SECONDARY SCHOOL INTERVENTION PROGRAMME:

TEACHER DEVELOPMENT

MATHEMATICS
GRADE 10 -12
Probability
Teacher Manual

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 PROBABILITY
Introduction

We use probability for uncertain events. When you accidentally drop a slice of bread, you
don’t know if it will fall with the buttered side facing upwards or downwards, will it be Heads
or Tails when the die is thrown or will it rain today?

Purpose

The purpose of this workshop is to deepen the understanding of the concepts of probability
in FET phase rather than to encounter new material and new concepts. This will be done
through discussions and solving probability problems.

Target

This workshop targets teachers who are teaching or intend to teach Mathematica at the FET
phase.

Assessment

At the beginning of the workshop teachers will be given a pre-test and at the end of the
training a post-test will be given. The pre-test and post-test are similar in terms of content
coverage, concepts and questioning techniques. The questions are of the same level of
difficult. Questions tackled in both tests will cover the content covered in the workshop.

Performance in the pre-test is an indicator of how much participants know in that particular
topic before training. The performance in the post-test indicates how much participants know
in the topic after the training. It can then be determined from these results whether there was
an improvement in performance or not. Any change in performance would be attributed to
the training.

Also teachers work through activities and present their solutions, you can assess their
understanding of probability concepts.

Approach
This is a hands-on workshop. Notes are given just to develop concepts but the content
knowledge will be developed through activities done and the two-way interaction from the
facilitator.
Notes are given to develop the initial application of the mathematical principles. The content
knowledge will be developed by applying the skills shared by the facilitator in a number of
similar type questions.

Duration

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This workshop will take 8 hours including the writing of pre-test and post-test.

GRADE 1O
PROBABILIT
Y
This material has been extracted from FET
Probability work researched and compiled by
Delia North of UKZN and Jackie Schreiber of
Wits University

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 FORMULATING PROBABILITY
CONCEPTS AND VENN DIAGRAMS
(1½ hours)

By the end of this session you should be able to,

a) Compare the relative frequency of an experimental outcome with the theoretical probability of the
outcome.

b) Venn diagrams as an aid to solving probability problems,

c) The identity for any two events: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

Probability is the chance that something will happen - how likely it is that some event will happen. Sometimes
you can measure a probability with a number like "10% chance of rain", or you can use words such as
impossible, unlikely, possible, even chance, likely and certain. Example: "It is unlikely to rain tomorrow".

RANDOM EXPERIMENT
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A random experiment has individual outcomes which are uncertain to occur at any particular
repeat of the experiment, but there is nonetheless a regular distribution of outcomes in a
large number of repeats of the experiment.

“Random” does not mean” haphazard” but rather relies on a” sort of order” that emerges
after a long run

Tossing of a coin is thus a random experiment, as is rolling a die, the drawing of a card from
a deck of cards, etc.

EXAMPLE

Suppose a fair coin is tossed. We know that on every toss, it either lands on heads (H) or
tails (T) – it is impossible to predict the next outcome with any certainty, even if we know the
previous few outcomes

Consider the following record of historical repeats of this random experiment ( tossing a
coin)

Name No. of coin tosses Fraction of times a H was

obtained
Count Buffon (1707 – 1785) 4040 2048
4040 = 0.5069
John Kerrich 10 000 5067 = 0,5067
10 000
Karl Petersen 24 000 12012 = 0,5005
24 000

NOTE:

- The fraction of times that H appeared got very close to 0,5 as the number of tosses of
the coin increased

SETS:

Experiment: An activity or the act of measuring something, e.g. throwing a coin twice

Outcomes: The results of an experiment, e.g. getting one head (H) and one tail (T) when
throwing a coin twice

Sample Space (S): The sample space S of a random experiment is the set of all possible
outcomes of the random experiment. (Outcomes have an even chance or are equally likely
chance of occurring)

Activity1: What is the sample space?

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1 If a die is rolled?

2 Of a coin being tossed?

3 If 2 dice are rolled and the

numbers are added up?
4 If a coin is flipped and a die
is rolled?

