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 T H I R T E E N T H E D I T I O N

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
for MANAGEMENT

BARRY RENDER • RALPH M. STAIR, JR. • MICHAEL E. HANNA • TREVOR S. HALE

 T H I R T E E N T H E D I T I O N

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
for MANAGEMENT
BARRY RENDER
Charles Harwood Professor Emeritus of Management Science
Crummer Graduate School of Business, Rollins College

RALPH M. STAIR, JR.

Professor Emeritus of Information and Management Sciences,
Florida State University

MICHAEL E. HANNA
Professor of Decision Sciences,
University of Houston–Clear Lake

TREVOR S. HALE
Associate Professor of Management Sciences,
University of Houston–Downtown

New York, NY

A01_REND3161_13_AIE_FM.indd 1 02/11/16 10:04 PM

 To my wife and sons—BR

To Lila and Leslie—RMS

To Zoe and Gigi—MEH

To Valerie and Lauren—TSH

Vice President, Business Publishing: Donna Battista Managing Producer, Business: Ashley Santora
Director, Courseware Portfolio Management: Ashley Dodge Operations Specialist: Carol Melville
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Render, Barry, author. | Stair, Ralph M., author. | Hanna, Michael E.,
author. | Hale, Trevor S., author.
Title: Quantitative analysis for management / Barry Render, Charles Harwood
Professor of Management Science, Crummer Graduate School of Business,
Rollins College; Ralph M. Stair, Jr., Professor of Information and
Management Sciences, Florida State University; Michael E. Hanna, Professor
of Decision Sciences, University of Houston/Clear Lake; Trevor S. Hale,
Associate Professor of Management Sciences, University of Houston/Downtown.
Description: Thirteenth edition. | Boston : Pearson, 2016. | Includes
bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2016037461| ISBN 9780134543161 (hardcover) | ISBN
0134543165 (hardcover)
Subjects: LCSH: Management science—Case studies. | Operations research—Case
studies.
Classification: LCC T56 .R543 2016 | DDC 658.4/03—dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/ 2016037461
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

ISBN 10:   0-13-454316-5
ISBN 13: 978-0-13-454316-1

A01_REND3161_13_AIE_FM.indd 2 28/10/16 10:13 AM

 About the Authors

Barry Render is Professor Emeritus, the Charles Harwood Distinguished Professor of Operations
Management, Crummer Graduate School of Business, Rollins College, Winter Park, Florida. He
received his B.S. in Mathematics and Physics at Roosevelt University and his M.S. in Operations
Research and his Ph.D. in Quantitative Analysis at the University of Cincinnati. He previously
taught at George Washington University, the University of New Orleans, Boston University, and
George Mason University, where he held the Mason Foundation Professorship in Decision Sciences
and was Chair of the Decision Science Department. Dr. Render has also worked in the aerospace
industry for General Electric, McDonnell Douglas, and NASA.
Dr. Render has coauthored 10 textbooks published by Pearson, including Managerial
Decision Modeling with Spreadsheets, Operations Management, Principles of Operations
Management, Service Management, Introduction to Management Science, and Cases and
Readings in Management Science. More than 100 articles by Dr. Render on a variety of man-
agement topics have appeared in Decision Sciences, Production and Operations Management,
Interfaces, Information and Management, Journal of Management Information Systems, Socio-
Economic Planning Sciences, IIE Solutions, and Operations Management Review, among others.
Dr. Render has been honored as an AACSB Fellow and was named twice as a Senior
Fulbright Scholar. He was Vice President of the Decision Science Institute Southeast Region
and served as software review editor for Decision Line for six years and as Editor of the New
York Times Operations Management special issues for five years. From 1984 to 1993, Dr. Render
was President of Management Service Associates of Virginia, Inc., whose technology clients
included the FBI, the U.S. Navy, Fairfax County, Virginia, and C&P Telephone. He is currently
Consulting Editor to Financial Times Press.
Dr. Render has taught operations management courses at Rollins College for MBA and
Executive MBA programs. He has received that school’s Welsh Award as leading professor and
was selected by Roosevelt University as the 1996 recipient of the St. Claire Drake Award for
Outstanding Scholarship. In 2005, Dr. Render received the Rollins College MBA Student Award
for Best Overall Course, and in 2009 was named Professor of the Year by full-time MBA
students.

Ralph Stair is Professor Emeritus at Florida State University. He earned a B.S. in chemical engi-
neering from Purdue University and an M.B.A. from Tulane University. Under the guidance of Ken
Ramsing and Alan Eliason, he received a Ph.D. in operations management from the University of
Oregon. He has taught at the University of Oregon, the University of Washington, the University of
New Orleans, and Florida State University.
He has taught twice in Florida State University’s Study Abroad Program in London. Over
the years, his teaching has been concentrated in the areas of information systems, operations
research, and operations management.
Dr. Stair is a member of several academic organizations, including the Decision Sciences
Institute and INFORMS, and he regularly participates in national meetings. He has published
numerous articles and books, including Managerial Decision Modeling with Spreadsheets,
Introduction to Management Science, Cases and Readings in Management Science, Production
and Operations Management: A Self-Correction Approach, Fundamentals of Information
Systems, Principles of Information Systems, Introduction to Information Systems, Computers in

iii

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 iv   ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Today’s World, Principles of Data Processing, Learning to Live with Computers, Programming
in BASIC, Essentials of BASIC Programming, Essentials of FORTRAN Programming, and
Essentials of COBOL Programming. Dr. Stair divides his time between Florida and Colorado.
He enjoys skiing, biking, kayaking, and other outdoor activities.

Michael E. Hanna is Professor of Decision Sciences at the University of Houston–Clear Lake

(UHCL). He holds a B.A. in Economics, an M.S. in Mathematics, and a Ph.D. in Operations
Research from Texas Tech University. For more than 25 years, he has been teaching courses in sta-
tistics, management science, forecasting, and other quantitative methods. His dedication to teach-
ing has been recognized with the Beta Alpha Psi teaching award in 1995 and the Outstanding
Educator Award in 2006 from the Southwest Decision Sciences Institute (SWDSI).
Dr. Hanna has authored textbooks in management science and quantitative methods, has
published numerous articles and professional papers, and has served on the Editorial Advisory
Board of Computers and Operations Research. In 1996, the UHCL Chapter of Beta Gamma
Sigma presented him with the Outstanding Scholar Award.
Dr. Hanna is very active in the Decision Sciences Institute (DSI), having served on the
Innovative Education Committee, the Regional Advisory Committee, and the Nominating
Committee. He has served on the board of directors of DSI for two terms and also as regionally
elected vice president of DSI. For SWDSI, he has held several positions, including ­president,
and he received the SWDSI Distinguished Service Award in 1997. For overall service to the
profession and to the university, he received the UHCL President’s Distinguished Service
Award in 2001.

Trevor S. Hale is Associate Professor of Management Science at the University of Houston–

Downtown (UHD). He received a B.S. in Industrial Engineering from Penn State University,
an M.S. in Engineering Management from Northeastern University, and a Ph.D. in Operations
Research from Texas A&M University. He was previously on the faculty of both Ohio University–
Athens and Colorado State University–Pueblo.
Dr. Hale was honored three times as an Office of Naval Research Senior Faculty Fellow. He
spent the summers of 2009, 2011, and 2013 performing energy security/cyber security research
for the U.S. Navy at Naval Base Ventura County in Port Hueneme, California.
Dr. Hale has published dozens of articles in the areas of operations research and quantita-
tive analysis in journals such as the International Journal of Production Research, the European
Journal of Operational Research, Annals of Operations Research, the Journal of the Operational
Research Society, and the International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics
Management, among several others. He teaches quantitative analysis courses at the University
of Houston–Downtown. He is a senior member of both the Decision Sciences Institute and
INFORMS.

A01_REND3161_13_AIE_FM.indd 4 28/10/16 10:13 AM

 Brief Contents

CHAPTER 1 Introduction to Quantitative Analysis 1

CHAPTER 2 Probability Concepts and Applications 21

CHAPTER 3 Decision Analysis 63

CHAPTER 4 Regression Models 111

CHAPTER 5 Forecasting 147

CHAPTER 6 Inventory Control Models 185

CHAPTER 7 Linear Programming Models: Graphical and Computer Methods 237

CHAPTER 8 Linear Programming Applications 289

CHAPTER 9 Transportation, Assignment, and Network Models 319

CHAPTER 10 Integer Programming, Goal Programming, and Nonlinear
Programming 357

CHAPTER 11 Project Management 387

CHAPTER 12 Waiting Lines and Queuing Theory Models 427

CHAPTER 13 Simulation Modeling 461

CHAPTER 14 Markov Analysis 501

CHAPTER 15 Statistical Quality Control 529

ONLINE MODULES

1 Analytic Hierarchy Process M1-1

2 Dynamic Programming M2-1
3 Decision Theory and the Normal Distribution M3-1
4 Game Theory M4-1
5 Mathematical Tools: Determinants and Matrices M5-1
6 Calculus-Based Optimization M6-1
7 Linear Programming: The Simplex Method M7-1
8 Transportation, Assignment, and Network Algorithms M8-1

A01_REND3161_13_AIE_FM.indd 5 28/10/16 10:13 AM

 Contents

PREFACE xiii CHAPTER 2 Probability Concepts and

Applications 21
CHAPTER 1 Introduction to Quantitative Analysis 1
2.1 Fundamental Concepts 22
1.1 What Is Quantitative Analysis? 2
Two Basic Rules of Probability 22
1.2 Business Analytics 2
Types of Probability 22
1.3 The Quantitative Analysis Approach 3
Mutually Exclusive and Collectively Exhaustive
Defining the Problem 4 Events 23
Developing a Model 4 Unions and Intersections of Events 25
Acquiring Input Data 4 Probability Rules for Unions, Intersections,
Developing a Solution 5 and Conditional Probabilities 25
Testing the Solution 5 2.2 Revising Probabilities with Bayes’
Analyzing the Results and Sensitivity Theorem 27
Analysis 6 General Form of Bayes’ Theorem 28
Implementing the Results 6 2.3 Further Probability Revisions 29
The Quantitative Analysis Approach and Modeling 2.4 Random Variables 30
in the Real World 6 2.5 Probability Distributions 32
1.4 How to Develop a Quantitative Analysis Probability Distribution of a Discrete Random
Model 6 Variable 32
The Advantages of Mathematical Modeling 9 Expected Value of a Discrete Probability
Mathematical Models Categorized Distribution 32
by Risk 9 Variance of a Discrete Probability
1.5 The Role of Computers and Spreadsheet Distribution 33
Models in the Quantitative Analysis Probability Distribution of a Continuous
Approach 9 Random Variable 34
1.6 Possible Problems in the Quantitative 2.6 The Binomial Distribution 35
Analysis Approach 12
Solving Problems with the Binomial
Defining the Problem 12 Formula 36
Developing a Model 13 Solving Problems with Binomial
Acquiring Input Data 14 Tables 37
Developing a Solution 14 2.7 The Normal Distribution 38
Testing the Solution 14 Area Under the Normal Curve 40
Analyzing the Results 15 Using the Standard Normal Table 40
1.7 Implementation—Not Just the Final Haynes Construction Company Example 41
Step 15 The Empirical Rule 44
Lack of Commitment and Resistance to 2.8 The F Distribution 44
Change 16
2.9 The Exponential Distribution 46
Lack of Commitment by Quantitative
Analysts 16 Arnold’s Muffler Example 47
Summary 16 Glossary 16 Key Equations 17 2.10 The Poisson Distribution 48
Self-Test 17 Discussion Questions and Summary 50 Glossary 50 Key Equations 51
Problems 18 Case Study: Food and Solved Problems 52 Self-Test 54 Discussion
Beverages at Southwestern University Football Questions and Problems 55 Case Study:
Games 19 Bibliography 20 WTVX 61 Bibliography 61
Appendix 2.1: Derivation of Bayes’ Theorem 61

vi

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  CONTENTS    vii

4.7 Multiple Regression Analysis 126

CHAPTER 3 Decision Analysis 63
Evaluating the Multiple Regression
3.1 The Six Steps in Decision Making 63 Model 127
3.2 Types of Decision-Making Jenny Wilson Realty Example 128
Environments 65
4.8 Binary or Dummy Variables 129
3.3 Decision Making Under Uncertainty 65
4.9 Model Building 130
Optimistic 66
Stepwise Regression 131
Pessimistic 66
Multicollinearity 131
Criterion of Realism (Hurwicz Criterion) 67
4.10 Nonlinear Regression 131
Equally Likely (Laplace) 67
4.11 Cautions and Pitfalls in Regression
Minimax Regret 67
Analysis 134
3.4 Decision Making Under Risk 69 Summary 135 Glossary 135 Key
Expected Monetary Value 69 Equations 136 Solved Problems 137
Expected Value of Perfect Information 70 Self-Test 139 Discussion Questions and
Expected Opportunity Loss 71 Problems 139 Case Study: North–South
Airline 144 Bibliography 145
Sensitivity Analysis 72
Appendix 4.1: Formulas for Regression Calculations 145
A Minimization Example 73
3.5 Using Software for Payoff Table
Problems 75 CHAPTER 5 Forecasting 147
QM for Windows 75 5.1 Types of Forecasting Models 147
Excel QM 75 Qualitative Models 147
3.6 Decision Trees 77 Causal Models 148
Efficiency of Sample Information 82 Time-Series Models 149
Sensitivity Analysis 82 5.2 Components of a Time-Series 149
3.7 How Probability Values Are Estimated by 5.3 Measures of Forecast Accuracy 151
Bayesian Analysis 83 5.4 Forecasting Models—Random Variations
Calculating Revised Probabilities 83 Only 154
Potential Problem in Using Survey Results 85 Moving Averages 154
3.8 Utility Theory 86 Weighted Moving Averages 154
Measuring Utility and Constructing a Utility Exponential Smoothing 156
Curve 86 Using Software for Forecasting Time
Utility as a Decision-Making Criterion 88 Series 158
Summary 91 Glossary 91 Key Equations 92 5.5 Forecasting Models—Trend and Random
Solved Problems 92 Self-Test 97 Discussion Variations 160
Questions and Problems 98 Case Study: Starting Exponential Smoothing with Trend 160
Right Corporation 107 Case Study: Toledo
Trend Projections 163
Leather Company 107 Case Study: Blake
Electronics 108 Bibliography 110 5.6 Adjusting for Seasonal Variations 164
Seasonal Indices 165
CHAPTER 4 Regression Models 111 Calculating Seasonal Indices with
4.1 Scatter Diagrams 112 No Trend 165
4.2 Simple Linear Regression 113 Calculating Seasonal Indices with
Trend 166
4.3 Measuring the Fit of the Regression
Model 114 5.7 Forecasting Models—Trend, Seasonal,
and Random Variations 167
Coefficient of Determination 116
The Decomposition Method 167
Correlation Coefficient 116
Software for Decomposition 170
4.4 Assumptions of the Regression Model 117
Using Regression with Trend and Seasonal
Estimating the Variance 119
Components 170
4.5 Testing the Model for Significance 119 5.8 Monitoring and Controlling
Triple A Construction Example 121 Forecasts 172
The Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) Table 122 Adaptive Smoothing 174
Triple A Construction ANOVA Example 122 Summary 174 Glossary 174 Key
4.6 Using Computer Software for Equations 175 Solved Problems 176
Regression 122 Self-Test 177 Discussion Questions
Excel 2016 122 and Problems 178 Case Study:
Forecasting Attendance at SWU Football
Excel QM 123 Games 182 Case Study: Forecasting Monthly
QM for Windows 125 Sales 183 Bibliography 184

