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 THE NEW TRIPLE
CONSTRAINTS FOR
SUSTAINABLE
PROJECTS, PROGRAMS,
AND PORTFOLIOS

GREGORY T. HAUGAN
 THE NEW TRIPLE
CONSTRAINTS FOR
SUSTAINABLE
PROJECTS, PROGRAMS,
AND PORTFOLIOS
 THE NEW TRIPLE
CONSTRAINTS FOR
SUSTAINABLE
PROJECTS, PROGRAMS,
AND PORTFOLIOS

GREGORY T. HAUGAN
CRC Press
Taylor & Francis Group
6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300
Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742
© 2013 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
CRC Press is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group, an Informa business

No claim to original U.S. Government works

Version Date: 20120514

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 To my grandchildren and great-grandchildren,

who will have to help make this world a better place despite population,

climate change, and energy problems.

Seth, Jessica, Katie, Jason, Buckey, Mike, Alexandra,

Nicholas, Erika, Jonathon, Jeffrey, and Alia

Contents
Preface..................................................................................................xvii
Acknowledgments................................................................................xix
About the Author..................................................................................xxi
Prologue............................................................................................. xxiii

Chapter 1 Sustainability Overlay Concept and Structure................. 1

Overlay Zoning Analogy.............................................................1
Overlay Criteria............................................................................2
Purpose.....................................................................................3
Applicability.............................................................................3
Specific Rules............................................................................4
PCE Breakdown Structure..........................................................5

Chapter 2 Summary for Policymakers: PCE Overlay......................... 7

Overview........................................................................................8
Content Analysis of the Population,
Climate Change and Energy (PCE) Overlay........................8
Overlay Scenarios..................................................................13
Overlay Summary..................................................................17
Policies to Complement the PCE Overlay...............................18
Government Policies.............................................................18
General Government Policies..............................................19
World Policies....................................................................... 20
Private Sector Policies...........................................................21
Investment Policies Considering Climate Change...........22
Program Policies....................................................................26

Section Iâ•… Population Overlay

Chapter 3 Population Constraint Overlay: Introduction................ 31

vii
viii • Contents

Chapter 4 Introduction to Demography........................................... 35

Thomas Robert Malthus............................................................36
Socialism......................................................................................37
Demographic Transition Stages...............................................38
Immigration and Migration.....................................................39

Chapter 5 World Population.............................................................. 41

World Population Growth....................................................... 42
Demographic Transitions.................................................... 43
Health and Mortality Transition........................................ 44
Fertility Transition............................................................... 46
Population Trends................................................................ 48
Regional Differences.............................................................51

Chapter 6 United States Population.................................................. 55

Overview of U.S. Population and Projections........................55
Hispanic Population..................................................................57
Racial Diversity in the United States.......................................59
United States in 2050................................................................ 60

Chapter 7 World Age Distribution and Sustainability.................... 63

Age Distributions...................................................................... 64
Sustainability: Carrying Capacity........................................... 68

Chapter 8 Population Policies and Dilemmas.................................. 73

Population Issues and Dilemmas.............................................73
Population Policies.....................................................................75

Section IIâ•… Climate Change Overlay

Chapter 9 Climate Change Constraint Overlay............................... 81

Introduction................................................................................81
Definitions.................................................................................. 84
 Contents • ix

Chapter 10 History and Background of the Science.......................... 87

Years 1824 to 1957..................................................................... 88
Keeling Curve: 1958.................................................................. 90

Chapter 11 Climate Manifestations.................................................... 93

Greenhouse Effect......................................................................93
Svante Arrhenius Revisited..................................................94
Energy Balance...................................................................... 96
Carbon Cycle..........................................................................98
Historic CO2 Levels...............................................................98
CO2/Temperature Sensitivity............................................ 100
The Sun......................................................................................102
Milankovitch Cycles............................................................103
Sunspots and Solar Flares...................................................104
Solar Insolation: Amount of Sunlight...............................106
Oceans........................................................................................108
Role of the Oceans...............................................................109
Temperature and Heat Content.........................................110
Chemistry of the Oceans....................................................113
Temperature..............................................................................115
Global Temperature Data...................................................115
Forecast Temperatures........................................................118
Temperature Patterns..........................................................119
Temperature Extremes........................................................119
United States Temperatures...............................................119
Cryosphere: The Arctic and the Antarctic........................... 120
Arctic.................................................................................... 122
Importance of the Arctic................................................... 123
Arctic Warming.................................................................. 123
Permafrost............................................................................125
Arctic Ocean........................................................................127
Ice Extent and Volume........................................................127
History of Sea Ice Melt........................................................129
Arctic Oil Resources............................................................130
Arctic Ocean Highways......................................................130
Greenland.............................................................................131
Interest in Greenland..........................................................131
Temperatures in Greenland...............................................132
x • Contents

Greenland Ice Loss..............................................................132

Antarctica.............................................................................133
East Antarctica.................................................................... 134
West Antarctica...................................................................135
Pine Island.......................................................................135
Causes of Melting............................................................136
Glaciers and Ice Sheets........................................................137

Chapter 12 Climate Change Overlays............................................... 139

Indicators of a Warming World.............................................139
Sea Levels...................................................................................141
Atmosphere: Weather Events..................................................146
Precipitation.........................................................................146
Storms....................................................................................147
Arctic Linkages to Storms..................................................148
Droughts...............................................................................150
Ecosystem Impacts..............................................................151

Chapter 13 Planning for a Different Future: An Overlay of

Adaptation and Mitigation...................................................... 153
Tragedy of the Commons....................................................... 154
Planning for a Warming Future: Mitigation of
CO2 Emissions..........................................................................158
International Actions..........................................................158
Actions Required to Meet Mitigation Objectives...........162
IPCC Mitigation Solutions.................................................163
Stabilization Wedges...........................................................163
Other Emissions Mitigation Alternatives........................168
Planning for a Warming Future: Adaptation.......................170
Adaptation Activities and Planning.................................170
Adaptation in the United States........................................172
Adaptive Capacity and Response......................................173
Climate Policy: Both Mitigation and Adaptation................175
Adaptation and Mitigation Interrelationships................175
Mitigation and Adaptation Portfolios..............................177
Costs versus Benefits...........................................................179
Climate Change Denial.......................................................182
 Contents • xi

Section IIIâ•…Energy Overlay

Chapter 14 Energy Constraint Overlay............................................. 187

Introduction to Energy............................................................188
SWOT Analyses........................................................................195

Chapter 15 Coal.................................................................................. 197

Formation and Discovery........................................................197
SWOT Analysis: Coal..............................................................198
Strengths...............................................................................198
Weaknesses.......................................................................... 200
Opportunities...................................................................... 202
Threats.................................................................................. 203

Chapter 16 Liquid Fuels..................................................................... 207

Formation and Discovery....................................................... 207
Production and Forecast........................................................ 208
SWOT Analysis: Oil Industry.................................................214
Strengths...............................................................................215
Weaknesses...........................................................................218
Peak Oil............................................................................218
Oil Prices..........................................................................221
Synthesis of Weakness.................................................. 222
Opportunities...................................................................... 225
Threats.................................................................................. 226

Chapter 17 Natural Gas...................................................................... 229

Formation and Discovery....................................................... 229
Natural Gas Usage................................................................... 230
Shale Gas....................................................................................231
SWOT Analysis: Natural Gas Industry................................ 234
Strengths.............................................................................. 234
Weaknesses.......................................................................... 236
Opportunities.......................................................................239
Clathrates: Methane Hydrate........................................239
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Technology..................241
Threats...................................................................................241
xii • Contents

Chapter 18 Nuclear Energy................................................................ 243

History and Background........................................................ 243
SWOT Analysis: Nuclear Energy.......................................... 245
Strengths.............................................................................. 245
Weaknesses.......................................................................... 248
Opportunities.......................................................................253
Threats...................................................................................255

Chapter 19 Renewable Energy Sources............................................. 257

Introduction..............................................................................257
Overview....................................................................................259

Chapter 20 Solar Power...................................................................... 263

The Sun..................................................................................... 264
Solar Technologies................................................................... 266
Solar—Photovoltaic Systems............................................. 267
Concentrating Solar Thermal (CST) Power Systems..... 268
SWOT Analysis: Solar Power..................................................270
Strengths...............................................................................271
Weaknesses...........................................................................272
Opportunities.......................................................................273
Threats...................................................................................275

Chapter 21 Wind Energy.................................................................... 277

Overview................................................................................... 277
SWOT Analysis: Wind Power................................................ 283
Strengths.............................................................................. 284
Weaknesses.......................................................................... 284
Opportunities...................................................................... 286
Threats.................................................................................. 287

Chapter 22 Geothermal Energy......................................................... 289

Formation and Discovery....................................................... 290
SWOT Analysis: Geothermal Energy....................................293
Strengths.............................................................................. 294
Weaknesses...........................................................................295
 Contents • xiii

Lack of Available and Reliable Resource

Information.....................................................................295
High Exploration Risks and High Up-Front Costs......295
Siting, Leasing, and Permitting Issues........................ 296
High Local Impact on the Environment.................... 296
Access to Transmission Infrastructure....................... 297
Absence of National Policy........................................... 297
Opportunities...................................................................... 297
Threats.................................................................................. 298

Chapter 23 Biomass Energy............................................................... 299

Overview................................................................................... 299
Biomass..................................................................................... 300
Biofuels.......................................................................................301
SWOT Analysis: Biomass....................................................... 303
Strengths.............................................................................. 304
Weaknesses.......................................................................... 305
Opportunities...................................................................... 306
Threats.................................................................................. 308

Chapter 24 Hydropower Systems........................................................311

Basic Hydroelectric Systems...................................................311
Other Hydropower Systems....................................................313
Tide Energy Systems...........................................................314
Wave Energy Systems..........................................................314
Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC)...................315
Entropy Systems...................................................................316
SWOT Analysis: Hydropower................................................317
Strengths...............................................................................317
Weaknesses...........................................................................318
Ecosystem Damage and Loss of Land..........................319
Flow Shortage................................................................. 320
Methane Emissions (from Reservoirs)........................ 320
Population Relocation................................................... 320
Failure Hazard.................................................................321
Construction Costs and Schedules...............................321
Opportunities.......................................................................322
Threats...................................................................................322
xiv • Contents

Chapter 25 Renewable Energy Sources Summary............................ 325

Renewables Overview..............................................................325
U.S. Renewables........................................................................327

Chapter 26 Program Planning in an Energy Constrained and

Uncertain World............................................................. 329
Introduction..............................................................................329
Transportation Energy Sector................................................330
Energy General Sector.............................................................333

Section IVâ•… Supporting Appendices

Appendix A: The Scientific Community Positions on
Climate Change and Global Warming.......................... 337
Group 1: Renowned Scientific Organizations and
Their Conclusions on Climate Change..................................337
Group 2: Other Scientific Society Components of the
Consensus Position................................................................. 340
National Science Academies of the G8+5 Nations
(Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy,
India, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, the
United Kingdom, and the United States).....................340
Ecological Society of America.......................................... 340
American Physical Society................................................ 341
International Council of Academies of
Engineering and Technological Sciences (CAETS)....... 341
Network of African Science Academies.......................... 341
European Physical Society................................................ 341
European Science Foundation Position Paper............... 342
Federation of Australian Scientific and
Technological Societies Policy Statement........................ 342
European Federation of Geologists Position Paper....... 342
Geological Society of Australia Position Statement....... 342
International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics
(IUGG) Resolution............................................................. 343
Royal Meteorological Society (UK)................................. 343
 Contents • xv

American Public Health Association Policy Statement.... 343

Australian Medical Association....................................... 343
Group 3: Faith-Based Organizations Supporting the
Consensus Position................................................................. 344
Pontifical Academy of Sciences, Vatican, Rome,
May 11, 2011........................................................................ 344
Society of Friends Statement on Global Climate
Change................................................................................. 344
American Baptist Churches.............................................. 345
Unitarian Universalist Association of Congregations..... 346
Threat of Global Warming/Climate Change............. 346
General Board of the United Methodist Church........... 347
Advocacy Focus Issues: Climate Change................... 347
Central Conference of American Rabbis........................ 348
Other Faith-Based Statements.......................................... 349
Appendix B: Statistical Inference..................................................................351
Appendix C: Risk Management............................................................ 355
Introduction..............................................................................355
Definitions................................................................................ 356
Risk Management Process......................................................357
Risk Identification...............................................................359
Risk Assessment.................................................................. 360
Developing a Risk Response..............................................361
Risk Control........................................................................ 362
Appendix D: Geology and Climate Change......................................... 365
Geology Society of London Position Statement.................. 365
Acronyms and Abbreviations............................................................. 369
Glossary................................................................................................ 373
Bibliography......................................................................................... 375
Preface
For several years, in addition to extensive work in project management,
I have been active as an instructor in adult education programs for a local
community college and making presentations to local churches and civic
groups on the topics addressed in this book. I have been teaching short
courses exploring issues in oil and energy, global warming, and climate
change. It has been illuminating to see how poorly informed people are
on these major issues, considering the current and potential impacts on
their lives.
I am active in volunteer work for my local county government where
I led the development of the current county Comprehensive Plan and was
active in the revision of the current zoning ordinances. Some of my activi-
ties were the development of zoning overlays for the historic district, the
protection of land for reservoirs, for highway traffic flow, and other special
purposes. The concept of a set of sustainability overlays addressing the
new triple constraints of population, climate change, and energy applied
to the existing project management triple constraints of cost, schedule,
and quality/performance arose from that experience.
This book is geared toward two segments of the professional population:
first, the 350,000 members of the Project Management Institute (PMI®)
and hundreds of thousands of other project, program, and port�folio man-
agers who are just beginning to realize that the historic planning paradigm
has changed, but don’t have a reliable source or the time to track down the
facts:* and second, the many managers who are responsible for organiza-
tion strategic plans who normally would use extrapolations of historic data
as their bases for projecting into the future. This book provides a series
of overlays of major changes occurring in population, climate, and energy
areas that are not indexed to history but to changes currently occurring
that collectively represent a major turning point in world use of resources
and the necessity to seek sustainability. This book is also geared toward
the grandchildren and great-grandchildren of these managers who will
be �living in a world that depends significantly upon decisions made or
not made now. The question is: How well informed are managers on the
* PMI® has also awarded the PMP© Credential to nearly 420,000 persons and there are nearly
680,000 copies of their Project Management Book of Knowledge, PMBOK© Guide, in circulation.

