J P M O R G A N Global Commodities Research

24 September 2024

Commodity Market Positioning &

Flows
BCOM rally continues - global commodity open interest
value recovers to four-week high

• The estimated value of open interest across global commodity markets Global Commodities Research
jumped by 2% WOW to $1.37 billion, led by price driven gains across Tracey Allen
energy markets alongside contract inflows across precious metals and agri (44-20) 7134-6732
markets (as of 20 Sep, Table 1, Figure 2). Injections of contract-based
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[email protected]
inflows (calculated across all trader types) continued for a third week, J.P. Morgan Securities plc

totalling ~$8 billion WOW, concentrated across agri markets ($7 billion Gregory C. Shearer
WOW) along with precious metals ($4.2 billion WOW), while crude oil (44-20) 7134-8161
[email protected]
(-$4.7 billion WOW) and petroleum products (-$2.8 billion WOW) J.P. Morgan Securities plc
registered outflows. The recovery in the BCOM has continued this week,
Natasha Kaneva
buoyed by the PBOC’s announcement of the most comprehensive (1-212) 834-3175
monetary policy easing in China since 2015, which exceeded market [email protected]
expectations (China: PBOC announced…, Zhu et al, 24 September). Last JPMorgan Chase Bank NA
week, the Fed confirmed a material shift in its perception of risk, Shikha Chaturvedi
delivering on our expectation of a 50bp ease and guidance toward a (1-212) 834-3245
roughly 100bp step down in rates by year-end. Euro Area PMI’s dropped [email protected]
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA
sharply in September however, down -2.1pts to 48.9 and well below our
and consensus expectations of 50.5 (Euro area: Noise and weakness in the Priya R Suneja
(91-22) 6157 4721
PMI data, Brun-Aguerre, 23 September). [email protected]
• The estimated value of the net investor position aggregated across global J.P. Morgan India Private Limited
commodity markets increased for the first time in three weeks, rising by Ali A. Ibrahim
18% WOW to $108.5 billion (as of 17 Sep, Figure 3). However, the w
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(44-20) 3493-6438
[email protected]
aggregate position is projected to have jumped subsequently (as of 20 Sep)
J.P. Morgan Securities plc
by +$5.6 billion on an increase in length across gold markets (+$3 billion),
Otar Dgebuadze, CFA
alongside small gains across copper markets (+$1.2 billion), energy (+$606
(44-20) 3493-8246
million) and agri markets (+$340 million). [email protected]
J.P. Morgan Securities plc
• The estimated value of open interest across energy markets increased by
+1.7% WOW or $10 billion WOW to ~$599 billion as rising geopolitical Ananyashree Gupta
premium across crude oil markets, more than offset contract-driven (91-22) 6157 3627
[email protected]
outflows (24 Sep, Figure 6). While a weak balance in 2025 is now a
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J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

consensus across the oil market, our oil strategists’ preliminary analysis
for 2026 estimates that global demand will rise by about 1.0 mbd in 2026,
largely matched by a 0.9 mbd increase in non-OPEC supply. Across
natural gas markets, the estimated open interest value ticked up by 1.6%
WOW primarily on contract driven inflows which reached a four-week
high (24 Sep, Figure 13). Our strategists’ stay bullish European natural
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gas, as supply risks remain and weather grabs the price reins.
• The estimated value of open interest in precious metals markets increased
by +3% WOW to ~$218 billion (24 Sep, Figure 8). Across all trader types, g
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contract-based inflows totalled +$4.2 billion over the week, mostly into
gold (+$3.6 billion WOW) and silver (+$947 million WOW) with slight
outflows in PGMs (-$382 million WOW). Gold appears to once again be
displaying its characteristic bullish skew vs falling real yields over the

See page 38 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that
the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision.

www.jpmorganmarkets.com
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
Commodity Market Positioning &
J.P. Morgan Securities plc Flows
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245 24 September 2024
[email protected] [email protected]

commencement of a Fed rate cutting cycle as gold futures rallied to another record
high of $2,650/oz.
• The estimated open interest value of base metals markets climbed by +$3.8 billion
WOW to ~$170 billion (24 Sep, Figure 9). The increase in open interest value was
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mainly driven by copper, net sector contract-based inflows (for all trader types)
were muted at +$651 million WOW as inflows into copper (+$2 billion WOW) were
offset by outflows from the rest of the sector. Ahead of the Golden Week in China
in early October, the pace of destocking remains robust in copper, but slowed in
aluminum and zinc compared to the last few weeks of strong visible inventory
draws.
• The estimated value of open interest across environmental markets remained stable
at ~$68 billion on the week ending 20 Sep (Figure 7). EUA markets absorbed
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contract-based inflows of $1.3 billion over the week. Investment Funds increased
their net short position across EUA’s over the week of 13 Sep, down -7,283 lots WOW
to -21,521 lots, the lowest level in seven weeks.
• Global agricultural market estimated open interest value increased by a further 3%
WOW to $284 billion in the week of 20 Sep, on contract-driven gains (Figure 10, O
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Figure 14). Contract-based inflows (across all trader types) totalled $7 billion
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WOW, primarily into cocoa, soybean & products markets. ICE #11 Sugar remains
our top long call across agri commodity markets, and has rallied to over 7-month
highs. The combination of constructive outside market macro developments, amid
bullish sugar fundamentals, namely in Brazil, have reduced investor and producer
selling pressure across the ICE #11 over the week, while technical developments
have driven widespread short covering and a price breakout.
• Price momentum generally increased across energy, base and agri markets over the
week and declined across PGMs (23 Sep, Table 3, Figure 17). Notably, the short-term
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momentum trading signal on CBOT Corn, CBOT Soybeans and LME Nickel
switched positive to a ‘buy’ signal, as did the long-term momentum across ICE
Sugar, while short-term momentum across NYMEX Platinum and LME
Aluminium switched to a ‘sell’ signal.
See Agricultural Commodities CFTC COT Report for relevant supplemental data across
agricultural markets.

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
J.P. Morgan Securities plc 24 September 2024
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245
[email protected] [email protected]

Table 1: The estimated value of commodity market open interest across major global exchanges rose to ~$1.36 trillion in the week ending 20
September
US$ million (unless otherwise stated)
Total
Number of estimated
futures open Tracked Open Interest by location of exchange
markets interest Change in Open Interest Cumulative flows (% of global total)
Sector 20-Sep-24 1 Week 1 Month 2024 ytd 1 Week 1 Month 2024 ytd US Europe China RoW
Total 71 $1,365,257 $30,612 -$7,985 $177,340 $8,222 $7,403 $146,037 46% 41% 12% 1%
Energy 16 $599,016 $10,033 -$25,387 $83,209 -$5,816 $2,123 $101,046 42% 56% 1% 0%
Crude Oil 5 $341,867 $6,744 -$13,588 $29,467 -$4,671 $1,876 $38,547 38% 60% 2% 0%
Petroleum Products 7 $136,729 $1,359 -$5,655 $21,589 -$2,780 $2,747 $37,089 56% 42% 2% 0%
Natural Gas 3 $120,419 $1,930 -$6,144 $32,153 $1,635 -$2,500 $25,409 41% 59% 0% 0%
Environmental Markets 3 $67,927 $1 -$3,019 $20,370 $1,323 $4,934 $31,164 0% 100% 0% 0%
European Union Allowances 2 $64,964 $158 -$3,195 $18,848 $1,267 $4,708 $29,616 0% 100% 0% 0%
UK ETS 1 $2,963 -$157 $177 $1,522 $56 $227 $1,548 0% 100% 0% 0%
Metals 25 $414,571 $11,813 $10,491 $72,495 $5,719 $316 $8,645 36% 32% 28% 4%
Precious Metals 9 $217,730 $6,975 $14,162 $54,761 $4,163 $4,480 -$595 77% 0% 12% 11%
Base Metals 11 $169,841 $3,841 -$3,762 $23,086 $651 -$4,848 $8,119 13% 63% 24% 0%
Bulk Commodities 5 $27,000 $997 $90 -$5,352 $905 $683 $1,121 0% 12% 88% 0%
Agriculture 27 $283,743 $8,765 $9,930 $1,266 $6,996 $30 $5,183 78% 6% 17% 0%
Grains & Oilseeds 12 $159,640 $3,837 $4,841 $2,685 $2,245 -$3,788 $26,347 80% 3% 17% 0%
Softs 11 $86,412 $2,808 $1,903 -$8,697 $3,598 $1,649 -$29,673 62% 14% 24% 0%
Livestock 4 $37,692 $2,120 $3,186 $7,278 $1,154 $2,168 $8,509 100% 0% 0% 0%

Source: Exchanges, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Estimated open interest value is calculated as the number of outstanding contracts (OI) multiplied by the lot size and price of the commodity in USD terms. The estimated value of weekly flow is calculated
as the weekly change in the estimated value of open interest – holding prices constant at the prior week’s level to strip out the price impact, and assign value to contract driven flows only.

Figure 1: 2024 YTD global commodity flows surged to ~$146 billion as Figure 2: The estimated value of global commodity market open
flows poured into agricultural and gold markets interest increased by 2.3% WOW
Cumulative flows across all commodity markets (US$ billion) Total estimated value commodity market open interest (US $ billion)
$300 $1,800
$1,600
$200
$1,400
$100
$1,200
$0 $1,000

-$100 $800
$600
-$200 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
10-yr range 10-yr avg 2023 2024
10-yr range 10-yr average 2023 2024

Source: Exchanges, CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: Exchanges, CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
Commodity Market Positioning &
J.P. Morgan Securities plc Flows
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245 24 September 2024
[email protected] [email protected]

Figure 3: The value of the net long investor position across global Figure 4: Precious metals markets notional length reached 6-month
commodity futures markets increased by 18% WOW with lengthening highs, driving up aggregate positioning
across metals and agricultural markets 0-10 scale using levels since the start of 2018, 0 = lowest price level/shortest net
Value of the net investor position aggregated across tracked commodity markets (real investor futures positioning value (Pos.) in real USD terms and 10 = highest price
terms USD billions) level/longest net investor futures positioning value (Pos.) in real USD terms since the
start of the specified data range. Red bar = latest reported level & blue bar = range in
the last six months.
250

10
225

200
8
175

150 6

125

4
100

75
2
50

25
0
BCOM Index Pos. BCOMEN Pos. BCOMIN Pos. BCOMPR Pos. BCOMAG Pos. ICE EUA Pos.
0 Index Index Index Index

-25
Aggregate Energy Base Metals Precious Metals Agriculture Environment

Environmental Agri Energy Base metals Precious metals Total JPM total net length estimate(as of 20 Sep)

Source: CFTC, LME, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, Forecasts supplied by JP Morgan Source: CFTC, LME, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, Red shaded boxes represent net
GQDS Research, see methodology here; *NYMEX, ICE, COMEX and CBOT commodities investor length estimate across corresponding markets as of 20 Sep — forecasts supplied by JP Morgan
positioning (Pos.) reports the aggregate of Managed Money and Other Reportable net futures GQDS Research, see methodology here; *NYMEX, ICE, COMEX and CBOT commodities investor
positioning value in real USD terms, while LME metals and environment commodities report the positioning (Pos.) reports the aggregate of Managed Money and Other Reportable net futures
aggregate of Investment Funds and Other Financial Firms net positioning value. Data as of close positioning value in real USD terms, while LME metals and environment commodities report the
17 Sep, except for ICE Endex TTF Natgas, LME Metals and Environment markets with data as of aggregate of Investment Funds and Other Financial Firms net positioning value. Data as of close
close 13 Sep 2024. 17 Sep, except for ICE Endex TTF Natgas, LME Metals and Environment markets with data as of
close 13 Sep 2024.

