Clinton Presidential Records

Mandatory Declassification Review

This is not a presidential record. This is used as an administrative

marker by the William J. Clinton Presidential Library Staff.

Documents from this Mandatory Declassification Review were

released in fiill or released in part.

Those documents released with redactions have been restricted

under Sections 1.4 (b), (c), (d), and 3.5 (c) of E.O. 13526 or (b)(3)
of the FOIA.
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NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

24-Aug-1993 18:58 EDT

SECRET

MEMORANDUM FOR: SEE BELOW

FROM: Richard A. Clarke

(CLARKER)

SUBJECT: CAL LUNCH: GLOBAL'S ITEMS

1. Funding UN Peacekeeping Operations

Issue: State has refused t o supply the d r a f t r u l e s f o r

interagency clearance f o r UN votes on peacekeeping.

EO 13526 1.4d

This issue takes on increased importance i n l i g h t of four new

PKO now under c o n s i d e r a t i o n (Rwanda, L i b e r i a , Abkhazia, and
Haiti).

2. Sudan: D e t e r r i n g and Responding t o T e r r o r i s m

EO 13526 1.4d

3. Somalia: The Next Phase

Issue: Who should give a major speech on Somalia?

Background: Both State and Defense are working on speeches

on Somalia f o r t h e i r S e c r e t a r i e s . You may want t o suggest
t h a t both of them give such speeches. I n a d d i t i o n t o n o t i n g
the progress we have made i n Somalia, the speeches could t a l k
about peacekeeping more g e n e r a l l y as p a r t o f the Funding
Peacekeeping Strategy.

DECLASSIFIED I N PART

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4. A i r l i f t i n g Musicians from Bosnia:

Wilson/Schwartz p r o v i d i n g s e p a r a t e l y

5. DOD's G l o b a l I n i t i a t i v e Money:

Global w i l l p r o v i d e a separate memo w i t h Rosner.

Distribution:

FOR: Mary C. Emery ( EMERY )

FOR: Wilma G. H a l l ( HALL )
FOR: K r i s t e n K. C i c i o ( CICIO )
FOR: K a t h e r i n e M. V e i t ( VEIT )
FOR: James W. Reed ( REED )
FOR: W i l l i a m H. I t o h ( ITOH )
FOR: K r i s t i e A. Kenney ( KENNEY )
FOR: M. Brooke Darby ( DARBY )
CC Records ( RECORDS )
CC Richard A. C l a r k e ( CLARKER )
CC Richard L. Canas ( CANAS )
CC Wanda D. Lindsey ( LINDSEY )
CC Rand R. Beers ( BEERS )
CC E r i c P. Schwartz ( SCHWARTZ )
CC Ernest J. Wilson I I I ( WILSON )
CC Slusan E. Rice ( RICE )
CC Marcia G. Norman ( NORMAN )
CC 0. Ruth S t a l c u p ( STALCUP )
CC Sean J. Darragh ( DARRAGH )

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CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

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NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

27-Sep-1993 16:55 EDT

-eOHriDDNTIAL

MEMORANDUM FOR: SEE BELOW

FROM: N i c h o l a s J. Rasmussen
(RASMUSSEN)

SUBJECT: Rwanda Peacekeeping O p e r a t i o n

Mr. Lake/Mr. Berger --

Susan Rice asked t h a t I b r i n g t o your a t t e n t i o n the f a c t t h a t

the S e c u r i t y C o u n c i l appears t o be moving v e r y q u i c k l y toward
a v o t e on a r e s o l u t i o n e s t a b l i s h i n g a UN peacekeeping
o p e r a t i o n i n Rwanda. I n f o r m a l c o n s u l t a t i o n s have a l r e a d y
begun on the SYG's r e p o r t ( r e l e a s e d Monday).

I n keeping w i t h our d e s i r e t o precede more d e l i b e r a t e l y

b e f o r e v o t i n g yea or nay on new UN o p e r a t i o n s , S t a t e i s
a s k i n g USUN t o slow the process so t h a t we can take a c l o s e
l o o k a t the SYG's r e p o r t , as w e l l as a t the c o s t a n a l y s i s
( s t i l l pending) from the UN budget people. Nonetheless, we
w i l l p r o b a b l y need t o have a USG p o s i t i o n by the b e g i n n i n g of
next week.

We recommend t h a t a Deputies Committee meeting be scheduled

on Thursday or F r i d a y t o c o n s i d e r the i s s u e . A number of
issues should be discussed by Deputies, i n c l u d i n g f u n d i n g of
the U.S. share of an o p e r a t i o n , French a t t e m p t s t o l i n k the
o p e r a t i o n w i t h a L i b e r i a PKO, and how the o p e r a t i o n stacks up
a g a i n s t the PRD-13 c r i t e r i a . State/AF i s p r o v i d i n g us w i t h
i n p u t which we w i l l t u r n i n t o a DC d i s c u s s i o n paper. We can
have a paper ready by mid-week. I f a DC can be scheduled, we
w i l l c o o r d i n a t e the paper and agenda w i t h J e n n i f e r Ward.
A l t e r n a t i v e l y , we can prepare a d e c i s i o n memorandum f o r Mr.
Lake.

Distribution:

FOR: W. Anthony K. Lake ( LAKE )

FOR: Samuel R. Berger ( BERGER )
FOR: Mary C. Emery ( EMERY )
FOR: Wilma G. H a l l ( HALL )
FOR: K r i s t e n K. C i c i o ( CICIO )
FOR: K a t h e r i n e M. V e i t ( VEIT )
FOR: James W.-Reed ( REED )
FOR: W i l l i a m H. I t o h ( ITOH )
FOR: K r i s t i e A. Kenney ( KENNEY )
FOR: M. Brooke Darby ( DARBY )
FOR: R i c h a r d A. Clarke ( CLARKER )
FOR: R i c h a r d L. Canas ( CANAS )
FOR: Wanda D. Lindsey ( LINDSEY ) DECLASSIFIED
FOR: Rand R. Beers ( BEERS ) PER E.O. 13526
FOR: E r i c P. Schwartz ( SCHWARTZ )

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

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FOR: Ernest J. W i l s o n I I I ( WILSON )

FOR: Susan E. Rice ( RICE )
FOR: Marcia G. Norman ( NORMAN )
FOR: 0. Ruth S t a l c u p ( STALCUP )
FOR: Sean J. Darragh ( DARRAGH )
FOR: N i c h o l a s J. Rasmussen ( RASMUSSEN )
CC: Records ( RECORDS )

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NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

02-Oct-1993 13:17 EDT

coNn DDNTIAIT-
MEMORANDUM FOR: SEE BELOW

FROM: Susan E. Rice

(RICE)

SUBJECT: RWANDA UPDATE

Sandy--

I have sent up t o you a r e v i s e d v e r s i o n o f the P r e s i d e n t ' s

l e t t e r t o M i t t e r a n d t a k i n g i n t o account t h e concerns t h a t I
u n d e r s t a n d you expressed t o Dick.

I am assuming t h a t we s t i l l p l a n t o support the Rwanda

mission, despite a rumor t h a t Frank Wisner was r e c o n s i d e r i n g
a f t e r l o o k i n g more c l o s e l y a t the l a t e s t French r e s o l u t i o n .
Please l e t us know i f our p o s i t i o n has changed.

Late y e s t e r d a y a f t e r n o o n we had a working l e v e l i n t e r a g e n c y

v i d e o c o n f e r e n c e t o t r y t o respond t o widespread concerns
about the m i l i t a r y concept o f o p e r a t i o n s f o r the Rwanda
m i s s i o n and t o reach consensus on a U.S. p o s i t i o n on the
draft resolution. While much common ground was found on the
o u t l i n e o f the r e s o l u t i o n , you should know t h a t JCS and t o a
somewhat l e s s e r e x t e n t OSD have v e r y s e r i o u s concerns about
the m i s s i o n as c u r r e n t l y conceived.

I n p a r t i c u l a r , they b e l i e v e t h a t s i n c e the m i s s i o n i s a
t r a d i t i o n a l CH. V I i n a supposedly c o m p l e t e l y p e r m i s s i v e
environment, the o p e r a t i o n s h o u l d be conducted by unarmed
m i l i t a r y observers (or a t most v e r y l i g h t l y armed observers)
r a t h e r t h a n the planned 2 i n f a n t r y b a t t a l i o n s . As the
m i s s i o n now stands, they "non-concur", and remain adamantly
opposed f o r t h i s reason.

S t a t e supports the 2 i n f a n t r y b a t t a l i o n s . I tend t o agree

w i t h JCS t h a t t h e r e i s c o n s i d e r a b l e dissonance between the
concept o f o p e r a t i o n s and the supposed p e r m i s s i v e
environment. We ought t o be a b l e t o achieve the same goals
w i t h observers i f the p a r t i e s t r u l y want peace. However, i t
w i l l be d i f f i c u l t t o move the French, t h e UN and the Rwandan
p a r t i e s i n the s h o r t time we have b e f o r e a v o t e . JCS and/or
OSD may r a i s e t h i s a t your l e v e l .

I t h i n k we ought t o t a l k t o the French and the UN i n New York

t o address these i s s u e s , p r e f e r a b l y b e f o r e a v o t e , i f JCS
insists.

Distribution:
DECLASSIFIED
FOR: Samuel R. Berger BERGER ) PER E.0.13526
CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY
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FOR: J e n n i f e r C. Ward ( WARD )

FOR: W. Anthony K. Lake ( LAKE )
FOR: Richard A. Clarke ( CLARKER )
FOR: Mary C. Emery ( EMERY )
FOR: Wilma G. H a l l ( HALL )
FOR: K r i s t e n K. C i c i o ( CICIO )
FOR: K a t h e r i n e M. V e i t ( VEIT )
FOR: James W. Reed ( REED )
FOR: W i l l i a m H. I t o h ( ITOH )
FOR: K r i s t i e A. Kenney ( KENNEY )
FOR: M. Brooke Darby ( DARBY )
CC: Records ( RECORDS )

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NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

0 4 - O c t - 1 9 9 3 1 4 : 3 4 EDT

-COHriDCNTI/tt

MEMORANDUM FOR: SEE BELOW

FROM: Susan E. Rice

(RICE)

SUBJECT: RWANDA

Sandy--

I t seems t h a t S t a t e and DOD/JCS have managed t o come t o

agreement on i n s t r u c t i o n s t o USUN t o support the Rwanda
resolution. I n s h o r t , JCS walked back from the c l i f f and
agreed t o more open-ended language about the c o m p o s i t i o n o f
the f o r c e (armed b a t t a l i o n s vs. unarmed m i l i t a r y observers)
i n exchange f o r a b s o l u t e c l a r i t y t h a t t h i s i s meant t o be a
t r a d i t i o n a l ( p a c i f i c ) Chapter VI o p e r a t i o n .

T h i s i s a good compromise. We are l o o k i n g f o r w a r d t o r a p i d l y

c l e a r i n g the x-hatched i n s t r u c t i o n c a b l e .

I have t r i e d t o t r a c k down the message from the President t o

M i t t e r r a n d . As f a r as we can t e l l , the package went t o the
P r e s i d e n t on Saturday evening, b u t has not y e t been signed
out. Kathy M i l l i s o n i s checking f u r t h e r f o r us.

Susan

Distribution:

FOR Samuel R. Berger ( BERGER )

FOR Nancy Soderberg ( SODERBERG )
FOR Mary C. Emery ( EMERY )
FOR Wilma G. H a l l ( HALL )
FOR K r i s t e n K. C i c i o ( CICIO )
FOR K a t h e r i n e M. V e i t ( VEIT )
FOR James W. Reed ( REED )
FOR W i l l i a m H. I t o h ( ITOH )
FOR K r i s t i e A. Kenney ( KENNEY )
FOR M. Brooke Darby ( DARBY )
CC: Records ( RECORDS )
CC: Richard A. Clarke ( CLARKER )
CC: Randy R. Beers ( BEERS )
CC: J e n n i f e r C. Ward ( WARD )

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INTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY
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INTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

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NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

09-Nov-1993 12:57 EDT

CONFIDENTIAL

MEMORANDUM FOR: SEE BELOW

FROM: E r i c P. Schwartz
(SCHWARTZ)

SUBJECT: Meeting With Sadako Ogata, UNHCR, Tues. a t 6:30 pm

Memorandum

November 9, 1993

To: Samuel Berger

Through: Richard Clarke

Fr: E r i c Schwartz

Concurrences by: Jane H o l l , J e n n i f e r Ward, L a r r y Rossin

Subject: Meeting t h i s evening w i t h Mrs. Sadako Ogata o f UNHCR

We expect Mrs. Ogata w i l l r a i s e UNHCR a c t i v i t i e s i n Bosnia, t h e

s i t u a t i o n i n H a i t i and, p o s s i b l y , the s i t u a t i o n i n Burundi.

I n a d d i t i o n t o d i s c u s s i n g these issues w i t h her, you w i l l want t o

c o n g r a t u l a t e her on her recent r e e l e c t i o n t o a f i v e year term and
express strong U.S. support f o r her l e a d e r s h i p at UNHCR.

I. BOSNIA

Background: Mrs. Ogata's v i s i t comes a t an i n c r e a s i n g l y

d i f f i c u l t time f o r agency operations i n Bosnia. Security
c o n d i t i o n s continue t o d e t e r i o r a t e f o r humanitarian r e l i e f
workers! EO 13526 1.4d
EO 13526 1.4d

POINTS TO MAKE/QUESTIONS TO RAISE:

UNHCR i n Bosnia: Express a p p r e c i a t i o n f o r continued UNHCR

e f f o r t s i n the r e g i o n .

W i n t e r i z a t i o n Plans: What i s Mrs. Ogata view o f

p r e p a r a t i o n s and c o o r d i n a t i o n between agencies?

EC I n i t i a t i v e t o Encourage P a r t i e s t o Guarantee Supply

Routes: How does Mrs. Ogata assess the prospects f o r t h i s
initiative?

Tuzla: Reports i n d i c a t e serious shortages i n the Tuzla

area. What are Mrs. Ogata's views on the opening o f Tuzla
a i r p o r t and under what scenario does she t h i n k t h i s might be

DECLASSIFIED IN PART
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accomplished?

[Note: UNHCR continues t o b e l i e v e the opening of the

airport i sv i t a l . Before the a i r p o r t were opened, Bosnian
forces would probably have t o abandon many o f the b u i l d i n g s
at the a i r p o r t , which they have thus f a r refused t o do.
State suggests t h a t the Europeans could handle the t e c h n i c a l
aspects o f opening the a i r p o r t . I EO 13526 1.4d
EO 13526 1.4d

Other issues t h a t might come up:

•
UNHCR APPEAL FOR BOSNIA: we are now p r e p a r i n g a response,
which should be ready w i t h i n the next seven days.

PERMITTING UNHCR TO PROVIDE HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE TO

REFUGEES IN SERBIA: The refugee p o p u l a t i o n i n Serbia i s
d i s t r e s s e d , and the Serbs are using t h i s p u b l i c l y as claimed
evidence of d i s c r i m i n a t o r y treatment o f refugees. UNHCR
urges a i d t o these p o p u l a t i o n s , as w e l l as t o other
v u l n e r a b l e groups i n Serbia. We have not taken a formal
p o s i t i o n , though Warren Zimmerman a t State supports a
c a r e f u l l y monitored and c o n t r o l l e d a i d program. Jane and I
agree w i t h Warren.

II. HAITI -- ISSUES MRS. OGATA MAY RAISE

Background: As you know, UNHCR opposes d i r e c t r e t u r n . With

other c o u n t r i e s s u p p o r t i n g the embargo w i t h t h e i r own ships, t h e
question o f t h e i r p o l i c i e s on r e t u r n may a r i s e . As a r e s u l t , t h e
UNHCR Americas D i r e c t o r a t e has requested a t e c h n i c a l meeting i n
Geneva t o discuss t h e treatment of H a i t i a n boat people by ships
of c o u n t r i e s e n f o r c i n g t h e embargo. EO 13526 1.4d

EO 13526 1.4d

I f r a i s e d , you may want t o p o i n t out t h a t --

Based on our own experience, we are very d o u b t f u l t h a t a

UNHCR meeting w i l l come up w i t h v i a b l e t h i r d country
options.

We continue t o monitor the s i t u a t i o n i n H a i t i and see no

signs o f a imminent exodus o f large numbers.

Our three refugee processing centers are o p e r a t i n g i n H a i t i

and U.S. o f f i c i a l s continue t o meet r e t u r n i n g H a i t i a n s t o
a s s i s t those who wish t o apply f o r refugee s t a t u s .

III. BURUNDI

Background: As you know, elements of the Burundi m i l i t a r y

r e c e n t l y launched an attempted coup d'etat against the
d e m o c r a t i c a l l y - e l e c t e d government o f President Ndadaye, r e s u l t i n g
i n t h e death o f the President and several members o f h i s Cabinet,
as w e l l as i n t e r - e t h n i c violence p r i m a r i l y i n the c o u n t r y s i d e .
We have no estimates o f the number k i l l e d . Some 650,000 new

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refugees have f l e d to- n e i g h b o r i n g s t a t e s , p r i m a r i l y Rwanda,

Tanzania and Z a i r e . As a r e s u l t o f t h i s c r i s i s , UNHCR has
d e p l e t e d i t s emergency fund and has now borrowed $5 m i l l i o n from
the UN's C e n t r a l Emergency Revolving Fund. UNHCR has made an
appeal f o r $17 m i l l i o n t o meet the needs o f the refugees over the
next t h r e e months. S t a t e R/P i s p r e p a r i n g an ERMA ( A f r i c a )
drawdown p r o p o s a l f o r the P r e s i d e n t f o r $20 m i l l i o n , o f which
$4.25 m i l l i o n would go t o the UNHCR f o r Burundian refugees.

POINTS TO MAKE:

We want t o be as h e l p f u l as p o s s i b l e i n t h i s h u m a n i t a r i a n
c r i s i s and encourage UNHCR's e f f o r t s as w e l l as those o f the
ICRC and WFP;
•

AID's O f f i c e o f D i s a s t e r A s s i s t a n c e has a l r e a d y approved

c o n t r i b u t i o n s o f $50,000 as a r e s u l t o f our Ambassadors'
having d e c l a r e d d i s a s t e r s i n Rwanda and B u r u n d i ;

We are working on a drawdown o f monies from the P r e s i d e n t ' s

emergency fund t o p r o v i d e s u b s t a n t i a l f u n d i n g f o r your
appeal.

Distribution:

FOR: Samuel R. Berger ( BERGER )

FOR: Mary C. Emery ( EMERY )
FOR: Wilma G. H a l l ( HALL )
FOR: K r i s t e n K. C i c i o ( CICIO )
FOR: K a t h e r i n e M. V e i t ( VEIT )
FOR: James W. Reed ( REED )
FOR: W i l l i a m H. I t o h ( ITOH )
FOR: K r i s t i e A. Kenney ( KENNEY )
FOR: M. Brooke Darby ( DARBY )
CC Records ( RECORDS )
CC Richard E. Feinberg ( FEINBERG )
CC Lawrence G. Rossin ( ROSSIN )
CC Barbro A. O w e n s - K i r k p a t r i c k ( OWENS )
CC J e n n i f e r C. Ward ( WARD )
CC Jane E. H o l l ( HOLL )
CC Jenonne R. Walker ( WALKER )
CC Richard A. C l a r k e ( CLARKER )
CC Richard L. Canas ( CANAS )
CC Wanda D. Lindsey ( LINDSEY )
CC Rand R. Beers ( BEERS )
CC E r i c P. Schwartz ( SCHWARTZ )
CC Ernest J. Wilson I I I ( WILSON )
CC Susan E. Rice ( RICE )
CC Marcia G. Norman ( NORMAN )
CC 0. Ruth S t a l c u p ( STALCUP )
CC Sean J. Darragh ( DARRAGH )
CC N i c h o l a s J. Rasmussen ( RASMUSSEN

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•
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NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

13-Dec-1993 22:01 EDT

CQWTIDEMTIAti

MEMORANDUM FOR: SEE BELOW

FROM: Susan E. Rice

(RICE)

SUBJECT: Upcoming Issues i n UNSC

OMNIBUS PEACEKEEPING E-Mail

INFORMATION:

The S e c u r i t y C o u n c i l i s expected w i t h i n the next week t o

renew r o u t i n e l y a number o f peacekeeping mandates:

Cyprus

The UNSC w i l l vote t h i s week another 6 month renewal o f

UNFICYP. The l a s t renewal came i n the summer as the
Canadians were l e a v i n g and a f t e r the Russians i n i t i a l l y
vetoed the r e s o l u t i o n f o r p r o c e d u r a l reasons. Today, t h e
A r g e n t i n e s have r e p l a c e d the Canadians, and the Russians seem
s a t i s f i e d on the i s s u e . The U.S. and a l l i e s have a l s o
succeeded i n g e t t i n g Greece and Cyprus t o p i c k up over 50% o f
the cost o f the o p e r a t i o n , thus r e d u c i n g the U.S. share t o
r o u g h l y $7 m i l l i o n / p a .

This week's vote should be an easy, pro forma e x t e n s i o n . The

d r a f t r e s o l u t i o n i s a good one, s t a t i n g t h a t the s t a t u s quo
i s unacceptable and c a l l s f o r a thorough review o f the f u t u r e
r o l e o f the UN i n Cyprus i n February.

Angola

The UNSC w i l l vote by the 15th t o extend UNAVEM's mandate a t

c u r r e n t s t r e n g t h f o r 3 months. As J e n n i f e r has informed you,
the U.S t a b l e d a d r a f t r e s o l u t i o n t h a t has been c o n s i d e r e d by
the P-5. USUN i s t r y i n g t o ensure t h a t i t remains balanced
to put a p p r o p r i a t e p o l i t i c a l pressure on b o t h s i d e s .

Liberia

We are a t the 3 month stage when the UNSC must decide t o

c o n t i n u e the m i s s i o n i n L i b e r i a f o r the d u r a t i o n o f i t s seven
month mandate. This i s v e r y s i m i l a r .to the p r o c e d u r a l issue
we faced l a s t week on H a i t i . Again, t h i s c o n t i n u a t i o n can be
achieved w i t h o u t any f o r m a l r e s o l u t i o n , o n l y a l e t t e r from
UNSC Pres. t o SYG or a statement. Not expected t o be a b i g
deal.

Rwanda

There are 2 Rwanda m i s s i o n s - - 80 border m o n i t o r s l o o k i n g f o r

arms t r a f f i c on the Rwanda/Uganda border and-a.^larger

•LINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY PER EoOo 13526

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peacekeeping f o r c e i n K i g a l i . The upcoming renewal ( r e q u i r e d

by the 22nd) w i l l g i v e the Ugandan border m i s s i o n i t s second
6-month mandate. H a p p i l y , t h e two m i s s i o n s , w h i l e f o r m a l l y
separate f o r p o l i t i c a l reasons, are w e l l - i n t e g r a t e d i n terms
of command. B e t t e r y e t , a f t e r Dec. 22 they w i l l have a
s i n g l e budget, a l l o w i n g us t o c a p t u r e a l l p o s s i b l e economies
of s c a l e .

ACTION:

South A f r i c a : How t o a u t h o r i z e and fund t h e a n t i c i p a t e d UN

e l e c t i o n monitoring mission.

Normally, s t r a i g h t e l e c t i o n m o n i t o r i n g (w/o peacekeepers) i s

a UNGA a c t i v i t y p a i d f o r on the r e g u l a r budget, f o r which US
pays 25%. But a c c o r d i n g t o USUN, the South A f r i c a n p a r t i e s ,
the F r o n t l i n e S t a t e s and many o t h e r s want the UNSC t o mandate
the South A f r i c a m i s s i o n , because the UNGA can't move q u i c k l y
and doesn't c a r r y the same p o l i t i c a l w e i g h t .

The problem i s t h a t i f the UNSC mandates i t , the UNGA (which

c o n t r o l s the UN purse s t r i n g s ) i s l i k e l y t o i n s i s t t h a t i t be
p a i d f o r on the peacekeeping budget (we pay 31.7%). Funding
non-peacekeeping on the Peacekeeping budget would set a
t e r r i b l e precedent.

ISSUE: I f you agree, J e n n i f e r and I w i l l ask S t a t e t o d r a f t

a cable t o USUN, i n s t r u c t i n g them t o submit q u i c k l y a
s t r a t e g y f o r speedy UN a c t i o n on South A f r i c a p a i d f o r on the
r e g u l a r budget. We propose t o g i v e them a r e l a t i v e l y s h o r t
time frame i n which t o implement t h a t s t r a t e g y .

I f USUN f a i l s , I t h i n k we w i l l need a DC i n e a r l y Jan. t o

decide whether the U.S. wants t o work t h r o u g h the UNGA, which
may be opposed by the p a r t i e s and slow down deployment, o r ;
whether we want t o pay f o r t h i s on the peacekeeping budget,
which c o u l d r a i s e s e r i o u s q u e s t i o n s on t h e H i l l and would set
a dangerous precedent.

Distribution:

FOR: W. Anthony K. Lake ( LAKE )

FOR: Samuel R. Berger ( BERGER )
FOR: Nancy Soderberg ( SODERBERG )
FOR: Mary C. Emery ( EMERY )
FOR: Wilma G. H a l l ( HALL )
FOR: K r i s t e n K. C i c i o ( CICIO )
FOR: K a t h e r i n e M. V e i t ( VEIT )
FOR: James W. Reed ( REED )
FOR: W i l l i a m H. I t o h ( ITOH )
FOR: K r i s t i e A. Kenney ( KENNEY )
FOR: M. Brooke Darby ( DARBY )
FOR: Cathy M i l l i s o n ( MILLISON )
CC: Records ( RECORDS )
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cc Randy R. Beers ( BEERS )

J e n n i f e r C. Ward ( WARD )
CC
Jane E. H o l l { HOLL )
CC
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NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

08-Apr-1994 1 0 : 2 4 EDT

- I J U I I L ' I U L N I IJ'iL

MEMORANDUM FOR: SEE BELOW

FROM: E r i c P. Schwartz
(SCHWARTZ)

SUBJECT: MONIQUE MUJAWAMARIYA OF RWANDA

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS NOT TO BE RELEASED TO THE PRESS OR

DISCUSSED PUBLICLY AT THIS POINT.

I r e p o r t e d t o you yesterday t h a t Monique Mujawamariya, t h e

Rwandan human r i g h t s a c t i v i s t who met t h e P r e s i d e n t , appeared t o
have been k i l l e d . I c h a r a c t e r i z e d t h e r e p o r t as unconfirmed.

(The r e p o r t was based on t h e f a c t t h a t Monique had been t a l k i n g

by phone w i t h a f r i e n d i n t h e U.S. when s o l d i e r s who were k i l l i n g
her neighbors approached her home. The phone went dead and
f u r t h e r a t t e m p t s t o reach Monique were u n s u c c e s s f u l , w i t h men
answering t h e phone and hanging up. [There i s a Washington Post
account o f these events on today's Op Ed page.])

T h a n k f u l l y , Monique appears not t o have been k i l l e d . She

a p p a r e n t l y f l e d her home and h i d i n t h e bush. She i s now back a t
her home and our Embassy i f t r y i n g t o f i g u r e out how we might
h e l p i n g e t t i n g her t o a safe p l a c e .

THIS NEW INFORMATION IS NOT TO BE RELEASED TO THE PRESS OR

DISCUSSED PUBLICLY AT THIS POINT.

Our Embassy's Task Force i n K i g a l i b e l i e v e s s t r o n g l y t h a t

Monique's chances o f s u r v i v a l w i l l be i n c r e a s e d i f she i s
b e l i e v e d t o be dead, as Rwandan s o l d i e r s c o n t i n u e t o l o o k f o r
her.