xvii
xviii • Preface

three topics of population, climate change, and energy?* And, how are
they incorporating the current major departures from historical trends
into their planning? Sound bites on the topics are broadcast every day, but
they seem contradictory, and for most people are just treated as noise. It is
apparent from discussions at the PMI meetings and with managers that
their horizons need intelligent expansion if they are to make decisions
that depend on assumptions as to the stability of the assumed and current
life-cycle environment.
The papers on “sustainability” in the PMI publications primarily address
the use of renewable resources on projects and “green” projects and do
not often address the significance of finite limits of key resources or the
changes in consumption that must occur. The decades of the 2010s and
especially the 2020s and beyond are potentially periods of great opportu-
nity as well as great stress and threat due to unique and dramatic changes
in population, climate, availability of oil and natural gas, and sources of
energy. The demographic, economic, and geopolitical impacts are expected
to be considerable and variable. Current scientific data and projections
indicate the coming two to three decades will be a period of transition to
even greater changes later this century.
These issues are important to managers since most life cycles of pro-
grams are 5–10 years or longer, and portfolio and strategic planning man-
agers must look beyond that horizon to a world we hope is sustainable.
Infrastructure projects commonly have 50-year life expectancies. The
new triple constraints will become more consequential and will have an
increasingly significant impact on programs in decades to come. Govern-
ment and industry responses, as the likely scenarios play out, will create
opportunities for portfolio managers that will be implemented through
the actions of project and program managers.
The aim of this book is to provide a rational basis for approaching the
problems that program and portfolio managers are facing and will face in
the future from the three issues of population, climate change, and energy.
This is simply risk management where the planner evaluates the likely
impact of these issues and thereby makes a more rational decision. This
should enable them to take advantage of the coming and ongoing changes
in their life-cycle planning and portfolio selection.

* Some people believe a fourth major constraint is fresh water. Certainly Fred Pearce’s book
When the Rivers Run Dry would support this; however, this is beyond the scope of this book
at this time.
Acknowledgments
In the preparation of this book I wish to express my appreciation and
acknowledge the support received from Allan R. Kostreba, senior princi-
pal, acquisition and software economics, Noblis, Falls Church, Virginia;
from William Kirby, a retired National Science Foundation senior man-
ager; from Gregory T. Haugan Jr., a senior manager in the Department of
Homeland Security; from Lee Allain, systems engineer and retired CEO
of MicroNetworks Corp. of Worcester, Massachusetts; and Dr. Lynton S.
Land, professor emeritus, Department of Geological Sciences, University
of Texas; and from my wife, Susan, who helped with the editing and
research.
All provided comments and recommendations to my draft and most of
their comments were incorporated. I should point out that if there are any
errors, they are mine.
In addition, I appreciate the assistance provided by John Wyzalek,
Robin Lloyd-Starkes and Joselyn Banks-Kyle of Taylor & Francis Group;
and I wish to thank John Cook of SkepticScience.com for the use of several
of his graphics.

xix
About the Author
Gregory T. Haugan, PhD, PMP, is the owner of GLH Incorporated, spe-
cializing in project management support for both U.S. and international
organizations, and an instructor in areas of energy, population, and cli-
mate change. He has more than 40 years of experience as a consultant and
as a government and private-sector official in the planning, scheduling,
management, and operation of projects of all sizes; and in the development�
and implementation of program management information systems.
Dr. Haugan has been active in the field of resources and sustainability for
many years. He has led courses for the Rappahannock Institute for Lifelong
Learning (RILL), including Development of Human Societies: Lessons for
the Northern Neck of Virginia with major emphasis on current problems
with potential shortages in energy and water resources. This was followed
by Oil, Energy and Global Warming. It recognized the indivisibility of the
topics, presented current theories, and discussed the relationship to the
Northern Neck of Virginia and what actions were warranted. In addition, he
has presented two courses on climate change and global warming, address-
ing the issues of the science, the impact, and the mitigation actions, and
presenting the various claims and theories with regard to global warming
phenomena and their current and projected impact on our lives. His inter-
est and knowledge in these areas led to this book.
He has written five project management books published by Management
Concepts, Inc. of Vienna, Virginia, including Effective Work Breakdown
Structures, published in 2002; Project Planning and Scheduling, also pub-
lished in 2002; The Work Breakdown Structure in Government Contracting,
published in 2003. Project Management Fundamentals was published in
2006 and the second edition was published in late 2010. Two of the books
have been translated into Japanese and Chinese.
He and his wife reside in Heathsville, Virginia. For recreation, he hiked
the 100-mile West Highland Way trail in Scotland in 2006. The year before,
he climbed Mt. Whitney in California. He also hiked the Lolo Trail in
Idaho after hiking the Inca Trail in Peru and the Chilkoot Trail in Alaska.
In 2010, he hiked trails in Tuscany between mountain villages�. He is a

xxi
xxii • About the Author

former member of the U.S. Triathlon Team and competed in the world
championships in Wellington, New Zealand, in 1994.
Dr. Haugan received his PhD from the American University, his MBA
from St. Louis University, and his BSME from the Illinois Institute of Tech-
nology. Further information is available on the web at www.pmhaugan.com.
Prologue
It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you in trouble. It’s what you know for
sure that just ain’t so.
—Mark Twain

In Jared Diamond’s book Guns, Germs and Steel, the protagonist, the New
Guinea chieftain Yali, asks a question regarding the relative �inequity in
the distribution of “cargo” around the world. How come Europe and the
Americas had so much “cargo” and the New Guineans so Â�little? We all
originated from the tribes that survived the ice ages some 11,000 years
ago. Diamond’s book attempted to answer that question. In a sense,
this book builds on Guns, Germs and Steel or maybe even the subse-
quent book by Diamond titled Collapse. We are setting the stage for
a selfish question: What changes are coming down the pike that we as
project/program/portfolio managers need to be aware of so that we can
adjust, adapt, and take advantage? How do we construct a sustainable
future? It is selfish because the focus of many other books on these topics
is to identify and propose mitigation policies, or to declare the sky is fall-
ing and tell us why, while I am simply looking at it from a point of view of
identifying and recognizing the current and projected circumstances in
order to help adapt, judge risk, and take advantage of an environment that
is overwhelmingly complex. The problems include a rapidly growing and
changing world population, environmental threats from emissions and
depleting natural resources—all components of a collapse of civilizations.
However, with respect to our civilization, Jared Diamond is an optimist
and he ends his book Collapse with several reasons why he does not expect
our civilization to follow in the footsteps of Easter Islanders, the Incas,
Mayans, and others�. He believes we have learned our lessons from history.
We recognize the need for sustainability. Time will tell.
Some of the material in this book may be considered controversial;
it really is not if you believe facts. However, the reader should look at
the material presented from two perspectives: (1) as a set of normative
statements or standards of what you ought to do considering the body of
scientific data, and (2) as input to a large risk management analysis that
considers options and alternatives and probable impacts. It is not an issue

xxiii
xxiv • Prologue

The New Triple

Constraint:
Population,
Climate, Energy

The Overlay Summary for PCE Overlays Supporting

Concept and Policymakers Appendices
Structure
Population
Constraint

Climate Change
Constraint

Energy
Constraint

FIGURE 0.1
Book organization.

of belief in when the population will reach 10 billion, or whether global

warming and climate change exist, or whether or not there are oil supply
problems; they are easily evaluated by looking at facts and are aspects of
program or enterprise risk management. What should be your position
as a program manager or enterprise manager or strategic planner when
facing decisions regarding the likelihood of specific future events? Should
you buy insurance or self-insure? What if the scientists are wrong? What
if they are correct? What if (insert your source of data) is wrong? What if
(insert your source of data) is correct? You must look at the data—at the
facts. In graduate school I was taught to go to original sources, see what
the actual data say; do not let other people interpret the facts for you.
The book is organized as illustrated in Figure 0.1.
The first part of this book provides a description of the overlay concept
and the major considerations in using an overlay for planning—whether
at a project, program, portfolio, or strategic level. For those interested in
getting right to the meat of the subject and the overlays, a summary for
policymakers� is included. This summary is followed by the major sections
addressing population and climate change, which provide the current data
and forecasts on those subjects and establish the overall new setting for
planning. The last section, on the energy constraint, addresses fossil fuels
and renewable energy solutions and opportunities in the form of a set
of overlays based on a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats
 Prologue • xxv

(SWOT) analysis for the various resources and technologies that will be
needed to accommodate the needs of a growing population faced with
�climate changes and problems with fossil fuels. How do we achieve a sus-
tainable future?

I have thus sketched the general outline of the argument, but I will examine
it more particularly, and I think it will be found that experience, the true
source and foundation of all knowledge, invariably confirms its truth.*
—T. R. Malthus, 1798

* T. R. Malthus, An Essay on the Principle of Population, Originally published 7 June 1798,

(Lexington, KY: Maestro Reprints, November 2010) Chapter 1, p. 7.
1
Sustainability Overlay Concept
and Structure

The Overlay
Concept and
Structure

Overlay Zoning Overlay Criteria PCE Breakdown

Analogy Structure

Chapter 1 outline.

OVERLAY ZONING ANALOGY

In land use planning, overlay zoning is a regulatory tool that creates

a �special zoning district, placed over an existing base zone(s), which
includes special provisions in addition to those in the underlying base
zone. The overlay district can share common boundaries with the
base zone or cut across base zone boundaries. Regulations or incen-
tives are attached to the overlay district to protect a specific resource
or guide development within a special area.*
* University of Wisconsin Center for Land Use Education, Planning and Implementation
Tools, Overlay Zoning, November 2005, http://www.uwsp.edu/cnr/landcenter/pdffiles/
implementation/OverlayZoning.pdf (accessed April 18, 2011).

1
2 • Triple Constraints for Sustainable Projects, Programs, and Portfolios

In land use and community planning, overlay districts are used for
many different purposes:

• to manage development in or near environmentally sensitive areas,

• to protect historical areas, to guide development along transporta-
tion corridors,
• to protect special areas from development, and so forth.

The author has been involved in developing local government zoning

overlays for all of these special considerations.
Overlay zoning districts are created following three basic steps:

1. Define the purpose of the district.

2. Identify the areas that comprise the district, including the scope and
boundaries of the district.
3. Develop specific rules that apply to the identified district.

There are other general considerations that involve the implementation

and administration of overlay zones that include consistency between
the overlay and the basic zoning district involved and the review of the
applicability and usage by higher levels of municipal management and
the general public.
These concepts, purposes, and considerations can be transferred to the
overlays of population impacts, climate changes, and energy constraints
onto our project, program, and enterprise planning. For simplicity, in
future descriptions I will simply refer to program planning rather than the
complete project, program, and enterprise planning.
Figure 1.1 presents a graphic of the overlay concept and the major sec-
tions of this book.

OVERLAY CRITERIA
The application of the analogy of the zoning overlay to an overlay set of
population, climate, and energy constraints for program life cycle plan-
ning is explained in the following text in terms of the three steps of the
previous section used to define an overlay district.
 Sustainability Overlay Concept and Structure • 3

I
RT ION
PA LAT AY
PU RL
PO OVE

II GE
RT AN
PA E CH AY
AT ERL
CLIM OV

III
RT Y
PA ERG LAY
EN VER
O

FIGURE 1.1
Overlay concept.

Purpose
Three major constraints exist that apply to future and ongoing multiyear
projects and programs and apply to programs in portfolios of enterprises.
These are changes in population, climate change, and the availability of
energy—PCE constraints. Most managers have some familiarity with
�various aspects of these constraints and do consider them in their planning.
We believe these have been underrepresented in many planning and pro-
gramming activities for a variety of reasons. The intent of these overlays is
to assist program managers in the consideration of and application of more
robust PCE constraints in their planning and risk analyses.

Applicability
The PCE overlay set is applicable to all projects, programs, and portfolios
whose planning horizon extends into the next decade. All programs are
impacted to some degree by these constraints.
Population factors include any impacts or assumptions regarding
changes in demand, demographics, racial composition, immigration,
migration, birth rates, or death rates. Changes in these factors drastically
impact workforces.
Climate factors include any impacts or assumptions regarding weather,
sea levels, biota, ice, and glaciers that are involved in the performance
of the project end items or in the development of the products, services,
or results that are the purpose of the basic project. The forecast changes
in climate are expected to result in conditions different from what the
Earth has seen for over 10,000 years. It makes no difference whether one
4 • Triple Constraints for Sustainable Projects, Programs, and Portfolios

“believes” the scientists or not; a prudent businessman and planner will

take these risks into account.
Energy factors include any impacts or assumptions regarding the avail-
ability or cost of energy in the management of the program or in the
resulting product, service, or result. It is difficult to identify any program
that doesn’t rely on or involve use of energy in some form.
Indirect factors may, for example, include the impact of population aging
affecting the economic strength of a country, which in turn may reduce
(or increase) a military threat. A reduced military threat may indicate a
change in the performance requirements of a new military aircraft. Or an
arctic construction project may depend upon the continued existence of
permafrost in an area where current data and climate models show sig-
nificant increases in temperature are occurring and continuing to occur,
threatening the stability of the ground. Or a school district is develop-
ing its capital budget for new school construction based on projections of
historic population data in an area that scientists project to be adversely
and seriously impacted by droughts exacerbated by climate change and
impacted by immigration, for example, west Texas.

