CHAPTER 5

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Introduction
In the previous chapter we discussed the basic concepts of probability and described how the rules
of addition and multiplication were used to compute probabilities. In this chapter we expand the
study of probability to include the concept of a probability distribution.

What is a Probability Distribution?

A probability distribution shows the possible outcomes of an experiment and the probability of
each of these outcomes.

Probability distribution: A listing of all the outcomes of an experiment and the probability
associated with each outcome.

How can we generate a probability distribution? As

an example, the possible outcomes on the roll of a
single die are shown at right.

Each face should appear on about one-sixth of the rolls. Number of Probability
The table shows the possible outcomes and Spots on Fractio Decimal
corresponding probabilities for this experiment. It is a Die n
discrete distribution because only certain outcomes are 1 1/6 = 0.1667
possible and the distribution is a result of counting the 2 1/6 = 0.1667
various outcomes. 3 1/6 = 0.1667
4 1/6 = 0.1667
There are several important features of the discrete
5 1/6 = 0.1667
probability distribution:
6 1/6 = 0.1667
1. The listing is exhaustive; that is, all the possible Tota 6/6 = 1.0002
outcomes are included. l
2. The total (sum) of all possible outcomes is 1.0. (In the example, total is greater than 1
because of rounding.)

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3. The probability of any particular outcome is between 0 and 1 inclusive.

4. The outcomes are mutually exclusive, meaning, for example, a 6 spot and a 2 spot cannot
appear at the same time on the roll of one die.

This discrete probability distribution, presented above as a table, may also be portrayed in graphic
form as shown on the right.

By convention the probability is shown on the Y-axis (the vertical axis) and the outcomes on the
X-axis (the horizontal axis). This probability distribution is often referred to as a uniform
distribution.

0.3
0.25
Probability

0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
1 2 3 4 5 6
Num ber of Spots

A probability distribution can also be expressed in equation form.

For example:

P(x) = 1/6, where x can assume the values 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6.

Random Variable

In any experiment of chance, the outcomes occur randomly. A random variable is a value determined by
the outcome of an experiment.

Random Variable: A variable whose value is determined by the outcome of a random experiment.
A random variable may have two forms: discrete or continuous. A discrete random variable may
assume only distinct values and is usually the result of counting.

Discrete random variable: A variable that can assume only certain clearly separated values.

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For example, the number of highway deaths in Arkansas on Memorial Day weekend may be 1, 2,
3,… Another example is the number of students earning a grade of B in your statistics class. In both
instances the number of occurrences result from counting. Note that there can be 12 deaths or 15
B=s but there cannot be 12.63 deaths or 15.27 B grades.

If we measure something, such as the diameter of a tree, the length of a field, or the time it takes to
run the Boston Marathon, the variable is called a continuous random variable.

Continuous random variable: A variable that can assume one of an infinitely large
number of values within certain limitations.

In brief, if the problem involves counting something, the resulting distribution is usually a discrete
probability distribution. If the distribution is the result of a measurement, then it is usually a
continuous probability distribution.

What is the difference between a random variable and a probability distribution? A probability
distribution lists all the possible outcomes as well as their corresponding probabilities. A random
variable lists only the outcomes. We will examine the continuous random variable and the
continuous probability distribution in the next chapter.

The Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation of a Probability Distribution

In Chapter 3 we computed the mean and variance of a frequency distribution. The mean is a
measure of location and the variance is a measure of the spread of the data. In a similar fashion the
mean (µ) and the variance (σ2) summarize a probability distribution.

The Mean

The mean µ, or expected value E(x), of a probability distribution is its long-run average. It is computed
by the following formula:
Mean of a Probability Distribution µ = ∑ x P( x )
This formula directs you to multiply each outcome (x) by its probability P(x); and then add the
products.

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Variance and Standard Deviation

While the mean is a typical value used to summarize a discrete probability distribution, it does not
tell us anything about the spread in the distribution. The variance tells us about the spread or
variation in the data. The variance is computed using the following formula

σ 2 = Σ ( x − µ ) P ( x ) 
2
Variance of a Probability Distribution [5 − 2]
 
The steps in computing the variance using formula [5-2] are:

1. Subtract the mean (µ ) from each outcome ( x ) and square these differences.

2. Multiply each squared difference by its probability P ( x )

3. Sum these products to arrive at the variance.

The standard deviation (σ) of a discrete probability distribution is found by taking the square
root of σ 2, thus σ = σ 2 .