Distribution:

FOR: W. Anthony K. Lake ( LAKE )

FOR: Samuel R. Berger ( BERGER )
CC- Records ( RECORDS )
CC Donald K. S t e i n b e r g ( STEINBERG )
CC MacArthur DeShazer ( DESHAZER )
CC Nancy Soderberg ( SODERBERG )
CC M. Brooke Darby ( DARBY )
CC Mary C. Emery ( EMERY )
CC Wilma G. H a l l ( HALL )
CC K r i s t e n K. C i c i o ( CICIO )
CC K a t h e r i n e M. V e i t ( VEIT )
CC W i l l i a m H. I t o h ( ITOH )
CC K r i s t i e A. Kenney ( KENNEY ) PERE.©. 13526
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CC Neal S. Wolin ( WOLIN )
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CC R i c h a r d L. Canas ( CANAS )
CC Wanda D. L i n d s e y ( LINDSEY )
CC Rand R. Beers ( BEERS )
CC E r i c P. Schwartz ( SCHWARTZ )
CC Ernest J. Wilson I I I ( WILSON )
CC - Susan E. Rice ( RICE )
CC Marcia G. Norman ( NORMAN )
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CC Sean J. Darragh ( DARRAGH )

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NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

09-Apr-1994 16:38 EDT

•OECRET

MEMORANDUM FOR: SEE BELOW

FROM": Richard A. Clarke

(CLARKER)

SUBJECT: RWANDA: NEXT STEPS, FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND

With dawn.on Sunday, convoys two and t h r e e w i l l leave t h e

Danish M i s s i o n 2 kms from the border and d r i v e i n t o Burundi.
During t h e n i t e t h e USMC f o r c e i n Buj w i l l r u n h o u r l y r a d i o
checks on t h e s t a t u s o f t h e convoys. That w i l l leave us w i t h
the f o l l o w i n g q u e s t i o n s :

— h o w do we g e t t h e remaining Americans out?

--do we h e l p the Belgians get i n ? ( n o t e : The Rwandan

r e b e l s are r e p o r t e d l y r p t r e p o r t e d l y moving toward K i g a l i . )

--do we p u l l t h e UN f o r c e out?

1. G e t t i n g the Americans o u t

The embassy may p u t t o g e t h e r another convoy or may p u t t h e

Americans o u t t h e French f l i g h t s o u t . The f i r s t French f l i g h t
out l e f t l a t e on Saturday.

2. G e t t i n g t h e Belgians i n

There a r e 2000 B e l g i a n c i t i z e n s s t i l l a t r i s k . F i g h t i n g i s
l i k e l y t o e s c a l a t e . Thus, once we know t h a t our c i t i z e n s are
safe, we should work w i t h the French t o see i f t h e y can
insure the safety of f l i g h t s i n t o K i g a l i . I f t h e French do
secure t h e a i r b a s e area, we p r o b a b l y s h o u l d f l y the Belgians
in.

3. T e r m i n a t i n g t h e UN Force

We make a l o t o f noise about t e r m i n a t i n g UN f o r c e s t h a t

a r e n ' t w o r k i n g . W e l l , few c o u l d be as c l e a r l y n o t w o r k i n g .
We should work w i t h t h e Frecnh t o g a i n a consensus t o
t e r m i n a t e t h e UN m i s s i o n .

Distribution:

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FOR: MacArthur DeShazer ( DESHAZER )
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FOR: Wilma G. H a l l ( HALL )
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FOR: M. Brooke Darby ( DARBY )
FOR: Cathy M i l l i s o n ( MILLISON )
FOR: James W. Reed ( REED )
FOR: Neal S. Wolin ( WOLIN )
FOR: R i c h a r d A. C l a r k e ( CLARKER )
FOR: Richard L. Canas ( CANAS )
FOR: Wanda D. Lindsey ( LINDSEY )
FOR: Rand R. Beers ( BEERS )
FOR: E r i c P. Schwartz ( SCHWARTZ )
FOR: Ernest J. Wilson I I I ( WILSON )
FOR: Susan E. Rice ( RICE )
FOR: Marcia G. Norman ( NORMAN )
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NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

11-Apr-1994 14:41 EDT

-OOlfTIDDNTIAL

MEMORANDUM FOR: SEE BELOW

FROM: E r i c P. Schwartz
(SCHWARTZ)

SUBJECT: MONIQUE MUJAWAMARIYA OF RWANDA

According t o H o l l y B u r k h a l t e r o f Human Rights Watch, Monique Mujawamariya -- t h e

Rwandan human r i g h t s a c t i v i s t who met t h e P r e s i d e n t -- i s now safe and i n
Nairobi.

More d e t a i l s t o come as I r e c e i v e them.

Distribution:

FOR: W. Anthony K. Lake ( LAKE )

CC: Records ( RECORDS )
CC: Records ( RECORDS )
CC: Morton H. H a l p e r i n ( HALPERIN )
CC: Donald K. S t e i n b e r g ( STEINBERG )
CC: Mary C. Emery ( EMERY )
CC: Wilma G. H a l l ( HALL )
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CC: K a t h e r i n e M. V e i t ( VEIT )
CC: W i l l i a m H. I t o h ( ITOH )
CC: K r i s t i e A. Kenney ( KENNEY )
CC: M. Brooke Darby ( DARBY )
CC: Cathy M i l l i s o n ( MILLISON )
CC: James W. Reed ( REED )
CC: Neal S. Wolin ( WOLIN )
CC: Richard A. Clarke ( CLARKER )
CC: Richard L. Canas ( CANAS )
CC: Wanda D. Lindsey ( LINDSEY )
CC: Rand R. Beers ( BEERS )
CC: E r i c P. Schwartz ( SCHWARTZ )
CC: Ernest J. Wilson I I I ( WILSON )
CC: Susan E. Rice ( RICE )
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NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

l l - A p r - 1 9 9 4 12:45 EDT

r r n n IT T

MEMORANDUM FOR: SEE BELOW

FROM: Richard A. C l a r k e
(CLARKER)

SUBJECT: RWANDA: DECISION MAY BE REQUIRED

TO': TL/S.RB

FM: RAC

RE: RWANDA

The UN i s p l a n n i n g t o p u l l o u t t h e UN peacekeeping f o r c e ,
a c c o r d i n g t o USUN.

The UN may r p t may ask f o r US a i r l i f t t o get the force out

fast.

Meanwhile, t h e French are b e g i n n i n g t o p u l l t h e i r f o r c e o u t

and t h e Belgians a r e c o n t i n u i n g t o i n s e r t t r o o p s .

I f t h e UN asks f o r h e l p g e t t i n g o u t , USAF t r a n s p o r t s s t a n d i n g
by i n Kenya c o u l d be a v a i l a b l e .

ACTION REQUESTED:

Do you have any guidance f o r us on how we should respond t o a

UN request?

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FOR: MacArthur DeShazer ( DESHAZER )
FOR: Mary C. Emery ( EMERY )
FOR: Wilma G. H a l l ( HALL )
FOR: K r i s t e n K. C i c i o ( CICIO )
FOR: K a t h e r i n e M. V e i t ( VEIT )
FOR: W i l l i a m H. I t o h ( ITOH )
FOR: K r i s t i e A. Kenney ( KENNEY )
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FOR: Neal S. Wolin ( WOLIN )
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CC: Richard A. Clarke ( CLARKER )
CC: Richard L. Canas ( CANAS )
CC: Wanda D. Lindsey ( LINDSEY )
CC:
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E r i c P. Schwartz
(
(
BEERS )
SCHWARTZ • )..
PER E.(X 13526
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cc Ernest J. Wilson III ( WILSON )

CC Susan E. Rice ( RICE )
CC Marcia G. Norman ( NORMAN )
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CC

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NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

l l - A p r - 1 9 9 4 15:03 EDT

GOHFIDEMTIAb

MEMORANDUM FOR: SEE BELOW

FROM: E r i c P. Schwartz
(SCHWARTZ) 3^
SUBJECT: MONIQUE MUJAWAMARIYA: FOLLOW-UP MESSAGE

Regarding t h e a t t a c h e d E m a i l on Monique Mujawamariya (which you should have

already received):

PLEASE DO NOT REVEAL THE NEW INFORMATION ABOUT MONIQUE TO THE PRESS OR TO THE
PUBLIC AT THIS POINT.

Distribution:

FOR: W. Anthony K. Lake ( LAKE )

CC: Records ( RECORDS )
CC: Donald K. S t e i n b e r g ( STEINBERG )
CC: MacArthur DeShazer ( DESHAZER )
CC: Mary C. Emery ( EMERY )
CC: Wilma G. H a l l ( HALL )
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•

•
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

l l - A p r - 1 9 9 4 14:41 EDT

CQMFIDEMTIMJ

MEMORANDUM FOR: SEE BELOW

FROM: E r i c P. Schwartz
(SCHWARTZ)

SUBJECT: MONIQUE MUJAWAMARIYA OF RWANDA a

According t o H o l l y B u r k h a l t e r o f Human Rights Watch, Monique Mujawamariya - - the

Rwandan human r i g h t s a c t i v i s t who met t h e P r e s i d e n t -- i s now safe and i n
Nairobi.

More d e t a i l s t o come as I r e c e i v e them.

Distribution:

FOR: W. Anthony K. Lake ( LAKE )

CC: Records ( RECORDS )
CC: Records ( RECORDS )
CC: Morton H. H a l p e r i n ( HALPERIN )
CC: Donald K. S t e i n b e r g ( STEINBERG )
CC: Mary C. Emery ( EMERY )
CC: Wilma G. H a l l ( HALL )
CC: K r i s t e n K. C i c i o ( CICIO )
CC: K a t h e r i n e M. V e i t ( VEIT )
CC: W i l l i a m H. I t o h ( ITOH )
CC: K r i s t i e A. Kenney ( KENNEY )
CC: M. Brooke Darby ( DARBY )
CC: Cathy M i l l i s o n ( MILLISON )
CC: James W. Reed ( REED )
CC: Neal S. Wolin ( WOLIN )
CC: Richard A. C l a r k e ( CLARKER )
CC: Richard L. Canas ( CANAS )
CC: Wanda D. Lindsey ( LINDSEY )
CC: Rand R. Beers ( BEERS )
CC: E r i c P. Schwartz ( SCHWARTZ )
CC: Ernest J. W i l s o n I I I ( WILSON )
CC: Susan E. Rice ( RICE )
CC: Marcia G. Norman ( NORMAN )
CC: 0. Ruth S t a l c u p ( STALCUP )
CC: Sean J. Darragh ( DARRAGH )

INTON LIBRARY PHOTOCORY . :

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NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

l l - A p r - 1 9 9 4 17:22 EDT

MEMORANDUM FOR: SEE BELOW

FROM: Mary C. Emery

(EMERY)

SUBJECT: RE: RWANDA: DECISION MAY BE REQUIRED

Tony Lake has read e-mail and responded as f o l l o w s :

Next t o A c t i o n Requested: " I n c l i n e d t o help. But d e c i s i o n

. should go t o P r i n c i p a l s . "

Distribution:

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CC: Sean J. Darragh ( DARRAGH )
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CC: Marcia G. Norman ( NORMAN )
CC: Susan E. Rice ( RICE )
CC: Ernest J. Wilson I I I ( WILSON )
CC: E r i c P. Schwartz ( SCHWARTZ )
CC: Rand R. Beers ( BEERS )
CC: Wanda D. Lindsey ( LINDSEY )
CC: Richard L. Canas ( CANAS )
CC: Richard A. C l a r k e ( CLARKER )
CC: Records ( RECORDS )
CC: Neal S. Wolin ( WOLIN )
CC: James W. Reed ( REED )
CC: Cathy M i l l i s o n ( MILLISON )
CC: M. Brooke Darby ( DARBY )
CC: K r i s t i e A. Kenney ( KENNEY )
CC: W i l l i a m H. I t o h ( ITOH )
CC: K a t h e r i n e M. V e i t ( VEIT )
CC: K r i s t e n K. C i c i o ( CICIO )
CC: Wilma G. H a l l ( HALL )
CC: MacArthur DeShazer ( DESHAZER )
CC: Donald K. S t e i n b e r g ( STEINBERG )
CC: Records ( RECORDS )

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; ^ UI.IIN i uiN LIBRARY PHOTOCORY

RWANDA: Tutsi Military Poised To Attack

The Rwandan military and Tutsi forces from the Rwandan Patriotic Front
apparently are adhering to a cease-fire as the evacuation of foreign nationals
proceeds, but at least 4,000 heavily armed RPF rebels continue to advance
on the capital. Leaders of the RPF say they will let French and Belgian
forces assist in removing their nationals but have threatened to attack the
French forces if they intervene for the government's side. Rebel leaders also
rejected talks with the new Hutu interim government, which they accuse of
killing Tutsis and undermining ethnic reconciliation.

— The RPF almost certainly intends to seize Kigali but is holding

back until most expatriates are evacuated. It would be hard
pressed to control the city, however, because armed militias and
Hutu hardliners there vehemently oppose any sharing of power
with Tutsis. (€ NP)

The Hutu-dominated security forces are divided regionally between

southerners and northerners, and clashes have been reported between Army
and Gendarmerie forces, according to a foreign government service. Armed
Hutu militias continue to rampage throughout the city and to threaten
Belgian and French citizens. Neither Paris nor Brussels wants to be drawn
into Rwanda's civil war, and they probably will withdraw their troops as
soon as the evacuation is complete.

— A senior UN official privately has told Belgian, French, and US

officials that the Secretary General believes the lightly armed UN
force of 2,500, which already has suffered 16 killed, must be
evacuated unless there is an effective cease-fire. It probably will
continue to be attacked if it remains in Kigali after the evacuation.
(S-NF)

A revived civil war in Rwanda could intensify the volatility of Burundi,

where up to 150,000 people reportedly were killed after the Hutu president
was assassinated last fall. In a move to support Tutsis in Rwanda, the
Tutsi military could try to take over the Hutu-dominated government.
(€-NF) -CM6.0.13526.Iia)

DOWNGRADED FROM
TOP SECRET TO SECRET
DECLASSIFIED IN PART
PER E. O. 13526

<p Secret
SC 01677/94
S
-./"4"-W. ^ > 11 April 1994

LINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCC»?Y . i

Top Secret
[EQjl52ejLSc]

Balance of Military Forces in Rwanda

Rwandan Security Forces

Army: 31,000 troops . .. about 4,000 in Kigali. . . troubled by low morale, poor combat
record, has depended on French forces and logistics.

EO 13526 1.4c

Interim Armv Chief of Staff: Colonel Gatsinzi. . . commander of noncommissioned

officers training school.

Gendarmerie (paramilitary police): 7,200 . . . 2,000 in Kigali.

II
EO 13526 1.4c

Rwandan Patriotic Front

Forces: 20,000 nationwide .. . has controlled northern territory since 1990 invasion
from Uganda . . . UN escorted 600-man RPF security force to Kigali in December . .
highly motivated . . . effectively uses artillery, heavy mortars, recoilless rifles.

EO 13526 1.4c

EO 13526 3.5c

Top Secret
DECLASSIFIED IN PART
SC 01677/04
PER E. O. 13526
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NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

12-Apr-1994 09:10 EDT

CONFIDENTIAL

MEMORANDUM FOR:
Jane E. H o l l ( HOLL )

FROM: James W. Reed

(REED)

SUBJECT: S t r i k e Two

This i s t h e second erroneous r e p o r t on t h i s (TL was PO'd when he

passed t h e f i r s t r e p o r t t o t h e Pres, o n l y t o f i n d o u t i t was
wrong) . . .

CC: Records ( RECORDS )

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•
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

l l - A p r - 1 9 9 4 20:26 EDT

CONFIDCNTIAL

MEMORANDUM FOR: SEE BELOW

FROM: E r i c P. Schwartz
(SCHWARTZ)

SUBJECT: MONIQUE MUJAWAMARIA: CORRECTED INFORMATION

I r e p o r t e d t o you today t h a t Human Rights Watch had been i n f o r m e d t h a t

Monique was safe and i n N a i r o b i . State had a l s o r e c e i v e d t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n
from Human R i g h t s Watch, which was based on a r e p o r t p r o v i d e d i n f o r m a l l y by
a UN o f f i c i a l i n New York.

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY PERM. ™

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U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h e i n f o r m a t i o n was i n a c c u r a t e -- t h e UN o f f i c i a l a p p a r e n t l y
confused Monique w i t h another Rwandan.

We do n o t have c u r r e n t i n f o r m a t i o n about Monique. We b e l i e v e our Embassy's

l a s t c o n t a c t w i t h her was e a r l y Sunday morning i n Rwanda. According t o
S t a t e , our DCM gave i n f o r m a t i o n on Monique's whereabouts t o t h e ICRC and
asked t h a t t h e y c o o r d i n a t e w i t h UNAMIR i n t r y i n g t o g e t her t o a p l a c e o f
safety.

I'm t e r r i b l y s o r r y f o r t h e c o n f u s i o n on t h i s . I w i l l c o n t i n u e t o f o l l o w up
with State.

Under these circumstances, Monique's s a f e t y i n Rwanda i s again enhanced by

the p e r c e p t i o n t h a t she has been k i l l e d (as t h i s p e r c e p t i o n w i l l discourage
s o l d i e r s from l o o k i n g f o r h e r ) . Thus news o f her b e i n g a l i v e should not be
d i s c u s s e d p u b l i c l y o r w i t h t h e press.

Distribution:

FOR: W. Anthony K. Lake ( LAKE )

CC Records ( RECORDS )
CC MacArthur DeShazer ( DESHAZER )
CC Donald K. S t e i n b e r g ( STEINBERG )
CC Mary C. Emery ( EMERY )
CC Wilma G. H a l l ( HALL )
CC K r i s t e n K. C i c i o ( CICIO )
CC K a t h e r i n e M. V e i t ( VEIT )
CC W i l l i a m H. I t o h ( ITOH )
CC K r i s t i e A. Kenney ( KENNEY )
CC M. Brooke Darby ( DARBY )
CC Cathy M i l l i s o n ( MILLISON )
CC James W. Reed ( REED )
CC Neal S. Wolin ( WOLIN )
CC Richard A. C l a r k e ( CLARKER )
CC Richard L. Canas ( CANAS )
CC Wanda D. Lindsey ( LINDSEY )
CC Rand R. Beers ( BEERS )
CC E r i c P. Schwartz ( SCHWARTZ )
CC Ernest J. Wilson I I I ( WILSON )
CC Susan E. Rice ( RICE )
CC Marcia G. Norman ( NORMAN )
CC 0. Ruth S t a l c u p ( STALCUP )
CC Sean J. Darragh ( DARRAGH )

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

 CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

EO 13526 1.4c upr-

•Zt-CfcC- C<4XA.U jsu+^tfy ats^fhiu^

DECLASSIFIED IN PART
PERE. O. 13526
 ^ ^ 7^ . -fg?-

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

F:\Email\Data_Source\Al\Record\CD001\apr94\035942.html Page 1 of 2

NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

12-Apr-1994 18:48 EDT

•6DCRET

MEMORANDUM FOR: SEE BELOW

FROM: Neal S. Wolin

(WOLIN)

SUBJECT: C-P-L l u n c h agenda — 13 A p r i l

Below i s a t e n t a t i v e agenda f o r tomorrow's C-P-L l u n c h . Where

i n d i c a t e d , please p r o v i d e me, by not l a t e r than 10:15 a.m.
Wednesday., a s h o r t background paper ( v i a e-mail) f o r Tony's use.

Lake:

o Update on E f f o r t s t o Defeat Exon-Grassley -- w i l l discuss next

steps on s t r a t e g y f o r FY 95 budget conference. (Jeremy Rosner/Bob
B e l l please p r o v i d e background.)

o Bosnia A u t h o r i z a t i o n R e s o l u t i o n -- w i l l d i s c u s s a d v i s a b i l i t y o f
seeking c o n g r e s s i o n a l a u t h o r i z a t i o n f o r use o f f o r c e i n Bosnia.
(Alan Kreczko/Jeremy Rosner please p r o v i d e background.)

Christopher:

o R e v i t a l i z i n g Nunn-Lugar -- w i l l ask S e c r e t a r y Perry t o become

more engaged i n seeking a d d i t i o n a l Nunn-Lugar funds. (Rose
G o t t e m o e l l e r please p r o v i d e background.)

o Bosnia Update -- w i l l c o n s u l t on where we are on Gorazde,

d i s c u s s i o n s i n Sarajevo, e t c . (Jenonne Walker/Jane H o l l please
p r o v i d e background.)

o Skrunda -- w i l l answer some o f S e c r e t a r y Perry's q u e s t i o n s from

l a s t week's lunch r e g a r d i n g a v a i l a b i l i t y o f S t a t e funds f o r
Skrunda dismantlement. (John B e y r l e please p r o v i d e background.)

Perry:

o Peacekeeping Funding -- w i l l d i s c u s s next steps on d e a l i n g w i t h

a r r e a r a g e s and PDD-13 f u n d i n g issues a f t e r Monday's meeting w i t h
the P r e s i d e n t . (Dick Clarke/Susan Rice please p r o v i d e background
as a p p r o p r i a t e . )

o U.S. Support f o r Evacuation o f A l l i e s ' N a t i o n a l s from Rwanda --

w i l l ask what support the USG ought t o g i v e the French and
Belgians i n e v a c u a t i n g t h e i r n a t i o n a l s from Rwanda. (Dick
Clarke/Don S t e i n b e r g please p r o v i d e background.)

o North Korea — w i l l discuss plans f o r h i s impending t r i p t o

Asia. (Dan Poneman/Stanley Roth please p r o v i d e background.)

Distribution:
FEM M . 13526
_ JINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY
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FOR: Jane E. H o l l ( HOLL )

FOR: Daniel F r i e d ( FRIED )
FOR: MacArthur DeShazer ( DESHAZER )
FOR: Rose E. G o t t e m o e l l e r ( GOTTEMOELLER
FOR: Randy R. Beers ( BEERS )
FOR: Susan E. Rice ( RICE )
FOR: John R. B e y r l e ( BEYRLE )
FOR: Robert G. B e l l ( BELL )
FOR: Richard E. Feinberg ( FEINBERG )
FOR: R. Nicholas Burns ( BURNS )
FOR: M a r t i n S. Indyk ( INDYK )
FOR: George J. Tenet ( TENET )
FOR: Jenonne R. Walker ( WALKER )
FOR: E i l e e n B. Claussen { CLAUSSEN )
FOR: Richard A. C l a r k e ( CLARKER )
FOR: Kent M. Wiedemann ( WIEDEMANN )
FOR J e n n i f e r C. Ward ( WARD )
FOR: Alan J. Kreczko ( KRECZKO )
FOR: Jeremy D. Rosner ( ROSNER )
FOR: Donald K. S t e i n b e r g ( STEINBERG )
FOR: Daniel B. Poneman ( PONEMAN )
FOR: Richard S c h i f t e r ( SCHIFTER )
CC Records ( RECORDS )
CC Nancy Soderberg ( SODERBERG )
CC W i l l i a m H. I t o h ( ITOH )
CC K r i s t i e A. Kenney ( KENNEY )
CC James W. Reed ( REED )

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1
^ L I ^ N ^ K A & Y BHOTOjSOP Y ,.41 .
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NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

19-Apr-1994 13:27 EDT

-GONFI.&ENTIAL

MEMORANDUM FOR:
Susan E. Rice ( RICE )
Donald K. S t e i n b e r g ( STEINBERG )

FROM: E r i c P. Schwartz
(SCHWARTZ)

SUBJECT: PULL-OUT OF UNAMIR

I j u s t heard from Human Rights Watch, p l e a d i n g t h a t we oppose a q u i c k UNAMIR

p u l l - o u t from Rwanda. Human Rights Watch seemed t o i n d i c a t e t h a t UNAMIR i s
p r o t e c t i n g thousands (25,000?) Rwandans and i f t h e y p u l l o u t , t h e Rwandans w i l l
q u i c k l y become v i c t i m s o f genocide.

Is t h i s t r u e ? I f so, s h o u l d n ' t i t be a major f a c t o r i n f o r m i n g h i g h - l e v e l

decision-making on t h i s issue? Has i t been?

I am e x p e c t i n g t o r e c e i v e a f a x on t h i s s h o r t l y and w i l l see t h a t you g e t i t .

Eric

CC: Records ( RECORDS )

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DECLASSIFIED
PER E 0.13526o

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

 CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

^40

4^0 - Betyfczus c^(-

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 CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

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NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

25-Apr-1994 10:51 EDT

oonriDCMTinr

MEMORANDUM FOR: SEE BELOW

FROM: Donald K. S t e i n b e r g
(STEINBERG)

SUBJECT: USG A c t i o n s on Rwanda

S t o r i e s t h r o u g h o u t t h e weekend seem t o suggest t h a t we are s i t t i n g

on our hands w h i l e t h e b l o o d - l e t t i n g i n Rwanda rages. I t i s true
t h a t our c a p a c i t y t o end t h e k i l l i n g i s p a i n f u l l y l i m i t e d , b u t we
are: u n d e r t a k i n g a s e r i e s o f measures.

I t was our i n i t i a t i v e t o ask r e g i o n a l l e a d e r s i n Tanzania and

Uganda (now supported by t h e UN and OAU S e c r e t a r y General
Salim Salim) t o draw t o g e t h e r t h e l e a d e r s o f t h e Rwandan army
and t h e RPF t o seek a cease f i r e and r e - a s s e r t t h e Arusha
process. Our Ambassadors i n Tanzania (De Vos) and Uganda
(Carson) have been deeply i n v o l v e d i n these s o - f a r l a r g e l y
u n s u c c e s s f u l e f f o r t s . We expect t o send Ambassador Rawson
back o u t t o t h e r e g i o n s h o r t l y t o f a c i l i t a t e t h i s process.

Whereas we s t r o n g l y supported e f f o r t s t o safeguard t h e l i v e s

of t h e U.N. peacekeepers, we a l s o i n s i s t e d t h a t t h e draw-down
o f t h e peacekeepers n o t be accomplished i n a way t h a t p u t a t
r i s k t h e l i v e s o f Rwandans under t h e i r p r o t e c t i o n .

F o l l o w i n g Tony's meeting on F r i d a y w i t h Rwandan human r i g h t s

m o n i t o r Monique Mujawamarija, we i s s u e d a tough statement
( a t t a c h e d ) condemning t h e c o n t i n u e d v i o l e n c e and c a l l i n g on
b o t h s i d e s t o stop t h e k i l l i n g , w i t h t h e s p e c i f i c mention o f
names o f t h e leaders o f Rwandan armed f o r c e s ( t o p u t them on
n o t i c e t h a t we are watching them). We i n s t r u c t e d our envoy t o
the Arusha t a l k s t o read t h e statement t o t h e Government and
RPF r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s t h e r e . He says t h a t when he read t h e
statement, t h e RPF r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s s m i l e d , t h e Government
representatives "blinked."

We are about t o announce new h u m a n i t a r i a n a s s i s t a n c e funds

($15 m i l l i o n ) f o r Burundi and Rwanda.

We have c o n t a c t e d DOD t o see i f any o f t h e U.S. m i l i t a r y

t r a i n e r s who worked w i t h Rwandan government f o r c e s i n t h e past
b e l i e v e t h e y have c o n t a c t s w i t h i n Rwanda t h a t may be o f use.