Figure 5: The CTA net long positioning in COMEX Gold ballooned by Figure 6: The estimated value of open interest across energy markets
9% over the week ending 17 September edged upwards by 2% WOW after recent losses
Y-axis: average weekly gold price (US$/oz); bubble represent size of weekly increase Total estimated value energy market open interest (US $ billion)
(green) or decrease (red) in CTA F&O net length, 17/09/2024
$2,800 $900
$2,600 $800

$2,400 $700
$600
$2,200
$500
$2,000
$400
$1,800
$300
$1,600
$200
$1,400 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Oct-22

Oct-23
Dec-23

Jul-24
Mar-22
Jun-22

Jan-23
Mar-23
May-23

Feb-24
May-24
Aug-22

Aug-23

Sep-24

10-yr range 10-yr avg 2023 2024

Source: Exchanges, CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: Exchanges, CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
J.P. Morgan Securities plc 24 September 2024
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245
[email protected] [email protected]

Figure 7: The estimated value of open interest across environmental Figure 8: The estimated value of open interest across precious metals
markets stabilised over the week climbed by 3.3% WOW due to inflows largely into gold
Total estimated value environmental markets open interest (US $ billion) Total estimated value precious metals market open interest (US $ billion)
$200 $300

$250
$150
$200
$100
$150
$50
$100

$0 $50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
10-yr range 10-yr avg 2023 2024 10-yr range 10-yr avg 2023 2024

Source: Exchanges, CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: Exchanges, CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 9: The estimated value of open interest across base metals Figure 10: The estimated value of open interest in agri markets
markets increased to ~$169.8 billion over the week increased by 3% WOW
Total estimated value base metals open interest (US $ billion) Total estimated value agri open interest (US $ billion)
$250 $400

$350
$200
$300
$150
$250

$100 $200

$50 $150
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
10-yr range 10-yr avg 2023 2024 10-yr range 10-yr avg 2023 2024

Source: Exchanges, CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: Exchanges, CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 11: The estimated value of open interest in crude oil reached ~ Figure 12: Petroleum products estimated open interest value stabilised
$341.8 billion WOW over the week
Total estimated value crude oil open interest (US $ billion) Total estimated value petroleum products open interest (US $ billion)
$550 $200

$450
$150
$350
$100
$250

$150 $50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
10-yr range 10-yr avg 2023 2024 10-yr range 10-yr avg 2023 2024

Source: Exchanges, CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: Exchanges, CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
Commodity Market Positioning &
J.P. Morgan Securities plc Flows
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245 24 September 2024
[email protected] [email protected]

Figure 13: The estimated value of open interest in natural gas markets Figure 14: The estimated value of open interest in grains & oilseeds
increased by 1.6% WOW after four weeks of consecutive losses climbed to~$159.6 billion over the week
Total estimated value nat gas open interest (US $ billion) Total estimated value grains & oilseeds open interest (US $ billion)
$400 $250
$350
$300
$250 $200
$200
$150 $150
$100
$50
$0 $100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
10-yr range 10-yr avg 2023 2024 10-yr range 10-yr avg 2023 2024

Source: Exchanges, CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: Exchanges, CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 15: The estimated value of open interest in softs markets Figure 16: The estimated open interest value across livestock markets
increased by 3.4% WOW surged by 6% WOW
Total estimated value softs open interest (US $ billion) Total estimated value livestock open interest (US $ billion)
$120 $45
$40
$100 $35
$30
$80
$25

$60 $20
$15
$40 $10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
10-yr range 10-yr avg 2023 2024 10-yr range 10-yr avg 2023 2024

Source: Exchanges, CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: Exchanges, CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 17: Price momentum (z-scores) across commodities and trading signals
*see methodology in Table 2

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, as of close 23 September 2024.

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
J.P. Morgan Securities plc 24 September 2024
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245
[email protected] [email protected]

Table 2: Estimated open interest and flows by country

US$ million (unless stated)

Total estimated
open interest Change in Open Interest Cumulative flows
Sector 20-Sep-24 1 Week 1 Month 2024 ytd 1 Week 1 Month 2024 ytd
Total $1,365,257 $30,612 -$7,985 $177,340 $8,222 $7,403 $146,037
USA $655,367 $16,480 $20,491 $91,290 $2,399 $8,673 $76,472
Europe $557,043 $8,314 -$26,699 $88,566 $2,271 $3,877 $89,058
China $142,145 $5,749 -$1,311 $1,339 $3,545 -$4,189 -$13,557
Japan $4,508 -$90 $170 -$353 -$96 $136 -$1,000
Other $6,195 $159 -$635 -$3,502 $103 -$1,094 -$4,935
Source: Exchanges, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
Commodity Market Positioning &
J.P. Morgan Securities plc Flows
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245 24 September 2024
[email protected] [email protected]

Table 3: Price momentum across commodity markets and trading signals

z-score (if z-score is -ve, trading signal = -1, if z-score is +ve, trading signal= +1, if score is >max or min momentum = trading signal is 0, neutral)
Optimal lookback period of each momentum strategy combined with a mean reversion indicator that turns signal neutral when momentum z-score approaches the extreme
momentum threshold above or below mean, and a filter that turns neutral when the z-score is low (below 0.05 and above -0.05) to avoid excessive trading. Lookbacks, current
signals and z-scores are shown for shorter-term and longer-term momentum separately, along with performance of a combined signal. Annualized return, volatility and information
ratio of the signal; current signal; and z-score of the current return over the relevant lookback period; data from 1999 onward.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, as of close Sep 23, 2024
* ICE NY Cocoa uses only short-term momentum, Framework developed by J.P. Morgan Asset Allocation, see Simple return momentum trading rules across various commodities, Flows & Liquidity,
Panigirtzoglou & Inkinen et al, Sep 18

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
J.P. Morgan Securities plc 24 September 2024
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245
[email protected] [email protected]

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
Commodity Market Positioning &
J.P. Morgan Securities plc Flows
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245 24 September 2024
[email protected] [email protected]

Appendix Figure 19: Energy underlying commodities standardised level chart

0-10 scale using levels since the start of 2011, 0= lowest price level/ shortest net
Included in this Commodity Market Positioning Flows futures positioning value (Pos.) in real USD terms and 10 = highest price level/
Appendix you can find: longest investment net futures positioning value (Pos.) in real USD terms since start
of 2011, except TTF Natgas (2018). Red bar = Latest level & blue bar = range in the
last six months
• Sectoral and underlying markets investor positioning
Post-2010 Max
standardised level charts for global energy, metals, 10

agriculture and environment markets. 8

• Estimated open interest on major global energy, pre- 6

cious, industrial and bulk metals, grains and oilseeds, 4

softs and livestock exchanges 2

• Summary of CFTC disaggregated data by commodity 0

Post-2010 Min

Price Pos. Price Pos. Price Pos. Price Pos. Price Pos. Price Pos. Price Pos.
and group ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI, NYM RBOB ICE Brent NYMEX WTI NYMEX Gasoline ICE Gasoil NYMEX Nat gas ICE Endex TTF Natgas NYMEX ULSD
Gasoline, ICE Gasoil, NYM Natural Gas, ICE Endex
TTF Natgas, ICE EUA, CMX Gold, CMX Silver, Source: CFTC, ICE, NYMEX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research; NYMEX and ICE commodi-
ties are aggregate of Managed Money and Other Reportable net futures positioning value in real
CMX Copper, NYM Platinum, CBOT Corn, CBT USD terms, while ICE Endex TTF Natgas is aggregate of investment fund and other financial
Soybeans, CBT Wheat, ICE Sugar No.11, ICE Cotton firms net futures positioning value. ICE Endex TTF positioning data is reported in MWh and con-
verted to the lot size. Data as of close 17 Sep, while ICE Endex Natgas TTF data as of close 13
No.2, ICE Coffee C, ICE Cocoa, CME Live Cattle Sep 2024.
and CME Lean Hogs.
Metals markets standardised level chart
Standardised levels for current commodi-
ties prices and investor positioning Figure 20: Metals sectoral standardized level chart
0-10 scale using levels since the start of 2018, 0= lowest price level/ shortest net
The following section provides a visual representation illus-
futures positioning value (Pos.) in real USD terms and 10 = highest price level/
trating investor positioning value in real USD terms and pric- longest investment net futures positioning value (Pos.) in real USD terms since start
es across commodities, using a scale of 0-10 representing his- of 2018. Red bar = Latest level & blue bar = range in the last six months
torical data starting from 2008 for agri, 2011 for energy and 10 Post-2017 Max
2018 for metals and environment markets.
8

Energy markets standardised level chart 6

Figure 18: Energy sectoral standardised level chart 4

0-10 scale using levels since the start of 2011, 0= lowest price level/ shortest net 2
futures positioning value (Pos.) in real USD terms and 10 = highest price level/
Post-2017 Min
longest net investor futures positioning value (Pos.) in real USD terms since start of 0
2011, except TTF Natgas (2018) , Red bar = Latest level & blue bar = range in the BCOMIN Index Pos. BCOMPR Index Pos.
last six months Base Precious

Post-2010 Max
10 Source: CFTC, COMEX, NYMEX, LME, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, *NYMEX and
COMEX metals are aggregate of Managed Money and Other Reportable net futures positioning
8 value in real USD terms while LME metals are aggregate of investment fund and other financial
firms net positioning value in real USD terms. Copper is aggregate of investment fund and other
financial firms net futures positioning value for LME and Managed Money and Other Reportable
6
net futures positioning value for COMEX, Aggregate positioning value includes data for LME
Copper, COMEX Copper, LME Aluminium, LME Zinc, LME Nickel, COMEX Gold, COMEX Silver.
4 Data as of close 17 Sep, except for LME Metals with data as of close 13 Sep 2024.

Post-2010 Min
0
BCOMEN Pos. ICE Brent Pos. ICE Gasoil Pos. NYMEX Nat Pos.
Index gas
Aggregate Crude Oil Petroleum Products Natural Gas

Source: CFTC, ICE, NYMEX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, NYMEX and ICE commodi-
ties are aggregate of Managed Money and Other Reportable net futures positioning value in real
USD terms, Aggregate positioning value includes data for ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI, NYMEX Gas-
oline, ICE Gasoil, NYMEX Nat gas, ICE Endex TTF Nat gas. Data as of close 17 Sep, while ICE
Endex Natgas TTF data as of close 13 Sep 2024.

