MIS171 – Business Analytics – Trimester 2 2024

Assessment Task 3 – Individual

DUE DATE: Monday, 30 September 2024, by 8:00pm (Melbourne time)

PERCENTAGE OF FINAL GRADE: 40%
SUBMISSION: You will submit to unit site:
- one Excel file, with your analysis, and
- one Word file, with your written report

Description
The assignment requires that you analyse a data set, interpret, and draw conclusions from your
analysis, and then convey your conclusions in a written report. The assignment must be completed
individually and must be submitted electronically in CloudDeakin by the due date. When submitting
electronically, you must check that you have submitted the work correctly by following the
instructions provided in CloudDeakin. Hard copies or assignments submitted via email will NOT be
accepted.

The assignment uses the file 2024 T2 MIS171 Assignment 3 Data.xlsx which can be downloaded from
CloudDeakin. The assignment focuses on materials presented up to and including Week 11. The Excel
file which has been provided has different worksheets explaining and containing the
ePowerDynamics dataset. For confidentiality reasons actual data has not been used in the
assessment task. Following is an introduction to this scenario and detailed guidelines.

Context/Scenario: ePowerDynamics Demand Analysis

ePowerDynamics is an established bike sharing company based in Australia that provides bike trails
that are suitable for riders of all levels. Since 2020, travellers and tourists from around the globe have
been able to experience unforgettable bike tours and rentals in Melbourne, Australia with
ePowerDynamics. One of the main objectives of this company has been to offer its riders a hassle-
free and memorable experience.

Across the globe, public bike sharing is becoming an increasingly common form of transportation.
Considering the high demand for this service, it is necessary to make the rental bike available and
accessible at the appropriate time, thereby reducing wait times. Therefore, maintaining a stable
supply of rental bikes in the city becomes one of the most challenging tasks. The ability to predict the
bike counts in different climates and weather conditions is one of the most important aspects of
ensuring a stable supply of bike rental services.

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ePowerDynamics needs to model the demand for shared bikes based on the independent variables
that are available. By analysing this data, the management will gain a deeper understanding of how
exactly the demands vary according to different features. It is possible for them to adapt their
business strategy accordingly in order to meet the demand levels and to meet the expectations of
their customers. The model will also provide management with an insight into the dynamics of a new
market's demand.

This assignment is designed to engage your critical thinking, problem-solving, and analytical skills
through the use of predictive analytics on the given dataset. The objective is to conduct a multiple
linear regression analysis to explore the factors that potentially contribute to maximising Bike Hire
demand (BikeHired). Building upon Assignment 1's interactive dashboard/data visualisation and
Assignment 2’s descriptive analytics, your challenge is to explore the dataset to uncover meaningful
insights and patterns that illustrate the progress made and challenges faced in enhancing Bike Hire
demand.

A question, accompanied by guidelines highlighted in blue, are presented below. You are required
to submit your Excel file containing your data analysis, along with a report that explains the
outcomes of your analysis and two recommendations. Given that your audience may not have
training in business analytics, your report must present the results in plain, straightforward
language. A template has been provided for your use.

Multiple Linear Regression Modelling (consider α = 5%)

Bike Hire demand is an important measure for ePowerDynamics, as it represents a major element of
the company’s marketing strategy. Build a multiple regression model to predict demand for Bike
Hire. Your model should provide insights into which factors have a significant influence on bike hire
demand, as well as the ability to predict Bike Hire demand for various scenarios.

For this analysis, you will need to build a multiple regression model using BikeHired as the dependent
variable. All other variables in the ePowerDynamics dataset should be included in the model, except
ID, Date, Weekday, eBike and pBike (i.e., exclude ID, Date, Weekday, eBike and pBike from your
regression model).

Follow the model building process introduced in the lecture and seminars.
Carefully consider the following:

(a) Transform categorical variables into suitable dummy variables

(i.e., Season, Holiday, WorkingDay, Weather and HireDay).

Copy the ePowerDynamics Dataset to the “Correlation” spreadsheet in the Excel file that
has been provided (no earlier than Column AI - be careful not to overwrite the Conclusion,
Correlation Table and Scatter Diagram frames).