5 If 2 coins are flipped?

An Event

An event is a set of possible outcomes of a random experiment i.e. a subset of the sample
space which contains a collection of some of the possible outcomes of random experiment.

Activity 2:
Sample space (S) Event (E)
Roll of a Obtaining an even number
die
Flipping a Obtaining at least one head
coin when flipping two coins
Roll of a Obtaining a total of more than
die 9 when two dice are rolled

 Note that each of the above events is a subset of the corresponding sample space

 Any letter of the alphabet can be used to denote an event.

 The certain event is the whole sample space (S), while the impossible event is the empty
set, denoted by Ø OR { }

Example: Suppose a die is rolled, then the event of getting a number less than 7 is a
certain event, while getting a 7 is an impossible event.

 An event is said to occur if the random experiment is performed and one of the elements
listed under that event came up.

Example: Suppose a fair die is rolled. Let E denote even numbers and O denote odd
numbers. If a four came up then event E occurred but event O did not as 4 is an
element of E but not of O

And (Symbol: ∩) (NB symbols are not to be used, see NCS document)

“And” or intersection means the elements that are in A and as well as in B, we say then that
both events take place at the same time

Example:

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1. A fair die is rolled: Event A represents the die landing on an even number and
Event B represents the die landing on a number greater than 3

Sample space: S = …………………………….

Event A: A = …………………………….

Event B: B = …………………………….

Then A and B = …………………..

2. A sample set consists of natural numbers less than 13.

Event C consists of the factors of 6 and
Event D consists of the factors of 9

Sample space: S = …………………………….

Event C: C = ……………………………..

Event D: D = ………………………………

Then C and D = ………………………

Or (Symbol: U) (Symbols not to be used, see NCS document)

“Or” or union means the elements in set A or set B or in both. At least one event must take
place

Example:
1. A die is rolled.
Event A represents the die landing on an even number or
Event B represents a number greater than 3

Sample space: S = …………………………….

Event A: A = ……………………………..

Event B: B = ………………………………

Then A or B = ………………………

2. A sample set consists of natural numbers less than 13.

Event C consists of the factors of 6 or
Event D consists of the multiples of 3

Sample space: S = …………………………….

Event C: C = ……………………………..

Event D: D = ………………………………

Then C or D = ………………………
Not A (Symbol A/ or Ac)

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Not is the same as saying the complement of an event. All the elements that are not in
Event A. Event A does NOT take place

Example:

1. A die is rolled. Event A consists of even numbers

Sample space: S = …………………….

Event A: A = ……………………..

Then not in A = A/ = ………………..

2. A box contains 5 red smarties, 2 green smarties, 3 pink smarties and 4 blue smarties.
What would the complement be of?

a) A if A contains red and green smarties?

b) B if B contains blue and green smarties?

c) C if C contains green, red and blue smarties?

PROBABILITY AND RANDOM EXPERIMENT

A random experiment has various outcomes – the particular outcome will only be known
once an experiment has been preformed.

A probability has to be assigned to each individual outcome of a random experiment, or to

groupings of outcomes (called events), so that

- any probability must be a number between 0 and 1

-
An event with probability 0,5 would occur on about half of the trials if the experiment was
repeated many, many times, etc.

Probabilities of all possible outcomes of a random experiment add up to 1

A certain event has the probability of 1

Suppose a die is rolled, clearly S ={ 1,2,3,4,5,6}

P(1) + P(2) + P(3) + P(4) + P(5) + P(6) = 1 since {1,2,3,4,5,6} is a certain event, the
probabilities of the individual outcomes must add to 1. S (set of all possible outcomes) is a
certain event.

