Unit I
Unit I
Objective:
To access the demand for a particular product.
To make optimal business decisions by integrating the concepts of economics,
mathematics and statistics.
To understand the economic goals of the firms and optimal decision making.
Syllabus:
Unit 1: Introduction to Managerial Economics
Definition, Nature and Scope of Managerial Economics Relation of Managerial Economics
with other disciplines.
Demand Analysis: Demand Determinants, Law of Demand and its exceptions, Significance &
Types of Elasticity of Demand. Factors governing demand forecasting- Methods of Demand
forecasting.
Learning Outcomes:
Know the various factors that influence demand of particular product
Forecast the future demand using various tools & Techniques
Take the Further Decisions based on demand
Learning Material
Introduction
Managerial Economics as a subject gained popularity in USA after the publication of the book
Managerial Economics by Joel Dean in 1951.
Managerial Economics refers to the firms decision making process. It could be also interpreted
as Economics of Management or Economics of Management. Managerial Economics is
also called as Industrial Economics or Business Economics.
As Joel Dean observes managerial economics shows how economic analysis can be used in
formulating polices.
Meaning & Definition:
In the words of E. F. Brigham and J. L. Pappas Managerial Economics is the applications of
economics theory and methodology to business administration practice.
Managerial Economics bridges the gap between traditional economics theory and real business
practices in two days. First it provides a number of tools and techniques to enable the manager to
become more competent to take decisions in real and practical situations. Secondly it serves as
an integrating course to show the interaction between various areas in which the firm operates.
M. H. Spencer and Louis Siegelman explain the Managerial Economics is the integration of
economic theory with business practice for the purpose of facilitating decision making and
forward planning by management.
Nature of Managerial Economics
Managerial economics is, perhaps, the youngest of all the social sciences. Since it originates
from Economics, it has the basis features of economics, such as assuming that other things
remaining the same (or the Latin equivalent ceteris paribus). This assumption is made to simplify
the complexity of the managerial phenomenon under study in a dynamic business environment
so many things are changing simultaneously. This set a limitation that we cannot really hold
other things remaining the same. In such a case, the observations made out of such a study will
have a limited purpose or value. Managerial economics also has inherited this problem from
economics.
The other features of managerial economics are explained as below:
(a) Close to microeconomics: Managerial economics is concerned with finding the solutions for
different managerial problems of a particular firm. Thus, it is more close to
microeconomics.
(b) Operates against the backdrop of macroeconomics: The macroeconomics conditions of the
economy are also seen as limiting factors for the firm to operate. In other words, the
managerial economist has to be aware of the limits set by the macroeconomics conditions
such as government industrial policy, inflation and so on.
(c) Normative statements: A normative statement usually includes or implies the words
ought or should. They reflect peoples moral attitudes and are expressions of what a
team of people ought to do. For instance, it deals with statements such as Government of
India should open up the economy. Such statement are based on value judgments and
express views of what is good or bad, right or wrong.
(d) Prescriptive actions: Prescriptive action is goal oriented. Given a problem and the
objectives of the firm, it suggests the course of action from the available alternatives for
optimal solution. If does not merely mention the concept, it also explains whether the
concept can be applied in a given context on not.
(e) Applied in nature: Models are built to reflect the real life complex business situations
and these models are of immense help to managers for decision-making. The different areas
where models are extensively used include inventory control, optimization, project
management etc. In managerial economics, we also employ case study methods to
conceptualize the problem, identify that alternative and determine the best course of action.
(f) Offers scope to evaluate each alternative: Managerial economics provides an opportunity
to evaluate each alternative in terms of its costs and revenue. The managerial economist can
decide which is the better alternative to maximize the profits for the firm.
(g) Interdisciplinary: The contents, tools and techniques of managerial economics are drawn
from different subjects such as economics, management, mathematics, statistics,
accountancy, psychology, organizational behavior, sociology and etc.
(h) Assumptions and limitations: Every concept and theory of managerial economics is based
on certain assumption and as such their validity is not universal. Where there is change in
assumptions, the theory may not hold good at all.