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 viii   CONTENTS

7.2 Formulating LP Problems 239

CHAPTER 6 Inventory Control Models 185
Flair Furniture Company 240
6.1 Importance of Inventory Control 186
7.3 Graphical Solution to an LP
Decoupling Function 186
Problem 241
Storing Resources 187
Graphical Representation of Constraints 241
Irregular Supply and Demand 187
Isoprofit Line Solution Method 245
Quantity Discounts 187
Corner Point Solution Method 248
Avoiding Stockouts and Shortages 187
Slack and Surplus 250
6.2 Inventory Decisions 187 7.4 Solving Flair Furniture’s LP Problem
6.3 Economic Order Quantity: Determining Using QM for Windows, Excel 2016, and
How Much to Order 189 Excel QM 251
Inventory Costs in the EOQ Situation 189 Using QM for Windows 251
Finding the EOQ 191 Using Excel’s Solver Command to Solve LP
Sumco Pump Company Example 192 Problems 252
Purchase Cost of Inventory Items 193 Using Excel QM 255
Sensitivity Analysis with the EOQ Model 194 7.5 Solving Minimization Problems 257
6.4 Reorder Point: Determining When to Holiday Meal Turkey Ranch 257
Order 194 7.6 Four Special Cases in LP 261
6.5 EOQ Without the Instantaneous Receipt No Feasible Solution 261
Assumption 196 Unboundedness 261
Annual Carrying Cost for Production Run
Redundancy 262
Model 196
Alternate Optimal Solutions 263
Annual Setup Cost or Annual Ordering
Cost 197 7.7 Sensitivity Analysis 264
Determining the Optimal Production High Note Sound Company 265
Quantity 197 Changes in the Objective Function
Brown Manufacturing Example 198 Coefficient 266
6.6 Quantity Discount Models 200 QM for Windows and Changes in Objective
Function Coefficients 266
Brass Department Store Example 202
Excel Solver and Changes in Objective Function
6.7 Use of Safety Stock 203 Coefficients 267
6.8 Single-Period Inventory Models 209 Changes in the Technological Coefficients 268
Marginal Analysis with Discrete
Changes in the Resources or Right-Hand-Side
Distributions 210
Values 269
Café du Donut Example 210
QM for Windows and Changes in Right-Hand-
Marginal Analysis with the Normal Side Values 270
Distribution 212
Excel Solver and Changes in Right-Hand-Side
Newspaper Example 212 Values 270
6.9 ABC Analysis 214 Summary 272 Glossary 272 Solved
6.10 Dependent Demand: The Case for Problems 273 Self-Test 277 Discussion
Material Requirements Planning 214 Questions and Problems 278 Case Study:
Material Structure Tree 215 Mexicana Wire Winding, Inc. 286
Bibliography 288
Gross and Net Material Requirements Plans 216
Two or More End Products 218
6.11 Just-In-Time Inventory Control 219 CHAPTER 8 Linear Programming Applications 289
6.12 Enterprise Resource Planning 220 8.1 Marketing Applications 289
Summary 221 Glossary 221 Key Media Selection 289
Equations 222 Solved Problems 223 Marketing Research 291
Self-Test 225 Discussion Questions and
Problems 226 Case Study: Martin-Pullin 8.2 Manufacturing Applications 293
Bicycle Corporation 234 Bibliography 235 Production Mix 293
Appendix 6.1: Inventory Control with QM for Production Scheduling 295
Windows 235 8.3 Employee Scheduling Applications 299
Labor Planning 299
8.4 Financial Applications 300
CHAPTER 7 Linear Programming Models:
Graphical and Computer Methods 237 Portfolio Selection 300
7.1 Requirements of a Linear Programming Truck Loading Problem 303
Problem 238 8.5 Ingredient Blending Applications 305

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  CONTENTS    ix

Diet Problems 305 Ranking Goals with Priority Levels 371

Ingredient Mix and Blending Problems 306 Goal Programming with Weighted Goals 371
8.6 Other Linear Programming 10.4 Nonlinear Programming 372
Applications 308 Nonlinear Objective Function and Linear
Summary 310 Self-Test 310 Constraints 373
Problems 311 Case Study: Cable & Both Nonlinear Objective Function and Nonlinear
Moore 318 Bibliography 318 Constraints 373
Linear Objective Function with Nonlinear
CHAPTER 9 Transportation, Assignment, Constraints 374
and Network Models 319 Summary 375 Glossary 375 Solved
9.1 The Transportation Problem 320 Problems 376 Self-Test 378 Discussion
Linear Program for the Transportation Questions and Problems 379 Case Study:
Example 320 Schank Marketing Research 384 Case Study:
Oakton River Bridge 385 Bibliography 385
Solving Transportation Problems Using
Computer Software 321
A General LP Model for Transportation CHAPTER 11 Project Management 387
Problems 322
11.1 PERT/CPM 389
Facility Location Analysis 323
General Foundry Example of PERT/CPM 389
9.2 The Assignment Problem 325 Drawing the PERT/CPM Network 390
Linear Program for Assignment Example 325
Activity Times 391
9.3 The Transshipment Problem 327 How to Find the Critical Path 392
Linear Program for Transshipment
Probability of Project Completion 395
Example 327
What PERT Was Able to Provide 398
9.4 Maximal-Flow Problem 330
Using Excel QM for the General Foundry
Example 330
Example 398
9.5 Shortest-Route Problem 332 Sensitivity Analysis and Project
9.6 Minimal-Spanning Tree Problem 334 Management 399
Summary 337 Glossary 338 Solved 11.2 PERT/Cost 400
Problems 338 Self-Test 340 Discussion
Planning and Scheduling Project Costs:
Questions and Problems 341 Case Study:
Budgeting Process 400
Andrew–Carter, Inc. 352 Case Study:
Northeastern Airlines 353 Case Study: Monitoring and Controlling Project
Southwestern University Traffic Problems 354 Costs 403
Bibliography 355 11.3 Project Crashing 405
Appendix 9.1: Using QM for Windows 355 General Foundry Example 406
Project Crashing with Linear Programming 407
CHAPTER 10 Integer Programming, Goal 11.4 Other Topics in Project Management 410
Programming, and Nonlinear Subprojects 410
Programming 357 Milestones 410
10.1 Integer Programming 358 Resource Leveling 410
Harrison Electric Company Example of Integer Software 410
Programming 358 Summary 410 Glossary 410 Key
Using Software to Solve the Harrison Integer Equations 411 Solved Problems 412
Programming Problem 360 Self-Test 414 Discussion Questions and
Mixed-Integer Programming Problem Problems 415 Case Study: Southwestern
Example 360 University Stadium Construction 422
Case Study: Family Planning Research Center of
10.2 Modeling with 0–1 (Binary) Variables 363 Nigeria 423 Bibliography 424
Capital Budgeting Example 364 Appendix 11.1: Project Management with QM for
Limiting the Number of Alternatives Windows 424
Selected 365
Dependent Selections 365
CHAPTER 12 Waiting Lines and Queuing Theory
Fixed-Charge Problem Example 366
Models 427
Financial Investment Example 367
12.1 Waiting Line Costs 428
10.3 Goal Programming 368
Three Rivers Shipping Company Example 428
Example of Goal Programming: Harrison Electric
Company Revisited 369 12.2 Characteristics of a Queuing System 429
Extension to Equally Important Multiple Arrival Characteristics 429
Goals 370 Waiting Line Characteristics 430

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 x   CONTENTS

Service Facility Characteristics 430 Role of Computers in Simulation 485

Identifying Models Using Kendall Notation 431 Summary 486 Glossary 486 Solved
12.3 Single-Channel Queuing Model with Problems 487 Self-Test 489 Discussion
Poisson Arrivals and Exponential Service Questions and Problems 490 Case Study:
Times (M/M /1) 434 Alabama Airlines 496 Case Study: Statewide
Development Corporation 497 Case Study:
Assumptions of the Model 434 FB Badpoore Aerospace 498
Queuing Equations 434 Bibliography 500
Arnold’s Muffler Shop Case 435
Enhancing the Queuing Environment 438 CHAPTER 14 Markov Analysis 501
12.4 Multichannel Queuing Model with 14.1 States and State Probabilities 502
Poisson Arrivals and Exponential Service
Times (M/M/m) 439 The Vector of State Probabilities for Grocery
Store Example 503
Equations for the Multichannel Queuing
Model 439 14.2 Matrix of Transition Probabilities 504
Arnold’s Muffler Shop Revisited 440 Transition Probabilities for Grocery Store
Example 504
12.5 Constant Service Time Model
(M/D/1) 442 14.3 Predicting Future Market Shares 505
Equations for the Constant Service Time 14.4 Markov Analysis of Machine
Model 442 Operations 506
Garcia-Golding Recycling, Inc. 443 14.5 Equilibrium Conditions 507
12.6 Finite Population Model (M/M/1 with 14.6 Absorbing States and the Fundamental
Finite Source) 443 Matrix: Accounts Receivable
Application 510
Equations for the Finite Population
Model 444 Summary 514 Glossary 514 Key
Equations 514 Solved Problems 515
Department of Commerce Example 444 Self-Test 518 Discussion Questions and
12.7 Some General Operating Characteristic Problems 519 Case Study: Rentall Trucks 523
Relationships 445 Bibliography 525
12.8 More Complex Queuing Models and the Appendix 14.1: Markov Analysis with QM for
Use of Simulation 446 Windows 525
Summary 446 Glossary 447 Key Appendix 14.2: Markov Analysis with Excel 526
Equations 447 Solved Problems 449
Self-Test 451 Discussion Questions and
Problems 452 Case Study: New England
Foundry 457 Case Study: Winter Park
CHAPTER 15 Statistical Quality Control 529
Hotel 459 Bibliography 459 15.1 Defining Quality and TQM 529
Appendix 12.1: Using QM for Windows 460 15.2 Statistical Process Control 531
Variability in the Process 531
CHAPTER 13 Simulation Modeling 461 15.3 Control Charts for Variables 532
13.1 Advantages and Disadvantages of The Central Limit Theorem 533
Simulation 462 Setting x- -Chart Limits 534
13.2 Monte Carlo Simulation 463 Setting Range Chart Limits 536
Harry’s Auto Tire Example 464 15.4 Control Charts for Attributes 537
Using QM for Windows for Simulation 468 p-Charts 537
Simulation with Excel Spreadsheets 469 c-Charts 539
13.3 Simulation and Inventory Analysis 471 Summary 541 Glossary 541 Key
Simkin’s Hardware Store 472 Equations 541 Solved Problems 542
Analyzing Simkin’s Inventory Costs 475 Self-Test 543 Discussion Questions and
Problems 543 Bibliography 546
13.4 Simulation of a Queuing Problem 476
Appendix 15.1: Using QM for Windows for SPC 547
Port of New Orleans 476
Using Excel to Simulate the Port of New Orleans
Queuing Problem 478 APPENDICES 549
13.5 Simulation Model for a Maintenance APPENDIX A Areas Under the Standard Normal
Policy 479
Curve 550
Three Hills Power Company 479
Cost Analysis of the Simulation 481 APPENDIX B Binomial Probabilities 552
13.6 Other Simulation Issues 484
Two Other Types of Simulation Models 484 APPENDIX C Values of e − L for Use in the Poisson
Verification and Validation 485 Distribution 557

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 CONTENTS    xi

APPENDIX D F Distribution Values 558 Using Expected Monetary Value to Make a

Decision M3-4
APPENDIX E Using POM-QM for Windows 560 M3.2 Expected Value of Perfect Information
and the Normal Distribution M3-5
APPENDIX F Using Excel QM and Excel Add-Ins 563 Opportunity Loss Function M3-5
Expected Opportunity Loss M3-5
APPENDIX G Solutions to Selected Problems 564 Summary M3-7 Glossary M3-7 Key
Equations M3-7 Solved Problems M3-7
APPENDIX H Solutions to Self-Tests 568 Self-Test M3-8 Discussion Questions and
Problems M3-9 Bibliography M3-10
INDEX 571 Appendix M3.1: Derivation of the Break-Even
Point M3-10
ONLINE MODULES Appendix M3.2: Unit Normal Loss Integral M3-11
MODULE 1 Analytic Hierarchy Process M1-1
M1.1 Multifactor Evaluation Process M1-2 MODULE 4 Game Theory M4-1
M1.2 Analytic Hierarchy Process M1-3 M4.1 Language of Games M4-2
Judy Grim’s Computer Decision M1-3 M4.2 The Minimax Criterion M4-2
Using Pairwise Comparisons M1-5 M4.3 Pure Strategy Games M4-3
Evaluations for Hardware M1-5 M4.4 Mixed Strategy Games M4-4
Determining the Consistency Ratio M1-6 M4.5 Dominance M4-6
Evaluations for the Other Factors M1-7 Summary M4-7 Glossary M4-7
Determining Factor Weights M1-8 Solved Problems M4-14 Self-Test M4-8
Discussion Questions and Problems M4-9
Overall Ranking M1-9 Bibliography M4-10
Using the Computer to Solve Analytic Hierarchy
Process Problems M1-9
MODULE 5 Mathematical Tools: Determinants
M1.3 Comparison of Multifactor Evaluation and Matrices M5-1
and Analytic Hierarchy Processes M1-9
M5.1 Matrices and Matrix Operations M5-1
Summary M1-10 Glossary M1-10
Key Equations M1-10 Solved Problems M1-11 Matrix Addition and Subtraction M5-2
Self-Test M1-12 Discussion Questions and Matrix Multiplication M5-2
Problems M1-12 Bibliography M1-14 Matrix Notation for Systems of Equations M5-5
Appendix M1.1: Using Excel for the Analytic Hierarchy Matrix Transpose M5-5
Process M1-14
M5.2 Determinants, Cofactors, and
Adjoints M5-5
Determinants M5-5
MODULE 2 Dynamic Programming M2-1
Matrix of Cofactors and Adjoint M5-7
M2.1 Shortest-Route Problem Solved Using
Dynamic Programming M2-2 M5.3 Finding the Inverse of a Matrix M5-9
M2.2 Dynamic Programming Summary M5-10 Glossary M5-10
Terminology M2-5 Key Equations M5-10 Self-Test M5-11
Discussion Questions and Problems M5-11
M2.3 Dynamic Programming Notation M2-7 Bibliography M5-12
M2.4 Knapsack Problem M2-8 Appendix M5.1: Using Excel for Matrix
Types of Knapsack Problems M2-8 Calculations M5-13
Roller’s Air Transport Service Problem M2-8
Summary M2-13 Glossary M2-14 MODULE 6 Calculus-Based Optimization M6-1
Key Equations M2-14 Solved Problem M2-14
M6.1 Slope of a Straight Line M6-1
Self-Test M2-16 Discussion Questions
and Problems M2-17 Case Study: United M6.2 Slope of a Nonlinear Function M6-2
Trucking M2-19 Bibliography M2-20 M6.3 Some Common Derivatives M6-5
Second Derivatives M6-6
M6.4 Maximum and Minimum M6-6
MODULE 3 Decision Theory and the Normal
M6.5 Applications M6-8
Distribution M3-1
Economic Order Quantity M6-8
M3.1 Break-Even Analysis and the Normal
Distribution M3-1 Total Revenue M6-8
Summary M6-9 Glossary M6-10
Barclay Brothers Company’s New Product Key Equations M6-10 Solved Problems M6-10
Decision M3-1 Self-Test M6-11 Discussion Questions and
Probability Distribution of Demand M3-2 Problems M6-11 Bibliography M6-12