Specific Rules
The overlays provide specific information and guidance to both the pro-
gram manager and the higher level of management charged with reviewing,
approving, and implementing the plans.
When reviewing a project of any size where an overlay is applicable, it is
important that the program be consistent not only with the content of the
overlays, but with the long-term goals and the overall program/portfolio
plan. That is, the basic schedule, cost, and performance criteria still apply;
the overlay is just that—an overlay—as shown in Figure 1.1.
Consideration of the overlay should be incorporated into the existing
program/portfolio review process for large-scale development programs
and all multiyear life cycle programs. It should become the norm to con-
sider these three new constraints in all planning and how they relate to a
sustainable future.
A series of overlays should be an enterprise-wide requirement and be
part of the criteria in addition to return on investment (ROI) or cost effec-
tiveness or other standard metrics used to select programs and to guide
the program manager. They complement budgeting, scheduling, and
 Sustainability Overlay Concept and Structure • 5

quality/performance activities. Many organizations are already doing this

piecemeal for climate change impacts.

PCE BREAKDOWN STRUCTURE

One of the principal tools in project planning is the work breakdown
structure (WBS), which is used to provide the framework for planning
and to define the scope. This is part of Project Management 101. It is
addressed in the Project Management Book of Knowledge, PMBOK® Guide,
and in many other project management texts and courses. There are two
roles of the work breakdown structure in project portfolio management:
(1) displaying the projects or programs in a logical hierarchical format for
presentation purposes, and (2) using a WBS to design a portfolio manage-
ment system.* The first instance is not really a WBS; it is only using some
of the WBS logic and familiar display techniques to organize the elements
to facilitate communication. Figure 1.2 presents the PCE overlay and the
outline of this book using this first type of WBS. This figure was developed
using WBS ChartPro software.
The plan of this book is to follow a typical approach used in presenting
the results of scientific or analytical data. Just as many major reports start
with an abstract and provide a summary for policymakers, we will pro-
vide the content up front in this synthesis of the discussion and descrip-
tion of each PCE overlay. Since we are not able to predict the future any
better than anyone else, we will also present and discuss scenarios and
then some possible and probable solutions or outcomes that provide the
basis for evaluating the risks involved.
Under or near the heading for each section, the applicable overlay statement
is included in a box. These are also summaries of the material in the section.

* Gregory T. Haugan, Work Breakdown Structures for Projects, Programs and Enterprises (Vienna, VA:
Management Concepts, 2008) p. 190.
 The New Triple
Constraint
Population,
Climate, Energy

The Overlay Summary for PCE Overlays Supporting

Concept and Policymakers Appendices
Structure

Energy A. Scientific
Overlay Zoning Population Climate Change Community
Overview Policies to Constraint Constraint Constraint
Analogy Positions
Complement the Overlays
PCE Overlay
Overlay Criteria Content Introduction to Overview B. Statistical
Analysis Demography Introduction and Inference
Government Definitions
PCE Breakdown Policies Fossil Fuels
Structure Overlay World Population C. Risk
Scenarios History and Management
Private Sector Background of the Nuclear Energy
Policies U.S. Population Science
Overlay Summary D. Geology and
Renewable Climate Change
Age Distribution Climate Energy Sources
and Sustainability Manifestations
Program Planning
Population Climate Change in an Uncertain
Policies and Overlays World
Dilemmas

Planning for a
Different Future
6 • Triple Constraints for Sustainable Projects, Programs, and Portfolios

FIGURE 1.2
PCE overlay WBS.
2
Summary for Policymakers: PCE Overlay

All mankind is divided into three classes; those that are immovable, those
that are movable, and those that move.
—Arabic Proverb

This summary for policymakers provides an overview of the overlays and

their application to life cycle programs of the coming decades. It addresses
the overlays in summary form with the bulk of the remainder of the book
providing their detailed backup, supporting data and information, and
lower level overlays. The diagram below presents an outline of this chapter.

Summary for
Policymakers

Overview Policies to
Complement the
PCE Overlay

Content Overlay Overlay Summary

Analysis Scenarios
Government Private Sector
Policies Policies

General Investment
Government Policies
Policies
Program Policies
World Policies

Chapter 2 outline.

7
8 • Triple Constraints for Sustainable Projects, Programs, and Portfolios

OVERVIEW
This section contains a description of the content or base for the overlays,
then a discussion that puts them in context in the form of scenarios of the
future followed by a brief summary.

Content Analysis of the Population,

Climate Change and Energy (PCE) Overlay *

Overlay: The world has a significantly increasing population, which

will demand more energy to maintain and/or increase its standard
of living. Until public concern and action about carbon emissions
rises, the energy will come primarily from coal and natural gas.
Their prices will probably remain fairly stable because of the large
supply, while the cost of oil increases considerably as the demand
continues to increase in the face of a supply constraint and increas-
ing extraction costs. Climate change resulting from human emis-
sions will slowly and surely cause increasing problems as storms and
droughts become more intense, temperatures and moisture content
in the atmosphere continue to rise, glaciers and ice shelves continue
to melt, sea water levels continue to rise, and the world biota �continue
to be impacted.

This is the future in a single overlay. Timing, however, is not addressed.

The changes will be driven by population growth and population redis-
tribution, climate changes, and energy constraints; all will impact as a
package in the coming decades. An overview of these changes follows:

1. The Population Constraint Overlay has several messages that must

be considered in planning:
a. The world population is growing and will continue to grow from
the current 7 billion to approximately 10 billion by 2080, and is
very likely to level off or grow slowly at a sustainable level from

* A content analysis is a systematic analysis of the content rather than the structure of the concept
to determine the objective or meaning of the concept (American Heritage Dictionary of the English
Language, Houghton Mifflin, 4th Ed., Boston, MA: 397).
 Summary for Policymakers: PCE Overlay • 9

that point onward. The projections of population up to 2050 are

virtually certain because they are based on people already in
the pipeline and their birth and mortality rates are not likely to
change significantly in the next decade.
b. For projections beyond 2050 there is a reasonable confidence in
the numbers because of the completeness and accuracy of the
data and knowledge bases used; therefore it is very likely that the
projections are accurate to the end of the century.*
c. These same databases show the U.S. population will increase by
approximately 100 million people between today and 2050 based
on present birth and death rates, assuming no significant change
in immigration policies or immigration rates.
d. The demographic changes accompanying these population
changes will have a significant impact on social structures, work-
forces, political composition, and immigration and migration
patterns of the world’s peoples.
e. Countries such as those in the European Union, Japan, Russia,
and China are expected to undergo major demographic changes
and perhaps disruptions due to an aging workforce and low birth
rates that will impact the ability of their economies to continue
to grow at current rates.

Population, immigration, and related demographic changes cannot be

ignored in program/portfolio long-range planning.

2. The Climate Change Constraint Overlay contains five basic dimen-

sions that must be considered in planning:
a. Avoiding risk is a standard principle of management; like a tor-
nado or robbery or fire or piracy at sea, you do not have to believe
it will happen, but a responsible manager will review the data,
evaluate the risk, and (1) plan accordingly or (2) hedge, (3) buy
insurance, or (4) self-insure. The latter is similar to taking no
action; sometimes it is deliberate and other times not. Climate
change presents a set of unique risks that must be evaluated and
* Forecasts are generally probabilistic and have ranges depending upon the assumptions or on the
statistical standard deviations derived from the basic data. In this book we keep to the midrange
forecasts wherever possible.
10 • Triple Constraints for Sustainable Projects, Programs, and Portfolios

decisions must be made. Doing nothing is a decision. This over-

lay will help in the evaluation.
b. Climate change is being caused by human emissions of green-
house gases, particularly by combustion of the fossil fuels coal,
oil, and natural gas. There is no natural cycle that explains the
current set of temperature increases. The climate is a global
�system; therefore, to mitigate global climate change, total human
emissions need to be significantly reduced. Reducing emissions
on a global scale requires a global solution. Efforts to reduce
emissions on a global scale will have global costs and benefits;
both sides of the equation are involved in the overlay.
c. Temperatures will continue to rise as CO2, methane, and other
emissions rise and these increasing temperatures, no matter how
slowly they rise, will cause far more adverse effects than favor-
able effects, including more moisture in the atmosphere, melt-
ing of ice sheets and glaciers, and warmer oceans. There will be
net adverse consequences on almost all sectors of the economy
and all regions of the world from the warming climate, including
stronger storms, more heavy precipitation events, more floods,
and rising seas, and these adverse consequences will compound
as warming increases.
d. World biota are all impacted, some positively, some negatively,
but on balance most severely; this includes species extinction
where adaptation does not occur swiftly enough. Invasive species
will move northward from lower latitudes and shifting climate
zones; all programs that depend on the natural environment,
such as bee pollination and farming, will be subject to this con-
straint. Warmer climates in the subarctic, however, may reduce
some climate constraints as growing seasons lengthen and viable
farmland becomes unfrozen.
e. Increased carbon dioxide, CO2, in the atmosphere is causing the
oceans to absorb more CO2, thereby becoming more acidic and
impacting sea life, especially shellfish. CO2 will initially stimu-
late growth in some plants, but has been shown to eventually
cause stunting as the CO2 level increases and temperature rises.

Just near-term population growth is preordained by actions previ-

ously taken, near-term climate change due to temperature increases is
 Summary for Policymakers: PCE Overlay • 11

pre�ordained by current and previous CO2 and other emissions. There is

an approximate decadal lag in the system caused by the slow release of
heat by the oceans, which has a moderating effect. The Earth has not yet
stabilized from the CO2 currently in the system. Continued emissions at
the current rates will seriously impact future generations and must be
a factor in near- and long-term planning if a sustainable future is to be
attained. Both the population and global temperatures are increasing with
inexorable certainty; the results are predictable and need to be overlaid on
decadal planning. The nature of this constraint is such that many of the
opportunities created exist in two areas: carbon emissions reductions and
climate change adaptation schemes; both are important and the overlay
considers these elements.

3. The Energy Constraint Overlay involves three major elements:

fossil fuels, nuclear energy, and renewable energy sources, includ-
ing the new technologies that provide clean energy. This overlay
addresses changes in the energy sector that are occurring and pro-
jected and changes that will seriously constrain future and exist-
ing long-term programs and portfolios. The Energy Constraint
Overlay is where most of the opportunities exist and the Chapter 5
Energy Constraint Overlay section includes a SWOT* analysis of
each energy source to assist in focusing the issues and in applying
the overlay to your programs. The technologies and policies related
to increasing efficiencies, providing alternate energy sources, and
reducing carbon emissions impacts from fossil fuels are extremely
important. The messages that form the basis of this overlay are
as follows:
a. There is abundant coal and natural gas available for energy well
into the next century but not beyond, although not without serious
side effects that may impact supply.
b. The world is probably past or at “peak oil” and this has several
consequences:†
1. Discovery of new sources of oil has not kept pace with
demand for nearly a generation, and extraction costs of the
* Strength-Weakness-Opportunity-Threat.
† Peak oil occurs when it is estimated that only half of the total God-given recoverable supply is still
left in the ground.
12 • Triple Constraints for Sustainable Projects, Programs, and Portfolios

remaining oil are rising since all the “easy” oil has been dis-
covered and extracted.
2. World oil production rates are very likely at or close to their
maximum and the rates will decrease as the years go on as
wells and oil fields are depleted. The production rate reduc-
tion will depend upon (1) the willingness of the consumers
to pay high prices consistent with extraction costs in remote
areas, (2) the validity of the reserve estimates in the Middle
East, and any OPEC policies to conserve reserves and control
the market, and (3) the amount of oil that is really available in
oil sands, shale, the Arctic, and offshore.
3. There will be instability in oil prices, with high peaks and
then drops because prices will be sensitive to small perturba-
tions in the remaining world supply and refinery capacity.
4. There will be significant and continuing increases in prices of
products that depend on oil, such as fertilizers, pharmaceuti-
cals, plastics, and transportation.
5. The overall trend of oil prices will go in only one direction,
up—with an increasing slope.
c. Up to one-third of the U.S. current electric power plants are 40
years old and need modernization or replacing. Climate concerns
related to carbon emissions and other pollutants will provide pres-
sure for closing older coal power plants and for substitutions with
natural gas, which will be the principal replacement fuel at least in
the interim. It is cost competitive and has half the emissions of coal.
d. Nuclear energy was given a setback with the Japanese power plant
earthquake/tsunami problem resulting in a slowdown in the
planning in the United States and Europe. China is expected to
continue the increase in nuclear plants since they do provide clean
energy, although not without some cost and disposal problems.
e. Renewable energy technologies to provide alternatives to coal
and natural gas for generation of energy are expensive and not
cost competitive in most markets at present, but that may change
as research and development (R&D) efforts pay off and as fossil
fuel shortages and supply disturbances increase.
f. There must and will be serious investments in clean technolo-
gies to provide alternatives to fossil fuels, especially coal and oil,
to provide energy to run the world’s economies. Opportunities
exist in this area.
 Summary for Policymakers: PCE Overlay • 13

So as a program manager who has a basic job of balancing cost, sched-

ule and performance/quality, or a balanced portfolio of programs, you
now have an overlay set of three other major constraints or opportunities:
growing population with its increased demand for energy and products
that depend upon cheap energy, the climate change and necessary adapta-
tions and mitigations that also impact the energy sector, and a changing
energy mix to meet a strong and rising demand while reducing carbon
emissions and accommodating oil shortages.
In the next section on scenarios we will address the integration and
interrelation of these constraints to provide a discussion of the overlay
elements. The scenarios are just another way of explaining the role of the
overlays and presenting the conclusions for executive consideration.