Consider a random experiment in which a coin is tossed three times. Let x be the number of
heads. Let H represent the outcome of a head and T the outcome of a tail.

The possible outcomes for such an experiment will be:

TTT, TTH, THT, THH,

HTT, HTH, HHT, HHH.

Thus the possible values of x (number of heads) are 0,1,2,3.

The outcome of zero heads occurred once.

The outcome of one head occurred three times.

The outcome of two heads occurred three times.

The outcome of three heads occurred once.

From the definition of a random variable, x as defined in this experiment, is a random variable.

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Example: Dan Desch, owner of College Painters, studied his records for the past 20 weeks and reports the
following number of houses painted per week:

Number of houses Painted (X) Probability P(X)

10 0.25
11 0.30
12 0.35
13 0.10
Compute the mean number of houses painted per week:

µ = E( x ) = Σ[ xP( x )]
= (10)(.25) + (11)(.30) + (12)(.35) + (13)(.10)
= 11.3

Compute the variance of the number of houses painted per week:

σ 2 = Σ[( x − µ) 2 P( x )]
= (10 − 11.3) 2 (.25) + ... + (13 − 11.3) 2 (.10)
= 0.4225 + 0.0270 + 0.1715 + 0.2890
= 0.91

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5.1 Discrete Probability Distribution

5.1.1 Binomial Probability Distribution

One of the most widely used discrete probability distributions is the binomial probability distri-
bution. It has the following characteristics:

i) An outcome of an experiment is classified into one of two mutually exclusive categories

a success or a failure.

ii) The random variable is the number of successes in a fixed number of trials.

iii) The probability of a success stays the same for each trial. So does the probability of a
failure.

iv) The trials are independent, meaning that the outcome of one trial does not affect the
outcome of any other trial.

Illustrations of each characteristic are:

i) Each outcome is classified into one of two mutually exclusive categories. An outcome is
classified as either a “success” or a “failure.” For example, 40 percent of the students at a
particular university are enrolled in the College of Business. For a selected student there are
only two possible outcomes the student is enrolled in the College of Business (designated a
success) or he/she is not enrolled in the College of Business (designated a failure).

ii) The binomial distribution is the result of counting the number of successes in a fixed sample
size. If we select 5 students, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 could be enrolled in the College of Business. This
rules out the possibility of 3.45 of the students being enrolled in the College of Business. That
is, there cannot be fractional counts.

iii) The probability of a success remains the same from trial to trial. In the example regarding
the College of Business, the probability of a success remains at 40 percent for all five
students selected.

iv) Each sampled item is independent. This means that if the first student selected is enrolled in
the College of Business, it has no effect on whether the second or the fourth one selected will
be in the College of Business.

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How a Binomial Probability Distribution is Computed

To construct a binomial probability distribution we need to know:

(1) The number of trials, designated n.
(2) The probability of success (p) on each trial.
The binomial probability distribution is constructed using the formula [5-3]:
n
Binomial Probability Distribution P(X) =  p x (1 − p) n − x
x
Where:

n Cx denotes a combination of n items selected x at a time

n is the number of trials

x is the number of observed successes
p is the probability of success on each trial
The mean (µ) and variance (σ 2) of a binomial distribution can be computed by these formulas.

Mean of a binomial distribution µ = np [5 – 4]

Variance of a binomial distribution σ2 = np(1-p) [5 – 5]

Example: The Alabama Department of Labor reports that 20% of the workforce in Mobile is
unemployed. From a sample of 14 workers, calculate the following probabilities:
i) Exactly three are unemployed.
ii) At least three are unemployed.
iii) At least none are unemployed.
Solution:
i) The probability of exactly 3:

P(3)=14 C 3 (.20) 3 (1 − .20)11 = (364)(.0080)(.0859) = .2501

ii) The probability of at least 3 is:

P( x ≥ 3)=14 C 3 (.20) 3 (.80)11 + ...+ 14 C14 (.20)14 (.80) 0

= .250 + .172 + ... + .000 = .551
iii) The probability of at least one being unemployed.
P( x ≥ 1) = 1 − P(0)
= 1−14 C 0 (.20) 0 (1 − .20)14
= 1 − .044 = .956

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5.1.2 Poisson Probability Distribution

Another discrete probability distribution is the Poisson probability distribution.

