

Papists of Aberdeen and Banff support the Jacobites, 127.
Park. See Gordon, sir William.
Paterson, sir Hugh, of Bannockburn, 11 n.
Paton, of Grandam, 124, 147.
Peirson, John, master of the Pretty Janet, 387.
Perth, James, [Jacobite] duke of, 7, 15 and n, 16, 17, 25 n, 35-7,
64, 67-8, 159, 181, 183, 206, 210, 212, 219, 222, 271 and n,
298 n;
 proposes to take Stirling castle, 31 and n, 40;
rejected by a lady in York, 37;
suspected by the government, 48, 49;
attempts to take him prisoner, 53 and n, 118 and n;
at the battle of Prestonpans, 168, 170, 174 and n, 175, 407;
on the way north is attacked at Kendal, 184;
warrant issued for his apprehension, 393;
assists his soldiers in the crossing of the Esk, 188;
at the battle of Falkirk, 410;
at Culloden, 214, 415-17;
in Ruthven of Badenoch, 216;
sails for France, 222-3;
buried at sea, 224.
Petrie, James, advocate in Aberdeen, 128;
reads the pretender’s manifesto at the Cross, 119 and n;
joins the rebels under Pitsligo, 121;
causes Maitland of Pitrichy to be taken by the rebels, 145-6.
Pitcalnie, lairds of. See Ross.
Pitsligo. See Forbes, Alexander.
Pitully. See Cuming.
Presbyterian ministers at the battle of Falkirk, 198 and n.
Preston, 170.
Prestonpans, battle of, 103-5 and n, 119, 122, 277, 343, 363, 405-
9;
prisoners taken by the rebels interned in Perthshire and Fife,
364 and n.
Price, John, governor of Berwick, 370;
letter from, to the duke of Newcastle, 396.
Price’s regiment, 153, 345 n, 349, 410, 417.
Pulrossie, 110.
Pulteney’s regiment, 158 and n, 411, 418.
Queensberry, Charles Douglas, 3rd duke of, 6 and n.
—— William Douglas, 4th duke of, 6 n.

Rae, David, nonjuring minister in Edinburgh, father of lord

Eskgrove, 34.
Rattray, Thomas, of Craighall-Rattray, bp. of Dunkeld, 17 n, 18 and
n, 20, 34, 39 and n.
Reay, George Mackay, 3rd lord, 72, 73 and n, 104, 109.
Reed, sir Alexander, of Barra, 124.
Reid, Patrick, minister of Clatt, 150 and n.
Rich, Robert, lieut.-colonel of Barrel’s regiment, 153 and n.
Robertsons of Strowan, 407.
Rose, of Kilravock, 273.
Roshiness, Benbecula, 231, 237, 252, 256-9.
Ross, the master of, 104, 105 and n, 108-9, 207.
—— of Balnagowan, 105 n.
—— of Inverchasley, 105, 106, 108-110.
—— hon. Charles, 105 n.
—— David, of Balnagowan, 105 n.
—— George, 13th lord, 105 n.
—— Malcolm, yr. of Pitcalnie, 105 and n;
his men having joined the government forces, he joins the
rebels, 106.
—— earldom, 105 n.
Rosses of Ross-shire, 105 and n.
Rout of Moy, 101 n, 108 n, 145 n, 306 and n.
Roxburgh, John, of the Jean, 398.
Rueval hill, Benbecula, 259 and n.
Ruthven in Badenoch, 215, 271, 418;
barracks demolished by the highlanders, 204.
—— castle burnt, 305 n.
Rutton, Dr., 16 n.
Ryder, sir Dudley, attorney-general, letter to the duke of
Newcastle, recommending that, no evidence being produced,
Grant of Sheugly be admitted to bail and tried in Edinburgh,
331 and n.

St. Ninian’s church blown up, 201.

