Data Centres Powering Digital India Volume II Img 66c4b46706909
Data Centres Powering Digital India Volume II Img 66c4b46706909
Centres
Powering Digital India
(Volume II)
August 2024
Table Of Contents
2 GW
Indian Data Center industry is
maturing with the influx of
long-term stable capital. The
demand remains high on 1 GW
account of digitization and data
26%
localization themes and is CAGR
expected to accentuate due to
AI implementation. ~ US$ 7 Bn[1]
investment
3 Source: Avendus Estimates | (1) Including the potential increase in cost due to inflation
Data Centres | Powering Digital India
315
185
75
2000 - 2007 2008 - 2010 2011 - 2014 2015 - 2019 Dec'19 Jun'20 Dec'20 Jun'21 Dec'21 Jun'22 Dec'22 Jun'23 Dec'23
Multiple Tailwinds Are Driving The Above Growth; These Tailwinds Are Expected To Continue Into The Foreseeable Future
Accelerated adoption of Artificial Data localization Roll-out of 5G & Explosion in data Business continuity &
cloud services Intelligence requirement increased bandwidth creation & consumption back-up plans
01.
Industry Themes
Several Trends Shaping Up The Indian
DC Industry
Data Centres | Powering Digital India
Indian Data Center Industry Has Been Evolving With Numerous Developments
01
Evolving Hyperscale DC Market
As the data center industry in India is maturing, the market participants’ initial bet of hyperscale model is shaping into core real estate
asset class dynamics, with multiple RE funds and RE developers entering the segment
03
Hyperscalers Go For Own And Operate Model
Given the long-term view on Indian market and limited availability of large facilities, hyperscalers are going for self-
build/owned DC projects
04
Rise Of AI Demands Re-evaluation Of The Existing Data Centre Infrastructure
Generative AI has opened a world of possibilities, resulting in a significant surge in compute usage across multiple applications;
expected to create a second stream of data center demand comparable to the cloud
05
Edge Data Centers Are Up For A Long Run In India
Edge DC infrastructure to be a key factor in fostering inclusivity, enhancing user experiences, and propelling India towards the
forefront of the global digital economy
6
Data Centres | Powering Digital India
1A
Evolving Hyperscale DC Market – Falling Rentals In The Industry
Increasing Number Of Developers Servicing The Same Hyperscalers; Leading To Price Correction
Increasing Number Of Developers[1] Have Entered The Industry To Cater To The Burgeoning Demand From Hyperscale Customers
10 11
8
5 6
Real estate players started investing in 2021-22 and will have operational capacity from 2024 onwards
1B
Evolving Hyperscale DC Market – Falling Rentals In The Industry
Increasing Number Of Developers Servicing The Same Hyperscalers; Leading To Price Correction
Consumer Becoming The King: Limited Number Of Clients To Cater To In The Hyperscale Model
90
85
75 75 77
Rentals have significantly come down from ~ US$ 100/kW/month to ~ US$ 80/kW/month impacting development returns for all players
2A
What Else If Not Hyperscale Model? – Enterprise Solutions Are Return Accretive
Amidst The Hyperscale Dominance; 50% Of The Market Continues To Be Enterprise
Current Installed Capacity Of ~ 1 GW Of Which ~ 30% Is Taken Up By BFSI And Tech Industry
Hyperscale BFSI Technology All enterprises whether public or private have dependency
upon reliable, always-on DC operations
2% 1% 4%
Increased number of digital transactions are leading BFSIs
to invest more in Data Centre space
Entertainment / Media Energy Others
2B
What Else If Not Hyperscale Model? – Enterprise Solutions Are Return Accretive
A Business Model With A Different Value Proposition
The business strategy of catering to organizations that lack the space/IT resources to manage their own data centers is reaping rewards for service providers
01 Shrinking rentals in hyperscale model putting enterprise play into spotlight 03 Organizations wanting to free up IT personnel and financial resources
02 Cost cutting pressure fueling the entire shift from public to private clouds 04 Clients gets operational flexibility while cutting down on capex cost
Rentals ($/kW/Mon) By Leased Capacity Key Highlights Return Profiles For The Different Buckets Of Enterprise Play
