PROBABILITY AND

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
Basic Concepts
Basic Concepts
Random Experiment – a process that can be repeated
under similar conditions but whose outcome cannot be
predicted with certainty beforehand

Examples:
➢ Tossing a pair of dice
➢ Tossing a fair coin
➢ Selecting 5 cards from a well-shuffled deck of cards
Basic Concepts
Basic Concepts
Basic Concepts
Example 3. Consider an experiment of tossing a die.
a. Determine O, the event that the outcome is an odd number.
b. Determine E, the event that the outcome is an even number.
c. Are events O and E mutually exclusive?

Example 4. Consider the experiment of tossing 2 coins. Determine the

following:
a. A, the event that at least one head will occur.
b. B, the event that at most 2 heads will occur.
c. Are events A and B mutually exclusive?
Counting Techniques
Counting Techniques: FPC
In many situations, we shall be able to solve probability problems by merely
counting the number of elements that is directly connected with the problem
under consideration, without actually listing each element.
This is done by applying the Fundamental Principle of Counting (FPC):

This principle can be extended to three or more operations. To apply this

principle, it is necessary that the processes involved should be identified, as
well as the number of ways in which the processes can be done.
Counting Techniques: FPC
Example 5. Three items are selected at random from a manufacturing process.
Each item is inspected and classified as defective (D) or non-defective (N).
Determine the number of ways this selection can be done.

Example 6. A student has to enroll in Math 1, Physics 10, and Chemistry 1. If there
are 2 sections in Math 1, only 1 section in Physics 10, and 2 sections in Chemistry 1,
how many possible schedules can he make, assuming there is no conflict of
schedule?

Example 7. How many 3-digit numbers can be performed from the digits 3, 4, 8,
and 9 if
a. no digit is repeated?
b. repetition of digits is allowed?
c. repetition of digits is allowed and the number is even?
Counting Techniques: Permutation
A set of objects can be arranged in different ways depending on the number of
objects in the set and the number of objects in a particular arrangement. Each
ordered arrangement of all or part of a set of objects is called a permutation.

Example 8. In how many ways can Vic, Joey, Luz and Ann be seated in a row of 4
chairs?

Example 9. a) How many distinct permutations can be made from the letters of
the word “FRIEND”?
b) How many of these permutations start with the letter F?
Counting Techniques: Permutation

Example 10. If three prizes (1st, 2nd, 3rd) will be awarded from among
10 equally-qualified students, in how many ways can this be done if
only one set of prizes will be won?

Example 11. In how many ways can 2 vacant positions for President
and Vice-President be filled among 6 equally-qualified company
officials?
Counting Techniques: Permutation

Example 12. In how many different ways can 3 red, 4 yellow, and 2
blue bulbs be arranged in a string of Christmas tree lights with 9
sockets.
Counting Techniques: Permutation

Example 13. In how many ways can 6 different varieties of gumamela

be planted in a circle?
Counting Techniques: Combination

In some cases, we are interested in the number of

ways of selecting 𝑟 objects from 𝑛 distinct objects
without regard to order. These selection is called
combinations.

As for example, AB and BA are two permutations.

However, these two permutations, AB and BA, are
considered as only one combination.
Counting Techniques: Combination

Example 14. How many different combinations can be formed from the letters a, b,
and c if 2 letters are taken at a time?

Example 15. From 4 mathematicians and 3 statisticians find the number of

committees of size 3 that can be formed with 2 mathematicians and 1 statistician.
Counting Techniques: Combination

Example 16. From 5 CAS, 4 CED, and 3 CEIT students, a committee consisting of 3 CAS,
2 CED, and 1 CEIT student is to be formed. In how many ways can this be done if:
a. any student from these colleges can be included?
b. one particular CED student must be in the committee?
c. 2 particular CAS students cannot be in the committee?
Counting Techniques

Exercise. Solve the following problems. Use ½ sheet of paper.

1. In how many ways can a president, a treasurer and a secretary be chosen from
among 7 candidates?
2. Find the number of words, with or without meaning, that can be formed with the
letters of the word ‘SWIMMING?
3. A license plate begins with three letters. If the possible letters are A, B, C, D and E,
how many different permutations of these letters can be made if no letter is used
more than once?
4. Among a set of 5 black balls (B1, B2, B3, B4, B5) and 3 red balls (R1, R2, R3), how
many selections of 5 balls can be made such that 3 of them are black balls.
Probability
Probability
Measurement of chances.
Probability values can either be in
fractions or in decimals from 0 to
1 or in percentages from 1% to
100%. PROBABILITY

Classical Subjective

Empirical
Probability: Classical

Classical probability uses sample spaces to determine the

numerical probability that an event will happen.