Poisson probability distribution: Has the same four characteristics as the binomial,
but in addition the probability of success (p) is small, and n, the number of trials, is
relatively large and m = np.

The formula for computing the probability of a success is:

e− m m x
Poisson Distribution Function P( X) = [5 - 6]
x!

; x = 0, 1, 2, 3, ………

Where:
P(x) is the probability for a specified value of x.
x is the number of occurrences (successes).
m is the arithmetic mean number of occurrences (successes) in a particular interval.
e is the mathematical constant 2.71828. (base of the Naperian logarithmic system)

Note that the mean number of successes, µ, can be determined by nπ , where n is the total number
of trials and π is the probability of success.

Mean and Variance of a Poisson distribution = m

As an example where the Poisson distribution is applicable, suppose electric utility bills are based
on the actual reading of the electric meter. In 1 out of 100 cases the meter is incorrectly read (p =
0.01). Suppose the number of errors that appear in the processing of 500 customer bills
approximates the Poisson distribution (n = 500). In this case the mean number of incorrect bills is 5,
found by µ = 500 (0.01).

Using formula [5-6], finding the probability of exactly two errors appearing in 500 customer bills is
rather tedious. Instead we merely refer to the Poisson distribution in Appendix C. Locate by µ =

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(5.0) at the top of a set of columns. Then find the x of 2 in the left column and read across to the
column headed by 5.0. The probability of exactly 2 billing errors is 0.0842.

Example: The Sylvania Urgent Care facility specializes in caring for minor injuries, colds, and flu.
For the evening hours of 6-10 PM the mean number of arrivals is 4.0 per hour. What is the
probability of 4 arrivals in an hour?

µ x e − u 4 2 e −4
P( x ) = = = .1465
x! 2!

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5.2 Continuous Probability Distribution:

5.2.1 Normal Distribution

Introduction
The previous chapter dealt with discrete probability distributions. Recall for a discrete distribution, the
outcome can assume only a specific set of values. For example, the number of correct responses to ten
true-false questions can only be the numbers 0, 1, 2, ...., 10.

This chapter examines an important continuous probability distribution — the normal probability
distribution. Recall that a continuous probability distribution can assume an infinite number of values within
a given range. As an example, the weights for a sample of small engine blocks are: 54.3, 52.7, 53.1 and 53.9
pounds.

Characteristics of the Normal Probability Distribution

The Greek letter µ (lower case mu), represents the mean of a normal distribution and the Greek letter σ
(lower case sigma) represents the standard deviation.

Normal probability distribution: A continuous probability distribution uniquely determined

by µ and σ. The probability density function of a normally distributed random variable X is
2
1 x −µ 
−  
1
f (X) = e 2 σ  ; −∝≤ X≤∝
σ 2π

The major characteristics of the normal distribution are:

1. The normal distribution is “bell-shaped” and the mean, median, and mode are all equal. Exactly
one-half of the observations are larger than this center value and one-half are smaller.

2. The distribution is symmetrical. A vertical line drawn at the mean divides the distribution into two
equal halves and these halves possess exactly the same shape.

3. It is asymptotic. That is, the “tails of the curve approach the X-axis but never actually touch it.

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4. A normal distribution is completely described by its mean and standard deviation. This indicates
that if the mean and standard deviation are known, a normal distribution can be constructed and its
curve drawn.

5. There is a “family” of normal probability distributions. This means there is a different normal
distribution for each combination of µ and σ.

These characteristics are summarized in the graph.

The Standard Normal Probability Distribution

As noted in the previous discussion, there are many normal probability distributions — a different one for
each pair of values for a mean and a standard deviation. This principle makes the normal probability
distribution applicable to a wide range of real-world situations. However, since there are an infinite number of
probability distributions, it would be awkward to construct tables of probabilities for so many different
normal distributions. An efficient method for overcoming this difficulty is to standardize each normal
distribution.

Standard normal distribution: A normal distribution with a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1.

An actual distribution is converted to a standard normal distribution using a z value.

z value: The signed distance between a selected value designated X, and the population mean, µ ,
divided by the population standard deviation, σ.

The formula for a specific standardized z value is

x −µ
Standard Normal Value z=
σ

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Where:
X is the value of any particular observation or measurement.
µ is the mean of the distribution.
σ is the standard deviation of the distribution.
z is the standardized normal value, usually called the z value.