Overlay Scenarios
A tool for planning is to establish multiple sets of alternatives and assump-
tions in the form of scenarios and then perform projections and analyze
the results. Following are two scenarios to provide a basis for discussing
options for program and portfolio managers. These are different from
policymakers since policymakers are expected to solve these problems on
a broad scale while our program managers are expected to live with the
problems, solve them for their program, and take advantage of the oppor-
tunities that present themselves (or hedge the risks).
In both scenarios presented, the population forecasts are the same and
are based on credible and accepted U.N. data as discussed in Chapter 3 on
the Population Constraint Overlay. The substantive sections of this book
address these issues in more detail.
Each scenario is a possible overlay in itself because it can provide the
framework for your planning.
Scenario 1: Business as Usual (BAU) Baseline. This scenario assumes
that population growth will continue as expected, there is no near-term
attempt to mitigate climate change, and that energy users are slowly
shifting away from coal into more natural gas and even nuclear fuels,
but nothing� dramatic. In fact, in China, for example, a large number of
coal-fired power plants are being planned and built to meet immediate
needs. This assumption is the basis for the energy figures and graphics
and the Energy Information Agency projections. Technology and political
mandates will provide an increasing percentage of energy from alternative
sources such as wind and solar, but no global concerted action on climate
14 • Triple Constraints for Sustainable Projects, Programs, and Portfolios

change or reducing emissions occurs. The United Nations continues talking

but there is no action—business as usual. Improved and new technology
and an increasing use of coal overseas are sufficient to accommodate a sig-
nificant portion of the increased demand while the basic current levels of
demand are supported by fossil fuels. In other words, increases in demand
will be met by a combination of new technologies and coal with natural
gas as a backup.
So this BAU scenario is the default position and the most likely for the
short term at least. It is where we are starting. There is no overlay for this
since it is business as usual and the overlays all recommend changes to
business as usual.
Scenario 2: Oil prices increase constantly and actions are taken worldwide
to reduce emissions. Population growth continues per the projections. New
technology in renewable energy is sufficient to accommodate a significant
portion of the increased demand while the basic current levels of energy
usage continue to be supported by fossil fuels. Technology improvements
enable more energy to be provided from alternative sources such as wind
and solar. Carbon taxes and cap-and-trade mechanisms are utilized to
dampen demand for fossil fuels and the funds used for energy alternatives
and efficiencies.*
The overlay scenario consists of six layers as follows:

A. The world population data are pretty solid to 2050, so this can be
part of the basic assumptions; beyond 2050 it is likely the popula-
tion will increase to approximately 9 billion and then the growth
will slow significantly, taking until 2083 to reach 10 billion. This
assumes that there will not be severe disruptions caused by war or
climate change.
B. The probability of an oil supply problem and rapidly increasing
prices and all the secondary impacts are very likely, as discussed in
Chapter 18 in the sections on reserves and peak oil. The timing is
somewhat uncertain in the very near term but some ups and downs
in price are anticipated. The impact of speculation is unknown. But
by 2020 there will probably be at least one big spike in price and then
a serious continued increase in oil prices as the production cannot
* Regardless of some political rhetoric, cap-and-trade programs have been effective. Cap-and-trade
is a methodology, a tool, like cost–benefit analysis or discounting and it is the application to the
problem at hand that is important.
 Summary for Policymakers: PCE Overlay • 15

keep up with demand due to supply problems. It is also not clear

exactly how large the remaining reserves of oil really are and there-
fore how quickly the world economy is going to consume them. The
U.S. reserves of natural gas appear to be adequate to the end of the
century, but there is some degree of uncertainty in the secondary
effects of the new fracking process of extracting the gas from shale,
which could impact the price.
C. Concern over oil and energy shortages will have at least these four
impacts:
a. Increased investment in alternative energies such as solar and
wind and nuclear to replace diminishing fossil fuel resources
b. Increased investment in nontraditional oil sources such as oil
sands, biofuels, shale, and the more difficult sources such as
off-shore and Arctic to complement current oil sources
c. Continued investment in technologies to increase energy effi-
ciency and to decrease carbon intensity
d. Increased concern by the military of oil shortages since the mili-
tary machine runs on oil
D. Any worldwide emissions reduction in the near term is unlikely.
It also appears unlikely that the U.S. government would take any
action since it is focused on the near term: always the next election
and secondarily on governance. Political emphasis is on costs, not
benefits. For a politician, the prudent paths are usually business as
usual, oppose any change, or talk change but don’t do it. The current
economic growth of the Chinese, Indian, Brazilian, and other devel-
oping economies is based on increasing energy usage and this will
continue. Until the general populations are convinced that the bene-
fits of taking action to preclude additional significant adverse events
from climate change outweigh the perceived costs of near-term slow-
down of growth, it is unlikely that any emissions reduction will take
place. Cynically, it is unlikely any serious emission reduction effort
will occur until there is a massive tragedy that is clearly linked to
climate change or until a series of major weather events around the
world are all linked. Aggressive emissions reduction, if it occurs, will
have little near-term (2030) impact on global warming and climate
change, although some costs would be incurred. Acceptance of and
adaptation to the effects is the most likely short-term outcome. The
bomb shelters of the Cold War are being replaced by storm shelters
to protect from weather events.
16 • Triple Constraints for Sustainable Projects, Programs, and Portfolios

E. Detailed predictions of the impacts of climate change on specific loca-

tions over the rest of this century are subject to wide variations, espe-
cially after 2050. Continued burning of fossil fuels will continue to
increase the CO2 in the atmosphere, but the full range of impacts this
will produce cannot be precisely determined due to the complexity of
the problem. There is a long list of macro effects that are being forecast
reasonably accurately: sea level rise, glacier melt, increased precipita-
tion, increased drought, shifting seasons, and the like. Data are avail-
able on each and these need to be considered in the detailed planning.
F. Even if carbon emissions are controlled and held to current limits,
we are committed to an increasing temperature rise due to the lag in
the system. The planet has already warmed 1.4°F and there is another
1.0°F in the pipeline.*

What is likely to happen is a continued climate change with weather

becoming increasingly severe, peak oil, and no action on emissions until
sometime later. This is not the preferred scenario, nor the one that should
be encouraged.
The scenario analysis needs to be recast as an overlay implemented
through risk analysis. In this general case we are using the classic defini-
tion of risk as cost of the consequence versus the probability that it will
occur. A methodology is discussed in Appendix C: Risk Management.
It is suggested that the risk items, if you prepare a risk matrix, be cat-
egorized by the timing of the impacts. The results are different if you are
looking at melting of the Greenland Ice Cap or the change in an Asian
monsoon because of the timing of the consequences. The monsoon is
immediate and the melting takes many years before there is a noticeable
effect on shorelines. The risk analysis should be based on observed data
and the likely impact on future activities. There are many charlatans who
are serving special interests that are using deliberate misinformation to
distort climate change realism. Base your risk analyses on solid data such
as that referenced herein.
The slow change in most climate events makes most policymakers reluc-
tant to make long-term investments beyond their expected terms of office.†
But, as the person involved in making investment decisions and managing
* Skeptical Science, http://www.skepticalscience.com/prudent-risk.html (accessed March 3, 2011).
† Stephen Schneider, “Confidence, Consensus and the Uncertainty Cops: Tackling Risk Management
in Climate Change” in Bill Bryson, ed., Seeing Further: The Story of Science, Discovery & the Genius
of the Royal Society (London: the Royal Society and Harper Collins, 2010) pp. 424–443.
 Summary for Policymakers: PCE Overlay • 17

life cycle programs, program and portfolio managers are obliged to per-
form risk analyses of options and take into account the consequences and
probability of impacts of the three constraints occurring in the identifica-
tion of consequences.
The succeeding sections of this book present the supporting data regard-
ing population, climate, and energy with credible projections by experts of
the current trends out to about 2050 and beyond.

“The theory on which the truth of this position depends appears to me

so extremely clear that I feel at a loss to conjecture what part of it can
be denied.”*
—T. R. Malthus, 1798

Overlay Summary
There are only five talking points or major overlays:

1. The population is growing and the characteristics of the nature of the

growth, i.e., demographics, will be different in the coming decades
from the past decades.
2. Severe resource shortages such as oil and water will occur and are
being predicted.
3. Technology is important and needs to be sponsored in the areas of
alternate fuels and carbon-free sources of energy, but these may not
arrive in time to compensate for the resource shortages.
4. Climate CO2-mitigation efforts are critical and their total costs are
significantly lower than the costs resulting from business as usual,
and the benefits from mitigation have been shown to be much higher
than the costs.
5. Adaptation to resource shortages and adverse climate impacts will
create many opportunities as well as problems.

Sustainability depends on the recognition of these drivers as situations

that need to be addressed.
One resource I have not addressed that needs further exploration is the
looming global fresh water shortage. Not everywhere, Scotland will do
fine, but all current desert climates are at risk; many regions that rely on
snow or glacier melt are at risk, and all regions that rely on aquifers are at
* Malthus, Chapter 2 in Bryson, Seeing Further, p. 12.
18 • Triple Constraints for Sustainable Projects, Programs, and Portfolios

risk. The general pattern of climate change is that areas of the world that
are dry will get even drier and areas that are wet will get even wetter.
Malthus said: “That the difficulties of life contribute to generate talents,
every day’s experience must convince us. The exertions that men find it
necessary to make, in order to support themselves or families, frequently
awaken faculties that might otherwise have lain forever dormant, and it
has been commonly remarked that new and extraordinary situations gen-
erally create minds adequate to grapple with the difficulties in which they
are involved.”*

POLICIES TO COMPLEMENT THE PCE OVERLAY

We properly revere our forefathers for making material and mortal sacri-
fices for our benefit. One only hopes that our descendants will hold us in
similar regard.†

Policies to
Complement the
PCE Overlay

Government Private Sector

Policies Policies

General World Policies Investment Program Policies

Government Policies
Policies

Government Policies

Overlay: Encourage government policies that consider population,

climate change, and energy as a package. Influence the initiation of
processes for adaptation and for mitigation of problems.

* Malthus, Chapter 19 in Bryson, Seeing Further, p. 102.

† Climate Scientist Kerry Emanuel from MIT at the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on
Science Space and Technology hearing on Climate Change: Examining the Processes Used to
Create Science and Policy, March 31, 2011.
 Summary for Policymakers: PCE Overlay • 19

General Government Policies

To my knowledge, there have been no scientific or scholarly analyses or
assessments of the triple constraints of population, climate change, and
energy as a package. One of the early writers, Paul Ehrlich (1971), with
his book, The Population Bomb, introduced the idea that our patterns of
consumption of resources and population were on a collision course with
sustainability. One popular book by Thomas Friedman addresses two of
these in easy-to-read prose focusing on population and climate change.*
Another is Laurence Smith’s book on The World in 2050, which focuses on
the northern latitudes and addresses demographic trends, resource short-
ages, and climate change.† For most others, the focus is usually on one or
the other with simplifying assumptions made regarding the other two.
A partial exception is a study published in the Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences that considered the substantial changes in popula-
tion size, age structure, and urbanization that are expected in many parts
of the world this century.‡ Although such changes can affect energy use
and greenhouse gas emissions, emissions scenario analyses have either left
them out or treated them in a fragmentary or overly simplified manner.
In their analysis that accounts for a range of demographic dynamics, they
show, for example, that slowing population growth could provide 16–29%
of the emissions reductions suggested as being necessary by 2050 to avoid
dangerous climate change. On the other hand, you can interpret their
results and conclude that a business-as-usual growth would result in sig-
nificantly increased emissions from today’s levels. They also find that aging
and urbanization reduce emissions in particular world regions because of
reduced energy usage per capita. This is a step toward generating detailed
data so that intelligent decision making can proceed.
Many sources that are referenced address government policies or rec-
ommendations concerning population, energy and fossil fuels, and cli-
mate changes. Some are easy to read like Mann and Kump, or Gore, or
Flannery, or Krupp and Horn, or Craven (see bibliography for complete
references) but the most comprehensive is the 2007 International Panel on
* Thomas L Friedman, Hot, Flat, and Crowded: Why We Need a Green Revolution and How It Can
Renew America (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2008).
† Laurence C. Smith, The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization’s Northern Future
(New York: Dutton, Penguin Group, 2010).
‡ Brian C. O’Neill, et al., “Global Demographic Trends and Future Carbon Emissions,” Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA 107, no. 41 (October 12, 2010): 17521–17526. http://
www.pnas.org/content/107/41/17521.full (accessed February 16, 2011).
20 • Triple Constraints for Sustainable Projects, Programs, and Portfolios

Climate Change (IPCC), Report from Working Group III, Mitigation of

Climate Change, which has nearly a thousand pages of analysis and recom-
mendations, including technical explanations and rationale. A new special
IPCC report has updated findings on the status and application of renew-
able energy sources.* Dr. James Hansen has strong recommendations in
his book (see bibliography). Other typical references are narrowly defined
reports such as Chesapeake Futures,† which looks at the Chesapeake Bay
watershed, and “Choices for the 21st Century” or Global Climate Change
Impacts in the United States,‡ or America’s Climate Choices,§ recently
prepared by the National Research Council of the National Academy of
Sciences at the request of Congress.

World Policies

Overlay: The basic policy that should be followed is fairly simple: the
governments of the world should immediately take dual actions to
mitigate and adapt to climate change, take actions to accommodate
expected reductions in the availability of cheap oil and do both in
the context of a rapidly increasing and aging world population.