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 i. When transforming Season into dummy variables, consider Summer as the baseline
category; meaning the created dummy variables for Season should only include
Autumn (Yes and No), Spring (Yes and No), and Winter (Yes and No).

ii. When transforming Holiday into dummy variables, consider Not Holiday as the
baseline category.

iii. When transforming Workingday into dummy variables, consider Not Workingday as
the baseline category.

iv. When transforming Weather into dummy variables, consider Clear as the baseline
category.

v. When transforming HireDay into dummy variables, consider Good as the baseline
category.

Complete the Dummy Variables Summary table which is in the Conclusion section of the
Correlation worksheet. The table summarises the results of your transformation of
categorical variables into dummy variables.

(b) Using the ePowerDynamics dataset (which now includes transformed dummy variables) as
your reference, complete the following steps:

i. Correlation – in the section marked “Correlation Table” (below the Conclusion section
on the “Correlation” worksheet) generate a correlation table. Use the “Correlation”
option in Excel’s Data Analysis ToolPak.

ii. On the correlation table, identify and clearly indicate the Independent Variables which
are (virtually) uncorrelated with the Dependent Variable (i.e., all IVs which have a
correlation coefficient with the DV of between -0.050 and 0.050). These IVs are to be
removed from the model prior to running the first iteration of the regression model.
iii. Complete the Uncorrelated Independent Variables summary table which is in the
Conclusion section of the Correlation worksheet. This table summarises which
Independent Variables are to be eliminated from the regression model due to being
(virtually) uncorrelated with BikeHired (DV).

iv. Multi-collinearity - review the correlation table for instances of multi-collinearity

between Independent Variables (IV). In cases of multicollinearity (please consider
correlation between IVs greater than 0.6 or less than -0.6), identify and clearly
indicate the IVs with the weakest correlation with the Dependent Variable.
These IVs are to be removed from the model prior to running the first iteration of the
regression model.

v. Complete the Multi-Collinearity summary table which is in the Conclusion section of

the Correlation worksheet. This table summarises which Independent Variables are to
be eliminated from the regression model due to multi-collinearity.

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 vi. Scatter diagrams - in the section marked “Scatter Diagrams” (below the Correlation
Table section on the “Correlation” worksheet) generate three scatter diagrams, for:

• BikeHired (Dependent Variable, DV) and the numerical (not dummy categorical)
Independent Variable (IV) which has the highest correlation with the DV. Include a
calculation of the correlation coefficient. Format the diagram, and include a linear
trendline, and the coefficient of determination.

• BikeHired (DV) and the numerical (not dummy categorical) Independent Variable
(IV) which has the highest inverse (i.e., most negative) correlation with the DV.
Include a calculation of the correlation coefficient. Format the diagram, and include
a linear trendline, and the coefficient of determination.

• BikeHired (DV) and the numerical (not dummy categorical) Independent Variable
(IV) that is closest to being uncorrelated with the DV (i.e., correlation coefficient
closest to zero). Include a calculation of the correlation coefficient. Format the
diagram and include a linear trendline, and the coefficient of determination.

(c) On the “Regression Model” spreadsheet in the Excel file that has been provided (the data
set includes the dummy variables you have created and excludes the Independent
Variables which have been eliminated due to multi-collinearity or being uncorrelated with
the Dependent Variable), complete the following steps:

i. Using the “Regression” option in Excel’s Data Analysis ToolPak build a multiple
regression model.

• Assess the model for overall significance (F test with alpha set at 0.05, i.e.,
Confidence Level = 95%).

ii. If your first iteration of the overall model is found to be significant, in a step-wise
fashion, sequentially (one at a time) remove the Independent Variables that are least
likely to be contributing to any significant change in the Dependent Variable.

• You will need to conduct t-tests (i.e., check p values) with alpha set at 0.05 to
determine the significance of the various IVs you exclude and include in your model.

(d) Once you have created a regression model where all the remaining Independent Variables
are contributing significantly to a change in Bike Hired, copy the Summary Output of your
final multiple regression model and paste it into the Output section of the “Regression
Model” spreadsheet in the Excel file that has been provided,

i. In the Conclusion section of the “Regression Model” spreadsheet,

• Write the (final) multiple regression equation.

