Textbook PART D

Resource and Environmental

Management in Canada
 PART D
• How ideas and methods from science & management can
be applied in practical problem-solving.
• How science can be used to inform analysis and
management, and how elements of best practice in
management can be applied.
• Sectors & issues addressed individually while remembering
the need for interdisciplinary and systems approaches.
• We consider implications of change, complexity, uncertainty,
conflict, intractability, and examples of human arrogance in
viewing the human-environment relationship
Chapter 8
Climate Change
 Learning Objectives
• Understand the difference between weather
and climate.
• Know the difference between climate change
and global warming.
• Appreciate why the science of climate change is
characterized by complexity and uncertainty.
• Understand the scientific evidence and
explanation for climate change.
 Learning Objectives, cont’d
• Realize the implications of climate change
for natural and human systems.
• Appreciate the challenges of sharing
information & insight about climate change.
• Understand the strategies and tactics of
“climate change deniers.”
• Appreciate the importance of including both
mitigation and adaptation in a strategy for
reducing vulnerability to climate change.
 Learning Objectives, cont’d
• Understand the implications of “geo-
engineering” initiatives related to climate change.
• Comprehend international climate negotiations
and the history of climate agreements.
• Appreciate Canada’s role in the global context as
a contributor to both climate change challenges
and solutions.
• Discover what you can do as an individual to
minimize the impact of climate change.
 Introduction
• Climate is naturally variable.
• Over the past 100 years or so, the world’s
climate has changed noticeably.

• Much uncertainty and complexity are

encountered in seeking to understand the
significance of such changes, requiring
knowledge about both science and societies.
 Nature of Climate Change
The condition of the atmosphere at any time or
place—that is, the weather—is expressed by a
combination of several elements, primarily:
1. temperature
2. precipitation and humidity
and, to a lesser degree:
3. winds
4. air pressure (elements of weather)
The weather of any place is the sum total of its
atmospheric conditions (temperature, pressure, winds,
moisture, and precipitation) for a short period of time.
Climate, on the other
hand, is a composite or
generalization of the
variety of day-to-day
weather conditions.
• not just “average
weather”
• includes seasonal shifts,
range of extremes
• is longer-term than
weather
• Climate change is a long-term shift or alteration in the
climate of a specific location, a region, or the entire
planet.

• Global warming
addresses changes only
in average surface
temperatures.
• It does not consider if
conditions are
becoming wetter or
drier, for example.
• Long-term temperature changes result from shifts in
the amount of energy received or absorbed.
• These shifts may be caused by factors such as the shape
of the Earth’s orbit around the sun, wobbles of the
Earth’s axis, and the angle of tilt (Milankovitch cycles)
Natural events, such as the eruption of large
volcanoes and changes in ocean currents, such as El
Niño, have an influence on climate.

While there are

naturally caused
variations in
climate, climatic
change is occurring
more rapidly than
ever before as a
result of human
activities.
As Earth’s surface absorbs solar radiation, the surface
increases in temperature and emits infrared radiation.

US EIA https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.php?page=environment_about_ghg
Greenhouse effect: the warming of Earth’s surface
and lower atmosphere caused by infrared (thermal)
energy that is absorbed and re-emitted by GHGs in
the atmosphere, i.e., some travels back downward,
warming the troposphere and the planet’s surface.
GHG increases enhance/increase the natural greenhouse gas effect

15
http://www.environnet.in.th/en/archives/1241
 Scientific Evidence Related to Climate
Change
The following statements are supported by solid
scientific evidence:
• The world has been warming.
• GHG emissions have been rising for several decades.
• Glaciers have lost more mass than they have gained.
• Reduced snow cover has been documented, as well as
earlier spring melting of ice on rivers and lakes.
• Total sea ice in Canada has been declining each decade.
• Over one-half of Canada is underlain by permafrost.
• The rate at which sea level is rising has been increasing.

© [Oxford University Press or author name], 2019 16

Scientific Evidence Related to Climate Change
The world has been warming

© [Oxford University Press or author name], 2019 17

IPCC 2001: TAR CLIMATE CHANGE 2001: THE SCIENTIFIC BASIS
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar3/wg1/technical-summary/

• Evidence-long-term trends [what question does this respond to?]

• Were direct or proxy indicators used to produce this graph?
14-18
© [Oxford University Press or author name], 2019 18
 Box 8.3 What’s the difference between direct versus
proxy indicators and what purposes are each type useful?

Examples of
direct
indicators?

Proxy indicators?

© [Oxford University Press or author name], 2019 19

Scientific Evidence Related to Climate Change
GHG emissions have been rising for several decades

© [Oxford University Press or author name], 2019 20

Scientific Evidence Related to Climate Change
Ice

© [Oxford University Press or author name], 2019 21

Scientific Evidence Related to Climate Change
Sea Level

© [Oxford University Press or author name], 2019 22

 Scientific Evidence Related to Climate Change
One attribute of “good science” (pg. 224)is the use of cross-
checking (or triangulating) data sources to ensure that
findings are not unduly influenced by measurement error or
limitations of any single data source.
• E.g., do these information sources agree (corroborate)
with each other in identifying a broader trend?
Is there a correlation (relationship) between GHG
emissions and atmospheric GHG concentrations below?

https://www.eia.
gov/energyexplai
ned/index.php?p
age=environmen
t_how_ghg_affe
ct_climate
25

https://serc.carleton.edu/integrate/teaching_materials/food_supply/student_materials/116
Is there a correlation (relationship) between GHG
levels and global temperature?