We are the first generation facing the evidence of global change. It therefore
falls upon us to change our relationship with the planet, in order to tip the
scales towards a sustainable world for future generations.¶

Energy Information Agency (EIA) data** show that if there are no new
climate policies, worldwide increases in output per capita and relatively
moderate population growth overwhelm projected improvements in
* IPCC Working Group III, Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change
Mitigation (SRREN) (New York: Cambridge University Press, May 2011).
† Donald F. Boesch and Jack Greer, eds., Chesapeake Futures: Choices for the 21st Century (Edgewater,

MD: Chesapeake Bay Program, Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee, 2003).
‡ Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson, eds., Global Climate Change Impacts in the

United States (New York: Cambridge University Press, US Global Change Research Program, 2009).
§ National Research Council, America’s Climate Choices (Washington, DC: National Academies

Press, 2011).
¶ 3rd Nobel Laureate Symposium on Global Sustainability, Stockholm Sweden 16–19 May 2011,

The Stockholm Memorandum, p. 5, http://globalsymposium2011.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/

The-Stockholm-Memorandum.pdf (accessed May 24, 2011).
** U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2011, Report DOE/EIA-0484

(2011), September 2011, Page 144. http://205.254.135.24/forecasts/ieo/pdf/0484(2011).pdf. Last

accessed March 3, 2011.
 Summary for Policymakers: PCE Overlay • 21

the amounts of energy and carbon used per person; meanwhile CO2
keeps rising.
Emphasis on increasing efficiency by reducing energy intensity (energy
usage per capita) appears to have been relatively effective worldwide.
However, rising standards of living, as shown by the increasing output per
capita and an increasing population, are generating increasing emissions.
It is apparent that the current business-as-usual path will result in increas-
ing total emissions even as the energy intensity and carbon intensity (CO2
per person) decrease. The world is increasing its efficiency and reducing
carbon usage per capita, but with the increasing population the total emis-
sions are increasing.
Policies need to encourage innovation in alternate energy sources since
technology is needed to replace most of the energy currently provided by
fossil fuels with carbon-neutral sources. The concern about reliance on
foreign oil has been improperly cast as only a concern about unfriendly
sources. It will soon be replaced by concern about having enough foreign
and domestic oil to last until we have developed alternatives to meet the
demands of an increasing population.
Population increases and demographic changes need to be incorporated
into decision making and policies of both government and private sector
institutions. Increasing from 7 to 10 billion persons in the world between now
and 2080 is not a trivial event. Increasing from 300 million to 400 million�
persons by 2050 in the United States is also not a trivial event. Joel Kotkin’s
book (The Next Hundred Million) addresses nicely his opinions and analy-
ses of how we will absorb them, and where they will live and work, and
Laurence Smith’s book (The World in 2050) looking at the northern latitudes
in 2050 also contains implied necessary policies as he looks at demographic
trends, natural resources demand, climate change, and globalization.
As mentioned earlier, a one-sentence summary from the climate science
world: “[U]nmitigated climate change would, in the long term, be likely to
exceed the capacity of natural, managed and human systems to adapt.”*

Private Sector Policies

It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent,
but the one most responsive to change.
—Charles Darwin
* IPCC Working Group II, Special Report, p. 71.
22 • Triple Constraints for Sustainable Projects, Programs, and Portfolios

Overlay: Encourage private sector organizations to consider the

New Triple Constraint Overlays in their strategic planning. The
major current shortfall is accounting for climate change. Insurance
companies and some major corporations are beginning to focus
on all three since they have to set rates based on probabilities of
these occurring.

Most of the readers of this book will be either in the private sector
or working managing government projects and programs. As program
managers you are involved in life cycle management of programs and as
a port�folio manager you are selecting new programs for investment. The
world is already seeing dramatic evidence of climate change and the New
Triple Constraint at work. Wind and solar energy sources are becom-
ing ubiquitous on the landscape as a small step away from fossil fuels.
The United States just finished its 10-year census illustrating the demo-
graphic changes in the country since the year 2000. They are dramatic in
the movement of people and the change in ethnic mix and implications
for the future.
The energy industry and related associations regularly provide estimates
of oil, coal, and natural gas reserves and the data and analyses are pub-
lished by the Energy Information Administration and are available to all.
The following section addresses specific policies of some segments of the
world economy.

Investment Policies Considering Climate Change

Investment policies considering population and energy are easily estab-
lished and rather straightforward. However, apparently few major com-
panies are thinking about the impacts of climate change and adaptation,
according to a survey discussed in a National Research Council report.*
Only about 25% were providing information requested by investors
regarding efforts to plan for the effects of climate change. This is not
the case in the financial community, especially in Europe. In February
2008, Citigroup, JP Morgan, Chase, and Morgan Stanley launched
* National Research Council, Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change (Washington, DC:
National Academies Press, 2010) p. 67.
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
The carelessness, wastefulness, thievishness, of slaves is a very old
story, and in the middle of the fourth century had been bitterly
referred to[1728] by the emperor Julian. That Vegetius does not
advise the owner of these slave grooms to make a vilicus responsible
for seeing that his orders are obeyed, is probably due to the rigidly
technical character of the treatise: he is not writing on the
management of estates.
 CHRISTIAN WRITERS
LVII. LACTANTIUS.
When we turn to the Christian writers, whom it is convenient to
take by themselves, we pass into a different atmosphere. Of rhetoric
there is plenty, for most of them had been subjected to the same
literary influences as their Pagan contemporaries. But there is a
marked difference of spirit, more especially in one respect very
important from the point of view of the present inquiry. Christianity
might counsel submission to the powers that be: it might recognize
slavery as an institution: it might enjoin on the slave to render
something beyond eye-service to his legal master. But it could never
shake off the fundamental doctrine of the equal position of all men
before their Almighty Ruler, and the prospect of coming life in
another world, in which the standards and privileges dominating the
present one would go for nothing. Therefore a Christian writer
differed from the Pagan in his attitude towards the poor and
oppressed. He could sympathize with them, not as a kindly though
condescending patron, but as one conscious of no abiding
superiority in himself. The warmth with which the Christian
witnesses speak is genuine enough. The picture may be somewhat
overdrawn or too highly coloured, and we must allow for some
exaggeration, but in general it is surely true to fact.
First comes Lactantius, who has already[1729] been once quoted.
Writing under Constantine, he speaks of the Diocletian or Galerian
persecution as a contemporary. The passage[1730] to be cited here
describes the appalling cruelty of the fiscal exactions ordered by
Galerius to meet the pressing need of the government for more
money. It was after the abdication of Diocletian and Maximian in
305. The troubles that ensued had no doubt helped to render
financial necessities extreme. The remark, that he now practised
against all men the lessons of cruelty learnt in tormenting the
Christians, must refer to Galerius. The account of the census[1731],
presumably that of 307, is as follows. ‘What brought disaster on the
people and mourning on all alike, was the sudden letting loose of
the census on the provinces and cities. Census-officers, sparing
nothing, spread all over the land, and the scenes were such as when
an enemy invades a country and enslaves the inhabitants. There was
measuring of fields clod by clod, counting of vines and fruit trees,
cataloguing of every sort of animals, recording of the human[1732]
heads. In the municipalities (civitatibus) the common folk of town
and country put on the same[1733] footing, everywhere the market-
place crammed with the households assembled, every householder
with his children and slaves. The sounds of scourging and torturing
filled the air. Sons were being strung up to betray parents; all the
most trusty slaves tortured to give evidence against their masters,
and wives against husbands. If all these means had failed, men were
tortured for evidence against themselves, and when they broke
down under the stress of pain they were credited with
admissions[1734] never made by them. No plea of age or infirmity
availed them: informations were laid against the invalids and
cripples: the ages of individuals were recorded by guess, years
added to those of the young and subtracted from those of the old.
All the world was filled with mourning and grief.’ In short, Romans
and Roman subjects were dealt with as men of old dealt with
conquered foes. ‘The next step was the paying[1735] of moneys for
heads, a ransom for a life. But the whole business was not entrusted
to the same body of officials (censitoribus); one batch was followed
by others, who were expected to make further discoveries: a
continual doubling of demands went on, not that they discovered
more, but that they made additions arbitrarily, for fear they might
seem to have been sent to no purpose. All the while the numbers of
live stock were falling, and mankind dying; yet none the less tribute
was being paid on behalf of the dead, for one had to pay for leave to
live or even to die. The only survivors were the beggars from whom
nothing could be wrung, immune for the time from wrongs of any
sort by their pitiful destitution.’ He goes on to declare that, in order
to prevent evasion of the census on pretence of indigence, a number
of these poor wretches were taken out to sea and drowned.
In this picture[1736] we may reasonably detect high colouring and
perhaps downright exaggeration. Probably the grouping together of
horrors reported piecemeal from various quarters has given to the
description as a whole a somewhat deceptive universality. That the
imperial system, though gradually losing ground, held its own
against unorganized barbarism for several more centuries, seems
proof positive that no utter destruction of the economic fabric took
place in the census to which Lactantius refers. But that the pressure
exerted by the central power, and the responsive severity of officials,
were extreme, and that the opportunities for extortion were seized
and cruelly used, may fairly be taken for fact on his authority. This
was not the beginning of sufferings to the unhappy tillers of the soil,
nor was it the end. One census might be more ruinous to their
wellbeing than another: it was always exhausting, and kept the
farmers in terror. But they had not as yet reached the stage of
thinking it better to bear the yoke of barbarian chieftains than to
remain under the corrupt and senseless maladministration of
imperial Rome.

LVIII. SULPICIUS SEVERUS.

The life and doings of the famous saint of Gaul, Martin of Tours, a
Pannonian by birth, were chronicled by Sulpicius Severus, writing
soon after 400, in an enthusiastic biography still in existence. In
another work occurs a passage[1737] narrating one of his hero’s
many miracles; and the story is too artlessly illustrative of the
behaviour of the military and the state of things on the public roads,
not to be mentioned here. Martin was travelling on his ecclesiastical
duties, riding on an ass with friends in company. The rest being for a
moment detained, Martin went on alone for a space. Just then a
government car (fiscalis raeda) occupied by a party of soldiers was
coming along the road. The mules drawing it shied at the unfamiliar
figure of the saint in his rough and dark dress. They got entangled in
their harness, and the difficulty of disentangling them infuriated the
soldiers, who were in a hurry. Down they jumped and fell upon
Martin with whips and staves. He said not a word, but took their
blows with marvellous patience, and his apparent indifference only
enraged them the more. His companions picked him up all battered
and bloody, and were hastening to quit the scene of the assault,
when the soldiers, on trying to make a fresh start, were the victims
of a miracle. No amount of beating would induce the mules to stir.
Supernatural influence was suspected and made certain by discovery
of the saint’s identity. Abject repentance was followed by gracious
forgiveness, and mules and soldiers resumed their journey. Now the
point of interest to us is the matter-of-fact way in which this
encounter is narrated. That a party of the military should bully
peaceful civilians on the high road is too commonplace an event to
evoke any special comment or censure. But it is clearly an edifying
fact that violence offered to a holy man did not escape divine
punishment. There is no suggestion that similar brutality to an
ordinary rustic would have met with any punishment human or
divine. Laws framed for the protection of provincials[1738] against
illegal exactions and to prevent encroachments of the military[1739]
remained on the statute-book, but in remote country parts they
were dead letters. It is interesting to recall that Martin had in his
youth served for some years as a soldier. As the son of a veteran, his
enrolment[1740] came in the ordinary course. But, though he is said
to have been efficient, he did not like the profession and got his
discharge with relief. His life covered about the last three quarters of
the fourth century.

LIX. SALVIAN.
 The calamities that befel the Roman world in the fourth century
led to much recrimination between Pagan and Christian, each
blaming the other for misfortunes generally regarded as the signal
expression of divine wrath. Symmachus had been answered by
Ambrose, and Christian interpretation of the course of human history
produced its classic in Augustine’s great work de civitate Dei early in
the fifth century. About the same time Orosius wrote his earnest but
grotesque historiae adversus paganos, an arbitrary and superficial
distortion of history, interesting as a specimen of partisan
composition. But it is not till the middle of the century that we come
upon a Christian author who gives us a graphic picture of the
sufferings of the people in a Province of the empire, and a working
theory of their causes, strictly from a pious Christian’s point of view.
This is Salvian, an elder of the Church at Massalia. His evidence is
cited by all historians, and must be repeated here. The main thesis is
that all the woes and calamities of the age are judgments of God
provoked by the gross immorality[1741] of the Roman world. So far
from imputing all vices and crimes to the Heathen and the Pagan, he
regards them as shared by all men: but he draws a sharp line
between those who sin in ignorance, knowing no better, and those
who profess the principles of a pure Christianity and yet sin against
the light that is in them. For the barbarians are either Heathen or
Heretics (he is thinking of the Arians), while in the empire the
Orthodox church prevails. And yet the barbarians prosper, while the
empire decays. Why? simply because even in their religious darkness
the barbarians are morally superior to the Romans. For our present
purpose it is the economic and social phenomena as depicted by
Salvian that are of interest, and I proceed to give an abstract of the
passage[1742] in which he expounds his indictment of Roman
administration and the corrupt influences by which it is perverted
from the promotion of prosperity and happiness to a cause of misery
and ruin.
The all-pervading canker is the oppression of the poor by the rich.
The heavy burdens of taxation are thrown upon the poor. When any
relief is granted, it is intercepted by the rich. Franks Huns Vandals
and Goths will have none of these iniquities, and Romans living
among those barbarians also escape them. Hence the stream of
migration sets from us to them, not from them to us. Indeed our
poor folk would migrate in a body, but for the difficulty of
transferring their few goods their poor hovels and their families. This
drives them to take another course. They put themselves under the
guardianship and protection of more powerful persons,
surrendering[1743] to the rich like prisoners of war, and so to speak
passing under their full authority and control. But this protection is
made a pretext for spoliation. For the first condition of protection is
the assignation[1744] of practically their whole substance to their
protectors: the children’s inheritance is sacrificed to pay for the
protection of their parents. The bargain is cruel and one-sided, a
monstrous and intolerable wrong. For most of these poor wretches,
stripped of their little belongings and expelled from their little farms,
though they have lost their property, have still to bear the tribute on
the properties lost: the possession is withdrawn, but the
assessment[1745] remains: the ownership is gone, but the burden of
taxation is crushing them still. The effects of this evil are
incalculable. The intruders (pervasores) are settled down (incubant)
on their properties, while they, poor souls, are paying the tributes on
the intruders’ behalf. And this condition passes on to their children.
So they who have been despoiled by the intrusion[1746] of
individuals are being done to death by the pressure of the state
(publica adflictione), and their livelihood is taken from them by
squeezing as their property was by robbery. Some, wiser or taught
by necessity, losing their homes and little farms through intrusions or
driven by the tax-gatherers to abandon them through inability to
keep them, find their way to the estates of the powerful, and
become[1747] serf-tenants (coloni) of the rich. Like fugitives from the
enemy or the law, not able to retain their social birthright, they bow
themselves[1748] to the mean lot of mere sojourners: cast out of
property and position, they have nothing left to call their own, and
are no longer their own masters. Nay, it is even worse. For though
they are admitted (to the rich men’s estates) as strangers (advenae),
residence operates to make them[1749] natives of the place. They
are transformed as by a Circe’s cup. The lord of the place, who
admitted them as outside[1750] aliens, begins to treat them as his
own (proprios): and so men of unquestioned free birth are being
turned into slaves. When we are putting our brethren into bondage,
is it strange[1751] that the barbarians are making bondsmen of us?
This is something beyond[1752] mere partisan polemic. It finds the
source of misery and weakness in moral decay. Highly coloured, the
picture is surely none the less true. The degradation of the rustic
population presents itself in two stages. First, the farmer, still owning
his little farm (agellus, rescula), finds that, what with legal burdens
and illegal extortions, his position is intolerable. So he seeks the
protection[1753] of a powerful neighbour, who exploits his
necessities. Apparently he acquires control of the poor man’s land,
but contrives to do it in such a form as to leave him still liable to
payment of the imperial dues. That this iniquity was forbidden[1754]
by law mattered not: corrupt officials shut their eyes to the doings of
the rich. From the curiales of the several communities no help was
to be looked for. Salvian declares[1755] that they were tyrants to a
man. And we must not forget that they themselves were forced into
office and held responsible for paying in full the dues they were
required to collect. The great machine ground all, and its cruel
effects were passed on from stronger to weaker, till the peasant was
reached and crushed by burdens that he could not transmit to
others. The second stage is the inevitable sequel. The poor man’s lot
is more intolerable than before. His lesson is learnt, and he takes the
final step into the status of a rich man’s colonus. Henceforth his lord
is liable[1756] for his dues, but he is himself the lord’s serf, bound to
the soil on which his lord places him, nominally free, but unable to
stir from the spot[1757] to which his labour gives a value. If he runs
away, the hue and cry follows him, and he is brought ignominiously
back to the servile punishment that awaits him—unless he can make
his way to some barbarian tribe. Whether he would find himself so
much better off in those surroundings as Salvian seems to imply,
must be left doubtful. Any family that he might leave behind would
remain in serfage under conditions hardly improved by his desertion.