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 xii   CONTENTS

Changes in the Objective Function

MODULE 7 Linear Programming: The Simplex Coefficients M7-28
Method M7-1 Changes in Resources or RHS Values M7-30
M7.1 How to Set Up the Initial Simplex
Solution M7-2 M7.7 The Dual M7-32
Converting the Constraints to Equations M7-2 Dual Formulation Procedures M7-33
Finding an Initial Solution Solving the Dual of the High Note Sound
Algebraically M7-3 Company Problem M7-33
The First Simplex Tableau M7-4 M7.8 Karmarkar’s Algorithm M7-34
M7.2 Simplex Solution Procedures M7-7 Summary M7-35 Glossary M7-35
Key Equations M7-36 Solved Problems M7-36
The Second Simplex Tableau M7-8 Self-Test M7-40 Discussion Questions and
Interpreting the Second Tableau M7-11 Problems M7-41 Bibliography M7-50
The Third Simplex Tableau M7-12
Review of Procedures for Solving LP
Maximization Problems M7-14 MODULE 8 Transportation, Assignment,
M7.3 Surplus and Artificial Variables M7-15 and Network Algorithms M8-1
Surplus Variables M7-15 M8.1 The Transportation Algorithm M8-1
Artificial Variables M7-15 Developing an Initial Solution: Northwest Corner
Surplus and Artificial Variables in the Objective Rule M8-2
Function M7-16 Stepping-Stone Method: Finding a Least-Cost
M7.4 Solving Minimization Problems M7-16 Solution M8-3
Special Situations with the Transportation
The Muddy River Chemical Corporation Algorithm M8-9
Example M7-16
Unbalanced Transportation Problems M8-9
Graphical Analysis M7-17
Degeneracy in Transportation Problems M8-10
Converting the Constraints and Objective
Function M7-18 More Than One Optimal Solution M8-12
Rules of the Simplex Method for Minimization Maximization Transportation Problems M8-13
Problems M7-18 Unacceptable or Prohibited Routes M8-13
First Simplex Tableau for the Muddy River Other Transportation Methods M8-13
Chemical Corporation Problem M7-19 M8.2 The Assignment Algorithm M8-13
Developing a Second Tableau M7-20 The Hungarian Method (Flood’s Technique) 14
Developing a Third Tableau M7-22 Making the Final Assignment M8-18
Fourth Tableau for the Muddy River Chemical Special Situations with the Assignment
Corporation Problem M7-23 Algorithm M8-18
Review of Procedures for Solving LP Unbalanced Assignment Problems M8-18
Minimization Problems M7-24
Maximization Assignment Problems M8-19
M7.5 Special Cases M7-25
M8.3 Maximal-Flow Problem M8-20
Infeasibility M7-25
Maximal-Flow Technique M8-20
Unbounded Solutions M7-25
M8.4 Shortest-Route Problem M8-24
Degeneracy M7-26
Shortest-Route Technique M8-24
More Than One Optimal Solution M7-27
Summary M8-26 Glossary M8-26
M7.6 Sensitivity Analysis with the Simplex Solved Problems M8-26 Self-Test M8-33
Tableau M7-27 Discussion Questions and Problems M8-33
High Note Sound Company Revisited M7-27 Bibliography M8-43

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 Preface

Overview
Welcome to the thirteenth edition of Quantitative Analysis for Management. Our goal is to pro-
vide undergraduate and graduate students with a genuine foundation in business analytics, quan-
titative methods, and management science. In doing so, we owe thanks to the hundreds of users
and scores of reviewers who have provided invaluable counsel and pedagogical insight for more
than 30 years.
To help students connect how the techniques presented in this book apply in the real world,
computer-based applications and examples are a major focus of this edition. Mathematical
­models, with all the necessary assumptions, are presented in a clear and “plain-English” manner.
The ensuing solution procedures are then applied to example problems alongside step-by-step
­“how-to” instructions. We have found this method of presentation to be very effective, and stu-
dents are very appreciative of this approach. In places where the mathematical computations are
intricate, the details are presented in such a manner that the instructor can omit these sections
without interrupting the flow of material. The use of computer software enables the instructor to
focus on the managerial problem and spend less time on the details of the algorithms. Computer
output is provided for many examples throughout the book.
The only mathematical prerequisite for this textbook is algebra. One chapter on probability
and another on regression analysis provide introductory coverage on these topics. We employ
standard notation, terminology, and equations throughout the book. Careful explanation is pro-
vided for the mathematical notation and equations that are used.

Special Features
Many features have been popular in previous editions of this textbook, and they have been
updated and expanded in this edition. They include the following:

●● Modeling in the Real World boxes demonstrate the application of the quantitative analysis
approach to every technique discussed in the book. Three new ones have been added.
●● Procedure boxes summarize the more complex quantitative techniques, presenting them as a
series of easily understandable steps.
●● Margin notes highlight the important topics in the text.
●● History boxes provide interesting asides related to the development of techniques and the
­people who originated them.
●● QA in Action boxes illustrate how real organizations have used quantitative analysis to solve
problems. Several new QA in Action boxes have been added.
●● Solved Problems, included at the end of each chapter, serve as models for students in solving
their own homework problems.
●● Discussion Questions are presented at the end of each chapter to test the student’s under-
standing of the concepts covered and definitions provided in the chapter.

xiii

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 xiv   PREFACE

●● Problems included in every chapter are applications-oriented and test the student’s ability
to solve exam-type problems. They are graded by level of difficulty: introductory (one
bullet), moderate (two bullets), and challenging (three bullets). Twenty-six new problems
have been added.
●● Internet Homework Problems provide additional problems for students to work. They are
available on the Companion Website.
●● Self-Tests allow students to test their knowledge of important terms and concepts in prepara-
tion for quizzes and examinations.
●● Case Studies, at the end of most chapters, provide additional challenging managerial
applications.
●● Glossaries, at the end of each chapter, define important terms.
●● Key Equations, provided at the end of each chapter, list the equations presented in that
chapter.
●● End-of-chapter bibliographies provide a current selection of more advanced books and
articles.
●● The software POM-QM for Windows uses the full capabilities of Windows to solve quantita-
tive analysis problems.
●● Excel QM and Excel 2016 are used to solve problems throughout the book.
●● Data files with Excel spreadsheets and POM-QM for Windows files containing all the
­examples in the textbook are available for students to download from the Companion
Website. Instructors can download these plus additional files containing computer solutions
to the relevant end-of-chapter problems from the Instructor Resource Center Website.
●● Online modules provide additional coverage of topics in quantitative analysis.
●● The Companion Website, at www.pearsonhighered.com/render, provides the online modules,
additional problems, cases, and other material for every chapter.

Significant Changes to the Thirteenth Edition

In the thirteenth edition, we have introduced Excel 2016 in all of the chapters. Updated screen-
shots are i­ ntegrated in the appropriate sections so that students can easily learn how to use Excel
2016 for the calculations. The Excel QM add-in is used with Excel 2016, allowing students with
limited Excel experience to easily perform the necessary calculations. This also allows students
to improve their Excel skills as they see the formulas automatically written in Excel QM.
From the Companion Website, students can access files for all of the examples used in the
textbook in Excel 2016, QM for Windows, and Excel QM. Other files with all of the end-of-
chapter problems involving these software tools are available to the instructors.
Business analytics, one of the hottest topics in the business world, makes extensive use of
the models in this book. A discussion of the business analytics categories is provided, and the
relevant management science techniques are placed into the appropriate category.
Examples and problems have been updated, and many new ones have been added. New
screenshots are provided for almost all of the examples in the book. A brief summary of the
changes in each chapter of the thirteenth edition is presented here.

Chapter 1 Introduction to Quantitative Analysis. The section on business analytics has been
updated, and a new end-of-chapter problem has been added.

Chapter 2 Probability Concepts and Applications. The Modeling in the Real World box has been
updated. New screenshots of Excel 2016 have been added throughout.

Chapter 3 Decision Analysis. A new QA in Action box has been added. New screenshots of
Excel 2016 have been added throughout. A new case study has been added.

Chapter 4 Regression Models. New screenshots of Excel 2016 have been added throughout. A
new end-of-chapter problem has been added.

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  PREFACE    xv

Chapter 5 Forecasting. A new QA in Action box has been added. New screenshots of Excel 2016
have been added throughout. Two new end-of-chapter problems have been added.

Chapter 6 Inventory Control Models. A new QA in Action box has been added. New screenshots
of Excel 2016 have been added throughout. Two new end-of-chapter problems have been added.

Chapter 7 Linear Programming Models: Graphical and Computer Methods. The Learning
Objectives have been modified slightly. Screenshots have been updated to Excel 2016.

Chapter 8 Linear Programming Applications. Two new problems have been added to the Internet
Homework Problems. Excel 2016 screenshots have been incorporated throughout.

Chapter 9 Transportation, Assignment, and Network Models. Two new problems have been
added to the Internet Homework Problems. Excel 2016 screenshots have been incorporated
throughout.

Chapter 10 Integer Programming, Goal Programming, and Nonlinear Programming. Two new
problems have been added to the Internet Homework Problems. Excel 2016 screenshots have
been incorporated throughout.

Chapter 11 Project Management. Four new end-of-chapter problems and a new Modeling in the
Real World box have been added.

Chapter 12 Waiting Lines and Queuing Theory Models. Four new end-of-chapter problems
have been added.

Chapter 13 Simulation Modeling. Two new end-of-chapter problems have been added.

Chapter 14 Markov Analysis. Two new end-of-chapter problems have been added.

Chapter 15 Statistical Quality Control. Two new end-of-chapter problems have been added.
Excel 2016 screenshots have been updated throughout.

Modules 1–8 The only significant change to the modules is the update to Excel 2016 throughout.

Online Modules
To streamline the book, eight topics are contained in modules available on the Companion
Website for the book.
1. Analytic Hierarchy Process
2. Dynamic Programming
3. Decision Theory and the Normal Distribution
4. Game Theory
5. Mathematical Tools: Determinants and Matrices
6. Calculus-Based Optimization
7. Linear Programming: The Simplex Method
8. Transportation, Assignment, and Network Algorithms

Software
Excel 2016 Excel 2016 instructions and screen captures are provided, throughout the book.
Instructions for activating the Solver and Analysis ToolPak add-ins in Excel 2016 are provided
in an appendix. The use of Excel is more prevalent in this edition of the book than in previous
editions.

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 xvi   PREFACE

Excel QM Using the Excel QM add-in that is available on the Companion Website makes
the use of Excel even easier. Students with limited Excel experience can use this and learn
from the formulas that are automatically provided by Excel QM. This is used in many of the
chapters.

POM-QM for Windows This software, developed by Professor Howard Weiss, is available to
students at the Companion Website. This is very user-friendly and has proven to be a very
popular software tool for users of this textbook. Modules are available for every major prob-
lem type presented in the textbook. At press time, only version 4.0 of POM-QM for Windows
was available. Updates for version 5.0 will be released on the Companion Website as they
become available.

Companion Website
The Companion Website, located at www.pearsonhighered.com/render, contains a variety of
materials to help students master the material in this course. These include the following:

Modules There are eight modules containing additional material that the instructor may choose
to include in the course. Students can download these from the Companion Website.

Files for Examples in Excel, Excel QM, and POM-QM for Windows Students can download the
files that were used for examples throughout the book. This helps them become familiar with
the software, and it helps them understand the input and formulas necessary for working the
examples.

Internet Homework Problems In addition to the end-of-chapter problems in the textbook, there
are additional problems that instructors may assign. These are available for download at the
Companion Website.

Internet Case Studies Additional case studies are available for most chapters.

POM-QM for Windows Developed by Howard Weiss, this very user-friendly software can be
used to solve most of the homework problems in the text.

Excel QM This Excel add-in will automatically create worksheets for solving problems. This is
very helpful for instructors who choose to use Excel in their classes but who may have students
with limited Excel experience. Students can learn by examining the formulas that have been
created and by seeing the inputs that are automatically generated for using the Solver add-in for
linear programming.

Instructor Resources
●● Instructor Resource Center: The Instructor Resource Center contains the electronic files
for the test bank, PowerPoint slides, the Solutions Manual, and data files for both Excel and
POM-QM for Windows for all relevant examples and end-of-chapter problems (www
.pearsonhighered.com/render).
●● Register, Redeem, Login: At www.pearsonhighered.com/irc, instructors can access a variety
of print, media, and presentation resources that are available with this text in downloadable,
digital format. For most texts, resources are also available for course management platforms
such as Blackboard, WebCT, and Course Compass.
●● Need help? Our dedicated technical support team is ready to assist instructors with questions
about the media supplements that accompany this text. Visit support.pearson.com/getsupport
for answers to frequently asked questions and toll-free user support phone numbers. The
supplements are available to adopting instructors. Detailed descriptions are provided in the
Instructor Resource Center.