If A is any event, made up by grouping some of the outcomes of the random experiment,
and P(A) denotes the probability that event A occurs, then the following rules are satisfied:

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 Rule 1: 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1

Rule 2: P(S) = 1

Rule 3: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) for any event A and B where A and B can occur
simultaneously

RULE 2: Probabilities of all possible outcomes of a random experiment add to 1

Example
1. A fair die is rolled.
P(even) = P(2 or 4 or 6) = ½ P(odd) = P(1 or 3 or 5) = ½
Therefore the P(even) + P(odd) = ½ + ½ = 1

2. The probability of something happening + probability of it not happening = 1

Therefore the probability of something not happening = 1 – the probability of something
happens.

3. Toss a coin:
P(H) + P(T) = 1
Therefore P(H) = 1 – P(T) which leads to P(not A) = P(A/)= 1 – P(A)

Other useful notations:

n(A) = number of outcomes in Event A (number of ways A can take place)

n(S) = number of outcomes in the sample space (total number of possible outcomes)

n( A)
P
P(A) = the probability of event A happening (take place) n( S )

EXAMPLE:
1. Suppose a fair die is rolled.

S Define event E to be even

1 5 From this we can
E 1 clearly see that the
2 3 Outcomes can be complement of
written in any order. event E is P(E/) =
The rectangle 3
4 6 depicting the whole
2 1 – P(E)
sample space 6
4 5

2. Suppose a fair die is rolled and the following events are defined:

A = {2, 3, 4, 6} and Z = {2, 6}

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The corresponding Venn diagram is:

This diagram is useful to verify the following:

a) Sample space: S = ………………………………

b) A and Z = ……………………………………….

c) A or Z = ……………………………..

d) A/ = ……………………………………….

h) (A or Z) / = ………………………………………………..

3. A die is rolled. Event A are even numbers and event B are numbers greater than 3

a. List the following: Sample set = …………………………………..

Event A = …………………………………….

Event B = ………………………………………..

b. List the following: n(S) = …………………….

n(A) = ………………..

n(B) = ……………….

c. List the following: P(S) = ……………………………………………………………………

P(A) = ……………………………………………………………………

P(B) = …………………………………………………………………..
d. Draw a Venn-diagram for both events

e. Determine the following using the Venn- diagram

(i) P(A) =

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 (ii) P(B) =

(iii) P(A and B) =

(iv) P(A or B) =

(v) P(not A) =

ACTIVITY 1

A bag contains 6 blue marbles, 5 red marbles, 8 green marble and 9 white marbles.
What is the probability of?

a. Drawing a white marble? ………………………………………

b. Drawing a green marble? ………………………………………

c. Drawing a blue marble? …………………………………………

d. Drawing a red marble? ………………………………………….

e. Drawing a red or a blue marble? ………………………………….

f. Drawing a blue or a green marble? …………………………………..

g. Drawing a pink marble? ………………………………………………

h. Drawing a white, green or red marble? ……………………………….

i. Not drawing a blue marble? ……………………………………………….

ACTIVITY 2

A robot shows green for 2 minutes, amber for 30 seconds and red for 1 minute.
Calculate the probability that the next motorist arriving at the intersection finds the lights

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a. On red …………………………………………….

b. On green ……………………………………………….

c. On amber ……………………………………………..

d. Not on red ……………………………………………….

e. Not on green …………………………………………….

f. Not on amber ………………………………………………

ACTIVITY 3

A letter is drawn from the word PROBABILITY. Find the probability of:

a. Drawing the letter P ……………………………………..

b. Drawing the letter I …………………………………….

c. Drawing the letter A ……………………………………..

d. Drawing a vowel …………………………………………

e. Drawing the letter B ………………………………………

f. Not drawing a vowel ……………………………………….

ACTIVITY 4

A card is drawn from a pack of 52 cards. Determine the probability of drawing:

a. A heart ……………………………………

b. A jack of clubs ……………………………….

c. An ace ……………………………………….

d. A king or queen ………………………………………

e. Neither a heart nor a spade …………………………………

ACTIVITY 5
Suppose a fair die is rolled once. List all the outcomes in the sample space that would
define the following events:

A: A number greater than 2 but less than 5 is obtained

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B: An odd number is obtained

a) Give the Venn diagram that depicts this situation

b) Find the following probabilities:

i) P(A) = ………………………………..

ii) P(B) = ………………………………..

iii) P(A and B) = ………………………………..

iv) P(A or B) = ……………………………………

v) P(Ac) = ………………………………………….