These e f f o r t s , o f course, are n o t enough. I hope t o s i t down today

w i t h Ambassador Rawson t o discuss o t h e r p o s s i b l e a c t i o n s ,
e s p e c i a l l y i n terms o f g r e a t e r involvement f o r o t h e r A f r i c a n
l e a d e r s i n t h e process. We w i l l a l s o d i s c u s s what we might do i n
Burundi t o keep i t from going t h e same r o u t e , e s p e c i a l l y i n l i g h t
of t h i s morning's f a i l e d coup. State i s h o l d i n g a working group on
Rwanda/Burundi tomorrow a f t e r n o o n . I ' l l keep you posted.
•

F E R E 0 1 3 5 2 6
M S N LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY -I ° °
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NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

26-Apr-1994 18:10 EDT

•DCRCT

MEMORANDUM FOR: SEE BELOW

FROM: Richard A. Clarke

(CLARKER)

SUBJECT: RWANDA AND THE UN

We f l o a t e d t h e f o l l o w i n g idea w i t h S t r o b , Peter T a r n o f f ,
. Madeleine A l b r i g h t and some S t a t e bureaus (AF, 10) :

- - t h e P r e s i d e n t announces a $15m ERMA drawdown

— w e have t h e UNSC c a l l upon t h e UNSYG t o d i r e c t UNHCR

t o arrange cross border a s s i s t a n c e t o t h e 500,000 i n c o u n t r y
r e f u g e s s c o n c e n t r a t e d along t h e borders w i t h Tanzania,
Uganda, Burundi, and Z a i r e

- - t h e UNSC c a l l s upon those border c o u n t r i e s t o take

steps i m m e d i a t e l y t o engage i n cross border
feeding/assistance

--we a u t h o r i z e UNAMIR t o s t a t i o n UN C i v P o l ( p o l i c e )
i n t h e UNHCR camps t o p r o v i d e s e c u r i t y .

So f a r everyone l i k e s t h e idea. USUN i s e x p l o r i n g how t o p u t

i t into a draft.

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NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

27-Apr-1994 14:19 EDT

MEMORANDUM FOR: SEE BELOW

FROM: R i c h a r d A. Clarke
(CLARKER)

SUBJECT: FOR BERGER: ADD RWANDA TO SOMALIA DC?

Sandy,

There i s h i g h l e v e l i n t e r e s t i n S t a t e and here on Rwanda.

I recommend t h a t you add a 15 minute s e c t i o n t o t h e Somalia
DC on F r i d a y t o here from S t a t e , AID, and USUN on what we are
doing on Rwanda.

Dick

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K ^ I W T O N ^ i B R A R Y, P.( lOTOf ^OP V
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NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

28-Apr-1994 17:52 EDT

— OECRET

MEMORANDUM FOR: SEE BELOW

FROM: R i c h a r d A. Clarke
(CLARKER)

SUBJECT: ***FOR CLEARANCE: RWANDA DC PAPER

Deputies Committee D i s c u s s i o n Paper

RWANDA

Background

The UN r e p o r t s t h a t i n excess o f 100,000 Rwandans have been

killed. F i g h t i n g between the government and r e b e l f o r c e s
c o n t i n u e s . M i l i t i a l e d massacres are a l s o c o n t i n u i n g , urged on
by r a d i o s t a t i o n s c a l l i n g f o r more k i l l i n g .

UNAMIR has drawndown t o 270 t r o o p s and i s a t t e m p t i n g t o

arrange f o r the s a f e t y of Rwandans under i t s p r o t e c t i o n a t the
K i g a l i Amahoro stadium.

About 500,000 i n - c o u n t r y refugees have f l e d t o the border

areas w i t h Tanzania, Uganda, and Z a i r e . They are b e i n g prevented
from c r o s s i n g the borders and are i n need of h u m a n i t a r i a n
assistance.

The White House issued a statement l a s t F r i d a y , m e n t i o n i n g

s p e c i f i c m i l i t a r y l e a d e r s who human r i g h t s groups b e l i e v e have
been i m p l i c a t e d i n the s l a u g h t e r s ( t a b 1 ) .

Objectives

The IWG has i d e n t i f i e d s i x s h o r t - t e r m p o l i c y objectives:

1. t o stop the on-going massacres as q u i c k l y as p o s s i b l e

through c o n t a c t s w i t h GOR and RPF l e a d e r s and demarches f o r
s i m i l a r r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s w i t h n e i g h b o r i n g s t a t e s , France, Belgium,
and o t h e r s .

2. t o support the UN and o t h e r s i n a t t e m p t s t o achieve a

ceasefire.

3. t o encourage Tanzanian and o t h e r a t t e m p t s t o resume

n e g o t i a t i o n s under the Arusha Framework.

4. t o seek t o prevent the v i o l e n c e from spreading o u t s i d e

Rwanda t h r o u g h c o n t a c t s w^Ltl^ n e i g h b p r v i a g l s l t a t ^ . . .

_ mmmmsmH'
F:\Email\Data_Source\Al\Record\CD001\apr94\038113.html Page 2 of 3

5. t o push i n t h e UN t o launch an immediate expanded

humanitarian assistance e f f o r t .

6. t o p r e v e n t a s i m i l a r round o f s l a u g h t e r and d i s o r d e r i n
Burundi by c l o s e l y m o n i t o r i n g t h e s i t u a t i o n t h e r e and s t a y i n g i n
touch w i t h t h e v a r i o u s elements i n t h e c o u n t r y t o dissuade.

- 2-

Issues f o r D i s c u s s i o n

The Deputies should p r o v i d e d i r e c t i o n t o t h e IWG on t h e

degree o f a c t i v i s m t h a t they wish t o encourage on f u r t h e r
i n t e r n a t i o n a l steps aimed a t addressing t h e s l a u g h t e r and
a s s i s t i n g refugees.

A new UNSC r e s o l u t i o n i s being c o - d r a f t e d by the Czechs and

A r g e n t i n e s . Among t h e p o s s i b l e elements i n t h e r e s o l u t i o n c o u l d
be a genocide i n v e s t i g a t i o n , a c a l l f o r UNHCR and border
c o u n t r i e s t o engage i n cross border a s s i s t a n c e t o t h e t r a p p e d i n
c o u n t r y refugees, l i m i t e d p r o t e c t i o n f o r t h e refugees, and an
arms embargo. I n t h e new UNSCR debate, s h o u l d the US s u p p o r t :

1. Genocide i n v e s t i g a t i o n : language t h a t c a l l s f o r an
i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f human r i g h t s abuses and p o s s i b l e
v i o l a t i o n s o f t h e genocide convention?

2. I n Country P r o t e c t i o n o f Refugees: language t h a t

a u t h o r i z e s t h e use o f UNAMIR m i l i t a r y o r c i v i l i a n p o l i c e t o
p r o t e c t i n - c o u n t r y refugee camps r e c i e v i n g UNHCR o r ICRC r e l i e f ?

3. Arms embargo: language banning arms e x p o r t s t o Rwanda and

would, i n t e r a l i a , s a n c t i o n the on going Ugandan a i d t o t h e
rebels?

I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e UNSCR, are t h e r e a d d i t i o n a l a c t i o n s t h a t
should be e x p l o r e d aimed a t s t o p p i n g t h e k i l l i n g , o r p u n i s h i n g
those who may have planned i t , o r a t l e a s t be seen t o be
p r e s s u r i n g t h e Rwandan government t o have i t punish them.

4. Counter-propaganda: should the US engage i n a d d i t i o n a l

propaganda a c t i v i t i e s t o g e t a message i n t o Rwanda t o counter t h e
radio s t a t i o n s that are urging k i l l i n g ?
F:\Email\Data_Source\A 1 \Record\CDOO 1 \apr94\03 8113 .html Page 3 of 3

5. Pressure t o Punish Organizers o f K i l l i n g : should the US

work w i t h o t h e r n a t i o n s t o e x p l o r e d i r e c t e d s a n c t i o n s (no
admission on t r a v e l s t a t u s , assets s e i z u r e s , e t c . ) aimed a t those
who may have engineered t h e s l a u g h t e r ? and/or d i p l o m a t i c
s a n c t i o n s (down g r a d i n g r e l a t i o n s , t e r m i n a t i o n o f non-emergency
a s s i s t a n c e ) a g a i n s t Rwanda u n t i l those r e s p o n s i b l e are t r i e d ?

-GECRDf"
•

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FOR: Rand R. Beers ( BEERS )
FOR: E r i c P. Schwartz ( SCHWARTZ )
FOR: Ernest J. Wilson I I I ( WILSON )
FOR: Susan E. Rice ( RICE )
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NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

29-Apr-1994 16:36 EDT

DDCRfif

MEMORANDUM FOR: SEE BELOW

FROM: Richard A. Clarke

(CLARKER)

SUBJECT: FOR SANDY'S APPROVAL: DRAFT DC SUMMARY

format: DC Summary

S u b j e c t : Somalia and Rwanda

The Deputies Committee decided that:

1. C o n s i d e r a t i o n o f T e r m i n a t i n g UNOSOM: The US should n o t

be seen as t a k i n g t h e l e a d t o t h r e a t e n t e r m i n a t i o n o f UNOSOM, b u t
should make c l e a r t o the Somalis t h a t donor and t r o o p
c o n t r i b u t o r s may w e l l decide t o t e r m i n a t e o p e r a t i o n s soon because
of t h e c o n t i n u e d v i o l e n c e and f a i l u r e t o achieve a p o l i t i c a l
solution.

Donors/Troop C o n t r i b u t o r s : S t a t e , AID, and DOD should

c o n s u l t w i t h t h e donors and major t r o o p c o n t r i b u t o r s about t h e i r
views on c o n t i n u i n g the o p e r a t i o n . We should urge them t o make
the r i s k o f t e r m i n a t i o n c l e a r t o the Somalis.

S p e c i a l Envoy: S t a t e should c o n s u l t w i t h t h e UN
( s p e c i f i c a l l y the a c t i n g SRSG) and r e g i o n a l s t a t e s ( E t h i o p i a ,
E r i t r e a , Uganda) t o determine whether and when a t r i p t o t h e
r e g i o n by a s p e c i a l US envoy would be h e l p f u l i n r e d u c i n g
f a c t i o n a l f i g h t i n g and promoting a p o l i t i c a l s e t t l e m e n t . I f
t h e r e i s a consensus t h a t such a t r i p should occur, then Amb.
Oakley o r some o t h e r envoy should head a team t o the r e g i o n .

Mandate Review Guidance: When t h e UNSC c o n s i d e r s t h e

UNOSOM mandate e x t e n s i o n , USUN w i l l support a 30 o r 45 day
e x t e n s i o n o n l y . I t w i l l support C o u n c i l a c t i o n t o i n s u r e t h a t
t h e r e i s a review toward the end o f t h a t p e r i o d o f t h e
p o s s i b i l i t y o f t e r m i n a t i n g o r s i g n i f i c a n t l y r e d u c i n g the mandate
and UN presence, unless f a c t i o n a l f i g h t i n g has stopped and t h e r e
has been s i g n i f i c a n t progress toward a p o l i t i c a l s e t t l e m e n t .

2. P r o t e c t i o n o f USLO: The c u r r e n t US Marine F l e e t Area

S e c u r i t y Team (FAST) i s scheduled t o d e p a r t Mogadishu on June 30.
Senior S t a t e and Defense o f f i c i a l s should c o n s u l t immediately
about S t a t e ' s plans f o r s e c u r i t y o f USLO a f t e r t h a t date. I f t h e
departments have not reached consensus, t h e i s s u e w i l l be decided
at h i g h e r l e v e l s no l 3 t e r ^ t h a n _ 15 . May . j . : ; . ^ . ^ : ^ " ^ •
[:
,4f^'~'. '.'"' C""'-~ ' " ' \

PER E,0 13526 o

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3. Contingency Evacuation o f UNOSOM: JCS and CINCENT s h o u l d

e v a l u a t e the UN p l a n f o r p e r m i s s i v e and emergency e v a c u a t i o n .
They s h o u l d determine t o what degree the UN i s p l a n n i n g t o r e l y
upon t h e US, what US c a p a b i l i t i e s would be r e q u i r e d , and what
would be necessary t o have those c a p a b i l i t i e s a v a i l a b l e i n a
t i m e l y manner. The Deputies decided t o d e f e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f
the p r o p o s a l t o c o n s u l t w i t h Congress on t h i s c o n t i n g e n c y pending
review o f t h e JCS e v a l u a t i o n .

4. UNOSOM Personnel: Agencies w i l l r e p o r t immediately on

candidates t o f i l l p o s i t i o n s on the UNOSOM s t a f f : Development
O f f i c e (AID), J u d i c i a l s e c t i o n (State/INM and J u s t i c e ) , p o l i t i c a l
o f f i c e ( S t a t e ) , and Demining/Disarmament/and D e m o b i l i z a t i o n (OSD
and ACDA).

RWANDA

S t a t e w i l l prepare a d r a f t a c t i o n p l a n f o r review Monday 3

May. I t w i l l be a v i g o r o u s program and i n c l u d e approaches t o the
UNSYG, the OAU l e a d e r s h i p , concerned European s t a t e s , and
r e g i o n a l l e a d e r s . Among the ideas t h a t we w i l l s o l i c i t r e a c t i o n
to w i l l be an OAU a u t h o r i z e d peacekeeping f o r c e f o r Rwanda, a
p r e v e n t i v e d i p l o m a c y / d e t e r r e n t f o r c e i n Burundi, an arms embargo,
a human r i g h t s / g e n o c i d e i n v e s t i g a t i o n , and a UN p r o t e c t i v e
o p e r a t i o n f o r Rwandan refugees.

The Deputies w i l l review t h e p l a n and t h e s t a t u s o f the

issue a t a t e l c o n f e r e n c e e a r l y i n the week.

USUN w i l l support S e c u r i t y C o u n c i l a c t i o n t o endorse an arms

embargo, a genocide i n v e s t i g a t i o n , and a s s i s t a n c e ( i n c l u d i n g
UNHCR) f o r the refugees.

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FOR: W i l l i a m H. I t o h ( ITOH )
FOR: K r i s t i e A. Kenney ( KENNEY )
FOR: M. Brooke Darby ( DARBY )
FOR: Cathy M i l l i s o n ( MILLISON )
FOR: James W. Reed ( REED )
FOR: Neal S. Wolin ( WOLIN )
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FOR: Rand R. Beers ( BEERS )

FOR: E r i c P. Schwartz ( SCHWARTZ )
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SL^iSi-,. .... .. .... . •

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NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

Ol-May-1994 18:31 EDT

GOUriDDtmAL—

MEMORANDUM FOR: SEE BELOW

FROM: Donald K. S t e i n b e r g
(STEINBERG)

SUBJECT: A d d i t i o n a l A c t i o n s on Rwanda

Tony/Sandy:

J- hope we can meet w i t h Dick e a r l y on Monday t o review where we

are and where we're going w i t h respect t o Rwanda. I n p a r t i c u l a r ,
we need t o review our p o t e n t i a l support f o r OAU and r e g i o n a l
e f f o r t s if/when they act t o p r o t e c t refugees on b o t h sides o f t h e
border o r take more aggressive a c t i o n t o end t h e massacre. I n
a d d i t i o n t o t h e new i n s t r u c t i o n s (State 114636) t o t h e USUN on
a c t i o n s t o pursue w i t h respect t o a r e s o l u t i o n on Rwanda (based
on Dick's s u g g e s t i o n s ) , t h e f o l l o w i n g a c t i o n s are being t a k e n :

The P r e s i d e n t ' s message yesterday i s being pumped i n t o

Rwanda through VOA, BBC, Radio France and Radio Beige.
We've a l r e a d y r e c e i v e d i n d i c a t i o n s t h a t i t i s being heard,
i f n o t heeded, by t h e government and RPF l e a d e r s h i p . I t
a l s o r e c e i v e d very heavy press p l a y i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s .

We are c o n t i n u i n g t o work w i t h t h e r e g i o n a l l e a d e r s ,
e s p e c i a l l y P r e s i d e n t s Mwinyi o f Tanzania and Museveni o f
Uganda, t o shore up t h e i r e f f o r t s a t r e s o l v i n g t h e c r i s i s .
New t a l k s are scheduled f o r Tuesday i n Arusha, a l t h o u g h i t
i s u n c e r t a i n whether t h e RPF ( t h i s time) w i l l show up. Our
Ambassador t o Tanzania, Peter De Vos, w i l l a t t e n d and h e l p
f a c i l i t a t e the discussions.

AS John Shattuck and Ambassador Rawson w i l l leave tomorrow

(Monday) n i g h t t o t r a v e l t o the r e g i o n , i n c l u d i n g Uganda,
Burundi and Tanzania t o shore up t h e r e g i o n a l l e a d e r s '
e f f o r t s t o achieve peace and p r o t e c t refugees i n Rwanda.
The UN Commission f o r Human Rights i s sending a team t o t h e
r e g i o n t o i n v e s t i g a t e t h e c u r r e n t abuses.

Senior USG o f f i c i a l s have been c o n t a c t i n g Government and RPF

l e a d e r s on a d a i l y b a s i s t o urge a c e a s e f i r e and renewal o f
negotiations. For example, DAS Bushnell t a l k e d w i t h General
Bizimungo (RGF) and General Kagame (RPF) today t o r e l a t e t h e
P r e s i d e n t ' s message from yesterday. She a l s o t o l d t h e RPF
t h a t t h e r e are r e p o r t s t h e RPF i s impeding t h e f l o w o f
refugees t o Tanzania, which he s t r o n g l y denied.

S t a t e i s assembling a r e v i s e d package o f $15 m i l l i o n i n

emergency r e l i e f a s s i s t a n c e f o r t h e r e g i o n . A team o f
refugee o f f i c i a l s from our Embassy i n Tanzania i s going t o
the border w i t h Rwanda t o assess t h e c u r r e n t s i t u a t i o n and
make recommendations f o r new a s s i s t a n c e .
F:\Email\Data_Source\Al\Record\CD001\may94\038358.html Page 2 of2

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FOR: Wilma G. H a l l ( HALL )
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FOR: W i l l i a m H. I t o h ( ITOH )
FOR: K r i s t i e A. Kenney ( KENNEY )
FOR: M. Brooke Darby ( DARBY )
FOR: Cathy M i l l i s o n ( MILLISON )
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FOR: Richard A. C l a r k e ( CLARKER )
FOR: Richard L. Canas ( CANAS )
FOR: Wanda D. Lindsey ( LINDSEY )
FOR.:- Rand R. Beers ( BEERS )
FOR: E r i c P. Schwartz ( SCHWARTZ )
FOR: Ernest J. Wilson I I I ( WILSON )
FOR: Susan E. Rice ( RICE )
FOR: Marcia G. Norman ( NORMAN )
FOR: 0. Ruth S t a l c u p ( STALCUP )
FOR: Sean J. Darragh ( DARRAGH )
FOR: N a t a l i e S. Wozniak ( WOZNIAK )
FOR: C a l v i n A. M i t c h e l l ( MITCHELLC )
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CC Non Records ( NONRECORD )
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CC MacArthur DeShazer ( DESHAZER )
CC Dan W. Mozena ( MOZENA )
CC Donald K. S t e i n b e r g ( STEINBERG )
CC George M. A n d r i c o s ( ANDRICOS )
CC C h r i s t i n a L. Funches ( FUNCHES )
CC Jeremy D. Rosner ( ROSNER )
CC Eric Liu ( LIU )
CC W i l l i a m C. Danvers ( DANVERS )

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A l Folder: MAY94
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Date M o d i f i e d : Ol-May-1994 18:30
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Message P r i o r i t y : FIRST CLASS
SECRET
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
WASHINGTON. D.C. 20506

May 2, 1994

MEMORANDUM FOR PEACEKEEPING CORE GROUP MEMBERS

FROM: RICHARD A. CLARKE
SUBJECT: Summary and Conclusions o f 2 May 94
Meeting

GEORGIA
1. S t a t e (NIS) w i l l engage i n a v a r i e t y o f d i p l o m a t i c
c o n t a c t s w i t h t h e Russians and Georgians t h i s week t o probe
f u r t h e r t h e reasons f o r t h e May 10th " d e a d l i n e " f o r a d e c i s i o n on
peacekeeping.

EO 13526 1.4c, EO 13526 1.4d

3. S t a t e (10) w i l l prepare an a n a l y s i s o f t h e v a r y i n g
l e v e l s o f UNSC a c t i o n t h a t might be taken w i t h regard t o a CIS
peacekeeping f o r c e (e.g. acknowledgement, endorsement) and what
" p r i c e " o r c o n d i t i o n s might be sought o f t h e CIS i n r e t u r n (e.g.
r e p o r t i n g , m o n i t o r i n g , mandate). The paper should be a v a i l a b l e
t o members o f t h e Core Group by 6 May.

RWANDA
1. USUN w i l l c i r c u l a t e t o o t h e r concerned d e l e g a t i o n s t h e
elements o f a new r e s o l u t i o n based on t h e guidance t h a t was
agreed on by t h e i n t e r a g e n c y community on A p r i l 30, w i t h a view
t o a p p r o v a l o f such a r e s o l u t i o n l a t e r t h i s week.

2. S t a t e w i l l examine what f u n d i n g a u t h o r i t i e s are

a v a i l a b l e f o r US s u p p o r t t o h u m a n i t a r i a n and peacekeeping
o p e r a t i o n s ( V o l u n t a r y PKO account; FAA s e c t i o n s 506A, 522; ERMA)
NSC w i l l seek a White House announcement o f $15 m i l l i o n i n
emergency refugee a s s i s t a n c e .

EO 13526 1.4c, EO 13526 1.4d

4. S t a t e (AF) w i l l host a d a i l y (M-F) video conference on

Rwanda a t noon, u n t i l f u r t h e r n o t i c e .

fffSsifyoCLWON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

SECRET 2

GENERAL
There was agreement t h a t USAID should be r o u t i n e l y i n v i t e d
t o a l l f u t u r e meetings o f t h e Core Group.

Additional Distribution:
State/NIS - Amb. C o l l i n s
State/AF - Asst Sec Moose

CECRET

CLINTON LI COPY
F:\Emai]\Data_Source\A l\Record\CD001\may94\038578.html Page 1 of 4

NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

03-May-1994 10:04 EDT

CONFIDENTIAL

MEMORANDUM FOR: SEE BELOW

FROM: Susan E. Rice

(RICE)

SUBJECT: K o f i Annan B r i e f i n g Memo

May 3, 1994

INFORMATION

MEMORANDUM FOR SAMUEL R. BERGER

THROUGH: RICHARD A. CLARKE

FROM: SUSAN E. RICE

SUBJECT: Your Meeting w i t h K o f i Annan, Tuesday, May 3,

1994, a t 12:15 pm.

K o f i Annan, UN Undersecretary General f o r Peacekeeping, i s i n

Washington f o r meetings w i t h Members of Congress, i n c l u d i n g a
hearing yesterday before the Senate A f r i c a Subcommittee on
peacekeeping i n A f r i c a . Annan i s l i k e l y t o wish t o cover a range
of issues w i t h you i n c l u d i n g : Bosnia, Rwanda, and p o s s i b l y
Somalia, the s t a t u s o f our PDD and peacekeeping funding.

Update on Peacekeeping Reform a t the UN

The UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO), which Annan

heads, has made s i g n i f i c a n t progress i n the past year i n
improving i t s c a p a c i t y t o manage peace o p e r a t i o n s . I n a d d i t i o n
t o a s u b s t a n t i a l r e o r g a n i z a t i o n and increase i n i t s s t a f f , DPKO
now has a 24-hour s i t u a t i o n room and a stand-by forces planning
team. The l a t t e r i s a the r e s u l t o f a year-long p r o j e c t t o
s o l i c i t v o l u n t a r y , but non-binding commitments o f troops,
equipment, and services from member s t a t e s . This e f f o r t has
y i e l d e d pledges o f over 50,000 troops, which should improve the
UN's force planning and r a p i d deployment c a p a b i l i t i e s measurably.

Consistent w i t h the PDD, the U.S. has not made any such pledges,
but once the PDD i s signed we w i l l o f f e r the UN i n f o r m a t i o n on
p o t e n t i a l l y a v a i l a b l e U.S. forces or c a p a b i l i t i e s . We w i l l , o f
course, make no commitments t o provide such forces when they are
requested.

Suggested T a l k i n g Points

DECLASSIFIED IN PART
PER E.O. 13526

CLINTON LIBRARY PH0T0C(&P¥

F:\Email\Data_Source\Al\Record\CD001\may94\038578.html Page 2 of 4

Bosnia

I appreciate the Secretary-General's expressed concern about

c r i t i c i s m of U.S. p o l i c y by UNPROFOR o f f i c i a l s . These statements
have not been h e l p f u l t o our shared goal o f improved c o o r d i n a t i o n
between the UN and NATO.

• -- This p u b l i c s n i p i n g has t o stop. What can we do, i n your

view t o improve UN-NATO r e l a t i o n s both on the ground and i n the
press?

We are very concerned t h a t the Serbs continue t o v i o l a t e the

Gorazde and Sarajevo e x c l u s i o n zones, EO 13526 1.4d

EO 13526 1.4d

Rwanda

We are very concerned about the grave s i t u a t i o n i n Rwanda.

We are hopeful t h a t A f r i c a n nations w i l l respond f a v o r a b l y t o the
SYG's request f o r t r o o p s . What i s your expectation? What r o l e
do you t h i n k peacekeepers could u s e f u l l y play? How many do you
expect are needed?

I f adequate troops are a v a i l a b l e , we w i l l do what we can t o

make v o l u n t a r y c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o deploy and s u s t a i n them. We do
not t h i n k i t would be wise, however, t o fund a non-UN mission
through UN assessments. This would set a bad precedent.

-- We are also planning t o make a v a i l a b l e $15 m i l l i o n t o support

the refugee and emergency r e l i e f e f f o r t and have dispatched
Ambassador Rawson and John Shattuck t o the region t o t r y t o
r e i n v i g o r a t e the peace process.

Somalia

-- We have threatened t o d i s c o n t i n u e support f o r UNOSOM I I i f

the p a r t i e s f a i l t o make s u b s t a n t i a l p o l i t i c a l progress. We are
c o n s i d e r i n g how t o respond i f t h i s t h r e a t does not b r i n g r e s u l t s .

Do you t h i n k , i f the UNSC threatens t o withdraw the f o r c e and

donors t h r e a t e n t o c u t assistance, t h i s w i l l y i e l d any u s e f u l
r e s u l t ? Do you t h i n k there i s any c o l l e c t i v e w i l l t o c a r r y out
such a t h r e a t ?

How c o n f i d e n t are you t h a t the major troops c o n t r i b u t o r s w i l l

stay beyond May/June? I f they are not l i k e l y t o stay, wouldn't
i t be p r e f e r a b l e f o r the UN t o be seen t o withdraw because the
p a r t i e s have f a i l e d t o cooperate r a t h e r than because the UN
mission crumbled?

Haiti

Do you have any sense of what r o l e a r e c o n f i g u r e d , more

robust UNMIH might play, i n the event t h a t sanctions s o f t e n the
m i l i t a r y regime? Do you t h i n k there would be any a p p e t i t e i n the
UN f o r a peace enforcement mission i n H a i t i ?

Georgia

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

F:\Email\Data_Source\Al\Record\CD001\may94\038578.html Page 3 of 4

The Russians a r e p r e s s i n g f o r t h e immediate d i s p a t c h o f a UN

m i s s i o n t o Georgia. T h i s seems premature g i v e n t h e f a i l u r e o f
the p a r t i e s t o reach any form o f s e t t l e m e n t . Do you see any r o l e
f o r UN peacekeepers a t t h i s stage? What r o l e might t h e UN p l a y
i f t h e Russians decide t o go i n u n i l a t e r a l l y w i t h a CIS f o r c e ?