• Enterprise clients typically lease up to 1 Quantum Capex Cost Opex Operating Yield (Low) Yield (High)
< 1 MW Leased (per MW) Intensity Margin (%) (%) (%)
93 116 MW of capacity basis organizational needs
(Retail)
• Service providers have better negotiation Sub 1 MW US$ 6.5 Mn 3 65% 11.2% 14.0%
power with smaller enterprise customers
• Smaller customers go for bundled services 1 – 5 MW US$ 6.5 Mn 1 70% 10.6% 12.1%
1 – 5 MW
82 94 and thus the pricing is significantly
(Wholesale)
lucrative Same capex & higher opex but higher rentals leading to better yields
3
Hyperscalers Are Opting For Own And Operate Model
Land Banking Strategy For Captive Facilities Is At A Spree Amongst The Hyperscalers
Global hyperscales are eyeing India for expansion, and are increasingly opting ‘own and operate’ model
Part of the Data Protection Bill 2023[1], data localization restricts cross-border data storage
Land Parcels Acquired By The Three Hyperscalers In India
Sectoral regulators leading the way for data localization necessitating local DC presence
Pune
Directive On • All data related to payment transactions is to be stored in Mumbai # Land Parcels 1
Storage Of systems located in India # Land Parcels 4 Land size 25 acres
Payment System • RBI laid down guidelines to encourage entities to outsource Land size 74 acres
Data services to local DC players
• It ensures that government bodies takes cloud services from Maharashtra Telangana
GI Cloud empaneled players only
(Meghraj) • Empanelment requires data center facilities, and hardware
to be based in India While AWS and Google have banked land parcels in Mumbai,
Microsoft have opted for Hyderabad i.e., its corporate HQ city
4
AI Is About To Take The Data Center Industry By Storm
The Global Markets Have Started Witnessing The Impact Of AI; India Is Not Too Far Behind
Tsunami of AI demand hits the global data center market AI and 5G to revolutionize the data center industry in India
600 MW 420 MW 360 MW 300 MW High end computing infra (GPU servers) are being put into use to service this demand
Google signed a Microsoft signed a Microsoft signed a Microsoft signed a
deal in Texas deal in Leesburg, VA deal in Dallas deal in Chicago With ~600 GPUs across its 2 DCs, E2E was the 1st to use NVIDIA V100 GPUs,
the most advanced data center GPU in the market
Multiple 500+ MW requirements from hyperscalers in the market; indicating that incremental
demand from AI workloads might soon outpace traditional cloud computing
Yotta has launched Shakti Cloud consisting of 16,000 NVIDIA GPUs. Shakti is
India’s 1st AI-centric cloud, plans to scale to 32,000 GPUs by 2025
AI led demand growth expected to ramp up now for Indian DCs
Partnership with NVIDIA to set-up AI Data Centres in India via its Platform
India’s Generative AI Sector (US$ Bn) Digital Connexion
2023 2030
Expected demand for AI enabled DCs in India is ~500 MW over the next 4 years
Also, the existing infrastructure isn’t designed to handle this massive processing power that AI
workloads require and thus, a re-evaluation of traditional DCs is necessitated
Liquid-based Cooling Higher floor loading of Higher floor-to- ceiling
2,500 kg/m2 height of 18 ft
12 Source: Avendus Research, TD Cowen Equity Research, JLL Data Centre Update – H1 2023 | (1) Goldman Sachs Research
Data Centres | Powering Digital India
5
The Buzzword Around Edge Data Centers Starting To Take Real Shape
Trend towards shift to edge DCs, though it will take 2-5 years for a significant footprint in Tier 2 & 3 cities
Current
Demand Drivers
Demand
Video Apps Video Streaming Audio Streaming Ride Sharing Remote Work/WFH Gaming
Demand Over
The Next
5 Years
Artificial Intelligence Internet of Things Virtual Reality Autonomous Vehicles OTT Penetration Content Delivery Networks
Why Edge Data Centers In India Are The Need Of The Hour? Deploying At Speed With Prefab Data Centers
01 Growth of Digital India serve more and remote locations. A prefab DC is an individual module or
container pre-fitted in a factory with equipment that can be stacked on a
Demand for better user experience with low latency data usage is increasing need basis
due to consumption of wide spectrum of digital services by businesses and
individuals
13
Data Centres | Powering Digital India
02.
