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Routledge Frontiers of Political Economy
List of figures vi
List of tables vii
Acknowledgments viii
Index 174
Figures
Free cash
Free cash is the cash (profit after tax plus depreciation) left over after new busi-
ness investment. From a societal perspective, free cash measures how much
remuneration the wealthy receive after carrying out their social role in providing
employment and income through investment. Free cash derives from capitalists’
consumption that partially self-funds through security payouts, with the remainder
available for speculative purposes, mergers, stock repurchases and capital export.
As will be discussed, free cash has been involved in imperialist expansion as well
as being foundational in an assortment of speculative excesses. The last part of
this book shows how free cash has expanded in recent decades and makes an argu-
ment for a larger governmental role in production and investment. It also makes
an argument for higher taxes on the wealthy so as to minimize the speculative
episodes that have periodically imploded in downturns. High taxes on cash would
simultaneously rectify—at least in part—the greatly expanded rise of inequality
of income and wealth that has arisen partly as a result of free cash spillage in the
stock market. High taxes on cash would also allow for much greater monetary
means for governmental investment projects aimed at a variety of human needs
underserved by existing markets.
Prologue and preview 7
As a term, free cash was first coined by Michal Jensen in understanding the
leveraged buyout movement of the 1980s (Jensen, 1986).8 But as a macro concept
for understanding free cash generation across the entire economy, free cash owes
its mathematical formulation to Michael Kalecki (1899–1970), who, in the 1930s,
understood that government deficits and export surpluses would generate gross
profits (cash) in excess of new investment and capitalists’ consumption. I provide
a skeletal model of Kalecki’s formulation in Chapter 2, and an expanded version
in Chapter 6, where I explore the relationship of both government deficit spend-
ing and non-corporate deficit spending to free cash. Kalecki’s understanding that
government deficits expand the savings pool stands in stark contradiction to the
familiar “Twins Deficit” thesis whereby government deficits are alleged to crowd
out investment through the siphoning-off of saving.
Kalecki’s formulation of free cash and deficits was constructed under the
conditions of the Great Depression. In consequence, he did not spell out the full
ramifications of how free cash could be spilled in domestic markets through merg-
ers, dividends and speculative endeavors. But he did understand that imperialist
adventures were partially caused by the inability of capitalists to dispose of free
cash without capital export. I take up the issue of imperialism in Chapter 3 where I
explore John Atkinson Hobson’s early theory of imperialism. Hobson applied free
cash theory (without the name) to not only European colonial expansion but also to
the neo-colonial expansion of the U.S., exemplified most spectacularly in the terri-
torial grab associated with the Spanish–American War. Hobson also understood the
monopolization process of the late nineteenth century as a generator of free cash and
so linked monopoly to imperialism. In a theme also taken up by Thorstein Veblen—
Hobson’s contemporary—Hobson understood that monopoly generated free cash
by restricting output and investment in the service of higher prices and profits.
Over the next decades of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, outlets for free
cash turned inwards towards mergers and speculation. For the 1920s, I estimate in
Chapter 4 the free cash that drove the second merger wave that swallowed over
7,000 firms through acquisitions (Thorp, 1931, p. 78); Soule, [1947] 1975, p. 142),
and provided a source of stockbroker loans outside of traditional banking conduits
(Kindleberger, 1973, p. 113). Beyond certain limits, cash could not profitably be
invested in new facilities within the recently formed oligopolistic structures. As
a consequence, free cash drained into acquisitions. In the 1920s, mergers were
particularly prevalent in utilities and manufacturing when the associated forces
for expansion like the automobile and suburbanization drove the larger boom. In
addition to providing stock market cash through loans, free cash contributed to
the stock bubble of the decade through acquisition premiums accorded to targeted
firms. Free cash also contributed to the manic psychology accorded to the prospect
that any stock purchase might soon be a target. Willard L. Thorp noted that for
the 1920s decade a major factor was “undoubtedly the large profits which many
concerns have made during the period of expansion . . . It is not surprising that
the expansiveness of the businessman during periods of prosperity often expresses
itself in the merger movement and large business organizations.”9
8 Prologue and preview
The 1920s was the first boom superimposed on quasi-monopoly foundations,
established earlier in the Great Merger Wave of 1895–1904. Utilizing an analysis
first employed by Thorstein Veblen, I explore in Chapter 5 how this transforma-
tion into monopoly pricing power split apart a new discounted stream valuation
of capital from a more traditional form of capital valuation based on replacement
costs. The replacement valuation of capital descended from earlier competitive
conditions. In Veblen’s analysis, the higher valuations accorded to firms with
monopoly power indicated their ability to restrict production and investment.
These higher valuations also registered the speculative excesses that were to blow
up in 1929.
In the prosperity after World War II, Veblen’s dichotomization of capital
valuation—expressed as the ratio between stock valuation and replacement cost
(Tobin’s Q)—served as the basis of an investment theory. Rather than being a
simple indicator of monopoly power, higher Qs would allegedly drive investment
ahead. Entrepreneurs and existing firms could reap stock gains by producing new
assets and selling them on the stock market. I show that Tobin’s Q theory fails a
basic empirical test in reference to firms’ choice of expansion between mergers
and investment. I formulate a new theory of mergers based on relative valuation
and show that when a higher distribution of income flows towards capital the
value of older capital acquired through mergers rises relative to new investment.
This accords well with a free cash theory of mergers. Extra cash means extra
monetary means for consolidation. This result also suggests a tie-in between stag-
nation of investment, stock market gains and wealth inequality. Monies flowing
towards mergers are monies flowing towards owners of targeted firms, who, in
respect of existing fact, are disproportionately wealthy. And so the great circle:
higher income inequality—when returns to capital expand relative to output—
drives wealth inequality.
In Chapter 6, I discuss the declining growth rate of investment dating from
the late 1960s and relate this stagnation to the post-WWII oligopoly-stagnation
theses of Joseph Steindl, Paul Baran and Paul Sweezy. These theses hark back
to the monopoly-stagnation theses of Hobson and Veblen. Along with oligopoly-
stagnation theorists, I argue that the most recent stagnation is the result of long-term
forces. In turn, I examine the simulative impact of both government and consumer
debt and mathematically derive a neo-Kaleckian model that helps explain the
post-WWII rise of government and consumer deficit spending, free cash and its
speculative effluent. Government deficits are understood as a response to the mas-
sive lowering of taxes on the wealthy and the need for stimulation under stagnant
investment growth. Consumer debt is understood as a predictable response to a
flattening of wages, induced by a very large decline in manufacturing employment,
stagnant investment growth and the globalization of production.
In light of the U.S. multinationals’ expansion of the last half century, I argue in
Chapter 7 that Kalecki’s specification of free cash, deficit spending and the trade
balance needs a major reformulation. For the period prior to World War II and imme-
diately thereafter, U.S. export surpluses created free cash in the way that Kalecki
had formulated. However, unlike this earlier period where trade predominated,
Prologue and preview 9
multinational production and use of import supply lines are now the dominant ways
in which large firms seek out foreign markets and generate cash. In the absence
of the cash-generating domestic deficits of the U.S. government and private par-
ties, the large and growing trade deficits of the last forty years would have cut into
domestic free cash. But with enlarged and growing cash flows generated through
deficit spending, cutbacks on investment due to multinational production and use
of imports may actually have expanded free cash aggregates over and above the
levels that would have otherwise obtained. I argue that this multinational genera-
tion of free cash is structurally located and has been (and is now) largely immune to
exchange-rate declines in the value of the dollar.
The simultaneous rise of deficit spending in all its forms and the offshoring of
production and investment allows for understanding the recent rise in free cash.
As free cash provides the wherewithal for mergers, such a composite also allows
for an understanding of the increasing concentration of industry and monopoly
power associated with the recent stagnation of corporate growth.
Chapter 8 deals with the recent rise of inequality of income and wealth and
shows how free cash spillage gives additional credence to Thomas Piketty’s
thesis relating inequality to the capital/output ratio and the rate of return on
capital. The neo-Kaleckian model is put to additional use in showing how defi-
cit spending of all types is spilled into the stock market, expanding inequality
while at the same time lowering rates of return on equity, interest rates and
increasing the prices of speculative assets. As these lowered interest rates were
a primary factor in generating the most recent housing bubble, a neo-Kaleckian
understanding allows additional insight into the Great Recession commencing
in the latter part of 2007.
The final chapter argues for a larger governmental role in the investment
process. The chapter illustrates the case with short sketches of how government
investment in health and energy could significantly raise the standard of liv-
ing of people while simultaneously providing for additional employment and
security. Following on John Kenneth Galbraith’s understanding that human
“needs” should be distinguished from “wants,” I advocate government invest-
ment targeting the satisfaction of “needs.” With such targeting, human welfare
would not depend upon the magnitude of growth but rather its direction. The
present ongoing drumbeat for enlarged growth reflects the view that existing
investment patterns are not to be altered; indeed, given the legacy assets of
major corporations, such patterns will not be altered unless the government
redirects the general course. Under existing arrangements, enlarged growth is
the only mechanism that can trickle down to sustain employment and welfare.
I argue that with public investment directed towards human needs, a slowing
down of the rate of growth would not only be compatible with an expansion of
human welfare but would also allow for an ecologically sound economy. I argue
too that such government direction over the investment process would be best
accomplished with high taxes on the wealthy. Such taxes could not only finance
a better national economy but would simultaneously fight inequality and claim
the free cash that drives speculation.
