Final Project

Quantitative Analysis: Greenhouse Tomato Production

Juan Manuel Bustamante

12/5/2011

Summary
Greenhouse tomato crop is a dynamic and complex phenomena although tomato is one of the most popular and remarkable vegetable cropped under greenhouse conditions success in this business means increase yield efficiency, greater quality and productivity, which is related to the interaction of a lot of independent variables such as solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, fertilization, irrigation, substrate, ph substrate, CO2 concentration, pruning, pests, etc. Greenhouse tomato production is more profitable and efficient than the more conventional agronomic or horticultural crops because production conditions can be controlled more closely in green houses than in fields resulting in more uniform quality Tomato crops yield from 13 kg m2 to 70 kg m2 this vast difference is due to many factors that interact in a high-tech system that can range from 10 usd to 100 usd m2. In its most advanced technological level, greenhouse production systems are highly capital intensive and a technologically demanding agricultural practice which has come to rely more and more on computer based technologies for monitoring and modeling the plant response to the environment. Although a high productivity with high quality produce is always desired, a high technological level is not always economically feasible because these complex systems are highly dependent on energy, skilled labor, effective management and experience in tomato growth. Furthermore It is not the objective of this project to FULLY develop a model that involves all independent variables but to explain the most important independent variables and present a model for crop dynamics for only one independent variable.

Analysis
Greenhouse Tomatoes production is a challenge the various component elements and the multiple relationships in independent variables established in the greenhouse makes it a complex system plus all the biological issues of tomatoes crops. All these variables establish interactions with each other, its complexity make it a perfect candidate for a quantitative analysis and it could take years of research to be studied in depth detailed mathematical models. Therefore the scope of this project its only to explain the Greenhouse tomatoes most important independent variables focus on two of them, Temperature and Fertilizer, and develop a simple model. Substrate The function of the substrate is to provide the plant a means of supporting, protecting the root of the light, while retaining the plant nutrient solution. There are lot options on substrates I found a lot of documentation and quantitative analysis about this topic in regards of modeling the best substrate. The most important thing is that it has be inert meaning it must not contain substances which react with the nutrient solution, not to contain toxic to plants and avoid if possible that is contaminated with organic matter or mud .The most commonly used substrates in hydroponics are: sand, gravel, volcanic rock, broken brick and, perlite, vermiculite (aluminum silicate), synthetic resins (polyurethane),charcoal, etc. Substrates have a direct correlation on earliness, total yield, number of fruits and fruit quality. Substrates can be enriched and be more efficient if added with gel polymers.

Pruning and Training For best production, tomatoes have to be prune to a single stem by removing all lateral shoots, commonly referred to as suckers. One sucker will form at the point where each leaf originates from the main stem if all suckers are allow to grow and bear fruit would increase the total number of fruit, but they would be small and of poor quality. It is better to have one main stem that bears fruit, as this will produce larger, more uniform, and higher quality fruit. Suckers have to be removed every week manually.

Temperature Greenhouse temperature of 17 to 26 Celsius is optimum, while night temperature of 15 to 17 Celsius is also optimum. During cloudy weather, a temperature closer to the lower end of these ranges is preferred, while in sunny weather, temperatures closer to the higher end are better. Below 13 C, nutrient deficiencies may occur because plants cannot absorb some elements at cool temperatures. The first sign of cool temperature stress is purpling of the leaves, indicating lack of phosphorus uptake (even though there may be adequate phosphorus in the nutrient solution). A temperature over 32 C has to be avoided at all cost lycopene (the pigment that makes tomatoes red) no longer develops. 4 Celsius beyond these upper and lower limits plant will die and all production will be lost. Irrigation Irrigation is controlled automatically, with the use of time clocks or electronic water volume will vary depending on the season and the size of plants. New transplants need only about 2 ounces (50 ml) per plant per day. At maturity on sunny days, however, plants may need up to 3 quarts (2.7 liters or 2,700 ml) of water per plant per day. Generally, 2 quarts per plant per day are adequate for fully grown or almost fully grown plants. It is very important to monitor and control the the first couple of weeks following transplanting, so that the volume of water can be increased as needed. Water should be delivered to each plant. This is usually done with spaghetti tubing and emitters that carry water from main lines to the base of each plant. Each watering should include fertilizer. PH

If the pH is not at the proper level the plant will lose its ability to absorb some of the essential elements required for healthy growth. For all plants there is a particular pH level that will produce optimum results (see chart 1 below).
From Hydroponic Food Product ion
by How ard M. Resh W oodbridge Press, 1987) pH Range 6.0-6.5 6.0-6.5 6.5-7.5 6.5-6.8 5.8-6.4 6.0-6.5 5.8-6.0 6.0-6.5 6.0-6.5 6.5-7.0 6.0-6.8 5.0-5.5 5.0-6.5 6.0-7.0 5.5-6.5 5.5-6.5