10

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
J.P. Morgan Securities plc 24 September 2024
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245
[email protected] [email protected]

Figure 21: Base Metals standardised level chart Figure 24: Agriculture underlying commodities standardised level
0-10 scale using levels since the start of 2018, 0= lowest price level/ shortest net chart
futures positioning value (Pos.) in real USD terms and 10 = highest price level/ 0-10 scale using levels since the start of 2008, 0= lowest price level/ shortest net
longest investment net futures positioning value (Pos.) in real USD terms since start futures positioning value (Pos.) in real USD terms and 10 = highest price level/
of 2018. Red bar = Latest level & blue bar = range in the last six months longest investment net futures positioning value (Pos.) in real USD terms since start
10 Post-2017 Max
of 2008. Red bar = Latest level & blue bar = range in the last six months
10Post-2007 Max

8
8

6 6

4 4

2
2
Post-2007 Min
0
Post-2017 Min
Price Pos. Price Pos. Price Pos. Price Pos. Price Pos. Price Pos.
0
CBOT Corn CBOT Soybean CBOT Wheat Kansas Wheat ICE #11 Sugar ICE #2 Cotton
Price Pos. Price Pos. Price Pos. Price Pos.
LME & COMEX Copper LME Aluminium LME Nickel LME Zinc
Source: CFTC, CBOT, ICE, CME, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, ICE and CBOT commod-
ities are aggregate of Managed Money and Other Reportable net futures positioning value in real
Source: CFTC, COMEX, LME, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, *NYMEX and COMEX met-
USD terms. Data as of close 17 Sep 2024.
als are aggregate of Managed Money and Other Reportable net futures positioning value in real
USD terms while LME metals are aggregate of investment fund and other financial firms net
positioning value in real USD terms. Copper is aggregate of investment fund and other financial Environment markets standardised level chart
firms net futures positioning value for LME and Managed Money and Other Reportable net
futures positioning value for COMEX, data as of close 17 Sep, while LME metals data as of
close 13 Sep 2024. Figure 25: Environment markets standardised level chart
0-10 scale using levels since the start of 2018 for EUA, mid-2021 for UKE, 0= lowest
Figure 22: Precious Metals standardised level chart price level/ shortest net futures positioning value (Pos.) in real USD and 10 = highest
0-10 scale using levels since the start of 2018, 0= lowest price level/ shortest net price level/longest investment net futures positioning value (Pos.) in real USD terms
futures positioning value (Pos.) in real USD terms and 10 = highest price level/ since start of 2018 for EUA, mid-2021 for UKE. Red bar = Latest level & blue bar =
longest investment net futures positioning value (Pos.) in real USD terms since start range in the last six months
of 2018. Red bar = Latest level & blue bar = range in the last six months Post-2017 Max
10
10 Post-2017 Max

8
8
6

4
6
2

Post-2017 Min
0
Price Pos. Price Pos. Price Pos. Price Pos.
4
COMEX Gold COMEX Silver NYMEX Platinum NYMEX Palladium

Source: CFTC, NYMEX, COMEX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, NYMEX and COMEX 2
metals are aggregate of Managed Money and Other Reportable net futures positioning value in Post-2017 Min
real USD terms. Data as of close 17 Sep 2024.
0
Price Pos. Price Pos.
Agri markets standardised level chart
ICE EUA ICE UKE

Figure 23: Agriculture commodities sectoral standardised level chart

Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, ICE commodities are aggregate of
0-10 scale using levels since the start of 2008, 0= lowest price level/ shortest net investment fund and other financial firms net futures positioning value, as of close 17 Sep 2024.
futures positioning value (Pos.) in real USD terms and 10 = highest price level/
longest investment net futures positioning value (Pos.) in real USD terms since start
of 2008. Red bar = Latest level & blue bar = range in the last six months
10Post-2007 Max

Post-2007 Min
0
Price Pos. BCOMGR Index Pos. ICE #11 Sugar Pos. CME Live cattle Pos.
Aggregate Grains and oilseeds Softs Livestock

Source: CFTC, CBOT, ICE, CME, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, ICE, CME and CBOT
commodities are aggregate of Managed Money and Other Reportable net futures positioning val-
ue in real USD terms., Aggregate positioning value includes data for CBOT Corn, CBOT Soy-
bean, CBOT Soybean Oil, CBOT Soybean Meal, CBOT Wheat, Kansas Wheat, ICE Sugar
No.11, ICE Cotton No. 2, ICE Coffee, ICE Cocoa, CME Live Cattle, CME Feeder Cattle, CME
Lean Hogs. Data as of close 17 Sep 2024.

11

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
Commodity Market Positioning &
J.P. Morgan Securities plc Flows
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245 24 September 2024
[email protected] [email protected]

Estimated energy open interest on major global exchange

Table 4: Estimated open interest and flows

US$ million (unless stated)
Number of Total estimated
futures markets open interest Cumulative flows
Sector Count 20-Sep-24 1 Week 1 Month 3 Months 2024 ytd
Energy 16 $599,016 -$5,816 $2,123 $2,821 $101,046
Crude Oil 5 $341,867 -$4,671 $1,876 -$4,839 $38,547
WTI Crude Oil 2 $165,663 -$2,078 -$2,058 $6,394 $20,629
NYM WTI Crude Oil 1 $120,998 -$5,350 -$752 $4,070 $14,953
ICE WTI Crude Oil 1 $44,665 $3,272 -$1,305 $2,324 $5,675
ICE Brent Crude Oil 1 $171,781 -$2,468 $4,430 -$10,862 $20,330
Other 2 $4,423 -$125 -$497 -$371 -$2,411
DME Oman Crude Oil
TCM M.E. Crude Oil 1 $769 -$8 $39 -$118 -$256
INE Crude Oil 1 $3,654 -$117 -$536 -$254 -$2,155
Petroleum Products 7 $136,729 -$2,780 $2,747 $746 $37,089
Distillates 3 $104,614 -$2,565 $1,606 $3,715 $34,991
NYM ULSD 1 $39,974 -$382 $969 $6,942 $13,414
ICE Heating Oil 1 $3,148 -$106 -$2 $74 $1,019
ICE Gas Oil 1 $61,492 -$2,077 $640 -$3,301 $20,557
RBOB Gasoline 1 $29,596 -$210 $868 -$3,271 $2,148
Fuel Oil 3 $2,519 -$4 $272 $302 -$50
SFE Fuel Oil 1 $1,970 $12 $196 -$76 -$486
NYM Fuel Oil (Rotterdam) 1 $115 $0 -$4 $87 $95
NYM Fuel Oil (380cst) 1 $434 -$16 $81 $291 $341
NYM Fuel Oil (180cst)
Ethanol 1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Natural Gas 3 $120,419 $1,635 -$2,500 $6,914 $25,409
ICE UK Natural Gas 1 $13,275 $514 -$941 $2,019 $4,605
ICE Endex TTF Natural Gas 1 $59,291 $989 -$1,070 $2,504 $13,067
NYM Natural Gas 1 $47,854 $132 -$489 $2,391 $7,737
Source: Exchanges, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 26: Weekly change in total OI from changes in contracts (flows)

US$ million (unless stated)
-2,793

-18,360
-3,710

11,357

14,942
3,326

-1,091

-5,816
-5,667
9,465

-736

1,905

$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
-$5,000
-$10,000
-$15,000
-$20,000
-$25,000

Crude Oil Petroleum Products Natural Gas Ethanol

Source: Exchanges, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

12

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
J.P. Morgan Securities plc 24 September 2024
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245
[email protected] [email protected]

Estimated environmental markets open interest on major global exchanges

Table 5: Estimated open interest and flows

US$ million (unless stated)
Number of Total estimated
futures markets open interest Cumulative flows
Sector Count 20-Sep-24 1 Week 1 Month 3 Months 2024 ytd
Environmental Markets 3 $67,927 $1,323 $4,934 $10,208 $31,164
European Union Allowances 2 $64,964 $1,267 $4,708 $9,468 $29,616
ICE European Union Allowances 1 $50,647 $1,094 $4,046 $7,607 $22,015
EEX European Union Allowances 1 $14,317 $173 $662 $1,862 $7,601
UK ETS 1 $2,963 $56 $227 $740 $1,548
Source: Exchanges, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 27: Weekly change in total OI from changes in contracts (flows)

US$ million (unless stated)
1,388

1,670
231

1,053

1,139

1,323
679

333

803
528

720
341

$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0
-$500

EUA UK ETS
Source: Exchanges, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

13

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
Commodity Market Positioning &
J.P. Morgan Securities plc Flows
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245 24 September 2024
[email protected] [email protected]

Estimated precious metals open interest on major global exchanges

Table 6: Estimated open interest and flows

US$ million (unless stated)
Number of Total estimated
futures markets open interest Cumulative flows
Sector 20-Sep-24 1 Week 1 Month 3 Months 2024 ytd
Precious Metals 9 $217,730 $4,163 $4,480 $20,673 -$595
Gold 4 $189,191 $3,597 $5,866 $23,218 -$1,486
CMX gold 1 $146,872 $2,780 $7,972 $26,935 $15,484
SHFE gold 1 $33,452 $826 -$1,042 $3,854 -$10,995
TCM gold 1 $3,320 -$81 $101 -$949 -$707
TEF gold
TKD gold 1 $5,547 $72 -$1,164 -$6,623 -$5,268
Silver 1 $22,308 $947 -$514 -$1,773 $414
Platinum 2 $4,201 -$279 -$69 -$51 $160
NYM platinum 1 $3,782 -$272 -$65 -$10 $197
TCM platinum 1 $419 -$7 -$4 -$42 -$38
Palladium 2 $2,030 -$103 -$803 -$720 $317
NYM palladium 1 $2,030 -$103 -$803 -$720 $317
TCM palladium 1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Source: Exchanges, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 28: Weekly change in total OI from changes in contracts (flows)

US$ million (unless stated)
-29,437

11,808

11,568
10,005

13,217

22,745

-9,753

-4,819

-6,432
-3,328

4,163
937

$12,000

-$4,000

-$20,000

-$36,000

Gold Silver Platinum Palladium

Source: Exchanges, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

14

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
J.P. Morgan Securities plc 24 September 2024
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245
[email protected] [email protected]

Estimated industrial and bulk metals open interest on major global exchanges

Table 7: Estimated open interest and flows

US$ million (unless stated)
Number of Total estimated
futures markets open interest Cumulative flows
Sector 20-Sep-24 1 Week 1 Month 3 Months 2024 ytd
Industrial and Bulk 16 $196,841 $1,556 -$4,164 -$20,989 $9,240
Base Metals 11 $169,841 $651 -$4,848 -$21,893 $8,119
Copper 3 $89,669 $2,026 -$3,714 -$17,351 $4,809
LME Copper 1 $43,384 $800 -$1,659 -$9,330 $1,977
SHFE Copper 1 $24,372 $531 -$660 -$3,375 $2,151
CMX Copper 1 $21,913 $696 -$1,395 -$4,646 $681
Aluminum 2 $36,337 -$353 -$532 -$1,126 -$3,270
LME Aluminum 1 $30,427 -$487 -$370 -$88 -$1,777
SHFE Aluminum 1 $5,910 $134 -$163 -$1,038 -$1,493
Lead 2 $10,105 -$1,119 -$2,037 -$5,333 $911
LME Lead 1 $4,604 -$449 -$298 $66 $623
SHFE Lead 1 $5,500 -$670 -$1,739 -$5,399 $288
Zinc 2 $15,198 -$211 $897 $387 $2,326
LME Zinc 1 $11,519 -$470 $1,369 $303 $1,785
SHFE Zinc 1 $3,679 $259 -$472 $84 $541
Nickel 1 $17,107 $419 $549 $1,683 $3,173
Tin 1 $1,425 -$111 -$10 -$154 $170
Bulk Commodities 5 $27,000 $905 $683 $904 $1,121
Coal 3 $4,973 $4 -$308 -$272 -$427
ICE Richards Bay Coal 1 $163 $2 -$10 -$87 $14
ICE Rotterdam Coal 1 $2,606 $99 -$234 -$327 -$1,002
DCE Coking Coal 1 $2,204 -$97 -$64 $142 $562
CAPP Coal
NYM PRB Coal
DCE Coking Coal 1 $2,204 -$97 -$64 $142 $562
Iron Ore 1 $8,032 $515 $574 $819 -$685
DCE Iron Ore 1 $8,032 $515 $574 $819 -$685
Steel 1 $13,995 $386 $417 $357 $2,233
Source: Exchanges, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 29: Weekly change in total OI from changes in contracts (flows)

US$ million (unless stated)
-4,050
-7,462

-3,676

-1,754

-3,541

-4,173

-1,751
3,407

1,556
-417

669

203

$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$0
-$2,000
-$4,000
-$6,000
-$8,000

Copper Aluminum Lead Zinc Nickel Tin Bulk

Source: Exchanges, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

15

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
Commodity Market Positioning &
J.P. Morgan Securities plc Flows
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245 24 September 2024
[email protected] [email protected]