10 Prologue and preview
In reference to health, I propose a parallel government health system comprised
of tuition-subsidized medical schools, government pharmaceutical establishments,
and a partial buyout of existing hospital facilities. Buyouts of hospitals and other
health facilities would minimize political opposition and should be employed
when possible. A parallel government health system need not replace the exist-
ing for-profit system but would induce competition that would lower health costs
across the board. The federal government has the financial wherewithal to carry
this project forward. Most importantly, health, along with food and shelter, are
recognized to be at the base of the needs structure. To ration health in accordance
with income—as is done presently—is as unnecessary as it is debasing.
In reference to energy, I propose a government buyout of vested interests to
facilitate a national grid freed from overlapping jurisdictions and devoted to solar
energy. As the fuel is free, solar energy could totally revamp the growth pro-
cess. Applied to the aging railroad systems of the U.S. and to newly fabricated
mass transit systems, solar energy would cheapen transportation costs and allow
expanded production in areas now characterized as industrial wastelands. In con-
trast to the present situation where the migratory displacement of labor towards
new job hubs devastates existing communities, bringing jobs to people would
allow communities to be rehabilitated and preserved. Needless to say, massive
solar networks would move society towards sustainability and ecological health.
A final comment: apart from a discussion surrounding J.A. Hobson’s early the-
sis of imperialism and the multinational dimension of U.S. production, the book
focuses almost exclusively on the U.S. economy. It should be noted, however,
that the recent slowdown of U.S. growth finds an overseas parallel in the vast bulk
of OECD countries. The U.S. falling tax rates on the wealthy also finds an over-
seas parallel. Whether recent U.S. free cash expansion finds a global counterpart
is a question still to be answered.
In reference to the development of inequality, the present book’s U.S. focus
leaves major gaps. Financial flows across borders—amounting to trillions of
dollars a day—have generated a super-large speculative arena and a new con-
centration of global wealth. Some have begun the trek of understanding this new
globalization of financial gain and the global divergence of income and wealth.10
Others will certainly follow.
In reference to government investment processes related to needs, there is the
further question of agency—the question of how to politically confront the massive
inertia and resistance of propertied interests and others committed to a markets-
only understanding of how a modern economy should work. This is indeed a gap.
I have no ready answers. Proposals directed towards health and energy, however,
do take up those industries that would have the most extensive implications for
enhancing human welfare. Accordingly, the possible engagement of large numbers
of people in advocacy for such change is greater in these critical industries than
in others. Certainly, the argument for government production is most easily made
when the implications for enhancing human betterment is maximal.
The markets for goods and services related to “wants”—particularly the
“higher wants” relating to ostentatious automobiles, luxurious homes, jewelry
Prologue and preview 11
and the like—would be shrunk if sufficiently high taxes were employed on
exorbitant wealth and high incomes. Such shrinkage would have the adventi-
tious consequence of freeing up resources that could be directed towards basic
human needs.
Notes
1 See the discussion in Evsey D. Domar, 1957, especially Chapter 5. In the simplest
model, the capacity to produce depends proportionately on the capital stock, so that
changes in capacity depend proportionately on changes in the capital stock, or lev-
els of investment. In contrast, changes in the ability to buy depend on the Keynesian
multiplier multiplied by changes in investment, or the change in the change of the
capital stock. For changes in the ability to buy to equilibrate with changes in capacity,
investment growth would have to be proportional to the saving/income ratio multi-
plied by the capacity/capital stock ratio. Expansion of the saving/income ratio—in
rough measure the expansion of gross profits to the total economy—and the growth
of more efficient capital—reflected in a rise in the capacity/capital stock ratio require
a faster rate of investment growth to avoid excess capacity. Such a rigid specification
of growth requirements gives at least a partial understanding of why under-utilized
capacity might well be normal and why the economy needs government stabilization
measures designed to expand purchasing power.
2 Total fixed non-residential business investment from the Department of Commerce;
corporate investment from the Federal Reserve, Flow of Funds Accounts. Subtraction
of the latter from the former allows a calculation of non-corporate business investment.
3 See endnote 2; number of corporations specified are “C” corporations. “S” corpora-
tions make up close to 4 million firms.
4 In 2016, undistributed gross profits (retained earnings plus depreciation changes) were
almost twice the gross saving of households and institutions. As saving from dividends
derive from gross corporate profit, this approximate two-fold difference should be con-
sidered a conservative estimate (table 5.1, Department of Commerce).
5 Differing estimates depend on various methodologies. Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel
Zucman (2016) cite the higher figure; Jesse Bricker et. al. (2016) cite the lower.
6 Like other conceptions that misguide inquiry, this understanding is not entirely false.
Wealthy families do have personal savings and can, as individual entities, sell off stock
to others. Today, consumption is the central core of macroeconomic theory, not the
pursuit of profit. In the simplest model, consumption is functionally related to the
level of income. Investment, government spending and net exports are understood as
“exogenous.” More complex models allow investment to be determined by income
and the interest rate. Equilibrium is established when saving and investment equili-
brate. The categories of consumption investment, government and net exports allow a
separate discussion and categorization of each, leading the student of economics to the
taxonomical conclusion that the economy is indeed a complex arrangement of interde-
pendent economic items.
7 A full accounting of alleged government oversteps can be found in Milton and Rose
Friedman’s Free to Choose, 1980.
8 Jensen was interested in various industries and firms, not the macro economy. In
Jensen’s definition, free cash was monies left over after capital expenditures, where
capital expenditures were not necessarily confined to new investment propelling
growth. Free cash, as used in the current book, is calculated only in reference to new
investment.
9 Cited in Reid, 1968, p. 67.
10 See, for example, Galbraith, 2008, 2012; Thompson, 2008; Stiglitz, 2015.
12 Prologue and preview
References
Bricker, Jesse, Alice Henriques, Jacob Krimmel and John Sabelhaus, “Measuring Income
and Wealth at the Top Using Administrative and Survey Data,” Brookings Papers on
Economic Activity, Spring 2016.
Caruso, Anthony, “Statistics of U.S. Businesses: Employment and Payroll Summary
2012,” U.S. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration, U.S.
Census Bureau, February 2015.
Domar, Evsey, D. Essays in the Theory of Economic Growth, Oxford University Press,
New York and Oxford, 1957.
Friedman, Milton and Rose Friedman, Free to Choose: A Personal Statement, Harcourt
Brace Jovanovich, New York and London, 1980.
Galbraith, James K. Inequality and Instability: A Study of the World Economy Just Before
the Great Crisis, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2012.
Galbraith, James K. “Global Inequality and Global Macro Economics,” in Global
Inequality, edited by David Held and Ayse Jata, Polity Press, Cambridge, 2008,
pp. 148–175.
Grullon, Gustavo, John Hund and James P. Weston, “Concentrating on Q and Cash Flow,”
Journal of Financial Intermediation, Vol. 30, Issue C, 2018, pp. 1–15.
Heilbroner, Robert L. The Nature and Logic of Capitalism, W.W. Norton & Co., New
York and London, 1985.
Jensen, Michael, “Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance and Takeovers,”
American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 1986, pp. 322–329.
Kennickell, Arthur, “Ponds and Streams: Wealth and Income in the U.S., 1989 to 2007,”
working paper, Board of Governors, January 7, 2009.
Keynes, John Maynard, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, Harcourt,
Brace Jovanovich, New York, [1936] 1964.
Kindleberger, Charles P., The World in Depression, 1929–1939, University of California
Press, Berkeley and Los Angeles, 1973.
Medlen, Craig, “Galbraith Preference Mappings: Needs and Want, Evidence from the 2005
Budget Study, Notes and Communications,” Journal of Economic Issues, Vol. XLII,
No. 3, September 2008, pp. 853–862.
Reid, Samuel Richardson, Mergers, Managers, and the Economy, McGraw-Hill Book
Company, New York, 1968.
Saez, Emmanuel and Gabriel Zucman, “Wealth Inequality in the United States since 1913:
Evidence from Capitalized Income Tax Data,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.
131, No. 2, 2016, pp. 519–578.
Skidelsky, Robert, John Maynard Keynes, The Economist as Savior, 1920–1937, Penguin
Books, New York, 1995.
Soule, George, The Prosperity Decade: From War to Depression 1917–1929, M.E. Sharpe,
Inc., New York, [1947] 1975.
Stiglitz, Joseph E., The Great Divide: Unequal Societies and What We Can Do About
Them, W.W. Norton & Co., New York and London, 2015.
Thompson, Grahame F. “Global Inequality, the ‘Great Divergence’ and the Supranational
Regionalization,” in Global Inequality, edited by David Held and Ayse Kaya, Polity
Press, Cambridge, 2008, pp. 176–203.
Thorp, Willard L., “The Persistence of the Merger Movement,” pp. 74–89, American
Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings of the Forty-third Annual Meeting, Vol.
XXI, No. 1, March 1931.