LX. APOLLINARIS SIDONIUS.

The last of our array of witnesses is Apollinaris Sidonius[1758]

(about 430-480), a writer whose life is singularly illustrative of the
confused period in which the Roman empire was tottering and the
series of luckless emperors was ended in the West. Britain had been
finally lost in the time of Honorius. The Armorican provinces had
rebelled, and even now the hold of Rome on them was slight and
precarious. The rest of Gaul and much of Spain and Africa had been
subject to barbarian inroads, and numbers of the invaders were
settled in the country: for instance, the Western Goths were fully
established in Aquitania. But the Roman civilization was by no means
wiped out. Roman landlords still owned large estates: Romans of
culture still peddled with a degenerate rhetoric and exchanged their
compositions for mutual admiration. Panegyrics on shadowy
emperors were still produced in verse and prose, and the modern
reader may often be amazed to note the way in which the troubles
of the time could be complacently ignored. Above all, there was the
Church, closely connected with Rome, claiming to be Catholic and
Orthodox, a stable organization, able to make itself respected by the
barbarians. That the latter were Arian heretics was indeed a cause of
friction, though the Arians were destined to go under. The
conversion of the Franks under the Catholic form did not give Roman
Christianity the upper hand till 496. But the power of bishops, ever
growing[1759] since the days of Constantine, was throughout a
powerful influence holding the various communities together,
maintaining law and order, and doing much for the protection of
their own people. A native of Lugudunum, the chief city of Gaul,
Sidonius came of a noble and wealthy family, and his social position
evidently helped him in his remarkable career. In 468 he was city
prefect at Rome, barely eight years before Odovacar removed the
last of the titular Western emperors. We find him anxiously
concerned[1760] with the old food-question, like his predecessor
Symmachus, and not less endeavouring to cooperate harmoniously
with the praefectus annonae. For a hungry rabble, no doubt fewer in
number, still hung about the Eternal city, though its services in the
way of applause were no longer in appreciable demand.
From about 471 Sidonius was bishop[1761] of Arverni (Clermont in
Auvergne), and performed his difficult duties with efficiency and
dignity, a sincerely pious man with a good deal of the grand seigneur
about him. Moving about on duty or seeking restful change, he was
often visiting country houses, his own or those of friends, receiving
or returning hospitality. His references to these visits lead to
descriptions[1762] of many pleasant places, and pictures of life in the
society of cultivated gentlemen to which he belonged. There is
hardly any mention of the suffering farmers of whom Salvian speaks
so eloquently. Yet I hesitate to charge Salvian with gross
exaggeration and imaginative untruth. Not only do the two men look
from different points of view. Sidonius is writing some twenty years
later than Salvian, and much had happened in the meantime. The
defeat of Attila in 451 by the armies of the Romans and Western
Goths had not only saved Gaul from the Huns, but had greatly
improved the relations between Goth and Roman. And it is to be
noted that, in a passage[1763] mentioning the victory of the allies
and the reception of Thorismund the Gothic king as a guest at
Lugudunum, Sidonius praises his correspondent[1764] for his share in
lightening the burdens of the landowners. Now Salvian knows
nothing of the battle of 451, and indeed does not regard the Huns
as being necessarily enemies of Rome. It seems certain that for the
rustics things were changed for the better. Not that the farmer was
his own master, but that the great Roman taxing-machine was no
longer in effective action. A great part of Gaul had passed under
Teutonic lords. If the subjects were exposed to their caprice, it was
of a more personal character, varying with individuals and likely to
be modified by their personal qualities. This was a very different
thing from the pressure of the Roman official hierarchy, the lower
grades of which were themselves squeezed to satisfy the demands
of the higher, and not in a position to spare their victims, however
merciful their own inclinations might be.
But though the establishment of barbarian kingdoms, once the
raiding invasions were over, had its good side from the working
farmer’s point of view, much of the old imperial system still lingered
on. The power of the Catholic Church stood in the way of complete
revolution, and the Church was already[1765] a landowner. Roman
traditions died hard, and among them it is interesting to note the
exertion of private interest on behalf of individuals and causes in
which an honourable patron felt some concern. Thus we find
Sidonius writing[1766] on behalf of a friend who wants to buy back
an ancestral estate with which recent troubles have compelled him
to part. Great stress is laid on the point that the man is not grasping
at pecuniary profit but actuated by sentimental considerations: in
short, the transaction proposed is not a commercial one. The person
addressed is entreated to use his influence[1767] in the applicant’s
favour; and we can only infer that he is asked to put pressure on the
present owner to part with the property, probably to take for it less
than the market price. Another letter[1768] is to a bishop, into whose
district (territorium) the bearer, a deacon, fled for refuge to escape a
Gothic raid. There he scratched a bit of church-land and sowed a
little corn. He wants to get in his crop without deductions. The
bishop is asked to treat him with the consideration usually shewn to
the faithful[1769]; that is, not to require of him the season’s
rent[1770]. If this favour is granted him, the squatter reckons that he
will do as well as if he were farming in his own district, and will be
duly grateful. Very likely a fair request, but Sidonius does not leave it
to the mere sense of fairness in a brother bishop. To another bishop
he writes a long letter[1771] of thanks for his thoughtful munificence.
After the devastation of a Gothic raid, further damage had been
suffered by fires among the crops. The ensuing distress affected
many parts of Gaul, and to relieve it this worthy sent far and wide
bountiful gifts of corn. The happy results of his action have earned
the gratitude of numerous cities, and Sidonius is the mouthpiece of
his own Arverni. The affair illustrates the beneficence of good
ecclesiastics in troubled times. For Gaul was not enjoying tranquil
repose. The barbarians were restless, and the relations[1772]
between their kings and the failing empire were not always friendly.
Religious differences too played a part in preventing the coalescence
of Gallo-Roman and Teuton. The good bishop just referred to is
praised by Sidonius as a successful converter of heretics.
The fine country houses with their vineyards and oliveyards and
general atmosphere of comfort and plenty shew plainly that the
invasions and raids had not desolated all the countryside. The first
need of the invaders was food. Wanton destruction was not in their
own interest, and the requisitioning of food-stuffs was probably their
chief offence, naturally resented by those who had sown and reaped
for their own consumption. If we admit this supposition, it follows
that their operations, like those of other successful invaders, would
be directed mainly to the lowland districts, where most of the food-
stuffs were produced. Now the country houses of Sidonius and his
friends were, at least most of them, situated in hilly country, often at
a considerable distance from the main[1773] roads, among pleasant
surroundings which these kindly and cultivated gentlemen were well
qualified to enjoy. It is evident that some, perhaps many, of these
snug retreats were not seriously[1774] molested, at all events in
southern and south-eastern Gaul. Roughly speaking, the old and
most thoroughly Romanized provinces, the chief cities of which were
Lugudunum and Narbo, were still seats (indeed the chief seats) of
Roman civilization. It was there that the culture of the age survived
in literary effort sedulously feeding on the products and traditions of
the past. Sidonius thinks it a pity[1775] that men of education and
refinement should be disposed to bury their talents and capacity for
public service in rural retreats, whether suburban or remote. The
truth probably was that town life had ceased to be attractive to men
unconcerned in trade and not warmly interested in religious
partisanship. The lord of a country manor, surrounded by his
dependants, could fill his store-rooms and granaries[1776] with the
produce of their labour. He still had slaves[1777] to wait on him,
sometimes even to work on the land. With reasonable kindliness and
care on his part, he could be assured of comfort and respect, the
head of a happy rustic community. The mansions of these gentry,
sometimes architecturally[1778] fine buildings, were planted in spots
chosen for local advantages, and the library was almost as normal a
part of the establishment as the larder. Some of the owners of these
places gave quite as much of their time and attention to literary
trifling as to the management of their estates. The writing of letters,
self-conscious and meant for publication, after the example of Pliny
the younger, was a practice of Sidonius. The best specimen of this
kind is perhaps the long epistle[1779] in which he describes minutely
a place among the foot-hills of the Alps. Every attraction of nature
seconded by art is particularized, down to the drowsy tinkling of the
bells on the mountain flocks accompanied by the shepherd’s pipe.
No doubt the effective agriculture[1780] of Gaul had little in common
with these Arcadian scenes. The toiling coloni, serfs of a barbarian
chief or a Roman noble, were all the while producing the food
needed to support the population; and it is a convincing proof of the
superficiality of Sidonius as an observer of his age that he practically
ignores them.
To attempt a full description of society in Roman Gaul of the fifth
century is quite beyond my scope. It has already been admirably
done by Sir Samuel Dill. But there are a few points remaining to be
discussed as relevant to my subject. That the decline of the middle
class, and the passing of large areas of land into few hands, was a
process forwarded by inability to pay debts incurred, is extremely
probable. It had been going on for many centuries. But I do not see
that the evidence of Sidonius suggests that this evil was in his time
especially prevalent. The case cited[1781] is peculiar. The borrower is
expressly stated not to have mortgaged any of his land. The loan
was only secured by a written bond which fixed the interest[1782] at
12% per annum. This had been ten years in arrear, and the total
debt was now doubled. The debtor fell ill, and pressure was put on
him by officials employed to collect debts. I infer that the lack of real
security prompted this dunning of a sick man, for fear the personal
security might lapse by his death. Sidonius, a friend of the creditor,
undertook to plead with him for at least some stay of action. This
man had lately been ordained, and Sidonius (not yet himself in
orders, I think,) was evidently surprised to note the simple religious
life led by him in his country villa. And he needed little entreaty, but
acted up to what he considered his duty to a brother Christian. He
not only granted further time for payment, but remitted the whole of
the accrued interest, claiming only the principal sum lent. Such
conduct may have been, and probably was, exceptional; but I
cannot argue from it that heartless usurers were eating up the small
landowners of Gaul.
So too the case of the young man[1783] of good position who cast
off a slave mistress and wedded a young lady of good family,
reputation, and property, may have been exceptional. Sidonius takes
it all very coolly, and mildly improves the occasion. A far more
interesting affair is one in a lower station of life, of which I must say
a few words. In a brief letter[1784] to his friend Pudens he says ‘The
son of your nurse has raped my nurse’s daughter: it is a shocking
business, and would have made bad blood between you and me,
only that I saw at once you did not know what to do in the matter.
You begin by clearing yourself of connivance, and then condescend
to ask me to condone a fault committed in hot passion. This I grant,
but only on these terms, that you release[1785] the ravisher from the
status of a Sojourner, to which he belongs by birth; thus becoming
his patron instead of his lord. The woman is free already. And to give
her the position of a wedded wife, and not the plaything of caprice,
there is but one way. Our scamp for whom you intercede must
become your Client[1786] and cease to be a Tributary, thus acquiring
the quality of an ordinary Commoner rather than that of a Serf.’
Sidonius is as usual ready to make the best[1787] of a bad job. From
his proposal I draw the following conclusions. First, as to the nurses.
The nutrix, like the Greek τροφός, held a position of trust and
respect in the household, consecrated by immemorial tradition. No
slave had a higher claim to manumission, if she desired it. It would
seem that Sidonius’ ‘mammy’ was ending her days as a freedwoman,
and hence her daughter was free. It looks as if the nurse of Pudens
were still a slave, and her son an inquilinus on the estate of Pudens.
He may very well have been tenant of a small holding, practically a
serf-tenant. Pudens is still his dominus. His quality of inquilinus
attaches to him in virtue of his origo; that is, he is registered in the
census-books[1788] as a human unit belonging to a particular estate
and taken into account in estimating taxation-units. Therefore he is
tributarius[1789]. Sidonius proposes to divest him of the character of
serf and make him an ordinary Roman citizen. The difference this
would make is probably a purely legal one. Being at present a Serf,
probably in strict law a slave also, his connexion with the girl is a
contubernium. His manumission[1790] (for such it really is) will
enable him to convert it into a matrimonium, carrying the usual legal
responsibilities. The practical change in his economic position will
probably be nil. He will still remain a dependent colonus, but he may
perhaps enjoy the privilege of paying his own share[1791] of taxes.
That Sidonius speaks of his present condition first as Inquilinate and
then as Colonate, is one of many proofs that the two terms now
connoted virtually[1792] the same thing. Such had already been
stated as a fact in a law of Honorius, which was retained by
Tribonian in the code of Justinian. Whether the inquilini were
barbarian bondsmen (hörige), tenants bound to the soil like coloni
but the personal property of their landlords, as Seeck holds; or
usually descendants of coloni, as Weber thought; is more than I can
venture to decide. I do not think that either hypothesis[1793]
exhausts all the possibilities, and the point is not material to the
present inquiry. In any case it can hardly be doubted that both
classes consisted of men who worked with their own hands, only
aided in some cases by slave labour which was far from easy to
procure.