Peacekeeping Funding

(FYI: A NSC/State/OMB team t r a v e l l e d t o t h e UN l a s t week t o t r y

t o o b t a i n a d d i t i o n a l i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e UN's cash f l o w p i c t u r e
f o r p r e s e n t a t i o n t o Congress. Yesterday, and OMB-NSC team met
w i t h House and Senate a p p r o p r i a t o r s . While t h e g e n e r a l mood was
more o r l e s s c o o p e r a t i v e and u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e s e v e r i t y o f t h e
problem, s t a f f expressed s e r i o u s doubt t h a t Congress w i l l be a b l e
t o a c t b e f o r e t h e August recess (when t h e cash f l o w c r i s i s i s
l i k e l y t o become severe) and concern t h a t t h e House Republicans
w i l l t r y t o e x t r a c t a d d i t i o n a l c o n d i t i o n s o r h o l d up t h e
supplemental over UN r e f o r m .

Another t h i n g t h a t was c l e a r from these meetings i s t h e

importance o f s c h e d u l i n g a P r e s i d e n t i a l meeting w i t h t h e Defense
a u t h o r i z e r s / a p p r o p r i a t o r s i m m e d i a t e l y . Many a r e f e e l i n g l e f t o u t
and i n c r e a s i n g l y angry.)

Thank you f o r your h e l p i n p r o v i d i n g f i n a n c i a l i n f o r m a t i o n t o

our team t h a t v i s i t e d t h e UN l a s t week. We are w o r k i n g hard w i t h
Congress t o t r y t o f i n d a s o l u t i o n t o t h e f u n d i n g problem. The
P r e s i d e n t i s p e r s o n a l l y committed t o t h i s e f f o r t .

We are hoping t o be a b l e t o have some funds t o t h e UN i n

August, b u t t h i s w i l l be d i f f i c u l t g i v e n t h e c o m p l e x i t y o f t h e
a p p r o p r i a t i o n s process t h i s year.

— One t h i n g i s c l e a r : I t i s a b s o l u t e l y c r u c i a l t h a t we o b t a i n
an e f f e c t i v e i n s p e c t o r g e n e r a l . Otherwise, we w i l l never be a b l e
t o pay o f f our debts i n f u l l . What do you t h i n k we can do t o
press our case more e f f e c t i v e l y b o t h w i t h t h e SYG and t h e
membership?

C o n t a i n i n g UN Peacekeeping Costs

We a p p r e c i a t e t h e e f f o r t s t h e UN has made t o t r y t o reduce

the c o s t s o f on-going peacekeeping o p e r a t i o n s .

-- We would l i k e t o work w i t h your s t a f f i n a low-key and q u i e t

ways t o t r y t o i d e n t i f y a d d i t i o n a l , r e a d i l y implementable c o s t -
savings measures.

We would l i k e t o send a s m a l l team t o New York t o work w i t h

DPKO i n t h e same cooperate s p i r i t t h a t our l o g i s t i c s teams d i d
last Fall. How do you view t h i s p r o p o s a l ?

Concurrences by: Jenonne Walker

Distribution:

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

F:\Email\Data_Source\Al\Record\CD001\may94\038578.html Page 4 of 4

FOR: Samuel R. Berger ( BERGER )

FOR: Mary C. Emery ( EMERY )
FOR: Wilma G. H a l l ( HALL )
FOR: K r i s t e n K. C i c i o ( CICIO )
FOR: K a t h e r i n e M. V e i t ( VEIT )
FOR; W i l l i a m H. I t o h ( ITOH )
FOR: K r i s t i e A. Kenney ( KENNEY )
FOR: M. Brooke Darby ( DARBY )
FOR: Cathy M i l l i s o n ( MILLISON )
FOR: James W. Reed { REED )
FOR: Neal S. Wolin ( WOLIN )
FOR: Ardenia R. Hawkins ( HAWKINS )
CC: Records ( RECORDS )

A d d i t i o n a l Header I n f o r m a t i o n Follows

Date Created: 03-May-1994 10:04

D e l e t a b l e Flag: Y
DOCNUM: 038578
VMS Filename: OA$SHARE45:ZVEYEEEUK.WPL
A l Folder: MAY94
Message Format:
Message S t a t u s : READ
Date M o d i f i e d : 03-May-1994 10:04
Forward Flag: YES
Read-Receipt Requested: NO
D e l i v e r y - R e c e i p t Requested: NO
Message P r i o r i t y : FIRST_CLASS

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

F:\Email\Data_Source\Al\Record\CD001\may94\038581.html Page 1 of4

NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

03-May-1994 10:08 EDT

CONFIDENTIAL

MEMORANDUM FOR: SEE BELOW

FROM: Susan E. Rice

(RICE)

SUBJECT: S l i g h t l y Revised K o f i Annan Memo

May 3, 1994

INFORMATION

MEMORANDUM FOR SAMUEL R. BERGER

THROUGH: RICHARD A. CLARKE

FROM: SUSAN E. RICE

SUBJECT: Your Meeting w i t h K o f i Annan, Tuesday, May 3,

1994, a t 12:15 pm.

K o f i Annan, UN Undersecretary General f o r Peacekeeping, i s i n

Washington f o r meetings w i t h Members o f Congress, i n c l u d i n g a
hearing yesterday before the Senate A f r i c a Subcommittee on
peacekeeping i n A f r i c a . Annan i s l i k e l y t o wish t o cover a range
of issues w i t h you i n c l u d i n g : Bosnia, Rwanda, and p o s s i b l y
Somalia, t h e status o f our PDD and peacekeeping funding.

Update on Peacekeeping Reform a t t h e UN

The UN Department o f Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO) , which Annan

heads, has made s i g n i f i c a n t progress i n the past year i n
improving i t s capacity t o manage peace o p e r a t i o n s . I n a d d i t i o n
to a s u b s t a n t i a l r e o r g a n i z a t i o n and increase i n i t s s t a f f , DPKO
now has a 24-hour s i t u a t i o n room and a stand-by f o r c e s planning
team. The l a t t e r i s a the r e s u l t o f a year-long p r o j e c t t o
s o l i c i t v o l u n t a r y , but non-binding commitments o f troops,
equipment, and services from member s t a t e s . This e f f o r t has
y i e l d e d pledges o f over 50,000 troops, which should improve the
UN's f o r c e planning and r a p i d deployment c a p a b i l i t i e s measurably.

Consistent w i t h the PDD, the U.S. has not made any such pledges,
but once the PDD i s signed we w i l l o f f e r the UN i n f o r m a t i o n on
p o t e n t i a l l y a v a i l a b l e U.S. forces or c a p a b i l i t i e s . We w i l l , o f
course, make no commitments t o provide such forces when they are.
requested.

Suggested T a l k i n g Points
DECLASSIFIED IN PART
PER E. 0.13526
F:\Email\Data_Source\Al\Record\CD001\may94\038581.html Page 2 of 4

Bosnia

I a p p r e c i a t e the Secretary-General's expressed concern about

c r i t i c i s m o f U.S. p o l i c y by UNPROFOR o f f i c i a l s . These statements
have not been h e l p f u l t o our shared goal o f improved c o o r d i n a t i o n
between the UN and NATO.

• -- This p u b l i c s n i p i n g has t o stop. What can we do, i n your

view t o improve UN-NATO r e l a t i o n s both on t h e ground and i n the
press?

-- We are very concerned t h a t the Serbs continue t o v i o l a t e the

Gorazde and Sarajevo exclusion zones. E,P..13526. 1.4(d)

Rwanda

We are very concerned about the grave s i t u a t i o n i n Rwanda.

We are hopeful t h a t A f r i c a n nations w i l l respond f a v o r a b l y t o the
SYG's request f o r troops. What i s your expectation? What r o l e
do you t h i n k peacekeepers could u s e f u l l y play? How many do you
expect are needed?

I f adequate troops are a v a i l a b l e , we w i l l do what we can t o

make v o l u n t a r y c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o deploy and s u s t a i n them. We do
not t h i n k i t would be wise, however, t o fund a non-UN mission
through UN assessments. This would set a bad precedent.

We are also planning t o make a v a i l a b l e $15 m i l l i o n t o support

the refugee and emergency r e l i e f e f f o r t and have dispatched
Ambassador Rawson and John Shattuck t o the r e g i o n t o t r y t o
r e i n v i g o r a t e the peace process.

Somalia

We have threatened t o d i s c o n t i n u e support f o r UNOSOM I I i f

the p a r t i e s f a i l t o make s u b s t a n t i a l p o l i t i c a l progress. We are
c o n s i d e r i n g how t o respond i f t h i s t h r e a t does not b r i n g r e s u l t s .

Do you t h i n k , i f the UNSC threatens t o withdraw the f o r c e and

donors t h r e a t e n t o cut assistance, t h i s w i l l y i e l d any u s e f u l
r e s u l t ? Do you t h i n k there i s any c o l l e c t i v e w i l l t o c a r r y out
such a t h r e a t ?

How c o n f i d e n t are you t h a t the major troops c o n t r i b u t o r s w i l l

stay beyond May/June? I f they are not l i k e l y t o stay, wouldn't
i t be p r e f e r a b l e f o r the UN t o be seen t o withdraw because the
p a r t i e s have f a i l e d t o cooperate r a t h e r than because the UN
mission crumbled?

Haiti

Do you have any sense of what r o l e a r e c o n f i g u r e d , more

robust UNMIH might play, i n the event t h a t sanctions s o f t e n the •
m i l i t a r y regime? Do you t h i n k there would be any a p p e t i t e i n the
UN f o r a peace enforcement mission i n H a i t i ?

Georgia
F:\Email\Data_Source\Al\Record\CD001\may94\038581.html Page 3 of 4

The Russians are pressing f o r the immediate d i s p a t c h of a UN

mission t o Georgia. This seems premature g i v e n the f a i l u r e of
D the p a r t i e s t o reach any form of s e t t l e m e n t . Do you see any r o l e
for UN peacekeepers at t h i s stage? What r o l e might the UN play
i f the Russians decide t o go i n u n i l a t e r a l l y w i t h a CIS force?

Peacekeeping Funding

(FYI: A NSC/State/OMB team t r a v e l l e d t o the UN l a s t week t o t r y

to o b t a i n a d d i t i o n a l i n f o r m a t i o n on the UN's cash flow p i c t u r e
for p r e s e n t a t i o n t o Congress. Yesterday, and OMB-NSC team met
w i t h House and Senate a p p r o p r i a t o r s . While the general mood was
more o r less c o o p e r a t i v e and understanding o f the s e v e r i t y o f the
problem, s t a f f expressed serious doubt t h a t Congress w i l l be able
to a c t before the August recess (when the cash flow c r i s i s i s
l i k e l y t o become severe) and concern t h a t the House Republicans
w i l l t r y t o e x t r a c t a d d i t i o n a l c o n d i t i o n s or hold up the
supplemental over UN reform.

Another t h i n g t h a t was clear from these meetings i s the

importance o f scheduling a P r e s i d e n t i a l meeting w i t h the Defense
a u t h o r i z e r s / a p p r o p r i a t o r s immediately. Many are f e e l i n g l e f t out
and i n c r e a s i n g l y angry.)

Thank you f o r your help i n p r o v i d i n g f i n a n c i a l i n f o r m a t i o n t o

our team t h a t v i s i t e d the UN l a s t week. We are working hard w i t h
Congress t o t r y t o f i n d a s o l u t i o n t o the funding problem. The
President i s p e r s o n a l l y committed t o t h i s e f f o r t .

We are hoping t o be able t o have some funds t o the UN i n

August, but t h i s w i l l be d i f f i c u l t given the complexity of the
a p p r o p r i a t i o n s process t h i s year.

-- One t h i n g i s c l e a r : I t i s a b s o l u t e l y c r u c i a l t h a t we o b t a i n
3n e f f e c t i v e i n s p e c t o r general. Otherwise, we w i l l never be able
to pay o f f our debts i n f u l l . What do you t h i n k we can do t o
press our case more e f f e c t i v e l y both w i t h the SYG and the
membe rship?

Containing UN Peacekeeping Costs

-- We appreciate the e f f o r t s the UN has made t o t r y t o reduce

the costs o f on-going peacekeeping o p e r a t i o n s .

We would l i k e t o work w i t h your s t a f f i n a low-key and q u i e t

way t o t r y t o i d e n t i f y a d d i t i o n a l , r e a d i l y implementable cost-
savings measures.

We would l i k e t o send a small team t o New York t o work w i t h

DPKO i n the same cooperate s p i r i t t h a t our l o g i s t i c s team d i d
l a s t F a l l . How do you view t h i s proposal?

Concurrences by: Jenonne Walker

Distribution:
F:\Email\Data_Source\Al\Record\CD001\may94\038581.html Page 4 of 4

FOR: Samuel R. Berger ( BERGER )

FOR: M.ary C. Emery ( EMERY )
FOR: Wilma G. H a l l ( HALL )
FOR: K r i s t e n K. C i c i o ( CICIO )
FOR: Katherine M. V e i t ( VEIT )
FOR: W i l l i a m H. I t o h ( ITOH )
FOR: K r i s t i e A, Kenney ( KENNEY )
FOR: M-. Brooke Darby ( DARBY )
FOR: Cathy M i l l i s o n ( MILLISON
FOR: James W. Reed ( REED )
FOR: Neal S. Wolin ( WOLIN )
FOR: Ardenia R. Hawkins ( HAWKINS )
CC: Records ( RECORDS )

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NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

05-May-1994 13:28 EDT

SECRBT-

MEMORANDUM FOR:
Susan E. Rice ( RICE )
Randy R. Beers ( BEERS )
Richard A. Clarke ( CLARKER )

FROM: Sean J. Darragh

(DARRAGH)

SUBJECT: RWANDA WORKING GROUP

FALLOUT FROM RWANDA MEETING

RPF IS MAKING A FINAL PUSH TO TAKE KIGALI. THEY

WILL LIKELY SUCCEED.

SHATTUCK MET WITH SALIM SALIM. HE IS IN SYNC WITH OUR

POSITION.

GEN'L DALIR (sp?) IS ASKING FOR 16 THOUSAND TROOPS.

USUN HAS ASKED WHETHER WE ARE WILLING TO HELP OUTFIT SOME OF
THEM. OUTFITTING MEANS EVERYTHING FROM WEB GEAR TO APCS.

IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS REQUEST IS FOR AN ACCESSED

OPERATION OR NOT. SUSAN ZELLE THINKS THE UN WILL PAY.

BELGIUM'S AMB. TOLD MOOSE THEY WANT US TO TAKE THE

LEAD. EVERYONE ACCEPT THE FRENCH SEEM TO AGREE THAT SOME
TYPE OF HUMANITARIAN OPERATION SHOULD BE ASSEMBLED SOON.
FRENCH WANT TWO SIDES TO AGREE TO AN OPERATION BEFORE THEY
JUMP ON BOARD FOR SUCH A VENTURE.

ALTHOUGH EVERYONE SEEMS TO BE SHYING AWAY FROM A

FORMAL PK OPERATION BECAUSE THE DISPUTANTS SEEM ADVERSE TO I T
AS YET, GEN'L DALIR'S PLAN SEEMS LIKE A PK OPERATION UNDER A
NON-PKO GUISE.

AMB ALBRIGHT WILL GET GUIDANCE TO FIND OUT MORE FROM

BBG BEFORE WE EXPOSE OUR POSITION. THE FACT THAT WE DON'T
HAVE ONE YET HAS A LOT TO DO WITH THAT. STATE IS CALLING FOR
A DEPUTIES COMMITTEE.

STATE IS DRAFTING A PAPER FOR A POTENTIAL DC IN CASE

IT IS NEEDED. EVERYONE AGREES DICK'S CORE GROUP TONIGHT
MIGHT MAKE A DC UNNECESSARYYY

THAT I S ALL

SEAN

PER E.O. 13526

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CC: Records ( RECORDS )

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NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

06-May-1994 17:27 EDT

CONFIDENTIAL

MEMORANDUM FOR:
Donald K. Steinberg ( STEINBERG
Richard A. Clarke ( CLARKER )
Randy R. Beers ( BEERS )

FROM: Susan E. Rice

(RICE)

SUBJECT: VP t a l k e r s on Rwanda

T a l k i n g Points f o r Vice President's Meeting

w i t h Boutros-Ghali, Salim Salim e t . a l on Rwanda

We remain extremely concerned about the on-going tragedy i n

Rwanda. This i s a problem t h a t demands prompt i n t e r n a t i o n a l
action.

The United States wants t o play a c o n s t r u c t i v e r o l e i n

a l l e v i a t i n g t h e s u f f e r i n g i n Rwanda and s u p p o r t i n g e f f o r t s t o
achieve a l a s t i n g p o l i t i c a l s o l u t i o n .

— There have been a number of proposed responses t o t h e tragedy

i n Rwanda. We would l i k e t o explore these ideas w i t h you
f u r t h e r , as w e l l as w i t h r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s o f concerned A f r i c a n
s t a t e s and our colleagues i n the S e c u r i t y C o u n c i l .

The U.S. has not c a t e g o r i c a l l y r u l e d i n or out any p a r t i c u l a r

response.

-- We do, however, have serious r e s e r v a t i o n s about proposals t o

e s t a b l i s h a l a r g e peace enforcement mission, which would operate
throughout Rwanda w i t h a mandate t o end t h e f i g h t i n g , r e s t o r e law
and order and p a c i f y t h e p o p u l a t i o n .

I n our view, t h e r e are several problems w i t h t h i s approach:

EO 13526 1.4d

This m i s s i o n would be p a r t i c u l a r l y complex, perhaps

even more so than Somalia.

I t remains very unclear whether t h e p a r t i e s t o the

c o n f l i c t would use f o r c e t o oppose such a mission.

Thus f a r , no country has committed t o send troops,

and i t appears u n l i k e l y t h a t there w i l l be s u f f i c i e n t
pledges t o mount t h e large force r e q u i r e d .

DECLASSIFIED IN PART

LINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

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L o g i s t i c a l l y , i t would be d i f f i c u l t t o stage a
s i z e a b l e f o r c e o u t o f K i g a l i , because a l l movement o f
t r o o p s and s u p p l i e s would have t o be done by a i r .

I t i s u n c l e a r p r e c i s e l y what t h e peace enforcement

m i s s i o n would be o r when i t would end.

F i n a l l y , t h e chances o f success appear s l i m ,

p a r t i c u l a r l y w i t h o u t the p a r t i c i p a t i o n o f a major
m i l i t a r y power.

There may, however, be a more l i m i t e d b u t v i t a l l y i m p o r t a n t

h u m a n i t a r i a n m i s s i o n t h a t t h e UN and/or OAU c o u l d p e r f o r m .

— We would be i n t e r e s t e d i n e x p l o r i n g t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f an
i n t e r n a t i o n a l f o r c e t o p r o t e c t those refugees and d i s p l a c e d
persons t h a t a r e i n t h e most immediate d a n g e r — t h a t i s those i n
t h e s o u t h e r n p o r t i o n o f Rwanda.

• Such a f o r c e c o u l d n o t o n l y p r o v i d e p r o t e c t i o n ,
a s s i s t i n refugee r e p a t r i a t i o n and i n t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n
of h u m a n i t a r i a n a s s i s t a n c e b u t a l s o serve i n a
p r e v e n t i v e c a p a c i t y t o d e t e r t h e spread o f v i o l e n c e t o
Burundi.

This m i s s i o n would r e q u i r e fewer t r o o p s and be l e s s

complex l o g i s t i c a l l y .

I t would a l s o r e q u i r e t h e a c t i v e support o f t h e
Burundi government and, p r e f e r a b l y , t h e assent o f t h e
Rwandan p a r t i e s .

I f t h e t r o o p s were a v a i l a b l e f o r such a m i s s i o n , t h e U.S.

would endeavor t o h e l p by p r o v i d i n g f i n a n c i a l resources,
equipment and l i f t as w e l l as h u m a n i t a r i a n a s s i s t a n c e .

I f t h e m i s s i o n were mounted i n d e p e n d e n t l y by t h e OAU o r by a

c o l l e c t i o n o f concerned s t a t e s w i t h the b l e s s i n g o f t h e UN
S e c u r i t y C o u n c i l , t h e U.S. would o f f e r some a s s i s t a n c e on a
voluntary basis.

I f t h e m i s s i o n were funded t h r o u g h UN assessments, t h e U.S.

would pay more than 30% o f t h e c o s t and seek t h e normal
reimbursement f o r any a d d i t i o n a l c o n t r i b u t i o n s o f equipment o r
services.

I hope t h a t we can work t o g e t h e r t o t r y t o c r a f t a v i a b l e

d i p l o m a t i c s o l u t i o n t o t h i s t r a g e d y and p r o v i d e r e l i e f t o t h e
hundreds o f thousands who are s u f f e r i n g as r e s u l t o f t h i s t r a g i c
conflict.

CC: Records ( RECORDS )

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Date Created: 06-May-1994 17:27

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A l F o l d e r : MAY94
Message Format:
Message S t a t u s : READ
Date M o d i f i e d : 06-May-1994 17:27
Forward Flag: YES
Read-Receipt Requested: NO
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NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

06-May-1994 21:49 EDT

CONriDENTIAL

MEMORANDUM FOR:
Donald K. Steinberg ( STEINBERG )
Richard A. Clarke ( CLARKER )
Randy R. Beers ( BEERS )

FROM: Susan E. Rice

(RICE)

SUBJECT: Revised TPs f o r VP's Meeting on Rwanda

Suggested T a l k i n g Points f o r Vice President's Meeting

w i t h Boutros-Ghali, Salim Salim e t . a l . on Rwanda

— We remain extremely concerned about t h e on-going tragedy i n

Rwanda. This i s a problem t h a t demands prompt i n t e r n a t i o n a l
action.

— The United States wants t o play a c o n s t r u c t i v e r o l e i n

a l l e v i a t i n g the s u f f e r i n g i n Rwanda and supporting e f f o r t s t o
achieve a l a s t i n g p o l i t i c a l s o l u t i o n .

There have been a number of proposed responses t o t h i s

tragedy. We would l i k e t o explore these ideas w i t h you f u r t h e r ,
as w e l l as w i t h r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s of concerned A f r i c a n s t a t e s and
our colleagues i n the S e c u r i t y Council.

We have already taken some important steps. We w i l l continue

t o support the d i p l o m a t i c e f f o r t s now underway by the UN and
r e g i o n a l leaders t o reach a c e a s e f i r e and r e t u r n t o the Arusha
peace process. We want t o consider how t o support the UN e f f o r t
t o work w i t h the OAU t o ensure the s a f e t y of refugees on both
sides o f the border.

We are committed t o provide humanitarian r e l i e f , t o implement

the arms embargo and t o have the UN Human Rights Commission f u l l y
i n v e s t i g a t e the s i t u a t i o n i n Rwanda.

In a d d i t i o n , t h e r e may be another v i t a l l y important

humanitarian mission t h a t the UN and/or OAU could perform.

We would be i n t e r e s t e d i n e x p l o r i n g the p o s s i b i l i t y of
c r e a t i n g a p r o t e c t i v e zone w i t h an i n t e r n a t i o n a l f o r c e t o provide
s e c u r i t y t o populations i n the southern p o r t i o n of Rwanda, where
refugees and d i s p l a c e d persons are i n the most immediate danger.

Such a f o r c e could not only provide s e c u r i t y f o r the

p r o t e c t i v e zone and the d i s t r i b u t i o n of humanitarian
assistance but also a s s i s t i n refugee r e p a t r i a t i o n and
serve i n a p r e v e n t i v e c a p a c i t y t o deter the spread of
v i o l e n c e t o Burundi. The o p e r a t i o n would r e q u i r e

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCO Y DECLASSIFIED IN PART

PER E. 0. 13526
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robust r u l e s of engagement.

This mission may r e q u i r e fewer troops and be less

complex l o g i s t i c a l l y than some other proposals now
being discussed.

I t would, however, need the a c t i v e support of the

Burundi government and, p r e f e r a b l y , the assent of the
Rwandan p a r t i e s .

I f capable troops were a v a i l a b l e and the mission considered

v i a b l e , the U.S. would endeavor t o help by p r o v i d i n g f i n a n c i a l
resources, equipment and l i f t as w e l l as humanitarian assistance.

We would expect t o be j o i n e d i n t h i s e f f o r t by other

concerned n a t i o n s .

I f the mission were mounted independently by the OAU or by a

c o l l e c t i o n of concerned s t a t e s w i t h the b l e s s i n g of the UN
• S e c u r i t y Council, the U.S. would o f f e r some assistance on a
voluntary basis.

I f the mission were funded through UN assessments, the U.S.

would pay more than 30% of the cost and seek the normal
reimbursement f o r any a d d i t i o n a l c o n t r i b u t i o n s of equipment or
services.

At the same time, we have serious r e s e r v a t i o n s about

proposals t o e s t a b l i s h a l a r g e peace enforcement mission, which
would operate throughout Rwanda w i t h a mandate t o end the
f i g h t i n g , r e s t o r e law and order and p a c i f y the p o p u l a t i o n .

While we have not d e f i n i t i v e l y r u l e d i n or out any p a r t i c u l a r

response, i n our view, there are several problems w i t h t h i s
approach:

EO 13526 1.4d

This mission would be p a r t i c u l a r l y complex, perhaps

even more so than Somalia.

I t remains very unclear whether the p a r t i e s t o the

c o n f l i c t would use f o r c e t o oppose such a mission.

Thus f a r , no country has committed t o send troops,

and i t appears u n l i k e l y t h a t there w i l l be s u f f i c i e n t
pledges t o mount the l a r g e f o r c e r e q u i r e d .

L o g i s t i c a l l y , i t would be d i f f i c u l t t o stage a
s i z e a b l e force out of K i g a l i , because a l l movement of
troops and supplies would have t o be done by a i r .

I t i s unclear p r e c i s e l y what the peace enforcement

mission would be or when i t would end.

F i n a l l y , the chances of success appear s l i m ,

p a r t i c u l a r l y w i t h o u t the p a r t i c i p a t i o n of a major
m i l i t a r y power.

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

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Again, l e t me say t h a t we hope we can work t o g e t h e r t o t r y t o

c r a f t a v i a b l e d i p l o m a t i c s o l u t i o n and p r o v i d e r e l i e f t o t h e
hundreds o f thousands who are s u f f e r i n g as r e s u l t o f t h i s t r a g i c
conflict.

CC: Records RECORDS )

Additional Header I n f o r m a t i o n Follows

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A l F o l d e r : MAY94
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Date M o d i f i e d : 06-May-1994 21:48
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NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

06-May-1994 21:58 EDT

CONFIDENTIAL

MEMORANDUM FOR: SEE BELOW

FROM: Susan E. Rice

(RICE)

SUBJECT: Suggested T a l k i n g Points f o r VP's Meeting on Rwanda

Sandy,

Attached are suggested t a l k i n g p o i n t s f o r the Vice

President's meeting w i t h Boutros-Ghali e t a l . on Rwanda.

They have been i n f o r m a l l y c l e a r e d by JCS, State and OSD. Don

Steinberg concurs as w e l l .

Once you and your c o u n t e r p a r t s have cleared/commented, I w i l l

forward f o r m a l l y t o the Vice President's o f f i c e .

I w i l l also provide the Vice President's o f f i c e w i t h a c h a r t

being prepared by State t h a t summarizes the FY 94 resources
t h a t may s t i l l be a v a i l a b l e t o support v o l u n t a r y
c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o a p o t e n t i a l Rwanda mission.