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  PREFACE    xvii

Instructor’s Solutions Manual The Instructor’s Solutions Manual, updated by the authors, is
available for download from the Instructor Resource Center. Solutions to all Internet Homework
Problems and Internet Case Studies are also included in the manual.

PowerPoint Presentation An extensive set of PowerPoint slides is available for download from
the Instructor Resource Center.

Test Bank The updated test bank is available for download from the Instructor Resource Center.

TestGen The computerized TestGen package allows instructors to customize, save, and generate
classroom tests. The test program permits instructors to edit, add, or delete questions from the
test bank; edit existing graphics and create new graphics; analyze test results; and organize a
database of test and student results. This software allows instructors to benefit from the
extensive flexibility and ease of use. It provides many options for organizing and displaying
tests, along with search and sort features. The software and the test banks can be downloaded
from the Instructor Resource Center.

Acknowledgments
We gratefully thank the users of previous editions and the reviewers who provided valuable
suggestions and ideas for this edition. Your feedback is valuable in our efforts for continuous
improvement. The continued success of Quantitative Analysis for Management is a direct result
of instructor and student feedback, which is truly appreciated.
The authors are indebted to many people who have made important contributions to this
project. Special thanks go to Professors Faizul Huq, F. Bruce Simmons III, Khala Chand Seal,
Victor E. Sower, Michael Ballot, Curtis P. McLaughlin, and Zbigniew H. Przanyski for their
contributions to the excellent cases included in this edition.
We thank Howard Weiss for providing Excel QM and POM-QM for Windows, two of the
most outstanding packages in the field of quantitative methods. We would also like to thank the
reviewers who have helped to make this textbook the most widely used one in the field of quan-
titative analysis:

Stephen Achtenhagen, San Jose University Arun Khanal, Nobel College

M. Jill Austin, Middle Tennessee State University Kenneth D. Lawrence, New Jersey Institute of Technology
Raju Balakrishnan, University of Michigan–Dearborn Jooh Lee, Rowan College
Hooshang Beheshti, Radford University Richard D. Legault, University of Massachusetts–Dartmouth
Jason Bergner, University of Nevada Douglas Lonnstrom, Siena College
Bruce K. Blaylock, Radford University Daniel McNamara, University of St. Thomas
Rodney L. Carlson, Tennessee Technological University Peter Miller, University of Windsor
Edward Chu, California State University, Dominguez Hills Ralph Miller, California State Polytechnic University
John Cozzolino, Pace University–Pleasantville Shahriar Mostashari, Campbell University
Ozgun C. Demirag, Penn State–Erie David Murphy, Boston College
Shad Dowlatshahi, University of Missouri–Kansas City Robert C. Myers, University of Louisville
Ike Ehie, Kansas State University Barin Nag, Towson State University
Richard Ehrhardt, University of North Carolina–Greensboro Nizam S. Najd, St. Gregory’s University
Sean Eom, Southeast Missouri State University Harvey Nye, Central State University
Ephrem Eyob, Virginia State University Alan D. Olinsky, Bryant College
Mira Ezvan, Lindenwood University Savas Ozatalay, Widener University
Wade Ferguson, Western Kentucky University Young Park, California University of Pennsylvania
Robert Fiore, Springfield College Yusheng Peng, Brooklyn College
Frank G. Forst, Loyola University of Chicago Dane K. Peterson, Missouri State University
Stephen H. Goodman, University of Central Florida Sanjeev Phukan, Bemidji State University
Irwin Greenberg, George Mason University Ranga Ramasesh, Texas Christian University
Nicholas G. Hall, Ohio State University Bonnie Robeson, Johns Hopkins University
Robert R. Hill, University of Houston–Clear Lake Grover Rodich, Portland State University
Bharat Jain, Towson University Vijay Shah, West Virginia University–Parkersburg
Vassilios Karavas, Nomura International L. Wayne Shell, Nicholls State University

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 xviii   PREFACE

Thomas Sloan, University of Massachusetts–Lowell Chris Vertullo, Marist College

Richard Slovacek, North Central College James Vigen, California State University, Bakersfield
Alan D. Smith, Robert Morris University Larry Weinstein, Wright State University
John Swearingen, Bryant College Fred E. Williams, University of Michigan–Flint
Jack Taylor, Portland State University Mela Wyeth, Charleston Southern University
Andrew Tiger, Union University Oliver Yu, San Jose State University

We are very grateful to all the people at Pearson who worked so hard to make this book
a success. These include Donna Battista, Jeff Holcomb, Ashley Santora, Neeraj Bhalla,
Vamanan Namboodiri, and Dan Tylman. We are also grateful to Angela Urquhart and Andrea
Archer at Thistle Hill Publishing Services. Thank you all!

Barry Render
[email protected]

Ralph Stair

Michael Hanna
[email protected]

Trevor S. Hale
[email protected]

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 CHAPTER

1
Introduction to Quantitative Analysis

LEARNING OBJECTIVES
After completing this chapter, students will be able to:

1.1 Describe the quantitative analysis approach 1.4 Prepare a quantitative analysis model.
and understand how to apply it to a real 1.5 Use computers and spreadsheet models to
situation. perform quantitative analysis.
1.2 Describe the three categories of business 1.6 Recognize possible problems in using
analytics. quantitative analysis.
1.3 Describe the use of modeling in quantitative 1.7 Recognize implementation concerns of
analysis. quantitative analysis.

P
eople have been using mathematical tools to help solve problems for thousands of years;
however, the formal study and application of quantitative techniques to practical decision
making is largely a product of the twentieth century. The techniques we study in this book
have been applied successfully to an increasingly wide variety of complex problems in business,
government, health care, education, and many other areas. Many such successful uses are dis-
cussed throughout this book.
It isn’t enough, though, just to know the mathematics of how a particular quantitative tech-
nique works; you must also be familiar with the limitations, assumptions, and specific applica-
bility of the technique. The successful use of quantitative techniques usually results in a solution
that is timely, accurate, flexible, economical, reliable, and easy to understand and use.
In this and other chapters, there are QA (Quantitative Analysis) in Action boxes that provide
success stories on the applications of management science. They show how organizations have
used quantitative techniques to make better decisions, operate more efficiently, and generate
more profits. For example, Taco Bell has reported saving over $150 million with better fore-
casting of demand and better scheduling of employees. NBC television increased advertising
revenue by over $200 million by using a model to help develop sales plans for advertisers. Be-
fore it merged with United Airlines, Continental Airlines saved over $40 million a year by using
mathematical models to quickly recover from disruptions caused by weather delays and other
factors. These are but a few of the many companies discussed in QA in Action boxes throughout
this book.

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 2   CHAPTER 1 • Introduction to Quantitative Analysis

To see other examples of how companies use quantitative analysis or operations research
methods to operate better and more efficiently, go to the website www.scienceofbetter.org. The
success stories presented there are categorized by industry, functional area, and benefit. These
success stories illustrate how operations research is truly the “science of better.”

1.1 What Is Quantitative Analysis?

Quantitative analysis uses a Quantitative analysis is the scientific approach to managerial decision making. This field of
scientific approach to decision study has several different names, including quantitative analysis, management science, and
making. operations research. These terms are used interchangeably in this book. Also, many of the quan-
titative analysis methods presented in this book are used extensively in business analytics.
Whim, emotions, and guesswork are not part of the quantitative analysis approach. The ap-
proach starts with data. Like raw material for a factory, these data are manipulated or processed
into information that is valuable to people making decisions. This processing and manipulating
of raw data into meaningful information is the heart of quantitative analysis. Computers have
been instrumental in the increasing use of quantitative analysis.
In solving a problem, managers must consider both qualitative and quantitative factors. For
example, we might consider several different investment alternatives, including certificates of
deposit at a bank, investments in the stock market, and an investment in real estate. We can use
quantitative analysis to determine how much our investment will be worth in the future when de-
posited at a bank at a given interest rate for a certain number of years. Quantitative analysis can
also be used in computing financial ratios from the balance sheets for several companies whose
stock we are considering. Some real estate companies have developed computer programs that
use quantitative analysis to analyze cash flows and rates of return for investment property.
Both qualitative and quantitative In addition to quantitative analysis, qualitative factors should be considered. The weather,
factors must be considered. state and federal legislation, new technological breakthroughs, the outcome of an election, and
so on may all be factors that are difficult to quantify.
Because of the importance of qualitative factors, the role of quantitative analysis in the deci-
sion-making process can vary. When there is a lack of qualitative factors and when the problem,
model, and input data remain the same, the results of quantitative analysis can automate the
decision-making process. For example, some companies use quantitative inventory models to
determine automatically when to order additional new materials. In most cases, however, quanti-
tative analysis will be an aid to the decision-making process. The results of quantitative analysis
will be combined with other (qualitative) information in making decisions.
Quantitative analysis has been particularly important in many areas of management. The
field of production management, which evolved into production/operations management (POM)
as society became more service oriented, uses quantitative analysis extensively. While POM
focuses on the internal operations of a company, the field of supply chain management takes a
more complete view of the business and considers the entire process of obtaining materials from
suppliers, using the materials to develop products, and distributing these products to the final
consumers. Supply chain management makes extensive use of many management science mod-
els. Another area of management that could not exist without the quantitative analysis methods
presented in this book, and perhaps the hottest discipline in business today, is business analytics.

1.2 Business Analytics

Business analytics is a data-driven approach to decision making that allows companies to make
better decisions. The study of business analytics involves the use of large amounts of data, which
means that information technology related to the management of the data is very important. Sta-
tistical and quantitative methods are used to analyze the data and provide useful information to
the decision maker.
Business analytics is often broken into three categories: descriptive, predictive, and prescrip-
tive. Descriptive analytics involves the study and consolidation of historical data for a business
and an industry. It helps a company measure how it has performed in the past and how it is per-
forming now. Predictive analytics is aimed at forecasting future outcomes based on patterns in
the past data. Statistical and mathematical models are used extensively for this purpose. Prescrip-
tive analytics involves the use of optimization methods to provide new and better ways to operate

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  1.3 The Quantitative Analysis Approach   3

TABLE 1.1
BUSINESS ANALYTICS
Business Analytics and CATEGORY QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS TECHNIQUE
Quantitative Analysis
Models Descriptive analytics Statistical measures such as means and standard deviations (Chapter 2)
Statistical quality control (Chapter 15)
Predictive analytics Decision analysis and decision trees (Chapter 3)
Regression models (Chapter 4)
Forecasting (Chapter 5)
Project scheduling (Chapter 11)
Waiting line models (Chapter 12)
Simulation (Chapter 13)
Markov analysis (Chapter 14)
Prescriptive analytics Inventory models such as the economic order quantity (Chapter 6)
Linear programming (Chapters 7, 8)
Transportation and assignment models (Chapter 9)
Integer programming, goal programming, and nonlinear programming
(Chapter 10)
Network models (Chapter 9)

based on specific business objectives. The optimization models presented in this book are very
important to prescriptive analytics. While there are only three business analytics categories, many
business decisions are made based on information obtained from two or three of these categories.
Many of the quantitative analysis techniques presented in the chapters of this book are used
extensively in business analytics. Table 1.1 highlights the three categories of business analytics,
and it places many of the topics and chapters in this book in the most relevant category. Keep in
mind that some topics (and certainly some chapters with multiple concepts and models) could
The three categories of business possibly be placed in a different category. Some of the material in this book could overlap two or
analytics are descriptive, even three of these categories. Nevertheless, all of these quantitative analysis techniques are very
predictive, and prescriptive. important tools in business analytics.

1.3 The Quantitative Analysis Approach

Defining the problem can be the The quantitative analysis approach consists of defining a problem, developing a model, acquir-
most important step. ing input data, developing a solution, testing the solution, analyzing the results, and implement-
ing the results (see Figure 1.1). One step does not have to be finished completely before the
Concentrate on only a few next is started; in most cases, one or more of these steps will be modified to some extent before
problems. the final results are implemented. This would cause all of the subsequent steps to be changed.
In some cases, testing the solution might reveal that the model or the input data are not correct.
This would mean that all steps that follow defining the problem would need to be modified.

HISTORY The Origin of Quantitative Analysis

Q uantitative analysis has been in existence since the begin-

ning of recorded history, but it was Frederick Winslow Taylor
personnel or consultants to apply the principles of scien-
tific management to the challenges and opportunities of the
twenty-first century.
who in the late 1800s and early 1900s pioneered the appli- The origin of many of the techniques discussed in this book
cation of the principles of the scientific approach to manage- can be traced to individuals and organizations that have applied
ment. Dubbed the “Father of Industrial Engineering,” Taylor is the principles of scientific management first developed by Taylor;
credited with introducing many new scientific and quantitative they are discussed in History boxes throughout the book. Trivia:
techniques. These new developments were so successful that Taylor was also a world-class golfer and tennis player, finishing
many companies still use his techniques in managerial deci- just off the medal stand in golf at the 1900 Olympics and winning
sion making and planning today. Indeed, many organizations the inaugural men’s doubles title (with Clarence Clark) at the U.S.
employ a staff of operations research or management science Open Tennis Championships.

