PROBABILITY

Probability refers to the chance of happening or not happening of an event. The probability of given event
may be defined as the numerical value given to the likely hood of the occurrence of that event. It is a number
lying between ‘0’ and ‘1’ ‘0’ denotes the even which cannot occur, and ‘1’ denotes the event which is
certain to occur.

Terms use in Probability

• Random Experiment

A random experiment is an experiment that has two or more outcomes which vary in an unpredictable
manner from trial to trail when conducted under uniform conditions.

• Sample Point

Every indecomposable outcome of a random experiment is called a sample point. It is also called simple
event or elementary outcome.

Eg. When a die is thrown, getting ‘3’ is a sample point.

• Sample space

Sample space of a random experiment is the set containing all the sample points of that random experiment.

Eg:- When a coin is tossed, the sample space is (Head, Tail)

• Event

An event is the result of a random experiment. It is a subset of the sample space of a random experiment.
Sure Event (Certain Event) An event whose occurrence is inevitable is called sure even. Eg:- Getting a white
ball from a box containing all while balls.

• Impossible Events

An event whose occurrence is impossible, is called impossible event. Eg:- Getting a white ball from a box
containing all red balls.

• Uncertain Events

An event whose occurrence is neither sure nor impossible is called uncertain event.

Eg:- Getting a white ball from a box containing white balls and black balls.

• Equally likely Events

Two events are said to be equally likely if anyone of them cannot be expected to occur in preference to
other. For example, getting herd and getting tail when a coin is tossed are equally likely events.

• Mutually exclusive events

A set of events are said to be mutually exclusive of the occurrence of one of them excludes the possibility of
the occurrence of the others.
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• Exhaustive Events:
 A group of events is said to be exhaustive when it includes all possible outcomes of the random experiment
under consideration.

• Dependent Events:

Two or more events are said to be dependent if the happening of one of them affects the happening of the
other.

Different Approaches/Definitions of Probability

1. Classical or Priori Approach

If out of ‘n’ exhaustive, mutually exclusive and equally likely outcomes of an experiment; ‘f’ are favourable
to the occurrence of an event ‘A’, then the probability of ‘A’ is defined as to be m/n. P(A) = f/n

2. Relative Frequency Definition or Empirical Approach

According to Relative Frequency definition, the probability of an event can be defined as the relative
frequency with which it occurs in an indefinitely large number of trials.

P(A) = f/n

3. Subjective Approach to Probability

The exponents of ubjective approach defines probability as a measure of personal confidence or belief based
on whatever evidence is available.

4. Axiomatic Approach (Modern Approach) to Probability

Let ‘S’ be the sample space of a random experiment, and ‘A’ be an event of the random experiment, so that
‘A’ is the subset of ‘S’. Then we can associate a real number to the event ‘A’. This number will be called
probability of ‘A’ if it satisfies the following three axioms or postulates :-

(1) The probability of an event ranges from 0 and 1. If the event is certain, its probability shall be 1. If
the event cannot take place, its probability shall be zero.

(2) (2) The sum of probabilities of all sample points of the sample space is equal to 1. i.e, P(S) = 1

(3) If A and B are mutually exclusive (disjoint) events, then the probability of occurrence of either A or
B shall be : P(AᵁB) = P(A) + P(B)

THEOREMS OF PROBABILITY

There are two important theorems of probability. They are :

1. Addition Theorem

2. Multiplication Theorem

Addition Theorem Here, there are 2 situations.

(a) Events are mutually exclusive

(b) Events are not mutually exclusive

(a) Addition theorem (Mutually Exclusive Events) 27

 If two events, ‘A’ and ‘B’, are mutually exclusive the probability of the occurrence of either ‘A’ or ‘B’ is
the sum of the individual probability of A and B. P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

ie, P(AᵁB) = P(A) + P(B)

(b) Addition theorem (Not mutually exclusive events)

If two events, A and B are not mutually exclusive the probability of the occurrence of either A or B is the
sum of their individual probability minus probability for both to happen.

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

i.e., P(A UB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B)

2. MULTIPLICATION THEOREM

Here there are two situations:

(a) Events are independent

(b) Events are dependent

(a) Multiplication theorem (independent events)

If two events are independent, then the probability of occurring both will be the product of the individual
probability

P(A and B) = P(A).P(B) i.e., P(A‫ת‬B) = P(A).P(B)

(b) Multiplication theorem (dependent Events):-

If two events, A and B are dependent, the probability of occurring 2nd event will be affected by the
outcome of the first. P(A‫ת‬B) = P(A).P(B/A)

Set theory

Set

Set theory is the mathematical theory of well-determined collections, called sets

Null set

In mathematical sets, the null set, also called the empty set, is the set that does not contain anything

Subset of a set.

In mathematics, a set A is a subset of a set B if all elements of A are also elements of B; B is then a superset
of A.

Disjoint sets

In mathematics, two sets are said to be disjoint sets if they have no element in common.
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Representation sets by venn diagram
A Venn diagram is an illustration that uses circles to show the relationships among things or finite groups of
things.

Permutation

A permutation of a set is, loosely speaking, an arrangement of its members into a sequence or linear order,
or if the set is already ordered, a rearrangement of its elements.

Combination

A combination is a mathematical technique that determines the number of possible arrangements in a

collection of items where the order of the selection does not matter.