Distribution:

FOR: Samuel R. Berger ( BERGER )

FOR: W. Anthony K. Lake ( LAKE )
FOR: Mary C. Emery ( EMERY )
FOR: Wilma G. H a l l ( HALL )
FOR: K r i s t e n K. C i c i o ( CICIO )
FOR: Katherine M. V e i t ( VEIT )
FOR: W i l l i a m H. I t o h ( ITOH )
FOR: K r i s t i e A. Kenney ( KENNEY )
FOR: M. Brooke Darby ( DARBY )
FOR: Cathy M i l l i s o n ( MILLISON )
FOR: James W. Reed ( REED )
FOR: Neal S. Wolin ( WOLIN )
FOR: Ardenia R. Hawkins ( HAWKINS )
CC: Records ( RECORDS )
CC: Records ( RECORDS )
CC: James A. Carman ( CARMAN )
CC: Donald K. Steinberg ( STEINBERG

A d d i t i o n a l Header I n f o r m a t i o n Follows

Date Created: 06-May-1994 21:49

Deletable Flag: Y

. DECLASSIFIED IN PART

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOC J V PER E.O. 13526

F:\Email\Data_Source\A l\Record\CDOO 1 \may94\039284.htm] Page 2 of4

DOCNUM: 03 9284
VMS Filename: OA$SHARE53:ZVFBVE8H0.WPL
Al Folder: MAY94
Message Format:
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Date M o d i f i e d : 06-May-1994 21:58
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Delivery-Receipt Requested: NO
Message P r i o r i t y : FIRST_CLASS

•
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

06-May-1994 21:49 EDT

CONFIDENTIAL

MEMORANDUM FOR:
Donald K. Steinberg ( STEINBERG )
Richard A. Clarke ( CLARKER )
Randy R. Beers ( BEERS )

FROM: Susan E. Rice

(RICE)

SUBJECT: Revised TPs f o r VP's Meeting on Rwanda

CC: Records ( RECORDS )

Suggested T a l k i n g Points f o r Vice President's Meeting

w i t h Boutros-Ghali, Salim Salim e t . a l . on Rwanda

— We remain extremely concerned about the on-going tragedy i n

Rwanda. This i s a problem t h a t demands prompt i n t e r n a t i o n a l
action.

— The United States wants t o play a c o n s t r u c t i v e r o l e i n

a l l e v i a t i n g the s u f f e r i n g i n Rwanda and s u p p o r t i n g e f f o r t s t o
achieve a l a s t i n g p o l i t i c a l s o l u t i o n .

-- There have been a number of proposed responses t o t h i s

tragedy. We would l i k e t o explore these ideas w i t h you f u r t h e r ,
as w e l l as w i t h r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s of concerned A f r i c a n s t a t e s and
our colleagues i n the S e c u r i t y Council.

We have already taken some important steps. We w i l l continue

t o support the d i p l o m a t i c e f f o r t s now underway by the UN and
r e g i o n a l leaders t o reach a c e a s e f i r e and r e t u r n t o the Arusha
peace process. We want t o consider how t o support the UN e f f o r t
t o work w i t h the OAU t o ensure the s a f e t y of refugees on both
sides of the border.

We are committed t o provide humanitarian r e l i e f , t o implement

the arms embargo and t o have the UN Human Rights Commission f u l l y
i n v e s t i g a t e the s i t u a t i o n i n Rwanda.

LINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

F:\Email\Data_Source\Al\Record\CD001\may94\039284.html Page 3 of 4

I n a d d i t i o n , t h e r e may be another v i t a l l y important

humanitarian mission t h a t the UN and/or OAU could perform.

We would be i n t e r e s t e d i n e x p l o r i n g the p o s s i b i l i t y of
c r e a t i n g a p r o t e c t i v e zone w i t h an i n t e r n a t i o n a l f o r c e t o provide
s e c u r i t y t o p o p u l a t i o n s i n the southern p o r t i o n o f Rwanda, where
refugees and d i s p l a c e d persons are i n the most immediate danger.

Such a f o r c e could not only provide s e c u r i t y f o r the

p r o t e c t i v e zone and the d i s t r i b u t i o n of humanitarian
assistance b u t also a s s i s t i n refugee r e p a t r i a t i o n and
serve i n a p r e v e n t i v e c a p a c i t y t o deter t h e spread of
v i o l e n c e t o Burundi. The o p e r a t i o n would r e q u i r e
robust r u l e s of engagement.

This mission may r e q u i r e fewer troops and be less

complex l o g i s t i c a l l y than some other proposals now
being discussed.

I t would, however, need the a c t i v e support of t h e

Burundi government and, p r e f e r a b l y , the assent of the
Rwandan p a r t i e s .

I f capable troops were a v a i l a b l e and the mission considered

v i a b l e , t h e U.S. would endeavor t o help by p r o v i d i n g f i n a n c i a l
resources, equipment and l i f t as w e l l as humanitarian assistance.

We would expect t o be j o i n e d i n t h i s e f f o r t by other

concerned n a t i o n s .

I f the mission were mounted independently by the OAU or by a

c o l l e c t i o n of concerned s t a t e s w i t h the b l e s s i n g of t h e UN
S e c u r i t y Council, t h e U.S. would o f f e r some assistance on a
v o l u n t a r y basis.

I f the mission were funded through UN assessments, t h e U.S.

would pay more than 30% of the cost and seek the normal
reimbursement f o r any a d d i t i o n a l c o n t r i b u t i o n s o f equipment or
services.

At the same time, we have serious r e s e r v a t i o n s about

proposals t o e s t a b l i s h a l a r g e peace enforcement mission, which
would operate throughout Rwanda w i t h a mandate t o end t h e
f i g h t i n g , r e s t o r e law and order and p a c i f y the p o p u l a t i o n .

While we have not d e f i n i t i v e l y r u l e d i n or out any p a r t i c u l a r

response, i n our view, there are several problems w i t h t h i s
approach:

EO 13526 1.4d

This mission would be p a r t i c u l a r l y complex, perhaps

even more so than Somalia.

I t remains very unclear whether the p a r t i e s t o the

c o n f l i c t would use force t o oppose such a mission.

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

F:\Email\Data_Source\Al\Record\CD001\may94\039284.html Page 4 of 4

Thus f a r , no c o u n t r y has committed t o send t r o o p s ,

and i t appears u n l i k e l y t h a t t h e r e w i l l be s u f f i c i e n t
pledges t o mount t h e l a r g e f o r c e r e q u i r e d .

L o g i s t i c a l l y , i t would be d i f f i c u l t t o stage a
s i z e a b l e f o r c e o u t o f K i g a l i , because a l l movement o f
t r o o p s and s u p p l i e s would have t o be done by a i r .

I t i s u n c l e a r p r e c i s e l y what t h e peace enforcement

m i s s i o n would be o r when i t would end.

F i n a l l y , t h e chances o f success appear s l i m ,

p a r t i c u l a r l y w i t h o u t t h e p a r t i c i p a t i o n o f a major
m i l i t a r y power.

Again, l e t me say t h a t we hope we can work t o g e t h e r t o t r y t o

c r a f t a v i a b l e d i p l o m a t i c s o l u t i o n and p r o v i d e r e l i e f t o t h e
hundreds o f thousands who are s u f f e r i n g as r e s u l t o f t h i s t r a g i c
conf1ict.

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

F:\Emai]\Data_Source\A]\Record\CD00l\may94\039286.html Page 1 of3

NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

07-May-1994 11:46 EDT

CONFIDENTIAL

MEMORAN-DUM FOR: SEE BELOW

FROM: Susan E. Rice

(RICE)

SUBJECT: Updated T a l k i n g Points on Rwanda

Suggested T a l k i n g Points f o r Vice President's Meeting

w i t h Boutros-Ghali, Salim Salim e t . a l . on Rwanda

We remain extremely concerned about t h e on-going tragedy i n

Rwanda. This i s a problem t h a t demands prompt i n t e r n a t i o n a l
act i o n .

-- The United States wants t o play a c o n s t r u c t i v e r o l e i n

a l l e v i a t i n g the s u f f e r i n g i n Rwanda and s u p p o r t i n g e f f o r t s t o
achieve a l a s t i n g p o l i t i c a l s o l u t i o n .

There have been a number o f proposed responses t o t h i s

tragedy. We would l i k e t o explore these ideas w i t h you f u r t h e r ,
as w e l l as w i t h r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s of concerned A f r i c a n s t a t e s and
our colleagues i n the S e c u r i t y Council.

We have already taken some important steps. We w i l l continue

t o support the d i p l o m a t i c e f f o r t s now underway by the UN and
r e g i o n a l leaders t o reach a c e a s e f i r e and r e t u r n t o the Arusha
peace process. We want t o consider how t o support the UN e f f o r t
to work w i t h the OAU t o ensure the s a f e t y o f refugees on both
sides of t h e border.

We are committed t o provide humanitarian r e l i e f , t o implement

the arms embargo and t o have the UN Human Rights Commission f u l l y
i n v e s t i g a t e t h e s i t u a t i o n i n Rwanda.

In a d d i t i o n , there may be another v i t a l l y important

humanitarian mission t h a t the UN and/or OAU could perform.

We would be i n t e r e s t e d i n e x p l o r i n g t h e p o s s i b i l i t y of
c r e a t i n g a p r o t e c t i v e zone w i t h an i n t e r n a t i o n a l f o r c e t o provide
s e c u r i t y t o populations i n the southern p o r t i o n o f Rwanda, where
refugees and d i s p l a c e d persons are i n the most immediate danger.

Such a mission could not only provide s e c u r i t y f o r

the p r o t e c t i v e zone and the d i s t r i b u t i o n of
humanitarian assistance but also a s s i s t i n refugee
r e p a t r i a t i o n and serve i n a p r e v e n t i v e c a p a c i t y t o
deter the spread of violence t o Burundi. The o p e r a t i o n
would r e q u i r e robust r u l e s of engagement.

This mission may r e q u i r e fewer troops and be less

complex l o g i s t i c a l l y than some other proposals now
being discussed
DECLASSIFIED IN PART
PER E. O. 13526
F:\Email\Data_Source\Al\Record\CD001\may94\039286.html Page 2 of 3

I t would, however, need the a c t i v e support of the

Burundi and/or Tanzanian government and the assent o f
the Rwandan p a r t i e s .

In c o n s i d e r i n g the a c t u a l humanitarian/peacekeeping
mission i n Rwanda, we must be mindful not t o upset the
d e l i c a t e p o l i t i c a l balance t h a t p r e s e n t l y e x i s t s i n
Burundi.

We must also work together t o d e f i n e c l e a r l y

achievable o b j e c t i v e s and an end-state such as
r e s e t t l e m e n t o f the displaced persons and refugees
and/or a sunset p r o v i s i o n r e q u i r i n g r e c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f
the o p e r a t i o n i n s i x months t o preclude the mission
becoming an open-ended one.

'-- I f capable troops were a v a i l a b l e and the mission considered

v i a b l e , the U.S. would endeavor t o help by p r o v i d i n g f i n a n c i a l
resources, equipment and l i f t as w e l l as humanitarian assistance,
upon agreement o f a c l e a r concept of operations.

We would expect t o be j o i n e d i n t h i s e f f o r t by other

concerned n a t i o n s .

I f the mission were mounted independently by the OAU or by a

c o l l e c t i o n of concerned states w i t h the b l e s s i n g of the UN
S e c u r i t y Council, the U.S. would o f f e r some assistance on a
v o l u n t a r y basis.

I f the mission were funded through UN assessments, the U.S.

would pay more than 30% of the cost and seek the normal
reimbursement f o r c o n t r i b u t i o n s of equipment or s e r v i c e s .

-- At the same time, we have serious r e s e r v a t i o n s about

proposals t o e s t a b l i s h a large peace enforcement mission, which
would operate throughout Rwanda w i t h a mandate t o end the
f i g h t i n g , r e s t o r e law and order and p a c i f y the p o p u l a t i o n .

While we have not d e f i n i t i v e l y r u l e d i n or out any p a r t i c u l a r

response, i n our view, there are several problems w i t h t h i s
approach:

E.O. 13526, 1.4(d)

This mission would be p a r t i c u l a r l y complex, perhaps

even more so than Somalia.

I t remains very unclear whether the p a r t i e s t o the

c o n f l i c t would use force t o oppose such a mission.

Thus f a r , no country has committed t o send troops,

and i t appears u n l i k e l y t h a t there w i l l be s u f f i c i e n t
pledges t o mount the large force r e q u i r e d .

L o g i s t i c a l l y , i t would be d i f f i c u l t t o stage a
sizeable force out of K i g a l i , because a l l movement o f
troops and supplies would have t o be done .by a i r .
F:\EmaiI\Data_Soiirce\Al\Record\CD001\may94\039286.html Page 3 of 3

I t i s unclear p r e c i s e l y what the peace enforcement

mission would be or when i t would end.

F i n a l l y , the chances of success appear s l i m ,

p a r t i c u l a r l y without the p a r t i c i p a t i o n o f a major
m i l i t a r y power,

Again, l e t me say t h a t we hope we can work together t o t r y t o

c r a f t a v i a b l e d i p l o m a t i c s o l u t i o n and provide r e l i e f t o the
hundreds of thousands who are s u f f e r i n g as r e s u l t of t h i s t r a g i c
conflict.

Dist r i b u t i o n :

FOR:- W. Anthony K. Lake ( LAKE )

FOR: Samuel R. Berger ( BERGER )
FOR: Mary C. Emery ( EMERY )
FOR: Wilma G. H a l l ( HALL )
FOR: K r i s t e n K. C i c i o ( CICIO )
FOR: Katherine M. Veit { VEIT )
FOR: W i l l i a m H. I t o h ( ITOH )
FOR: K r i s t i e A. Kenney ( KENNEY )
FOR: M. Brooke Darby ( DARBY )
FOR: Cathy M i l l i s o n ( MILLISON )
FOR: James W. Reed ( REED )
FOR: Neal S. Wolin ( WOLIN )
FOR: Ardenia R. Hawkins ( HAWKINS )
CC: Records ( RECORDS )
CC: Donald K. Steinberg ( STEINBERG )
CC: James A. Carman ( CARMAN )
CC; W i l l i a m M. Wise ( WISE )
CC: Richard A. Clarke ( CLARKER )

A d d i t i o n a l Header I n f o r m a t i o n Follows

Date Created: 07-May-1994 11:45

Deletable Flag: Y
DOCNUM: 039286
VMS Filename: OA$SHARE51:ZVFCGTKC8.WPL
Al Folder: MAY94
Message Format:
Message Status: READ
Date Modified: 07-May-1994 11:45
Forward Flag: YES
Read-Receipt Requested: NO
Delivery-Receipt Requested: NO
Message P r i o r i t y : FIRST_CLASS

Y :
F :\Email\Data_Source\A 1 \Recorcl\CDOO 1 \may 94\03 92 87 .html Page 1 of 3

NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

07-May-1994 13:00 EDT

CONFIDENTIAL

MEMORANDUM FOR:
James A. Carman ( CARMAN )
W i l l i a m M. Wise ( WISE )

FROM: Susan E. Rice

(RICE)

SUBJECT: Rwanda TP's as agreed by State and JCS

Suggested T a l k i n g Points f o r Vice President's Meeting

w i t h Boutros-Ghali, Salim Salim e t a l . on Rwanda

We remain extremely concerned about the on-going tragedy i n

Rwanda. This i s a problem t h a t demands immediate i n t e r n a t i o n a l
action.

-- The United States wants t o play a c o n s t r u c t i v e r o l e i n

a l l e v i a t i n g t h e s u f f e r i n g i n Rwanda and supporting e f f o r t s t o
achieve a l a s t i n g p o l i t i c a l s o l u t i o n .

There have been a number of proposed responses t o t h i s

tragedy. We would l i k e t o explore these ideas w i t h you f u r t h e r ,
as w e l l as w i t h r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s of concerned A f r i c a n s t a t e s and
our colleagues i n t h e S e c u r i t y Council.

We have already taken some important steps. We w i l l continue

t o support t h e d i p l o m a t i c e f f o r t s now underway by the UN, OAU,
the Tanzanian government and r e g i o n a l leaders t o reach a
c e a s e f i r e and r e t u r n t o the Arusha peace process. We want t o
consider how t o support the UN e f f o r t t o work w i t h the OAU t o
ensure the s a f e t y o f displaced persons on both sides o f the
border.

-- We are committed t o provide humanitarian r e l i e f , t o implement

the arms embargo and t o have the UN Human Rights Commission f u l l y
i n v e s t i g a t e the s i t u a t i o n i n Rwanda.

In a d d i t i o n , there may be another v i t a l l y important

humanitarian mission t h a t the UN and/or OAU could perform.

We would be i n t e r e s t e d i n e x p l o r i n g the p o s s i b i l i t y o f
c r e a t i n g a p r o t e c t i v e zone along the Rwandan border w i t h an
i n t e r n a t i o n a l f o r c e t o provide s e c u r i t y t o p o p u l a t i o n s , where
refugees and d i s p l a c e d persons are i n the most immediate danger.

Such a mission could not only provide s e c u r i t y f o r

the p r o t e c t i v e zone and the d i s t r i b u t i o n o f
humanitarian assistance but could also a s s i s t i n
refugee r e p a t r i a t i o n and serve i n a p r e v e n t i v e c a p a c i t y
t o deter the spread of violence t o Burundi. The

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY DECLASSIFIED IN PART

PERE. O.13526
F:\Email\Data_Source\Al\Record\CD001\may94\039287.html Page 2 of 3

o p e r a t i o n would r e q u i r e robust r u l e s o f engagement.

This mission may r e q u i r e fewer troops and be less

complex l o g i s t i c a l l y than some other proposals now
being discussed.

I t would, however, need the a c t i v e support of

neighboring c o u n t r i e s , such as Burundi and Tanzania,
and the assent of the Rwandan p a r t i e s .

In c o n s i d e r i n g the a c t u a l humanitarian/peacekeeping
mission i n Rwanda, we must be m i n d f u l not t o upset the
d e l i c a t e p o l i t i c a l balance t h a t p r e s e n t l y e x i s t s i n
Burundi.

We must also work together t o d e f i n e c l e a r l y

achievable o b j e c t i v e s and an end-state such as
r e s e t t l e m e n t o f the d i s p l a c e d persons and refugees
and/or a sunset p r o v i s i o n r e q u i r i n g r e c o n s i d e r a t i o n of
the o p e r a t i o n i n s i x months t o preclude the mission
becoming an open-ended one.

I f capable troops were a v a i l a b l e and t h e mission considered

v i a b l e , the U.S. would f u l l y support t h e o p e r a t i o n p o l i t i c a l l y
and d i p l o m a t i c a l l y and endeavor t o help by p r o v i d i n g f i n a n c i a l
resources, some l i f t , equipment and humanitarian assistance, upon
agreement o f a c l e a r concept of o p e r a t i o n s .

We would expect t o be j o i n e d i n t h i s e f f o r t by other

concerned n a t i o n s .

I f the mission were mounted independently by the OAU or by a

c o l l e c t i o n of concerned s t a t e s w i t h the b l e s s i n g of the UN
S e c u r i t y Council, the U.S. would o f f e r some assistance on a
voluntary basis.

I f the mission were funded through UN assessments, the U.S.

would pay more than 30% of the cost and seek the normal
reimbursement f o r c o n t r i b u t i o n s o f equipment or s e r v i c e s .

-- At the same time, we have serious r e s e r v a t i o n s about

proposals t o e s t a b l i s h a l a r g e peace enforcement mission, which
would operate throughout Rwanda w i t h a mandate t o end the
f i g h t i n g , r e s t o r e law and order and p a c i f y the p o p u l a t i o n .

-- While we have not d e f i n i t i v e l y r u l e d i n or out any p a r t i c u l a r

response, i n our view, there are s e v e r a l problems w i t h t h i s
approach:

EO 13526 1.4d

This mission would be p a r t i c u l a r l y complex, perhaps

even more so than Somalia.

I t remains very unclear whether the p a r t i e s t o the

c o n f l i c t would use force t o oppose such a mission.

Thus f a r , i t i s unclear t h a t any country has

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

F:\Email\Data_Source\A 1 \Record\CDOO 1 \may94\039287.html Page 3 of 3

committed t o send t r o o p s , and i t appears u n l i k e l y t h a t

t h e r e w i l l be s u f f i c i e n t pledges t o mount t h e l a r g e
force required.

L o g i s t i c a l l y , i t would be d i f f i c u l t t o stage a
s i z e a b l e f o r c e o u t o f K i g a l i , because a l l movement o f
t r o o p s and s u p p l i e s would have t o be done through an
a i r p o r t a t t h e e p i c e n t e r o f a c i v i l war.

I t i s u n c l e a r p r e c i s e l y what t h e peace enforcement

m i s s i o n would be o r when i t would end.

F i n a l l y , t h e chances o f success appear s l i m .

Again, l e t me say t h a t we hope we can work t o g e t h e r t o t r y t o

c r a f t a v i a b l e d i p l o m a t i c s o l u t i o n and p r o v i d e r e l i e f t o t h e
hundreds o f thousands who a r e s u f f e r i n g as r e s u l t o f t h i s t r a g i c
conflict.
•

CC: Records RECORDS )

A d d i t i o n a l Header I n f o r m a t i o n Follows

Date Created: 07-May-1994 13:00

D e l e t a b l e Flag: Y
DOCNUM: 039287
VMS Filename: OA$SHARE18:ZVFCILOJN.WPL
Al Folder: MAY94
Message Format:
Message S t a t u s : READ
Date M o d i f i e d : 07-May-1994 13:00
Forward Flag: YES
Read-Receipt Requested: NO
D e l i v e r y - R e c e i p t Requested: NO
Message P r i o r i t y : FIRST_CLASS

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

F:\Email\Data_Source\Al\Record\CD001\may94\039291.html Page 1 of 3

NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

07-May-1994 15:26 EDT

CONFIDENTIAL '

MEMORANDUM FOR:
Donald K. Steinberg ( STEINBERG )
Richard A. Clarke ( CLARKER )

FROM: Susan E. Rice

(RICE)

SUBJECT: F i n a l Rwanda T a l k i n g Points

Suggested T a l k i n g Points f o r Vice President's Meeting

w i t h Boutros-Ghali, Salim Salim e t a l . on Rwanda

We remain extremely concerned about t h e on-going tragedy i n

Rwanda. This i s a problem t h a t demands immediate i n t e r n a t i o n a l
action.

The United States wants t o play a c o n s t r u c t i v e r o l e i n

a l l e v i a t i n g the s u f f e r i n g i n Rwanda and supporting e f f o r t s t o
achieve a l a s t i n g p o l i t i c a l s o l u t i o n .

There have been a number of proposed responses t o t h i s

tragedy. We would l i k e t o explore these ideas w i t h you f u r t h e r ,
as w e l l as w i t h r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s of concerned A f r i c a n s t a t e s and
our colleagues i n t h e S e c u r i t y Council.

-- We have already taken some important steps. We w i l l continue

t o support the d i p l o m a t i c e f f o r t s now underway by the UN, OAU,
the Tanzanian government and r e g i o n a l leaders t o reach a
c e a s e f i r e and r e t u r n t o the Arusha peace process. We want t o
consider how t o support the UN e f f o r t t o work w i t h the OAU t o
ensure the s a f e t y o f d i s p l a c e d persons on both sides o f the
border.

We are committed t o provide humanitarian r e l i e f , t o implement

the arms embargo and t o have the UN Human Rights Commission f u l l y
i n v e s t i g a t e the s i t u a t i o n i n Rwanda.

In a d d i t i o n , there may be another v i t a l l y important

humanitarian mission t h a t the UN and/or OAU could perform.

We would be i n t e r e s t e d i n e x p l o r i n g t h e p o s s i b i l i t y of
c r e a t i n g a p r o t e c t i v e zone along t h e Rwandan border w i t h an
i n t e r n a t i o n a l f o r c e t o provide s e c u r i t y t o p o p u l a t i o n s , where
refugees and d i s p l a c e d persons are i n the most immediate danger.

Such a mission could not only provide s e c u r i t y f o r

the p r o t e c t i v e zone and the d i s t r i b u t i o n of
humanitarian assistance b u t could a l s o a s s i s t i n
refugee r e p a t r i a t i o n and serve i n a p r e v e n t i v e c a p a c i t y
t o deter the spread of v i o l e n c e t o Burundi. The

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY DECLASSIFIED IN PART

PER E. 0. 13526
F:\Email\Data_Source\Al\Record\CD001\may94\039291.html Page 2 of 3

o p e r a t i o n would r e q u i r e robust r u l e s of engagement.

This mission may r e q u i r e fewer troops and be less

complex l o g i s t i c a l l y than some other proposals now
being discussed.

I t would, however, need the a c t i v e support o f

neighboring c o u n t r i e s , such as Burundi and Tanzania,
and the assent of the Rwandan p a r t i e s .

In c o n s i d e r i n g the a c t u a l humanitarian/peacekeeping
mission i n Rwanda, we must be m i n d f u l not t o upset the
d e l i c a t e p o l i t i c a l balance t h a t p r e s e n t l y e x i s t s i n
Burundi.

We must a l s o work together t o d e f i n e c l e a r l y

achievable o b j e c t i v e s and an end-state such as
r e s e t t l e m e n t of the d i s p l a c e d persons and refugees
and/or a sunset p r o v i s i o n r e q u i r i n g r e c o n s i d e r a t i o n of
the o p e r a t i o n i n s i x months t o preclude the mission
becoming an open-ended one.

I f capable troops were a v a i l a b l e and the mission considered

v i a b l e , the U.S. would f u l l y support the o p e r a t i o n p o l i t i c a l l y
and d i p l o m a t i c a l l y and endeavor t o help by p r o v i d i n g f i n a n c i a l
resources, some l i f t , equipment and humanitarian assistance, upon
agreement of a c l e a r concept of operations.

We would expect t o be j o i n e d i n t h i s e f f o r t by other

concerned n a t i o n s .

[ I F ASKED what d i r e c t support U.S. could provide:

I f the mission were mounted independently by the OAU

or by a c o l l e c t i o n of concerned s t a t e s w i t h the
b l e s s i n g of the UN S e c u r i t y Council, the U.S. would
o f f e r some assistance on a v o l u n t a r y basis.

I f the mission were funded through UN assessments,

the U.S. would seek the normal reimbursement f o r
c o n t r i b u t i o n s o f equipment or s e r v i c e s . ]

— At the same time, we have serious r e s e r v a t i o n s about

proposals t o e s t a b l i s h a l a r g e peace enforcement mission, which
would operate throughout Rwanda w i t h a mandate t o end the
f i g h t i n g , r e s t o r e law and order and p a c i f y the p o p u l a t i o n .

While we have not d e f i n i t i v e l y r u l e d i n or out any p a r t i c u l a r

response, i n our view, there are several problems w i t h t h i s
approach:

EO 13526 1.4d

This mission would be p a r t i c u l a r l y complex, perhaps

even more so than Somalia.

I t remains very unclear whether the p a r t i e s t o the

c o n f l i c t would use force t o oppose such a mission.

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

F:\Email\Data_Source\Al\Record\CD001\may94\039291.html Page 3 of3

Thus f a r , i t i s u n c l e a r t h a t any c o u n t r y has

committed t o send t r o o p s , and i t appears u n l i k e l y t h a t
t h e r e w i l l be s u f f i c i e n t pledges t o mount t h e l a r g e
force required.

L o g i s t i c a l l y , i t would be d i f f i c u l t t o stage a
s i z e a b l e f o r c e o u t o f K i g a l i , because a l l movement o f
t r o o p s and s u p p l i e s would have t o be done through an
a i r p o r t a t t h e e p i c e n t e r o f a c i v i l war.

I t i s u n c l e a r p r e c i s e l y what t h e peace enforcement

m i s s i o n would be o r when i t would end.

F i n a l l y , t h e chances o f success appear s l i m .

Again, l e t me say t h a t we hope we can work t o g e t h e r t o t r y t o

c r a f t a v i a b l e d i p l o m a t i c s o l u t i o n and p r o v i d e r e l i e f t o t h e
• hundreds o f thousands who are s u f f e r i n g as r e s u l t o f t h i s t r a g i c
conflict.