Estimated grains and oilseeds open interest on major global exchanges

Table 8: Estimated open interest and flows

US$ million (unless stated)
Number of Total estimated
futures markets open interest Cumulative flows
Sector 20-Sep-24 1 Week 1 Month 3 Months 2024 ytd
Grains & Oilseeds 12 $159,640 $2,245 -$3,788 $2,099 $22,307
Corn 2 $34,267 $147 -$1,646 -$1,384 $3,336
CBT Corn 1 $30,195 -$96 -$1,600 -$1,674 $3,763
DCE Corn 1 $4,071 $243 -$45 $289 -$427
Wheat 4 $25,641 -$243 -$2,589 -$975 -$1,927
CBT Wheat 1 $10,340 -$368 -$1,839 -$1,686 $8
KBT Wheat 1 $6,816 -$41 -$388 $267 $1,333
Other Wheat 2 $8,485 $167 -$362 $445 -$3,268
Soybeans 2 $45,483 $786 $1,179 $4,061 $11,861
CBT Soybeans 1 $44,184 $513 $1,250 $4,049 $11,898
DCE Soybeans 1 $1,300 $273 -$71 $11 -$38
Soybean Meal 2 $30,448 $786 -$1,098 $1,487 $6,407
CBT Soybean Meal 1 $17,068 $472 -$269 $1,446 $3,127
DCE Soybean Meal 1 $13,380 $315 -$829 $41 $3,280
Soybean Oil 2 $23,800 $767 $365 -$1,090 $2,631
CBT Soybean Oil 1 $13,727 $30 -$187 -$535 $2,082
DCE Soybean Oil 1 $10,073 $737 $552 -$555 $549
Source: Exchanges, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 30: Weekly change in total OI from changes in contracts (flows)

US$ million (unless stated)
4,980

-3,505

-4,020

-1,807

-3,544

-2,779
2,549

3,207
2,562

1,921

2,245
291

$8,000

$4,000

$0

-$4,000

-$8,000

Corn Wheat Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil

Source: Exchanges, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

16

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
J.P. Morgan Securities plc 24 September 2024
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245
[email protected] [email protected]

Estimated soft and livestock open interest on major global exchanges

Table 9: Estimated open interest and flows

US$ million (unless stated)
Number of Total estimated
futures markets open interest Cumulative flows
Sector 20-Sep-24 1 Week 1 Month 3 Months 2024 ytd
Softs and Livestock 15 $124,104 $4,752 $3,818 $1,373 -$21,452
Softs 11 $86,412 $3,598 $1,649 $122 -$29,673
Raw Sugar 1 $19,229 -$592 -$729 $98 -$746
White Sugar 2 $7,583 $34 -$571 -$177 -$1,128
LIF White Sugar 1 $3,079 -$107 -$198 $181 $788
ZCE White Sugar 1 $4,504 $141 -$373 -$358 -$1,916
Cotton 2 $14,659 $154 $197 -$282 -$3,582
NYB-ICE Cotton 1 $8,611 $97 $132 $709 $1,383
ZCE Cotton 1 $6,048 $58 $65 -$991 -$4,965
Coffee 2 $23,746 $735 $1,560 $145 -$2,128
NYB-ICE Coffee 1 $19,282 $699 $1,479 -$45 -$1,723
LIF Robusta Coffee 1 $4,465 $36 $81 $190 -$406
Cocoa 2 $20,199 $3,231 $1,098 $76 -$22,300
NYB-ICE Cocoa 1 $9,806 $2,466 $3,091 $2,898 -$9,426
LIF Cocoa 1 $10,393 $765 -$1,993 -$2,822 -$12,874
Rough Rice 1 $298 $7 $23 $154 $41
Orange Juice 1 $697 $28 $71 $107 $170
Livestock 4 $37,692 $1,154 $2,168 $1,251 $8,222
Live Cattle 2 $22,979 $711 $1,779 $93 $3,698
CME Live Cattle 1 $22,331 $680 $1,709 $51 $3,653
Feeder Cattle 1 $6,358 -$3 -$344 $316 $91
Lean Hogs 1 $8,355 $446 $734 $842 $4,433
Source: Exchanges, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 31: Weekly change in total OI from changes in contracts (flows)

US$ million (unless stated)
-1,695

-6,756
-1,732

-1,464
4,167

3,327

4,752
-118

-283
646

620
-89

$3,000

$1,000

-$1,000

-$3,000

Sugar Cotton Coffee Cocoa Livestock Other

Source: Exchanges, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

17

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
Commodity Market Positioning &
J.P. Morgan Securities plc Flows
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245 24 September 2024
[email protected] [email protected]

Summary of CFTC disaggregated data by commodity and group

ICE Brent crude oil

Contracts (futures and options)

PMPU Swap Dealers Managed Money Other Reportables Non-Reportables
17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg
ICE BRENT CRUDE OIL

Long 921,214 935,496 -14,282 439,445 428,664 10,781 185,404 196,286 -10,882 149,662 140,388 9,274 71,238 66,678 4,560
Short 1,249,178 1,256,747 -7,569 54,965 50,471 4,494 143,759 116,214 27,545 265,875 294,976 -29,101 53,186 49,104 4,082

Net Position -327,964 -321,251 -6,713 384,480 378,193 6,287 41,645 80,072 -38,427 -116,213 -154,588 38,375 18,052 17,574 478
Spreading 293,517 291,065 2,452 383,549 387,071 -3,522 452,544 409,833 42,711

Source: CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research. Note: contracts are shown as reported by the CFTC—each reported spreading contract actually represents two positions (a long and a short), an
important fact for accurately calculating actual open interest.

Figure 32: Weekly change in open interest by trading Figure 33: Gross PMPU position and price
group LHS: lots (1,000), RHS: USD/bbl
US$ million (futures and options)
$4,000 3,368 1,500 150
$3,000 1,000
$2,000
125
1,181 500
$1,000 353 700 100
$0 0
75
-$1,000 -660 -522 -380 -500
-799 -1,000 50
-$2,000
-1,500 25
Short

Short

Short
Spread

Spread

Spread
Long

Long

Long

-2,000 0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money PMPU gross short PMPU gross length
ICE Brent (RHS)

Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 34: Weekly change in OI from changes in Figure 35: Open interest share by trader type
contracts & price %
US$ million (futures and options)
$5,000 45%
2,820
796
165

405

$3,000
865

384
316

548
605

91

$1,000 30%
-$1,000
-472
-30

-96
-825
-1,404

-927

-$3,000 15%
-$5,000
Short

Short

Short
Spread

Spread

Spread
Long

Long

Long

0%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money Managed Money Producer/Mer/Proc/EndUser
Change due to positions Change due to price
Other Reportables Swap Dealers

Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 36: Seasonal Managed Money net length Figure 37: Price momentum
Lots (1,000) LHS: Z-score, RHS: USD/bbl
500 6.0 190
4.0 150
400 2.0 110
300 0.0
-2.0 70
200 -4.0 30
100 -6.0 -10
0
-100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec z-score (Long) z-score (Short)
*JPM estimate (as of 20 Sep) Max threshold Min threshold
5-yr avg Price (RHS)
2023
2024

Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, *Forecasts supplied Source: ICE, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Commodities Research
by JP Morgan GQDS Research, see methodology here

18

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
J.P. Morgan Securities plc 24 September 2024
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245
[email protected] [email protected]

NYM WTI crude oil

Contracts (futures and options)

PMPU Swap Dealers Managed Money Other Reportables Non-Reportables
17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg
NYM WTI CRUDE OIL

Long 574,828 566,650 8,178 54,751 51,219 3,532 186,139 214,268 -28,129 111,478 95,772 15,706 94,283 81,945 12,338
Short 409,277 427,720 -18,443 459,671 465,303 -5,632 61,271 27,741 33,530 31,561 33,674 -2,113 59,700 55,416 4,284

Net Position 165,551 138,930 26,621 -404,920 -414,084 9,164 124,868 186,527 -61,659 79,917 62,098 17,819 34,583 26,529 8,054
Spreading 207,897 193,955 13,942 501,692 512,553 -10,861 489,411 478,913 10,498

Source: CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research. Note: contracts are shown as reported by the CFTC—each reported spreading contract actually represents two positions (a long and a short), an
important fact for accurately calculating actual open interest.

Figure 38: Weekly change in open interest by trading Figure 39: Gross PMPU position and price
group LHS: lots (1,000), RHS: USD/bbl
US$ million (futures and options)
$6,000 140
$4,000 3,297 750
2,178 500 120
$2,000 151 210 100
250
$0 80
-415 0
-$2,000 -106 -250 60
-$4,000 -500 40
-$6,000 -3,341 -4,051
-750 20
Short

Short

Short
Spread

Spread
Long

Long

Long

Spread

-1,000 0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money PMPU gross short PMPU gross length
NYMEX WTI (RHS)

Source: CFTC, NYMEX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, NYMEX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 40: Weekly change in OI from changes in Figure 41: Open interest share by trader type
contracts & price %
US$ million (futures and options)
$9,000 50%
2,238
2,561

1,231

$6,000 40%
736

212
706

452
91
60

$3,000
$0 30%
-$3,000
-2,815

-1,645
-317
-4,502

-60

20%
-496
-526

-$6,000
-$9,000 10%
Short

Short

Short
Spread

Spread
Spread
Long

Long

Long

0%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money Managed Money Producer/Mer/Proc/EndUser
Change due to positions Change due to price Other Reportables Swap Dealers

Source: CFTC, NYMEX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, NYMEX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 42: Seasonal Managed Money net length Figure 43: Price momentum
Lots (1,000) LHS: Z-score, RHS: USD/bbl
600 8.0 150
4.0 110
400 0.0 70
-4.0 30
-8.0 -10
200 -12.0 -50

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
z-score (Long) z-score (Short)
*JPM estimate (as of 20 Sep) Max threshold Min threshold
5-yr avg Price (RHS)
2023
2024

Source: CFTC, NYMEX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, *Forecasts Source: NYMEX, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Commodities
supplied by JP Morgan GQDS Research, see methodology here Research

19

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
Commodity Market Positioning &
J.P. Morgan Securities plc Flows
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245 24 September 2024
[email protected] [email protected]

NYM RBOB Gasoline

Contracts (futures and options)

PMPU Swap Dealers Managed Money Other Reportables Non-Reportables
17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg
NYM RBOB GASOLINE

Long 116,015 121,548 -5,533 48,495 45,742 2,753 53,795 54,287 -492 22,987 22,995 -8 16,961 16,788 173
Short 150,973 157,758 -6,785 29,524 30,619 -1,095 37,127 36,708 419 19,877 18,116 1,761 20,752 18,160 2,592

Net Position -34,958 -36,210 1,252 18,971 15,123 3,848 16,668 17,579 -911 3,110 4,879 -1,769 -3,791 -1,372 -2,419
Spreading 4,693 7,738 -3,045 55,794 53,151 2,643 18,729 22,068 -3,339

Source: CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research. Note: contracts are shown as reported by the CFTC—each reported spreading contract actually represents two positions (a long and a short), an
important fact for accurately calculating actual open interest.