Use the format: Ŷ = ƅ0 + ƅ1X1 + ƅ2X2…

• Explain (interpret) the (final) multiple regression equation/model.

(e) Using the final multiple regression equation (from the previous step),

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 i. In the Predictions section of the “Regression Model” spreadsheet in the Excel file that
has been provided, for the scenario outlined below:

• Calculate a Point Estimate for Bike Hired (DV),

• Calculate a Prediction Interval for Bike Hired (DV),

• Calculate a Confidence Interval for Bike Hired (DV),

ii. In the Conclusion section of the “Regression Model” spreadsheet in the Excel file that
has been provided, for the scenario outlined below:

• Interpret the Point Estimate calculation

• Interpret the Prediction Interval calculation

• Interpret the Confidence Interval calculation

Independent
Scenario
Variables
Season Autumn
Holiday Holiday
Weekday Sunday
Workingday Not Workingday
Weather Cloudy
Temp 36 °C
Humidity 74%
WindSpeed 30 km/h
eBike 44
pBike 56
Hireday Good

Data description

The provided Excel file includes multiple sheets, labelled “Data Description”, “ePowerDynamics Data”
and several other worksheets for the above questions. The “Data Description” sheet describes all the
variables used in the “ePowerDynamics Data” and is copied below for your convenience.

Variable Description

ID Record index

Date Date of the bike hired

Seasons Season of the bike hired (Summer, Autumn, Winter, and Spring)

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 Holiday Whether day is holiday or not (Holiday, Not Holiday)

Weekday Day of week (Sunday to Saturday)

Workingday If day is either working day or not

Weather Weather of the day (Clear, Cloudy, Rain)

Temp Temperature of the day in Celsius

Humidity Humidity of the day in %

WindSpeed Wind speed of the day in km/h

eBike Number of electric bikes hired per day

pBike Number of pedal bikes hired per day

BikeHired Total bike hired including both eBikes and pBikes

Hire day is classified into four different categories based on total number of bikes
hired per day.
HireDay
Quiet (BikeHired<40), Modest (40<=BikeHired < 70), Good (70<=BikeHired < 100),
Busy (BikeHired >=100)

Assignment instructions

The assignment consists of two parts.

Part 1: Data Analysis

Your data analysis must be performed on the Assignment 3 Excel file. The file includes tabs
(spreadsheets) for:
• Data Description
• ePowerDynamics Demand Dataset
• Correlation, which includes:
o creating dummy variables,
o creating correlation table,
o eliminating uncorrelated independent variables (IVs), and
o eliminating IVs where multi-collinearity is present
• Regression Model – building the regression model, including multiple iterations, and
o reporting the summary output of the final regression model,
o identifying the final equation, and explaining/interpreting the final equation, and

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 o calculating and explaining the point estimate, prediction interval, and confidence
interval for the scenario provided.
When conducting the analysis, you need to apply techniques learnt in the lectures and seminars. The
analysis section you submit should be limited to the Correlation and Regression Model worksheets
of the Excel file. These are the only worksheets which will be marked. Your analysis should be clearly
labelled and grouped around each question. Poorly presented, unorganised analysis or excessive
output will be penalised.

In the Conclusion section of each worksheet there is space allocated for you to write a succinct
response to the questions. When drafting your Conclusion, make sure that you directly answer the
questions asked. State the important features of the analysis in your Output section. Responses in
the Conclusion section will be marked.

Use the Output section for your analysis to complete the analysis as directed and supports your
response to the questions (which you will write in the Conclusion section). Analysis in the Output
section will be marked, please make sure your analysis and process complete, clear, and easy to
follow. You may need to add (or widen/narrow) rows or columns to present your analysis clearly and
completely. Poorly presented, disorganised analysis or excessive output will be penalised. It is useful
to produce both numerical and graphical analysis. Sometimes something is revealed in one that is
not obvious in the other.

Use the Workings section for calculations and workings that support your analysis. The Workings
section will not be marked.

