Trend and Regression Analysis - BBQ Sales:
Monthly
hours
Time period: Wet days in month Temp C sunshine
Month 1 16 8 24
Month 2 12 10 28
Month 3 13 12 32
Month 4 12 13 30
Month 5 8 18 35
Month 6 6 23 50
Month 7 4 26 75
Month 8 2 21 100
Month 9 3 18 70
Month 10 6 16 55
Month 11 10 10 45
Month 12 15 7 24
Month 13 17 6 30
Month 14 15 9 37
Month 15 12 13 45
Month 16 10 17 51
Month 17 6 21 70
Month 18 4 24 90
Month 19 2 25 100
Month 20 5 23 120
Month 21 8 19 90
Month 22 13 15 65
Month 23 16 10 40
Month 24 15 7 25
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.980947150539328
R Square 0.962257312151227
Adjusted R Square 0.956595908973912
Standard Error 65.0196170619379
Observations 24
ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 3 2155644.8213 718548.2738
Residual 20 84551.012058 4227.550603
Total 23 2240195.8333
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat
Intercept 588.339343394351 146.36462839 4.019682555
X Variable 1 -29.8008656163191 6.9394218418 -4.29443062
X Variable 2 -20.3360245434056 5.6038156576 -3.6289603
X Variable 3 10.2695116122408 0.875413675 11.7310386
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation Predicted Y Residuals
1 195.305575879779 -15.30557588
2 314.915035707207 -44.915035707
3 285.52016745304 44.479832547
4 274.445985301472 25.554014699
5 343.316883110924 -23.316883111
6 455.281165810145 34.71883419
7 710.612613718585 9.3873862814
8 1128.63225797427 221.36774203
9 851.754117620946 -51.754117621
10 648.980895675188 -48.980895675
11 549.098464347938 -49.098464348
12 245.442466039504 34.55753396
13 267.793829023716 2.2061709763
14 338.274067911822 11.725932088
15 428.488659485083 11.511340515
16 468.363362217543 21.636637782
17 701.343447141772 -51.343447142
18 905.327336989008 -45.327336989
19 1047.28815980065 2.7118401994
20 1203.94784428332 -103.94784428
21 887.80399724076 2.1960027592
22 563.405977026768 -3.4059770268
23 318.94571258882 51.054287411
24 255.711977651744 -35.711977652
Question: What would you be sceptical about when looking at the coeffcients of the
Answer: Variable 2 which is temperature, has a negative correlation with BBQ sale
Sales:
Rain in mm per
Barbecue Sales month Temp C
180 Month 1 16 8
270 Month 2 12 10
330 Month 3 13 12
300 Month 4 12 13
320 Month 5 8 18
490 Month 6 6 23
720 Month 7 4 26
1350 Month 8 2 21
800 Month 9 3 18
600 Month 10 6 16
500 Month 11 10 10
280 Month 12 15 7
270 Month 13 17 6
350 Month 14 15 9
440 Month 15 12 13
490 Month 16 10 17
650 Month 17 6 21
860 Month 18 4 24
1050 Month 19 2 25
1100 Month 20 5 23
890 Month 21 8 19
560 Month 22 13 15
370 Month 23 16 10
220 Month 24 15 7
F Significance F
169.967988856 2.132868781E-14
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
0.000671878847 283.02807860031 893.6506082
0.00035343358 -44.2762459234 -15.32548531
0.00167195255 -32.02537917034 -8.646669916
2.02720989E-10 8.4434306849024 12.09559254
g at the coeffcients of the X variables?
correlation with BBQ sales - this appears to be counterintuitive.
Monthly
hours Predicted
sunshine sales
24 195
28 315
32 286
30 274
35 343
50 455
75 711
100 1129
70 852
55 649
45 549
24 245
30 268
37 338
45 428
51 468
70 701
90 905
100 1047
120 1204
90 888
65 563
40 319
25 256