CC: Records RECORDS )

A d d i t i o n a l Header I n f o r m a t i o n Follows

Date Created: 07-May-1994 15:25

D e l e t a b l e Flag: Y
DOCNUM: 039291
VMS Filename: OA$SHARE35:ZVFCM26S7.WPL
Al Folder: MAY94
Message Format:
Message S t a t u s : READ
Date M o d i f i e d : 07-May-1994 15:25
Forward Flag: YES
Read-Receipt Requested: NO
D e l i v e r y - R e c e i p t Requested: NO
Message P r i o r i t y : FIRST_CLASS

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

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NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

07-May-1994 16:18 EDT

CONriDENTIAL

MEMORANDUM FOR:
Ernest J. Wilson I I I WILSON )

FROM : Susan E. Rice

(RICE)

SUBJECT: rwanda t a l k i n g p o i n t s

Ernie--

Rwanda p o i n t s FYI. Have a great t r i p (and b r i n g me back an

ANC e l e c t i o n or inauguaral T - s h i r t ) ! !

Susan

CC: Records ( RECORDS )

A d d i t i o n a l Header I n f o r m a t i o n Follows

Date Created: 07-May-1994 16:17

Deletable Flag: Y
DOCNUM: 039294
VMS Filename: OA$SHAREl3:ZVFCNARRL.WPL
Al Folder: MAY94
Message Format:
Message Status: READ
Date M o d i f i e d : 07-May-1994 16:17
Forward Flag: YES
Read-Receipt Requested: NO
Delivery-Receipt Requested: NO
Message P r i o r i t y : FIRST_CLASS
[':
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

07-May-1994 15:54 EDT

CONFIDENTIAL

MEMORANDUM FOR: SEE BELOW

FROM: Susan E. Rice

(RICE)

SUBJECT: F i n a l D r a f t Rwanda T a l k i n g Points

Attached are f i n a l d r a f t t a l k i n g p o i n t s on Rwanda f o r

p o s s i b l e use by the Vice President.

^ DECLASSIFIED IN PART
CLINTON LIBRARY PH r n j v PERE.0.13526
F:\Emai]\Data_Source\A l\Record\CD001\may94\039294.html Page 2 of4

They have the f u l l support o f Mr. Lake and Mr. Berger as w e l l

as NSC s t a f f , State, JCS, USUN. OSD has c l e a r e d at t h e DAS
l e v e l and we expect senior l e v e l concurrence s h o r t l y .

OMB recommends against the Vice President meeting w i t h

Boutros-Ghali and Salim Salim on t h i s s u b j e c t , because OMB
opposes any peacekeeping e f f o r t i n s i d e Rwanda and b e l i e v e s
f u r t h e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n should be given t o a l t e r n a t i v e o p t i o n s .

However, i f the meeting does take place and t h e r e i s

d i s c u s s i o n o f options f o r p r o v i d i n g s e c u r i t y t o persons
i n s i d e Rwanda, OMB would not o b j e c t t o the f i n a l v e r s i o n of
the t a l k i n g p o i n t s as d r a f t e d .

Distribution:

FOR: W i l l i a m M. Wise ( WISE )

FOR: James A. Carman ( CARMAN )
CC Records ( RECORDS )
CC Donald K. Steinberg ( STEINBERG
CC Mary C. Emery ( EMERY )
CC Wilma G. H a l l ( HALL )
CC K r i s t e n K. C i c i o ( CICIO )
CC Katherine M. V e i t ( VEIT )
CC W i l l i a m H. I t o h ( ITOH )
CC K r i s t i e A. Kenney ( KENNEY )
CC M. Brooke Darby ( DARBY )
CC Cathy M i l l i s o n ( MILLISON
CC James W. Reed ( REED )
CC Neal S. Wolin ( WOLIN )
CC Ardenia R. Hawkins ( HAWKINS )

•
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

07-May-199'5 15:26 EDT

CONFIDENTIAL

MEMORANDUM FOR:
Donald K. Steinberg ( STEINBERG )
Richard A. Clarke ( CLARKER )

FROM: Susan E. Rice

(RICE)

SUBJECT: F i n a l Rwanda T a l k i n g Points

CC: Records ( RECORDS )

Suggested T a l k i n g Points f o r Vice President's Meeting

w i t h Boutros-Ghali, Salim Salim e t a l . on Rwanda

We remain extremely concerned about t h e on-going tragedy i n

Rwanda. This i s a problem t h a t demands immediate i n t e r n a t i o n a l
action.

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

F:\Email\Data_Source\Al\Record\CD001\may94\039294.html Page 3 of 4

The United States wants t o play a c o n s t r u c t i v e r o l e i n

a l l e v i a t i n g the s u f f e r i n g i n Rwanda and s u p p o r t i n g e f f o r t s t o
achieve a l a s t i n g p o l i t i c a l s o l u t i o n .

There have been a number of proposed responses t o t h i s

tragedy. We would l i k e t o explore these ideas w i t h you f u r t h e r ,
as w e l l as w i t h r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s of concerned A f r i c a n s t a t e s and
our colleagues i n the S e c u r i t y Council.

We have already taken some important steps. We w i l l continue

t o support the d i p l o m a t i c e f f o r t s now underway by the UN, OAU,
the Tanzanian government and r e g i o n a l leaders t o reach a
c e a s e f i r e and r e t u r n t o the Arusha peace process. We want t o
consider how t o support the UN e f f o r t t o work w i t h the OAU t o
ensure the s a f e t y of d i s p l a c e d persons on both sides of the
border.

We are committed t o provide humanitarian r e l i e f , t o implement

the arms embargo and t o have the UN Human Rights Commission f u l l y
i n v e s t i g a t e the s i t u a t i o n i n Rwanda.

In a d d i t i o n , t h e r e may be another v i t a l l y important

humanitarian mission t h a t the UN and/or OAU could perform.

We would be i n t e r e s t e d i n e x p l o r i n g the p o s s i b i l i t y of
c r e a t i n g a p r o t e c t i v e zone along the Rwandan border w i t h an
i n t e r n a t i o n a l f o r c e t o provide s e c u r i t y t o p o p u l a t i o n s , where
refugees and d i s p l a c e d persons are i n the most immediate danger.

Such a mission could not only provide s e c u r i t y f o r

the p r o t e c t i v e zone and the d i s t r i b u t i o n of
humanitarian assistance but could a l s o a s s i s t i n
refugee r e p a t r i a t i o n and serve i n a p r e v e n t i v e capacity
t o deter the spread of violence t o Burundi. The
o p e r a t i o n would r e q u i r e robust r u l e s o f engagement.

This mission may r e q u i r e fewer troops and be less

complex l o g i s t i c a l l y than some other proposals now
being discussed.

I t would, however, need the a c t i v e support o f

neighboring c o u n t r i e s , such as Burundi and Tanzania,
and the assent of the Rwandan p a r t i e s .

In c o n s i d e r i n g the a c t u a l humanitarian/peacekeeping
mission i n Rwanda, we must be m i n d f u l not t o upset the
d e l i c a t e p o l i t i c a l balance t h a t p r e s e n t l y e x i s t s i n
Burundi.

We must also work together t o d e f i n e c l e a r l y

achievable o b j e c t i v e s and an end-state such as
r e s e t t l e m e n t of the displaced persons and refugees
and/or a sunset p r o v i s i o n r e q u i r i n g r e c o n s i d e r a t i o n of
the o p e r a t i o n i n s i x months t o preclude the mission
becoming an open-ended one.

I f capable troops were a v a i l a b l e and the mission considered

v i a b l e , the U.S. would f u l l y support the o p e r a t i o n p o l i t i c a l l y
and d i p l o m a t i c a l l y and endeavor t o help by p r o v i d i n g f i n a n c i a l

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

F:\Email\Data_Source\Al\Record\CD001\may94\039294.htm] Page 4 of 4

resources, some l i f t , equipment and humanitarian assistance, upon

agreement o f a c l e a r concept of o p e r a t i o n s .

We would expect t o be j o i n e d i n t h i s e f f o r t by other

concerned n a t i o n s .

[IF ASKED what d i r e c t support U.S. could p r o v i d e :

I f the mission were mounted independently by the OAU

or by a c o l l e c t i o n o f concerned s t a t e s w i t h the
b l e s s i n g o f the UN S e c u r i t y Council, the U.S. would
o f f e r some assistance on a v o l u n t a r y b a s i s .

I f the mission were funded through UN assessments,

the U.S. would seek the normal reimbursement f o r
c o n t r i b u t i o n s o f equipment or s e r v i c e s . ]

At the same time, we have serious r e s e r v a t i o n s about

proposals t o e s t a b l i s h a l a r g e peace enforcement mission, which
would operate throughout Rwanda w i t h a mandate t o end t h e
f i g h t i n g , r e s t o r e law and order and p a c i f y the p o p u l a t i o n .

While we have not d e f i n i t i v e l y r u l e d i n or out any p a r t i c u l a r

response, i n our view, there are several problems w i t h t h i s
approach:

EO 13526 1.4d

This mission would be p a r t i c u l a r l y complex, perhaps

even more so than Somalia.

I t remains very unclear whether the p a r t i e s t o the

c o n f l i c t would use force t o oppose such a mission.

Thus f a r , i t i s unclear t h a t any country has

committed t o send troops, and i t appears u n l i k e l y t h a t
there w i l l be s u f f i c i e n t pledges t o mount the l a r g e
force r e q u i r e d .

L o g i s t i c a l l y , i t would be d i f f i c u l t t o stage a
s i z e a b l e f o r c e out o f K i g a l i , because a l l movement of
troops and s u p p l i e s would have t o be done through an
a i r p o r t a t the e p i c e n t e r o f a c i v i l war.

I t i s unclear p r e c i s e l y what the peace enforcement

mission would be or when i t would end.

F i n a l l y , the chances o f success appear s l i m .

Again, l e t me say t h a t we hope we can work together t o t r y t o

c r a f t a v i a b l e d i p l o m a t i c s o l u t i o n and provide r e l i e f t o the
hundreds of thousands who are s u f f e r i n g as r e s u l t o f t h i s t r a g i c
conflict.

LINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

 3r EO 13526 3.5c

CLRSSIFICflTlON
fin 8 5 22

W SITE A
CIA
TIME TRANSMnTED (LOCAL) MSG NBR J 7^' TWE RECEIVED (LOCAL)

cnOM EO 13526 3.5c nPPfrP/nPCl^ ftU^i 3.5c pHnMPfinn EO 13526 3.5c

SUBJECT. I^VO^^D^ -PvCO

DELIVERY INSTRUCTIONS: PAGES ^

(INCLUDINQ COVER)
• HOLD FOR NORMAL DUTY HOURS/ROUTINE
(XI IMMEDIATELY/URGENT
NOTE; FURNISH AFTER DUTY HOUR CONTACT TELEPHONE NUMBER
FOR EACH ADDEE REQUIRING AFTER DUTY HOUR DELIVERY

TRANSMIT TO
AGENCY INDIVIDUAL (NAME) OFRCE ROOM NBR PHONE NBR
TO/PHO

X vj

6.11 ^ ^ O S

REMARKS:

WASHFAX COVER SHEET WASHFAX OPERATOR (703) 482-7680

EO 13526 3.5c
31 DECLASSIFIED
CLRSSIFICflTlON PER EiO. 13526
30Vd 8rEPr009tM 'ON £2:91 C6. •80'50 tHS)
 SECRET
EO 13526 3.5c

8 May 1994

Rwanda: Comments on State/10 PKO Options Paper

1. The CIA does not c l e a r p o l i c y papers, That s a i d , a few

observations on the paper f o l l o w :

The c a p a b i l i t i e s and i n t e n t i o n s of the FAR, RPF and

m i l i t i a f o r c e s are o m i t t e d from 10's d r a f t paper.
Attached t o t h i s memo i s a b r i e f assessment of the
p o t e n t i a l s e c u r i t y t h r e a t s t o peacekeepers.
The d r a f t options paper understates D a l l a i r e ' s proposal.
He c a l l s f o r a f o r c e t o insure the d e l i v e r y of
humanitarian a i d and " t o prevent c o n t i n u i n g massacres and
to permit the f r e e movement o f people". This mission i s ,
considerably more complex and dangerous than the v e r s i o n
described i n the 10 paper.
The o b j e c t i v e of a PKO o p e r a t i o n , " b r i n g i n g humanitarian
assistance t o the v i c t i m s o f the c o n f l i c t " w i l l almost
c e r t a i n l y be viewed i n Rwanda as a p r o - T u t s i o p e r a t i o n .
"Enclaves" would be l a r g e l y populated by T u t s i s w h i l e the
"hoodlums and r o v i n g gangs" are the Hutu m i l i t i a s who we
b e l i e v e are d i r e c t e d and s u p p l i e d by elements o f the FAR
and Hutu h a r d l i n e o f f i c i a l s . The PKO would t h e r e f o r e be
c o n f r o n t i n g a semi-organized f o r c e t h a t i s backed by key
elements of t h e m i l i t a r y and government. H o s t i l i t y toward
the PKO by many members of the Hutu m a j o r i t y p o p u l a t i o n
could be considerable, e s p e c i a l l y i f the PKO began
disarming Hutu m i l i t i a s . The m i l i t i a s can e a s i l y hide
t h e i r weapons ( AK-47S, grenades and pangas) from the PKO
only t o take them out a t n i g h t t o k i l l c i v i l i a n s or ambush
peacekeepers. House-to-house searches f o r weapons w i l l
t u r n the Hutu p o p u l a t i o n against the PKO, produce very few
weapons, and subject PKO forces t o considerable danger.
The Rwandan m i l i t a r y and Hutu m i l i t i a s have already
demonstrated t h a t they w i l l not h e s i t a t e t o k i l l UN forces
who stand i n t h e i r way.

With so many moderate Hutu p o l i t i c i a n s and Hutu c i v i l

servants who might have been w i l l i n g t o work w i t h T u t s i s

EO 13526 3.5c EO 13526 3.5c

EO 13526 3.5c
SECRET
30Vd 2ceFt'009M 'ON £Z-9\ P6 'so 'so tns)
 ^JBBCRBT
EO 13526 3.5c

k i l l e d by the m i l i t i a s , Rwandan p o l i t i c s i s l i k e l y t o
become t h e p o l i t i c s o f extremism. A PKO can h a r d l y expect
t o remain n e u t r a l i n an environment o f extremism where
each side w i l l attempt t o t u r n the PKO against the o t h e r
or blame the PKO w i t h t a k i n g s i d e s . For example, what
does the PKO do about the Hutu e x t r e m i s t r a d i o broadcasts?
Does the PKo attempt t o stop arms from c r o s s i n g the
border?.
One lesson from Somalia i s t h a t d e l i v e r i n g humanitarian
a i d i n a v i o l e n t environment i s v e r y "troop i n t e n s i v e " and
i s only the f i r s t step i n a l a r g e r mission. Securing
enclaves and d e l i v e r i n g a i d merely freezes the l a r g e r
p o l i t i c a l and e t h n i c problem i n place. When the troops
e v e n t u a l l y depart--or are f o r c e d t o withdraw as combat
c a s u a l t i e s mount, as i n Somalia--the T u t s i s i n Rwanda w i l l
again be a t r i s k and the refugees w i l l s t i l l be refugees.
What are the e x i t c o n d i t i o n s f o r t h e PKO? No massacres
today, no massacres next week, o r no massacres next month?
What p o l i t i c a l steps i n Rwanda need t o be taken before
such e x i t c o n d i t i o n s are met? I s r e c o n c i l i a t i o n l i k e l y
given the p o l a r i z e d p o l i t i c s and c u r r e n t e t h n i c slaughter?
(S NF)

EO 13526 3.5c
CECRET

aovd gpeppooQpi 'ON es 9i vt .

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 OBCRET
EO 13526 3.5c I

7 May 1994

Rwanda: Threats to Peacekeeping Forces

l. Rwanda could easily become a dangerous environment f o r

international peacekeepers.
Government and RPF forces, equipped and p r o f i c i e n t i n the
use of l i g h t arms and small a r t i l l e r y , could become deadly
opponents of a peacekeeping force. I n addition, the Hutu
m i l i t i a s armed with automatic weapons and grenades could
attack peacekeepers.
-- The Rwandan m i l i t a r y and Hutu m i l i t i a s have already
demonstrated that they w i l l not hesitate to k i l l UN forces
who stand i n t h e i r way. [ 3.5c
2. Peacekeeping forces i n Rwanda would depend on vulnerable lines
of communication and supply. K i g a l i i s landlocked. Supplies
would need to pass on roads that could easily be closed by h o s t i l e
forces. K i g a l i a i r p o r t i s vulnerable to attack; i t has repeatedly
been closed several times during the l a s t month by mortar f i r e .
The RPF and Rwandan m i l i t a r y posses a n t i - a i r c r a f t weapons and i n
early A p r i l elements of government security forces probably f i r e d
the a n t i - a i r c r a f t missiles that downed President Habyarimana's
airplane. This week a Canadian r e l i e f plane was h i t by small arms
f i r e . I 3.5c 1
M i l i t a r y Capabilities:
3. Government m i l i t a r y (FAR). The army has about 25
infantry battalions t o t a l l i n g between 15,000 and 20,000 men.
After a month of f i g h t i n g , DIA estimates that about 10,000
e f f e c t i v e troops remain under government control. Most Western
m i l i t a r y observers believe the FAR performed poorly i n recent
years, but i t s a b i l i t y to withstand the RPF's assault on K i g a l i
suggests that at least some units remain e f f e c t i v e l y organized and
moderately p r o f i c i e n t . I EO 13526 1.4c |FAR weaponry includes 82
mm mortars and 122 mm howitzers, SA-7 a n t i - a i r c r a f t missiles, 75
mm r e c o i l l e s s r i f l e s and panhard armored cars. 3.5c
4. Gendarmerie. Before 6 A p r i l the paramilitary force
t o t a l l e d 7,200 men arrayed i n 10 t e r r i t o r i a l groups. Their

EO 13526 3.5c EO 13526 3.5c

EO 13526 3.5c
DECLASSIFIED IN PART
SECRET PER E. O. 13526
30Vd 2 f e f f 0 0 9 c i 'ON £2:9 I f6 30 'so <ns>
 . Q.B-GRBT_
EO 13526 3.5c

SUBJECT: Rwanda: Threats t o Peacekeeping Forces

c u r r e n t s t r e n g t h i s unknown. They probably are only l i g h t l y

armed, but some u n i t s may have mortars and machine guns. | 3.5c
5. M i l i t i a s . The m i l i t i a of former President Habyarimana's
MRND, the "Interahamwe"--or "Those who a t t a c k together"--was found
i n 1992. The MRND's a l l y , the C o a l i t i o n f o r the Defense of the
Republic (CDR)--which has long c a l l e d f o r the e x t e r m i n a t i o n of
Tutsis--has i t s own m i l i t i a , the "Impuzamugamhi" o r "Those who
have the same g o a l " . We b e l i e v e t h a t the m i l i t i a s were organized,
t r a i n e d , and d i r e c t e d by senior m i l i t a r y o f f i c e r s and Hutu
h a r d l i n e p o l i t i c i a n s . Almost c e r t a i n l y numbering i n the
thousands, t h e l o c a l l y - b a s e d m i l i t i a s have been accused by a i d
workers o f s y s t e m a t i c a l l y k i l l i n g T u t s i s and moderate Hutus under
the d i r e c t i o n of l o c a l o f f i c i a l s and i n cooperation w i t h the
m i l i t a r y . E a r l i e r t h i s year, 1 EO 13526 1.4c Ithe m i l i t i a s
were being t r a i n e d by t h e m i l i t a r y and were r e c e i v i n g modern
weapons, i n c l u d i n g AK-47S and G-3s. M i l i t i a arms caches were
r e p o r t e d l y e s t a b l i s h e d around the country. | EO 13526 1.4c
r e p o r t e d m i l i t i a s working together w i t h the m i l i t a r y i n manning
checkpoints. I 3.5c
6. Rwandan P a t r i o t i c Front (RPF).] EO 13526 1.4c |the
RPF has 13,000 e f f e c t i v e combat troops out of a f o r c e t h a t had
been estimated as h i g h as 20,000. Although p r i m a r i l y a l i g h t
i n f a n t r y f o r c e , the RPF has 107 mm towed rocket launchers, 120 mm
mortars, and SA-7 a n t i - a i r c r a f t m i s s i l e s . Highly mobile and
s k i l l e d i n g u e r r i l l a t a c t i c s , the RPF i s g e n e r a l l y considered t o
be w e l l d i s c i p l i n e d . I EO 13526 1.4c Isay the RPF has not conducted
mass k i l l i n g s i n t e r r i t o r y i t c o n t r o l s , but the rebels have
executed Hutu m i l i t a r y and m i l i t i a b e l i e v e d t o be responsible f o r
e t h n i c k i l l i n g s . 1 3.5c I
Intentions:
7. RPF. Although the RPF has g e n e r a l l y cooperated w i t h
UNAMIR f o r c e s , i t could t a r g e t peacekeeping forces t h a t i t
b e l i e v e d were s i d i n g w i t h government f o r c e s , were p r o t e c t i n g those
responsible f o r mass k i l l i n g s , o r were t h r e a t e n i n g RPF c o n t r o l l e d
t e r r i t o r y . \ 3.5c
8. FAR. FAR f o r c e s , e s p e c i a l l y t h e P r e s i d e n t i a l Guard, have
already attacked and k i l l e d UN troops. Ten Belgians and several
Ghanaian and Pakistan s o l d i e r s were k i l l e d and wounded by FAR
forces i n e a r l y A p r i l . E a r l i e r t h i s month, several Ghanaians were
s e r i o u s l y wounded i n what the UN described as a d e l i b e r a t e a t t a c k
on UNAMIR f o r c e s , almost c e r t a i n l y by FAR f o r c e s . 3.5c

EO 13526 3.5c
CECRET

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 CECRET
EO 13526 3.5c

SUBJECT: Rwanda: Threats t o Peacekeeping Forces

9. The M i l i t i a s . Bands of m i l i t i a s , armed w i t h AK-47's and

roaming the countryside, would pose a serious r i s k t o small
peacekeeping u n i t s posted t o i s o l a t e d towns o r p a t r o l l i n g roads.
The m i l i t i a could evolve i n t o a Hutu-extremist g u e r r i l l a f o r c e .
I f so, t h e r i s k of ambush, sniper a t t a c k s , and d r i v e - b y shooting
would be h i g h . Probably o p e r a t i n g close t o home v i l l a g e s , t h e
m i l i t i a s would have the advantage of knowing the t e r r a i n , e a s i l y
o b t a i n i n g l o c a l i n t e l l i g e n c e on peacekeeping forces, and enjoying
p r o t e c t i o n and resupply from t h e i r f r i e n d s and r e l a t i v e s . 3.5c
10. Other Risks t o Peacekeeping Forces
-- Vulnerable Line? o f Communication. Rwanda's h i l l y t e r r a i n
o f f e r s numerous o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o ambush supply convoys or
p a t r o l s . Landmines are common weapons; over 50,000
landmines a r e s t i l l uncleared i n n o r t h e r n Rwanda. The RPF
and FAR have mortars and SA-7s t h a t could shut down n e a r l y
.anv a i r p o r t o r l a n d i n g s t r i p . For example, by m i d - A p r i l ,
EO 13526 1.4c the roads out of K i g a l i so dangerous
t h a t forces were evacuated by a i r r a t h e r t h a t overland. '
-- Armed C i t i z e n s . The m i l i t i a s , u n d i s t i n g u i s h a b l e from
unarmed c i v i l i a n s , could e a s i l y stage t e r r o r i s t h i t - a n d -
run a t t a c k s against i s o l a t e d m i l i t a r y outposts o r o f f - d u t y
soldiers.
-- Cross F i r e . Even i f peacekeepers were not d i r e c t l y
t a r g e t e d by m i l i t a r y forces o r m i l i t i a , resumed f i g h t i n g
between the FAR and RPF would s u b j e c t the peacekeepers t o
the r i s k o f s t r a y rounds. K i g a l i a i r p o r t and other
s t r a t e g i c l o c a t i o n s occupied by peacekeeping forces would
almost c e r t a i n l y be fought over by the two m i l i t a r i e s ,
endangering peacekeepers and t h r e a t e n i n g t h e i r escape
routes. Several UNAMIR s o l d i e r s have already been k i l l e d
by s t r a y g u n f i r e . | 3.5c I

EO 13526 3.5c
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 Director of SECRET
Central Intelligence
EO 13526 3.5c

Richard1i Clarke*
Director for Global Issues and
Multilateral Affairs
National Security Council
Room 302, OEOB

National I n t e 11 i g e n c e C o u n c i 1 M e m o r a n d u m

Rwanda and Burundi: Societies in Crisis

Key After the slaughter of an estimated 200,000 Rwandans, the tempo of
Points ethnic bloodletting is slowing. Nonetheless, the massacres—of an even
greater magnitude than the killings in Burundi last year—are creating
an enormous and longlasting humanitarian crisis. In both countries,
extremists with access to military power are using ethnic fears to derail
democratic elections and power-sharing negotiations. Continued unrest
has taken a heavy toll on moderates in both ethnic communities.| 3.5c

In Rwanda, the Tutsi Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) controls about

half the country; it is contesting the capital and moving toward success.
Should the rebels triumph, they will probably be able to co-opt other
groups into an RPF-controlled regime. The only other way to end the
bloodshed might be a Cyprus-type partition, entailing enormous
population movements given the intermingling of majority Hutus and
minority Tutsis. 3.5c

The disorder in one country feeds unrest in the other. Moreover,

financingfromthe large Rwandan and to a lesser extent Burundian
exile communities keeps revanchist movements going. | 3.5c

We expect the number of Rwandans who have fled or have been

displaced within the country to grow into the millions. Tanzania,
Uganda, Zaire, and Burundi fear that the refugee influx will bring
violence and that the human waves will include military forces. | 3.5c

At the same time, aid donors are fatigued. Given their limited mandate,
UN peacekeepers in Rwanda could not slow the bloodbath, and ethnic
unrest has swept away whatever gains were achieved by the large flows
of economic aid to both countries. 3.5c
This memorandum was prepared by the National Intelligence Officer for Africa. It is based on
discussions among intelligence community analysts at a teleconference held on 10 May 1994.
It way coordinated with representatives of CIA, DIA, State/INR, NSA, and Army.

NIC 00270/94
13 May 1994
EO 13526 3.5c
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EO 13526 3.5c

Rwanda and Burundi: Societies in Crisis

Never before in its 131-year history has the International
Committee of the Red Cross seen at first hand such
unmitigated hatred leading to the extermination of a
significant part of the civilian population.