Plant Beans Broccoli Cabbage Cant aloupe Carrot s Chives Cucumbers Garlic Let t uce Onions Peas Pineapple Pumpkin Radish St raw berries T omat oes

This pH level will vary from plant to plant, but in general most plants prefer a slightly acid growing environment (between 5.5-6.0), although most plants can still survive in an environment with a pH of between 5.0 and 7.5. Greenhouse yield will be affected. The pH scale is logarithmic a solution with a pH of 6.0 is 10 times more acidic than a solution with a value of pH 7.0, and a solution with a pH value of 5.0 would be 10 times more acidic than the solution of 6.0 pH. In order for tomato plants to use the nutrients they must be dissolved in the solution. Once the nutrients have precipitated out of the solution tomatoes plants can no longer absorb them

Fertilzer Plant nutrients used in hydroponics are dissolved in the water and are mostly in inorganic and ionic form various commercial fertilizer mixes are available for use in bulk tank systems or with injectors. Some mixes are complete, while others require the purchase of additional concentrations my intention in this project is to determine the optimal value for Nitrogen although Potassium plays a very important role as well as the rest of the other elements for the sake of simplicity I chose only Nitrogen. Variation of different mixes throughout the plant life-cycle, further optimizes its nutritional value. Among the dissolved macro and micro nutrients are:

(DOUGLAS, 1976) ppm ELEMENT

LIMITS

Optimum 150-1000 100-500 50-100 50-100 100-400 200-1000 0.1-0.5 0.5-5 2-10 0.5-5 0.01-0.05 0.5-1

Nitrogen Calcium Magnesium Phosphorus Potassium Sulfur Copper Boro Iron Manganese Molybdenum Zinc

250 200 75 80 300 400 0.5 1 5 2 0.02 0.5

Data
Results can be measure in the following way: Fruit mass Fruit diameter Fruit number Plant height Stem diameter Number of trusses Root fresh

For model simplicity I chose only fruit mass, Irrigation was accomplished by periods of 5 min 3 times a day, by using dripping tapes located on the crop channel, with a daily frequency controlled by a programmable watch and by applying the solution in a tank of 100 L and drive by the action of an electric bomb of HP. Nitrogen The following data is accountable for Nitrogen. I chose a collection of 20 tomato plants, Nitrogen variation went from 170 to 270 parts per million fruit mass was an average of 5 tomatoes per plant and nitrogen intake lasted for 5 days until Nitrogen intake was increased in 10 ppm. Regression analysis show a weak positive correlation of a .55 R2 I could not determine the saturation limit because experiment took almost 2 months to get from 170 to 270 ppm however literature states that 250 ppm is more than enough according to the table for every extra Nitrogen PPM you would expect .10 g although this increase has to have a limit and of course there a lot more variables to consider. Constant 198 gr without Nitrogen is not significant because Nitrogen (N) Restricts growth of tops, roots, and especially lateral shoots. Plants become spindly, with general chlorosis of entire plant to a light green, and then a yellowing of older leaves that proceeds upwards toward younger leaves. Older leaves defoliate early. Generally, veins of younger leaves show purpling on undersides when deficiency is severe in tomatoes.

Summary

Multiple R

R-Square

Adjusted R-Square

StErr of Estimate

0.7447
Degrees of Freedom

0.5546
Sum of Squares

0.5470
Mean of Squares

3.086836899
F-Ratio p-Value

ANOVA Table Explained Unexplained

1 59
Coefficient

700.0115608 562.1851605
Standard Error

700.0115608 9.528562042
t-Value

73.4646

< 0.0001

Regression Table Constant PPM N

p-Value

Confidence Interval 95% Lower Upper

198.1076308 0.108891481

2.802158801 0.012704424

70.6982 8.5711

< 0.0001 < 0.0001

192.500524 0.083469987

203.7147376 0.134312974

Nitrogen vs Weight
230.0 228.0

y = 0.10x +198.828

226.0
224.0 Fit

222.0
220.0 218.0 216.0 212.0

214.0

216.0

218.0

220.0

222.0 Weight

224.0

226.0

228.0

230.0

232.0

Potassium

Potassium variation went from 270 to 370 parts per million fruit mass was an average of 5 tomatoes per plant and nitrogen intake lasted for 5 days until Nitrogen intake was increased in 10 ppm. Regression analysis show a weak positive correlation of a .52 R2 same case as the Nitrogen Experiment I could not determine the saturation limit because experiment took almost 2 months to get from 270 to 370 ppm however literature states that 300 ppm is more than enough according to the table for every extra Potassium PPM you would expect .06 g increase although this increase has to have a limit and of course there a lot more variables to consider. However this coefficient is important to point out is minor than the Nitrogen coefficient because Potassium is not as important as Nitrogen the constant 205 gr would be if the plant is not supply with potassium however that is not entirely accurate because Potassium Mature, lower leaves show interveinal chlorosis and marginal necrotic spots or scorching that progresses inward and also upward toward younger leaves as deficiency becomes more severe. The fruit often ripens unevenly or shows blotchy green to yellow patches on red ripe fruit. Fruit sometimes falls off the plants just before ripening. Deficiency may also cause soft or spongy fruit.