M01_REND3161_13_AIE_C01.indd 3 27/10/16 3:20 PM

 4   CHAPTER 1 • Introduction to Quantitative Analysis

FIGURE 1.1 Defining the Problem

The Quantitative Analysis The first step in the quantitative approach is to develop a clear, concise statement of the prob-
Approach lem. This statement will give direction and meaning to the following steps.
In many cases, defining the problem is the most important and the most difficult step. It is
Defining
the Problem essential to go beyond the symptoms of the problem and identify the true causes. One problem
may be related to other problems; solving one problem without regard to other, related problems
can make the entire situation worse. Thus, it is important to analyze how the solution to one
Developing problem affects other problems or the situation in general.
a Model It is likely that an organization will have several problems. However, a quantitative analysis
group usually cannot deal with all of an organization’s problems at one time. Thus, it is usually
necessary to concentrate on only a few problems. For most companies, this means selecting
Acquiring
Input Data
those problems whose solutions will result in the greatest increase in profits or reduction in costs
for the company. The importance of selecting the right problems to solve cannot be overempha-
sized. Experience has shown that bad problem definition is a major reason for failure of manage-
Developing ment science or operations research groups to serve their organizations well.
a Solution When the problem is difficult to quantify, it may be necessary to develop specific, measur-
able objectives. A problem might be inadequate health care delivery in a hospital. The objectives
might be to increase the number of beds, reduce the average number of days a patient spends
Testing the
in the hospital, increase the physician-to-patient ratio, and so on. When objectives are used,
Solution
however, the real problem should be kept in mind. It is important to avoid setting specific and
measurable objectives that may not solve the real problem.
Analyzing
the Results Developing a Model
Once we select the problem to be analyzed, the next step is to develop a model. Simply stated, a
model is a representation (usually mathematical) of a situation.
Implementing
Even though you might not have been aware of it, you have been using models most of your
the Results
life. You may have developed models about people’s behavior. Your model might be that friend-
ship is based on reciprocity, an exchange of favors. If you need a favor such as a small loan, your
model would suggest that you ask a good friend.
Of course, there are many other types of models. Architects sometimes make a physical
model of a building that they will construct. Engineers develop scale models of chemical plants,
called pilot plants. A schematic model is a picture, drawing, or chart of reality. Automobiles,
lawn mowers, gears, fans, smartphones, and numerous other devices have schematic models
The types of models include
(drawings and pictures) that reveal how these devices work. What sets quantitative analysis apart
physical, scale, schematic, and
from other techniques is that the models that are used are mathematical. A mathematical model
mathematical models.
is a set of mathematical relationships. In most cases, these relationships are expressed in equa-
tions and inequalities, as they are in a spreadsheet model that computes sums, averages, or stan-
dard deviations.
Although there is considerable flexibility in the development of models, most of the models
presented in this book contain one or more variables and parameters. A variable, as the name
implies, is a measurable quantity that may vary or is subject to change. Variables can be control-
lable or uncontrollable. A controllable variable is also called a decision variable. An example
would be how many inventory items to order. A parameter is a measurable quantity that is in-
herent in the problem. The cost of placing an order for more inventory items is an example of a
parameter. In most cases, variables are unknown quantities, while parameters are known quanti-
ties. Hence, in our example, how much inventory to order is a variable that needs to be decided,
whereas how much it will cost to place the order is a parameter that is already known. All mod-
els should be developed carefully. They should be solvable, realistic, and easy to understand and
modify, and the required input data should be obtainable. The model developer has to be careful
to include the appropriate amount of detail to be solvable yet realistic.

Acquiring Input Data

Once we have developed a model, we must obtain the data that are used in the model (input
data). Obtaining accurate data for the model is essential; even if the model is a perfect represen-
Garbage in, garbage out means tation of reality, improper data will result in misleading results. This situation is called garbage
that improper data will result in in, garbage out. For a larger problem, collecting accurate data can be one of the most difficult
misleading results. steps in performing quantitative analysis.

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  1.3 The Quantitative Analysis Approach   5

IN ACTION Operations Research and Oil Spills

O perations researchers and decision scientists have been in-

vestigating oil spill response and alleviation strategies since long
to minimize the long-term impacts of a particular disaster after
the immediate situation has stabilized.
Many quantitative tools have helped in areas of risk analysis,
before the BP oil spill disaster of 2010 in the Gulf of Mexico. A insurance, logistical preparation and supply management, evacu-
four-phase classification system has emerged for disaster re- ation planning, and development of communication systems. Re-
sponse research: mitigation, preparedness, response, and recov- cent research has shown that while many strides and discoveries
ery. Mitigation means reducing the probability that a disaster will have been made, much research is still needed. Certainly each
occur and implementing robust, forward-thinking strategies to re- of the four disaster response areas could benefit from additional
duce the effects of a disaster that does occur. Preparedness is any research, but recovery seems to be of particular concern and per-
and all organization efforts that happen in advance of a disaster. haps the most promising for future research.
Response is the location, allocation, and overall coordination of Source: Based on N. Altay and W. Green, “OR/MS Research in Disaster Op-
resources and procedures during the disaster that are aimed at erations Management,” European Journal of Operational Research 175, 1
preserving life and property. Recovery is the set of actions taken (2006): 475–493, © Trevor S. Hale.

There are a number of sources that can be used in collecting data. In some cases, company
reports and documents can be used to obtain the necessary data. Another source is interviews
with employees or other persons related to the firm. These individuals can sometimes provide
excellent information, and their experience and judgment can be invaluable. A production super-
visor, for example, might be able to tell you with a great degree of accuracy the amount of time
it takes to produce a particular product. Sampling and direct measurement provide other sources
of data for the model. You may need to know how many pounds of raw material are used in
producing a new photochemical product. This information can be obtained by going to the plant
and actually measuring with scales the amount of raw material that is being used. In other cases,
statistical sampling procedures can be used to obtain data.

Developing a Solution
Developing a solution involves manipulating the model to arrive at the best (optimal) solution
to the problem. In some cases, this requires that an equation be solved for the best decision. In
other cases, you can use a trial-and-error method, trying various approaches and picking the
one that results in the best decision. For some problems, you may wish to try all possible values
for the variables in the model to arrive at the best decision. This is called complete enumera-
tion. This book also shows you how to solve very difficult and complex problems by repeat-
ing a few simple steps until you find the best solution. A series of steps or procedures that are
repeated is called an algorithm, named after Algorismus (derived from Muhammad ibn Musa
al-Khwarizmi), a Persian mathematician of the ninth century.
The input data and model The accuracy of a solution depends on the accuracy of the input data and the model. If the
determine the accuracy of the input data are accurate to only two significant digits, then the results can be accurate to only two
solution. significant digits. For example, the results of dividing 2.6 by 1.4 should be 1.9, not 1.857142857.

Testing the Solution

Testing the data and model Before a solution can be analyzed and implemented, it needs to be tested completely. Because
is done before the results are the solution depends on the input data and the model, both require testing.
analyzed. Testing the input data and the model includes determining the accuracy and completeness of
the data used by the model. Inaccurate data will lead to an inaccurate solution. There are several
ways to test input data. One method of testing the data is to collect additional data from a differ-
ent source. If the original data were collected using interviews, perhaps some additional data can
be collected by direct measurement or sampling. These additional data can then be compared
with the original data, and statistical tests can be employed to determine whether there are dif-
ferences between the original data and the additional data. If there are significant differences,
more effort is required to obtain accurate input data. If the data are accurate but the results are
inconsistent with the problem, the model may not be appropriate. The model can be checked to
make sure that it is logical and represents the real situation.

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 6   CHAPTER 1 • Introduction to Quantitative Analysis

Although most of the quantitative techniques discussed in this book have been computer-
ized, you will probably be required to solve a number of problems by hand. To help detect both
logical and computational mistakes, you should check the results to make sure that they are con-
sistent with the structure of the problem. For example, (1.96)(301.7) is close to (2)(300), which
is equal to 600. If your computations are significantly different from 600, you know you have
made a mistake.

Analyzing the Results and Sensitivity Analysis

Analyzing the results starts with determining the implications of the solution. In most cases, a
solution to a problem will result in some kind of action or change in the way an organization is
operating. The implications of these actions or changes must be determined and analyzed before
the results are implemented.
Because a model is only an approximation of reality, the sensitivity of the solution to
Sensitivity analysis determines changes in the model and input data is a very important part of analyzing the results. This type
how the solution will change with of analysis is called sensitivity analysis or postoptimality analysis. It determines how much the
a different model or input data. solution will change if there are changes in the model or the input data. When the solution is
sensitive to changes in the input data and the model specification, additional testing should be
performed to make sure that the model and input data are accurate and valid. If the model or data
are wrong, the solution could be wrong, resulting in financial losses or reduced profits.
The importance of sensitivity analysis cannot be overemphasized. Because input data may
not always be accurate or model assumptions may not be completely appropriate, sensitivity
analysis can become an important part of the quantitative analysis approach. Most of the chap-
ters in this book cover the use of sensitivity analysis as part of the decision-making and problem-
solving process.

Implementing the Results

The final step is to implement the results. This is the process of incorporating the solution into
the company’s operations. This can be much more difficult than you would imagine. Even if the
solution is optimal and will result in millions of dollars in additional profits, if managers resist
the new solution, all of the efforts of the analysis are of no value. Experience has shown that a
large number of quantitative analysis teams have failed in their efforts because they have failed
to implement a good, workable solution properly.
After the solution has been implemented, it should be closely monitored. Over time, there
may be numerous changes that call for modifications of the original solution. A changing econ-
omy, fluctuating demand, and model enhancements requested by managers and decision makers
are only a few examples of changes that might require the analysis to be modified.

The Quantitative Analysis Approach and Modeling in the Real World

The quantitative analysis approach is used extensively in the real world. These steps, first seen in
Figure 1.1 and described in this section, are the building blocks of any successful use of quantita-
tive analysis. As seen in our first Modeling in the Real World box, the steps of the quantitative
analysis approach can be used to help a large company such as CSX plan for critical scheduling
needs now and for decades into the future. Throughout this book, you will see how the steps of
the quantitative analysis approach are used to help countries and companies of all sizes save mil-
lions of dollars, plan for the future, increase revenues, and provide higher-quality products and
services. The Modeling in the Real World boxes will demonstrate to you the power and impor-
tance of quantitative analysis in solving real problems for real organizations. Using the steps of
quantitative analysis, however, does not guarantee success. These steps must be applied carefully.

1.4 How to Develop a Quantitative Analysis Model

Developing a model is an important part of the quantitative analysis approach. Let’s see how we
can use the following mathematical model, which represents profit:

Profit = Revenue - Expenses

Expenses include fixed and In many cases, we can express revenue as the selling price per unit multiplied times the num-
variable costs. ber of units sold. Expenses can often be determined by summing fixed cost and variable cost.

M01_REND3161_13_AIE_C01.indd 6 27/10/16 3:20 PM

Another random document with
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he out of the pale of the great law of justice and reason? If it were
said, that he had no right to appropriate to himself miles of forest,
for a hunting ground, he might reply, that he had as good a right as
an English nobleman has to appropriate to himself a vast space, for
parks and fish ponds; and, indeed, a better right, by the law of
nature, for every other Indian could enjoy as much land as himself,
while the nobleman must see hundreds around him in abject
poverty.
But it has been said, that the Creator could not have designed this
vast and beautiful region to be exclusively inhabited by a few
thousands of savage hunters; and, therefore, if the old world should
become crowded with inhabitants, a portion of them would have a
right to remove to America, and occupy a portion of it, as a part of
the great inheritance of the human race. The Indians would
consequently be bound to allow them a sufficient space; and if the
numbers of both parties should so increase as to make hunting
impracticable, the Indians ought to become cultivators.
If this theory were admitted as sound, the practical application of
it would not be easy. The absolute necessity of emigration from the
old world has not, perhaps, occurred, and yet this case must be
made out, to justify an occupancy of a part of the Indian territory,
without the consent of the natives. Immense tracts of uncultivated
land exist in Europe, and even in England. Why would it not be as
just for a company of settlers to fix their dwellings in a nobleman’s
park, cut down his trees, and plant their corn, as to do the same on
the lands of an Indian? If it were alleged, that the Indian had more
land than he needed, the same might be said, perhaps, of the
nobleman. At any rate, it might be asked, who was the proper
judge, how much land an Indian needed?
But, looking at the actual state of things, at the settlement of this
country, the necessities of the Pilgrims were sufficiently great, to
make it the duty of the Indians to receive them hospitably, and allow
them a portion of their lands. Where the country was deserted by
the natives, the colonists might, undoubtedly, take possession. But
wherever the Indians actually occupied the territory, even for the
purposes of hunting, they were, clearly, the proprietors; and though
it was doubtless their duty to cede to the Europeans a sufficient
portion for their maintenance, yet they could not justly be forced to
perform this duty. The settlers were bound to be satisfied with a
sufficient amount of land for their comfortable support by agriculture
and by the arts of civilized life. But the Indians retained an inviolable
right to so much territory as they deemed necessary for their own
use. Their title was beyond dispute. No power on earth could
lawfully dispossess them.
We may conclude, then, that the Indians were the lawful
proprietors of all the lands which they occupied. They were
independent nations, and had a right to regulate their governments,
and use their territory, as they pleased, while they respected the
rights of others. They consequently could not be lawfully subjected
to the sway of any other nation, without their own consent. No
charters from popes or kings could give a right to take possession of
the Indian territory. The Indians were nevertheless under an
obligation to receive distressed Europeans, who sought their coasts,
and to sell them land. They were, too, bound by the great law of
God, which requires men to aspire after moral and physical
perfection. This law obliged them to become civilized, and to adopt
those modes of life which would enable their territory to support the
greatest possible number of inhabitants. Hence arose another
obligation to admit Europeans among them, who were capable of
instructing and elevating them to the rank of civilized, educated,
Christian nations. The duties of the settlers were, to make a
reasonable compensation for the land ceded; to respect the rights of
the natives; to treat them with uniform kindness; to teach them the
arts of civilization; and, above all, to inculcate the principles and the
practice of the Christian religion.
It is pleasing to observe, in the history of the New-England
colonists, that the duties of both parties were, to so great an extent,
fulfilled. The Indians, in most cases, received the white men with
generous hospitality; they sold them land, on easy terms; many
tribes remained their firm friends; and some of the natives became
converts to the Christian faith. The colonists, on the other hand,
purchased their lands from the Indians, for such a compensation as
satisfied the natives, and was a fair equivalent at that time.[119] They
treated the Indians, generally, with justice, and they made many
zealous efforts for their conversion. That some of the proceedings of
the colonists towards the Indians were not strictly equitable nor
kind, must be admitted. Our fathers were too prone to view them
rather as heathens than as men. They recurred too often to the
Jewish history, for imaginary analogies; and drew unauthorized
inferences from the conduct of the Jews towards idolatrous nations,
whom God, the sovereign ruler, commanded them to destroy. In
their wars with the natives, the colonists were sometimes
unjustifiably severe; but it is due to their memory to say, that those
wars were commenced by the savages themselves, from jealousy of
the advancing power of the whites, rather than from the experience
of actual injury. We must consider, too, that when the struggle came,
it was, on the part of the whites, a contest for life and death, with
an enemy vastly more numerous, and whose modes of warfare were
treacherous, cruel, and terrific in the highest degree to the scattered
and feeble settlements.[120]
A candid reader of our early colonial history, while he observes
many things which he deeply regrets and condemns, must
nevertheless admit, that the conduct of our fathers towards the
Indians was, in general, worthy of their high character, as wise and
pious, yet imperfect men, who were placed in circumstances which
severely tried their principles, and amid difficulties, which required
the utmost wisdom and courage. When we consider the diabolical
cruelty with which the Spaniards treated the unhappy natives of
South America, we must turn, with, emotions of grateful pleasure, to
the history of our own land, and rejoice, that our fathers were men,
for whom their descendants have little occasion to blush, or to
apologize.
The kings of England, whatever language they employed in their
patents and charters, treated the Indians, in practice, as separate
nations, and entered into treaties with different tribes. The
government of the United States have done the same, and, except in
one humiliating instance, have pursued towards the natives a just
and humane policy. The treaties so formed have been pronounced,
by the highest legal authority in this country, to be binding on our
government, and the rights of the Indians, as distinct nations,
though under the protection of the United States, have thus been
judicially recognised.[121]
That the Indian tribes in New-England melted away, must awaken
melancholy feelings. But it cannot be maintained, that their
disappearance was occasioned mainly by the treatment or the
neglect which they experienced from the colonial governments.
These governments could not wholly prevent unprincipled individuals
from inflicting wrongs on the natives, which tended to exasperate
them. They could not entirely exclude the introduction of ardent
spirits, the most deadly and active agent in the destruction of the
aborigines. Though they sent missionaries, and printed Bibles, and
erected schools, for the religious and literary instruction of the
natives, they could not reclaim any considerable proportion of them
from their savage habits. As the whites increased, the game
disappeared, and as the Indians did not alter their habits, they
became destitute, and their numbers diminished. They saw, at
length, the alternative, of utter ruin or the expulsion of the English,
and they determined to attempt the latter. But it was too late. They
fought, with desperation, and filled the land with frightful distress
and bloodshed. But the superior skill of the whites prevailed, and the
death of the formidable Philip terminated forever the power of the
Indians in New-England. We may admit, that the savages were
impelled by some motives of patriotism and love of liberty. We may
respect and pity them. But surely we cannot lament that they failed;
that their exterminating warfare did not accomplish its purpose; that
the tomahawk did not, after butchering the last father in the field,
smite the last infant in the cradle; that the flames did not lay in
ashes every dwelling of civilized man and every temple of God; and
that barbarism did not resume its dominion over the hills and vallies
of New-England. No man, if he could do it by waving some potent
wand, would bid all this teeming population, this wide spread
happiness, this wonderful triumph of civilization, freedom and
religion, disappear, like a gorgeous vision, and restore this whole
land to the condition in which the Pilgrims found it, or even place it
in the situation in which it would have been, at this moment, if no
civilized man had landed on these shores. Human happiness has
been immeasurably increased by the settlement of this continent.
Christianity has extended her conquests; and no thoughtful man can
doubt, that the landing of the Pilgrims, and the subsequent history
of this country, have been controlled by Him, who accomplishes his
great designs of mercy to the universe, by means which often
involve individual suffering, and sometimes produce national ruin.
Let us feel our obligation to treat the feeble remnants of the tribes
who yet remain with generous kindness. Let us recompense them
for whatever wrongs their fathers may have received. Let us, now
that they are weak, and we are strong, be scrupulously attentive to
their rights, and seek to promote their highest temporal and eternal
welfare. Without the friendship of their fathers, at the beginning,
ours must have perished. Let the children of the white man prove
their gratitude, by saving from ruin the helpless descendants of the
savage.
 CHAPTER VII.