ACTIVITY 6

Given
A = {a; b; c; d; e}
Not A = {f; g; h}
B = {c; d; e; f}

a. Give the sample space S = ……………………

b. Find P(A) = ………………………………….

c. P(A and B) = …………………………………

d. P(A or B) = ……………………………………

e P(not B) = ………………………………………….

ASSIGNING PROBABILITY
CONCEPTS VENN DIAGRAMS
(1½ hours)
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Grade 11

In this session we will cover,

a) Mutually exclusive events and complementary events.

b) Dependent and independent events.

c) Venn diagrams or contingency tables and tree diagrams as aids to

solving probability problems (where events are not necessarily
independent)

MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS AND THE ADDITIONAL RULE

DEFINITION:

Mutually exclusive events (disjoint) are:

Any events or outcomes that cannot occur (happen) simultaneously
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 P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) where (A and B) = Ø

A B A B
+
=

NOT disjoint events:

If events are not disjoint events: P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A and B)

This additional rule forms the basis for the theories of probability and also applies to individual
outcomes as it is used to assign a probability to an event with more than one outcome

A B A B A B A B

= + -

Activity 1:

A. Decide whether the following events are mutually exclusive or not

1. Event A: roll a 3 on a die

Event B; roll a 4 on a die

2. Event A: randomly select a male student

Event B: randomly select a nursing major

3. Event A: randomly select a blood donor with type O blood

Event B: randomly select a female blood donor

4. Event A: randomly select a vehicle that is a Ford

Event B: randomly select a vehicle that is a Toyota

B. Determine as required

1. You select a card from a standard deck.

Find the probability that the card is a 3 or a king

P(3) +P(K) =

2. You roll a fair die.

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 Find the probability of rolling a number less than three or rolling an even number.

P(less 3) +P(even numbers) =

3. A fair die is rolled. Find the probability of rolling a 4 or an odd number

P(4) +P(odd numbers) =

4. A blood bank catalogs the types of blood, including positive or negative Rh-factor, given by
donors the last 5 days. The number of donors who gave each blood type is shown in the table
below:

Blood type
O A B AB Total
Positive 156 139 37 12 344
Rh-factor Negative 28 25 8 4 65
Total 184 164 45 16 409

A donor is selected at random. Find the probability that the donor has

a) Type O or Type A blood: P(type O or type A = P(type O) + P(type A)

b) Type B blood or is Rh-negative : P(Type B or RH-negative)

c) Type B or Type AB blood : P(Type B or Type AB)

ACTIVITY 2:

1. Answer TRUE or FALSE: If two events are mutually exclusive, they have no outcomes in
common.

2. Event A: randomly select a female worker

Event B: randomly selects a worker with a college degree

Event A and B are …………………………………………………

3. Event A: randomly select a person between 18 and 24 years old

Event B: randomly select a person between 25 and 34 years old
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Event A and B are ………………………………………………….

4. A card is selected from a standard deck of cards. Find the probability of the following

a) Randomly selecting a heart or a 3

b) Randomly selecting a black suit or a king

c) Randomly selecting a 5 or a face card

5. A fair die is rolled. Find the probability

a) Rolling a 6 or a number greater than 4

b) Rolling a 3 or an even number

INDEPENDENCE AND THE MULTIPLICATION PRINCIPLE

(Question of independence is important to researches in marketing, medicine, psychology)

DEPEDENT EVENTS:

DEFINITION
Two successive events are dependent, if the outcomes of the first event do have an influence
on the outcomes of the second event.

Example:
a) Suppose that a lunch box contains four sandwiches and 2 apples.
Event A is picking an item of food from the box and eating it.
Event B is picking an item from the box again and eating it.
Clearly event B depends on what happened in event A
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 b) Suppose a die is rolled. Define events
A: an uneven number is obtained
B: a number 4 comes up on the die

P(B) = 1/6 but P(B if we know that A has occurred) = 1/3

So P(B) changed from 1/6 to 1/3 once we knew that A has occurred, hence the events A and B
are not independent.

