Prace Geograficzne, zeszyt 130
Instytut Geografii i Gospodarki Przestrzennej UJ
Kraków 2012, 131 – 139
doi: 10.4467/20833113PG.12.024.0665
QUANTITATIVE OR QUALITATIVE TRANSPORT
PLANNING ? AN INTERDISCIPLINARY
GEOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVE
Sebastian Książkiewicz
Abstract: The paper is an attempt to critical discuss of the evolution of transport planning notion
in the research literature – including the geographical one. The author presents key points of this
discipline and reviews the difficulties associated with qualitative research on mobility – a field
usually characterized by rational behavior prompted by external factors and economic factors.
The social sciences suggest that mobility results in outcomes driven by social and psychologi-
cal needs. The author suggests that geography is an important element of the interdisciplinary
approach needed to analyze transport behaviors in both qualitative and quantitative terms.
Finally, the author discusses space syntax theory and its applicability in research on the effects
of geographic space on mobility.
Keywords: geography, transport, space syntax, motion potential
Introduction
Issues associated with transport have been discussed by researchers from a wide
variety of disciplines that attempt to model and forecast transport behaviors. Since
the journey is an integral part of transport, it is expected that the transport sciences
will be interested in the effects of various forms of movement on individuals and
their decisions. Yet, most research studies focus on the understanding and description
of optimal solutions designed for communities in the form of quantitative models
describing reality. The author attempts to analyze the reasons behind the general
preference for quantitative research over qualitative research. In addition, the paper
provides a brief review of transport research and its effect on the current approach
to research in this field. The search for effective solutions in the realm of mobility is
also presented from a geographical point of view – a sensitive to the spatial context
of this issue. Geography has a rich tradition of theoretical and empirical research in
areas such as spatial integration, network analysis and behavioral science.
132 Prace Geograficzne, zeszyt 130
Public transport provides certain benefits from the perspective of sustainable devel-
opment, however, the planning process is based on a classical approach that can distort
analytical results and lead to a situation where the public transport network does not
really meet the expectations of society. This prompts the following questions: Can
this be changed? Can forecasts be made to include both qualitative and quantitative
data? What role can geography play in research on mobility? After all, geography is an
interdisciplinary science that functions at the intersection of many research disciplines.
The last part of the paper suggests the use of space syntax theory in the modeling
of spatial accessibility as it relates to public transport and the analysis of movement
potential known as through movement in urban areas. Virtually every journey aboard
a public transport vehicle begins and ends with walking. The ability to easily walk
from one mode of transport to another at transport hubs affects the individual’s choice
of means of transport (Olszewski 2008). The development of a method designed to
asses the effect of spatial structure on pedestrian traffic may be one way of finding
a solution to the problem of qualitative context in mobility research.
While existing journey models are quite advanced, so-called soft quality issues are
rarely considered in mobility research and research on the decisions involved in the
process of choosing a mode of transport. There is a general lack of models that would
be clearly applicable in Poland (Dudek, Rudnicki 2008). On the other hand, it seems
that the issue of quality in transport research ought to be considered on a local scale
in light of the fact that every urban area is unique and the definition of quality, as it
applies to transport, may differ even within one country.
Evolution of transport planning
The task of individuals planning transport systems is to design systems that would be
useful, efficient and effective and would meet the expectations of society. These may
include its transport capability as well as its role in spatial management, environmen-
tal protection and social equality. Planning is essentially a linear process of problem
solving and includes analyses, evaluations and implementations of optimal solutions.
The transport planning process usually includes an assessment of journey potential,
demographical and urban planning forecasts, and creation of alternative solutions
designed to help identify the best possible option.
Advanced transport planning is closely associated with the emergence of the auto-
mobile as a means of transport in the 1920s (Kenneth 1985). The evaluation of projects
and transport services in the context of economic development has come to dominate
transport research ever since.
In order to better understand the spatial distribution of the means of production and
demand, graphical models are used to explain the flow of traffic (Erlander, Stewart
1990). The best example of those is the sensitivity of demand for a journey relative
to distance, as explained by the gravitational model. Detailed analyses of movement
are also described using the laws of physics “borrowed” directly from the natural
sciences. One example of this is the analogy with the flow of water, which is used to
explain the flow of traffic.
Quantitative or qualitative transport planning ? ... 133
The qualitative aspects of travel were not considered in transport planning until
recently. The above mentioned analyses are based on a perception of mobility as a form
of mass movement, which ought to be analyzed at a macro level (Rajé 2007). These
fundamental notions remain valid today, but the range of criteria used to evaluate trans-
port planning has expanded considerably. Early homogenous models of mobility have
been replaced by analyses that involve non-motor vehicle travel, ecological considera-
tions and social considerations. The economic basis of demand has been expanded to
include the notion of customer satisfaction as the key forecasting factor (Bates 2000).
Quantitative descriptive variables – research directions
in modern transport planning
The definition of the effectiveness of a transport system has changed over time. How-
ever, the creation of an effective system remains the basic task of transport planners,
who tend to focus on quantitative criteria developed in the 1950s (Pas 1986). It is now
important to identify the key elements of planning paradigms and to consider what
role they ought to play today.
The analysis and modeling of the demand for transport are usually based on travel
time and cost and both are used as parameters designed to explain human behavior
(Pipkin 1986; Richardson 2005). According to this view, users of a transport system
want to minimize their expenses and the time it takes to reach their destination. Other
factors are rarely considered and tend to be viewed as secondary factors in terms of
their ability to explain human behavior. Sometimes certain intermediate costs are
considered – these include comfort, air conditioning, ambience, etc. An even greater
simplification is obtained when travel time is converted into monetary value, which
reduces the number of parameters to one (general costs). This type of approach leads
to a very simple model of human behavior. Yet, this type of approach is very com-
mon in transport research, although it has its critics (McNally 2000). In summary, if
analyses and models are based on strictly economic criteria, then this creates the risk
of omitting other important factors at the project design stage.
In the field of transport research, travel times and costs are closely linked to the
assumption that individuals make conscious decisions based on a rational assessment
of various alternatives when planning a journey. This model reflects the notion that
man is economically rational and that specific human behaviors in the realm of eco-
nomics can be explained in terms of purely rational (optimal) choices – the idea that
economic man means rational man (Wach 2010). Today the issue of quality is handled
by fields such as psychology and marketing, which have made attempts over the last
few decades to understand and describe the mechanisms behind human behaviors
in the context of a cognitive paradigm.
Yet another cognitive notion in transport research is a theory that assumes that
mobility is only driven by the desire to satisfy economic needs (Barber 1986). A mis-
match between the location of supply and the location of demand prompts individuals
to migrate or travel. Newer interpretations of this notion assume the existence
of non-material needs such as the need to travel for recreational purposes. However,
134 Prace Geograficzne, zeszyt 130
the basic theory remains the same and serves as the key to understanding the dif-
ficulty traditional transport research has had in the analysis of subjective elements of
mobility. The above mentioned theories rely on the assumption that every journey
is forced upon travelers by external factors and that the experience of travel and the
ambience involved are not important from a forecasting perspective. For example,
one economic parameter is not sufficient to explain internal mobility (Mokhtarian,
Salomon 2001; Ory, Mokhtarian 2005)
The time spent on a journey is also analyzed in economic terms. The optimiza-
tion of transport systems is supposed to reduce travel time. This assumption makes
it difficult for passive travelers to identify the effects of movement and the fact that
the travel time might be used in other ways. Detailed research studies on human
activity during travel were quite rare until recently (Lyons et al. 2007). This is a good
point to distinguish between individual travel and group travel, as these two situations
are different in terms of priorities, needs, expectations and perceptions of geographic
space (Tuan Yi-Fu 1987).
The principal subject of discussion in transport planning is the attainment of quanti-
tative success. Increased mobility is desirable due to its positive economic effect. While
this basic notion is disputed to some extent in some research circles (Knoflacher 1999),
it is likely that the fundamentals of transport science and planning will not change.
Transport optimization models do not take into account the quality of travel, as it is
subjectively described by passengers (Dudek, Rudnicki 2008). Any type of change
in the perception of transport may require a new analysis of the role of quantitative
and qualitative aspects of mobility.
Creative dimension of modeling
Despite many attempts to create rational, methodological and credible transport models,
evaluation and forecasting in the planning process are not immune to manipulation.
Criteria used as objective quantitative data are often used without an appropriate
initial assessment of their usefulness based on subjective choices. Many research
studies are designed to help understand the evaluation process by questioning the
notion of rational decision making based on complete information. Information on
available options may not be complete. Criteria may be weighted in a number of dif-
ferent ways. Coefficients may change due to internal and external circumstances, and
decisions about destination, mode, time are not independent of each other (Pipkin
1986). Two aspects of planning may be subject to criticism: 1) variety of criteria used
to make decisions, 2) means of processing them. In order to correctly understand the
act of traveling, one can use criteria other than those used in transport planning today.
This brings up the issue of the evaluation of qualitative factors (Duckenfield 2005;
Gärling, Axhausen 2003).
The basic job of modeling tools is to reduce the complexity of reality. It takes a lot of
effort to build a model based on the smallest number of parameters. The primacy
of this argument creates the risk that some important aspects of reality will be omitted
and certain erroneous simplifications and extrapolations will be made.
Quantitative or qualitative transport planning ? ... 135
Planning has always involved a certain creative dimension. This is clearly visible
in infrastructure projects as well as the development of transport services and their
terms of use. The generation of development scenarios requires creative skills in order
to produce attractive and effective solutions that match a given set of circumstances.
However, creativity often encounters a variety of barriers or established ways of doing
things. Furthermore, the creation of prognostic models based on subjective aspects
of travel requires the establishment of norms in this area and a careful consideration
of whether they will reflect user expectations and desires in an appropriate manner.
The use of micro-simulation and task-oriented modeling can help in the analysis of
mutual relationships and consequences of travel choices (Meyer 2001).
Interdisciplinary research – the geographical perspective
on transport planning?
When considering ways to empirically capture and formulate qualitative factors useful
in transport planning, several questions come to mind that serve as a basis for further
discussion. First, how can one analytically capture subjective quality criteria? Second,
how do they affect transport systems? A list of criteria is a good starting point in the
attempt to construct models that consider both the quality and the subjectivity of the
choice of a travel destination. In light of the multiplicity of terms and methods used in
human mobility research, it is difficult to draw simple conclusions. Certainly the use
of research papers from the fields of sociology and psychology can help. It is helpful to
focus on the individual when attempting to understand various aspects of motivation
and perception associated with the choice of the means of transport and the choice
of destination. Nevertheless, this is just a certain idea to be considered at this point.
Transport is spatial in nature, which is why it is often the subject of research in ge-
ography. From the geographical perspective, the application of both quantitative and
qualitative research methods may be viewed as either an advantage or disadvantage.
One unique aspect of geography is its interdisciplinary nature, which creates an op-
portunity to look at a complex problem from a variety of perspectives. Another major
advantage of geography is its spatial perspective as well as its focus on regional research,
which can be quite helpful in the construction of complex transport models. While
the procedure for creating models is somewhat standardized, most models are designed
to meet the needs of a specific geographical area. The regional nature of geography
may be helpful in the critical, and at the same time, realistic evaluation of the useful-
ness of a spatial model. A geographer with a keen knowledge of a given region may
be able to better identify the modifications a given model needs to explain transport
behaviors. However, the risk associated with interdisciplinary research is that certain
key elements of analysis will be omitted due to the specific nature of a science at the
intersection of many different fields of research.
One of the current trends in the geography of transport is an increase of the research
studies number. However, the research literature also identifies a need to correlate
research on transport with that in human geography (Knowles 2006; Preston, O’Connor
2008) due to a predominance of transport studies based on quantitative methods
136 Prace Geograficzne, zeszyt 130
(Goetz 2006). One reason for this predominance is technological progress in the field
of computer science, which has made it possible to apply more powerful statistical
methods (Sheppard 2001). Nevertheless, transport geography remains open to other
research methods and the disparity between qualitative and quantitative studies can
be reduced by more research in the social sciences (Aoyama et al. 2006). A number
of papers on the geography of transport have been published in recent years that
combine qualitative and quantitative research methods (Kwan 2000; Fowler 2006).
Space Syntax – analysis of the potential of pedestrian traffic
Space Syntax Theory was formulated in 1984 by Bill Hillier and Julienne Hanson at
University College London. The theory is based on the unity of geographical space
and the society that occupies it. According to this theory, people create geographical
space, and conversely, this space affects human behavior and community relationships.
The theory describes the relationship between communities and geographical space
and translates that relationship into specific values, which can be used to rather accu-
rately predict relations between geographical space and social processes.
Space Syntax is a notion related to the theory and tools used to analyze mechanisms
behind collective human behaviors encountered across urban space (Hillier 1996).
The analysis of human flow across geographical space makes it possible to determine,
at least to some extent, the conditions needed to generate movement. The motives
that prompt pedestrians to traverse the geographical space may be explained in terms
of mutually determining external and internal relationships.
Space Syntax Theory can help link quantitative and qualitative research methods.
The potential of pedestrian traffic in an urban space directly affects the passenger load
of public transport vehicles and constitutes a variable that represents human behavior.
The most common space syntax methods include Visibility Graph Analysis (V G A)
(Turner et al. 2001) and Inter Connection Density (I C D), both of which effectively
predict the direction and density of pedestrian traffic.
The basic procedure for modeling movement using Space Syntax Theory is to
calculate the relationship between lines in a set of axial lines that follow pedestrian
footsteps – their number, direction and location of nodes. Algorithms can be used to
show topological accessibility based on the frequency of journeys and not based on
physical accessibility, as is the case in traditional models. The final result of this type
of analysis is an output map (see Fig. 1.) that can be made available at any scale and
that identifies the potential of each element of the urban network.
The space syntax model of the city makes it possible for urban planners to perform
analyses at both the macro level and the micro level. The same model can be used
in short-term and long-term simulations, which helps to quickly generate alternative
scenarios. Given an analysis of all the connections in a city, it is possible to simulate
pedestrian traffic at planned public transport hubs. This may help answer two ques-
tions: 1) How will planned public transport systems affect pedestrian traffic in a given
area ? 2) Is potential pedestrian traffic in a given quartile sufficient to warrant a hub
at that location?
Legend: red – high accessibility, blue – low accessibility.
Fig. 1. An output map of axial-based spatial accessibility of London
Source: www.spacesyntax.com
Quantitative or qualitative transport planning ? ... 137
Traffic is affected by a variety of factors, which is why a single equation cannot be
used to describe all human behaviors. Nevertheless, an understanding of how spatial
structure affects traffic can be quite helpful in transport planning. Many human behav-
iors are closely linked to pedestrian traffic, which in turn, affects passenger volumes
aboard public transport vehicles. Research studies in various countries have shown
that space syntax analysis is helpful in the forecasting of the presence of heterogene-
ous users, locations of top-selling office space, and real estate prices (Hillier, Hanson
1984; Enström, Netzell 2008).
Further research is needed on the components of geographic space in order to
better understand how the geometric network of urban connections affects society.
The use of an integrated approach in space syntax analysis would make it possible to
test the theory in a transport context.
Conclusions
Geography is a key part of transport research and helps to supplement other areas
of research in this discipline and in other disciplines. Models utilized to predict
the size and direction of traffic need to be tested much more thoroughly in order to
verify the results of simulation. The main challenge for researchers studying issues
associated with mobility is to better understand which qualitative factors create a po-
sitive or negative travel experience as well as to discover how mobility can be better
understood, especially in terms of future trends.
The issue of transport should not be viewed in absolute terms. Both quantita-
tive and qualitative research is needed to explain transport processes. The choice
of research method should depend on the problem, which should be well defined.
In some cases, a one-sided approach may be sufficient. However, the research litera-
ture suggests that quantitative methods are often preferred due to the methodological
problems associated with qualitative methods. This type of approach may not cap-
ture all the details of a research problem and may yield inaccurate forecasts that may
produce negative social and economic consequences. The starting point in transport
research varies depending on the research subject.
Geography, as the interdisciplinary science, is predisposed to take a holistic look
at urban transport issues with a focus on local characteristics of geographic space
and the most important of all reference points – the man. Research in the field of
geography involves complex analyses based on quantitative and qualitative methods.
The geographic approach to transport research focuses on the actual needs of pedes-
trians and riders when planning an urban transport system.
One research approach worth considering is advanced spatial analysis in support
of urban transport planning. Advanced pre-project studies based on space syntax
analysis and environmental psychology could constitute a good starting point for the
formulation of spatial and community–oriented recommendations that would provide
knowledge on the transport potential of a given section of a city. An interdisciplinary
approach to transport research could help reveal the long-term effects of the planning
138 Prace Geograficzne, zeszyt 130
process at the early stage of the planning process, which would help create solutions
based on actual community needs.
A comprehensive look at mobility based to some extent on empirical data could help
transport planners produce a well-functioning transport system. The contemporary
focus on mobility is an opportunity for geographers and may very well contribute to
a renaissance of the discipline with benefits for society and geography itself. In light
of the dearth of Polish research studies on the effects of so-called soft quality on trans-
port, especially in urban areas, most of the papers cited herein are the foreign ones.
While many detailed problems remain to be solved, alternative approaches to
forecasting research and traffic studies appear to be important steps towards a better
understanding of the nature of transport.
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Sebastian Książkiewicz
Jagiellonian University
Institut of Geography and Spatial Management
ul. Gronostajowa 7, 30-387 Kraków
e-mail: [email protected]
