PMT

Mark Scheme (Results)

October 2020

Pearson Edexcel IAL In Statistics 1

Paper WST03/01
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October 2020
Publications Code WST03_01_2010_MS
All the material in this publication is copyright
© Pearson Education Ltd 2020
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General Marking Guidance

• All candidates must receive the same treatment. Examiners must mark the first
candidate in exactly the same way as they mark the last.
• Mark schemes should be applied positively. Candidates must be rewarded for what
they have shown they can do rather than penalised for omissions.
• Examiners should mark according to the mark scheme not according to their
perception of where the grade boundaries may lie.
• There is no ceiling on achievement. All marks on the mark scheme should be used
appropriately.
• All the marks on the mark scheme are designed to be awarded. Examiners should
always award full marks if deserved, i.e. if the answer matches the mark
scheme. Examiners should also be prepared to award zero marks if the
candidate’s response is not worthy of credit according to the mark scheme.
• Where some judgement is required, mark schemes will provide the principles by
which marks will be awarded and exemplification may be limited.
• When examiners are in doubt regarding the application of the mark scheme to a
candidate’s response, the team leader must be consulted.
• Crossed out work should be marked UNLESS the candidate has replaced it with an
alternative response.
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EDEXCEL IAL MATHEMATICS

General Instructions for Marking

1. The total number of marks for the paper is 75.

2. The Edexcel Mathematics mark schemes use the following types of marks:

• M marks: method marks are awarded for ‘knowing a method and attempting to apply it’,
unless otherwise indicated.
• A marks: Accuracy marks can only be awarded if the relevant method (M) marks have
been earned.
• B marks are unconditional accuracy marks (independent of M marks)
• Marks should not be subdivided.

3. Abbreviations

These are some of the traditional marking abbreviations that will appear in the mark schemes.

• bod – benefit of doubt

• ft – follow through
• the symbol will be used for correct ft
• cao – correct answer only
• cso - correct solution only. There must be no errors in this part of the question to
obtain this mark
• isw – ignore subsequent working
• awrt – answers which round to
• SC: special case
• oe – or equivalent (and appropriate)
• dep – dependent
• indep – independent
• dp decimal places
• sf significant figures
•  The answer is printed on the paper
• The second mark is dependent on gaining the first mark

4. All A marks are ‘correct answer only’ (cao.), unless shown, for example, as A1 ft to
indicate that previous wrong working is to be followed through. After a misread however,
the subsequent A marks affected are treated as A ft, but manifestly absurd answers
should never be awarded A marks.

5. For misreading which does not alter the character of a question or materially simplify it,
deduct two from any A or B marks gained, in that part of the question affected.

6. If a candidate makes more than one attempt at any question:

• If all but one attempt is crossed out, mark the attempt which is NOT crossed out.
• If either all attempts are crossed out or none are crossed out, mark all the
attempts and score the highest single attempt.

7. Ignore wrong working or incorrect statements following a correct answer.

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Question
Scheme Marks
Number
1.
2(1 + α )
(a) =
E(2 =
X ) 2E( X) M1
2
= 1 + α ≠ α (therefore 2X is a biased estimator of α ) A1
(2)
(b) x=6 2x – 1 = M1
11 A1
(2)
Total 4
Notes
(a) 1+ α
M1 for use of 2 ×
2
A1cso correct comparison with α and no incorrect working seen.

1+ α
≠ α is M0A0
2

(b) M1 for attempt at x and use of 2x – 1 or ft use of their E( X ) from part (a) to
find an estimate for α
A1 11 cao
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Question
Scheme Marks
Number
2.
(a) Expected values: 13.75, 19.25, 17 B1
(18 − 13.75) 2
(15 − 19.25) 2
(17 − 17) 2
M1
13.75 19.25 17
Pass 1.31 0.94 0 2.25
9.43 A2

(4)
H 0 : Degree/category is independent of department (no association)
(b) B1
H1 : Degree/category is not independent of department (association)
ν = (3 − 1)(3 − 1) = 4 B1
χ (5%) = 9.488
2
4 B1ft
‘9.43’ < 9.488, so do not reject H 0 / not significant M1
Not enough evidence to show that the Degree/category is not independent of
A1ft
department (no association) (at the 5% level of significance)
(5)
Total 9
Notes
(a) B1 All correct expected values (may be implied by A2)
(O − E ) 2
M1 Attempting for their E (may be implied by one correct value)
E
A2 all 5 values correct (allow awrt)
(A1 any 2 values correct)

(b) B1 Both hypotheses required must mention degree/category and department at least once. Use of
“relationship” or “correlation” or “connection” or “link” award B0.
B1 4 can be implied by 9.488 seen
B1ft 9.488 or better. Follow through their ν so may see χ 3,0.05
2
= 7.815 χ 2,0.05
2
= 5.991
M1 Correct non-contextual conclusion for their (a) and c.v. Can be implied by correct
conclusion in context ft their (a) and c.v.
A1ft A correct comment in context.
Condone “relationship” or “connection” here but not “correlation”.
Follow through from their test statistic and cv, but hypotheses must be correct.
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Question
Scheme Marks
Number
3.

