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Demographic Transition

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Rafio Ahmed
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4 views

Demographic Transition

Uploaded by

Rafio Ahmed
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Demographic Transition Theory

• Demographic transition (DT) refers to the


transition from high birth and death rates to
low birth and death rates as a country
develops from a pre-industrial to an
industrialized economic system. This is
typically demonstrated through a
demographic transition model (DTM). The
theory is based on an interpretation of
demographic history developed in 1929 by the
American demographer Warren Thompson
Stage 1
• In pre-industrial society, death rates and birth
rates were both high and fluctuated rapidly
according to natural events, such as drought
and disease, to produce a relatively constant
and young population. Family planning and
contraception were virtually nonexistent;
therefore, birth rates were essentially only
limited by the ability of women to bear
children.
Stage 2
• This stage leads to a fall in death rates and an
increase in population. The changes leading to
this stage in Europe were initiated in the
Agricultural Revolution of the 18th century
and were initially quite slow
• The decline in the death rate is due initially to
two factors:
• First, improvements in the food supply
brought about by higher yields in agricultural
practices and better transportation prevent
death due to starvation and lack of water.
• Second, significant improvements in public
health reduce mortality, particularly in
childhood.
Stage 3
• Stage Three moves the population towards
stability through a decline in the birth rate.
Several factors contribute to this eventual
decline, although some of them remain
speculative:
• Increasing urbanization changes the
traditional values placed upon fertility and the
value of children in rural society
Stage 4
• This occurs where birth and death rates are
both low. Therefore the total population is low
and stable. There is a low death rate because
there are not a lot of diseases and famines
and there is enough to eat

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