2 Michal Kalecki’s derivation
of free cash
Free cash studies have inevitably discussed inherent limits on new capital
expenditures relative to cash generated. Such studies have focused mainly on
mergers and acquisitions in particular historical periods, relating industrial for-
mations to methods of financing.1
At a macro level, however, free cash explanations surrounding specific indus-
trial and historical considerations appear unduly narrow, particularly in light of
the ubiquitous spread of oligopoly formations across the economy and across
time. For as long as growth proceeds upwards, the monopoly power invested
in oligopolistic formations will tend to generate excess cash. Monopoly pricing
power allows high returns. Monopolistic pricing power also involves restriction
of production and investment in support of administered prices and high markups.
At least since the 1920s, oligopoly formations exhibiting monopoly pricing power
have permeated virtually the whole of the economy outside of residential con-
struction, trade in services and the ground floor of agriculture.2 In consequence,
a case-by-case explanation of free cash generation can only fall short in explain-
ing how aggregate totals of free cash expand and how such expansion furthers
merger activity and capital spillage in general.
The key to understanding the macro-generation of aggregate free cash totals
surrounds not just the oligopoly formations of modern industry, but the con-
sumption level of the capitalist class and the deficit spending of both government
and private parties. In grappling with understanding the Great Depression of the
1930s, Michal Kalecki was the first to express this insight in reference to gov-
ernment deficits. He noted that “A budget deficit has an effect similar to that of
an export surplus. It . . . permits profits to increase above the level determined by
private investment and capitalists’ consumption” (Kalecki, [1933] 1971, p. 85).
During the Depression, merger and speculative activity came to a near-halt. So
Kalecki understandably did not foresee the full importance of free cash for under-
standing mergers and speculative activity. In Kalecki’s view, government deficits
provided both remedial sustenance through additional purchasing power and an
expansion of profits that might be directed, under favorable circumstances, towards
additional investment.
14 Michal Kalecki’s derivation of free cash
Reasoning from the simplest possible thought experiment, Kalecki first
assumed a closed economy without government or trade and with the working
class consuming all of the wage bill:
Production (Y) consists of consumption (C), divided between workers’
consumption (Cw) and capitalists consumption (Cπ) and investment (I), which gen-
erates income divided between gross profit (profits (π)+ depreciation (Dep)) and
(wages (W)). Under the assumption that all workers’ wages are consumed (W = Cw):
(1) Y = Cw + Cπ + I = W + (π + Dep) = W + Cπ + I
Or: (1a) π + Dep = Cπ + I
This latter identity does not distinguish between cause and effect. But Kalecki
reasoned that capitalists cannot determine their profit. But they can make deci-
sions on investment and consumption and if current gross profits are inadequate
to finance these decisions, these decisions can still be financed through debt.
Accordingly, “capitalists earn what they spend” (Feiwel, 1977, p. 85).
This last point deserves emphasis. Total output (Y) as in (1) above depicts the
division of income into its components, with the capitalists’ share arising out of
their behavioral (causal) activity. Consequently, Kalecki transforms what would
otherwise be just an identity into a short-term model.
From (1a), it is apparent that a certain amount of capitalists’ consumption will
be mirrored by an exact amount of Free Cash, defined narrowly as (π + Dep – I).
Capitalists’ consumption thus provides aggregate excess cash for firms to dispose
of or to be returned in funding the consumption.
Kalecki extended the concept of gross profit generation by showing that in
addition to investment, government deficit spending and export surpluses (modi-
fied here as a positive Current Account3) allow for both the expansion of aggregate
gross profits and the generation of gross profits in excess of new investment and
capitalists’ consumption.4 To show this, modify (1) above to include government
expenditures financed through taxes (T) and the fiscal deficit (FD) and the Current
Account (CA) and allow W* and (π +Dep)* to be after-tax receipts of workers and
capitalists respectively.
(2) Y = Cw + Cπ + I + T + FD + CA = W* + (π + Dep)* + T
Simplifying and again noting the assumption that workers consume all their
income. (i.e. Cw = W*),
Cw + Cπ + I + FD + CA = W* + (π + Dep)*
(2a) (π + Dep)* = Cπ + I + FD + CA
To summarize: “capitalists earn what they spend” plus the spending associated
with government deficits and the current account. Note that a negative current
account subtracts from profits.
Michal Kalecki’s derivation of free cash 15
We can rearrange (2a) to arrive at Free Cash, defined in this model as net of
corporate taxes:
Investment is self-funding
The Kaleckian analysis above is an extended and class-based version of the
Keynesian propositions that investment is self-funding and that government
deficits help stabilize an unstable economy. Kalecki and Keynes worked inde-
pendently so it should not be thought that Kalecki simply modified Keynes’s
analysis. But in showing that investment creates gross savings (the lion’s share
of saving is either gross profit (profits plus depreciation) or derives from gross
profit through security payouts), both theorists reversed the causal sequence of
the saving-investment process. This reversal of causality qualifies as the most
important advance in comprehending the saving-investment process at the aggre-
gate level under conditions of excess capacity. In contrast to the micro-view of the
firm where investment derives from gross profits (saving) and its future prospects,
Keynes and Kalecki understood that at the macro-level of an underemployed
economy, investment created the saving necessary to fund the investment.
The circumstances of the Great Depression gave birth to this new under-
standing. Saving could only be realized if there was sufficient income to save.
Investment drove the economy and the growth of income. In consequence, high
investment was one with high incomes and thereby high saving. In Keynes’s cri-
tique of the classics, Keynes maintained that the causal presumption of savings
Michal Kalecki’s derivation of free cash 17
driving investment required an unwarranted assumption that resources of labor
and capital were fully utilized. Such an assumption meant that every “decline in
consumption meant an increase in investment to absorb the labor released. The
rate of investment is then governed by the desire of the community to save.” But
with underutilized resources, “It is the rate of investment which governs the rate
of saving and not vice versa” (Robinson, [1942] 1991, pp. 65–66).
In addition to showing how investment is self-funding, Kalecki’s formula-
tion of free cash also shows how capitalists’ consumption could be self-funding
through payouts in dividends and interest. As shown by the free cash formu-
lations in both (1a) and (2b), a growing level of capitalists’ consumption will
appear on the income statements of businesses as an enlargement of gross profits
in excess of new investment. This excess cash is now available to fund the high
level of capitalists’ consumption from which the free cash derives. This pos-
sibility of consumption funding does not mean that capitalists’ consumption is
necessarily financed through free cash, or that free cash is disgorged towards
dividends and interest in any exact measure. Such finance might well involve
other sources such as debt. In addition to interest and dividends, free cash might
well be spilled in merger activity, or be available for capital export, or, in more
recent decades, spilled in stock repurchases. As businesses can use free cash as
an indicator of economic health and collateral for debt, free cash generation also
permits cash spillage in excess of free cash through debt financing. As will be
shown in Chapter 8, the simultaneous rise of free cash and debt has been particu-
larly prevalent in recent decades.
The self-funding nature of investment and consumption is instructive in terms
of depression economics. It is also instructive in clarifying the relationship of
monopoly power and the associated cash making up the bulk of saving. In con-
trast to the price competition of the mid-nineteenth century, the later trusts and
monopoly structures dating from the latter part of that century aimed to increase
profits (saving) by crimping production and investment. Unlike the microeco-
nomics of the firm whereby investment restriction acts to maintain monopoly
pricing and profit, at the macro level, such crimping of investment stifles growth
and profit. The fallacy of composition obtains. Individual monopolies and oli-
gopolistic structures exhibiting monopoly pricing power can grow profits while
restricting investment if the overall economy grows. But if the aggregate econ-
omy is infused with monopoly power, both investment and profits (saving) would
tend to decline along with the economy. Given Keynes’s reputation as the main
theorist of the Great Depression, it is somewhat ironic that he never inquired into
how the industrial structure might bring on stagnation. Kalecki came closer to the
mark by relating the “degree of monopoly” to the division of income, whereby an
expansion of monopoly led to an expansion of profits and investment slowdown
([1952] 2009, pp. 11–41).7
In relating spending propensities to the class division of income, the Kaleckian
version of the investment-driven savings process constituted a distinct improve-
ment over that of Keynes. By pointing to the high levels of worker consumption
and the discretionary nature of capitalist investment, Kalecki’s analysis pointed
18 Michal Kalecki’s derivation of free cash
to how planned investment could sustain the economy, without the uncertain-
ties associated with private accumulation.8 No longer dependent on the prospects
and risks attendant to obtaining private profit, planned investment could main-
tain economic growth without interruption. Keynes’s analysis pointed in the same
direction, particularly in Chapter 12 of the General Theory where he discusses the
precariousness of assessing future investment prospects under a “State of Long-
Term Expectation.” But Keynes himself could never embrace a socialist outcome
other than to suggest that if taxation and monetary policy and “perhaps other
measures” failed, “a somewhat comprehensive socialization of investment will
prove the only means of securing an approximation to full employment.” This
offhand remark was accompanied by the proviso that a quasi-socialist outcome
would be a last-ditch measure and would not preclude “all manner of compromises
and of devices by which public authority will co-operate with private initiative”
(Keynes, [1936] 1964, p. 378).
Kalecki’s sharp-edged notion that consumption and purchasing power would
expand with a redistribution of income towards wages was also implicated in
Keynes’s analysis. But Keynes never emphasized this aspect of his theory.