It assumes that all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely
to occur.
Probability: Classical
Probability: Classical

Example 17

Your Turn!
Probability: Classical

Example 18
Probability: Classical
Probability: Classical
Probability: Empirical

The difference between classical and empirical probability is that classical

probability assumes that certain outcomes are equally likely (such as the outcomes
when a die is rolled), while empirical probability relies on actual experience to
determine the likelihood of outcomes.

In empirical probability, one might actually roll a given die 6000 times,
observe the various frequencies, and use these frequencies to determine the
probability of an outcome.

It is also known as Relative Frequency Probability

Probability: Empirical
Probability: Empirical

Empirical
Probability: Empirical

Example 19

Empirical
Probability: Empirical

Example 20

Empirical
Probability: Empirical

Example 20

Empirical
Probability: Empirical
Example 21

Empirical
Probability: Empirical

Example 21

Empirical
Probability: Subjective

Subjective probability uses a probability value based on an educated guess or

estimate, employing opinions and inexact information. This guess is based on
the person’s experience and evaluation of a solution.

Example: Empirical
➢ A physician might say that, on the basis of her diagnosis, there is a 30%
chance the patient will need an operation.
➢ A seismologist might say there is an 80% probability that an earthquake will
occur in a certain area.
Probability
Example 22

Empirical
Probability
Example 23

Empirical
Some Probability Laws
Some Probability Laws: General Addition Rule

This pertains to the probability of union of events.

Are A & B mutually NO

Empirical
exclusive?
YES
Some Probability Laws: General Addition Rule

Example 24. Find the probability of drawing either an ace or a king

in a single draw.

Example 25. If we draw one card from a deck of 52 cards, what is

the probability that it will be a club or a face card?
Some Probability Laws: Multiplication Rule
This pertains to the probability of intersection of events.

Are A & B NO
Independent?
YES
Some Probability Laws: Multiplication Rule
Example 26. A box contains 5 balls wherein 3 are white and 2 are blacks. Now, 2
balls are drawn from a box successively, what is the probability that both balls
drawn are black?
a. consider with replacement (events are independent)
b. consider without replacement (events are dependent)

Example 27. Exposure of a certain fruit fly population to an insecticide has

produced 2 kinds of mutation. 20% have wing mutation, 15% have an eye mutation
and 5% have both. A fly is selected at random.
a. If it has wing mutation, what is the probability that it also has
eye mutation?
b. If it has eye mutation, what is the probability that it also has
wing mutation?
c. What is the probability that it has at least one mutation?
Some Probability Laws: Multiplication Rule

Example 28. The distribution of Favor and Not Favor responses of CSU students
concerning the compulsory uniform is given in the table below.
Sex faVor Not faVor
Male 140 460
Female 40 260
If a student is selected at random, what is the probability that a student is:
a. a female?
b. a male or not favor?
c. a male who is in favor?
Some Probability Laws: Multiplication Rule
Example 29.
Random Variables
Random Variables

❑ A random variable is a variable whose values occur by chance.

❑ It is a function whose value is a real number determined by
each element in the sample space.
❑ Capital letters like X, Y, or Z are used to denote a random
variables.
❑ At time, elements of a sample space are not expressed as
numbers.
❑ The use of random variables provides a convenient way of
expressing elements of a sample space as numbers.
Random Variables

Outcomes HHH HHT HTH THH TTH THT HTT TTT

X = no. of heads 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 0
Random Variables
Example 31. A pair of dice is rolled. Let Y be the random variable
denoting the absolute difference of the points on the upturned faces
of the dice.
Y=|Y1-Y2| 0 1 2 3 4 5

(1,1) (1,2), (2,1) (1,3), (3,1) (1,4), (4,1) (1,5), (5,1) (1,6)
(2,2) (2,3), (3,2) (2,4), (4,2) (2,5), (5,2) (2,6), (6,2) (6,1)
Corresponding (3,3) (3,4), (4,3) (3,5), (5,3) (3,6), (6,3)
Outcomes
(4,4) (4,5), (5,4) (4,6), (6,4)
(5,5) (5,6), (6,5)
(6,6)
Random Variables

❑ Random variables are generally classified

according to the value that they assume.
❑ If a random variable takes only finite number of
values, then it is called a discrete random
variable.
❑ When a variable can take on any value on a
continuous scale, then it is called a continuous
random variable.
Random Variables: Discrete

Examples:
❑ Number of hearts drawn from a deck of cards
❑ Number of heads in 3 tosses of a fair coin
❑ Number of persons in a city in favor of the new
ordinance
❑ Number of barangays who voted for the opposition
candidates
❑ Number of females in a Statistics class
❑ Number of persons whose favorite color is blue
Random Variables: Continuous

Examples:
❑ Weight of a person
❑ Height of a person
❑ Weekly expenses of an average Filipino family
❑ Monthly income of a public school teacher
❑ Estimated monthly saving of a college student
❑ GPA of the students last semester
Discrete Probability Distribution

When a random variable is discrete, its

corresponding probability distribution is called a
discrete probability distribution.

