Date Demand Forecast (n=3)Forecast (n=2)Forecast (n=5) n=2

1 37
2 60
3 85
Historical period

4 112
5 132
6 145
7 179
8 198
9 212
10 232
11
Future

12
13
Forecast (nForecast (nForecast (n=5)
Date Demand Forecast Alpha: 90%
1 37
2 60
3 85
4 112
5 132
6 145
7 179
8 198
9 212
10 232
11
12
13
Date Demand Forecast Level (a) Trend (b) Alpha: 30%
1 37 Beta: 40%
2 60
3 85
4 112
5 132
6 145
7 179
8 198
9 212
10 232
11
12
13
Date Demand Forecast Level (a) Trend (b) Alpha: 30%
1 37 Beta: 40%
2 60 Phi: 80%
3 85
4 112
5 132
6 145
7 179
8 198
9 212
10 232
11
12
13
Date Demand Forecast Level (a) Trend (b) Season (s) Alpha: 80%
1 14 Beta: 10%
2 10 Gamma: 40%
3 6
4 2
5 18
6 8
7 4
8 1
9 16
10 9
11 5
12 3
13 18
14 11
15 4
16 2
17 17
18 9
19 5
20 1
21
22
23
24
Date Demand Forecast Level (a) Trend (b) Season (s) Alpha: 80%
1 14 Beta: 10%
2 10 Gamma: 40%
3 6
4 2
5 18
6 8
7 4
8 1
9 16
10 9
11 5
12 3
13 18
14 11
15 4
16 2
17 17
18 9
19 5
20 1
21
22
23
24
 Number of Housing Starts
Quarter Sales (US$000,000) (y) x²
(0,000 units) (x)

1 1 2.0
2 3 3.0
3 2 2.4
4 3 3.1
5 4 3.7
6 6 4.5
7 5 4.0
8 4 3.5
∑x 28.00 ∑x² 0
∑y 26.200 ∑xy

b or slope
a or y-axis

Housing Starts
Options
Opt1 Opt 2 Opt 3 Opt 4
4.5 5.000 5.500 6.000

Forecast
Option Forecast
Opt 1 0.00
Opt 2 0.00
Opt 3 0.00
Opt 3 0.00
 xy

0.000
 Number of Housing Starts
Quarter Interest Rates (x1) Sales (y)
(0,000 units) (x2)

1 4.50 1 2.0
2 3.60 3 3.0
3 4.00 2 2.4
4 3.40 3 3.1
5 2.90 4 3.7
6 2.00 6 4.5
7 2.60 5 4.0
8 2.80 4 3.5
Totals 25.8 28 26.2
Forecast Options

Interest Rates
Opt1 Opt 2 Opt 3 Opt 4
2.3 2.6 3.0 3.5
Housing Starts
Opt1 Opt 2 Opt 3 Opt 4
5.0 4.8 4.2 3.5

Forecast
Option Sales Forecast
Opt 1
Opt 2
Opt 3
Opt 4
 Forecast Error
Period Forecast Demand Absolute Error
(FE)
1 300 299
2 300 305
3 300 312
4 300 310
5 300 294
6 300 315
7 300 306
8 300 286
9 300 292
10 300 285
11 300 311
12 300 285
Totals 3,600 3,600 0 0
MAPE
Absolute Percent
Error (APE)

0.00%
0.00%
 Period Demand Forecast Forecast Error Absolute Error Bias

1 1,000

2 1,100

3 1,200

4 1,050 1,100

5 900 1,117

6 1,200 1,050

7 900 1,050

8 800 1,000

9 1,250 967

10 1,100 983

Avg. 1,029 1,038.10 Avg Bias #DIV/0!

Total Bias 0.00

Avg MAPE #DIV/0!

1 299 300

2 305 300

3 312 300

4 310 300

5 294 300

6 315 300

7 306 300

8 286 300

9 292 300

10 285 300

11 311 300

12 285 300
MAE BIAS RMSE
Date Demand Forecast Level (a) Trend (b) Absolute Error Squared Error Alpha:
1 37 Beta:
2 60 RMSE
3 85 MAE
4 112
5 132
6 145
7 179
8 198
9 212
10 232
11
 30%
100%