Keynes introduced an aggregate “propensity to consume” that would decline with
expanded income across the entire economy. But in contrast to the Kaleckian
version of class-based consumption where wages were assuredly spent, Keynes
provided his famous psychological law rooted in the “community”: “that when
aggregate real income is increased aggregate consumption is increased but not so
much as income” (Keynes, [1936] 1964, p. 27). This diminishing “propensity to
consume” with income certainly suggests the possibility of a class-based analysis,
with the aggregate propensity to consume enlarged with an increased wage bill
relative to gross profits and assorted incomes flowing into the upper classes. But
by framing the “propensity to consume” in light of the whole economy, Keynes’s
analysis bypassed any explicit analysis of the distribution of income and its macro-
implications. This omission is glaring in light of Keynes’s multiplier analysis. As
the power of the multiplier effect depends critically on the propensity to consume,
one might have expected Keynes to recommend an income redistribution towards
wages in the service of expanding the multiplier. But no such recommendations
are to be found in Keynes’s work.
Apart from understanding how government deficits can create free cash, the
Kaleckian identity (2b) is important for understanding how a positive current
account (Kalecki’s “export surplus”) relates to foreign debt. A positive cur-
rent account means that the world owes the “export surplus” country. Such a
surplus thus involves foreign debt. A country’s imports are another’s exports.
So any exclusive trade among the advanced world producing largely substitut-
able products would simply be a “beggar-thy-neighbor” war, with each nation
attempting to expand production and profits at the expense of the other. Net
importers would arrive at debtor status as a derivative of their inability to com-
pete. However, with colonialism or any type of foreign domination of others,
a rich developed country can put debt on the colonial sphere, so as to gener-
ate a positive current account with that colonial sphere. So, in this case, cause
Michal Kalecki’s derivation of free cash 19
and effect are reversed—instead of positive current accounts causing external
debt, external debt can lead to positive current accounts. Kalecki expressed this
important idea without elaboration, no doubt because he saw that
Kalecki never fully examined the empire-building that resulted in World War I
and which spilled over into the World War II. But his reference to the “classical
source” of “external” profits certainly referred to the territorial expansion by the
European powers and the United States.
To the generation of “external” profits and its relationship to free cash we now
turn to J.A. Hobson’s theory of imperialism. Of necessity, this inquiry will be
quite limited in scope, relating Hobson’s theory of imperialism to the maldistribu-
tion of wealth and income within the advanced capitalist spheres, the monopoloid
structures within modern capitalism, and the tendency to depression arising out
of these monopoloid structures. Hobson’s analysis of a tendency to depression is
particularly important. His analysis was, as Keynes acknowledged in a critique
contained within the General Theory, prefatory to Keynes’s own work.9 As will
be shown, however, Keynes edited out of his own analysis the Hobsonian thesis
of how monopoly related to imperialism. Keynes also understood Hobson’s the-
ory as an “underconsumption” theory as opposed to an “underinvestment theory”
due to monopoly power.
Notes
1 The merger wave of the 1920s involved a great deal of horizontal mergers that were
largely carried out by second-tier firms. Dominant firms left over from the Great Merger
Wave were under the watchful eye of the Justice Department. The thinking at the time
was that consolidation at a secondary level might allow expanded competition with the
giants (Stigler, 1950). A similar anti-trust concern influenced the conglomerate merger
wave of the 1960s. Conglomeration would expand overall concentration, but the octopus
legs of the conglomerates tended to lessen concentration ratios in each industry entered.
Free cash, however, could explain a large part of the 1960s merger wave (Mueller,
1969). In the buyout wave of the 1980s, high amounts of leverage were associated with
large amounts of free cash. Such leverage justified its existence by directing free cash
outward from acquiring corporations that could not use it toward target corporations that
could. With debt finance, interest on bonds substituted for dividends with the advantage
that interest paid reduced corporate taxes. By the late 1980s, debt-financed mergers left
a third of them bankrupt (Holmstrom and Kaplan, 2001, p. 128). Over recent decades,
banking consolidations can be partially explained by the expansion of finance in general
and the proliferation of non-financial firms like General Electric and the great auto firms
into financial services.
20 Michal Kalecki’s derivation of free cash
2 I say “ground floor” because while crops and farms often involve thousands of firms and
parties, the narrows of food distributors, seeds, pesticides and agricultural equipment are
largely dominated by oligopoly structures.
3 The current account deals with exports and imports of goods and services, but also with
income and transfer remittances.
4 The mathematics in this section follows the logic of Kalecki, [1965] 2009, pp. 45–51.
5 See, for example, Kalecki, “A Theorem on Technical Process,” [1941] 1991.
6 Kalecki credits M. Breit for the basic formulation of the “Principle of Increasing Risk”
(Kalecki, [1937] 1990, p. 289).
7 The Keynesian revolution in thought surrounding the Great Depression came at the same
time as theories of imperfect completion and oligopoly were being developed. For stag-
nation theorists like Paul Baran and Paul Sweezy, the key to situating the Keynesian
revolution in history was to understand how the Depression related to the restrictionist
tendencies of monopoly power. For clarifying remarks relating monopoly power to the
Keynesian revolution, see Paul Sweezy ([1963] 1964, pp. 305–314); Baran and Sweezy
(1966, pp. 54–58).
8 Joan Robinson, a friend of Kalecki, once noted that “The planning of investment is
the key to economic control.” Her reference was both to the former Yugoslavia and, in
a somewhat too optimistic assessment, the “capitalist countries” that “now accept the
necessity for planning” (Robinson, 1969, p. 186).
9 In a listing of just Hobson’s ‘most important works,’ G.D.H. Cole (1940) lists forty
books that Hobson wrote, not including the numerous works that Hobson contributed to
various journals. Hobson’s writings treat not just strictly economic themes, but social,
political and psychological issues dealing with whole realms of culture, political accom-
modation and wars. Among a variety of other topics, Hobson wrote on the Boer War, the
Egyptian question relating to the Suez Canal and the cotton imports flowing into Britain,
the relationship of India and the Dominions to the larger Empire, the inter-imperialism
of major powers in relation to China and South Africa, the aftermath of World War I,
the elements making for progressive taxation and the difficult question of how tropical
resources and foodstuffs could be garnered without imperialism. For readers interested
in a recent and detailed overview of Hobson’s development over time as well as the
extensive literature surrounding Hobson’s views to those of others, consult Cain (2002).
References
Baran, Paul and Paul Sweezy, Monopoly Capital, Monthly Review Press, New York, 1966.
Cain, P.J., Hobson and Imperialism: Radicalism, New Liberalism, and Finance 1887–1938,
Oxford University Press, Oxford, New York, 2002.
Cole, G.D.H., “Obituary: J.A. Hobson,” The Economic Journal, Vol. 50, No. 198/199,
June–September 1940, pp. 347–360. Published by Wiley on behalf of the Royal
Economic Society.
Feiwel, George R., The Intellectual Capital of Michal Kalecki, University of Tennessee
Press, Knoxville, 1977.
Holmstrom, Bengt and Steven N. Kaplan, “Corporate Governance and Merger Activity
in the United States: Making sense of the 1980s and 1990s,” Journal of Economic
Perspectives, Vol. 15, No. 2, Spring 2001, pp. 121–141.
Kalecki, Michal, Selected Essays on the Dynamics of the Capitalist Economy 1933–1970,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1971.
Kalecki, Michal, Collected Works of Michal Kalecki, Vol. 1, Clarendon Press, Oxford,
1990.
Kalecki, Michal, Collected Works of Michal Kalecki, Vol. II, Clarendon Press, Oxford,
1991.
Michal Kalecki’s derivation of free cash 21
Kalecki, Michal, Theory of Economic Dynamics, An Essay on Cyclical and Long-Run
Changes in Capitalist Economy, Monthly Review Press, New York, [1952] 2009.
Keynes, General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, Harvest/HBJ Book, Harcourt
Brace Jovanovich, San Diego, CA, New York and London, [1936] 1964.
Mott, Tracy, Kalecki’s Principle of Increasing Risk and Keynesian Economics, Routledge
Studies in the History of Economics, Taylor and Francis, New York and Oxford, 2010.
Mueller, Dennis, “A Theory of Conglomerate Mergers,” Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Vol. LXXXIII, No. 4, November 1969, pp. 643–659.
Robinson, Joan, An Essay on Marxian Economics, Orion Editions arranged with the
Macmillan Press, Ltd., Philadelphia, PA, [1942] 1991.
Robinson, Joan, “Socialist Affluence,” in Socialism, Capitalism & Economic Growth,
edited by C.H. Feinstein, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1969.
Stigler, George J. “Monopoly and Oligopoly by Merger,” The American Economic Review,
Papers and Proceedings, May 1950, Vol. XL, No. 2, pp. 23–34.
Sweezy, Paul, “The First Quarter Century,” in Keynes General Theory: Reports of Three
Decades, edited by Robert Lekachman, St. Martin’s Press, Macmillan & Co. Ltd., New
York and London, [1963] 1964.
3 Hobson’s choice
Free cash export or domestic redistribution
Today, it is rare to hear a defense of outsized wealth and income inequality. But
when a defense is mounted, it typically runs along lines familiar to persons living
one hundred years ago. Superior merit is sometimes invoked, as tautologically
evidenced by market outcomes or by asserting natural inequalities as to talent,
brains and ambitions. Much less often and with much less credence, such merit
is subliminally understood to be mysteriously transferable from inherited wealth.