Figure 44: Weekly change in open interest by trading Figure 45: Gross PMPU position and price
group LHS: lots (1,000), RHS: USc/gal
US$ million (futures and options)
$1,000 623 200 450
641 400
$500 392
116 158 350
$0 0 300
-12 250
-$500 -178 200
-307 -200 150
-$1,000 100
50
Short

Short

Short
Spread

Spread

Spread
Long

Long

Long

-400 0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money PMPU gross short PMPU gross length
NYM RBOB Gasoline (RHS)

Source: CFTC, NYMEX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, NYMEX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 46: Weekly change in OI from changes in Figure 47: Open interest share by trader type
contracts & price %
US$ million (futures and options)
$1,000 60%
502
415

209
619
151

$500 50%
121
22
59

54
61

$0 40%
-71

-$500
-23

-51
-104

30%
Long -329

-203

-$1,000
20%
Short

Short

Short
Spread

Spread

Spread
Long

Long

10%
0%
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Change due to positions Change due to price Managed Money Producer/Mer/Proc/EndUser
Other Reportables Swap Dealers

Source: CFTC, NYMEX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, NYMEX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 48: Seasonal Managed Money net length Figure 49: Price momentum
Lots (1,000) LHS: Z-score, RHS: USc/gal
150 6.0 450
4.0 350
100 2.0 250
0.0
-2.0 150
50 -4.0 50
-6.0 -50
0

-50 z-score (Long) z-score (Short)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Max threshold Min threshold
5-yr avg Price (RHS)
2023
2024
*JPM estimate (as of 20 Sep)

Source: CFTC, NYMEX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, *Forecasts Source: NYMEX, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Commodities
supplied by JP Morgan GQDS Research, see methodology here Research

20

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
J.P. Morgan Securities plc 24 September 2024
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245
[email protected] [email protected]

ICE Gasoil

Contracts (futures and options)

PMPU Swap Dealers Managed Money Other Reportables Non-Reportables
17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg
ICE GAS OIL

Long 303,088 308,708 -5,620 343,991 337,841 6,150 47,992 49,165 -1,173 27,783 26,584 1,199 29,317 26,469 2,848
Short 471,277 479,037 -7,760 1,166 2,062 -896 86,191 75,624 10,567 165,333 165,055 278 28,204 26,989 1,215

Net Position -168,189 -170,329 2,140 342,825 335,779 7,046 -38,199 -26,459 -11,740 -137,550 -138,471 921 1,113 -520 1,633
Spreading 40,565 39,992 573 90,314 89,442 872 86,781 94,527 -7,746

Source: CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research. Note: contracts are shown as reported by the CFTC—each reported spreading contract actually represents two positions (a long and a short), an
important fact for accurately calculating actual open interest.

Figure 50: Weekly change in open interest by trading Figure 51: Gross PMPU position and price
group LHS: lots (1,000), RHS: USD/T
US$ million (futures and options)
$1,000 629 600 1,600
$500 400 1,400
15 200 1,200
$0 1,000
-35 0
-$500 -392 -234 -207 -396 -200
800
-577 600
-$1,000 -400 400
Short

Short

Short
Spread

Spread

Spread
Long

Long

Long

-600 200
-800 0
2019 2020gross 2021
PMPU short 2022 2023PMPU gross
2024 length
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money
ICE Gasoil (RHS)

Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 52: Weekly change in OI from changes in Figure 53: Open interest share by trader type
contracts & price %
US$ million (futures and options)
$3,000 60%
649
1,053

50%
147

$1,000
135
2
76

40%
-120

-$1,000
-52
-468
-1,226

-135
-424

-261

30%
-182
-37

-355

-$3,000 20%
Short

Short

Short
Spread

Spread
Spread
Long

Long

Long

10%
0%
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Change due to positions Change due to price Managed Money Producer/Mer/Proc/EndUser
Other Reportables Swap Dealers

Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 54: Seasonal Managed Money net length Figure 55: Price momentum
Lots (1,000) LHS: Z-score, RHS: USD/T
250 8.0 1,600
4.0 1,300
150 1,000
0.0
700
50 -4.0 400
-8.0 100
-50

-150
z-score (Long) z-score (Short)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Max threshold Min threshold
5-yr avg 2023 Price (RHS)

2024

Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: ICE, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

21

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
Commodity Market Positioning &
J.P. Morgan Securities plc Flows
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245 24 September 2024
[email protected] [email protected]

NYM Natural Gas

Contracts (futures and options)

PMPU Swap Dealers Managed Money Other Reportables Non-Reportables
17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg
NYM NATURAL GAS

Long 233,334 228,807 4,527 173,497 166,319 7,178 220,226 219,854 372 77,817 83,324 -5,507 61,160 58,634 2,526
Short 285,081 280,704 4,377 36,618 36,271 347 290,182 290,561 -379 108,584 105,437 3,147 45,569 43,966 1,603

Net Position -51,747 -51,897 150 136,879 130,048 6,831 -69,956 -70,707 751 -30,767 -22,113 -8,654 15,591 14,668 923
Spreading 195,387 200,783 -5,396 437,672 408,838 28,834 176,049 181,009 -4,960

Source: CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research. Note: contracts are shown as reported by the CFTC—each reported spreading contract actually represents two positions (a long and a short), an
important fact for accurately calculating actual open interest.

Figure 56: Weekly change in open interest by trading Figure 57: Gross PMPU position and price
group LHS: lots (1,000), RHS: USD/mmbtu
US$ million (futures and options)
$3,000 400 11
1,676
$2,000
$1,000 680 9
18 82 200
151
$0
7
-$1,000 -325 -181 -9
0
-$2,000 5
Short

Short

Short
Spread

Spread

Spread
Long

Long

Long

-200
3

PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money -400 1

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
PMPU gross short PMPU gross length
NYM Natural Gas (RHS)

Source: CFTC, NYMEX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, NYMEX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 58: Weekly change in OI from changes in Figure 59: Open interest share by trader type
contracts & price %
US$ million (futures and options)
$4,000 50%
1,130
783

$2,000
359

546

40%
177
128

132

129
6

$0 30%
-159

-47
-14
-313
-208
-453

-$2,000
-103

20%
-$4,000
10%
Short

Short

Short
Spread

Spread

Spread
Long

Long

Long

0%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money
Change due to positions Change due to price Managed Money Producer/Mer/Proc/EndUser
Other Reportables Swap Dealers

Source: CFTC, NYMEX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, NYMEX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 60: Seasonal Managed Money net length Figure 61: Price momentum
Lots (1,000) LHS: Z-score, RHS: USD/mmbtu
200 6.0 10
4.0 8
100 2.0 6
0.0 4
0 -2.0 2
-4.0 0
-100
-200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec z-score (Long) z-score (Short)
Max threshold Min threshold
*JPM estimate (as of 20 Sep) Price (RHS)
5-yr avg
2023
2024

Source: CFTC, NYMEX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, *Forecasts Source: NYMEX, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Commodities
supplied by JP Morgan GQDS Research, see methodology here Research

22

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
J.P. Morgan Securities plc 24 September 2024
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245
[email protected] [email protected]

ICE Endex TTF Natgas

Contracts in MWh (futures and options)

Commercial Undertakings Investment funds Investment/Credit firms Other financial institutes Directive Compliance Obligations
13-Sep-24 6-Sep-24 Wkly Chg 13-Sep-24 6-Sep-24 Wkly Chg 13-Sep-24 6-Sep-24 Wkly Chg 13-Sep-24 6-Sep-24 Wkly Chg 13-Sep-24 6-Sep-24 Wkly Chg
ICE Endex TTF Natgas

Long 919,641,426 907,321,083 12,320,343 443,878,005 446,211,910 -2,333,905 119,181,112 113,377,193 5,803,919 147,995 155,570 -7,575 0 0 0
Short 934,643,681 948,785,230 -14,141,549 222,692,542 203,192,556 19,499,986 320,815,137 314,476,224 6,338,913 838,855 838,855 0 0 0 0

Net Position -15,002,255 -41,464,147 26,461,892 221,185,464 243,019,354 -21,833,890 -201,634,025 -201,099,032 -534,993 -690,860 -683,285 -7,575 0 0 0

Source: CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research. Note: contracts are shown as reported by the CFTC—each reported spreading contract actually represents two positions (a long and a short), an
important fact for accurately calculating actual open interest.

Figure 62: Weekly change in open interest by trading Figure 63: Gross commercial position and price
group LHS: MWh (million), RHS: EUR/MWh
US$ billion (futures and options, contracts in MWh)
$400 1,500 175
95 155
23 1,000
$0 135
500 115
-$400 -242 -366 -438 0
95
75
-$800 -500 55
35
-1,048 -1,000
-$1,200 15
Long Short Long Short Long Short -1,500 -5
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Commercial Undertakings Investment/Credit firms Investment funds
Commercial gross long Commercial gross short
ICE Endex TTF Natgas (RHS)

Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 64: Weekly change in OI from changes in Figure 65: Open interest share by trader type
contracts & price %
US$ billion (futures and options, contracts in MWh)
100%
$1,000
148

80%
174

214
370

$0 60%
-623
-613

-79

-70
-191

-296
-425

-586

40%
-$1,000
Long Short Long Short Long Short
20%
Commercial Investment/Credit firms Investment funds
Undertakings 0%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Investment funds & Other Financial Institutions
Change due to positions Change due to price
Investment firms / credit firms
Commercial Undertakings

Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 66: Seasonal Investment funds net length Figure 67: Price momentum
MWh (million) LHS: Z-score, RHS: EUR/Mwh
400 15.0 350

200 10.0 250

5.0
0 150
0.0
-200 -5.0 50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-10.0 -50
5-Yr Av 2023 2024

z-score (Long) z-score (Short) Max threshold

Min threshold Price (RHS)

Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: ICE, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

23

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
Commodity Market Positioning &
J.P. Morgan Securities plc Flows
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245 24 September 2024
[email protected] [email protected]

ICE EUA

Contracts (futures and options)

Commercial Undertakings Investment funds Investment/Credit firms Other financial institutes Directive Compliance Obligations
13-Sep-24 6-Sep-24 Wkly Chg 13-Sep-24 6-Sep-24 Wkly Chg 13-Sep-24 6-Sep-24 Wkly Chg 13-Sep-24 6-Sep-24 Wkly Chg 13-Sep-24 6-Sep-24 Wkly Chg
ICE EUA

Long 348,765 342,304 6,461 43,574 40,291 3,284 274,669 267,421 7,248 2,129 2,151 -22 80,262 78,597 1,665
Short 57,514 55,619 1,895 65,096 54,529 10,567 624,536 618,368 6,168 600 559 41 1,793 1,747 46

Net Position 291,251 286,685 4,566 -21,521 -14,238 -7,283 -349,867 -350,947 1,080 1,529 1,592 -63 78,470 76,850 1,619

Source: CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research. Note: contracts are shown as reported by the CFTC—each reported spreading contract actually represents two positions (a long and a short), an
important fact for accurately calculating actual open interest.

Figure 68: Weekly change in open interest by trading Figure 69: Gross commercial position and price
group LHS: lots (1,000), RHS: EUR/MtCO2e
US$ million (futures and options)
$1,000 1,000 120
559 800 100
169 600
85 80
45 400
$0 60
-92 200
40
0
-666 -200 20
-$1,000
Long Short Long Short Long Short -400 0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Commercial Undertakings Investment/Credit firms Investment funds
Commercial gross long Commercial gross short
ICE EUA (RHS)

Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 70: Weekly change in OI from changes in Figure 71: Open interest share by trader type
contracts & price %
US$ million (futures and options)
70%
$2,000 60%
1,010

50%
472

240
138

-70

40%
105

$0 30%
-444
-564

529

-450
-93

20%
-772

10%
-$2,000 0%
Long Short Long Short Long Short 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Commercial Investment/Credit firms Investment funds Investment funds & Other Financial Institutions
Undertakings Investment firms / credit firms
Commercial Undertakings
Directive Compliance Obligations
Change due to positions Change due to price

Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 72: Seasonal Investment funds net length Figure 73: Price momentum
Lots (1,000) LHS: Z-score, RHS: EUR/MtCO2e.
75 5.0 100
3.0 80
25 1.0 60
-1.0 40
-25
-3.0 20
-75 -5.0 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
5-Yr Av 2023 2024 z-score (Long) z-score (Short) Max threshold

Min threshold Price (RHS)

Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: ICE, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

24

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
J.P. Morgan Securities plc 24 September 2024
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245
[email protected] [email protected]

CMX Gold

Contracts (futures and options)

PMPU Swap Dealers Managed Money Other Reportables Non-Reportables
17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg
CMX GOLD

Long 34,058 35,157 -1,099 50,964 48,757 2,207 242,861 251,097 -8,236 96,747 97,567 -820 57,589 61,305 -3,716
Short 101,562 101,043 519 291,875 305,245 -13,370 16,271 14,279 1,992 40,264 39,528 736 32,247 33,787 -1,540

Net Position -67,504 -65,886 -1,618 -240,911 -256,488 15,577 226,590 236,818 -10,228 56,483 58,039 -1,556 25,342 27,518 -2,176
Spreading 74,456 84,271 -9,815 65,133 74,033 -8,900 186,518 188,440 -1,922

Source: CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research. Note: contracts are shown as reported by the CFTC—each reported spreading contract actually represents two positions (a long and a short), an
important fact for accurately calculating actual open interest.

