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Exercise OM Chap 2

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Exercise OM Chap 2

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Uyên Vũ
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lOMoARcPSD|22016241

Exercise Set 1

Operations Management (Trường Đại học Ngoại thương)

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EXERCISES
CHAPTER 2

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Exercise 1

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Exercise 2

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EXERCISE 3: PROBLEM 3 (TEXTBOOK)


A dry cleaner uses exponential smoothing to forecast
equipment usage at its main plant. August usage was
forecasted to be 88 percent of capacity; actual usage was
89.6 percent of capacity. A smoothing constant of .1 is used.
a. Prepare a forecast for September.
b. Assuming actual September usage of 92 percent, prepare
a forecast for October usage.

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Exercise 4
The weekly demand for chicken wings at a local restaurant
during the past six weeks has been
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6
Demand 650 521 563 735 514 596
a. Forecast the demand for week 7 using a five-period moving
average.
b. Forecast the demand for week 7 using a three-period
weighted moving average. Use the following weights: W1 = .5, W2
= .3, W3 = .2.
c. Forecast the demand for week 7 using exponential smoothing.
Use an α value of .1 and assume the forecast for week 6 was 600
units.

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Exercise 5
The number of daily calls for the repair of Speedy copy machines
has been recorded as follows:
a. Prepare three-period
moving-average forecasts
for the data. What is the
error on each day?
b. Prepare three-period
weighted-moving-average
fore- casts using weights of
w1 = .5, w2 = .3, w3 = .2.
c. Which of the two forecasts
is better?

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Exercise 6: PROBLEM 21 (textbook)


Two different forecasting techniques (F1 and F2) were used to forecast
demand for cases of bottled water. Actual demand and the two sets of
forecasts are as follows:

a) Compute MAD for each set of forecasts. Given your results, which forecast
appears to be more accurate? Explain.
b) Compute the MSE for each set of forecasts. Given your results, which
forecast appears to be more accurate?

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EXERCISE 7
Shipments (in tons) of welded tube by an aluminum producer are shown
below:

1. Compute a 3-year moving average, plot it as a dotted line, and use


it to forecast shipments in year 12.
2. Using a weight of 3 for the most recent data, 2 for the next, and 1 for
the oldest, forecast shipments in year 12.

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During the past 8 quarters, the Port of Baltimore has unloaded large
Exercise 8 quantities of grain from ships. The portÕs operations manager wants to
test the use of exponential smoothing to see how well the technique
works in predicting tonnage unloaded. He guesses that the forecast of
grain unloaded in the first quarter was 175 tons. Two values of a are to
be examined: a = .10 and a = .50.

Quarter Demand
1 180
2 168
3 159
4 175
5 190
6 205
7 180
8 182
9 ?

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HOW ABOUT MSE,


MAPE?

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COMPUTING SEASONAL
RELATIVES USING THE SIMPLE
AVERAGING METHOD

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MULTIPLICATIVE SEASONAL MODEL


Step 1: Find the average historical demand each season (or
month in this case) by summing the demand for that month
in each year and dividing by the number of years of data
available.
For example, if, in January, we have seen sales of 8, 6, and 10
over the past 3 years, average January demand equals (8 +
6 + 10)/3 = 8 units.

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MULTIPLICATIVE SEASONAL MODEL


Step 2: Compute the average demand over all months by
dividing the total average annual demand by the number of
seasons.
For example, if the total average demand for a year is 120
units and there are 12 seasons (each month), the average
monthly demand is 120/12 = 10 units.

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MULTIPLICATIVE SEASONAL MODEL


Step 3: Compute a seasonal index for each season by
dividing that monthÕs historical average demand (from Step
1) by the average demand over all months (from Step 2).
For example, if the average historical January demand over
the past 3 years is 8 units and the average demand over all
months is 10 units, the seasonal index for January is 8/10 = .80.
Likewise, a seasonal index of 1.20 for February would mean
that FebruaryÕs demand is 20% larger than the average
demand over all months.

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MULTIPLICATIVE SEASONAL MODEL


Step 4: Estimate next yearÕs total annual demand.
Step 5: Divide this estimate of total annual demand by the
number of seasons, then multiply it by the seasonal index for
each month. This provides the seasonal forecast.

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Exercise 9
A Des Moines distributor of
Lenova laptop computers
wants to develop monthly
indices for sales. Data from
the past 3 years, by month,
are available.
If we expect the annual
demand for computers to be
1,200 units next year, what will
the forecasts for each month
in the next year be?

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IF NEXT YEARÕS ANNUAL DEMAND IS


1,150 LAPTOPS (INSTEAD OF 1,200),
WHAT WILL THE JANUARY, FEBRUARY,
AND MARCH FORECASTS BE?

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Exercise 10
Wishbone Farms grows turkeys to sell to a meat-processing company throughout
the year. However, its peak season is obviously during the fourth quarter of the
year, from October to December. Wishbone Farms has experienced the
demand for turkeys for the past three years shown in the following table.
What will the forecasts for each quarter in 2022 be, if the forecast for 2022 is
58,170 turkeys?

Demand (1000s) per Quarter


Year 1 2 3 4
2019 12.6 8.6 6.3 17.5
2020 14.1 10.3 7.5 18.2
2021 15.3 10.6 8.1 19.6

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