ICRC Aide-Memoire to Governments on the Rwanda

Crisis, 29 April 1994

In both Rwanda and Burundi, the traditional enmity between the

Hutus, who comprise 80-90 percent of the populations, and the
Tutsis, who comprise the minority, will continue to fuel ethnic
conflict—derailing efforts toward peaceful power sharing. Although
the tempo of ethnic bloodletting in Rwanda is slowing, the massacres
are creating an enormous and longlasting humanitarian crisis.] 3.5"c~

Brutal slaughter of Following the death of the Rwandan and Burundian presidents in a
hundreds of thousands plane crash on 6 April, hardline Rwandan Hutus, using their control of
causes even more the army, unleashed massacres of Tutsis and moderate Hutus to scuttle
Rwandans to flee the Arusha Accord that was to have given Tutsis greater political
their homes power. Aid agencies fear that more than 200,000 Rwandans—mainly
Tutsis and Hutu moderates—have died and more than 300,000 from
both groups have fled the country. At least 500,000 have been
displaced within Rwanda, a number that couldriseas high as 3
1
million. 1 iTic

Burundi couldfollow The death of the Burundian president has not sparked significant
Rwanda's bloody lead unrest, but renewed violence could erupt in Burundi at any time.
Democratic presidential elections in June 1993—in which Melchior
Ndadaye became the country's first Hutu president—have been
followed by three attempted coups by the Tutsi-controlled military and
the murder of Ndadaye and other leaders. The coup attempt last
October set off ethnic bloodletting that killed as many as 50,000 and
drove another 600,000 or so Burundians into neighboring countries.
Recent developments—including the latest failed coup, disarmament
of Hutu militias and civilians, and a Tutsi-inspired constitutional

1
Out of the 8.4 million population of Rwanda, about 1.3 million, or 15 percent, are
estimated to be Tutsi. The International Committee of the Red Cross says between
100,000 and 500,000 people have been killed. Several international humanitarian
agencies have characterized the situation in Rwanda as genocide, considering that
between 8 percent to a possible 40 percent of the Tutsi population may have been
slaughtered. Burundi's population is 6.1 million, with Tutsis comprising over 15
percent, or some 900,000 people. (U)

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EO 13526 3.5c

challenge to President Ntibantunganya's legitimacy--have added to

tensions. | 3,5c I

:
. • Rwanda and Burundi to 1993
: "0 C^

Unlike most African states, Rwanda and Burundi were not artificial
creations of colonial rule; their existence as political entities goes back
several centuries. Between the 15th and 17th centuries, Tutsi herders
moved into the areafromEthiopia and established dominance over ;
Hutu farmers. Hutus traditionally were the social inferiors of the Tutsi
nobility, who exchanged cattle for personal services. Both groups
share social structures and the related Kirundi and Kinyarwanda
languages. (U) •.

Rwanda's Tutsi monarchy traditionally was more centralized and

authoritarian than in Burundi, where the king's power rested on a
shifting set of factional alliances. Rwanda also was marked by sharper
social distinctions between Tutsis and Hutus. German and Belgian
rule in the 20th century highlighted ethnic differences in both
countries, as colonial authorities gave Tutsis disproportionate access to
education and government jobs. (U)

Even before Rwanda gained independence in 1962, the Hutus had

gained political power in civil strife marked by widespread ethnic [• \.;
violence and theflightof hundreds of thousands of Tutsis into exile.
Two presidents—the southerner Gr^goire Kayibanda (1962-1973) and
the northerner Juvenal Habyarimana (1973-1994)—ruled over single-
party regimes. The country enjoyed relative stability and ethnic peace
until Tutsi exiles of the Rwandan Patriotic Front invadedfromUganda
in 1990. The Rwandan peace pact in August 1993 (Arusha Accord)
that ended the civil war between the Hutu-led government and the
mainly Tutsi rebels was derailed by Hutu extremists, f 3.5c

In Burundi, Tutsis remained in control until last year. The contrast

between Hutu rule in Rwanda and the group's oppression in Burundi
led to Hutu uprisings—in 1965, 1969,1972, and 1988—that resulted
in hundreds of thousands of deaths. Each Hutu attack fueled Tutsi :
fears of extermination, and each bloody repression reinforced the
Hutus' desire for revenge. Periodic ethnic unrest resulted in three
successful coups d'itat and many failed attempts. The last Tutsi
president, Pierre Buyoya, judged the situation was untenable and
orchestrated last year's election and transfer of power to a Hutu
successor. 3.5c

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 SECRET
EO 13526 3.5c

Forces For Instability

The traditional enmity between Tutsis and Hutus continues to drive

events in Rwanda and Burundi. Since independence, hardliners—from
both groups and in both countries—have led coups and fueled
massacres to block political and military power sharing and quash their
ethnic rivals. 3.5c

In both countries, political and social institutions are too poorly

developed and too tied to ethnic power bases to allow a peacefiil
transition to multi-ethnic power sharing. The forces for instability
Too many obstacles to have repeatedly overwhelmed efforts at democratic elections, power-
reconciliation sharing accords, and ethnic reconciliation: 3.5c

Ethnic Intermingling. Hutus and Tutsis live interspersed across

the two countries. This intensifies episodes of tribal violence,
because ethnically motivated killers manipulated by political elites
frequently know victims and can incite their kinsmen to
participate. Moreover, this demographic pattern makes it difficult
to impose peace by separating the warring groups. 3.5c

Spillover Effects. Disorder in one country feeds unrest in the

other. The most concrete effect is the inter-flow of refugees, who
strain the countries' limited resources and spread ethnic horror
stories among their kinsmen. The cycle of violence strengthens the
perception of duplicity on both sides and convinces each side that
it cannot risk sharing power with the other. 3.5c

Financing the Exile Resources. Many Rwandan Tutsi exiles work as

Tutsi minority professionals and businessmen in neighboring states, as well as in
Europe and North America. Contributionsfromthis community
have been an important resource for the RPF and are likely to
continue to be available to support armed Tutsi movements in
Rwanda and perhaps in Burundi. 3.5c

Poverty. With annual per capita GNP of less than $300, Rwanda
and Burundi are among the world's poorest countries; they are also
the two most densely populated countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Since 1990, moreover, Rwanda's economy has shrunk by more
than 10 percent and Burundi's by about 5 percent, while their
populations have grown about 10 percent. Recent violence has
kept farmersfromtending the coffee crop—the main export of
both countries—further battering rural incomes. In Rwanda, the
RPF's demand for land for returning Tutsi exiles has been a

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sticking point. A lasting solution in Burundi would have to

include a role in the economy for Tutsi soldiers and civil servants
replaced by Hutus. | 3 5 C

Forces Inhibiting Reconciliation

The recent violence has strengthened those elements in the social and
political structure of Rwanda—and to a lesser extent in Burundi—that
tend to block peaceful resolution of ethnic conflict: [ 3.5c

Few moderates left Middle Ground Eroded Much of the recent violence has targeted
on either side leaders seeking a common ground between Hutus and Tutsis. In
Rwanda, most moderate Hutu leaders appear to have been
murdered or to have fled, leaving the interim government under the
control of hardliners. The RPF's public statements indicate the
group views all surviving government leaders as complicit in the
slaughter. Until the violence ends, Rwandan moderates will be
unwilling to come forward. In Burundi, the coup attempts and
efforts to disarm civilians appear to be polarizing the political
leadership of both ethnic groups. 3.5c

Splits within each • Factionalism. Continued unrest is increasing the number of

group also growing factional fault lines in both countries and is undermining the ability
of local leaders to convince their followers to adhere to a
settlement. In Rwanda, government forces are divided between
northern and southern elements. The rebels seem more unified, but
divisions may develop between the Tutsi military leadership and
Hutus serving as political window dressing or between Tutsis
seeking revenge for the massacre of their kinsmen and others more
disposed to reconciliation with the Hutu majority.[ 3.5c

Similar factionalism is rife in Burundi. Tutsi soldiers' political

loyalties and support for coup attempts derivefromtheir
membership in rival clans. The Hutu community is split between
PALIPEHUTU—which says only a violent uprising can earn
Hutus equality with Tutsis—and the ruling FRODEBU party,
which in tum is split between moderates and radicals. 3 5c

Obstacles to Outside Help. In both countries, manipulation by

contending factions of outside mediators and peacekeepers has
made it much harder for disinterested parties—such as the UN,
OAU, and Western powers—to help find or implement peaceful
solutions. Rwandan government forces, after attacking UN

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EO 13526 3.5c

peacekeeping troops in early April and accusing the Belgian

contingent of complicity in President Habyarimana's death, now
say they want an expanded multilateral military presence, probably
to block new RPF gains. The RPF has hedged statements that it
would welcome a multilateral force to protect aid deliveries,
probably because the rebels believe they will win in the weeks
needed to deploy such a force. In Burundi, opposition by the
Army's Tutsi hierarchy has sharply restricted the mission and
size—from 200 to 31—of an OAU military observer force that is
intended to build confidence between the regime and the troops.
3.5c

Neighboring states Meddling Neighbors. Uganda and Zaire will continue to support
promoting their their allies in Rwanda and Burundi. Uganda is likely to keep
own interests giving the RPF weaponry, logistical support, and sanctuary, and
could provide some troop support. For Ugandan President
Museveni, this aid repays his debt to the Rwandan rebels' military
cadre, who were his comrades-in-arms during his fight for power.
Museveni probably also judges that only an RPF victory would
induce the estimated 200,000 Tutsi exiles in Uganda—where they
have drawn native Ugandans' resentment—to return to Rwanda. If
asked, Museveni might also aid any Burundian Tutsi group that
allied with the RPF. 3.5c

Zaire's President Mobutu views the crises in Rwanda and Burundi

as a chance to remind Western donors that his regime cannot be
ignored and to burnish his regional and international image by
mediating among the rival factions. At the same time, Mobutu
probably will provide limited support to Rwandan and Burundian
Hutus. The Zairian military intervened against the RPF in 1990
and sent Rwandan government forces some weapons last month.
Kinshasa has not meddled as much in Burundi, but we believe that
Mobutu would seriously consider a request by either an embattled
Hutu government or radical Hutu militias for military help.| 3.5c~

Prospects and Implications for the United States

Rwandan peace Conflict Resolution Mechanisms Disintegrating. The onset of civil

accords not war and massive ethnic slaughter in Rwanda last month sounded the
salvageable death knell for the Arusha accords of August 1993 that promised
power sharing, transition to electoral democracy, and military
demobilization. Renewed fighting and widespread butchery have

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EO 13526 3.5c

dissipated the limited trust developed between the government and

RPF during a year of negotiations. 3.5c

What if the The RPF controls about half the country, can isolate the capital at will,
rebels win... and is moving toward defeating government forces. Should the rebels
triumph, they will try to co-opt other groups into an RPF-controlled
regime. The rebels have already spoken of a "national conference" as
a forum for establishing the legitimacy of a new government. 3.5c

Could the RPF Govern? • ' L i ^ ^ s ^ ^ ^ ^ .

We believe the RPF, based on its negotiating history, realizes that a

minority Tutsi government would not be viable.- Should the rebels
defeat the interim government, their ability to establish political
control over Rwanda will depend on their ability to co-opt the
surviving moderate Hutu leaders. The RPF's record suggests it
probably would be able to do so if it wins quickly. The group has
installed Hutus in visible political positions—such as RPF Chairman
Kanyarengwe—and worked well with moderate Hutu representatives
during the peace negotiations last year. Another factor in the RPFs
favor is that rebel troops have refrainedfromretaliating on a massive
scale for anti-Tutsi atrocities; their strong discipline leads us to judge
that RPF troops will continue doing so. 3.5c

The ability of the rebels to establish a functioning government would

decline, however, if the war dragged on. Hutus amenable to
cooperation with the RPF would be hunted down by the interim
government's security forces and hardline militias, and continued: i
massacres of Tutsis could reduce the RPF's willingness to cooperate
across ethnic lines. 3.5c

...or could a stalemate On the other hand, if a military stalemate develops, continued fighting
result in a Cyprus-like probably will deepen mistrust even further and preclude a negotiated
partition? political settlement for some time. In this case, a more radical
solution—for example, a de facto, Cyprus-like partition between a
mainly Tutsi, RPF-held sector and a mainly Hutu, government-
controlled zone—may be the only way to end the bloodletting.
Partition would require massive shifts of population and would impose
enormous humanitarian and financial costs. The final extent of the
massacres probably would determine whether the RPF would even
consider this option. Such a step would have significant long-term
risks. 3.5c

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EO 13526 3.5c

In Burundi, the process that led to last year's democratic election and
the transfer of political power to the Hutu majority is under extreme
pressure. We believe the most immediate challenge is that of ensuring
the physical security of each ethnic group. The deaths of two Hutu
presidents within six months highlight the vulnerability of Burundi's
politicians, and extremists could try to massacre moderate leaders in a
power grab. On the other hand, Tutsis suspect that efforts to protect
the political leadership, such as the creation of a separate Presidential
Guard, are steps designed to impose Hutu military dominance over the
minority group and could leave them defenseless against Hutu mobs
and militias. 3.5c

Regional Refugee Situation

Tanzania, Uganda, Zaire, and Burundi fear that the influx of more than
300,000 Rwandan refugees will be economically costly, lead to
violence, and that the human waves will include military forces: ;

• At least 250,000 Rwandans have crossed into remote western i

Tanzania and have been moved to an area some 18 kilometers
from the border. International agencies are scrambling for funds,
workers, and relief goods to avert a health catastrophe from
cholera, measles, and other diseases.

• More than 50,000 Rwandan Tutsis havefledto Burundi, along

with about 200,000 Burundian Hutu refugees who had fled last
fall to escape violence and are now returning. Thefragileethnic
balance in Burundi could easily be upset if local people believe
the recent arrivals are monopolizing relief supplies. Some 60,000
Burundian Hutu refugees remain in Rwanda.

Zaire claims it has received some 8,500 Rwandanrefugees,and

; : another 5,500 Rwandans are in Uganda. Some 22,000 Burundians
have fled into Zairefromrefugeecamps in Rwanda. Although Ae
numbers are relatively small, the remoteness of the border camps
and poor transport systems are straining thereliefeffort. I 3.5c

Massive humanitarian Chronic Humanitarian Crisis. Continued political instability and

crisis will continue ethnic violence will exact a heavy human price. We expect the
number of Rwandans who havefledor have been displaced within the
country—we estimate 800,000—to rise into the millions. Similarly,
the 200,000 Burundians who recently returned from camps in Rwanda
may remain displaced within Burundi. These population

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displacements also have disrupted food production; Rwandan farmers

probably have drastically reduced planting during the current long
rainy season, and last year Burundi lost an estimated two-thirds of the
food crops planted during the short rains. 3.5c

Another blow to UN Donor Fatigue. Rwanda and Burundi's cycle of violence has spun out
peacekeeping efforts... of control despite considerable political and economic aidfromthe
outside. Some donors are reassessing assistance to Africa, especially
for peacekeeping operations. The limited mandate of the 2,500-man
UN contingent in Rwanda prevented it from intervening to halt or slow
the bloodbath:

• Belgium—which had 10 peacekeepers murdered—is reevaluating

its participation in any future UN military operations.

• Because of their experiences in other operations, Nigeria and other

African countries say they will participate in a proposed
multilateral force to protect aid deliveries only if they have prior
commitments of logistical and transport support from the United
States and other Western powers. 3.5c

...and to economic The experience of Rwanda and Burundi may also cause donors to
assistance to Africa reconsider economic assistance. Donors disbursed $1.3 billion to
Rwanda and $1.0 billion to Burundi—representing about 20 percent of
their GDPs—between 1986 and 1990, when the World Bank said they
were generally pursuing therighteconomic course. But since then,
ethnic violence has swept away the gains achieved by these resource
transfers. I 3.5c

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Rwanda and Burundi: Societies in Crisis

Annex: Military Forces in Rwanda and Burundi

Rwanda
Rwandan Armed Forces (Government):
Combat Effective manpower nationwide: 10,000
Combat Effective manpower in Kigali: 2,500
Major weapons systems:
Armored cars: 62
Mortars (60 mm, 80 mm, 120 mm) 250
122 mm howitzers 6
Air defense machine guns 35
SA-7 air defense missiles unk
75 mm recoilless rifles 50
Helicopters 6

Hutu Militias (Pro-Government):

Combat Effective manpower nationwide: well over 10,000
Weapons: AK-47 assault rifles, hand grenades

Rwandan Patriotic Army (Rebels):

Combat Effective manpower nationwide: 13,000
Combat Effective manpower in Kigali: 4,500
Major weapons systems (quantities unknown):
107 mm towed multiple rocket launchers
60 mm, 80 mm, 120 mm mortars
Towed air defense guns
SA-7 man-portable missiles

United Nations Mission in Rwanda (UNAMIR):

50 military observers in Kigali; authorized strength of 270.
3.5c

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Burundi
Burundian Armed Forces
Estimated manpower nationwide: 13,500
(includes Army, Gendarmerie, Security Service)
Major weapons systems:
Armored cars: 85
122-mm howitzers and rocket-launchers 22
3-inch, 82-mm, 120-mm mortars 109
75-mm recoilless rifles 13
40-mm antitank grenade launchers 69
Air defense artillery 188
Helicopters (operational) 10
C-47 Transport (operational) 2
Trainers (operational) 2
Light fixed-wing (operational) 2

Hutu Party Militias

Unknown number of militiamen armed with various light infantry
weapons, possibly including rocket-propelled grenade launchers.

OAU Inter-African Observer Mission in Burundi (MIOB)

31 military observers; authorized strength of 47.
3.5c

11 SECRET
Concentrations of Displaced Rwandans Attempting to Flee Country, Late April 1994

Zaire

Zaire

731911 (H01317) 4-94

L_E.O_13.52-6_3.,.5_c.
Challenges to Proposed UN Forces

••-.1 Concentration of displaced persons

RPF rebel-controlled area
aOKilomclm

Lake
Tanganyika/,.
732102 (R01317) 5-W
EO 13526 3.5c

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

Military Situation, Early May 1994

731980 (R01317) 5-94

EO 13526 3.5c
Rwanda: Concentrations Of Displaced Persons And Refugees, 11 May 1994

CONCENTRATIONS OF DISPLACED 30 MILES

PERSONS UGANDA
[ -/ I RPF REBEL-DOMINATED AREA

^ REFUGEE FLOW

M • / ' L- y
X REFUGEE CAMP

ZAIRE

800,000 RWANDANS
DISPLACED ACROSS COUNTRY

65,000 STRANDED iWs^ :•-•• -

BURUNDIAN REFUGEES

TANZANIA

BURUNDI

ZAIRE

PREPARED 11 MAY 94
Confidential EO 13526 3.5c
 jUljudujJlQ

TO
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CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

 CECRET
EO 13526 3.5c

24 May 1994
MEMORANDUM
SUBJECT: Risks t o an Expanded UN Force i n Rwanda
1. The expansion o f UNAMIR--the UN peacekeeping f o r c e
i n Rwanda--to a s t r e n g t h o f 5,500 men i s l i k e l y t o occur
before the c i v i l war between Rwanda's i n t e r i m government
and t h e rebels of the Rwandan P a t r i o t i c Front (RPF) abates
or a f i r m c e a s e - f i r e i s i n place. The two sides have
r a d i c a l l y d i v e r g e n t expectations of t h e mission o f a
m u l t i l a t e r a l f o r c e , and e i t h e r side could q u i c k l y come t o
b e l i e v e t h a t UN troops were n o t n e u t r a l and were f a i r game
f o r a t t a c k . I n any case, supply l i n e s i n mountainous and
landlocked Rwanda w i l l be h i g h l y v u l n e r a b l e t o a t t a c k by
l o c a l forces and t o the p o l i t i c a l s e n s i t i v i t i e s and
inadequate i n f r a s t r u c t u r e of neighboring s t a t e s . 1 3.5c
D i f f e r e n c e s Over Expanded UNAMIR Mandate

2. EO 13526 1.4c say n e i t h e r side has given

u n c o n d i t i o n a l consent t o t h e c o n d i t i o n s t h a t t h e S e c u r i t y
Council has s e t f o r deploying an expanded contingent t o
Rwanda. Rwanda's Ambassador t o the UN--a member of t h e
S e c u r i t y Council--voted i n f a v o r of expanding UNAMIR, a f t e r
pushing f o r a l a r g e r f o r c e t h a t would enforce a c e a s e - f i r e
and back up a p o l i t i c a l settlement. Beleaguered by the
RPF's capture o f K i g a l i ' s a i r p o r t t h i s week, t h e Hutu-
c o n t r o l l e d i n t e r i m government probably hopes a UN f o r c e
w i l l freeze c u r r e n t b a t t l e l i n e s , block f u r t h e r r e b e l
advances, and r e i n f o r c e i t s domestic and i n t e r n a t i o n a l
l e g i t i m a c y . Leaders o f t h e Tutsi-dominated RPF, however,
say they w i l l n o t be bound by a r e s o l u t i o n t h a t t h e
government voted f o r , and they have demanded " b i l a t e r a l
agreements" w i t h c o u n t r i e s p r o v i d i n g UNAMIR c o n t i n g e n t s .
The RPF wants t h e UN f o r c e t o have no more than 2,500
s o l d i e r s and a mission l i m i t e d t o p r o t e c t i n g c i v i l i a n s - -
i n c l u d i n g disarmament of suspected mass murderers --and
humanitarian r e l i e f . RPF leaders have r e j e c t e d n e g o t i a t i o n
of a c e a s e - f i r e w i t h regime leaders, c l a i m i n g t h i s would
give p o l i t i c a l l e g i t i m a c y t o the regime w i t h o u t ending the
s l a u g h t e r o f t h e r e b e l s ' e t h n i c T u t s i kinsmen i n areas
s t i l l under government c o n t r o l . | 3.5c

EO 13526 3.5c EO 13526 3.5c

EO 13526 3.5c i
SECRET DECLASSIFIED IN PART
CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY PER E. O. 13526
 SECRET
EO 13526 3.5c

Risks From the Factions

3. Any enhanced UNAMIR f o r c e w i l l face considerable

r i s k s from the Rwandan combatants, whether the peacekeepers
are based i n K i g a l i or i n p r o t e c t e d zones along the
borders. Each side suspects the UN of s u p p o r t i n g the
other. 3.5c
4. From the government... S e c u r i t y f o r c e s and
progovernment m i l i t i a s - - r e s p o n s i b l e f o r UNAMIR's 11 combat
deaths since l a s t month, as w e l l as f o r most of the e t h n i c
s l a u g h t e r - - p r o b a b l y would r e s i s t an a c t i v e UN e f f o r t t o
prevent f u r t h e r k i l l i n g s or t o i n v e s t i g a t e past murders.
The Army r e t a i n s a core of some 10,000 c o m b a t - e f f e c t i v e
troops, who are equipped w i t h armored v e h i c l e s , a i r defense
m i s s i l e s and machineguns, RPGs, and o t h e r heavy weapons.
The P r e s i d e n t i a l Guard B a t t a l i o n probably i s the g r e a t e s t
r i s k t o UN f o r c e s . E a r l y l a s t month PGB troops murdered
o p p o s i t i o n leaders-- i n c l u d i n g the Prime M i n i s t e r - - a n d
B e l g i a n peacekeepers t r y i n g t o p r o t e c t them, and
eyewitnesses have t o l d |~EO 13526 1 Ac |that they organized the
onset of e t h n i c butchery m southern Rwanda.
3.5c
5. There are a l s o a t l e a s t 10,000 members of r a d i c a l
Hutu p a r t y m i l i t i a s , who e a r l i e r t h i s year were t r a i n e d and
given r i f l e s by the s e c u r i t y f o r c e s . These i r r e g u l a r s - -
r e s p o n s i b l e f o r s l a u g h t e r i n g c i v i l i a n s and harassing
f o r e i g n a i d workers, according t o press) EO 13526 1.4c
r e p o r t s - - c o u l d evolve i n t o a g u e r r i l l a f o r c e capable off
t a k i n g on UN t r o o p s . The regime says i t i s r e c r u i t i n g
50,000 new t r o o p s , who probably w i l l r e c e i v e the same
r a d i c a l i n d o c t r i n a t i o n , cursory t r a i n i n g , and l i g h t weapons
as the m i l i t i a s . 3.5c
6. The absence of command-and-control c a l l s i n t o
serious q u e s t i o n the government's a b i l i t y t o implement any
agreement i t s commanders or p o l i t i c a l leaders might make
w i t h UN f o r c e s . According t o press] EO 13526 1.4c [reports,
Rwandan diplomats o u t s i d e the country and Army commanders
reached by telephone i n K i g a l i say they have no way t o
contact the i n t e r i m government, and they deny having any
c o n t r o l over the m i l i t i a s . Although regime leaders may be
exaggerating communications problems t o d e f l e c t blame f o r
e t h n i c massacres, t h e i r a b i l i t y and w i l l i n g n e s s t o prevent
i s o l a t e d , renegade f o r c e s from a t t a c k i n g UN peacekeepers
w i l l remain problematic f o r the foreseeable f u t u r e . | 3.5c

EO 13526 3.5c
CECRET

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

 CECRET
EO 13526 3.5c

7. ...From the r e b e l s . RPF forces t o date have been

more cooperative than government troops w i t h the UN
c o n t i n g e n t and w i t h a i d groups. We estimate t h a t the
r e b e l s have some 13,000 combat-effective t r o o p s , who are
f a r b e t t e r l e d and d i s c i p l i n e d than t h e i r government
c o u n t e r p a r t s . Although mainly a l i g h t i n f a n t r y f o r c e , t h e
RPF has SA-7 a i r defense m i s s i l e s , 107 mm towed rocket
launchers, and 120 mm mortars. 3.5c
8. Although we b e l i e v e the r e b e l s are l e s s l i k e l y t o
-
seek an open c o n f r o n t a t i o n w i t h UN f o r c e s ! EO 13526 1.4c
says the RPF would engage any UN f o r c e t h a t , i n i t s
view, was t a k i n g an a c t i v e r o l e i n the c i v i l war. I n
p a r t i c u l a r , a p e r c e p t i o n t h a t UN troops were p r o t e c t i n g
those r e s p o n s i b l e f o r mass k i l l i n g s o r were t h r e a t e n i n g the
r e b e l s ' c o n t r o l o f t h e i r t e r r i t o r y could provoke an RPF
a t t a c k . Moreover, the extended heavy f i g h t i n g and evidence
of the s l a u g h t e r o f RPF f i g h t e r s ' e t h n i c kinsmen appear t o
be f r a y i n g the r e b e l troops' d i s c i p l i n e and i n c r e a s i n g the
r i s k o f i n c i d e n t s w i t h UN peacekeepers.

-- The RPF has admitted t h a t i t s troops f i r e d on a convoy

t r a n s p o r t i n g a French a i d o f f i c i a l from Gitarama t o
K i g a l i , blaming the i n c i d e n t on confusion i n a combat
zone.

EO 13526 1.4c |says r e b e l s

began k i l l i n g c i v i l i a n s when they r e a l i z e d how many of
t h e i r supporters had been k i l l e d , and UN o f f i c i a l s
accuse RPF troops of murdering c i v i l i a n s along the
Tanzanian border. 3.5c
L o g i s t i c Problems i n Rwanda
9. The supply l i n e s of an enhanced UN contingent
based w i t h i n Rwanda would be v u l n e r a b l e t o i n t e r r u p t i o n .
K i g a l i ' s a i r p o r t - - t h e only one i n the country capable o f
r e c e i v i n g l a r g e t r a n s p o r t a i r c r a f t - - h a s been on the f r o n t
l i n e between government and r e b e l f o r c e s , and UN resupply
f l i g h t s have r e g u l a r l y been prevented from l a n d i n g t h e r e .
Both sides have weapons capable of s h u t t i n g down any
a i r f i e l d i n the country. 3.5c
10. Surface t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a l s o presents a number o f
hazards and r i s k s . Only about 1 percent of Rwanda's 4,885-
km road network i s paved, and the f i g h t i n g almost c e r t a i n l y
has prevented r e p a i r of c u l v e r t s and shoulders eroder" i n

EO 13526 3.5c
CECRET
 SECRET
EO 13526 3.5c

the c u r r e n t season of heavy r a i n s . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e

country's h i l l y t e r r a i n o f f e r s numerous o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o
ambush supply convoys o r p a t r o l s .
R e t r e a t i n g government forces are blowing up highway
b r i d g e s , i n c l u d i n g one about 10 kms west of K i g a l i on
the main road t o Burundi, according t o press r e p o r t s .
-- There are more than 50,000 uncleared mines i n the
north. 3.5c
Problems Along the Borders
11. UNAMIR w i l l a l s o face p o t e n t i a l l y t h r e a t e n i n g
l o g i s t i c and p o l i t i c a l problems i f i t deploys along
Rwanda's borders t o p r o t e c t refugees and d i s p l a c e d persons
or t o guard the supply l i n e s of a contingent i n Rwanda. A
f o r c e based i n Burundi t o p r o t e c t v u l n e r a b l e c i v i l i a n
p o p u l a t i o n s i n southern Rwanda r i s k s u p s e t t i n g the already
unstable balance between the Hutu-led government and the
Tutsi-dominated m i l i t a r y . | EO 13526 1.4c | the
m i l i t a r y - - e l e m e n t s of which have launched three a b o r t i v e
coup attempts since June 1993--are chary o f any f o r e i g n
m i l i t a r y presence, probably i n p a r t because the s e c u r i t y
forces f e a r t h i s would encourage unrest among the Hutu
m a j o r i t y . Hutu m i l i t a n t s , f o r t h e i r p a r t , could see a UN
f o r c e as a s h i e l d from r e p r i s a l s i f they rose up against
the Army.