Most often, however, the defense runs along functional lines. At the level of the
individual or firm, investment derives from savings. Consequently, there must
be an economic class sufficiently wealthy so as to abstain from the consump-
tion of its total income. Transforming this necessary condition into a larger virtue
proceeds by way of an assessment that investment prospects are large and a con-
viction that in regard to private saving there can be no such thing as too much. The
nineteenth century provides the benchmark. In a famous passage in the Economic
Consequences of the Peace, Keynes wrote that
Keynes was outlining not just the facts of inequality but its justification. Growth
depended on a “double bluff or deception.” The mass of the people would, through
deference to authority or otherwise, tolerate a small portion of the “cake,” on the
understanding that the larger part of the cake would accrue to the capitalist class
that would invest. The acquiescence of the masses mirrored an understanding
that all persons could benefit from growth. As Keynes put it, “The duty of ‘sav-
ing’ became nine-tenths of virtue and the growth of the cake the object of true
religion” (p. 20).
Hobson’s choice 23
Keynes’s description of nineteenth-century capital accumulation depicted
a time when profitable prospects brought in “immense accumulations of fixed
capital” (p. 19). In emphasizing the point, Keynes compared the “railways of the
world” to the pyramids of Egypt, and obliquely referred to ancillary investments
surrounding the conversion of sail to coal power and the development of factories
based on steam (p. 19). Keynes also noted that the export of European capital to
the world allowed the import of cheap food from North America and assorted
materials and resources that sponsored domestic development. Although Keynes
did not explicitly discuss the larger colonial question, he did mention that the
interest receipts of exported capital helped the reinvestment process to allow
as a reserve . . . against the less happy day when the industrial labor of Europe
could no longer purchase on such easy terms the produce of other continents,
and when the due balance would be threatened between its historical civiliza-
tions and the multiplying races of other climates and environments. Thus the
whole of the European races tended to benefit alike from the development
of new resources whether they pursued their culture at home or adventured
it abroad.
(pp. 22–23, emphasis added)
In noting the benefits accruing to industrial labor through the export of capi-
tal, these early writings of Keynes argued that the inequality surrounding the
saving-investment process benefited the whole of society. Keynes’s optimistic
assessment could be challenged on several levels. Keynes’s depiction avoided
any discussion of the territorial captivity of native peoples and the associated
violence that maintained imperial empires. That capital export might benefit
“the whole of the European races” meant that sections of labor could be (and
would be) ideologically absorbed to maintain their place within the capital-
ist orbit. It was in this vein that Lenin comprehended how the “super profits”
acquired through the export of capital permitted the “bribery” of a new labor
aristocracy (Lenin, [1917] 2011). Keynes never discussed the ideological
absorption of the proletariat into the social fabric of capitalism. But given
Keynes’s subsequent revulsion against the Bolshevik experiment and his
belief that the given social order was the only socially acceptable order avail-
able, such ideological absorption was fully in line with his desire for social
maintenance and peace. In an essay written five years after The Economic
Consequences of the Peace, Keynes wrote that “the Class war will find me
on the side of the educated bourgeoisie” (Keynes, [1925] 1963, p. 324; origi-
nal emphasis). For Keynes—ever the pragmatist—historical circumstances
changed policy prescriptions; but for the nineteenth century, Keynes was fully
convinced that capital export served the social order taken as a whole.
Others would register exception. Apart from Marxists, like Lenin, Nikolai
Bukharin and Rosa Luxemburg, there were a variety of reformist critics of capital
export who suggested that territorial expansion and a concomitant development of
finance and commerce in the hinterland was just one way—and a depraved way—of
24 Hobson’s choice
achieving a higher level of material welfare.1 Of these critics, John Atkinson Hobson
was the most noteworthy. In Imperialism ([1902] 1965), Hobson distinguished
between the older colonial structures and the new imperial reach that absorbed
large areas of newly acquired lands that were inhospitable to European culture
and commerce. Hobson argued that if only the mal-distribution of income within
Europe was rectified in favor of the lower classes, domestically expanded mar-
kets could substitute for territorial expansion. Higher wages would feed mass
consumption power and encourage larger amounts of investment. After first
detailing the extensive growth of European domination over new territories in
the latter part of the nineteenth century and minimizing or dismissing explana-
tory hypotheses such as extended commercial advantage and population growth
that would account for such expansion, Hobson came to the conclusion that
the wealthy had much too much wealth and income. Unable to profitably dis-
pose of their excess saving on domestic investment due to the domestic poverty
of the general population, and unable to consume enough themselves to main-
tain demand, the wealthy and their agents looked towards new domains for the
investment of surplus capital. As this capital could not be profitably invested
on the home front, such monies constituted free cash as measured by domestic
investment opportunities.
The natural outgrowth of too much inequality was a tendency to depression.
According to Hobson, the middle classes might well apportion their income in
accordance with the interest rate, but the very rich, who owned the large firms
and landed estates, could not possibly consume any additional income. Indeed,
the rejection of more consumption by the rich constituted “an instinctive rejec-
tion of the injurious effort to incorporate . . . surplus in . . . current expenditures”
(emphasis added). For Hobson, it was “likely that a large and growing proportion
of the total volume of saving in England and in the Western world . . . [was] . . .
of this order” (Hobson, 1914a, p. 100). Hobson’s formulation was rooted firmly
in the class structure and in the industrial matrix to which the class structure was
appended. Without foreign markets or a drastic restructuring of inequality that
would bolster enough consumption power, depression was in the offing.
Hobson thus turned Keynes’s justification of nineteenth-century inequality on
its head. This was the result not of corrected error but a shift forward in time and
a corresponding shift in historical context. As A.K. Cairncross notes:
In the middle of the nineteenth century the building of British railways and
towns took nearly the whole of Britain’s savings. A trickle of capital found
its way abroad, partly to finance railway-building on the Continent, partly in
commercial and banking ventures and partly in speculative loans to foreign
governments, generally in the Near East or in South America. It was not till
after 1870 that the trickle began to assume really formidable proportions and
the growth of capital came to centre on overseas development.
(Cairncross, [1953] 2015, p. 2)
Hobson’s choice 25
That the domestic absorption of savings prior to 1870, “took nearly the whole
of Britain’s savings,” suggests a petering out of domestic investment opportuni-
ties, leading to foreign outreach. This understanding receives additional support
when consideration is given to the sunk capital in traditional industries that could
only maintain profitability through new territorial expansion. Expanded foreign
investment centered primarily on steam transportation, both in railways and ships;
utilities, such as electric facilities, tramways and telegraph facilities, and other
infrastructure development, such as docks and harbors, mining, and materials of all
kinds (p. 2). Over the time period from 1870 to 1914, “Britain herself had invested
abroad about as much as her entire industrial and commercial capital, excluding
land and that one tenth of her national income came to her as interest on foreign
investments (p. 3).
This one-tenth of the national income meant that while capital exports were
large, the flow of derived income was even larger. In the period 1903–13, capital
export from Britain absorbed some 7 percent of British income (Kenwood and
Lougheed, 2001, p. 28). “Over the longer period between 1870 and 1914, Britain’s
net export of capital totaled 2,400 million [pounds]” (Sweezy, 1969. p. 194). But
in the same years, Sweezy writes, the sum total of “interest, dividends and other
remittances amounted to no less than 4,100 [pounds].”2 This generation of free
cash required larger and larger markets for its absorption. Hobson’s dilemma—
either expanded markets abroad or substantial redistribution of income towards
common people—was not relieved by expanded territorial acquisitions. The
British outreach towards new acquisitions put Britain on a treadmill whereby the
expansion of markets simply generated the need for more.
Hobson’s thesis is open to the critique that, apart from the white settler colo-
nies and dominions of Britain, the new territorial claims of the late nineteenth
century absorbed but a small fraction of the total capital export of Britain and the
advanced nations in general. But, as noted above, any futuristic understanding had
to anticipate places for further growth. Railroad mileage had largely peaked in
Britain around 1870. And although rail expansion had not yet peaked in Canada,
Australia, Argentina, Brazil and Mexico, they had certainly leveled off in the turn
to the twentieth century (Rostow, 1978, pp. 452, 458, 511, 494). As other nations
played industrial catch-up to Britain in the latter part of the nineteenth century,
it became increasingly difficult for Britain to export to more advanced nations
as production became largely substitutable. Consequently, a larger percentage of
British capital exports went to British Dominions, India and Latin America.
The export of British capital to the United States was also considerable, making
up roughly one-fourth to one-fifth of capital export from mid-century to World
War I (pp. 28–30). But even here, as shown most particularly in the substitution of
U.S. rail subscriptions for that of the British (Hobson, [1914b] 2012, pp. 152–153),
there was a displacement of British investment, anticipating the U.S.’s post-war
capital export position. Such displacement put additional pressure to obtain the
monetary receipts necessary for the procurement of U.S. production, particularly
26 Hobson’s choice
agricultural production. As Keynes had noted in reference to ample food imports
into Europe, capital exports allowed a “general reduction in the price of imports”
(Keynes, [1919] 1988, p. 7). Such reductions in wage goods permitted higher prof-
its, as employers could pay a lower wage than otherwise.