Applications of the Standard Normal Distribution

To obtain the probability of a value falling in the interval between the variable of interest (X) and the mean
(µ), we first compute the distance between the value (X) and the mean (µ). Then we express that difference in
units of the standard deviation by dividing (X − µ) by the standard deviation. This process is called
standardizing.

To illustrate the probability of a value being between a selected X value and the mean µ, suppose the mean
useful life of a car battery is 36 months, with a standard deviation of 3 months. What is the probability that
such a battery will last between 36 and 40 months?

The first step is to convert the 40 months to an equivalent standard normal value, using formula [6-1]. The
X - µ 40 − 36
computation is: z = = = 133
.
σ 3

Next refer to Appendix D, a table for the areas z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05
under the normal curve. A part of the table in ! ! ! !

Appendix D is shown at the right. ! ! ! !

! ! ! !
To use the table, the z value of 1.33 is split into 1.0

two parts, 1.3 and 0.03. To obtain the 1.1 0.3665 0.3686 0.3708 0.3729

probability go down the left-hand column to 1.2 0.3869 0.3888 0.3907 0.3925
1.3 0.4049 0.4066 0.4082 0.4099
1.3, then move over to the column headed 0.03
1.4 0.4207 0.4222 0.4236 0.4251
and read the probability. It is 0.4082.

The probability that a battery will last between 36 and 40 months is 0.4082. Other probabilities may be
calculated, such as more than 46 months, and less than 33 months. Further details are given in Problems 1
through 5.

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CHAPTER EXERCISES:

A. Exercise: (BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION)

1. For a binomial distribution with n = 12 and p = 0.45, find P(x = 8), P(x>4), and P(x<=10).
2. Find the mean and SD of the following distributions:
a) n = 16, p = 0.40 b) n = 15, p = 0.20
c) n = 8, p = 0.42 d) n = 10, p = 0.7
3. For n = 8 trials, compute the probability that x ≥ 1 for each of the following values of p:

a) p = 0.10, b) p = 0.30, and c) p = 0.40

4. The mean and variance of a binomial variate X are 16 and 8. Find
a ) P ( X = 0), b) P ( X =1), c) P ( X ≥ 2), d ) P( X ≤ 2), e ) P ( 4 ≤ X ≤ 6)

5. For a binomial distribution the mean is 6 and the SD is 2 . Write out all the terms of the
distribution.
6. Ten coins are thrown simultaneously. Find the probability of getting at least 7 heads.
7. Harry Ohme is in charge of the electronics section of a large department store. He has noticed
that the probability that a customer who is just browsing will buy something is 0.3. Suppose
that 15 customers browse in the electronics section each hour. Find out,
a) What is the probability that at least one browsing customer will buy something during a
specified hour?
b) What is the probability that at least four browsing customers will buy something during a
specified hour?
c) What is the probability that no browsing customer will buy anything during a specified
hour?
d) What is the probability that no more than four browsing customers will buy something
during a specific hour?

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B. Exercise: (POISSON DISTRIBUTION)

1. Given m = 4.2, for a Poisson distribution, find a) P( x ≤ 2), b) P(x ≥ 5), c) P(x = 8)
2. Given a binomial distribution with n = 28 and p = 0.025, use Poisson approximation to the
binomial to find; a) P( x ≥ 3), b) P(x < 5), c) P(x = 9) .
3. If the prices of new cars increase an average of four times every three years, find the probability
of
a) No price hikes in a randomly selected period of 3 years.
b) Two price hikes.
c) Four price hikes.
d) Five or more.
4. The US Bureau of printing and Engraving is responsible for printing this country’s paper
money. The BPE has an impressively small frequency of printing errors; only 0.5% of all bills
are too flawed for circulation. What is the probability that out of batch of 1,000 bills
a) None are too flawed for circulation?
b) Ten are too flawed for circulation?
c) Fifteen are too flawed for circulation?
d) More than three are too flawed for circulation?
e) Less than 2 are too flawed for circulation?

5. A car hire firm has two cars which it hires out day by day. The number of demands for a car on
each day is distributed as Poisson variate with mean 1.5. Calculate the proportion of days on
which (i) neither car is used, and (ii) some demand is refused.

6. A manufacturer of cotter pins knows that 5% of his product is defective. If he sells cotter pins in
boxes of 100 and guarantees that not more than 10 pins will be defective, what is the
approximate probability that a box will fail to meet the guaranteed quality?