INDEPENDENT EVENTS:

DEFINITION
Two successive events A and B are said to be independent if the outcomes of the first event
does not influence the outcomes of the second event.
- The probability of A and B both occurring is given by:

P(A and B) = P(A).P(B)

Example:
Suppose event A is tossing a coin and event B is throwing a die.
Event A does not influence the outcome of event B.

If 2 events are independent then we use the PRODUCT RULE:

P (A and B) = P (A) x P (B)

Example:
Suppose a die is thrown and a coin is tossed. Find the probability that a Tail appears on the
coin and a number less than 3 appears on the die.

Event A: Tail on the coin

Event B: number less than 3 on die
P (A and B) = P (A). P (B)
= P (tail on coin) .P (number less than 3)
= (1/2). (2/6)
= 1/6

Activity 3:

A. Decide whether the events are independent or dependent

1. Selecting a king from a standard deck (A), not replacing it, and then selecting a queen from
the deck (B)

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2. Tossing a coin and getting a head (A), then rolling a six-sided die and obtaining a 6 (B)

B. Determine as required

1. A coin is tossed and a die is rolled. Find the probability of getting a head and then rolling an
even number

2. There is a 40% chance that a random selected student will be able to speak English, 65%
chance that he/she speaks Zulu and a 20% chance that he/she can speak both. What is the
chance that he/she will be able to speak at least one of the 2 languages?

ACTIVITY 4

If P(A) = 0,3 and P(B) = 0,5 and P(A or B) = 0,7, find

a) P (A and B) = c) P (not A and B) =

b) P (not A) = d) P (not A or not B) =

ACTIVITY 5

Events A and B are mutually exclusive with P(A) = 0,3 and P(A or B) = 0,7

a) Are A and B complementary?

b) Find P (B)

ACTIVITY 6
A boy has 0,19 probability of winning an art competition and a 0,13 probability of winning a
talent competition where he will perform a song. Suppose he has a 0,11 change of winning both
the art competition and the talent competition ?

a) Define events
A: The boy wins the art competition: P(A) = ………………………..

T: The boy wins the talent competition: P(T) = ………………………….

P(A and T) = …………………………

b) Are events A and T defined in (a) mutually exclusive?

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 a) What is the probability that the boy does not win the art competition?

b) What is the probability that he wins the art competition or the talent competition?

ACTIVITY 7

Suppose that it is estimated that 60 percent of all students pass Mathematics at a particular
school. A student is randomly selected from the Mathematics class of the school

a) What is the probability that this student passes Mathematics?

b) Define events:
M: chosen student passes Mathematics
T: chosen student is over 1,7 meters tall
S: chosen student spends 30 hours a week studying

(i) Would you say events M and T are independent?

(ii) Are events M and S are independent?

iii) Are events S and T mutually exclusive?

c) Suppose that 30% of all learners at the school are over 1, 7 meters tall and 20% of all learners
at that school spend over 30 hours a week studying. Suppose we now choose another pupil.

(i) Find the probability that the next randomly selected pupil is over 1, 7 meters tall and passes
Mathematics

(ii). Find the probability that the next randomly selected pupil is over 1,7 meters tall or passes
Mathematics

ACTIVITY 8

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CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

When 2 events occur that are not independent, we need to consider conditional probability

DEFINITION (concept of conditional probability)

The probability that an event occurs given that another event has already occurred

By P(B/A) we shall mean the conditional probability of event B given that event A has occurred,.
i.e. the probability that event B occurs if we know that event A has occurred.

P(B then A) = P(A) x P(B given A)

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In experiments where the sample space changes after each trial, the trials are dependent on one
another. We can say that the choices are dependent on each other when there is no
replacement.

The denominator of the probability changes with each subsequent choice to reflect the
decreasing sample space. The numerator always the number of favourable outcomes left.