Summary

Multiple R

R-Square

Adjusted R-Square

StErr of Estimate

0.7268
Degrees of Freedom

0.5283
Sum of Squares

0.5203
Mean of Squares

1.889964832
F-Ratio p-Value

ANOVA Table Explained Unexplained

1 59
Coefficient

236.0408284 236.0408284 210.7460569 3.571967066

66.0815

< 0.0001

Regression Table Constant PPM K

p-Value

Confidence Interval 95% Lower Upper

205.0990225 2.488158652 0.063231701 0.007778485

82.4300 8.1291

< 0.0001 < 0.0001

200.1202286 210.0778165 0.047666988 0.078796413

Potassium vs Weight
229.0 228.0 227.0 226.0 Fit 225.0 224.0 223.0 222.0 221.0 218.0

y = 0.06x + 205

220.0

222.0

224.0 Weight

226.0

228.0

230.0

232.0

Estimated Greenhouse Climate The average heated greenhouse T was 15.6 C. The average T can be increased by 1C when the climate screen is used and by 0.4C when PE tubes are inflated during the night. Opening time of the greenhouse ventilation system after 9 am and closing time before 4 pm. The greenhouse was always closed until 9 am and was open for about 66% of the days in the 15C. It will be closed more during cloudy hours than clear ones.

Time Series
35

30

25

20

15

10

0 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr May May May May May May Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Agu Agu Agu Agu Agu Agu Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct

Data was supply by thermometer register giving Greenhouse Temperature, outside Maximum and Minum Temp Graph shows how the temperature is controlled inside the Greenhouse, middle line, I could not establish a correlation between temperature and yield because I could not turn off the heaters for obvious reasons but there is a positive correlation between temperature and yield until certain upper limit passing that limit will kill the plant.

Conclusion
I was impressed by the vast literature and documentation in the topic of greenhouse production characterized so dynamically by various authors in terms of temperature control, solar radiation correlation, water behaves, substrates, optimum levels, CO2 concentration, nutrition, pest, diseases, etc. Quantitative Analysis helps to better understand Greenhouse dynamics, establish correlation among variables and set optimum levels in order to get the most return on investment and to predict yield. Greenhouses are complex systems aimed to provide optimum environmental conditions (aerial and root zone) for increased crop yield while making efficient use of resources. However as stated in the summary optimum levels are expensive in terms of energy in our case heating is the most expensive expense.

Nitrogen and Potassium content in tomato is highly correlated , and is a major function of the yield and the quality of the harvest product the purpose of my regression analysis was to determine the amount of this nutrients to maximize yield and fruit quality however there a lot more variables to take into account to maximize total output. Nutrient Deficiency symptoms can happen due to an excess or lack of a nutrient strict control has to be enforce all the time in order to harvest the best product furthermore tomato nutrients intake vary in time across the life of the plant. There are also seasonal fluctuations of yield in greenhouses correlated to greenhouse temperature. Development of quantitative models to predict the behavior of the different variables that make up a good production allow to have a better control of the growth conditions inside the greenhouse, which are determined by all the independent variables mentioned before however despite all the technological advances and the sophistication of greenhouse hydroponic and climate control systems of greenhouse operations and yield relies largely on human expertise by assessing and monitoring plant morphological response. Finally I would like to sate how remarkable is the value of data. Before this class I did not have a clue what could I do with it my goal next year is to gather as much data possible in order to have a more precise understand of whats going in our family Greenhouse currently we are performing at minimum yield mainly because energy costs keep a greenhouse above 15 Celsius in winter is quite expensive I plan to do linear programming and a sensitivity analysis in order to know when to produce and how much amount of money we are willing to pay furthermore I realized I could apply most of the tools you taught us with right amount of data.

Bibliography
Snyder, Richard G., and Jim Thomas. 1996. Fertigation The Basics of Injecting Fertilizer for Field-Grown Tomatoes. Mississippi State University Extension Service. Publication 2037.

http://www.msucares.com/crops/comhort/greenhouse.html. Ashraf, M.Y., F. Hussain, J. Akhtar, A. Gul, M. Ross and G. Ebert. 2008. Effect of different sources and rates of nitrogen and supra optimal level of potassium fertilization on growth, yield and nutrient uptake by sugarcane grown under saline conditions. Pak. J. Bot. McFarlane, K.J. and R.D. Yanai. 2006. Measuring nitrogen and phosphorus uptake by intact roots of mature Acer saccharum (Marsh), Pinus resinosa (Ait) and Picea abies (L.) (Karst). Plant and Soil, 279: 163-172.