Key Geographical
Markets
7 Key Cities Constitute Majority Of
Total Demand And Supply In The
Country
Data Centres | Powering Digital India
Delhi - NCR Kolkata Mumbai and Chennai leading the race: inherent advantage
of dense wet cable ecosystem offering best global latencies
Total capacity 94 MW Total capacity 10 MW
Net absorption 22 MW Net absorption 5 MW 1. Mumbai:
1. Currently accounts for 48% of total DC capacity in India:
– Submarine landing stations
– Reliable power, roads, and fiber infrastructure
Mumbai Metropolitan Region
– Huge BFSI demand, telecom hub, and absence of any
Total capacity 490 MW major natural threats
Net absorption 153 MW 2. 35+% of total additional capacity over the next five years in
India is likely to be in Mumbai
Pune Hyderabad
2. Chennai witnessing massive demand due to similar
Total capacity 64 MW Total capacity 48 MW infrastructure network as that of Mumbai
Net absorption 9 MW Net absorption 15 MW – ~25% of incremental capacity expected to come in Chennai
– The landing of new MIST cable to attract demand from APAC
Chennai
Bengaluru
Total capacity 147 MW 3. Delhi and Kolkata being the only locations in North and East
Total capacity 97 MW Net absorption 70 MW India serves regional enterprise demand
Net absorption 20 MW – ~15% of incremental capacity expected to come from Delhi.
Strategically situated, Noida is coming up with substantial
capacity additions
15 Source: Avendus Estimates, CBRE Indian DC Market – Dec’23, JLL Data Centre Update – H1 2023 | Note: Annual Absorption is for CY23
Data Centres | Powering Digital India
Total assets[2] 42 22 31 33 18 13 8
Landing Stations[3] 12 4 - - - - -
< 250 kW 100 – 136 100 – 109 91 – 109 95 – 113 86 – 100 95 – 113 100 – 118
Pricing
($ per 250 kW – 1 MW 91 – 113 95 – 104 89 – 104 89 – 100 80 – 95 89 – 100 91 – 100
kW per 1 – 5 MW 82 – 95 86 – 95 86 – 95 80 – 91 77 – 86 80 – 91 NA
month)
> 5 MW 77 - 91 77 - 82 79 - 82 77 – 86 73 – 77 77 - 86 NA
Strategic significance Secure location for DCs: Availability of land, BTS solutions – Pledged investments
Best location for DCs in Meets East-India
Remarks coupled with growing India’s least active attractive policies, & on- Proximity to Mumbai from major tech-giants
the country enterprise demand
presence of enterprises seismic zone ground gov. support but better risk profile and hyperscalers
16 Source: Avendus Estimates, JLL Data Centre Update – H1 2023 | (1) Excl. the hyperscale self-build supply, (2) India has ~50 more assets in other cities of the county, (3) India has total of 19 landing stations; 1 each in Kochi, Tuticorin and Trivandrum
Data Centres | Powering Digital India
03.