P(A) P(A/B)

A B A B

Formal Definition of conditional probability - for any two events A and B, the conditional
probability of event A given B may be calculated by

(also known as the classical definition of probability)

EXAMPLE

Event R = Red
Event B = Blue

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2. Suppose a fair die is rolled. Define events as follows:

A: an even number is obtained = {2, 4, 6}

B: a 4 appeared on the die = {4}
C: an odd number is obtained = {1, 3, 5}
D: the die rolled is green

Determine the following probabilities:

P(A) = P(obtain an even number) =

P(B) = P(a 4 is obtained) =

P(B/A) = P(a 4 is obtained given that an even number came up)

=

P(A/B) = P(a 4 is obtained given that an odd number came up)

=

P(B/D) = P(getting a four / used a green die)

3. Two cards are selected from a standard deck of cards, without replacing the first
card. Find the probability of selecting a king and then selecting a queen.

4. The table below shows the results of a survey in which 146 families were asked if
they own a computer and if they will be taking a summer vacation this year
Summer vacation
yes no Total
Own Yes 46 11 57
a No 55 34 89
computer Total 101 45 146

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a) Find the probability a randomly selected family is taking a summer vacation this year
given that they own a computer

b) Find the probability a randomly selected family is taking a summer vacation this year
and owns a computer

ACTIVITY:1
For a letter being chosen at random from a sample space S, where
S = {a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i}, the events A and B are as follows:
A = {a, c, e, g, i} and B = {d, e, f}

a) List the elements in the sets:

i) A/ = ……………………………………….

ii) B/ = ……………………………………………….

b) Find:

i) n(A and B) = ……………………………

ii) n(A and B/) = …………………………..

c) Find:

i) P(A/B) =

ii) P(B/A) =

ACTIVITY 2

A selection of 10 cellphone offers includes 5 with free connection and 6 with a free second
battery, while 2 have both free connection and a free second battery.

Let A be the event choosing a cellphone with free connection

Let B the event choosing a cellphone with a free second battery

a) Summarise the given information about the 10 cellphone offers in a Venn diagram

b) Calculate P(A and B) using the product rule

c) Confirm your answer of b) using the classical definition of probability

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 PROBABILITY
CONTINGENCY TABLES
(1½ hours)
Grade 11
In this session you will learn,

Venn diagrams or contingency table and tree diagrams as aid to solving probability problems (where
events are not necessarily independent).

CONTINGENCY TABLES

DEFINITION:

A two—way contingency table shows the observed frequencies for two variables in various
categories. Each variable has two categories (choices) which are mutually exclusive (events that do
not occur at the same time) and exhaustive (the categories cover all possibilities so there is a
category for everyone.

Suppose that a survey was performed to investigate the size of farms and age of farmers. The
results are presented in the following 3 x 5 contingency table

Farm size Up to 39 40 – 49 50 – 59 60 – 69 70 and over

Small 73 64 59 39 20
Medium 42 69 108 60 21
Large 5 18 85 120 22

The above table is an example of a 2-way contingency table as it has 2 variables, namely farm
size and age

The one variable (farm size) has 3 categories, and the other variable (age) has
5 categories

What can be concluded?

That of all the farmers that were interviewed, 108 farmers owned a medium sized farm and were
aged between 50 and 59

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Activity 1:

1. The South African Demographic and Health Survey was carried out in 1998. In part
of the survey, 5671 men were asked about their drinking habits. Their blood
pressure was also measured. The results are summarized in the following
contingency table.

Number of men High blood pressure Blood pressure not Total

high
Drink alcohol 688 1864
Don’t drink alcohol 611 2508
Total

a) Complete the table above by filling in the missing totals

b) How many men had high blood pressure?

c) How many men drank alcohol?

d) If we assume that the men in the survey are representative of all South African men,
then what is the probability (as a fraction) that a man chosen at random in South
Africa will be:

i) a drinker

ii) a drinker with high blood pressure

iii) a non-drinker with high blood pressure?

e) What does the answer to the last two questions (dii and diii) suggest to you about
the effect of drinking on blood pressure?