A discrete probability distribution could be an

equation, or a table that lists all the possible values
that a discrete random variable can take on together
with the associated probabilities.
Discrete Probability Distribution

Example 32. From example 31, where the random variable Y is the
absolute difference of the upturned faces of the two dice, a value of
Y=4 corresponds to four sample points, namely (1,5), (5,1), (2,6) and
(6,2). Since there are 36 sample points, a value of Y=4 is assigned a
probability 4/36.
Y 0 1 2 3 4 5
P(Y=y) 6/36 10/36 8/36 6/36 4/36 2/36

Notice that if we sum the probabilities above, the total is equal to 1.

This is one of the important properties of a probability distribution.
Discrete Probability Distribution

X 0 1 2 3
P(X=x) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8
Discrete Probability Distribution
The graph of a discrete probability distribution can be presented using
a histogram.
To draw the histogram, the values of the random variables are used as
the midpoints, and are plotted in the horizontal scale. The height of
the rectangle is the corresponding probability and is drawn in the
vertical scale.
Continuous Probability Distribution
❑ When a random variable is continuous, it takes any of
the infinite number of values in an interval. Thus there is
no meaningful interpretation for assigning a positive
probability for a specific value.
❑ For example, if the random variable of interest X, is the
height of 2nd year college students in CSU, then X can
possibly take on values on the interval 55 to 75 inches.
❑ Unlike the discrete case, the graph of a continuous
probability distribution is not represented by a
histogram.
❑ The graph of a continuous probability distribution is a
bell shape smooth curve as shown in the next slide.
Continuous Probability Distribution

❑ To find the probability that a random variable X is contained in the

interval [a,b], we determine the area of the shaded portion below
the curve, above the x-axis and between the lines erected at a and
b.
❑ The total area of the curve is 1.
Probability Distribution: Properties
Binomial Distribution
Binomial Distribution
❑ The binomial distribution is an example of discrete probability
distribution.
❑ It involves repeated trials where an experimenter is interested
whether a particular trial resulted in an outcome that he/she
desired.
❑ This outcome of interest is mostly referred as the “success”
outcome, otherwise it is called the “failure” outcome.
Example:
➢ Toss of a coin
➢ Vote of a citizen in an election
➢ Student’s answer to a multiple choice item
Binomial Distribution
Binomial Distribution
Binomial Distribution
Binomial Distribution
Binomial Distribution
Example 36. If 20% of the bolts produced by a machine are defective,
determine the probability that out of 4 bolts chosen at random,
a. exactly 3 are defective
b. at least 3 are defective
c. 2 bolts are non-defective
d. at most 1 is non-defective
Binomial Distribution
Binomial Distribution
Binomial Distribution
Binomial Distribution
Binomial Distribution
Normal Distribution
Normal Distribution
❑ Recall the two properties of probability:
➢ The probability values are non-negative
➢ The sum of the probabilities of every outcome in a sample
space is 1
❑ Under the continuous case, the extra requirement
needed to make it a continuous distribution is that the
total area under the curve is equal to 1.
❑ There are various types of continuous distribution but
the most important is the NORMAL DISTRIBUTION.
❑ It is sometimes called the Gaussian distribution, in
honor of Gauss (1777-1855) who is one of the
Mathematicians who derived its equation.
Normal Distribution

The graph of a normal distribution is a bell-shaped curve

that extends asymptotically to the horizontal axis in both
directions.
Normal Distribution
Normal Distribution
Normal Distribution
Properties:
❑ It is symmetric with respect to a vertical axis passing
through the mean
❑ The mean, median, and the mode are equal
❑ The tails are asymptotic relative to the horizontal line
❑ The total area under the normal curve and above the
horizontal axis is 1
Normal Distribution
Areas Under the Normal Curve
Normal Distribution
Computation of Probabilities Using the Standard Normal Table
Normal Distribution
Normal Distribution
Normal Distribution

0.9918
Normal Distribution
Normal Distribution
Normal Distribution
Normal Distribution
Normal Distribution
Transformation Theory
Normal Distribution
Normal Distribution

EXAMPLE 40. A set of 100 scores in a statistics examination is

approximately normally distributed with a mean of 74 and a
standard deviation of 7.9. Find the following:
a. Probability that a student received scores between 75 and 80.
b. The percentage of students with scores lower than 75.