Market Landscape
Market can broadly be categorized
into 4 buckets
Data Centres | Powering Digital India
Company
All 7 hubs
Mumbai, Bangalore,
All 7 hubs All 7 hubs (-) Pune All 7 hubs Mumbai, Delhi NCR,
Geographic Presence Chennai,
(+) Bhubaneshwar (+) Ahmedabad (+) Lucknow (-) Pune Gandhinagar
Delhi-NCR
(+) Patna
Company
Operational Assets 1 DC - - - - -
Company
Operational Assets 1 1 1 3 - -
Company
Iron Mountain (54%), Promoter (55%), EVP & MLC PE (28%), Intel Capital, IFC, Promoters (63%),
Key Shareholder Larsen & Toubro Promoters
Promoters (46%) GEF Capital (41%) Angel Investors (24%) Iron Mountain Futuristic Capital (21%)
Operating Capacity
33 8 8 7 600 Racks - -
(MW)
Upcoming Capacity
64 18 - 21 500 Racks 90 24
(MW)
Mumbai, Noida,
Mumbai, Nashik, Vijayawada, Mumbai, Delhi, Noida, Jaipur, Raipur,
Geographic Presence Bangalore, Hyderabad, Mumbai, Chennai Chennai, Kolkata
Bangalore, Mohali Kochi Ahmedabad, Bangalore Chennai
Pune
Planning to expand
Signed MoUs /
Amongst the preferred operations to Plans to develop 250
Agreements to invest Targeted to invest INR
managed DC and cloud Hyderabad with an Upcoming facilities in MW of hyper density
Remarks in data centers in 13 Bn to develop more -
service providers for investment of INR 200 Mumbai and Chennai data centers in India
Chennai, Telangana, assets
SMBs Cr over a period of next over the next 5 years
and Bangalore
2 years
04.
Return Dynamics
& Transactions
Asset Develop & Sell Model Can
Deliver 25%+ IRR
Data Centres | Powering Digital India
Return Dynamics
Delivers Better Development Returns Vis-à-vis Other Yielding Real Asset Classes
White Space / MW 6,000 sqft White space required Development Yield Development Yield
9.5% 10.8%
Built-up Area / MW 14,000 sqft Met by 40% - 45% Floor Area Ratio on white space
Total Capex / sqft INR 38,750 Capex of INR 540 Mn to build 1 MW of IT load EBITDA Margin EBITDA Margin
90% 63%
Revenue / sqft / month INR 476 Current pricing of US$ 80/kW/month in the industry
24 Avendus Estimates
Data Centres | Powering Digital India
Hyperscale Developers Enterprise Colocation Cloud Service Providers Managed Service Players
4 4 3 0
Capex Real Estate development and leasing Capex is same as the hyperscale model 3-4x to that of Hyperscale projects Opex heavy businesses
Intensity Payback of 8-9 Years Payback of 7-8 Years Payback of 3-4 Years Negligible capex investments
Pricing • Charges for the quantum of space leased • Charges for the quantum of space leased • Charges for compute & storage needs • Charges for service type and manpower
Terms • INR 6,500/kW/month • INR 8,000/kW/month • INR 70,000/TB RAM, INR 3,000/TB Storage • Billed basis FTE model[1], # tickets raised
• Power is a pass-through expense • Power is a pass-through expense • Ownership of servers increases opex • Employee salaries is the major expense
Margins
• EBITDA Margin: ~ 70% • EBITDA Margin: ~ 65% • EBITDA Margin: 40 - 50% • EBITDA Margin: 25 - 30%
• Plain vanilla leasing model; reducing rentals • Though higher opex but has higher rentals • Small capacities servicing large client base • Businesses with operating leverage
Returns
• IRR: ~15% for a 5-year period • IRR: 20 - 24% for a 5-year period • IRR: 30-35% for a 5-year period • Avg. ROCEs: 22%+; Avg. ROEs: 30%+
Domestic Transactions
Mar-2024 PE Growth 84 Group of HNIs Proceeds from the stake sale to be used to pare group (Shapoorji Pallonji) level debt as well as towards growth capital
Sep-2023 PE Growth 73 Funds to be used to expand DC capacity across India and invest in renewable energy
Jul-2023 JV 120 This JV succeeds BAM Digital Realty, the previous India-focused JV between Digital Realty & Brookfield Infrastructure
Jun-2023 EPC Contract 85 Prestige to construct 3 data centers buildings in NTT’s 100 MW DC campus in Bangalore
Nov-2021 PE Growth 135 To develop new DCs in Mumbai, Noida, Chennai, Bangalore, and Hyderabad
Jan-2021 PE Growth 23 Intel Capital Invested in 2013, 2015; IFC invested in 2015; Iron Mountain invested in 2021
Jun-2018 M&A 16 HCL Services Limited reported revenues of INR 5.6 billion and net worth of INR 539.6 million for the year ended 2017
Jun-2018 PE Growth 24 Primary + Secondary (Exit of Canbank which invested US$ 4 Mn in Feb ‘15)
F Y 18 - 24 FY 24 - 28 F Y 2 8 Onw ards
In advanced stages of raising growth capital and Global portfolio of ~2.5 GW with 300+ DCs
providing exit to current shareholders Has increased its dividend for 17 consecutive years
SPAC listing to fund AI growth and provide platform Global portfolio of 250+ DCs with ~356,500 racks
for exit Recently announced a 10% increase to the dividend
Some strategic investments as well marking entry of global IPO activity is also expected to pick pace with some players
players to ride the hockey stick growth wave of the DC industry citing this route to raise capital for next phase of growth
Likely to go for listing over next 12-24 months for With strong interest of ecosystem participants in the Indian DC
potential exit of current investors and raise funding space, the emergence of DC REITs is expected in next 5 years
05.