Part 2: Report

Having analysed the data, including answers (in technical terms) to the Data Analysis questions from
Part 1 you are required to provide a formal report. Given that your audience may not have training
in business analytics, your report must present the results in plain, straightforward language. The
audience will only be familiar with broad generally understood terms (e.g., average, correlation,
proportion, and probability). They will need you to explain more technical terms, such as quartile,
mode, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, correlation coefficient, and confidence interval,
etc.

In section 1 of the report, provide a brief interpretation of your findings of the Correlation and
Regression analyses. In section 2 of the report, Make TWO (2) recommendations that the
ePowerDynamics Board could consider maximising Bike Hire demand. Your recommendations

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should be based on analysis in this assignment, analysis from previous assignments, and any
additional relevant analysis that enhances the impact of your recommendations.

Consider the following in framing your recommendations:

• Specific actions ePowerDynamics could take to maximise Bike Hire demand based on the
outcomes of your regression model.

• Specific actions ePowerDynamics could take to maximise Bike Hire demand based on the
outcomes of your analysis from Assignment 1 and Assignment 2.

• Specific actions ePowerDynamics could take to maximise Bike Hire demand based on the
outcomes of any additional analysis you perform.

• Recommending targeting a group that ePowerDynamics could pursue that maximises Bike
Hire demand.

• The impact of other important measures such as Season, Holiday and Weather on Bike Hire
demand.

• Considering the impact on Bike Hire demand of the variables not specifically included in your
regression model.

• Recommending strategies for targeting specific Season or Weather conditions that could
significantly improve Bike Hire demand.

Ensure that all your recommendations are directly informed by your data analysis. Do not include
any commentary that is not supported by your data analysis.

Highest marks will be awarded to students who draft distinct (i.e., different) recommendations, and
whose recommendations take into account a broad range of (data-supported) considerations.

When exploring data, we often produce more results than we eventually use in the final report, but
by investigating the data from different angles, we can develop a much deeper understanding of the
data. This will be valuable when drafting your written report.

It is useful to produce both numerical and graphical statistical summaries. Sometimes something is
revealed in one that is not obvious in the other.

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You are allowed approximately 1,000 words (950 to 1,050 words) for your report. Remember you
should use font size 11 and leave margins of 2.54 cm.

A template is provided for your convenience. Carefully consider the following points:
• Your report is to be written as a stand-alone document.

• Keep the English simple and the explanations clear. Avoid the use of technical statistical
jargon. Your task is to convert your analysis into plain, simple, easy to understand language.

• Follow the format of the template when writing your report. Delete the report template
instructions (in purple) when drafting your report.

• Do not include any charts, graphs, or tables into your Report.

• Include a succinct introduction at the start of your report, and a conclusion that clearly
summarises your findings.

• Marks will be deducted for the inclusion of irrelevant material, poor presentation, poor
organisation, poor formatting, and reports that exceed the word limit.

When you have completed drafting your report, it is a useful exercise to leave it for a day, and then
return to it and re-read it as if you knew nothing about the analysis. Does it flow easily? Does it make
sense? Can someone without prior knowledge follow your written conclusions? Often when re-
reading, you become aware that you can edit the report to make it more direct and clearer.

Learning Outcomes
This task allows you to demonstrate your achievement towards the Unit Learning Outcomes (ULOs)
which have been aligned to the Deakin Graduate Learning Outcomes (GLOs). Deakin GLOs describe
the knowledge and capabilities graduates acquire and can demonstrate on completion of their
course. This assessment task is an important tool in determining your achievement of the ULOs. If
you do not demonstrate achievement of the ULOs you will not be successful in this unit. You are
advised to familiarise yourself with these ULOs and GLOs as they will inform you on what you are
expected to demonstrate for successful completion of this unit.

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The learning outcomes that are aligned to this assessment task are:

Unit Learning Outcomes (ULO) Graduate Learning Outcomes (GLO)

ULO1: Apply quantitative reasoning skills to GLO1: Discipline-specific knowledge and

analyse business problems. capabilities
ULO2: Create data-driven/fact-based solutions to GLO5: Problem solving
complex business scenarios.
ULO3: Analyse business performance by GLO3: Digital literacy
implementing contemporary data analysis tools.
ULO4: Interpret findings and effectively GLO2: Communication
communicate solutions to business problems

Submission
You must submit your assignment in the Assignment Dropbox in the unit CloudDeakin site on or
before the due date.