Mr. Williams proceeds to Seekonk—crosses the river, and founds

the town of Providence.

About the middle of January, 1635–6,[122] Mr. Williams left Salem,

in secrecy and haste. It is not certain, that any one accompanied
him, though a number of persons were with him a short time
afterwards. He proceeded to the south, towards the Narraganset
Bay. The weather was very severe, and his sufferings were great. In
a letter written thirty-five years afterwards, he said: “I was sorely
tossed for one fourteen weeks, in a bitter winter season, not
knowing what bread or bed did mean;” and he added, that he still
felt the effects of his exposure to the severity of the weather.[123]
He appears to have visited Ousamequin, the sachem of
Pokanoket, who resided at Mount Hope, near the present town of
Bristol (R. I.) From him he obtained a grant of land now included in
the town of Seekonk, in Massachusetts, on the east bank of
Pawtucket (now Seekonk) river.[124] This territory was within the
limits of the Plymouth colony, but Mr. Williams recognised the
Indians only as the proprietors, and bought a title from the sachem.
Ousamequin doubtless granted his request with pleasure, as a return
for the services and presents which he had formerly received from
Mr. Williams. If, as we have supposed, the exile was obliged to visit
the sachem, and make these arrangements, the journey, on foot,
increased that exposure to the severity of the elements, of which he
complains.
 He was, moreover, unprovided with a dwelling. Mr. Cotton (in his
Bloody Tenet washed, p. 8.) says, “that some of his friends went to
the place appointed by himself beforehand, to make provision of
housing, and other necessaries for him against his coming.” This
statement however, must be incorrect. Mr. Williams’ departure from
Salem was sudden and unexpected; and his assertion, just quoted,
that he did not know “what bread or bed did mean,” for fourteen
weeks, must be understood as excluding the idea of such a
preparation as Mr. Cotton mentions. Mr. Williams, too, says, “I first
pitched, and began to build and plant at Seekonk.”[125] He had no
house, it would seem, till he built one.
For the means of subsistence, he must have been dependent on
the Indians. At that season, hunting and fishing were impracticable,
if he had possessed the proper instruments. The earth was covered
with snow, and he had not even the poor resource of roots. He may
refer to his situation at this time, in the following lines, alluding to
the Indians:
“God’s Providence is rich to his,
Let none distrustful be;
In wilderness, in great distress,
These ravens have fed me.”[126]

The spot, in Seekonk, where he reared his habitation, is believed,

on good authority, to have been at Manton’s Neck, near the cove, a
short distance above the Central Bridge.[127]
Here he probably hoped, that he might live in peace. He was soon
joined by several friends, if they did not at first accompany him. His
wife and children were still at Salem.
But Seekonk was not to be his home. In a short time, to use his
own language, “I received a letter from my ancient friend, Mr.
Winslow, the Governor of Plymouth, professing his own and others’
love and respect to me, yet lovingly advising me, since I was fallen
into the edge of their bounds, and they were loath to displease the
Bay, to remove to the other side of the water, and there, he said, I
had the country free before me, and might be as free as themselves,
and we should be loving neighbors together.”
This advice was apparently prudent and friendly, prompted by a
desire of peace, and by a kind regard to Mr. Williams. It does not
seem to deserve the harsh comments which have sometimes been
made on it. Mr. Williams himself does not speak of it in a tone of
reproach. He immediately resolved to comply with the advice. He
accordingly embarked in a canoe, with five others,[128] and
proceeded down the stream. As they approached the little cove,
near Tockwotten, now India Point, they were saluted, by a company
of Indians, with the friendly interrogation, “What cheer?” a common
English phrase, which they had learned from the colonists.[129] At this
spot, they probably went on shore, but they did not long remain
there.[130] They passed round India Point and Fox Point, and
proceeded up the river on the west side of the peninsula, to a spot
near the mouth of the Moshassuck river. Tradition reports, that Mr.
Williams landed near a spring, which remains till this day.[131] At this
spot, the settlement of Rhode-Island commenced:
“O call it holy ground,
The soil where first they trod,
They have left unstained, what there they found,
Freedom to worship God.”[132]

To the town here founded, Mr. Williams, with his habitual piety,
and in grateful remembrance of “God’s merciful Providence to him in
his distress,” gave the name of Providence.
There has been much discussion respecting the precise period at
which this memorable event occurred. There is a perplexing
confusion in the statements of different writers. We shall be
excused, if we examine the subject with some minuteness.
Callender, in his Century Sermon, (p. 18) says, that it was “in the
spring of the year 1634–5.” Governor Hopkins, in his History of
Providence,[133] places it “some time in the year 1634.” Hutchinson
(vol. i. p. 41) assigns the same year. Later writers have naturally
been led into the same mistake. Backus (vol. i. p. 70) states, that in
January, 1636, Mr. Williams left Massachusetts, which is the right
date, according to the modern mode of computing time, though, by
the style, which then prevailed, it was 1635.
But the period of his banishment is fixed decisively by the records
of Massachusetts, and by Winthrop’s Journal. His sentence of
banishment was passed, November 3, 1635.[134] In January
following, according to Winthrop (vol. i. p. 175) the Court resolved to
send him to England, and the messengers found, that he had
departed from Salem three days before their arrival.
In his letter to Major Mason, Mr. Williams says, “The next year
after my banishment, the Lord drew the bow of the Pequod war
against the country.” This war commenced in July, 1636, with the
murder of Oldham. This fact corroborates the preceding statement.
The time of his leaving Seekonk for Providence cannot be
accurately determined, but we may approach very near to the true
date.
Governor Winslow, of Plymouth, who advised him to leave
Seekonk, entered on his official duties in March, 1635–6. This was
the only year that he held the office of Governor, between 1633 and
1644.[135] Mr. Williams must, therefore, have been at Seekonk,
subsequently to the date of Governor Winslow’s accession to office.
In Mr. Williams’ letter to Major Mason, he says, that he “began to
build and plant at Seekonk.” He did not begin to plant, we may
presume, till the middle of April, if so early.[136] In the same letter, he
speaks of his removal as occasioning his “loss of a harvest that year,”
from which remark we may reasonably infer, that the corn had
attained a considerable growth before he left Seekonk, and
consequently that he did not cross the river till the middle, perhaps,
of June.
On the 26th of July, a letter was received from Mr. Williams, by
Governor Vane, informing him of the murder of Mr. Oldham, by the
Indians of Block-Island.[137] This letter was written at Providence, and
it proves, that Mr. Williams had removed thither previously to the
26th of July.
 We may safely conclude, that he left Seekonk, not far from the
middle of June, 1636. The exact day will never, it is probable, be
ascertained.[138]
There is one circumstance, which, perhaps, misled Mr. Callender
and Governor Hopkins respecting the year of Mr. Williams’ arrival. In
a deed, signed by himself and wife, and dated December 20, 1661,
he used these words: “Having, in the year one thousand six hundred
thirty-four, and in the year one thousand six hundred thirty-five, had
several treaties with Canonicus and Miantinomo, the two chief
sachems of the Narragansets, and in the end purchased of them the
lands and meadows upon the two fresh rivers, called Moshassuck
and Wanasquatucket, the two sachems having, by a deed under
their hands, two years after the sale thereof, established and
confirmed the bounds of these lands.”
The statement, that he had held several treaties with the
Narraganset sachems, in 1634 and 1635, presents some difficulty.
But we have already seen, that while at Plymouth and at Salem, he
held some intercourse with these chiefs. In a manuscript letter,
already quoted, he says:
“I spared no cost towards them, and in gifts to Ousamequin and
all his, and to Canonicus and all his, tokens and presents, many
years before I came in person to the Narraganset; and therefore
when I came, I was welcome to Ousamequin and to the old prince
Canonicus, who was most shy of all English to his last breath.”
It is probable, therefore, that the “treaties” which he mentions, as
having been held in 1634 and 1635, were propositions concerning
lands, made by him, perhaps, to the chiefs, through Indians, whom
he saw at Boston or Salem, and by whom he was in the habit of
sending to them presents. We have already intimated a conjecture,
that for some time before his banishment, he had entertained the
thought of a settlement in the Indian country. If so, it was natural
for him to enter into negotiations for lands. But these propositions,
whatever they were, were not concluded in the years which he
mentions. He says, that “in the end,” he purchased the lands at
Providence, and that the deed was dated two years after the
purchase. We accordingly find, that the deed was dated “at
Narraganset, the 24th of the first month, commonly called March, in
the second year of the plantation, or planting at Moshassuck, or
Providence.” The year is not mentioned in the instrument, but it is
known to have been 1637–8.[139] This deed corresponds with Mr.
Williams’ statement, and refers to the year 1636 as the time of his
actual purchase, and also as that of his arrival.
We will add another fact, to strengthen a position, which has,
perhaps, been sufficiently established. A parchment deed, now in
the possession of Moses Brown, is dated the “14th day of the second
month, in the 5th year of our situation, or plantation, at Moshassuck,
or Providence, and in the 17th year of King Charles, &c. 1641.”[140]
This deed also points to the year 1636, as the date of the first
settlement of Providence.
In June, of this year, the settlement of Hartford (Con.) was begun.
Rev. Messrs. Hooker and Stone, who had been settled at Newtown,
(now Cambridge) removed, with their whole church, and founded
the city of Hartford. A fort had been built, the preceding year, at
Saybrook, at the mouth of the river Connecticut, and small
settlements had been commenced at Weathersfield and Windsor.
 CHAPTER VIII.

Purchase of lands from the Indians—division of the lands among

the settlers.

The spot where Mr. Williams and his companions landed was
within the jurisdiction of the Narraganset Indians.[141] The sachems
of this tribe were Canonicus, and his nephew Miantinomo. The
former was an old man, and he probably associated with him his
young nephew, as better fitted to sustain the toils and cares of
royalty. Their residence is said by Gookin to have been about
Narraganset Bay, and on the island of Canonicut.
The first object of Mr. Williams would naturally be, to obtain from
the sachems a grant of land for his new colony. He probably visited
them, and received a verbal cession of the territory, which, two
years afterwards, was formally conveyed to him by a deed. This
instrument may properly be quoted here:[142]
“At Narraganset, the 24th of the first month, commonly called
March, the second year of the plantation or planting at Moshassuck,
or Providence; Memorandum, that we, Canonicus and Miantinomo,
the two chief sachems of Narraganset, having two years since sold
unto Roger Williams the lands and meadows upon the two fresh
rivers, called Moshassuck and Wanasquatucket, do now, by these
presents, establish and confirm the bounds of these lands, from the
river and fields of Pawtucket, the great hill of Notaquoncanot, on the
northwest, and the town of Mashapaug, on the west.[143] We also, in
consideration of the many kindnesses and services he hath
continually done for us, both with our friends of Massachusetts, as
also at Connecticut, and Apaum, or Plymouth, we do freely give unto
him all that land from those rivers reaching to Pawtuxet river; as
also the grass and meadows upon the said Pawtuxet river. In witness
whereof, we have hereunto set our hands.”
The mark (a bow) of CANONICUS.
The mark (an arrow) of MIANTINOMO.

In the presence of

The mark of Sohash.

The mark of Alsomunsit.

“1639. Memorandum. 3d month, 9th day, this was all again

confirmed by Miantinomo. He acknowledged, that he also [illegible]
[144]
and gave up the streams of Pawtucket and Pawtuxet, without
limits, we might have for our use of cattle.
Witness hereof,

Roger Williams,
Benedict Arnold.”