Global Market
Snapshot
Key Players, Investors And
Valuation Metrics
Data Centres | Powering Digital India
Global Players
Several Players Have Emerged Across Various Geographies
Global
North
America
Middle East,
Africa, And
Latin America
Europe
Asia
Pacific
29
Data Centres | Powering Digital India
Global Investors
Sector Offers a Mix Of Stable Returns as Well as High Growth Opportunities, and Hence Has Multitude of Investors
(M Cap. – 2.8)
30 Source: Capital IQ; Market Cap (US$ Bn) is as of 28th June 2024
Data Centres | Powering Digital India
Global Transactions
Globally, Industry Witnessed Several US$ 200+ Mn Fund Raises And Several Multi-Bn M&A Transactions
Date Target Deal Size Investors Date Target Deal Size Buyer
Average 20.3x
32 Source: Capital IQ | Note: (i) Market Cap is as of 28th June 2024, (ii) Forward EV/EBITDA Multiple
Data Centres | Powering Digital India
33 Source: Capital IQ | Note: Market Cap is as of 28th June 2024. The companies whose EV/NTM EBITDA is in the range of 10 – 30x and EV/ NTM Revenue is less than 15.0x have only been considered for determining the average numbers
Data Centres | Powering Digital India
06.
About Avendus
Data Centres | Powering Digital India
Avendus Capital
India’s Premier Financial Services Franchise
AsiaMoney
Brokers Poll
2023 Best Domestic Brokerage Overall Country Research, Sales & Brokerage
Institutional
Equities 260+ Stock coverage
with Market Cap 400+ Global Fund
Relationships 15 Sectors covered
(80% of the
Transformation
of USD 2.8 tn Market cap) 2022 Best Domestic Brokerage Overall Country Research & Sales Execution
Avendus Absolute Best Single Country Fund, 18th HFM AsiaHedge Awards Hong Kong 2019
AUM
Asset
Mgmt. ~USD 630 mn 4 Specialized
Strategies
Return Fund Best AIF CAT 3 Long Short (2 Years of Risk-Adjusted Returns), 2021
#1 Indian Equity Fund, HFM Asia Performance Awards 2022
Avendus Enhanced
Return Fund Best Multi Strategy Fund, HFM Asia Performance Awards 2021
Sectors Covered
Avendus Contacts
Prateek Jhawar
MD & Head – Infrastructure & Real Assets
Email: [email protected]
Mobile: +91 98675 77502
Vaibhav Garg
Vice President
Email: [email protected]
Mobile: +91 77188 08843
Vinod Saran
Analyst
Email: [email protected]
Mobile: +91 72320 53536
37
Disclaimer
This document is being furnished to you by Avendus Capital Private Limited for itself and its affiliates strictly on a confidential basis. The document is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as an offer to sell, or offer for
subscription, or as a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities or other investments mentioned in it. This information profile has been provided to its recipient upon the express understanding that the information contained herein, or
made available in connection with any further investigation, is strictly confidential and is intended for the exclusive use of its recipient. It shall not be photocopied, reproduced and/or distributed to others at any time without prior written
consent.