Salton, Alexander Fraser, lord, 123 and n.
Sandilands [Sanderson], Mr., in Aberdeen, 121-2.
Sanstoun. See Huntly Lodge.
Saunders, John, in Keith, 287 n.
Scalpa, 233.
Scots Brigade, recruiting for service in the Netherlands, 43 and n.
Scott, captain Carolina Frederick, a relentless hunter of fugitive
Jacobites, 248 and n, 249.
Seaforth, countess of, 100 n.
—— Colin, earl of, 78 n, 90.
—— George, earl of, 91.
—— Kenneth, earl of, 91.
—— William, 5th earl of, 104 n.
Seaton, a priest, 127 and n.
Semple (Sempill), Hugh, lord, 3, 6, 8, 12-16, 19, 26-30, 39, 45 n,
46 n, 53, 58, 60, 66, 164 and n;
accusations against him by Cecil and Charles Smith, 21-3.
Semple’s regiment, 417.
Seton, of Touch, 11 n.
Shannon’s regiment, 181 n.
Shap, 185.
Sharpe, John, solicitor to the treasury, 332, 335 and n;
report by, on the services of Walter Grossett, 400-2.
Shaw, Farquhar, soldier in the Black Watch, shot for desertion, 43
n.
—— sir John, 337 and n, 397.
Sheridan, Thomas, private secretary to James ii., 223 n.
—— sir Thomas, 219;
sails for France, 223 and n.
Sime or Syme, John, minister of Lonmay, 299 n.
Simpson, James, 388.
Sinclair, George, of Geese, 72 n.
—— —— of Keiss, aftw. earl of Caithness, q.v.
Sinclair’s regiment, 410, 417.
Skeleter, laird of. See Forbes, George.
Skye, island of, the inhabitants converted to protestantism, 80 and
n.
Smith, of Menie, 131.
——- Charles, banker in Boulogne, 11 and n, 15-16 and n, 18, 21,
26-8, 38, 62 n, 99 n.
—— James, minister at Creich, 77.
—— commodore Thomas, 372 and n;
Flora Macdonald a prisoner in his charge, 373 n.
Smuggling on the increase, 336.
Somers, Richard, commissioner of the customs, 381, 385.
Spalding, Charles, of Whitefield, taken prisoner by the rebels, 344
and n.
Spanish ship arrives at Peterhead with supplies for the rebels,
148.
Spengadale, 110.
Stapleton, Walter, lieut.-colonel, 409;
at Culloden, 213 n, 417.
Stewart, captain, a prisoner with the rebels, 364.
—— hon. Anne, wife of Alexander Hay of Drumelzier, 26 and n.
—— Archibald, lord provost of Edinburgh, 43, 341-2 and n.
—— Charles, of Ardshiel, 54 and n, 58, 86 n.
—— Dugald, of Appin, 38, 86 and n.
—— sir James, of Burray, 72 n.
—— —— of Goodtrees, 43 and n, 52, 64, 99 n.
—— John, in Lochaber, 313.
—— —— Roy, 149 and n, 153-5, 159, 367 and n, 374, 395;
at the battle of Falkirk, 410-11;
at Culloden, 417.
—— lady Mary, wife of lord Fortrose, 104 n.
Stewarts of Appin at the battle of Prestonpans, 407;
at the battle of Falkirk, 409, 411;
at Culloden, 417.
Stirling, taken by rebels, 192 and n.
—— castle, 31 and n;
the siege, 192, 199, 201, 302 n, 409.
Stonywood, 161.
—— laird of. See Moir, James.
Stormont, David, 4th lord, 331 n.
Strathallan, lord, at the battle of Falkirk, 410, 412.
Strathallan’s Horse, 151 n.
Strathavon, 91, 92, 113 n, 274, 307.
Strathbogie, 92, 114-15, 118, 129, 153, 155.
Strathdearn, 91 and n, 113 n, 305 n.
Strathdown, now Strathavon, q.v.
Stratherrick, 89, 228.
Strathglass, 90.
Strathlachlan, 85.
—— laird of. See MacLachlan, Lachlan.
Strathlochy, 86.
Strathnairn, 91.
Strathnavar, 73.
Strathspey, 91.
Strichen, lord, 124, 299 n.
Strontian lead quarry, 83 and n.
Stuart, Charles Edward, lands in Scotland, 269, 323;
in Edinburgh, 342;
defeats Cope at Prestonpans, 343, 405-9;
marches into England, 174-6;
returns to Scotland, 177-87 and n;
in Glasgow, 191 and n;
besieges Stirling castle, 192, 199, 201, 302 n, 409;
defeats Hawley at Falkirk, 194-8, 409-10;
desertions from the army, 199, 201;
at Culloden house;
takes Inverness town and castle;
receives reinforcements, 205;
want of discipline in his army, 208;
at Drummossie muir, 414;
forced to fight or starve, 415;
the futile night march, 210-11 and n, 415-16;
disposition of his forces before the battle, 417;
 his responsibility for the battle of Culloden, 212-13 and n;
meets lord Lovat at Gortuleg, 227-8 and n, 418;
at Borradale, 229 and n;
driven by a storm to Benbecula, 231 and n;
lands at Scalpa, in Harris, 233;
at Kildun, 235 and n;
returns to Scalpa, 235;
chased by the Baltimore, 236;
at Benbecula, in the care of Clanranald, 237 and n;
conducted by Neil Maceachain to Corradale, 238 and n;
describes the battle of Culloden to Neil Maceachain, 239;
blames lord George Murray, 239-40;
given to drink, 241, 242 and n, 247;
claims to have shot a whale, 241;
eight days in Fuyia, 245;
visited by lady Clanranald;
sails to Lochynort, 246;
learns of the enemy being at Boisdale, 249;
meets Flora Macdonald, 251;
in a storm of wind and rain to Roshiness, 254-5;
tortured by rain and midges, 257;
joined by lady Clanranald and Flora Macdonald, 259;
narrow escape from being taken by general Campbell, 259 and
n;
disguised, 260;
his companions, 260;
at Watersay, 261;
at Trotternish, 262;
meets Kingsburgh, 264;
disguised as Betty Burke, 265;
letter to, from Murray of Broughton, 60-8.
—— Henry, cardinal. See York, duke of.
—— James Francis, 67;
letter from the Chevalier to Murray of Broughton, 30-4;
letters to, from Murray, 36, 41, 54-60.
Sutherland, William, earl of, 73 and n, 104, 109.
Swedish troops for Scotland, 12 and n, 22 and n.
Symson, Patrick, minister at Fala, an ensign in Thornton’s
company of volunteers, 158 and n.