10 1
8 2
6 3
4 4
2 5
Price
When price increases from OP to Op1 quantity demanded also increases from to OQ1 and vice
versa. The reasons for exceptional demand curve are as follows.
1. Giffen paradox
2. Veblen or Demonstration effect
3. Ignorance
4. Speculative effect
5. Fear of shortage
6. Necessaries
Factors Affecting Demand:
There are factors on which the demand for a commodity depends. These factors are economic,
social as well as political factors. The effect of all the factors on the amount demanded for the
commodity is called Demand Function.
These factors are as follows:
1. Price of the Commodity
2. Income of the Consumer
3. Prices of related goods
4. Tastes of the Consumers
5. Wealth
6. Population
7. Government Policy
8. Expectations regarding the future:
9. Climate and weather
10. State of business
ELASTICITY OF DEMAND
Elasticity of demand explains the relationship between a change in price and consequent change
in amount demanded. Marshall introduced the concept of elasticity of demand. Elasticity of
demand shows the extent of change in quantity demanded to a change in price.
Elastic demand: A small change in price may lead to a great change in quantity demanded. In
this case, demand is elastic.
In-elastic demand: If a big change in price is followed by a small change in demanded then the
demand in inelastic.
Types of Elasticity of Demand:
There are three types of elasticity of demand:
1. Price elasticity of demand
2. Income elasticity of demand
3. Cross elasticity of demand
Quantity demanded remains the same, even though money income increases. Symbolically, it
can be expressed as Ey=0. It can be depicted in the following way:
When income increases from OY to OY1, Quantity demanded also increases from OQ to OQ1.
d. Income elasticity greater than unity:
In this case, an increase in come brings about a more than proportionate increase in quantity
demanded. Symbolically it can be written as Ey > 1.
a. In case of substitutes, cross elasticity of demand is positive. Eg: Coffee and Tea
When the price of coffee increases, Quantity demanded of tea increases. Both are substitutes.
b. In case of compliments, cross elasticity is negative. If increase in the price of one commodity
leads to a decrease in the quantity demanded of another and vice versa.
c.
In case of unrelated commodities, cross elasticity of demanded is zero. A change in the price of
one commodity will not affect the quantity demanded of another.
I.Survey method.
1) Survey of buyers intention.
A] Census method
B] Sample method.
2) Sales force opinion method.
II.Statistical methods
1) Trend projection method.
A] Trend line observation.
B] Least square method.
C] Time series analysis.
D] Moving average method.
E] Exponential smoothing.
2) Barometric techniques.
3) Simultaneous equations method.
4) Correlation & regression method.
I. Survey methods:-
To anticipate what buyers are likely to do under a given set of circumstances, a most
useful source of information would be the buyers themselves. It is better to draw a list of all
potential buyers, approach each buyer to ask how much does her plans to buy of the given
product at a given point of time under particular conditions.
This is the most effective method because the buyer is the ultimate decision maker and
we are collecting the information directly from him.
The survey of the buyers can be conducted either by covering the whole population or by
selecting a sample group of buyers.
Example 1:
Sales (lakhs) 75 84 92 98 88
Sol:
Σ S = N x + yΣ T
Σ ST = x Σ T + yΣ (T * T )
1992 1 75 75 1
1994 3 84 252 9
1996 5 92 460 25
1998 7 98 686 49
2000 9 88 792 81
The following 4 major components analyzed from time series while forecasting the demand.
Trend (T):
It also called as long term trend, is the result f basic developments in the population,
capital formation & technology. These developments relate to over a period of long time say 5 t0
10 years, not definitely over night. The trend is considered statistically significant when it has
reasonable degree of consistency. A significant trend is central and decisive factor considered
while preparing a long range forecast.
Example: - Compute 3-day moving average from the following daily sales data.
Jan 1 40
Jan 2 44
Jan 3 48
Jan 4 45 44
Jan 5 53 45.7
Sol:-
To calculate 3-days moving avg
S4 = (40 + 44 + 48)/ 3 == 44
S5 = (44 + 48 + 45)/3 == 45.7
5) EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING:
This is a more popular technique used for short-run forecasts. This method is an
improvement over moving averages method.