LXI. CONCLUDING CHAPTER.

After so long a discussion of the surviving evidence, it is time to
sum up the results and see to what conclusions the inquiry leads us
in respect of the farm life and labour of the Greco-Roman world. And
first as to the figures of the picture, the characters with whose
position and fortunes we are concerned. We find three classes,
owner farmer labourer, clearly marked though not so as to be
mutually exclusive. We can only begin with ownership in some form,
however rudimentary; for the claim to resist encroachment on a
more or less ill-defined area is a phenomenon of even the rude life
of hunter-tribes. How private property grew out of common
ownership is a question beyond the range of the present inquiry. It is
enough that the owner, whether a clan or a family or an individual,
has a recognized right to use the thing owned (here land) and to
debar others from doing so. But it is clear that he may also be the
actual manager of its use: he may even supply in person all the
labour needed for turning it to account: in short, he may be his own
farmer and his own labourer. And legend asserts or implies that such
was the primitive condition of man when he passed from nomadic to
settled existence. Differentiation of function is therefore a product of
time and circumstance, a development varying in date and degree
among various races and in various portions of the world. Once the
stage of civilization is reached at which the regular cultivation of the
same piece of land year by year is the normal means of sustaining
human life, we meet the simplest economic figure, the peasant who
supplies his own needs by his own methods, tilling the soil which in
some sense he claims as his own. Whether it is his own permanently
as an individual, or temporarily as a member of a village community,
is a difference immaterial from the present point of view. Nor does it
matter that his method of dealing with the land may be regulated by
principles conventional in the society to which he belongs.
 Delegation of management is a momentous step, destined to
bring important unforeseen consequences. Many reasons may have
rendered it necessary or at least convenient. It appears in two
forms, the actual and relative dates of which are hardly to be
determined with certainty. Either the owner keeps the profit of the
undertaking and bears the loss, or some division of profit and loss
between the owner and the manager is the condition of the
arrangement between the two parties. Ownership is not abdicated:
nor is it easy to see how, without a clear recognition of ownership,
any system of delegation could arise. But on the first plan the owner
owns not only the land but the service of his delegate. Whether the
man be a client bound to his patron by social custom, or an agent
earning a wage, or a slave the property of his master, he is merely a
servant in charge. He can be superseded at any moment at the
landowner’s will. The free tenant on the other hand is a creature of
contract, and his existence presupposes a community in which the
sanctity of deliberate bargains is considerably developed. Whether
the tenant’s obligation consists in the payment of a fixed rent in
money or kind, or in a share of produce varying with the season’s
crop, does not matter. He is bound by special law, however
rudimentary; and it is the interest of the community to see that such
law is kept in force: for no one would enter into such bargains if
their fulfilment were not reasonably assured. Whether a certain
reluctance to enter into such a relation may perhaps account for the
rare and doubtful appearance of tenancy in early Roman tradition, or
whether it is to be set down simply to defects of record, I do not
venture to decide. The landlord’s obligation is to allow his tenant the
enjoyment and free use of a definite piece of land on certain terms
for a stipulated period. Further stipulations, giving him the right to
insist on proper cultivation and the return of the land in good
condition at the end of the tenancy, were doubtless soon added at
the dictation of experience. That tenant farmers with their families
usually supplied labour as well as management, is surely not to be
doubted. That, in the times when we begin to hear of this class as
non-exceptional, they also employed slave labour, is attested: that
we do not hear of them as engaging free wage-earners, may or may
not be an accidental omission.
Labour, simply as labour, without regard to the possible profit or
loss attending its results, was no more an object of desire, engaged
in for its own sake, in ancient times than it is now. Domestication of
animals, a step implying much attentive care and trouble, was a
great advance in the direction of securing a margin of profit on
which mankind could rely for sustenance and comfort. The best
instance is perhaps that of the ox, whose services, early exploited to
the full, were cheaply obtained at the cost of his rearing and keep.
Hence he was kept. But in ages of conflict, when might was right,
the difference[1794] between an ox-servant and a man-servant had
in practice no existence, and the days of theory were as yet in the
far future. A human enemy, captured and spared, could be put to
use in the same way as a domesticated ox. His labour, minus the
cost of his keep, left a margin of profit to his owner. At the moment
of capture, his life was all he had: therefore his conqueror had
deprived him of nothing, and the bargain was in his favour, though
economically in his owner’s interest. No wonder then that our
earliest records attest the presence of the slave. Even nomad tribes
were attended by slaves[1795] in their migrations, nor indeed has
this custom been wholly unknown in modern times. On the other
hand it is remarkable how very little we hear of wage-earning labour
in ancient agriculture. Nothing seems to imply that it was ever a
normal resource of cultivation. When employed, it is almost always
for special work at seasons of pressure, and it seems to have
remained on this footing, with a general tendency to decline. In
other words, the margin of profit on the results of wage-earning
labour seemed to employers less than that on the results of slave
labour, so far as ordinary routine was concerned. And we are not in
a position to shew that in their given circumstances their judgment
was wrong. But we need to form some notion of the position of the
wage-earning labourer in a civilization still primitive.
 The main point ever to be borne in mind is that the family
household was a close union of persons bound together by ties of
blood and religion under a recognized Head. A common interest in
the family property carried with it the duty of common labour. The
domestic stamp was on everything done and designed. Even the
slave had a humble place in the family life, and family religion did
not wholly ignore him. He was there, and was meant to stay there.
Farm-work was the chief item in the duties of the household, and he
bore, and was meant to bear, his full share of it. But the hired
labourer stood in no such relation to the household union, however
friendly his connexion with his employer might be. He did his work,
took his wage, and went: no tie was severed by his going, and any
other person of like capacity could fill his place if and when the need
for help-service arose. In short, his labour was non-domestic,
irregular, occasional: and therefore less likely to receive notice in
such records as have come down to us. But if we conclude (as I am
inclined to do) that wage-labour was not much employed on the
land in early times, we must admit that this is rather an inference
than an attested tradition.
The distinction between domestic regular service and non-
domestic help-service is essential, and on a small holding from which
a family raised its own sustenance the line of division was easy to
draw. Later economic changes tended to obscure it, and we find
Roman jurists[1796] of the Empire striving to discover a full and
satisfactory answer to a much later question, namely the distinction
between a domestic and a rustic slave. But by that time ‘domestic’
appears as ‘urban,’ for the effect of centuries has been to draw a
really important line of division, not between slave and free but
between two classes of slaves. There is however in the conditions of
early slavery, when ‘domestic’ and ‘rustic’ were merely two aspects
of the same thing, another point not to be overlooked, since it
probably had no little influence on the development of human
bondage. It is this. The human slave differs from the domesticated
ox through possession of what we call reason. If he wished to
escape, he was capable of forming deep-laid plans for that purpose.
Now the captives in border wars would be members of neighbouring
tribes. If enslaved, the fact of being still within easy reach of their
kindred was a standing temptation to run away, sure as they would
be of a welcome in their former homes. No kindness, no
watchfulness, on the master’s part would suffice to deaden or defeat
such an influence. To solve the problem thus created, a way was
found by disposing of captives to aliens more remote and getting
slaves brought from places still further away. This presupposes some
commercial intercourse. In the early Greek tradition we meet with
this slave-trade at work as a branch of maritime traffic chiefly in the
hands of Phoenician seamen. In Italy we find a trace of it in the
custom[1797] of selling ‘beyond Tiber,’ that is into alien Etruria. At
what stage of civilization exactly this practice became established it
is rash to guess: we cannot get behind it. The monstrous slave-
markets of the historical periods shew that it developed into a
normal institution of the ancient world. But it is not unreasonable to
suppose that an alien from afar was less easily absorbed into his
master’s family circle than a man of a neighbouring community
though of another tribe. Are we to see in this the germ of a change
by which the house-slave became less ‘domestic’ and tended to
become a human chattel?
The exploitation of some men’s labour for the maintenance of
others could and did take another form in ages of continual conflict.
Successful invaders did not always drive out or destroy the earlier
inhabitants of a conquered land. By retaining them as subjects to till
the soil, and making the support of their rulers the first charge upon
their produce, the conquerors provided for their own comfort and
became a leisured noble class. In the Greek world we find such
aristocracies of a permanently military character, as in Laconia and
Thessaly. Colonial expansion reproduced the same or very similar
phenomena abroad, as in the cases of Heraclea Pontica and
Syracuse. The serfdom of such subject populations was a very
different thing[1798] from slavery. It had nothing domestic about it.
There is no reason to suppose that the serf was under any constraint
beyond the regular performance of certain fixed duties, conditions
imposed by the state on its subjects, not the personal orders of an
individual owner. In some cases at least the serf seems to have
enjoyed a measure of protection[1799] under public law. Whether the
original Roman plebs stood on much the same footing as the Greek
serfs is perhaps doubtful, but their condition presents certain
analogies. The main truth is that the desire of conquerors to profit
by the labour of the conquered was and is an appetite almost
universal: moral revulsion against crude forms of this exploitation is
of modern, chiefly English, origin; even now it is in no small degree
a lesson from the economic experience of ages. But it is well to
remember that we use ‘serfdom’ also as the name for the condition
of rural peasantry in the later Roman Empire, and that this again is a
different relation. For it is not a case of conquered people serving
their conquerors. Rather is it an affliction of those who by blood or
franchise represent the conquering people. Step by step they sink
under the loss of effective freedom, though nominally free, bound
down by economic and social forces; influences that operate with
the slow certainty of fate until their triumph is finally registered by
imperial law.
That the institution of Property is a matter of slow growth, is now
generally admitted by sincere inquirers. It had reached a
considerable stage of development when a clan or household (still
more when an individual) was recognized as having an exclusive
right to dispose of this or that material object presumably useful to
others also. For instance, in the right of an owner to do as he would
with an ox or a slave. Individual property in land was certainly a
later development, the appropriation being effected by a
combination of personal acquisitiveness with economic convenience.
From my present point of view the chief interest of the property-
question is in its connexion with debt-slavery. That farmers, exposed
to the vicissitudes of seasons, are peculiarly liable to incur debts, is
well known from experience ancient and modern. But ancient Law, if
rudimentary, was also rigid; and tradition depicts for us the small
peasant as a victim of the wealthy whose larger capital enabled
them to outlast the pressure of bad times. How far the details of this
picture are to be taken literally as evidence of solid fact has not
unreasonably been doubted. But that a farmer in straits could pledge
not only his land but his person as security for a debt seems hardly
open to question. For we find the practice still existing in historical
periods, and political pressure exerted to procure mitigation of the
ancient severity. Now, if a man gave himself in bondage to a creditor
until such time as his debt should be discharged, he became that
creditor’s slave for a period that might only end with his own life.
Here we have another way in which the man of property could get
the disposal of regular labour without buying a slave in the market
or turning to work himself. A later form of the practice, in which a
debtor worked off his liability[1800] by service at an estimated rate, a
method of liquidation by the accumulation of unpaid wages, seems
to have been a compromise avoiding actual slavery. Evidently
subsequent to the abolition of debt-slavery, it died out in Italy,
perhaps partly owing to the troublesome friction that would surely
arise in enforcing the obligation.
It is natural to ask, if we find small trace of eagerness to labour in
person on the land, and ample tradition of readiness to devolve that
labour on slaves and subjects, how comes it that we find agriculture
in honour, traditionally regarded as the manual labour beyond all
others not unworthy of a freeman? To reply that human life is
supported by the produce of the land is no sufficient answer. To
recognize the fact of necessity does not account for the sentiment of
dignity. Now, in the formation of such unions as may fairly be called
States, the commonest if not universal phenomenon is the
connexion of full citizenship with ownership of land. Political
movement towards democracy is most significantly expressed in the
struggles of landless members of inferior right to gain political
equality. Whether the claim is for allotments of land, carrying a share
of voting-power, or for divorcing the voting-power from landholding,
does not matter much here. At any rate it was the rule that no alien
could own land within the territory of the state, and state and
territory were coextensive. Only special treaties between states, or a
solemn act of the sovran power in a state, could create exceptions to
the rule. From this situation I would start in attempting to find some
answer to the above question. In a village community I think it is
generally agreed that all true members had a share of the produce,
the great majority as cultivators, holding lots of land, not as tenants
at will or by contract, but in their own right, though the parcels
might be allotted differently from time to time. If a few craftsmen
were left to specialize in necessary trades for the service of all, and
drew their share in the form of sustenance provided by the
cultivating members, the arrangement presented no insuperable
difficulty on a small scale. But the tillers of the soil were the persons
on whose exertions the life of the community primarily and obviously
depended. The formation of a larger unit, a State, probably by some
successful warrior chief, made a great change in the situation. A city
stronghold established a centre of state life and government, and
villages exchanged the privileges and perils of isolation for the
position of local hamlets attached to the common centre of the
state, and in this new connexion developing what we may fairly call
political consciousness. Under the new dispensation, what with
growth of markets, the invention of coined money, and greater
general security, the movement towards individual property