Weblink to
come
 Modelling Climate Change
Uncertainty associated with global climate change has
led scientists to explore different ways of assessing past
and future climates. One approach is climate modelling.
• Global climate models go back to the 1950s
• Modelling is at the forefront of climate science.
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
examine a range of future conditions (IPCC):
• RCP 2.6 - represents the lower end of emissions
• RCP 4.5 - climate policies implemented to limit GHG
• RCP 6 - stabilization of emissions by end of century
• RCP 8.5 - emissions continue to increase
Data
suggests we
are on the
RCP 8.5)
Implications of Climate Change
Terrestrial Systems: The ranges of flora & fauna will
shift. Impacts on ranges depends on capacity to migrate.
The phenology (life-cycle events) of many terrestrial
species is likely to change as well, influenced by climate
and habitat factors.
Phenological mismatch: previously synchronized life-cycle
processes become out of sync (e.g., birds and insects – food
source; spring tree buds and insects – Vancouver Island).

Woody tissue feeders (e.g., pine

beetle).

Defoliators (damage & destroy

leaves).
https://tidcf.nrcan.gc.ca/en/insects/facts
heet/2816
Consequences of change to terrestrial systems could be
dramatic—national and provincial parks, created to protect
representative ecosystems may dramatically change as the
distinctive ecosystems evolve into something totally different.

R Friberg: JNP
31
Agriculture:
A major limitation on agricultural activity in most
areas of Canada is our cold climate.
• Some areas could gain from climate change (e.g.,
extended growing season).
• Other areas will suffer from drought & extreme weather.

In some regions the

first people to be hurt
will the poorest farmers:
regional instability:
environmental
refugees.
 Implications continued
Marine and Freshwater Systems
• Every part of Canada except the southern Prairies has
become wetter, with precipitation increasing 16%
between 1950 and 2010.
• Generally higher temperatures cause higher rates of
evapotranspiration, increasing surface drying and more
moisture in the air.
• Changes in precipitation can have a range of impacts
on freshwater and marine systems including variability
in streamflow of rivers and in lake levels.
 Implications of Climate Change
Marine and Freshwater Systems
• Fish are vulnerable to changes in temperature,
precipitation, wind patterns, and chemical conditions.
• Warmer water in freshwater systems would enhance
conditions for warm-water fish but create additional
stress for cold-water fish.
• Lower water levels in lakes - degradation of shoreline
wetlands - key habitat for some species of fish.
• Impacts to humans: More rain, agricultural operations,
changes to shipping season, fisheries.
Cryosphere
• Warmer temperatures in higher latitudes to cause
melting of ice, such as the Greenland ice sheet.
• Rising sea levels due to melting ice sheets and glaciers.
• Less Arctic ice means easier passage – concerns over
sovereignty and increased shipping in an ecologically
sensitive area.
Decreased polar bear
populations, degradation of
permafrost in alpine and high-
latitude regions, shorter season
and expansive surface for
traveling, hunting.
Ocean and Coastal Systems
Both sea temperatures and sea levels are rising.
• This will affect coastal communities, the severity
depending on the nature of the coastline and the
amount of increase.
• Wave action may
become more severe
• Impacts on the
chemical composition
of oceanic waters –
warm water holds more
dissolved carbon,
increases acidity.
Health and Infectious Disease
Given the predictions about climate change in
North America, Public Health Agency of Canada
has indicated that Canadians can expect to
experience a greater incidence of disease.
• Higher incidences of water-borne diseases,
decreased food security, greater spread of disease
• This includes infectious diseases such as Lyme
disease, dengue fever, West Nile virus
Projected climate impacts BC and the
Thompson-Okanagan Region

Sourced by R. Friberg mainly from:

FLNRO Extension Note
Future Forest Ecosystems Scientific Council (FFESC)
PCIC
For BC on Average
•Mean annual temperature 1.7 to 4.6 degrees
warmer
•Interior regions will warm more than coastal
•More winter precipitation, but less as snow.
•Lower snowpacks, rapid snow melt
•Longer fire seasons
Thompson-Okanagan: (PCIC)
•1.6 to 4.4 degrees warming by end of century
•Similar to a move from Princeton to Kamloops
•Summer will warm more than other seasons
•Increased variability and extremes
•Impacts to date include Mountain Pine Beetle
Epidemic
 Projecting the Future

Regime shifts to
new functional
states:
•Douglas-fir,
Ponderosa pine
shift to grassland.
•Cedar-hemlock to
Douglas-fir.
•Ecological
surprises (next
page).

Wang et al. 2012 42

Ecosystem Change

Slide by Greg Utzig, Kutenai Nature Investigation

43
 Natural Disturbance

•More frequent and severe natural disturbances

including:
•Drought
•Insect outbreaks
(mountain & western pine
beetle, spruce beetle)
•Fire (size,
intensity,
frequency)
 Hydrology, Fish

•Lower
snowpacks.
•Earlier spring
freshet (snow
melt).

Okanagan Basin Water Board (Nelson Jatel)

•Lower
summer
flows
•Extended
low flows

Used with Permission: Nelson Jatel OBWB

•Increased
flashiness (peak
flows)
•Unstable
stream
morphology in
some cases
•Lethal fish
temperatures

Suzan Lapp, Urban Systems

 Biodiversity
•Fast dispersers (e.g., invasive species) may keep
up.
•Other species will move, be displaced, die out or
adapt.
•Natural processes may uncouple (e.g. due to
timing, predation, daylight versus temperature
drivers).
•Increase in fire will impact old growth habitat.
 Trees
•Drought stress in many cases
•Increased growth on some situations
•Some species unable to adapt or migrate in
pace.
•Shifts from forest to grassland.
•Increased mortality and disease.
Range
•Invasive may outcompete native grasses in
some cases
•Drought stress at lower elevations
•Increased growth at higher elevations
 Communicating and
Responding to Climate Change

On to Part 2!