In addition, capital exports allowed expanded trade in general which bol-
stered home demand. Balance of trade figures show that apart from the United
States, France and Russia, British exports of goods to the Empire and Latin
America followed the pattern of India whereby exports consistently outpaced
imports (Cairncross, [1953] 2015, p. 189), if only by small amounts. This con-
trasted sharply with the general balance of merchandise trade that consistently
showed negative balances from the mid-1820s onward (Tiberi, 2005, pp. 34–38)
and which Hobson himself had recorded from 1870 to World War I (Hobson,
[1914b] 2012, p. 170). Moreover, in terms of cyclical ups and downs, capital
exports corresponded to Hobson’s understanding that foreign markets alleviated
the tendency to depression: “There is also plenty of evidence that it was foreign
rather than home investment that pulled Britain out of most depressions before
1914” (Cairncross, [1953] 2015, p. 188).
Capital export in general and territorial expansion in particular sustained
European growth. In the course of their duties, colonial administrators would
assume large administrative and military responsibilities that would protect
joint-stock investments in sponsoring rail, shipping and other infrastructure
facilities whose building and assembly would require additional investments
both in the hinterland and in Europe. Interest on colonial debt would be earned
by European imports from resource-rich colonial lands and flow back to finan-
ciers and the wealthy. Saturated rail and steel facilities within Europe would
find extended markets in the larger colonial and neo-colonial world.3 Shipping
facilities could expand to transport both exports of European product to the
protectorates and the imports necessary to pay service costs. The military appa-
ratus necessary to protect shipping and the artificial colonial lines drawn up by
European powers also absorbed savings, while providing military careers for
officers of prominent social standing. Those of ecclesiastical persuasion could
temporarily leave their domestic pulpits and find newly conquered foreign
peoples to convert.
Hobson would understand the parties attached to the new imperialism as
“parasites,” (Hobson, [1902] 1965, Ch. 4). But given the overarching context of
imperialist expansion, it was unclear as to whom would be exempt from Hobson’s
parasitic classification. In addition to the arms dealers and the military itself, and
the financiers and shippers and the great manufacturers geared to export, there
was the large proportion of the labor force devoted to trade. Hobson asserted
that the proportion of labor devoted to trade was only a fifth to one-sixth of the
total labor force including the portion of labor in ancillary trades (Hobson, [1902]
1965, p. 28). Hobson would minimize the importance of this very large ratio by
not only omitting Keynesian multiplier effects—of which he was apparently
unaware—but by suggesting that
Hobson’s choice 27
There is no necessary limit to the quantity of capital and labour that can be
employed in supplying the home markets, provided the effective demand for
the goods that are produced is so distributed that every increase of production
stimulates a corresponding increase of consumption.
(Hobson, [1902] 1965, p. 29)
granted all land required, free of expense for ninety-nine years, to companies
incorporated by Act of Parliament in England, and guaranteed interest, gener-
ally at 5 percent, upon the capital employed. The necessary stimulus to pri-
vate enterprise was thus applied, and by July 1858 seven distinct companies
were engaged in constructing lines under the guarantee system.
(p. 135)
For Hobson, colonialism, with all of its assorted ramifications, was a net liability.
As a British citizen, he argued that if the new hinterland was to be dominated by
imperialist forces, other nations should do it. Britain could maintain free trade and
by its shipping and commercial advantages, Britain could still maintain access to
the world and the products of others’ protectorates (Hobson, [1902] 1965, Ch. 5).
This reversion into nationalism was, for Hobson, a partial escape from his own
intellectual difficulties. He could never reconcile his belief that all of the world’s
resources should be available to all with the fact that many of these resources were
located in non-market societies not subject to conventional trade. Understandably,
he was quite unable to understand how the “art of self-governance” (European
style) and self-promoted trading relations could be developed by non-Western
cultures in any short period of time. This dilemma—in conjunction with his belief
that the world‘s resources needed to be developed—may explain why, in the
Economic Interpretation of Investment (1911), Hobson eventually came to under-
stand that “imperialism is a necessity, if transitory, stage on the way to democracy
and internationalism” (Cain, [1999] 2013, p. v).
The problem of underdevelopment helps also to explain why Hobson put
finance at the center of imperialist expansion. Newly acquired areas could not
engage in self-sustaining trade. Michal Kalecki’s comment, that the fight for “new
opportunities for [the] export of capital associated with the export of goods, can
be viewed as a drive for export surplus, the classical source of ‘external’ profits”
(Kalecki [1933] 1971, p. 85), puts the export of free cash and trade in a unified
association. But in the imperialist reach into a hostile world, such free cash export,
with state-sponsored military backup, must come first to establish and maintain
future trade. Hobson developed this finance thesis over time. But perhaps his best
sketch was contained in Democracy After the War ([1917] 2013) published during
the height of World War I. Unlike “traders,” who might be denied a certain market
and can turn to the next, financiers have a vested stake, which is a
fixed and lasting one . . . bound up with the general prosperity or failure of
the country. Their economic interest in that foreign country may be as great
as or greater than in their own, and what happens as to good or evil in that
country may be more important to them than anything likely to happen in
Hobson’s choice 29
their own. If, therefore, any action of their Government, any stroke of foreign
policy, can improve the security of that distant country, it improves their
securities, and even if a threat of war or an act of war is needed to obtain that
object, what matter? The people pay the cost with their lives and their money,
the investor and financier reap the gain.
(p. 83)
Notes
1 Bernard Porter (2008) provides an extensive summary treatment of various reformers
and a comparative treatment of their views to those of Hobson.
2 Sweezy calculated the total from figures tallied from A.K. Cairncross ([1953] 2015,
p. 180).
3 Hobson didn’t use the term “neo-colonial” and concentrated the bulk of his inquires on
formal territorial annexation. But nineteenth-century British penetration within Latin
America gave his formal theory additional credence.
4 These concerns took up a good deal of Hobson’s inquiries. He was convinced that the
resources of the world should be available to the whole world and developed by those
best able to develop them. But the lack of markets—or, more exactly, markets utilizing
money—in the vast bulk of the world begged the entire question of their development.
The view that imperialism was absolutely necessary for the development of non-market
societies was commonly espoused by the powerful. (See quotes of Cecil Rhodes and
Joseph Chamberlin, in Dutt, 1949, p. 22).
5 Keynes did not refer specifically to any of Hobson’s later works in the critique. The
Physiology of Industry was the only one of Hobson’s work in Keynes’s library at his death.
6 Hobson was on his deathbed when Keynes and he were engaged in their last correspon-
dence. Hobson was quite pleased that Keynes’s General Theory was now being read by
36 Hobson’s choice
a new generation. But even in this last correspondence, Hobson did not refer to his inqui-
ries into the industrial structure and how they might have enhanced Keynes’s theoretical
understanding of over-saving (Medlen, 2012, pp. 791–793).
7 In his later The Engineers and the Price System ([1921] 1990), Veblen ruminated on the
possibility of engineers directing production, “on the initiative and under the direction
of the country’s technicians, taking action in common and on a concerted plan.” The
“Vested Interests” would move over, not by “forcible dispossession” but “involuntarily
after the industrial situation gets quite beyond their control” (Veblen, [1921] 1990,
p. 132). This new order would put industry in the service of human welfare, not busi-
ness. Veblen, however, was never so optimistic to see this new order as other than a
low-probability outcome.
8 This turn to manufacturing predominance, however, did not extend to the export market.
Hobson himself noted that U.S. agricultural exports were over double that of manufac-
turing from 1890 to 1900 (Hobson, [1902] 1965, p. 79).
9 In 1875, fixed capital in British manufacturing was less than railway capital, but by this
time “most of the main-line railways were already in being, and from then on railway-
building normally absorbed smaller amounts of capital and, what was more important, a
smaller proportion of new capital” (Cairncross, [1953] 2015, p. 8).
References
Baran, Paul A. and Paul M. Sweezy, Monopoly Capital: An Essay on the American
Economic and Social Order, Monthly Review Press, New York, 1966.
Beaud, Michel, A History of Capitalism: 1500–2000, Monthly Review Press, New York,
[1981] 2001.
Cain, Peter, “Introduction” (written in 1999) to J.A. Hobson’s, Democracy After the War,
Routledge/Thoemmes Press, London, 2013 edition.
Cairncross, A. K., Home and Foreign Investment 1870–1913: Studies in Capital
Accumulation, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, [1953] 2015.
Dutt, R. Palme, Britain’s Crisis of Empire, Lawrence & Wishart, London, 1949.
Hobson, J.A., The Evolution of Modern Capitalism: A Study of Machine Production,
George Allen and Unwin Ltd., London, 1894.
Hobson, J.A., The Problem of the Unemployed, Methuen & Co., London, 1896.
Hobson, J.A., Imperialism: A Study, Ann Arbor Paperbacks, University of Michigan Press;
George Allen and Unwin Ltd., London, [1902] 1965.
Hobson, J.A., The Industrial System, 2nd edition. Longmans Green, London, 1910.
Hobson, J.A., An Economic Interpretation of Investment, Strong and Sons, Ltd., East
Street, Bromley, Kent, 1911.
Hobson, J.A., Work and Wealth, New York: Macmillan and Co., 1914a
Hobson, J.A., The Export of Capital, Thesis approved for the Degree of Doctor of Science,
(Economics) in the University of London, [1914b] 2012.
Hobson, J.A., Democracy After the War, Routledge/Thoemmes Press, London, [1917]
2013.