The lands thus ceded to Mr. Williams he conveyed to twelve men,

who accompanied, or soon joined, him, reserving for himself an
equal part only. Before we narrate the particulars of this transaction,
a few remarks are necessary.
It appears from the tenor of the deed, and from other evidence,
that the original sale included only the lands mentioned in the first
part of the deed. These are said by the sachems to have been “sold”
to Mr. Williams. The grass and meadows on Pawtuxet river are said
to be given to him, in consideration of his services.
An interesting question, which occasioned much debate in the
early times of the colony, claims consideration here. Were the lands,
ceded by the sachems, so conveyed, that they became the property
of Roger Williams himself, and might he, with justice and honor,
have sold or retained them, as he pleased? An answer to this
question will throw light on his subsequent conduct.
The conveyance in the deed is made to him alone. The title,
consequently, was vested in him, so far as the instrument went. But
this fact does not decide the point. It was a subject of accusation
against him, that the conveyance was not made to him and his
associates. Did he, then, act on behalf of others, as well as for
himself?
If his own solemn and often repeated assertions are worthy of
credit, he obtained the lands by his own money and influence, and
might have held them as his property.
He argues the case at large, in his letter to the Commissioners, in
1677, to whom he was accused of unfair conduct respecting the
lands.
He asserts, in the first place, “It is not true, that I was employed
by any, was supplied by any, or desired any to come with me into
these parts. My soul’s desire was, to do the natives good, and to
that end to learn their language, (which I afterwards printed) and
therefore desired not to be troubled with English company.” He adds,
that “out of pity, he gave leave to several persons to come along in
his company.” He makes the same statement in his deed of 1661:
—“I desired it might be for a shelter for persons distressed for
conscience. I then considering the condition of divers of my
distressed countrymen, I communicated my said purchase unto my
loving friends, [whom he names] who then desired to take shelter
here with me.”
It seems, then, that his original design was to come alone,
probably to dwell among the Indians, and do them good; but he
altered his plan, and resolved to establish a refuge for those who
might flee from persecution. The project was his own, and worthy of
his generous and liberal mind. He certainly was not employed, as an
agent, to purchase lands for others. He uses another argument: “I
mortgaged my house in Salem (worth some hundreds) for supplies
to go through, and, therefore, was it a single business.”
 Having thus shown that he acted for himself, and on his own
responsibility, he states, that the lands were procured from the
sachems by his influence alone. He enumerates several advantages
which he enjoyed in this negotiation: “1. A constant, zealous desire
to dive into the natives’ language. 2. God was pleased to give me a
painful, patient spirit to lodge with them in their filthy, smoky holes,
(even while I lived at Plymouth and Salem) to gain their tongue. 3. I
spared no cost towards them, and in gifts to Ousamequin, yea, and
all his, and to Canonicus, and all his, tokens and presents, many
years before I came in person to the Narraganset, and when I came,
I was welcome to Ousamequin, and to the old prince Canonicus,
who was most shy of all English, to his last breath. 4. I was known
by all the Wampanoags and the Narragansets to be a public speaker
at Plymouth and Salem, and, therefore, with them, held as a
sachem. 5. I could debate with them (in a great measure) in their
own language. 6. I had the favor and countenance of that noble
soul, Mr. Winthrop, whom all Indians respected.”
He proceeds to state, respecting Canonicus, that “it was not
thousands nor tens of thousands of money could have bought of him
an English entrance into this Bay.”
In the deed, already quoted, he says, “By God’s merciful
assistance, I was the procurer of the purchase, not by monies nor
payment, the natives being so shy and jealous, that monies could
not do it, but by that language, acquaintance and favor with the
natives, and other advantages, which it pleased God to give me; and
also bore the charges and venture of all the gratuities, which I gave
to the great sachems, and other sachems round about us, and lay
engaged for a loving and peaceable neighborhood with them, to my
great charge and travel.”[145]
These facts prove, that the lands were granted to Mr. Williams, as
a personal favor, as an expression of gratitude on the part of the
sachems, and as a remuneration for presents, which they had been
receiving from him for several years. Mr. Williams, then, was entitled
to make the assertion, which is contained in his touching letter to
the town of Providence, in 1654: “I have been blamed for parting
with Moshassuck, and afterwards Pawtuxet, (which were mine own,
as truly as any man’s coat upon his back) without reserving to
myself a foot of land, or an inch of voice, more than to my servants
and strangers.”[146]
Mr. Williams was thus the legal proprietor of the lands which were
ceded to him, and he might have remained so, if he had pleased. He
had a clear title from the Indians, and he had, a few years later
certainly, sufficient influence with the rulers in England, to obtain a
recognition of his rights, and a confirmation of his authority. He
might, doubtless, have been, like William Penn, the proprietary of his
colony, and might have exercised a control over its government. He
would, we may easily believe, have exercised his authority as wisely
and beneficially as the great legislator of Pennsylvania. The peace of
his settlement and his own comfort would, perhaps, have been
promoted, if he had retained this power awhile, instead of
committing it to the whole company of settlers, among whom, from
the nature of the colony, as a refuge for “all sorts of consciences,”
some heterogeneous and discordant tempers might be expected to
find admission. That he was blamed for this conduct, we know from
his letter to the town of Providence, already quoted;[147] and as that
letter was written soon after his return from England, we may infer,
that the censure came from leading men there.
But he chose to found his colony on pure democratic principles; as
a commonwealth, where all civil power should be exercised by the
people alone, and where God should be the only ruler over the
conscience.
We will now relate the facts respecting his division of the lands
among his associates.
The persons who accompanied him, at his first landing, were
William Harris, John Smith, Joshua Verin, Thomas Angell and Francis
Wickes. Several others joined him at various times, previously to
October 8, 1638, on which day, Mr. Williams executed an instrument,
of the following tenor.[148]
“Providence, 8th of the 8th month, 1638, (so called.)
 “Memorandum, that I, Roger Williams, having formerly purchased of Canonicus
and Miantinomo, this our situation, or plantation, of New Providence,[149] viz. the
two fresh rivers, Wanasquatucket and Moshassuck, and the ground and meadows
thereupon; in consideration of thirty pounds received from the inhabitants of said
place, do freely and fully pass, grant and make over equal right and power of
enjoying and disposing of the same grounds and lands unto my loving friends and
neighbors, Stukely Westcott, William Arnold, Thomas James, Robert Cole, John
Greene, John Throckmorton, William Harris, William Carpenter, Thomas Olney,
Francis Weston, Richard Waterman, Ezekiel Holliman, and such others as the
major part of us shall admit into the same fellowship of vote with us:—As also I do
freely make and pass over equal right and power of enjoying and disposing of the
lands and grounds reaching from the aforesaid rivers unto the great river
Pawtuxet, with the grass and meadows thereupon, which was so lately given and
granted by the aforesaid sachems to me. Witness my hand,
ROGER WILLIAMS.”[150]

On the 20th of December, 1661, the following deed was executed.

It is inserted here, because it is an interesting document, and it
throws much light on the transactions which we are considering.
“Be it known unto all men by these presents, that I, Roger
Williams, of the town of Providence, in the Narraganset Bay, in New-
England, having, in the year one thousand six hundred thirty-four,
and in the year one thousand six hundred thirty-five, had several
treaties with Canonicus and Miantinomo, the two chief sachems of
the Narraganset, and in the end purchased of them the lands and
meadows upon the two fresh rivers called Moshassuck and
Wanasquatucket, the two sachems having, by a deed, under their
hands, two years after the sale thereof, established and confirmed
the bounds of these lands from the rivers and fields of Pawtucket,
the great hill of Notaquoncanot on the northwest, and the town of
Mashapaug on the west, notwithstanding I had the frequent promise
of Miantinomo, my kind friend, that it should not be land that I
should want about these bounds mentioned, provided that I satisfied
the Indians there inhabiting. I having made covenant of peaceable
neighborhood with all the sachems and natives round about us, and
having, of a sense of God’s merciful Providence unto me in my
distress, called the place Providence, I desired it might be for a
shelter for persons distressed for conscience. I then considering the
condition of divers of my distressed countrymen, I communicated
my said purchase unto my loving friends, John Throckmorton,
William Arnold, William Harris, Stukely Westcott, John Greene,
Senior, Thomas Olney, Senior, Richard Waterman, and others, who
then desired to take shelter here with me, and in succession unto so
many others as we should receive into the fellowship and society of
enjoying and disposing of the said purchase; and besides the first
that were admitted, our town records declare, that afterwards we
received Chad Brown, William Field, Thomas Harris, Senior, William
Wickenden, Robert Williams, Gregory Dexter, and others, as our
town book declares; and whereas, by God’s merciful assistance, I
was the procurer of the purchase, not by monies nor payment, the
natives being so shy and jealous that monies could not do it, but by
that language, acquaintance and favor with the natives, and other
advantages, which it pleased God to give me, and also bore the
charges and venture of all the gratuities, which I gave to the great
sachems and other sachems and natives round about us, and lay
engaged for a loving and peaceable neighborhood with them, to my
great charge and travel; it was therefore thought fit by some loving
friends, that I should receive some loving consideration and gratuity,
and it was agreed between us, that every person, that should be
admitted into the fellowship of enjoying land and disposing of the
purchase, should pay thirty shillings unto the public stock; and first,
about thirty pounds should be paid unto myself, by thirty shillings a
person, as they were admitted; this sum I received, and in love to
my friends, and with respect to a town and place of succor for the
distressed as aforesaid, I do acknowledge the said sum and payment
as full satisfaction; and whereas in the year one thousand six
hundred and thirty-seven,[151] so called, I delivered the deed
subscribed by the two aforesaid chief sachems, so much thereof as
concerneth the aforementioned lands, from myself and from my
heirs, unto the whole number of the purchasers, with all my power,
right and title therein, reserving only unto myself one single share
equal unto any of the rest of that number; I now again, in a more
formal way, under my hand and seal, confirm my former resignation
of that deed of the lands aforesaid, and bind myself, my heirs, my
executors, my administrators and assigns, never to molest any of the
said persons already received, or hereafter to be received, into the
society of purchasers, as aforesaid; but that they, their heirs,
executors, administrators and assigns, shall at all times quietly and
peaceably enjoy the premises and every part thereof, and I do
further by these presents bind myself, my heirs, my executors, my
administrators and assigns, never to lay any claim, nor cause any
claim to be laid, to any of the lands aforementioned, or unto any
part or parcel thereof, more than unto my own single share, by
virtue or pretence of any former bargain, sale or mortgage
whatsoever, or jointures, thirds or entails made by me, the said
Roger Williams, or of any other person, either for, by, through or
under me. In witness whereof, I have hereunto set my hand and
seal, the twentieth day of December, in the present year one
thousand six hundred sixty-one.
“ROGER WILLIAMS, (Seal.[152])

“Signed, sealed and delivered in the presence of us, Thomas

Smith, Joseph Carpenter. Memorandum, the words, of the purchase,
were interlined before these presents were sealed. I, Mary Williams,
wife unto Roger Williams, do assent unto the premises. Witness my
hand, this twentieth day of December, in this present year one
thousand six hundred sixty-one.
The mark of (M. W.) MARY WILLIAMS.[153]

“Acknowledged and subscribed before me,

“WILLIAM FIELD, Assistant.

“Enrolled, April the 6th, 1662, pr. me,

“THOMAS OLNEY, Junr., Town Clerk.”

From this document, it appears, that the twelve persons to whom

the lands, on the Moshassuck and Wanasquatucket rivers, were
conveyed by Mr. Williams, did not pay him any part of the thirty
pounds, which he received; but that the sum of thirty shillings was
exacted of every person who was afterwards admitted, to form a
common stock. From this stock, thirty pounds were paid to Mr.
Williams, for the reasons mentioned in the instrument last quoted.
[154]

For the lands on the Pawtuxet river, however, Mr. Williams received
twelve-thirteenths of twenty pounds, from the twelve persons
named in the deed of October 8, 1638. On the same day, the
following instrument was executed:—
“It is agreed, this day abovesaid, that all the meadow grounds at
Pawtuxet, bounding upon the fresh river, on both sides, are to be
impropriated unto those thirteen persons, being now incorporated
together in our town of Providence, viz.: Ezekiel Holliman, Francis
Weston, Roger Williams, Thomas Olney, Robert Cole, William
Carpenter, William Harris, John Throckmorton, Richard Waterman,
John Greene, Thomas James, William Arnold, Stukely Westcott; and
to be equally divided among them, and every one to pay an equal
proportion to raise up the sum of twenty pounds for the same; and if
it shall come to pass, that some, or any one, of these thirteen
persons aforesaid, do not pay or give satisfaction of his or their
equal proportion of the aforesaid sum of twenty pounds, by this day
eight weeks, which will be the 17th day of the 10th month next
ensuing, then they or he shall leave their or his proportion of
meadow grounds unto the rest of those thirteen persons, to be at
their disposing, who shall make up the whole sum of twenty pounds,
which is to be paid to Roger Williams.”
This money was punctually paid on the 3d of December following,
and was acknowledged as follows:—
“According to former agreement, I received of the neighbors
abovesaid, the full sum of £18 11s. 3d. Per me,
ROGER WILLIAMS.”

He thus retained an equal share in the lands on the Pawtuxet river,

which were very valuable to the new settlers, on account of the
natural meadows along its banks. These lands were afterwards the
occasion of a protracted contention.
From the facts which we have stated, it appears, that Mr. Williams
generously admitted the first twelve proprietors of the Providence
purchase to an equal share with himself, without exacting from them
any remuneration. The thirty pounds which he received were paid by
succeeding settlers, at the rate of thirty shillings each. But this sum
of thirty pounds was not paid to him, as an equivalent for the land.
It was, as he calls it, a “loving gratuity,” and was intended to
remunerate him for the presents which he had given to the Indians,
and for the expenses which he had incurred in procuring the lands.
But he affirmed, that all which he received was far less than he
expended.[155] The same may be said respecting the money paid for
the Pawtuxet lands.
The conduct of Mr. Williams, in these transactions, must be
acknowledged to have been highly honorable, disinterested and
liberal. He held the title to the whole territory, and he might,
apparently, have amassed wealth and gratified ambition, by retaining
the control of the town, and selling the lands, to be held of him as
the proprietor. But he renounced all plans of power and emolument;
he placed himself on an equality with the other settlers, and
surrendered the territory to the whole body of freemen, among
whom he claimed no other influence than that which sprung from
his personal character. The sum which he received was not even a
remuneration for his actual expenses in procuring the territory.
It does not diminish this praise, that the settlers were obliged to
satisfy the claims of many individual Indians. The grant from the
sachems might, perhaps, have been considered as a full title; but
the justice and humanity of Roger Williams and his friends, led them
to make compensation to the natives who occupied the territory. The
whole sum paid to Mr. Williams and to the Indians, for Providence
and Pawtuxet, was stated by William Harris, in 1677, to have been
one hundred and sixty pounds.
 CHAPTER IX.