Figure 74: Weekly change in open interest by trading Figure 75: Gross PMPU position and price
group LHS: lots (1,000), RHS: USD/t oz.
US$ million (futures and options)
$12,000 200 2,800
6,305 8,243 6,455 2,600
$8,000 100
$4,000 1,576 2,400
0 2,200
$0 -100 2,000
-$4,000 -110 -401 1,800
-2,634 -1,448 -200 1,600
-$8,000 -300 1,400
1,200
Short

Short

Short
Spread

Spread

Spread
Long

Long

Long

-400 1,000
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money PMPU gross short PMPU gross length
CMX Gold (RHS)

Source: CFTC, CMX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, CMX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 76: Weekly change in OI from changes in Figure 77: Open interest share by trader type
contracts & price %
US$ million (futures and options)
$30,000 40%
19,562

6,799
1,445

5,614
1,355

5,373
14.48

$15,000
932

841
221

220

30%
$0
-627

-109
-1,668
-2,006

-$15,000 20%
Short -292

-$30,000
10%
Short

Short

Spread
Spread

Spread
Long

Long

Long

0%
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Change due to positions Change due to price Managed Money Producer/Mer/Proc/EndUser
Other Reportables Swap Dealers

Source: CFTC, CMX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, CMX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 78: Seasonal Managed Money net length Figure 79: Price momentum
Lots (1,000) LHS: Z-score, RHS: USD/t oz.
350 4.0 2,700
2.0 2,400
250 2,100
0.0
1,800
-2.0 1,500
150
-4.0 1,200
50
z-score (Long) z-score (Short)
-50
Max threshold Min threshold
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Price (RHS)
*JPM estimate (as of 20 Sep)
5-yr avg
2023
2024

Source: CFTC, CMX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, *Forecasts Source: CMX, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Commodities Research
supplied by JP Morgan GQDS Research, see methodology here

25

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
Commodity Market Positioning &
J.P. Morgan Securities plc Flows
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245 24 September 2024
[email protected] [email protected]

CMX Silver

Contracts (futures and options)

PMPU Swap Dealers Managed Money Other Reportables Non-Reportables
17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg
CMX SILVER

Long 6,923 6,985 -62 26,225 24,704 1,521 41,453 44,891 -3,438 19,340 19,575 -235 31,970 33,427 -1,457
Short 35,313 40,282 -4,969 58,334 61,196 -2,862 14,952 9,609 5,343 4,978 5,909 -931 12,335 12,586 -251

Net Position -28,390 -33,297 4,907 -32,109 -36,492 4,383 26,501 35,282 -8,781 14,362 13,666 696 19,635 20,841 -1,206
Spreading 6,644 13,431 -6,787 6,598 8,213 -1,615 25,877 26,855 -978

Source: CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research. Note: contracts are shown as reported by the CFTC—each reported spreading contract actually represents two positions (a long and a short), an
important fact for accurately calculating actual open interest.

Figure 80: Weekly change in open interest by trading Figure 81: Gross PMPU position and price
group %
US$ million (futures and options)
$2,500 2,253 40 30
$1,500 725 20
$500 110 284 92 0 25
-$500 -20 20
-240 -40
-$1,500 -60
-1,305 -1,687 15
-$2,500 -80
-100 10
Short

Short

Short
Spread

Spread

Spread
Long

Long

Long

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

PMPU gross short PMPU gross length
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money
CMX Silver (RHS)

Source: CFTC, CMX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, CMX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 82: Weekly change in OI from changes in Figure 83: Open interest share by trader type
contracts & price %
US$ million (futures and options)
$2,000 50%
487
383
212

140
1,767

$1,000
164
58

40%
51

$0
561

30%
-1,105

-48

-$1,000
-100
-380

-452

-582
-925

-$2,000 20%
Short

Short

Short
Spread

Spread

Spread
Long

Long

Long

10%
0%
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Change due to positions Change due to price Managed Money Producer/Mer/Proc/EndUser
Other Reportables Swap Dealers

Source: CFTC, CMX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, CMX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 84: Seasonal Managed Money net length Figure 85: Price momentum
Lots (1,000) LHS: Z-score, RHS: USD/t oz.
100 8.0 35
4.0 30
25
50 0.0 20
-4.0 15
10
0 -8.0 5

-50 z-score (Long) z-score (Short)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Max threshold Min threshold
*JPM estimate (as of 20 Sep) Price (RHS)
5-yr avg
2023

Source: CFTC, CMX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, *Forecasts Source: CMX, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Commodities Research
supplied by JP Morgan GQDS Research, see methodology here

26

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
J.P. Morgan Securities plc 24 September 2024
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245
[email protected] [email protected]

CMX Copper

Contracts (futures and options)

PMPU Swap Dealers Managed Money Other Reportables Non-Reportables
17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg
CMX COPPER

Long 27,225 26,946 279 36,811 35,652 1,159 56,312 66,731 -10,419 19,966 20,753 -787 20,639 21,696 -1,057
Short 65,607 70,630 -5,023 19,461 19,734 -273 41,760 47,811 -6,051 20,251 21,303 -1,052 13,874 12,300 1,574

Net Position -38,382 -43,684 5,302 17,350 15,918 1,432 14,552 18,920 -4,368 -285 -550 265 6,765 9,396 -2,631
Spreading 18,869 21,481 -2,612 31,735 33,345 -1,610 37,863 39,368 -1,505

Source: CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research. Note: contracts are shown as reported by the CFTC—each reported spreading contract actually represents two positions (a long and a short), an
important fact for accurately calculating actual open interest.

Figure 86: Weekly change in open interest by trading Figure 87: Gross PMPU position and price
group LHS: lots (1,000), RHS: USc/lb
US$ million (futures and options)
$900 615 538 100 560
539
$600 510
146 50 460
$300
$0 0 410
-102 360
-$300 -73 -50 310
-$600 -289 260
-587 -100
-$900 210
Long Short Spread Long Short Spread Long Short Spread -150 160
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money
PMPU gross short PMPU gross length
CMX Copper (RHS)

Source: CFTC, CMX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, CMX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 88: Weekly change in OI from changes in Figure 89: Open interest share by trader type
contracts & price %
US$ million (futures and options)
$900 50%
420

328

$600
177

210
438

40%
120
107
39

$300
39
74

$0 30%
-$300 20%
-65

-112
-224
-197
-176

-$600
-390

-$900 10%
Short

Short

Short
Spread

Spread

Spread
Long

Long

Long

0%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money Managed Money Producer/Mer/Proc/EndUser
Change due to positions Change due to price
Other Reportables Swap Dealers

Source: CFTC, CMX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, CMX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 90: Seasonal Managed Money net length Figure 91: Price momentum
Lots (1,000) LHS: Z-score, RHS: USc/lb
100 3.0 600
2.0 500
1.0 400
50 0.0 300
-1.0 200
0 -2.0 100

-50 z-score (Long) z-score (Short)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Max threshold Min threshold
Price (RHS)
*JPM estimate (as of 20 Sep)
5-yr avg
2023

Source: CFTC, CMX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, *Forecasts Source: CMX, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Commodities Research
supplied by JP Morgan GQDS Research, see methodology here

27

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
Commodity Market Positioning &
J.P. Morgan Securities plc Flows
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245 24 September 2024
[email protected] [email protected]

NYM Platinum

Contracts (futures and options)

PMPU Swap Dealers Managed Money Other Reportables Non-Reportables
17-Sep-24 10-Sep-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 10-Sep-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 10-Sep-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 10-Sep-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 10-Sep-24 Wkly Chg
NYM PLATINUM

Long 5,893 6,299 -406 12,499 15,353 -2,854 26,891 27,201 -310 15,202 16,984 -1,782 9,415 10,714 -1,299
Short 34,798 29,809 4,989 10,363 7,354 3,009 16,326 32,094 -15,768 4,128 3,163 965 4,284 4,130 154

Net Position -28,905 -23,510 -5,395 2,136 7,999 -5,863 10,565 -4,893 15,458 11,074 13,821 -2,747 5,131 6,584 -1,453
Spreading 8,994 4,946 4,048 9,394 8,460 934 4,126 4,832 -706

Source: CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research. Note: contracts are shown as reported by the CFTC—each reported spreading contract actually represents two positions (a long and a short), an
important fact for accurately calculating actual open interest.

Figure 92: Weekly change in open interest by trading Figure 93: Gross PMPU position and price
group LHS: lots (1,000), RHS: USD/t oz.
US$ million (futures and options)
$900 689 20 1,360
$600 424 10 1,160
$300 58 64 0 960
$0 -10
-3 760
-$300 -99 -20
-168 560
-325 -30
-$600 -40 360
Short

Short

Short
Long

Spread

Long

Spread

Long

Spread

-50 160
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money PMPU gross short PMPU gross length
NYM Platinum (RHS)

Source: CFTC, NYMEX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, NYMEX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 94: Weekly change in OI from changes in Figure 95: Open interest share by trader type
contracts & price %
US$ million (futures and options)
$800 60%
733
376

$400
12
48

50%
52
16

72
33

$0 40%
-14
-28
-19

-$400
-140
-93

-133

-44
-232

-$800 30%
20%
Short

Short

Short
Spread

Spread

Spread
Long

Long

Long

10%
0%
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Change due to positions Change due to price Managed Money Producer/Mer/Proc/EndUser
Other Reportables Swap Dealers

Source: CFTC, NYMEX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, NYMEX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 96: Seasonal Managed Money net length Figure 97: Price momentum
Lots (1,000) LHS: Z-score, RHS: USD/t oz.
60 4.0 1,500
2.0 1,300
1,100
30 0.0
900
-2.0 700
0 -4.0 500

-30 z-score (Long) z-score (Short)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Max threshold Min threshold
*JPM estimate (as of 20 Sep) Price (RHS)
5-yr avg
2023
2024

Source: CFTC, NYMEX, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, *Forecasts Source: NYMEX, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Commodities
supplied by JP Morgan GQDS Research, see methodology here Research

28

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
J.P. Morgan Securities plc 24 September 2024
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245
[email protected] [email protected]

CBOT Corn

Contracts (futures and options)

PMPU Swap Dealers Managed Money Other Reportables Non-Reportables
17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg
CBT CORN

Long 411,698 453,322 -41,624 231,147 228,733 2,414 200,006 181,520 18,486 116,904 123,908 -7,004 173,933 180,584 -6,651
Short 487,338 471,178 16,160 14,040 9,748 4,292 376,217 423,428 -47,211 36,079 31,703 4,376 220,014 232,009 -11,995

Net Position -75,640 -17,856 -57,784 217,107 218,985 -1,878 -176,211 -241,908 65,697 80,825 92,205 -11,380 -46,081 -51,425 5,344
Spreading 57,107 56,676 431 249,441 243,718 5,723 262,463 308,665 -46,202

Source: CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research. Note: contracts are shown as reported by the CFTC—each reported spreading contract actually represents two positions (a long and a short), an
important fact for accurately calculating actual open interest.