Hobson, J.A. and A.F. Mummery, The Physiology of Industry, Kelly & Millman, Inc., New
York, [1889] 1956.
Kalecki, Michal, Selected Essays on the Dynamics of the Capitalist Economy 1933–1970,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, [1933] 1971.
Kenwood, A.G. and A.L. Lougheed, The Growth of the International Economy 1820–2000,
Routledge, Taylor and Francis Group, London and New York, 2001.
Hobson’s choice 37
Keynes, John Maynard, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, Penguin Books,
Harmondsworth, [1920] 1988.
Keynes, John Maynard, “Am I a Liberal?”: An address to the Liberal Summer School
at Cambridge, in Essays in Persuasion, W.W. Norton & Co. New York and London,
[1925] 1963.
Keynes, John Maynard, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, Harcourt,
Brace Jovanovich, New York, [1936] 1964.
Landes, David S., The Wealth and Poverty of Nations, W. W. Norton & Company, New
York, 1998.
Lenin, V.I., Imperialism: The Highest Stage of Capitalism, A Popular Outline, Martino
Publishing, Mansfield Centre, CT, [1917] 2011.
Medlen, Craig, “A Historiographical Exhumation of J.A. Hobson’s Over-Saving Thesis:
General Theory versus Historiography,” European Journal of the History of Economic
Thought, October 2012.
Nelson, Ralph L., Merger Movements in American Industry 1895–1956, National Bureau
of Economic Research, Princeton University Press, New York, 1959.
Porter, Bernard, Critics of Empire, British Radicals and the Imperial Challenge, I.B.
Tauris, London and New York, 2008.
Rostow, Walter, World Economy: History and Prospect, University of Texas Press, Austin
and London, 1978.
Smith, Adam, The Wealth of Nations, Liberty Fund, Indianapolis, IN, [1776] 1981.
Strachey, John, The End of Empire, Random House, New York, 1960.
Sweezy, Paul, “Obstacles to Economic Development,” in Socialism, Capitalism and
Economic Growth, edited by C.H. Feinstein, Cambridge University Press, New York,
1969.
Tiberi, Mario, The Accounts of the British Empire: Capital Flows from 1799 to 1914,
Ashgate Publishing, Aldershot, England, and Burlington, VT, 2005.
Veblen, Thorstein, The Theory of Business Enterprise, Reprint, Transaction Books, New
Brunswick, NJ, [1904] 1978.
Veblen, Thorstein, The Engineers and the Price System, Transaction Publishers, New
Brunswick, NJ and London, [1921] 1990.
4 Free cash and the stock bubble
of the 1920s
The 1920s stock boom is most often associated with the profitable activity tied
to the 5–6 percent growth during the decade.1 A large part of this growth was
linked to the coming of the internal combustion engine and mass production. The
1920s brought in a new automobile age, with its accompanying suburbs, electrical
and gas systems, and municipal, state and federal outlays for roads and highways,
as well as a boom in various industries linked to modern communications, enter-
tainment and household appliances. The internal combustion engine also drove
major advances in agricultural productivity such as the tractor and other agricul-
tural instruments that moved people off the farms, cheapened food, and provided
a larger industrial workforce that migrated to industrial cities. Cheapened food
allowed for an enlargement of mass markets that expanded profits and stock prices.
The enormous jump in World War I’s positive trade balance receded to more nor-
mal levels in the 1920s, and became more and more tilted to industry as industrial
production rose relative to that of agriculture. This tilt to industry also furthered
manufacturing, which in turn expanded profits and stock values in the export trade.
In contrast to the pre-War capital imports that helped develop the expansion of
U.S. rail systems and other industrial undertakings, U.S. banks and multinational
firms now exported capital, both to a war-devastated Europe and Latin America.
Along with a description of the manic behavior associated with stock psychol-
ogy, economic historians generally use an expanded version of the above to explain
the stock bubble of the late 1920s. In this chapter, I stress another aspect, related to
the new oligopolistic character of the industrial structure. The boom of the 1920s
was the first major boom superimposed upon monopoly-oligopoly foundations. I
maintain that these monopoly foundations were a key component to understanding
the speculative overindulgence of the decade that led up to the stock market crash
of the 1930s. Monopoly pricing allowed a restriction of output driving abnormally
high gross profits that spilled into the stock market. Given the large expansion of
markets, this “restriction” has to be understood in a relative sense. Expanded mar-
kets drove increased production, and released some large part of the braking power
that monopoly power entailed. But given the general reduction in per unit costs
resulting from the assembly lines, scientific management and the new technological
advances of the 1920s, one might have expected significant price reductions across
the board. Apart from specific instances like autos, no general price reductions
Free cash and the stock bubble of the 1920s 39
accompanied the rapid technological advances of the 1920s. Administered prices,
attained through oligopoly pricing, restricted demand and output even in the face
of significant underutilized capacity in the latter part of the decade. Restriction of
output meant a relative restriction of investment, which, in the context of expanded
profits, allowed the generation of free cash.
Free cash was dispensed to stockholders in the form of dividends and merger
receipts. Such an outpouring of cash directed to stockholders not only funneled
new monies into the hands of the rich but encouraged stock buying directly.
Merger acquisition premiums expanded stock values at the same time dividends
provided the wherewithal for additional purchases. Just as important, the self-
financing of corporations drove banks into speculative loans. As George Soule
once noted, “big business was financing itself to such an extent that the need for
commercial credit was reduced. This policy left bank resources free to extend a
large volume of collateral loans, which helped to finance speculation” (Soule,
[1947] 1975, p. 279).
As a partial resultant of monopoly power, the stock bubble of the late 1920s
should be understood as a crescendo point of the preceding decades when
monopoly pricing power became general. Front-seat observers, like Thorstein
Veblen, noticed the slowdown of investment that accompanied the first trustifi-
cation of industry, beginning roughly in the mid-1870s. This trustification was
a direct result of the price competition ushered in with the coming of national
markets. By 1914, the installation of railtrack mileage was equivalent to almost
ten times around the globe. This new national market put into competition
previously insulated firms. Firms had to scale up quickly to enjoy this enor-
mous expansion of markets. The main problem of the nineteenth-century firm
was generating sufficient financial wherewithal to take advantage. The steady
decline in prices from after the Civil War to the turn of the twentieth century
reflected not just the new industrialization of cost cutting but the price cutting
that reflected the transition from an era of intense price competition to that
of monopoly. Initially, trusts, pools and syndications were notoriously unsuc-
cessful as the prospects of price cheating were inherent in the separation of
ownership claims. But this was soon to change.
By cutting into profits, price competition not only undercut internal finance,
but put banks at undue risk when sponsoring individual firms that might well
fail. Price competition thus undermined both internal and external financing.
Understanding this dilemma is key to understanding the Giant Merger Wave of
1895–1904 and why the great investment banks were also its main promoters.
Consolidations put numerous firms under one pricing umbrella that eliminated the
very possibility of firms cheating on one another in regard to price. The wave was
thus at once a counter-reaction to the ruinous competition of the late nineteenth
century and a movement towards an industrial structure populated by dominant
firms (Stigler, 1950). Trusts, pools and other monopolistically oriented efforts
became transformed into unified entities, leaving second-tier firms at the pric-
ing discretion of larger firms. Cutting any giant’s price by a secondary outsider
subjected the outsider to discretionary retaliation that advantaged the larger firm.