Spark Institutional Equities Private Limited, SEBI registered broker-dealer & Research Analyst, is an affiliate of ACPL and is engaged with ACPL on a non-exclusive business partnership for public market business. Any reference to “research”,
“research report” or other research related terms in this document refers to research capability and research team of one of our partners and any engagement with such research team shall be subject to terms and conditions agreed
between ACPL and its partner.
All third-party logos / icons referenced by the Company remain the property of their respective owners solely. Any such reference herein by the Company is only to identify the relevant entity / organisation and shall be considered honest and
fair use under the IP laws.
This document is neither a prospectus nor an invitation to subscribe to securities or other investments. Nothing in this document is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities or investment advice, or opinion regarding the appropriateness
of any investment, or a solicitation for any product or service. The information herein is subject to change without notice. Avendus Capital Private Limited does not represent that any information, including any third party information, is
accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon without proper investigation on the part of the investor/s.
Neither Avendus Capital Private Limited nor its affiliates nor any of its officers or employees accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents. The recipient of the
material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons
that prevent us from doing so.
Investments in securities/equity related instruments are subject to market risk. These risks could be security specific or market specific and arising from company, industry, political, economic (both domestic and global), etc, factors.
Investor/s should carefully read all disclosure documents before investing and shall not make Avendus Capital Private Limited and/or its associates/employees liable for any risks/losses pertaining to any product/scheme offered by them
from time to time.
Past performance does not indicate the future performance of any current or future fund or strategies advised or managed by Avendus Capital Private Limited or its affiliates.
Distribution of this document in some jurisdictions may be restricted or prohibited by law and regulation, and accordingly recipients of this document represent that they are able to receive it without contravention of any unfulfilled
registration requirements or any other legal or regulatory restrictions. Recipients of this document in such jurisdiction should fully inform themselves about and observe all applicable legal or regulatory requirements and Avendus Capital
Private Limited and its affiliates, directors, shareholders, managers, officers, employees, agents and advisors, do not accept any liability to any person in relation thereto.
For the purposes of distribution within the United Kingdom, this communication is exempt from the financial promotion restriction in Section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act, 2000 relating to the communication of an invitation
or inducement to engage in investment activity on the grounds that it is made to those persons falling within the following Articles of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended: Article 19
(Investment Professionals) and Article 49 (High Net Worth Companies). Any investment to which this communication relates is only available to investment professionals and high net worth companies.
If you have received this document and you are not the person for whom it is intended, you should not rely on this communication or act on it.
Avendus Capital Private Limited (ACPL) (together with its affiliates/associates and subsidiaries is termed as ‘Avendus’) is engaged in multiple financial service businesses inter-alia investment/merchant banking, lending, broking,
distribution, wealth management, asset management, portfolio management, equity capital markets. Reference to ‘Avendus’ herein shall individually or collectively refer to its respective relevant Avendus group entity/ies as the context may
require. Given these various businesses actual, potential, or apparent conflict of interest may arise as a result of various business activities carried out by Avendus. Avendus has policies and procedures in place for addressing such conflicts.
Avendus and its directors/partners/employees shall exercise a standard of good faith in its dealings. You are requested to be aware and consider such conflicts before dealing with Avendus.
Avendus Offices
Avendus Capital Private Limited: CIN: U99999MH1999PTC123358 | SEBI Registration no.: Merchant Banking - INM000011021 | Avendus Wealth Management Private Limited: CIN: U67120MH2008PTC179931 | SEBI Registration no.: PMS -
INP000003625 | SEC - USA: CRD No. 156771 | Avendus Capital, Inc: FINRA-USA: CRD No. – 150160 | Avendus Capital(UK) Private Limited: Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (493919) | Avezo Advisors Pvt. Ltd.: CIN:
U74120MH2014PTC255373 | SEBI Registration No. Portfolio Manager – INP000004607 | Manager to SEBI registered Category – I Alternative Investment Fund – Zodius Technology Fund – IN/AIF1/14-15/0126 | Manager to SEBI registered Category
III Alternative Investment Fund- Avendus India Opportunities Fund III – IN/AIF3/12-13/0033
INVESTMENT INSTITUTIONAL WEALTH ASSET CREDIT
BANKING EQUITIES MANAGEMENT MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS
www.avendus.com