2. The probability that an airplane flight departs on time is 0,89

The probability that a flight arrives on time is 0,87
The probability that a flight departs and arrives on time is 0,83

a) Display the above information in a two-way table

Arrives on Does not arrive TOTAL

time on time
Departs on time
Does not depart on time
TOTAL

Use the above table to determine the probability that a flight

a) departed on time given that it arrives on time

b) arrives on time given that it departed on time

ACTIVITY 2
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1. Use the given two-way contingency table to answer the questions

P Not P Total
M 80 100
Not M
Total 128 160

a) P(M) =

b) P(P) =

c) P(M and P) =

d) P(M).P(P) =

Therefore: P(M and P) = P(M and P) are………………………………events

2. Use the given two—way contingency table to answer the questions that follow

C Not C Total
M 30 300
Not M 4 396
Total

a) P(M) =

b) P(C) =

c) P(M and C) =

d) P(M).P(C) =

Therefore P(M and C) = P(M and C) are …………………………………..events

3. P(A) = 0,55, P(B) = 0,4 and P(A and B) = 0,25. Determine

A Not A
B
Not B

a. P(not A) =

b. P(A or B) =

c. P(A’ or B’) =

4. At the time of the census in South Africa in 2001, there were 171 000 persons
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 Counted in prisons and police cells. Of these prisoners 163 000 were males
and 8 000 were females. A prison warden draws the table below showing the
number of prisoners in each group.

Gender Total
Male (M) Female (F)
0—19 18 147 1 696
Ages 20—34 99 973 3 392
34+ 44 880 2 912

What is the probability of randomly choosing a

a. prisoner in the 0-19 age group

b. prisoner in the 20-34 age group

c. prisoner in the 34+ age group

d. male prisoner

e. female prisoner

f. male prisoner in the age group 20—34

g. female prisoner and the age group 20—34

h. prisoner in the age group 0—19, given that the prisoner is a female

5. Suppose that 200 patients at a clinic are tested to see if they have HIV virus with the
following results:

Male Female
Have HIV 50 15
Do not have HIV 70 65

Determine whether gender is independent of having the HIV virus

Hint: Determine P(Male) ; P(Male and HIV) ; and P(HIV)

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6. A survey is done amongst primary school children and the following information
was recorded : There are 18 boys in the class of which 10 own a bicycle
There are 10 girls in the class and 4 do not own a bicycle

a. Show what the questionnaire would look like to get this information

b. Set up a 2 x 2 contingency table to depict the information above.

c. Estimate the probability that a randomly selected child is a boy

d. Estimate the probability that a randomly selected child owns a bicycle

e. Estimate the probability that a randomly selected child is a boy and owns a bicycle

f. Is the event of owning a bicycle independent of being a boy ?

Give reasons for answer

g. Given that a boy is chosen, what is the probability that he does not own a bicycle

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7 A health club manager wants to investigate the number of days per week learners
do sport and to see how this is influenced by gender. A random sample of 275
learners are selected and the results are given below

Days spent doing sport

Gender 0-1 2-3 4-5 6-7 Total
Male 40 53 26 6 125
Female 34 68 37 11 150
Total 74 121 63 17 275

From the table, estimate the probability that a randomly selected learner

a. is a female

b. spends 6-7 days per week playing sport

c. is a male and spends 2-3 days per week playing sport

d. is male or spends 2-3 days per week playing sport

e. does not play sport for 6-7 days per week

f. is the event of being a male independent of playing sport on 2-3 days per week ?

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8. Suppose that you are given the following wooden blocks that have shapes and
colours as indicated, where R denotes red, B denotes blue and Y denotes yellow.