Figure 98: Weekly change in open interest by trading Figure 99: Gross PMPU position and price
group LHS: lots (1,000), RHS: USc/bu
US$ million (futures and options)
$2,000 1,823 1,000 1000
$1,500
$1,000 562 500
366
$500 72 0
67
$0 500
-$500 -321 -33 -500
-190
-$1,000 -1,000
Short

Short

Short
Spread

Spread

Spread
Long

Long

Long

-1,500 0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money PMPU gross short PMPU gross length
CBOT Corn (RHS)

Source: CFTC, CBOT, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, CBOT, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 100: Weekly change in OI from changes in Figure 101: Open interest share by trader type
contracts & price %
US$ million (futures and options)
$2,000 50%
1,527

40%
486

$1,000
121

108
219

296
75

$0 30%
147

-11
-41

20%
-49
-273

-25

-179
-8
-49

-$1,000
10%
Short

Short

Short
Spread

Spread

Spread
Long

Long

Long

0%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money
Managed Money Producer/Mer/Proc/EndUser
Change due to positions Change due to price
Other Reportables Swap Dealers

Source: CFTC, CBOT, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, CBOT, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 102: Seasonal Managed Money net length Figure 103: Price momentum
Lots (1,000) LHS: Z-score, RHS: USc/bu
450 4.0 1,000
2.0 800
300
0.0 600
150 -2.0 400
0 -4.0 200
-150
-300 z-score (Long) z-score (Short)
-450 Max threshold Min threshold
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Price (RHS)
5-yr avg
2023
2024
*JPM estimate (as of 20 Sep)

Source: CFTC, CBOT, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, *Forecasts Source: CBOT, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Commodities Research
supplied by JP Morgan GQDS Research, see methodology here

29

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
Commodity Market Positioning &
J.P. Morgan Securities plc Flows
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245 24 September 2024
[email protected] [email protected]

CBOT Soybeans

Contracts (futures and options)

PMPU Swap Dealers Managed Money Other Reportables Non-Reportables
17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg
CBT SOYBEANS

Long 409,423 392,022 17,401 124,586 122,458 2,128 47,750 48,342 -592 49,118 47,697 1,421 46,129 60,648 -14,519
Short 347,391 315,915 31,476 7,565 5,259 2,306 201,846 224,893 -23,047 43,890 44,549 -659 76,315 80,552 -4,237

Net Position 62,032 76,107 -14,075 117,021 117,199 -178 -154,096 -176,551 22,455 5,228 3,148 2,080 -30,186 -19,904 -10,282
Spreading 55,236 53,996 1,240 128,960 125,148 3,812 195,445 194,333 1,112

Source: CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research. Note: contracts are shown as reported by the CFTC—each reported spreading contract actually represents two positions (a long and a short), an
important fact for accurately calculating actual open interest.

Figure 104: Weekly change in open interest by trading Figure 105: Gross PMPU position and price
group LHS: lots (1,000), RHS: USc/bu
US$ million (futures and options)
$1,500 400 2,000
867
247 200
$500 113 176
0
-39
-$500 -89 -313 -217 -200 1,000
-400
-$1,500
-600
Short

Short

Short
Spread

Spread

Spread
Long

Long

Long

-800 0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money PMPU gross short PMPU gross length
CBOT Soybean (RHS)

Source: CFTC, CBOT, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, CBOT, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 106: Weekly change in OI from changes in Figure 107: Open interest share by trader type
contracts & price %
US$ million (futures and options)
$1,000 50%
904
225
127

182
46

$500 40%
21
1

$0
-15

-6

30%
-38

-14
-40
-51

-$500
-202
Short -359

-37

-$1,000 20%
Short

Short
Long

Spread

Long

Spread

Long

Spread

10%
0%
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Change due to positions Change due to price Managed Money Producer/Mer/Proc/EndUser
Other Reportables Swap Dealers

Source: CFTC, CBOT, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, CBOT, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 108: Seasonal Managed Money net length Figure 109: Price momentum
Lots (1,000) LHS: Z-score, RHS: USc/bu
250 4.0 1,900
150 2.0 1,500
0.0
50 1,100
-2.0
-50
-4.0 700
-150
-250
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec z-score (Long) z-score (Short)
*JPM estimate (as of 20 Sep) Max threshold Min threshold
Price (RHS)
5-yr avg
2023
2024

Source: CFTC, CBOT, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, *Forecasts Source: CBOT, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Commodities Research
supplied by JP Morgan GQDS Research, see methodology here

30

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
J.P. Morgan Securities plc 24 September 2024
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245
[email protected] [email protected]

CBOT Wheat

Contracts (futures and options)

PMPU Swap Dealers Managed Money Other Reportables Non-Reportables
17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg
CBT WHEAT

Long 66,039 72,254 -6,215 64,373 63,437 936 90,579 90,860 -281 34,587 39,632 -5,045 33,329 35,662 -2,333
Short 88,364 89,836 -1,472 2,843 3,098 -255 133,203 147,062 -13,859 26,620 23,979 2,641 37,877 37,871 6

Net Position -22,325 -17,582 -4,743 61,530 60,339 1,191 -42,624 -56,202 13,578 7,967 15,653 -7,686 -4,548 -2,209 -2,339
Spreading 21,320 19,119 2,201 75,846 74,999 847 52,786 49,599 3,187

Source: CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research. Note: contracts are shown as reported by the CFTC—each reported spreading contract actually represents two positions (a long and a short), an
important fact for accurately calculating actual open interest.

Figure 110: Weekly change in open interest by trading Figure 111: Gross PMPU position and price
group LHS: lots (1,000), RHS: USc/bu
US$ million (futures and options)
$300 200
134 1200
$100 59 91 100
900
-$100 -4 -27 0
-36 -47
-117 600
-$300 -100
Short

Short

Short
Long

Spread

Long

Spread

Long

Spread

-200 300
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money PMPU gross short PMPU gross length
CBOT Wheat (RHS)

Source: CFTC, CBOT, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, CBOT, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 112: Weekly change in OI from changes in Figure 113: Open interest share by trader type
contracts & price %
US$ million (futures and options)
$800 50%
196

$400
82
66

47

40%
38

25
33

21
19

$0
30%
-3

-$400
-129
-55

-74
-150

-1

-62

-$800 20%
Short

Short

Short
Long

Spread

Long

Spread

Long

Spread

10%
0%
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Change due to positions Change due to price Managed Money Producer/Mer/Proc/EndUser
Other Reportables Swap Dealers

Source: CFTC, CBOT, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, CBOT, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 114: Seasonal Managed Money net length Figure 115: Price momentum
Lots (1,000) LHS: Z-score, RHS: USc/bu
90 7.0 1,600
5.0
40 3.0 1,200
-10 1.0 800
-1.0
-60 -3.0 400
-110
-160
z-score (Long) z-score (Short)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Max threshold Min threshold
*JPM estimate (as of 20 Sep) Price (RHS)
5-yr avg
2023
2024

Source: CFTC, CBOT, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, *Forecasts Source: CBOT, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Commodities Research
supplied by JP Morgan GQDS Research, see methodology here

31

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
Commodity Market Positioning &
J.P. Morgan Securities plc Flows
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245 24 September 2024
[email protected] [email protected]

ICE Sugar No. 11

Contracts (futures and options)

PMPU Swap Dealers Managed Money Other Reportables Non-Reportables
17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg
ICE SUGAR NO. 11

Long 354,730 354,860 -130 102,450 102,178 272 118,654 117,728 926 49,276 49,569 -293 70,065 66,956 3,109
Short 422,181 398,797 23,384 100,207 94,679 5,528 74,653 102,353 -27,700 35,172 34,505 667 62,961 60,959 2,002

Net Position -67,451 -43,937 -23,514 2,243 7,499 -5,256 44,001 15,375 28,626 14,104 15,064 -960 7,104 5,997 1,107
Spreading 75,146 73,661 1,485 126,005 130,064 -4,059 109,012 107,159 1,853

Source: CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research. Note: contracts are shown as reported by the CFTC—each reported spreading contract actually represents two positions (a long and a short), an
important fact for accurately calculating actual open interest.

Figure 116: Weekly change in open interest by trading Figure 117: Gross PMPU position and price
group LHS: lots (1,000), RHS: USc/lb
US$ million (futures and options)
$1,000 600 30
367
$500 143 277 282 400
98 200 25
$0
0 20
-$500 -200
-$1,000 -553 -791 15
-400
-$1,500 -1,125 -600 10
-800
Short

Short

Short
Spread

Spread

Spread
Long

Long

Long

-1,000 5
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money PMPU gross short PMPU gross length
ICE #11 Sugar (RHS)

Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 118: Weekly change in OI from changes in Figure 119: Open interest share by trader type
contracts & price %
US$ million (futures and options)
$1,200 60%
110

390
217

242
33

30
87

300

$600
34

58

50%
$0
-$600 40%
-1,211

-119

-18
-23
Spread -582

-$1,200 30%
-849

-$1,800
20%
Short

Short

Short
Spread

Spread
Long

Long

Long

10%
0%
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Change due to positions Change due to price Managed Money Producer/Mer/Proc/EndUser
Other Reportables Swap Dealers

Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 120: Seasonal Managed Money net length Figure 121: Price momentum
Lots (1,000) LHS: Z-score, RHS: USc/lb
300 6.0 28
4.0 24
200 2.0 20
0.0 16
100 -2.0 12
-4.0 8
0

-100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec z-score (Long) z-score (Short)
*JPM estimate (as of 20 Sep) Max threshold Min threshold
5-yr avg Price (RHS)
2023
2024

Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, *Forecasts supplied Source: ICE, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Commodities Research
by JP Morgan GQDS Research, see methodology here

32

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
J.P. Morgan Securities plc 24 September 2024
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245
[email protected] [email protected]

ICE Cotton No. 2

Contracts (futures and options)

PMPU Swap Dealers Managed Money Other Reportables Non-Reportables
17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg
ICE COTTON NO. 2

Long 65,050 62,051 2,999 51,080 49,107 1,973 28,692 30,012 -1,320 23,940 25,804 -1,864 15,025 14,494 531
Short 71,839 68,056 3,783 9,320 8,795 525 71,357 75,320 -3,963 15,693 14,388 1,305 15,577 14,908 669

Net Position -6,789 -6,005 -784 41,760 40,312 1,448 -42,665 -45,308 2,643 8,247 11,416 -3,169 -552 -414 -138
Spreading 11,838 13,565 -1,727 37,747 36,040 1,707 35,413 33,584 1,829

Source: CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research. Note: contracts are shown as reported by the CFTC—each reported spreading contract actually represents two positions (a long and a short), an
important fact for accurately calculating actual open interest.