Settlement of the town of Providence—Whatcheer—islands of

Prudence, Patience and Hope.

Our account of the division of the lands has led us onward to a

period more than two years after Mr. Williams’ arrival. Some time
must have been spent in his negotiations with the sachems; but he
certainly erected a house soon after his landing, for in a letter,
written within a short time from that event, he says, “Miantinomo
kept his barbarous court lately at my house,” and in his letter to
Major Mason, he mentions, that he entertained General Stoughton,
at his house, in May, 1637, when the Massachusetts troops were on
their march against the Pequods.
It is probable, that Mrs. Williams and her two children came from
Salem to Providence, in the summer of 1636, in company with
several persons, who wished to join their exiled pastor.[156]
The family of Mr. Williams was now dependent on his exertions for
support. No supplies could be derived from Massachusetts. The
natives were unable to afford much aid. It is probable, that Mr.
Williams had nearly expended all his funds, in the support of his
family during his absence, and in the negotiations with the Indians.
Of his poverty,[157] there is evidence, in a touching incident,
mentioned in his letter to Major Mason. It is alike honorable to all
the parties: “It pleased the Father of Spirits to touch many hearts,
dear to him, with many relentings; amongst which, that great and
pious soul, Mr. Winslow, melted, and kindly visited me at Providence,
and put a piece of gold into the hands of my wife, for our supply.”
 In a deed, which was enrolled January 29, 1667, Mr. Williams says,
that he planted, with his own hands, at his first coming, the two
Indian fields, Whatcheer and Saxifrax Hill, which he had purchased
of the natives. Thus was he forced, as at many other times, to resort
to manual labor for his subsistence. In his reply to Mr. Cotton, (p.
38) he says: “It is not unknown to many witnesses, in Plymouth,
Salem and Providence, that the discusser’s time hath not been spent
(though as much as any others whosoever) altogether in spiritual
labors and public exercises of the word; but day and night, at home
and abroad, on the land and water, at the hoe, at the oar, for bread.”
But he sustained all his labors and hardships with a patient spirit,
and with a steadfast adherence to his principles.
His house was, undoubtedly, erected near the spot where he
landed, and a few rods eastward of the celebrated spring.[158] Here
the wanderer found a resting place. This was his home, for more
than forty years. Here he died, and near the site of his dwelling his
ashes were deposited.
It would be an interesting effort of the imagination, to contrast the
situation of Providence at the time of the settlement, with the
present condition of that beautiful and flourishing town. Where now
are busy streets, and ample warehouses, and elegant mansions, and
a population of nearly 20,000 souls, were, at that time, dense
forests, and a few scattered Indian families. How astonishing is the
change! Roger Williams himself, with all his vigor of imagination, and
his ardent temperament, could not have anticipated the expansion of
his little settlement to its present amplitude, beauty and strength.
The glorious vision could not have visited his mind; but he acted
under the power of that prophetic faith, which assured him of
success, in his efforts for the welfare of men. He looked beyond the
present, to the bright future, and was confident, that his principles,
though then misunderstood and rejected, would ultimately triumph.
In the course of two years, Mr. Williams was joined by a number
of friends from Massachusetts, with whom, as we have seen, he
shared the lands which he had obtained. The community, thus
formed, were invested with the power of admitting others to the
privileges of citizenship. Their number was soon increased, by
emigrants from Massachusetts, and from Europe.[159] It was the
design of Mr. Williams, that his colony should be open to all persons
who might choose to reside there, without regard to their religious
opinions. He was careful, nevertheless, to provide for the
maintenance of the civil peace. Every inhabitant was required to
subscribe the following covenant:
“We, whose names are here underwritten, being desirous to
inhabit in the town of Providence, do promise to submit ourselves, in
active or passive obedience, to all such orders or agreements as
shall be made for public good of the body, in an orderly way, by the
major consent of the present inhabitants, masters of families,
incorporated together into a township, and such others whom they
shall admit unto the same, only in civil things.”
This simple instrument, which combines the principles of a pure
democracy, and of unrestricted religious liberty, was the basis of the
first government in Providence. It was undoubtedly drawn up by
Roger Williams. It bears the impress of his character, and it was the
germ of those free institutions, under which Rhode-Island has
flourished till the present day.
The government of the town was thus placed in the hands of the
inhabitants; and the legislative, judicial and executive functions were
exercised, for several years, by the citizens in town meeting. Two
deputies were appointed, from time to time, whose duties were, to
preserve order, to settle disputes, to call town meetings, to preside
in them, and to see that their resolutions were executed.[160] But the
power of the deputies was very limited, and their term of office
short. A form of government so simple could not exist, except in a
small community, and among men whose moral principles were
pure, and their habits peaceful. Winthrop was mistaken, when he
asserted of the settlers at Providence, that they “would have no
magistrates.”[161] If they had not the usual forms, they had the
essence of magistracy.
The settlers applied themselves to agriculture, for subsistence. An
intelligent antiquarian, of Providence, whose opinions are authority
on all points touching its early history, says,[162] that the first
inhabitants settled “on such places as were most convenient, and
planted their corn on the old Indian fields, as they could agree
among themselves. When their number had increased, they laid out
what is now the Main street, on the east side of the river, and
divided the land eastward of the street, into lots of six acres each,
being of equal breadth, and extending back to what is now Hope
street. There were eventually one hundred and two of these six acre
lots, extending from Mile End Brook, which enters the river a little
north of Fox Point, to Harrington’s Lane, on the north, which lane is
now the dividing line between Providence and North Providence.
Each proprietor had one of these six acre lots, and on which he built
his house. How they were located, whether by lot or draft, or by
choice, I am not informed; but it is probable that the first comers
had their choice, as the six acre lot of Roger Williams was the place
where he first landed, and had built his house.[163] The street, now
Bowen street, leading from Main to Benefit street, divides that part
of his lot nearly in the middle. The object of locating themselves so
near together was for security and mutual aid against the Indians,
and in conformity to the practice in Europe. Each proprietor, besides
his town lot, as it was called, took up out land, upland and
meadows, by grant of the whole in proprietors’ meeting. These
grants were entered on the records. None of them, at first, took up
sufficient for a farm in one place. Each one, besides his upland, as it
was termed, or planting land, had, in another place, and frequently
quite distant, his proportion of meadow land. This was necessary,
because there was no hay seed known or in use. They had no grass
for winter fodder, but bog or salt meadow, or thatch, and each must
have his share of this, or his cattle would perish, or browse in the
woods in winter.”
Roger Williams, in addition to his six acre town lot, had a lot in the
neighborhood of Whatcheer cove. The deed, already quoted, may be
appropriately introduced here, as a document which belongs to the
history of Roger Williams and of the town:
 “Whereas, by the good Providence of God, I, Roger Williams,
purchased this plantation of the natives, partly by the favors which I
had long before with the sachems gotten at my cost and hazard, and
partly with my own monies, paid them, in satisfaction for the settling
of the said plantation, in the midst of the barbarians round about us;
and whereas for the name of God and public good, and especially
for the receiving of such as were troubled elsewhere about the
worship of God, I freely parted with my whole purchase unto the
township, or commonalty, of the then inhabitants, and yet reserved
to myself the two Indian fields, called Whatcheer and Saxifrax Hill,
as having peculiarly satisfied the owners of those fields for them,
besides my general purchase of the whole from the sachems, and
also planted both those fields at my first coming as my own peculiar
with mine own hands, and whereas the town of Providence by their
deputies, then called five Disposers, William Field was one, long
since laid out unto me the aforesaid field called Whatcheer, and
adjoined my six acre lot unto it, making up together twelve acres by
the eighteen foot pole, and I having forgotten my bounds, the town
deputies, William Field and Arthur Fenner, have since laid out and
measured the said twelve acres unto me by the eighteen foot pole
as aforesaid. These are to certify unto all men, that I, the said Roger
Williams, have, for a full satisfaction already received from James
Ellis, of Providence, sold and demised unto the said James Ellis, the
said twelve acres aforesaid, bounded on the east by the river, on the
west by a highway between the said twelve acres and the land of
Nicholas Power deceased, on the north by a highway lying between
the said twelve acres and William Field’s land, and on the south by
Mr. Benedict Arnold’s land; the aforesaid twelve acres I do by these
presents demise and alienate from myself, my heirs, executors, &c.
to the aforesaid James Ellis, his heirs, executors, &c. with all the
appertenances and privileges thereof.
Witness my hand and seal,
ROGER WILLIAMS. (An arrow.)
 In the presence of us witnesses, Arthur Fenner, William Field, enrolled the 29th
day of January, in the year 1667.
Pr. me, SHADRACH MANTON, Town Clerk.”

This field, Whatcheer, was afterwards sold to Arthur Fenner,

Esquire, and is now occupied, as the family seat of the Hon. James
Fenner, formerly Governor of Rhode-Island.
We may mention here, that Mr. Williams obtained the island of
Prudence, from the Indians, and held it as a joint proprietor with
Governor Winthrop, of Massachusetts. The following letter relates to
this transaction:[164]
“The last of the week, I think the 28th of the 8th.

“Sir,

“The bearer, Miantinomo, resolving to go on his visit, I am bold to

request a word of advice from you, concerning a proposition made
by Canonicus and himself to me some half year since. Canonicus
gave an island in this bay to Mr. Oldham, by name Chibachuwese,
upon condition, as it should seem, that he would dwell there near
unto them. The Lord (in whose hands all our hearts are) turning
their affections towards myself, they desired me to remove thither
and dwell nearer to them. I have answered once and again, that for
the present I mind not to remove; but if I have it from them, I would
give them satisfaction for it, and build a little house and put in some
swine, as understanding the place to have store of fish and good
feeding for swine. Of late I have heard, that Mr. Gibbons, upon
occasion, motioned your desire and his own of putting some swine
on some of these islands, which hath made me since more desire to
obtain it, because I might thereby not only benefit myself, but also
pleasure yourself, whom I more desire to pleasure and honor. I
spoke of it now to this sachem, and he tells me, that because of the
store of fish, Canonicus desires that I would accept half, (it being
spectacle-wise, and between a mile or two in circuit, as I guess) and
he would reserve the other; but I think, if I go over, I shall obtain
the whole. Your loving counsel, how far it may be inoffensive,
because it was once (upon a condition not kept,) Mr. Oldham’s. So,
with respective salutes to your kind self and Mrs. Winthrop, I rest,
“Your worship’s unfeigned, in all I may,
“ROGER WILLIAMS.

“For his much honored Mr. Governor, these.”

Governor Winthrop retained his moiety of the island, and gave it,
in his will, to his son Stephen.[165]
Mr. Williams also owned the islands Patience and Hope. The
names of the three islands are indicative of his mind. William Harris
said, in 1677, in a somewhat reproachful tone, that these islands
were “all put away.” Mr. Williams sold them, perhaps, as he certainly
did some other portions of his property, to maintain himself and
family, during his long and unrequited toils, in England, for the
welfare of the colony. To a native of Rhode-Island, these islands
should be interesting monuments of the virtues and services of her
founder.
Having thus stated the manner in which the settlement at
Providence was commenced, we must now return to the period of
the first arrival of Mr. Williams, and narrate briefly his agency in
averting the imminent danger of a general league among the natives
for the destruction of the colonists.
 CHAPTER X.

Mr. Williams prevents the Indian league—war with the Pequods—

their defeat and ruin.

The Pequods were, as we have already remarked, the most

warlike tribe of Indians in New-England, and the most hostile to the
colonists, not perhaps so much from a greater degree of ferocity, as
from a clearer foresight of the effects which the natives had reason
to apprehend from the increase of the whites.
In 1634, Captains Stone and Norton, of Massachusetts, with eight
other Englishmen, were murdered by the Indians, in a small trading
vessel, on Connecticut river. It is not certain, that the murderers
were Pequods, but they fled to this tribe for protection, and divided
with them the property which they had plundered. The Pequods thus
became responsible for the crime; and the magistrates of
Massachusetts sent to them messengers to demand satisfaction, but
without success. The Pequods afterwards sent messengers, with
gifts, to Massachusetts, exculpating the tribe from the guilt of the
murder. The Governor and Council, after a conference of several
days, and a consultation, as usual, with the principal ministers,
concluded with them a treaty of peace and friendship.[166]
But no treaty could appease the jealous hostility of the Pequods.
In July, 1636, a short time after Mr. Williams’ removal to Providence,
a party of Indians murdered Mr. John Oldham, near Block-Island,
whither he had gone from Massachusetts, in a small barque, for
purposes of trade. The murderers fled to the Pequods, by whom
they were protected. It was suspected, however, that the murder
was contrived by some of the Narragansets and Nianticks; and there
was evidently some disposition among these tribes and the Pequods
to form a league for the destruction of the English.
The first intelligence of the murder of Mr. Oldham, and of the
proposed league, was communicated by Mr. Williams, in a letter to
Governor Vane, at Boston, a few days after the event. With a spirit
of forgiveness and philanthropy, which honors his memory, he
promptly informed those who had so recently expelled him from the
colony, of the peril which now threatened them. It may be alleged,
that self-preservation impelled him to appeal to Massachusetts for
assistance to defeat a project, which, if accomplished, would have
overwhelmed himself and his colony in ruin. But his influence with
the Indians was so great, that it is probable he might have secured
his own safety and that of his companions. The merit of his
generous mediation ought not to be sullied, because his own welfare
was at the same time advanced. Violent passions often make men
forget or disregard their own interests. A vindictive spirit might have
been willing to hazard its own safety, for the pleasure of ample
vengeance on the authors of its wrongs.
The Massachusetts government, on the 24th of August, sent by
water an armed force of eighty volunteers, under the command of
John Endicott, Esq. with instructions to “put to death the men of
Block-Island, but to spare the women and children, and to bring
them away, and to take possession of the island; and from thence to
go to the Pequods, to demand the murderers of Captain Stone and
other English, some thousand fathoms of wampum, for damages,
and some of their children as hostages, which, if they should refuse,
they were to obtain it by force.”[167] These stern orders were not
strictly executed; yet many Indians were killed, a large number of
wigwams were burnt, at Block-Island and on Connecticut river, some
corn was destroyed, and other damage was done. The troops
returned to Boston, on the 14th of September, without the loss of a
man.
This expedition had little effect, except to exasperate the natives.
Mr. Endicott was the object of many censures for returning, without