R Y B B B
R
R R Y B B

R R Y Y Y B B

These blocks are to be classified according to shape and colour

a) Set up a suitable 2-way table for classifying these blocks

b) Suppose now the blocks are put into a bag and thoroughly shaken. If one block is
to be taken out, what is the probability that this block

i) has the colour red

ii) has a square shape

iii) is yellow and has a round shape

c) Find the following probabilities for the shape and colour of the chosen block as
described above:

i) P(red block)

ii) P(red block given it has a round shape)

iii) P(round shape given it is red)

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 PROBABILITY COUNTING
PRINCIPLES
GRADE 12

In this session you will learn,

a) Generalisation of the fundamental counting principle.

b) Probability problems using the fundamental counting principle.

This session will take 1½ hours [ 30 min for presentation and 1 hr discussion and doing activities]

FUNDAMENTAL COUNTING PRINCIPLE

We can use the fundamental counting principle to calculate the number of outcomes in the sample
space N and the number of outcomes in an event n

 The total number of possible arrangement of n items, where no repetitions are allowed, will
be:
e.g.

 If repetition is allowed, then the total number of possible arrangement of n items where only r
positions are allowed will be: =

e.g. How many code numbers of three digits can be made using the digits 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4 if
the order of the digits is important and repetition is allowed. [Ans: there are 5 numbers and
any of the digits can be chosen. Therefore the total number of codes is 5 × 5 × 5 = 5 3 = 125

 The total number of possible arrangements where repetition is not allowed, will be: ;

n is the number of items that are available to choose from and r the of items chosen.

Activity 1

1. How many words can be formed, using all of the letters in the word MATHEMATICAL, if:

a) The repeated letters are treated as different letters,

b) The repeated letters are treated as identical,
c) The repeated letters are treated as different, and the word start with E,
d) The repeated letters are treated as identical and the word start with T and end with A
e) The repeated letters are treated as different and the word start with T and end with A

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 2. . From a group of 12 boys, we want to elect 1 School-captain, 1 Vice-captain (Sport) and 1
Vice-captain (Culture). On how many different ways can this be done ?

Task 1: School-captain : ….. ways

Task 2: Vice-captain (S) : …… ways
Task 3: Vice-captain (C) : …… ways

Total number: …………………………………………………………………………….

3. In how many different ways can Zandi get dressed if she has 3 tops and 2 skirts
and wears a top and a skirt each day?

Number of ways: …………………………..

(your answer can be checked by using a tree diagram)

4. Suppose that a vendor sells the following items:

Hamburger (H) Milk (M)

Sandwich (S) Coke (C)
Pie (P) Fanta (F)
Energade (E)

I want to buy something to eat and something to drink from the vendor

i) How many different options do I have? ……………………………………………….

ii) What is the probability of buying a pie and a Fanta if I randomly choose one meal
and one drink? ……………………………………………………….

ACTIVITY 2

1. The access code for a house security system consists of four digits. Each digit can
be 0 through to 9. How many access codes are possible if

a) each digit is only used once and not repeated?

b) each digit can be repeated?

2. The access code of a car’s security system consists of four digits. The first digit
cannot be zero and the last digit must be odd. How many different codes are available?

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3. Sipho wants to hang 3 framed pictures on a wall. The wall is too small so he has
to choose 2 of the pictures to hang on the wall.

a) In how many different ways can he do this?

b) Use a tree diagram to illustrate the above

4 Suppose I have 4 fruit in a basket: Apricot (A)

Banana (B)
Fig (F)
Naartjie (N)
I wish to take two fruit to school.

a) In how many ways can this be done?

b) Verify your answer by using a tree diagram

c) What is the probability of taking an apricot to school if I have apricot, banana, fig
and naartjie and randomly choose two fruits to take to school?

5. In how many different ways can the letters G, H, I, J, K and L be arranged for a
six-letter security code if none of the letters may be repeated?

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6. Four different Maths books and 3 Science books need to be placed on a shelf

a. You place any book in any position, in how many different ways can you arrange
the books on the shelf ?

b. If 2 particular books must be placed next to each other, in how many different
ways can you arrange the books on the shelf ?

c. If all Maths books must be next to each other and all the Science books must be
next to each other, in how many different ways can you arrange the books on the
shelf?

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