proceeded fast. Noble families engrossed much of the best land: and
tradition[1801] credibly informs us that in one mode or other they
imposed the labour of cultivation on the poorer citizens, of course on
very onerous terms.
At this point in the inquiry some help may be got from taking the
military view. War, at least defensive war, was a possibility ever
present. Kings, and the aristocracies that followed them, had as their
prime function to secure the safety of the state. A sort of regular
force was provided by the obligation of army service that rested
upon all full citizens. The warrior nobles and their kinsmen formed a
nucleus. But the free peasant farmers were indispensable in the
ranks, and, as their farms usually lay near the frontier, they
furnished a hardy and willing militia for border warfare. The
craftsmen, smith potter cobbler etc, were now more concentrated in
the city, and were always regarded as ill-fitted for service in the field.
Naturally the classes that bore a direct part in defence of the state
stood higher in general esteem. But to say this is not to say that
bodily labour on the land was, as labour, honoured for its own sake.
The honour belonged to those who, owning land, either worked it
with their own hands or employed the labour of others. I can find no
trace of traditional respect for the labourer as labourer until a much
later age, when a dearth of free rustic labourers had begun to be
felt. Then it appeared in the form of yearning[1802] for a vanished
past, side by side with humanitarian views in relation to slavery.
Meanwhile a stage had been traversed in which slavery was
recognized as necessary in spite of its admitted evils, and therefore
requiring justification; a movement most clearly illustrated by the
special pleading of Aristotle. That great writer was fully alive to the
manifold merits of the farmer class as citizens and producers, but his
trust in the power of self-interest proves him a confirmed
individualist. How to combine self-interest with patriotic devotion to
the common welfare is the vital problem, even now only solved
ideally on paper. That coldly-reasoned conclusions of thinkers were
really the foundation of the esteem in which we find the working
farmer held, I cannot believe. Much more likely is it that it sprang
mainly from immemorial tradition of a time when ownership and
cultivation went together, and that theory merely absorbed and
revived what was still an indistinct impression in the minds of men.
The Greeks had a significant word, ἀυτουργός, the usage of which
may serve to illustrate my meaning. That it connotes the fact of a
man’s bearing a personal part in this or that work is clear on the face
of it. That no other person also bears a part, is sometimes implied
by the context, but it is not necessarily contained in the word itself.
To put it differently, he does his own work, not necessarily all his
own work. I note two points in connexion with it that seem to me
important. First, it is so often used as descriptive of rustic labour
that it seems to have carried with it associations of farm-life: most of
the other uses are almost metaphorical, some distinctly so. Secondly,
I have never found it applied to the case of a slave. Why? I think,
because it conveyed the further notion of working not only yourself
but for yourself. If in some passages it is not quite certain that an
owner (rather than a tenant) is referred to, surely this extension of
meaning is not such as to cause surprise. It is not enough to
suggest serious doubt that the common and full sense of the word
was that a man did work with his own hands on his own account on
his own land. This was the character to which immemorial tradition
pointed; and, whenever tenancy under landlords began, the word
fitted the working tenant-farmer well enough. The Romans had the
tradition in the most definite form, though Latin furnished no
equivalent word. Their literature, moralizing by examples and unapt
for theory, used it as material for centuries. But neither in the Greek
world nor in Italy can I detect any reason for believing that the
peasant farmer, idealized by later ages, is rightly to be conceived as
a person unwilling to employ slave labour—if and when he could get
it. The tradition, in which rustic slaves appear from very early times,
seems to me far more credible than late legends of a primitive
golden age in which there were no slaves at all. That a man, to be
enslaved, must first have been free, is a piece of speculation with
which I am not here concerned.
Tradition then, looking back to times when landowner and citizen
were normally but different sides of the same character, both terms
alike implying the duty of fighting for the state, idealized and
glorified this character with great but pardonable exaggeration of
virtues probably not merely fictitious. The peasant citizen and
producer was its hero. As the devolution of bodily labour upon slaves
or hirelings became more common with the increase of commerce
and urban life, and the solid worth of a patriot peasantry became
more evident in the hour of its decay, men turned with regret to the
past. And the contrast of the real present with an idealized past
naturally found a significant difference in the greater or less
willingness of men to work with their own hands, particularly on the
land. But it was the labour of free citizens, each bearing an active
part in the common responsibilities of the state and enjoying its
common protection, that was glorified, not labour as in itself
meritorious or healthy. The wholesomeness of rustic toil was not
ignored, but to urge it as a motive for bodily exertion was a notion
developed by town-bred thinkers. That it coloured later tradition is
not wonderful: its recognition is most clearly expressed in the
admission of superior ‘corporal soundness’ in the sparely-fed and
hard-worked slave or wage-earner. But labour as labour was never,
so far as I can learn, dignified and respected in Greco-Roman
civilization. Poverty, not choice, might compel a man to do all his
own work; but, if he could and did employ hired or slave labour also,
then he was an ἀυτουργός none the less. This I hold to be an
underlying fact that Roman tradition in particular is calculated to
obscure. It was voluntary labour, performed in a citizen’s own
interest and therefore a service to the state, that received
sentimental esteem.
The power of military influences in ancient states is often cited as
a sufficient explanation of the social fact that non-military bodily
labour was generally regarded with more or less contempt. The
army being the state in arms, the inferiority of those who did not
form part of it though able-bodied was manifest to all. This is true as
far as it goes, but there was something more behind. Why does not
the same phenomenon appear in modern states with conscript
armies, such as France or Italy or above all Switzerland? I think the
true answer is only to be found by noting a difference between
ancient and modern views as to the nature and limits of voluntary
action. It is only of states in which membership is fairly to be called
citizenship that I am speaking; and as usual it is Greek conditions
and Greek words that supply distinct evidence. Not that the Roman
conditions were materially different, but they were perhaps less
clearly conceived, and the record is less authentic and clear. Now,
beyond the loyal obedience due from citizen to state, any sort of
constraint determining the action of one free man by the will of
others was feared and resented to a degree of which we cannot
easily form an adequate notion. In the gradual emancipation of the
commons from the dominion of privileged nobles, the long struggle
gave a passionate intensity to the natural appetite for freedom. And
the essence of freedom was the power of self-disposal. This power
was liable to be lost permanently by sale into slavery, but also from
time to time by the effect of temporary engagements. The most
obvious instance of the latter condition was the bondage created by
unpaid debt. Hence the persistent and eventually successful fight to
make it illegal to take a borrower’s person as security for his debt.
But, suppose the debt cancelled by the seizure of his goods, the
man was left a pauper. His only resource was to work for wages, and
this placed him for the time of his engagement at the full
disposal[1803] of his employer. If he was not a master’s slave for
good and all, he would be passing from master to master, ever
freshly reminded of the fact that his daily necessities subjected him
to the will of others, nullifying his freeman’s power of self-disposal. If
he worked side by side with slaves, there was a further grievance.
For the slave, in whom his owner had sunk capital, had to be kept
fed and housed to retard his depreciation: the free labourer
depended[1804] on his wage, liable to fail. The situation, thus crudely
stated, was intolerable. In practice it was met, first by devotion to
handicrafts as a means of livelihood in which the winning of custom
by skill relieved the worker from direct dependence on a single
master; but also by allotments of land in annexed territory, and
sometimes (as at Athens) by multiplication of paid state-
employments.
Of ordinary artisans, as distinct from artists, it may be said that
their position varied according as their special trades were more or
less esteemed by contemporary sentiment. The successful could and
did employ[1805] helpers, usually slaves. In urban populations they
were an important element, particularly in those where military
considerations were not predominant. The accumulation of capital,
and the introduction of industries on a larger scale in factory-
workshops with staffs of slaves, may have affected some trades to
their disadvantage, but on the whole the small-scale craftsmen seem
generally[1806] to have held their ground. Unskilled labour on the
other hand was generally despised. It was as a matter of course
chiefly performed by slaves. If a citizen was compelled by want to
hire out his bodily strength, this was not voluntary: complete
submission to another’s will, even for a short time, made the relation
on his part virtually servile. Accordingly philosophers, when they
came to discuss such topics, came to the conclusion that the need of
such unskilled labour proved slavery to be ‘according to nature,’ a
necessary appliance of human society. When the Stoic defined a
slave as a lifelong hireling, he gave sharp expression to what had
long been felt as a true analogy. For, if the slave was a lifelong
hireling, the hireling must be a temporary slave. Romans could
borrow the thought, but with them practice had preceded theory.
In making comparisons between wage-earning ancient and
modern we come upon a difficulty which it is hardly possible to set
aside or overcome. A slave could be hired from his owner, just as a
freeman could be hired from himself. The difference between the
two cases would be clearly marked[1807] in the modern world, and
language would leave no room for misunderstanding. But many
passages in ancient writers leave it quite uncertain whether the
hirelings referred to are free or slave. The point is an important one,
particularly to inquirers who attempt to estimate the relative
economic efficiency of free and slave labour. For the immediate
interest of the freeman is to get a maximum of wage for a minimum
of work: the ultimate interest of the hired slave was often to improve
his own prospect of manumission. The custom was to allow the
slave to retain a small portion of his wage. Now this stimulus to
exertion was manifestly to the interest of the employer, who may
even have made it a part of his bargain with the owner. The slave,
alive to the chance of laying up a little store for the eventual
purchase of his freedom, was induced to work well in order to be
kept employed on these terms. The owner drew a steady income
from his capital sunk in slaves, and the system was thus convenient
to all parties. We may add that, by causing a slave to take thought
for his own future, this plan encouraged him to take reasonable care
of his own health, and so far retarded his progressive deterioration
as an investment; while his owner stood to recover the slave’s
hoarded wage-portion in the form of redemption-money on
manumission of his worn-out slave. There is reason to think that
slave labour under these conditions was often more efficient than
free. Unhappily we have no direct discussion of the question from
ancient observers, who did not take this point of view, though well
aware of the influence of prospective manumission in producing
contentment.
But how far was this comparatively genial arrangement applicable
to the ruder forms of unskilled labour? Take for instance mining.
Freemen would have none of it, and the inhuman practices of
exploiters were notorious. Yet hired slaves were freely employed.
Owners knew that their slaves were likely to waste rapidly under the
methods in use, and at Athens a common stipulation was that on the
expiry of a contract the gang hired should be returned in equal
number, the employer making good the losses certain to occur in
their ranks. Here we have the mere human chattel, hopeless and
helpless, never likely to receive anything but his keep, as an engine
receives its fuel and oil, but differing in this, that he was liable to
cruel punishment. Such labourers could not work for a freedom that
they had no prospect of living to enjoy. And how about the case of
agriculture? That freemen did work for wages on farms we know,
but we hear very little of them, and that little almost entirely as
helpers at certain seasons. So far as I have been able to learn, free
wage-labour did not really compete with slave labour in agriculture:
moreover the hired man might be a hired slave, while migratory
harvesters, probably freemen, appear at least in some cases as
gangs hired for the job under a ganger of their own, responsible to
the employer for their conduct and efficiency. Most significant is the
almost complete absence of evidence that rustic slaves had any
prospect of manumission. In former chapters I have commented on
this fact and noted the few faint indications of such an arrangement.
At all events the crude plantation-system, while it lasted, was a
work-to-death system, though worn-out survivors may have had a
better lot than miners, if allowed to exist as old retainers on the
estate. But cultivation by slave labour for the purpose of raising an
income for the landlord was, even in its later improved organization,
a system implying brutal callousness, if not downright cruelty. Slave
stewards and overseers, at the mercy of the master themselves,
were naturally less concerned to spare the common hands than to
escape the master’s wrath. When writers on agriculture urge that on
all grounds it is wise to keep punishments down to a minimum, the
point of their advice is surely a censure of contemporary practice.
Now in modern times, humanitarian considerations being
assumed, the prevailing point of view has been more and more a
strictly economic and industrial one. It has been assumed that the
freedom of an individual consists first and foremost in the freedom
to dispose of his own labour on the best available terms. And this
freedom rests on freedom to move from place to place in search of
the best labour-market from time to time. But the movement and
the bargaining have been regarded as strictly voluntary, as in a
certain sense they are. The power to migrate or emigrate with the
view of ‘bettering himself’ is conferred on the wage-earner by
modern facilities for travel, and new countries readily absorb
additional labour. But experience has shewn that free bargaining for
wages is not seldom illusory, since the man of capital can bide his
time, while the poor man cannot. Still, when every allowance has
been made on this score, it is true that the modern labourer, through
freedom of movement, has far more power of self-disposal than the
wage-earner of the Greco-Roman world. That his position is
strengthened and assured by the possession of political power, is not
without ancient analogies: but a difference in degree if not in kind is
created by the wide extension of the franchise in modern states, and
its complete separation in principle from the ownership of land. That
is, the basis of citizenship is domicile: for citizen parentage is not
required, but easily supplemented[1808] by legal nationalization.
Moreover, religion is no longer a necessary family inheritance, but
the choice of individuals who can generally gratify their preferential
sentiments in surroundings other than their birthplace. Compare this
position with the narrow franchises of antiquity and their
ineffectiveness on any large scale, their normally hereditary
character, the local and domestic limitation of religious ties, the