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Legation
Legitim
Legitimacy and Legitimation
Lesion
Letters Patent
Libel and Slander
Liberty
Licence
Lien
Limitation, Statutes of
Liquidation
Liquor Laws
Local Government
Local Government Board
Lodger and Lodgings
Lord Advocate
Lord Chamberlain
Lord Chief Justice
Lord Great Chamberlain
Lord High Chancellor
Lord High Constable
Lord High Steward
Lord High Treasurer
Lord Justice Clerk
Lord Justice-General
Lord Keeper of the Great Seal
Lord President of the Council
Lords Justices of Appeal
Lords of Appeal
Lord Steward
Lost Property
Lotteries
Lynch Law
Magistrate
Mahommedan Law
Maiden
Maiming
Maintenance
Majority
Mandamus, Writ of
Mandarin
Mandate
Manifest
Manor
Mansion
Manslaughter
Man-traps
Mare Clausum and Mare Liberum
Maritime Territory
Marriage
Marshalsea
Martial Law
Master and Servant
Master of the Horse
Master of the Rolls
Maxims, Legal
Mayhem
Mayor
Mediation
Medical Jurisprudence
Meeting
Memorandum of Association
Merger
Mesne
Messuage
Military Law
Ministry
Miscarriage
Misdemeanour
Misprision
Mistake
Monarchy
Monition
Mortgage
Mortmain
Motion
Multiplepoinding
Municipality
Muniment
Murder
Mutiny
Nationality
Naturalization
Navigation Laws
Negligence
Negotiable Instrument
Neutrality
Next Friend
Nisi Prius
Noise
Nolle Prosequi
Nonconformity, Law relating to
Nonfeasance, Misfeasance, Malfeasance
Nonsuit
North Sea Fisheries Convention
Notary or Notary Public
Notice
Novation
Nuisance
Nullification
Oath
Obiter Dictum
Obligation
Obscenity
Office
Oligarchy
Ordeal
Order in Council
Ordinance
Ordinary
Original Package
Ouster
Outlawry
Overt Act
Oyer and Terminer
Pacific Blockade
Pandects
Paraphernalia
Pardon
Parish
Parlement
Parliament
Parricide
Parson
Partition
Partnership
Party Wall
Passport
Patents
Patents of Precedence
Patron and Client
Paymaster-General
Payment
Payment of Members
Peace
Peace, Breach of
Peace Conferences
Peine forte et dure
Peerage
Penalty
Penology
Pension
Perjury
Perpetuity
Person, Offences against the
Personal Property
Personation
Petition
Picketing
Pillory
Pirate and Piracy
Plaintiff
Pleading
Plebiscite
Pledge
Plurality
Plutocracy
Police
Police Courts
Posse Comitatus
Possession
Post & Postal Service
Potwalloper
Power of Attorney
Praemunire
Preamble
Prerogative
Prerogative Courts
Prescription
Press Laws
Prime Minister
Primogeniture
Principal and Agent
Prison
Privateer
Privilege
Privy Council
Privy Purse
Privy Seal
Prize or Prize of War
Probate
Probation
Procedure
Process
Procès-verbal
Proclamation
Proctor
Procuration
Procurator
Profanity
Prohibition
Promoter
Property
Prorogation
Prosecution
Prospectus
Protectorate
Provisional Order
Provost
Proxy
Public House
Puisne
Purchase
Quantum Meruit
Quarantine
Quare Impedit
Quarter Sessions
Queen Anne’s Bounty
Quorum
Quo Warranto
Rack
Ragman Rolls
Raid
Rape
Rate
Real Property
Rebellion
Receipt
Receiver
Recess
Recidivism
Recognizance
Record
Recorder
Reeve
Referee
Referendum and Initiative
Refresher
Regent
Register
Registration
Release
Remainder, Reversion
Remand
Remembrancer
Rent
Repairs
Repeal
Replevin
Representation
Reprieve
Reprisals
Request, Letters of
Requests, Court of
Rescue
Reservation
Residence
Resident
Residue
Respite
Respondent
Restraint
Retainer
Reward
Ridings
Riot
Robbery
Roman Law
Rundale
Sacrilege
Salary
Sale of Goods
Salic Law and other Frankish Laws
Salvage
Sanction
Satisfaction
Scandal
Scavenger’s Daughter
Schedule
Scire Facias
Scot and Lot
Scrip
Scrutiny
Sea Laws
Seamen, Laws relating to
Search or Visit and Search
Secession
Secret
Secretary of State
Security
Sederunt, Act of
Sedition
Seduction
Seignory or Seigniory
Seisin
Senate
Sentence
Sequestration
Sergeant-at-Law
Serjeanty
Servitude
Session
Set-off
Settlement
Sexton
Share
Shelley’s Case, Rule in
Sheppard, John (Jack)
Sheriff
Shire
Sign Manual, Royal
Simony
Slander
Socage
Soke
Solicitor
Solicitor-General
Sovereignty
Speaker
Specification
Specific Performance
Spheres of Influence
Spring-gun
Spy
State
State, Great Officers of
State Rights
State Trials
Statute
Stipend
Stocks
Stocks and Shares
Stolen Goods
Subinfeudation
Succession
Succession Duty
Suffrage
Summary Jurisdiction
Summons
Sunday
Superannuation
Supercargo
Supply
Supreme Court of Judicature
Surety
Surrender
Surrogate
Suzerainty
Swearing
Syndic
Syndicate
Taille
Tally
Tanistry
Tenant
Tenant-right
Tenement
Tenure
Term
Theatre
Theft
Thegn
Threat
Tichborne Claimant
Ticket-of-leave
Time
Tipstaff
Tithes
Tithing
Toleration
Toll
Tort
Torture
Town
Trade, Board of
Transfer
Tread-mill
Treason
Treasure Trove
Treasury
Treaties
Trespass
Trial
Tribute
Trover
Truck
Trust and Trustees
Turpin, Richard
Twelve Tables
Udal
Ukaz or Ukase
Ultimatum
Underwriter
University Courts
Uses
Valuation and Valuers
Venue
Verdict
Vestry
Veto
Vicar
Vice-Chancellor
Viceroy
Vidocq, F. E.
Vigilance Committee
Vizier
Vote and Voting
Voucher
Wager
Wainewright, T. G.
War, Laws of
Warden
Warrant
Warrant of Attorney
Warranty
Warren
Waste
Water Rights
Waters, Territorial
Welsh Laws
Wergild
Westminster Statutes
Wheel, Breaking on the
Whig and Tory
Whip
Whipping or Flogging
Wild, Jonathan
Will or Testament
Witness
Woolsack
Works and Public Buildings, Board of
Wreck
Writ
Writers to the Signet
CHAPTER XXVII
FOR BANKERS AND FINANCIERS
Account
Accountants
Achenwall, Gottfried
Adams, Henry Carter
Agio
Aguado, A. M.
Alcavala
Aldrich, N. W.
Allport, Sir J. J.
Alstromer, Jonas
Amortization
Angel
Anna
Annuity
Arbitrage
Armour, P. L.
Ashley, W. J.
Assignats
Astor, John Jacob (and family)
Atkinson, Edward
Attwood, Thomas
Audit and Auditor
Backwardation
Bagehot, Walter
Balance of Trade
Bank Notes
Bank Rate
Banks and Banking
Barbon, Nicholas
Baring (family)
Barter
Bastiat, Frédéric
Bates, Joshua
Baudrillart, H. J. L.
Bawbee
Baxter, Robert Dudley
Bemis, E. W.
Bezant
Biddle, Nicholas
Bill of Exchange
Bimetallism
Blanqui, J. A.
Bliss, C. N.
Block, Maurice
Bodin, Jean
Bodle
Boehm von Bawerk
Boisguilbert, Sieur de
Book-keeping
Bourse
Breaking Bulk
Brentano, L. J.
Broker
Bucketshop
Budget
Bullion
Buying in
Cairnes, John Elliott
Call
Capital
Carey, Henry Charles
Carli-Rubbi
Carrying-over
Cash
Chase, S. P.
Cheque, or Check
Chevalier, Michel
Child, Sir Josiah
Circular Note
Claflin, H. B.
Clark, John Bates
Clearing House
Cohn, Gustav
Coin
Coeur, Jacques
Colston, Edward
Combination
Commerce
Commercial Treaties
Consols
Contango
Cooke, Jay
Co-operation
Cooper, Peter
Cossa, Luigi
Coulisse
Coupon
Courcelle-Seneuil, J. G.
Cournot, A.
Coutts, Thomas
Cover
Credit
Crédit Foncier
Crockford, William
Crore
Crown (coin)
Cunningham, William
Custom Duties
Custom House
Davenant, Charles
Decker, Sir Matthew
Decimal Coinage
Delessert, J. P. B.
Delfico, Melchiorre
Demonetization
Dewey, Davis Rich
Dime
Discount
Distribution
Dividend
Dock Warrant
Dollar
Drawback
Drexel, A. J.
Ducat
Ely, Richard Theodore
Engel, Ernst
English Finance
Exchange
Exchequer
Excise
Farr, William
Farrer, Baron
Farthing
Florin
Field, Cyrus West
Fisk, James
Fix, Theodore
Fouquet, Nicolas
Franc
Free Trade
Friendly Societies
Futures
Gabelle
Gallatin, Albert
Ganilh, Charles
Garnier, C. J.
Garnier, Marquis
Genovesi, Antonio
George, Henry
Giffen, Sir Robert
Gilds
Gilbart, James William
Gioja, Melchiorre
Girard, Stephen
Goldsmid (family)
Gould, Jay (and family)
Grain Trade
Greenbacks
Gresham, Sir Thomas
Gresham’s Law
Groat
Guinea
Gurney (family)
Hadley, A. T.
Hamilton, Alexander
Hamilton, Robert
Hanna, M. A.
Harriman, Edward H.
Haxthausen, L. von
Hermann, F. B. W. von
Hill, James J.
Horner, Francis
Horton, Samuel Dana
Hudson, George
Hufeland, Gottlieb
Income Tax
Ingram, J. K.
Insurance
Invoice
Jakob, L. H. von
Jenks, J. W.
Jesup, M. K.
Jevons, William S.
Jones, Richard
Kay, Joseph
Laing, Samuel
Lakh
Laveleye, E. L. V. de
Law, John
Lawrence, Amos
Le Play, P. G. Frédéric
Leroy-Beaulieu, P. P.
Leslie, Thomas E. C.
Letter of Credit
Levasseur, Pierre Emile
Levi, Leone
Lingen, Baron
Lipton, Sir T. J.
Lira
List, Friedrich
Lloyd’s
M’Culloch, John R.
Mackay, John William
Macleod, Henry Dunning
Making-up Price
Malthus, Thomas Robert
Mark
Market
Marshall, Alfred
Marx, Heinrich Karl
Mayo-Smith, Richmond
Mint
Mohur
Moidore
Monopoly
Monetary Conferences (International)
Money
Money-lending
Moon, Sir Richard
Moratorium
Morgan, John Pierpont
Morris, Robert
Morton, L. P.
Mun, Thomas
National Debt
Newmarch, William
North, Sir Dudley
Octroi
Overstone, 1st baron
Par
Paterson, William
Pauperism
Pawnbroking