Your submission will comprise of two files:

1. A Microsoft Excel workbook file containing your Analysis (Part 1), on the relevant tabs, and

2. A Microsoft Word document containing your report (Part 2).

When uploading your assignment, your submission files should be named:

Word file: MIS171_T2_YOURStudentID.doc (or .docx), and

Excel file: MIS171_T2_YOURStudentID.xls (or .xlsx).

Submitting a hard copy of this assignment is not required. You must keep a backup copy of every
assignment you submit until the marked assignment has been returned to you. In the unlikely event
that one of your assignments is misplaced you will need to submit your backup copy.

Any work you submit may be checked by electronic or other means for the purposes of detecting
collusion and/or plagiarism and for authenticating work.

When you submit an assignment through your CloudDeakin unit site, you will receive an email to
your Deakin email address confirming that it has been submitted. You should check that you can see
your assignment in the Submissions view of the Assignment Dropbox folder after upload and check
for, and keep, the email receipt for the submission.

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Marking and feedback
The marking rubric indicates the assessment criteria for this task. It is available in the CloudDeakin
unit site in the Assessment folder, under Assessment Resources. Criteria act as a boundary around
the task and help specify what assessors are looking for in your submission. The criteria are drawn
from the ULOs and align with the GLOs. You should familiarise yourself with the assessment criteria
before completing and submitting this task.

Students who submit their work by the due date will receive their marks and feedback on
CloudDeakin 15 working days after the submission date.

Extensions
Extensions can only be granted for exceptional and/or unavoidable circumstances outside of your
control. Requests for extensions must be made by 12 noon on the submission date using the online
Extension Request form under the Assessment tab on the unit CloudDeakin site. All requests for
extensions should be supported by appropriate evidence (e.g., a medical certificate in the case of ill
health).

Applications for extensions after 12 noon on the submission date require University level special
consideration and these applications must be must be submitted via StudentConnect in your
DeakinSync site.

Late submission penalties

If you submit an assessment task after the due date without an approved extension or special
consideration, 5% will be deducted from the available marks for each day after the due date up to
seven days*. Work submitted more than seven days after the due date will not be marked and will
receive 0% for the task. The Unit Chair may refuse to accept a late submission where it is

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unreasonable or impracticable to assess the task after the due date. *'Day' means calendar day for
electronic submissions and working day for paper submissions.

An example of how the calculation of the late penalty based on an assignment being due on a Monday
at 8:00pm is as follows:

• 1 day late: submitted after Monday 11:59pm and before Tuesday 11:59pm– 5% penalty.
• 2 days late: submitted after Tuesday 11:59pm and before Wednesday 11:59pm – 10% penalty.
• 3 days late: submitted after Wednesday 11:59pm and before Thursday 11:59pm – 15% penalty.
• 4 days late: submitted after Thursday 11:59pm and before Friday 11:59pm – 20% penalty.
• 5 days late: submitted after Friday 11:59pm and before Saturday 11:59pm – 25% penalty.
• 6 days late: submitted after Saturday 11:59pm and before Sunday 11:59pm – 30% penalty.
• 7 days late: submitted after Sunday 11:59pm and before Monday 11:59pm – 35% penalty.

The Dropbox closes the Monday after 11:59pm AEST/AEDT time.

Support
The Division of Student Life provides a range of Study Support resources and services, available
throughout the academic year, including Writing Mentor and Maths Mentor online drop ins and the
SmartThinking 24 hour writing feedback service at this link. If you would prefer some more in depth
and tailored support, make an appointment online with a Language and Learning Adviser.

Referencing and Academic Integrity

Deakin takes academic integrity very seriously. It is important that you (and if a group task, your
group) complete your own work in every assessment task Any material used in this assignment that
is not your original work must be acknowledged as such and appropriately referenced. You can find
information about referencing (and avoiding breaching academic integrity) and other study support
resources at the following website: http://www.deakin.edu.au/students/study-support

Your rights and responsibilities as a student

As a student you have both rights and responsibilities. Please refer to the document Your rights and
responsibilities as a student in the Unit Guide & Information section in the Content area in the
CloudDeakin unit site.

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