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MS Lab-Epidemic Model

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39 views3 pages

MS Lab-Epidemic Model

Uploaded by

chanchal053btcse22
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EXPERIMENT -9

Aim :- Modelling and Simulation of the Epidemic Model of Influenza.

Description

Epidemic Model of Influenza


An epidemic model, is a continuous model that is used to simulate and understand the spread of
influenza (flu) within a population. The model focus on how individuals transition between different
states, such as susceptible, infected, and recovered, and how these transitions affect the spread of the
disease. For an influenza epidemic, a common way to model this is using a SIR model.

Basic SIR Model

The SIR model divides the population into three compartments:

1. 𝑺(𝒕) = Susceptible individuals (those who have not been infected yet and are at risk of catching
it.).
2. 𝑰(𝒕) = Infected individuals (those who are currently infected with the flu and can spread the
disease to others).
3. 𝑹(𝒕) = Recovered individuals (those who have recovered and are assumed to have immunity).
4. 𝑵: the total population size (assumed to be constant over time), so 𝑁 = 𝑆(𝑡) + 𝐼(𝑡) + 𝑅(𝑡)

The population is assumed to be closed (no births, deaths, or migration), and the disease is
transmitted via contact between susceptible and infected individuals. The model is governed by a
set of differential equations:

𝑑𝑆
= −𝛽𝑆𝐼,
𝑑𝑡

𝑑𝐼
= 𝛽𝑆𝐼 − 𝛾𝐼,
𝑑𝑡

𝑑𝑅
= 𝛾𝐼
𝑑𝑡

where

 𝛽 is the transmission rate (how likely an infected person is to transmit the disease to a
susceptible person).
 𝛾 is the recovery rate (the rate at which infected individuals recover).

Basic Reproduction Number 𝑹𝟎 :

The basic reproduction number, 𝑅 , is defined as the average number of secondary infections caused
by a single infected individual in a fully susceptible population. In the SIR model, it is given by:

𝑅 = ,
Where 𝑆 is the initial number of susceptible.

 If 𝑅 > 1, the disease will spread.


 If 𝑅 < 1, the disease will die out.
Commands and Calculations in ‘R’

Example 1.
Model the spread of an influenza epidemic in a population of N = 1,000 individuals. The population is
initially fully susceptible (i.e., no one is vaccinated or immune). A small fraction of the population, say
1%, is initially infected, and the rest are susceptible. You will assume that once individuals recover,
they gain immunity and cannot be infected again. Given the following parameters: 𝛽 = 0.001
(transmission rate), and 𝛾 = 0.1 (recovery rate, meaning the average infectious period is 10 days). The
goal is to simulate and visualize the progression of the disease over time, showing how the number of
susceptible, infected, and recovered individuals changes over time.

We have:
 Total population (N) = 1000
 Initial infected individuals (I₀) = 1% of the population
 Initial susceptible individuals (S₀) = 99% of the population
 Transmission rate (β) = 0.001
 Recovery rate (γ) = 0.1 (indicating that on average, an individual stays infected for 10 days, as
the reciprocal of 0.1 is 10)
Input
Ouput

Practice Questions

Ques. 1 Consider a small community where initially there is only one infective but there are 499
susceptible. The disease spreads at a rate of β=0.002 per day, and the average time an infected
individual remains infectious is 7 days, implying a recovery rate 𝛾 = 1/7. Generate the time-
dependent plot on the interval t = [0, 20].
(a) How many susceptible never get infected?
(b) What happens as time progresses if S(0) = 100?
(c) Suppose the transmission coefficient 𝛽 is doubled. How does this effect the maximum number of
infected individuals? Is this what you expect?

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