All time periods ( ranging from the immediate part to distant part ) here are given varying
weights , that is the value of the given variable in the recent times are given higher weights and
the values of the given variable in the distant past are given relatively lower weights for further
processing.
The formula used for exponential smoothing,
S t + 1 == c S T + (1 -- C) S MT
S t + 1 == exponentially smoothed average for New Year.
S t == actual data in the most recent part.
S Mt == most recent smoothed forecast.
C = smoothing constant.
If the smoothing constant ` c ` is higher, higher weight is given to the most recent
information. The value of `c` varies between `0` and inclusive and the exact values of `c` is
determined by the magnitude of random variation. If the magnitude of random variations is large,
lower values of c are assigned and vice versa. However, it is considered that a value between 0.1
& 0.2 is more appropriate in most of cases.
BAROMETRIC TECHNIQUES:
Where forecasting based on time series analyses or extrapolation may not yield
significant results, barometric techniques can be made use of . Under the barometric technique,
one set of data is use to predict another set.
To forecast demand for a particular product or service, use some other relevant indicator which is
known as a barometer of future demand.
To assess the demand for services in India and abroad. We can see the percentage of
population in each occupation. In the US 78%of the labour force is employed in services 15% of
them in manufacturing. In India, according to 1991 census, 21%of work force is engaged in
services, 13%in manufacturing, and 67% in agriculture. The world over, an increase in
prosperity has been accomplished by an increase in demand for services.
EXPERT OPINION:
Well informed persons are called experts. Experts constitute yet another source of
information. These persons are generally the generally the outside experts and they do not have
any vested interests in the results of a particular survey.
Main advantages are:
1. Results of this method would be more reliable as the expert is unbiased, has no direct
commercial involvement in its primary activities.
2. Independent demand forecast can be made relatively quick and cheap.
3. This method constitutes a valid strategy particularly in the case of new products.
The main disadvantage is that an expert cant be held accountable if his estimates are found
incorrect.
TEST MARKETING:
It is likely that opinions give in by buyers, sales man or other experts may be at times,
misleading. This is the reason why most of the manufacturers favour to test there product or
service in a limited matter as test-run before they launch their products nation wide.
Advantages:
1. Acceptability of the product can be judged in a limited market.
2. Before its too late, the corrections can be made to product design if necessary, thus
major catestrophy, in terms of failure, can be avoided.
3. The customer psychology is more focused in this method and the product and services
are aligned or redesigned accordingly to gain more customer acceptance.
Disadvantages:
1. It reveals the quality of product to the competitors before it is launched in his wider
market. The competitors may bring about a similar product or often misuse the results
of the test marketing against the given company.
2. It is not always easy to select a representative audience or market.
3. It may also be difficult to extrapolate the feedback received from such a test market,
particularly where the chosen market is not fully representative.
CONTROLLED EXPERIMENTS:
Controlled experiments refer to such exercises where some of the major determinants of
demand are manipulated to suit to the customers with different tastes and preferences, income
groups and such others. This method can not provide better results, unless these markets are
homogenous in terms of, tastes and preferences of customers, their income and soon.
This method is in infancy state and not much tried because of following reasons:
It is costly and time consuming. It involves elaborate process of studying different
markets and different permutations and combinations that push the product aggressively. If it
fails in one market, it may affect other markets also.
JUDGEMENT APPROACH:
When none of the above methods are directly related to the given product or service, the
management has no other alternative than using its own judgment. Even when the above
methods are used, the forecasting process is supplemented with the factor of judgment for the
following reasons:
Assignment-Cum-Tutorial Questions
8. Isoquants that are downward-sloping straight lines imply that the inputs
(a) are perfect substitutes. (c) are imperfect substitutes.
(b) cannot be used together. (d) must be used together in a certain proportion.
II) Problems:
1) If the price of a product is 1000/- and the quantity demand is 10,000 units. When the price
falls to 800/- and the quantity demanded rises to 16,000units, calculate the price elasticity
of demand
2) Determine the Advertising elasticity of demand given that
The quantity demanded for product M is 10,000 units per day at a monthly advertising
budget of Rs.10,000
The monthly advertising budget is slashed to Rs.5000; the quantity demanded will fall
down to 30,000 units per day.