Figure 122: Weekly change in open interest by trading Figure 123: Gross PMPU position and price
group LHS: lots (1,000), RHS: USc/lb
US$ million (futures and options)
$700 467 100 240
$500
$300 154 131
59 0
$100
-$100 -9
-$300 -96 -129 -100 140
-$500
-$700 -553 -200
Short

Short

Short
Spread

Spread

Spread
Long

Long

Long

-300 40
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money PMPU gross short PMPU gross length
ICE #2 Cotton (RHS)

Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 124: Weekly change in OI from changes in Figure 125: Open interest share by trader type
contracts & price %
US$ million (futures and options)
$600 50%
125

524

$300
59

23

73
59
29
47

40%
35

$0
30%
-57

-$300
-77

-55

-11
-119
Long -155

-476

-$600 20%
Short

Short

Short
Spread

Spread
Spread

Long

Long

10%
0%
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Change due to positions Change due to price Managed Money Producer/Mer/Proc/EndUser
Other Reportables Swap Dealers

Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 126: Seasonal Managed Money net length Figure 127: Price momentum
Lots (1,000) LHS: Z-score, RHS: USc/lb
120 3.0 160
1.0 120
60
-1.0 80

0 -3.0 40

-60 z-score (Long) z-score (Short)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Max threshold Min threshold
*JPM estimate (as of 20 Sep) Price (RHS)
5-yr avg
2023
2024

Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, *Forecasts supplied Source: ICE, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Commodities Research
by JP Morgan GQDS Research, see methodology here

33

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
Commodity Market Positioning &
J.P. Morgan Securities plc Flows
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245 24 September 2024
[email protected] [email protected]

ICE Coffee C

Contracts (futures and options)

PMPU Swap Dealers Managed Money Other Reportables Non-Reportables
17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg
ICE COFFEE 'C'

Long 49,080 48,968 112 29,765 28,530 1,235 67,599 68,652 -1,053 12,397 13,164 -767 8,400 8,870 -470
Short 95,415 99,506 -4,091 49,544 48,685 859 11,399 9,644 1,755 5,337 5,058 279 5,545 5,292 253

Net Position -46,335 -50,538 4,203 -19,779 -20,155 376 56,200 59,008 -2,808 7,060 8,106 -1,046 2,855 3,578 -723
Spreading 8,046 7,771 275 27,505 26,500 1,005 36,897 34,923 1,974

Source: CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research. Note: contracts are shown as reported by the CFTC—each reported spreading contract actually represents two positions (a long and a short), an
important fact for accurately calculating actual open interest.

Figure 128: Weekly change in open interest by trading Figure 129: Gross PMPU position and price
group LHS: lots (1,000), RHS: USc/lb
US$ million (futures and options)
$1,000 625 200 290
507 748
$500 155 311 86
100 240
$0
190
-$500 -347 0
140
-$1,000
-100 90
-$1,500 -1,112
-200 40
Short

Short

Short
Long

Spread

Long

Spread

Long

Spread

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money PMPU gross short PMPU gross length
ICE Coffee (RHS)

Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 130: Weekly change in OI from changes in Figure 131: Open interest share by trader type
contracts & price %
US$ million (futures and options)
$1,000 50%
317
309

250
235

128
227

498
127
272

$500
85

40%
28

$0
-42

30%
-666

-$500
Short -124
-223
-446

-$1,000 20%
Short

Short
Spread

Spread

Spread
Long

Long

Long

10%
0%
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Change due to positions Change due to price Managed Money Producer/Mer/Proc/EndUser
Other Reportables Swap Dealers

Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 132: Seasonal Managed Money net Figure 133: Price momentum
Lots (1,000) LHS: Z-score, RHS: USc/lb
80 5.0 280
60 3.0 230
40 1.0 180
20 -1.0 130
0 -3.0 80
-20
-40
-60 z-score (Long) z-score (Short)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Max threshold Min threshold
Price (RHS)
*JPM estimate (as of 20 Sep)
5-yr avg
2023
2024

Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, *Forecasts supplied Source: ICE, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Commodities Research
by JP Morgan GQDS Research, see methodology here

34

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
J.P. Morgan Securities plc 24 September 2024
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245
[email protected] [email protected]

ICE Cocoa

Contracts (futures and options)

PMPU Swap Dealers Managed Money Other Reportables Non-Reportables
17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg
ICE COCOA

Long 46,275 45,470 805 7,541 7,381 160 40,536 41,032 -496 3,888 5,343 -1,455 11,524 11,833 -309
Short 73,840 71,557 2,283 10,730 11,655 -925 13,435 12,989 446 6,556 10,104 -3,548 5,203 4,754 449

Net Position -27,565 -26,087 -1,478 -3,189 -4,274 1,085 27,101 28,043 -942 -2,668 -4,761 2,093 6,321 7,079 -758
Spreading 9,161 10,359 -1,198 28,740 29,555 -815 39,799 42,397 -2,598

Source: CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research. Note: contracts are shown as reported by the CFTC—each reported spreading contract actually represents two positions (a long and a short), an
important fact for accurately calculating actual open interest.

Figure 134: Weekly change in open interest by trading Figure 135: Gross PMPU position and price
group LHS: lots (1,000), RHS: USd/MT
US$ million (futures and options)
$200 $300 170 200 11,500
75 78 170
$100 16 75 78 100
16 9,000
$0 -$100 -22 0
-39 6,500
-22 -68 -100
-$300 -39 -68
-200 4,000
-$200 -$500 -319
-300 1,500
Short

Short

Short
Spread

Spread

Spread
Long

Long

Long
Short

Short

Short
Spread

Spread

Spread
Long
Long

Long

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

PMPU gross short PMPU gross length
PMPU PMPU Swap Dealer
Swap DealerManaged Money Money
Managed ICE Cocoa (RHS)

Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 136: Weekly change in OI from changes in Figure 137: Open interest share by trader type
contracts & price %
US$ million (futures and options)
$1,200 60%
154

125
237

120

50%
194

$600
42

45
43
35
370

$0 40%
-176

-$600 30%
-44

-82

Spread -262
-221
-689

-$1,200 20%
Short

Short

Short
Spread
Spread
Long

Long

Long

10%
0%
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Managed Money Producer/Mer/Proc/EndUser
Change due to positions Change due to price Other Reportables Swap Dealers

Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 138: Seasonal Managed Money net length Figure 139: Price momentum
Lots (1,000) LHS: Z-score, RHS: USd/MT
90 8.0 13,000
4.0 10,000
60
0.0 7,000
30 -4.0 4,000
0 -8.0 1,000

-30
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
z-score (Short) Max threshold
*JPM estimate (as of 20 Sep)
5-yr avg Min threshold Price (RHS)
2023
2024

Source: CFTC, ICE, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, *Forecasts supplied Source: ICE, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Commodities Research
by JP Morgan GQDS Research, see methodology here

35

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
Commodity Market Positioning &
J.P. Morgan Securities plc Flows
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245 24 September 2024
[email protected] [email protected]

CME Live Cattle

Contracts (futures and options)

PMPU Swap Dealers Managed Money Other Reportables Non-Reportables
17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 27-Aug-24 Wkly Chg
CME LIVE CATTLE

Long 62,354 60,451 1,903 63,941 63,126 815 63,141 61,599 1,542 32,695 35,885 -3,190 32,102 32,399 -297
Short 163,467 163,241 226 2,055 2,049 6 25,083 23,585 1,498 12,079 12,522 -443 51,549 52,063 -514

Net Position -101,113 -102,790 1,677 61,886 61,077 809 38,058 38,014 44 20,616 23,363 -2,747 -19,447 -19,664 217
Spreading 5,685 4,727 958 55,825 53,556 2,269 89,036 83,775 5,261

Source: CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research. Note: contracts are shown as reported by the CFTC—each reported spreading contract actually represents two positions (a long and a short), an
important fact for accurately calculating actual open interest.

Figure 140: Weekly change in open interest by trading Figure 141: Gross PMPU position and price
group LHS: lots (1,000), RHS: USc/lb
US$ million (futures and options)
$600 498 200 200
$400 306
208 100 180
$200 44 2
$0 2 160
-16 0
-$200 140
-$400 -100 120
-$600 -368
-200 100
Short

Short

Short
Spread

Spread

Spread
Long

Long
Long

-300 80
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money PMPU gross short PMPU gross length
CME Live Cattle (RHS)

Source: CFTC, CME, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, CME, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 142: Weekly change in OI from changes in Figure 143: Open interest share by trader type
contracts & price %
US$ million (futures and options)
$1,000 40%
302
546

173

$500
19

19
17

25

34
2

30%
4

$0
-17

-8
-47

-8

-$500
-1

20%
-385

-$1,000
Short

Short

Short
Spread

Spread

Spread
Long

Long

Long

10%
0%
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Change due to positions Change due to price Managed Money Producer/Mer/Proc/EndUser
Other Reportables Swap Dealers

Source: CFTC, CME, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, CME, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 144: Seasonal Managed Money net length

Lots (1,000)
150
120
90
60
30
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

*JPM estimate (as of 20 Sep)

5-yr avg
2023
2024

Source: CFTC, CME, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, *Forecasts

supplied by JP Morgan GQDS Research, see methodology here

36

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
J.P. Morgan Securities plc 24 September 2024
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245
[email protected] [email protected]

CME Lean Hogs

Contracts (futures and options)

PMPU Swap Dealers Managed Money Other Reportables Non-Reportables
17-Sep-24 10-Sep-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 10-Sep-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 10-Sep-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 10-Sep-24 Wkly Chg 17-Sep-24 10-Sep-24 Wkly Chg
CME LEAN HOGS

Long 29,996 32,963 -2,967 64,119 65,165 -1,046 65,545 65,870 -325 24,485 24,634 -149 22,854 20,038 2,816
Short 124,883 124,696 187 6,655 5,845 810 25,830 28,158 -2,328 16,605 19,023 -2,418 33,027 30,949 2,078

Net Position -94,887 -91,733 -3,154 57,464 59,320 -1,856 39,715 37,712 2,003 7,880 5,611 2,269 -10,173 -10,911 738
Spreading 17,733 12,407 5,326 40,773 35,972 4,801 99,248 98,581 667

Source: CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research. Note: contracts are shown as reported by the CFTC—each reported spreading contract actually represents two positions (a long and a short), an
important fact for accurately calculating actual open interest.

Figure 145: Weekly change in open interest by trading Figure 146: Gross PMPU position and price
group LHS: lots (1,000), RHS: USc/lb
US$ million (futures and options)
$400 339 100 160
304
$200 75 120
$0 0
-3 -35 -26 -12 80
-$200 -96 -100
-$400 40
Short

Short

Short
Long

Spread

Spread
Long

Long

Spread

-200 0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money PMPU gross short PMPU gross length
CME Lean Hogs (RHS)

Source: CFTC, CME, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, CME, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 147: Weekly change in OI from changes in Figure 148: Open interest share by trader type
contracts & price %
US$ million (futures and options)
$400 40%
340
0.2

307
74
1

$100 30%
4

-2
-1

-$200
-1

-2
-95

-33

-10
-26
-2
-80

20%
-$500
10%
Short

Short

Short
Spread

Spread

Spread
Long

Long

Long

0%
PMPU Swap Dealer Managed Money 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Change due to positions Change due to price Managed Money Producer/Mer/Proc/EndUser
Other Reportables Swap Dealers

Source: CFTC, CME, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: CFTC, CME, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Figure 149: Seasonal Managed Money net length

Lots (1,000)
120
90
60
30
0
-30
-60
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
*JPM estimate (as of 20 Sep)
5-yr avg
2023
2024

Source: CFTC, CME, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, *Forecasts

supplied by JP Morgan GQDS Research, see methodology here

37

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.
 Tracey Allen AC (44-20) 7134-6732 Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 Global Commodities Research
[email protected] [email protected]
JPMORGAN
Commodity Market Positioning &
J.P. Morgan Securities plc Flows
Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 Shikha Chaturvedi (1-212) 834-3245 24 September 2024
[email protected] [email protected]

Disclosures

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J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of July 06, 2024

Overweight Neutral Underweight
(buy) (hold) (sell)
J.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage* 49% 38% 13%
IB clients** 49% 46% 34%
JPMS Equity Research Coverage* 48% 41% 11%
IB clients** 69% 66% 50%

*Please note that the percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding.
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investment banking services within the previous 12 months.
For purposes of FINRA ratings distribution rules only, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category; our Neutral rating falls
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38

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited.