Modal Verbs expressing certainty, probability or
possibility
In order of certainty:
WILL and WON'T are used to predict a future event or action which are seen
as certain. The truth or certainty of what is asserted is more or less taken for
granted.
I will see you later.
His latest book will be out next month.
WILL and WON'T are also used to express what we believe or guess to be true about
the present. They indicate an assumption based on our knowledge of people and
things, their routine, character and qualities.
Don't take the meat out of the oven. It won't be ready yet.
MUST is used to assert what we infer or conclude to be the most logical or rational
interpretation of a situation or event. As we do not have all the facts, it is less certain
than will. The negative form is CAN'T
He walked across the Sahara desert! You must be joking!.
She can't have a ten-year-old daughter! She's only twenty-five herself!
He can't be working right not. He went on vacation yesterday.
SHOULD expresses what may reasonably be expected to happen. Expectation means
believing that things are or will be as we want them to be.This use of SHOULD carries
the meaning of "if everything goes according to the plan, then something should
happen"; therefore it doesn't suggest negative or unpleasant ideas.
You have worked hard. You should pass the exam.
If the flight is on time, he should arrive in Jakarta early this morning.
MAY expresses the possibility that something will happen or is already happening.
We may go to Spain this year. We haven't decided yet.
A - "Where's Sandra?" B - "I don't know. She may be taking a bath".
MIGHT, like may, expresses possibility, but is more tentative and slightly less certain.
I might not be back in time for supper, so don't wait for me.
It might rain. Take your umbrella.
They might be eating dinner now. We should call them later.
CAN is used to say that something is possible and actually happens.
It can be expensive to keep a dog (it can be and sometimes is).
We also use CAN to indicate that there is a very real possibility of a future event
happening.
We can stay with Jessica in London (we will be able to stay)
COULD expresses the theoretical possibility of something happening. It is used in a
similar way to might.
It could be expensive to keep a dog (if we had one, it could or it may not be
expensive)
It could be raining when we arrive. We should bring our umbrellas.
It also suggests that something is less likely or that there is some doubt about it.
We could stay with Jessica in London (it's possible, if she's there)
Be careful with could. It also has the meaning of past ability such as in this example:
He could ride a bike when he was 5 years old.
Could not is not used to express a future possibility. The negative of could is MIGHT
NOT.
It might not be right.
He might not be working today.
Couldn't has a similar meaning to can't, but only slightly weaker. It expresses a near
impossiblity. Compare it to the previous example.
She couldn't have a ten-year old daughter! She's only twenty-five herself!
OUGHT TO, as well as SHOULD, + HAVE + PAST PARTICIPLE are used to talk about an
expectation that something happened, has happened, or will happen.
If the flight was on time, he should/ought to arrive in Paris early this morning.
The builders should/ought to finish by the end of the week.
Maria should be studying* right now.
*Should and ought to are also used to express advice. The meaning can be ambiguous
(unclear) as in this example.
Summary: Degrees of Possibility
We can express certainty with modals of possibility. If you are 100% certain, then no
modal is necessary, but if you’re almost certain then use the modal must. If you’re
less than 50% certain, then use may, might, or could.
When your teacher is absent, you might infer these possibilities:
She is sick. (100% certain)
She must be sick. (95% certain)
She should be there. (Expectation)
She may be sick. (less than 50% certain)
She might be sick. (less than 50% certain)
She could be sick. (less than 50% certain)