7. Assuming that the traffic accident in a day in a street of Chittagong is 0.001, on how many days
out of a total of 1000 days can we expect:
i) no accident
ii) more than three accidents.

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8. One-fifth percent of blades produced by a blade-manufacturing factory turn out to be defective.
The blades are supplied in packets of 10. Use Poisson distribution to calculate approximate
number of packets containing no defective, at least one defective respectively in a consignment
of 1,00,000 packets.

9. In an industrial complex, the average number of fatal accidents per month is one-half. The
number of accident per month is adequately described by a Poisson distribution. What is the
probability that four months will pass without a fatal accident?

10. Between the hours 2 and 4 p.m. the average no. of phone calls per minute coming into the switch
board of a company is 2.5. Find the probability that during one particular minute there will be no
phone call at all.

11. Certain mass-produced articles of which 0.5% are defective, are packed in cartons each
containing 130 articles. What proportions of cartons are free from defective articles? What
proportion of cartons contains 2 or more defective articles?

C. Exercise: (NORMAL DISTRIBUTION)

1. If X is a normal variate with mean 30 and SD 5. find the probabilities that

(i) 26 ≤ X ≤ 40, (ii) X ≥ 45, (iii) X - 30 > 5

2. Dennis Hogan is the supervisor for the Conowingo Hydroelectric Dam. Mr. Hogan knows that
the dam’s turbines generate electricity at the peak rate only when at least 1,000,000 gallons of
water pass through the dam each day. He also knows, from experience, that the daily flow is
normally distributed, with the mean equal to previous day’s flow and SD of 200,000 gallons.
Yesterday, 850,000 gallons flowed through the dam. What is the probability that turbines will
generate a peak rate today?
3. On the basis of past experience, automobile inspectors in Pennsylvania have noticed that 5% of
all cars coming in for their annual inspection fail to pass. Using the normal approximation to
the binomial, find the probability that between 7 and 18 of the next 200 cars the Lancaster
inspection station will fail the inspection.

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4. The local authorities in a certain city install 10,000 electric lamps in the streets of the city. If
these lamps have an average life of 1,000 burning hours with a standard deviation of 200 hours,
assume normally what no. of lamps might be expected to fail
iii) in the first 800 burning hours
iv) between 800 and 1,200 burning hours
5. A banker claims that the life of a regular saving account opened with his bank averages 18
months with a standard deviation of 6.45 months. Answer the following:
a) What is the probability that there will be money in 22 months in a savings accounts
opened with the said bank by a depositor?
b) What is the probability that the account will have been closed before two years?
6. Reading a certain normal distribution concerning the income of the individuals we are given
that mean = 500 Rs. and SD = 100 Rs. Find the probability that an individual selected at random
will belong to income group
c) Rs. 550 to Rs. 650, b) Rs. 420 to Rs. 570
7. A certain company manufactures 1.5” all-purpose rope made from imported hemp. The
manager of the company knows that the average load –bearing capacity of the rope is 200 lbs.
Assuming that normal distribution applies, find the standard deviation of load-bearing capacity
for the 1.5” rope if it is given that the rope has a 0.1210 probability of breaking with 68 lbs. or
less pull.
8. In a distribution exactly normal 7% of the items are under 35 and 85% are 63. What are the
mean and SD of the distribution?
9. Assume that the mean height of soldiers to be 68.22 inches with a variance of 10.8 inches. How
many soldiers in a regiment of 1000 would you expect to be over six feet tall?

Chapter 5
Probability Distributions
Comparisons among Binomial, Poisson, and Normal Distributions:
Binomial Poisson Normal
n (Number of trials) Fixed Infinite Infinite
p or q Very Small Neither too small nor very Large
Probability Function px q N−X e −m m x
2
P(X) = N C 1  x −µ 
−  
X P(X) = 1
; x = 0, 1, 2, ...... , N x! f (X) = e 2 σ 
; x = 0,1, 2, 3,...... σ 2π
; −∝≤ X≤∝
Mean and Variance Mean (np) > Variance (npq) Mean = Variance (m) Mean =µ ,Variance = σ2
Mode When (n + 1)p = I + f*, then m When m = I + f, then I Mode = µ
When (n + 1)p = I, then I and I - 1 When m = I, then I and I - 1
* I = integer, f = fraction

Chapter 5
Probability Distributions