200m 400m d d2
A 3 1 2 4
B 2 2 0 0
C 1 4 –3 9
(a) M1 A1
D 4 5 –1 1
E 7 7 0 0
F 6 6 0 0
G 5 3 2 4

∑ d 2 =18 A1
6 ×18 19
rs =
1− = =
awrt 0.679 dM1 A1
7 × 48 28
(5)
H0 : ρ = 0
(b) B1
H1 : ρ > 0
Critical value 0.7143 B1
(0.679 < 0.7143) so insufficient evidence to reject H 0 M1
There is insufficient evidence to suggest a positive correlation between the
finishing order in the 200 metre race and the finishing order in the 400 metre A1ft
race.
(4)
(c) There are tied lengths so use average ranks B1
Sxy
Then use rs = dB1
SxxS yy
(2)
Total 11
Notes
(a) M1 for an attempt to rank athletes lists (at least 3 correct for each)
A1 for correct rankings for both (may be reversed). Can be implied by correct ∑ d 2
A1 ∑ d 2 =18
dM1 (dep upon previous M1) for use of the correct formula, follow through their ∑ d 2
A1 awrt 0.679

(b) B1 both hypotheses correct ρ or ρ s

B1 for correct c.v. (sign should match H1 or rs )
M1 ft their rs and their c.v.
A1 ft a correct contextualised comment including positive correlation and races/finishing orders
(oe) with all previous marks in (b) scored

(c) B1 for use of average ranks or use of 1.5 or 6.5(for C and D)/4.5 or 3.5 (for B and G)
dB1 (dep on 1st B1) for use of pmcc (with the average ranks)
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Question
Scheme Marks
Number
4. (a) Randomly select a student from 1 to 7 oe B1
Take every 7th student B1
(2)
(b) ν = 10 − 1 = 9 χ 92 (10%) = 14.684 B1 B1ft
No evidence (at 10% level of significance) that the digits generated do not
dB1
follow a uniform distribution.
(3)
H 0 : Uniform distribution is a good fit (for the two-digit numbers generated)
(c) B1
H1 : Uniform distribution is not a good fit (for the two-digit numbers generated)

O E (O − E ) 2 O2
E E
31 40 2.025 24.025 B1
49 40 2.025 60.025 M1 A1
30 40 2.5 22.5
42 40 0.1 44.1
48 40 1.6 57.6
200 200 8.25 208.25
(O − E ) 2 = 8.25
2
or ∑ O
∑ E E
− 200 = 8.25 A1

χ 42 (10%) = 7.779 B1
[8.25 > 7.779] Reject H 0 / Significant M1
There is evidence to suggest the two-digit numbers generated may not follow a
A1
uniform distribution.
(8)
To generate a simple random sample, Luka would need to generate two-digit
(d) B1
numbers (from 00 to 69)
But Luka’s table would not be suitable for generating random two-digit
B1ft
numbers
(2)
Total 15
Notes
B1 for the idea of generating a random number to determine first student selected
(a)
B1 for every 7th student (not just select 40 students)
(b) B1 for correct degrees of freedom (may be implied by 2nd B1)
B1ft for correct critical value 14.684 or better ft their d.f. so may see χ102 (10%) = 15.987
B1 (dependent upon 2nd B1) for correct conclusion in context with digits (oe) and uniform distr.
(c) B1 Both hypotheses correct
B1 All expected values = 40
M1 Attempting (O − E ) or O 2 with at least 3 correct (1 dp truncated or rounded) or f.t. their E
2

E E
A1 all (O − E ) 2 or O2 correct (1 dp truncated or rounded). May be implied by 8.25 or 208.25
E E
A1 8.25 oe
B1 correct critical value 7.779 or better
M1 for a correct non-contextual conclusion (ignore any contradictory contextual comments for
this mark) based on their cv and their test statistic
A1 correct conclusion in context with all previous marks scored
(d) B1 for the idea of generating two-digit numbers (for a simple random sample)
B1ft Luka’s table not suitable for generating two-digit random numbers for a simple random
sample, ft parts (b) and (c)
SC: If B0B0 scored, ‘table only suitable for generating one-digit random numbers’ scores B0B1
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Question
Scheme Marks
Number
5.