Taylor, William, 287 n.

—— —— minister of New Deer, disarms a pillaging hussar, 151
and n.
—— of Fachfield, 121.
—— yr. of Fachfield, 121.
—— Mr., supervisor of excise, 138.
Thornton, William, of Thornville, 158 and n.
Tochineal. See Grant, Alex.
Tongue presbytery, 73 n.
Torry, 115 and n.
Towneley, Charles, of Towneley Hall, 173 n.
—— Francis, joins the prince at Preston, 172 n;
made colonel of the Manchester regiment, 173 n;
governor of Carlisle, 118 n, 186, 193.
Traquair, countess of, 51.
—— Charles Stuart, earl of, 3 and n, 4, 5, 9, 14-17 and n, 20 and
n, 22 n, 23, 25, 28 and n, 30, 32 n, 36, 39, 40-9, 51-9, 53, 56-
7, 63-5, 67.
Trotternish, 262.
Tulloch, David, in Dunbennan, 118 and n, 288 n.
Turner, yr. of Turnerhall, 121.

Urquhart, 89.
—— chamberlain of. See Grant, John.
—— colonel, 18.
Vaughan, William, joins the prince at Preston, 172 n.
Vint, Peggie, tavern-keeper in Prestonpans, 44 and n.

Waite, Thomas, 322, 329.

Walkinshaw, Clementina, 11 n.
Watersay, isle of Skye, 261.
Watson, Mr., cipher name of Macgregor of Balhaldy, q.v.
Wedderburn, Alexander, ship master, 387.
Weir or Vere, captain, a government spy, 175 and n, 193.
Wemyss, lady Elizabeth, wife of the earl of Sutherland, 73 n.
—— lady Frances, wife of Stewart of Goodtrees, 43 and n.
Whitney, colonel, killed at the battle of Falkirk, 198, 413.
Wigan, 171.
Witherspoon, John, minister of Beith, 198 n.
Wolfe, James, at Culloden, 99 n.
Wolfe’s regiment, 374, 399, 411, 417.
Wynn, sir Watkin Williams, of Wynnstay, 47 and n, 172 n.

York mayor and aldermen promise 10,000 men on the landing of

the Chevalier, 35-7.
—— Henry Stuart, duke of, 37.
Yorkshire Hunters’ regiment, 183 and n.
Printed by T. and A. Constable, Printers to His Majesty at the
Edinburgh University Press
 Scottish History Society.
THE EXECUTIVE.
1915-1916.
President.
The Earl of Rosebery, K.G., K.T., LL.D.
Chairman of Council.
Donald Crawford, K.C.
Council.

The Hon. Lord Guthrie.

D. Hay Fleming, LL.D.
James Maclehose, LL.D.
Sir James Balfour Paul, C.V.O., LL.D., Lyon King of Arms.
Sheriff Scott-Moncrieff.
A. Francis Steuart, Advocate.
C. S. Romanes, C.A.
Sir G. M. Paul, D.K.S.
R. K. Hannay.
Professor P. Hume Brown, M.A., LL.D., Historiographer-Royal
for Scotland.
William K. Dickson, Advocate.
J. R. N. Macphail, K.C.

Corresponding Members of the Council.

Prof. C. H. Firth, LL.D., Oxford; Rev. W. D. Macray, Greenlands,
Bloxham, Banbury, Oxon.; Prof. C. Sanford Terry, Aberdeen.
Hon. Treasurer.
J. T. Clark, Crear Villa, 196 Ferry Road, Edinburgh.