(a) =
s A2
1
39
( 790258 − 140.42 × 40 ) =
sB2
1
31
( 581430 − 134.7 2 × 32 ) M1

= 45.4256…. awrt 45.4 = 26.4232… awrt 26.4 A1 A1

(3)
(b) H0 : µ A − µB =
5 B1
H1 : µ A − µ B > 5 B1
45.4256... 26.4232...
s.e. = + (= awrt 1.4) M1
40 32
±(140.4 − 134.7 − 5)
z= = awrt 0.50 dM1 A1
s.e.
c.v. = 1.6449 B1
(Do not reject H 0 ) Insufficient evidence to support the greengrocer’s belief.
(Insufficient evidence that the difference in weight between type A oranges and A1ft
type B oranges is over 5 grams).
(7)
(c) Large sample sizes so…
Sample means are normally distributed (CLT) B1
s A2 = σ A2 and sB2 = σ B2 B1
(2)
Total 12
Notes
(a) M1 one correct expression
A1 either awrt 45.4 or awrt 26.4
A1 both awrt 45.4 and awrt 26.4

(b) B1 Allow equivalent rearrangements. Must use µ

B1 Allow equivalent rearrangements. Must use µ .
For both hypotheses do not allow e.g. µ1 and µ 2 unless each has been clearly defined

M1 attempt at standard error (allow one slip) ft their (a)

dM1 standardising with (140.4 – 134.7 – 5) and their s.e. (dep on previous M1)
A1 for 0.5 or awrt 0.50
B1 correct c.v. 1.6449 or better. Allow –1.6449 or better with use of µ B − µ A
Allow p = awrt 0.309
A1ft correct ft conclusion in context with either greengrocer’s belief (oe) or difference in
weights (oe) dependent on all B and M marks scored.

(c) B1 must comment on both sample means, A and B

B1 must comment on both variances/standard deviations
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Question
Scheme Marks
Number
6.
(a) T ~ N(4, 354 ) M1 A1
(2)
(b) K ~ N(λ , 40 )
λ
M1
λ
2 × 2.5758 × =
2.6 B1 M1
40
λ = awrt 10.2 A1
(4)
(c) 2 × 0.99 × 0.01 M1
= 0.0198 A1
(2)
Total 8
Notes
(a) M1 for Normal distribution
A1 for correct mean and variance (allow N(4, awrt 0.114))

(b) λ
M1 for use of 40 if λ = σ is used, then M0
B1 for ±2.5758 (may be implied by sight of 10.188…)
'σ '
M1 for use of 2 × z × =2.6 with |z| > 2
40
A1 awrt 10.2 (an answer of 10.15…or awrt 10.2 on its own scores M1B0M1A1)

SC: Use of λ instead of λ leading to an answer of awrt 3.19… scores M0B1M1A0

(c) M1 for 2 p(1 – p) for any p 0 < p < 1

A1 0.0198
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Question
Scheme Marks
Number
7.
(a) C1 + C2 + C3 ~ N(480, 3 ×1.252 ) M1 A1
 475.8 − 480 
P(C1 + C2 + C3 > 475.8) =
P Z > (=
−1.94)  M1
 3 ×1.25 2

= awrt 0.974 A1
(4)
(b) W = T1 + T2 + T3 + T4 + T5 + C1 + C2 ~ N(5 × 60 + 2 ×160, 5 × 2 + 2 ×1.25 )
2 2
M1 A1
 625 − 620 
P(W > 625) = P  Z > (= 1.03975...)  M1
 23.125 
= awrt 0.149 A1
(4)

n
(c) Y =(n − 1)T1 − ∑ Tr
r =2

Y ~ N( µ , σ )2

µ = (n − 1) × 60 − (n − 1) × 60 [= 0] M1 A1
σ 2 = (n − 1) 2 × 4 + (n − 1) × 4 [= 4n 2 − 4n] M1 A1
40 − 0
= 1.38 M1 B1
4n 2 − 4n
4n 2 − 4n − 840(.159...) = 0 dM1
n = 15 A1
(8)
Total 16
Notes
(a) M1 for setting up Normal distribution with mean 480
A1 for correct expression for variance (= 4.6875) or for standard deviation (= 2.165…)
M1 standardising with 475.8, 480 and their standard deviation (their standard deviation ≠ 3.75)
A1 awrt 0.974

(b) M1 for setting up Normal distribution with mean 620

A1 for correct expression for variance (= 23.125) or for standard deviation (= 4.8088…)
M1 standardising with 625, 620 and their standard deviation
A1 awrt 0.149

(c) M1 for a single combined normal distribution (may be implied by a single standardisation)
A1 correct expression for µ
M1 for use of a 2 × 4 + a × 4
A1 correct expression for σ 2
M1 standardising with their mean and their sd = z where 1< |z| < 1.5
B1 awrt 1.38
dM1 solving their 3TQ (working must be shown if answer is incorrect) (dependent upon 2nd M1)
A1 15 cao (must reject –14 if found). Must come from compatible signs in standardisation.
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