-- Unrest has f l a r e d several times i n Bujumbura--which

has Burundi's only a i r f i e l d capable of handling l a r g e
t r a n s p o r t a i r c r a f t - - a s s e c u r i t y forces have moved t o
disarm Hutu c i v i l i a n s and a n t i - T u t s i m i l i t i a s .

EO 13526 1.4c (in n o r t h e r n Burundi c o m p e t i t i o n

f o r r e l i e f s u p p l i e s i s sparking unrest between some
60,000 mostly T u t s i Rwandan refugees and an estimated
600,000 Burundian Hutus there who were d i s p l a c e d by
e t h n i c unrest l a t e l a s t year.
I n the Rwandan p r e f e c t u r e s along the Burundi border,
hundreds o f thousands of c i v i l i a n s remain a t r i s k o f
a t t a c k from government forces and p a r t y m i l i t i a s .
Food a i d shipments r e p o r t e d l y are s t r a i n i n g
Bujumbura's p o r t on Lake Tanganyika and, t o a l e s s e r
e x t e n t , i t s a i r p o r t , and s o l d i e r s have harassed t r u c k s
c a r r y i n g r e l i e f supplies t o Rwanda. \ 3.5c

EO 13526 3.5c
CECRET
 CECRET
EO 13526 3.5c

12. Any a c t i v i t i e s by a UN f o r c e i n Uganda-- through

which Rwanda's most d i r e c t l i n k t o a seaport passes--would
r e q u i r e the f u l l cooperation o f President Museveni, who has
longstanding t i e s t o the RPF. Although Museveni probably
would make a pretense o f cooperating w i t h UNAMIR t o p r o t e c t
h i s i n t e r n a t i o n a l image, he i s l i k e l y t o continue c o v e r t l y
g i v i n g the Rwandan r e b e l s s u p p l i e s and sanctuary.
EO 13526 1.4c most
s e n i o r o f f i c e r s i n the Ugandan Army--undoubtedly r e f l e c t i n g
Museveni's views--oppose expanding UNAMIR's r o l e and
b e l i e v e the RPF should be allowed t o gain a m i l i t a r y
victory.
About 10,000 Rwandans have f l e d t o Uganda. N e i t h e r
they nor p o p u l a t i o n s on the Rwandan side of the border
face any immediate s e c u r i t y t h r e a t .
3.5c
13. Z a i r i a n i n t e r e s t s i n the c o n f l i c t a l s o are l i k e l y
t o impede e f f o r t s t o support a UN f o r c e from along Rwanda's
western border. | EO 13526 1.4c

Although two Z a i r i a n border towns have a i r f i e l d s

capable o f r e c e i v i n g C-130-size a i r c r a f t , eastern
Zaire's road network i s rudimentary, and the
mountainous r e g i o n i s s u b j e c t t o chronic shortages o f
f u e l and o t h e r s u p p l i e s .
We judge t h e r e i s l i t t l e s e c u r i t y r i s k t o the
estimated 10,000 Rwandans and 91,000 Burundian Hutu
refugees from Rwanda who have f l e d t o eastern Z a i r e
since e a r l y A p r i l . Rwandan government troops along
the f r o n t i e r , however, have detained thousands o f
mostly T u t s i c i v i l i a n s , who are s u b j e c t t o a r b i t r a r y
beatings and execution. [ 3.5c
14. Tanzania's government i s l i k e l y t o remain
s u p p o r t i v e of a UN e f f o r t anclT EO 13526 1.4c
b e l i e v e s i t i s the only neighbor i n t e r e s t e d i n
r
i m p a r t i a l mediation o f the Rwandan c r i s i s . Dar Es Salaam
might even send t r o o p s . The a r r i v a l o f an estimated
340,000 Rwandan refugees i n remote northwestern Tanzania,
however, has severely s t r a i n e d the country's
infrastructure. | EO 13526 1.4c Ithe heavy
t r a f f i c o f humanitarian r e l i e f f l i g h t s has stressed the

EO 13526 3.5c
CECRET
 SECRET
EO 13526 3.5c

runways a t Mwanza's a i r f i e l d and exhausted f u e l stocks

t h e r e . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e region's road network i s
dilapidated.
-- We assess the s e c u r i t y t h r e a t t o t h e Rwandan refugees
i n northwestern Tanzania t o be f a i r l y low. Reports of
RPF k i l l i n g s i n rebel-occupied southeastern Rwanda,
however, i n d i c a t e the r i s k s t o c i v i l i a n s a r e r i s i n g
there. 3.5c
I m p l i c a t i o n s f o r the United States
15. Many p o t e n t i a l c o n t r i b u t o r s t o UNAMIR are l i k e l y
t o remain r e l u c t a n t t o provide troops f o r t h e f o r c e u n t i l
they are convinced Washington w i l l t a k i n g a l e a d i n g r o l e .
Ghana, f o r example, says an augmentation of the 200 troops
which i t has a l r e a d y deployed t o K i g a l i w i l l depend on t h e
w i l l i n g n e s s o f t h e United States and other Western s t a t e s
t o provide m i l i t a r y s u p p l i e s and p o l i t i c a l l e a d e r s h i p . A
survey of press| EO 13526 1.4c [reporting i n d i c a t e s t h a t
many o t h e r A f r i c a n and non r e g i o n a l s t a t e s share t h i s view.
Although n e i t h e r side i s anti-American, US f o r c e s p r o v i d i n g
l o g i s t i c support would face the same r i s k s as o t h e r UNAMIR
c o n t i n g e n t s . I 3.5c I

EO 13526 3.5c
GECRET

CLINTON LIBRAitY PHOTOCOPY

Regional Dimensions Of The Rwandan Crisis, May 1994

LAKE
EDWARD

CONCENTRATIONS OF DISPLACED
AND AT RISK RWANDANS
CONCENTRATIONS OF RWANDAN
REFUGEES AND DISPLACED

RPF-REBEL DOMINATED AREA

C-5A GALAXY CAPABLE

C-130 CAPABLE

ACCESSIBLE ROADS

Unclassified

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F:\Email\Data_Source\Al\Record\CD001\jun94\043928.html Page 1 o f 2

NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

15-Jun-1994 20:21 EDT

-CQUriDCNTIAIT

MEMORANDUM FOR:
Susan E. Rice ( RICE )
MacArthur DeShazer ( DESHAZER )

FROM: Donald K. S t e i n b e r g
(STEINBERG)

SUBJECT: E-Mail t o Tony on Rwanda

Tony:

Thank you f o r your r a i s i n g t h e Rwandan i s sue a t t h e CPL l u n c h ,

We worked o u t today a schedule f o r t h e itnr o d u c t i o n o f APCs i n t o
Rwanda t h a t i n v o l v e s shipment o f t h e f i r s t APCs t h i s Sunday i n t o
Kampala, w i t h t h e shipment o f t h e e n t i r e 50 c o n t i n g e n t t o be
completed by next F r i d a y . This t i m e t a b l e i n v o l v e s shipment by
two C-S's making a t o t a l o f nine runs i n t o Rwanda (each can c a r r y
6 APCs per load) . I t would be p o s s i b l e t o f i n i s h t h e deployment
a few days q u i c k e r i f t h e P r e s i d e n t d e c l a red t h i s our t o p
m i l i t a r y p r i o r i t y , b u t s i n c e t h e U.N. hass a i d they cannot use
them b e f o r e next F r i d a y i n any case, and g i v e n t h e c u r r e n t
s i t u a t i o n s i n N o r t h Korea, H a i t i , Bosnia, etc., we t h i n k i t makes
sense t o s t i c k t o t h i s schedule.

I n a d d i t i o n , t e n more APCs from Somalia are b e i n g shipped today

or tomorrow t o Rwanda, making a t o t a l o f 15 which have been
t r a n s f e r r e d from t h e r e . The UN i s proceeding apace on t h e issues
of t r a i n i n g f o r t h e Ghanaians on t h e APCs (which w i l l l i k e l y
occur i n Somalia). We are moving r a p i d l y on p r o v i d i n g a d d i t i o n a l
equipment f o r t h i s u n i t .

I n c i d e n t a l l y , our f i g u r e f o r h u m a n i t a r i a n a s s i s t a n c e approved f o r
Rwanda/Burundi t h i s f i s c a l year has now reached more than $115
m i l l i o n , i n c l u d i n g $94 m i l l i o n s i n c e t h e b e g i n n i n g o f t h e c u r r e n t
c r i s i s i n early A p r i l .

Tomorrow, we've g o t a background s e s s i o n w i t h j o u r n a l i s t s and a

c l o s e d - p r e s s r o u n d t a b l e on t h e H i l l where we w i l l walk people
t h r o u g h a l l o f our h u m a n i t a r i a n , peacekeeping and o t h e r a c t i o n s
on Rwanda.

Don/Susan/Mac

CC: Records RECORDS )

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CLINTON LIBRARY PW$£l

23 June 1994

Zaire's Goma Airfields Base for Frencli

Operations i n Rwanda

The French m i l i t a r y has selected Goma a i r f i e l d as the

operational and l o g i s t i c hub f o r i t s i n t e r v e n t i o n i n Rwanda
EO 13526 1.4c
FO 13526 1 4c rits~9T84"3 - foot - long runway~is~xn gen-erany
good condition, and the f a c i l i t y i s frequently used by IL-76 and
B-707 air-craftt the French plan to operate C-160'B and C-130's to
EO 13526 1.4c
EO 13526 1.4c

Nonetheless, f l i g h t operations i n Goma w i l l face a number of

difficulties:
-- Rwandan Government forces and t h e i r Z a i r i a n a l l i e s have
used the f a c i l i t y f o r weapons shipments and might t r y t o
i n t e r f e r e w i t h a c t i v i t y impeding t h i s a c t i v i t y .
Moreover, these arms d e l i v e r i e s may lead the Rwandan
P a t r i o t i c Front rebels t o consider Goma a l e g i t i m a t e
target.

EO 13526 1.4c

Provision of other support services w i l l be problematic,

r e f l e c t i n g the region's scant land t r a n s p o r t a t i o n l i n k s
t o the rest of Zaire. Most goods and services are i n
short supply, and vendors t y p i c a l l y demand payment i n
hard currency cash--preferably 1990 series US d o l l a r
banknotes.
M i l i t a r y f l i g h t s w i l l compete f o r landing s l o t s w i t h the
s i x or so humanitarian a i d f l i g h t s that have been
a r r i v i n g each day i n Goma since the Rwanda c r i s i s erupted
in early A p r i l . 3.5c

EO 13526 3.5c
DECLASSIFIED IN PART
PER E.O. 13526 3.5c
CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY
Regional Airfields Supporting French Deployment To Rwanda

1 PREPARED 23 JUNE 94
Confidential EQ 13526 3.5c

DECLASSIFIED
PER E.O. 13526
 Transport Aircraft

Country Model Payload (in Range (In Ramp for Aer

tons) thousand Loading/ Rel
miles) Unloading

USA C-5 130.5 6.5 Yes Yes

C-130 19.5 4.9 Yes Yes

C-141 45.4 2.9 Yes Yes

France DC-8 22.8 7.2 No No

A-310-300 37.5 5.1 No No

C-160* • 7.8 3.1 Yes Yes

:OPY

B-707 45.7 4.3 No No

Russia/Ukraine AN-124 165.3 2.8 Yes No

o
Q_ internal dimensions as well as weight limitations preclude moving all but France's smallest helicopters and lightest armored vehicles
by C-160 aircraft.

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0 ONFIDENTfAL
July 27, 1994
Memorandum to: The President

From: Anthony Lake

Subject: Rwandan Relief Operations - An Update

The A i r l i f t : USAF aircraft flew into Goma in Zaire, Kigali in Rwanda,

Entebbe in Uganda, Harare in Zimbabwe, and Nairobi in Kenya today as part of a
multipronged relief effort. The first US water purification machines began
pumping potable water into trucks and storage bladders in Goma. One C-5 flew
non-stop from near San Francisco, refuelled in the air three times, and landed at
Goma 22 hours later carrying water purification devices.

The airlift is hampered by the small size of the airports at Goma and
especially at Bukavu. Strenuous utilization has cracked the apron at Goma,
thereby further limiting flights. As a result, General Joulwan is looking at
increasing flights into other locations and estabhshing road convoys into the
effected area. Another limiting factor may be the availability of aviation fuel in the
few airports that we are using. The solution to that may be to aerial refuel USAF
cargo aircraft with tankers stationed nearby.

On the ground: Although one estimate suggests that 50,000 refugees have
returned into Rwanda, most are settling in to the makeshift camps. Cholera
continues to claim high fatalities, but it is apparently not of the communicable
strain. Thus, the water purification plan and the rehydration program should be
gain the upper hand over the disease in the days ahead. For now, however, dealing
with the dead is a high priority. Burial is difficult in the volcanic soil. A US Armry
Engineer unit with heavy equipment to assist in this task will begin arriving
tomorrow. A US Army Green Beret battalion will begin arriving soon to provide
Special Forces who have paramedic and camp organizaing skills.

Our Plans: Although the press began running the story that we were going
to put 2000 US troops into Rwanda, we were able to correct that impression with
backgrounding and a Bill Perry press conference. The truth is that the Pentagon is
developing options for refugee repatriation programs and an airhead in Rwanda, for
review by the Principals Committee late in the week. The UN and the charitable
groups may be able to do much of what is needed inside Rwanda. A US military
survey team is in Kigali, Rwanda now. Bill Perry and Gen. Joulwan will further
assess these requirements on the ground over the weekend.

CONFIDENTIAL
DECLASSIFIED
PER E.0.13526
CLINTON LIBRARY "OCOPY
-eONFflDENTIAL

Others' Donations: The Israeli Army is opening a field hospital, flown in

on eight of their C-130s. We Eire flying in German water purification trucks. The
United Kingdom today offered a Royal Engineer battalion to the UN peacekeeping
force in Rwanda, following offers by Canada and Australia to send small technical
units to support that group. Overall, however, the response to the UN's appeals
has been limited. Of the eight "service packages" that the UN asked nations
assume, we have assumed four and no other nation has come forward to accept the
others (such as sanitation, road repair).

Funding: OMB is pulling together a small emergency supplemental for

Defense, State, and AID to cover some of their Rwanda related costs. There is
substantial sympathy among most concerned Members, although it may require
some special work with one or two.

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

 CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

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 SECRET EO 13526 3.5c

Tanzaniat Dealing With Rwandan Refugees

I n our judgement, t h e Tanzanian government l a c k s t h e resources,
manpower and p o l i t i c a l w i l l t o meet t h e s e c u r i t y t h r e a t s from
refugee camps i n the Ngara and Karagwe areas where up t o 440,000
Rwandan refugees have f l e d since l a t e A p r i l . I n p a r t i c u l a r , Dar
Es Salaam i s probably l e e r y of provoking an armed c o n f l i c t w i t h
former Rwandan Army (FAR) troopsl EO 13526 l!4c
EO 13526 1.4c jby u s i n g t h e Tanzanian
Peoples Defense Force (TPDF) t o prevent FAR troops from r a i d i n g
Rwanda. The Tanzanians are a l s o r e l u c t a n t t o t a c k l e t h e task of
a r r e s t i n g Hutu m i l i t i a members w i t h o u t c l e a r evidence o f
wrongdoing on Tanzanian s o i l . [ 3.5c
So f a r , s e c u r i t y w i t h i n the camps--which DAR t r e a t s as a p o l i c e
r a t h e r than m i l i t a r y issue--has not been a s i g n i f i c a n t problem.
- - V i o l e n t i n c i d e n t s i n the camps are not a t the l e v e l o r
frequency o f those r e p o r t e d i n the Z a i r e camps, according t o
a v a r i e t y of reports.

EO 13526 1.4c _Benaco camp--which holds 238,000

refugees- - has only abouE^one murder a n i g h t and numerous
r e p o r t s of t h e f t . 3.5c
flefugrees Continue to Take Flight
Reports o f Rwandan P a t r i o t i c Front (RPF) revenge k i l l i n g s i n
southeastern Rwanda have l e d some 100,000 Hutus t o f l e e t o
Tanzania since mid-July, however, d i s c o u r a g i n g a l l b u t a few
Hutus from r e p a t r i a t i n g t o Rwanda.

EO 13526 1.4c new a r r i v a l s say t h e RPF i s

b u r n i n g Hutu homes and k i l l i n g v i l l a g e r s . Such r e p r i s a l s
are d r i v i n g some 10-12,000 Rwandans per week t o t h e Ngara
camps and another 500 per week t o the Karagwe r e g i o n .

EO 13526 1.4c Hutu e x t r e m i s t s r e t a i n c o n t r o l

over the refugee p o p u l a t i o n , using food d i s t r i b u t i o n and
i n t i m i d a t i o n t a c t i c s t o undermine r e p a t r i a t i o n e f f o r t s . 3.5c

Caflips Remain a Threat

Hutu m i l i t a n t s r e t a i n the c a p a b i l i t y and d e t e r m i n a t i o n t o mount
r a i d s i n t o Rwanda t h a t could t r i g g e r e s c a l a t i n g c o n f l i c t w i t h the
RPF.

EO 13526 1.4c Hutu refugees s t i l l r e t a i n

weapons--probably small arms and machetes--and have
continued t h e i r campaign of t e r r o r a g a i n s t T u t s i refugees.

EO 13526 3.5c DECLASSIFIED IN PART

PER E. 0. 13526
 GECRET EO 13526 3.5c

Moreover, EO 13526 1.4c some r e c r u i t i n g by FAR s o l d i e r s

i s t a k i n g place i n the Benaco camp.
-I EO 13526 1.4c the FAR has
launched r a i d s from the Karagwe r e g i o n i n t o Rwanda over the
past few weeks, which r i s k s provoking RPF troops t o a t t a c k
FAR f o r c e s i n Tanzania. | 3.5c "

Dar Es Salaam T r y i n g t o B o l s t e r S e c u r i t y
The Tanzanian Government i s aware of t h e u n r e s t Hutu m i l i t i a s and
FAR troops can b r i n g t o the camps--in June, t h e d e t e n t i o n of Hutu
h a r d l i n e r and former commune leader Gatete provoked Rwandan
refugees t o r i o t and f o r c e d a i d workers t o withdraw t e m p o r a r i l y
from t h e Benaco camp i n Ngara--and i s t r y i n g t o o b t a i n
i n f o r m a t i o n and b o l s t e r s e c u r i t y . Dar Es Salaam probably w i l l
a l s o t r y t o convince t h e RPF t h a t i t i s not p r o v i d i n g the Hutus
w i t h a base o f o p e r a t i o n s f o r i n c u r s i o n s i n t o Rwanda.

EO 13526 1.4c

--Tanzanian p o l i c e f i e l d f o r c e s have been deployed t o help the

TPDF c o n t r o l border crossings i n the Karagwe area, where FAR
forces have conducted raids EO 13526 1.4c
EO 13526 1.4c DAR also promised
m i l i t i a members and t o i d e n t i f y those suspected o f war
crimes, but t h e Tanzanians susequently i n d i c a t e d they could
not deploy s i g n i f i c a n t numbers of p o l i c e w i t h o u t o u t s i d e
f i n a n c i a l help. I 3.5c I
But Lacfcs Commitment and A b i l i t y
Despite these measures, the Karagwe and Ngara areas remain
unsafe, w i t h r i s i n g v i o l e n c e and murders o f suspected T u t s i
sympathizers causing some r e l i e f workers and l o c a l r e s i d e n t s t o
fear f o r t h e i r safety.
--To address s e c u r i t y concerns, t h i s month the UNHCR t r i e d t o
move camps 100-200 k i l o m e t e r s away from t h e border; however
the idea was r e j e c t e d by the Tanzanian government a f t e r the
UN spent. $450, 000 p r e p a r i n g a new s i t e [ _ EO 13526 1.4c

EO 13526 1.4c o n l y 56 p o l i c e
o f f i c e r s have been deployed t o t h e camps, d e s p i t e Dar Es
Salaam's mid-June agreement w i t h the UNHCR t o send an
a d d i t i o n a l 300 o f f i c e r s . I 3^ '

FiECRET EO 13526 3.5c

 SECRET EO 13526 3.5c

Moreover, w h i l e Dar Es Salaam's p l a n t o disarm t h e m i l i t i a s and

prevent FAR r a i d s i s ambitious, i t s a b i l i t y and w i l l i n g n e s s t o do
so i s open to doubt. I n our view, exea_i£_addi.ti.onal_B.e.c.ur.i.ty:
f o r c e s are sent t o t h e border area' EO 13526 1.4c
EO 13526 1.4c
they w i l l be outmanned and outgunned by armed Hutu troops and
militiamen.
--To deploy a s u b s t a n t i a l TPDF f o r c e t o monitor t h e Rwandan
border and prevent RPF-FAR clashes, DAR would a t a minimum
probably r e q u i r e l o g i s t i c and m a t e r i e l a s s i s t a n c e . | 3.5c

SECRET EO 13526 3.5c

 CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

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 PHOTOCOPY
WJC HANJWRITWQ THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
PHOT -
/VJCHAKu ING
July 29, 1994

MR. PK&IDENT:

The attached memo contains a daily report on the

situation in Rwanda.

Water production and distribution is up to 100,000

gallons per day. Additional production units should
arrive on Thursday, but we remain short of the objective
of 3.4 million gallons per day. Additional water supplies
will begin arriving by ship in Mombassa, Kenya on
Saturday and will be trucked or helcoptered to Goma.

Aircraft sorties have increased, but remain limited by

runway capacity at Goma.

925 US Special Forces troops will arrive over the

weekend, and a US engineering battalion will arrive on
Friday to assist with burials.

Yesterday's briefing with non-governmental organizations

went well, and Tony plans to repeat the briefing today in
the press room.

R. Paul Richard

PER EXL 13526

CLINTON LIBRARY P w
COPY
i . CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY
CONrD
i ENTIAL CONriDENTIAL m ^ ^ ^
THE WHITE H O U S E
WASHINGTON

fi
July 29, 1994 Q4 JUL 29 l0 • 53
INFORMATION Oiouu.

MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT

FROM: ANTHONY L/

SUBJECT: Rwanda: Daily Report

Situation in Goma

- Water production and distribution was up again today to 100,000 gallons per day.
Trucks for distribution of water remain in short supply, but more vehicles are due to arrive in the
region on the weekend. Additional water production units should arrive Thursday, but we are still
far from the overall objective of 3.4 million gallons per day.

- Aircraft sorties are up, but the runway capacity at Goma continues to be a limiting
factor. We are awaiting the recommendation of the Kigali survey team before making a final
decision on opening that airport to the relief effort. Aviation fuel in theater may also become a
problem. Rapid turn-around of aircraft at forward bases requires forward deployed fuel and
therefore additional aircraft and fuel bladders. EUCOM is working on this problem.

- Additional Water Supplies will also start arriving by ship on Saturday in Mombassa,
Kenya. These supplies include water purification equipment, water pipes, tanker trucks and
general purpose trucks. This equipment will then either be trucked or, possibly, helicopter-lifted
to Goma and elsewhere to avoid taking up valuable runway space.

U.S. Deployment

- 925 U.S. Special Forces Troops will begin arriving in Goma over the weekend to
provide medical, communications and other support as well as to help control refugee flows.

- A full U.S. Engineering Battalion should begin arriving on Friday with bulldozers and
other heavy equipment to assist with burials.

Efforts to Galvanize Support for UNHCR's 8 Requirements

Following your letter last weekend, we have continued to press in foreign capitals for
contributions to fulfill UNHCR's other 4 requirements - those that the U.S. is not addressing.
UNHCR is holding a pledging and coordination meeting in Geneva on Friday.
DECLASSIFIED
PER E.0.13526

Chief of Staff
CONriDCN'ffAL

Political Efforts

Assistant Secretary George Moose will travel with Secretary Perry to Zaire and then continue
on to Kigali to meet with representatives of the new government. He will stress four themes:

— The importance of government support for the humanitarian relief effort;

-- The need to expand the government's political base to ensure that it is adequately
representative;

— The need to respect the rule of law and refrain from reprisals against adversaries;

— The importance of creating a secure and stable environment for the return of refugees.

The NGO Briefing

— Thursday's briefing for NGOs was a great success. Shali's presentation was
excellent. He was applauded by the NGOs. They also had some good ideas about better
coordination, encouraging the UN to do more, etc. We will continue the dialogue here and with
the UN in New York.

— The NGOs went out to the press afterward and praised our effort. Even Lionel
Rosenblatt who has been a frequent critic expressed his support for our efforts. With some
breathing space from some of our critics, we should now have time to produce even more results.

— Given the response to Shali's briefing, we will replicate it today in the White House
Press Room.

-CONFIDENTIAL
CLINTOMHiill PHOTOCOPY
CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

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"3
Refugees and Displaced Persons, 2 August 1994

230,ooo Number of refugees f Entebbe

^ Refugee camp
iHi Refugee concentration
Uganda
Displaced persons - Total: 10,500
Over 50,000

In Karagwe:
Zaire 93,000
Total: 1.7 million
In Goma: W&rtiba
1.2 million Mg*
Tanz
Iota/ displaced In east: \ ania
over 700,000

In Bukavu:
312,000,4

m Benaco
Lumasi
, n
t A. Mia™
274,000

Tanzania
Zaire
Total: 367,000

In Kamonyo/a:li'i%
230,000 lif
ToUvir^m
*0Utm

732940 tHOlSlT) a 94

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 TOP SECRET EO 13526 3.5c
SITE A

CIA
M 5 53 Ml '94

ROM :
3.5c
OFFICE/DESK:
MSG NBR

N I 0
/Africa
ass PHONF. NUMBER
TIME RECEIVED (LOCAL)

3.5c

UBJECT:
Paper f o r Friday's 0945 Ad Hoc Mseting on Rwanda

DELIVER Y INSTR UCTIONS: PAGES:

(INCLUDING COVER)

• HOLD FOR NORMAL DUTY HOURS/ROUTINE

NOTE: FURNISH AFTER DUTY HOUR CONTACT TELEPHONE NUMBER

FOR EACH ADDEE REQUIRING AFTER DUTY HOUR DELIVERY

TRANSMIT To:
AGENCY INDIVIDUAL (NAME) OFFICE ROOM NBR PHONE NBR

Jite N/OSD . Kathleen Hicks (for John Tv>n+v^) QSDyAfrica 703-697-9753

JCS John Shpehan JCS 703-697-3702
State Timothy Wirth 202-647-6240

. '• .
AID Brian Atwood 202-647-9434
NSC Richard Clarke or Eric Schwartz SA/Glohal
OMB Gordon Adams Nat'1 Security 238, OBCB 202-395-4657
(/Pres. Leon' Panetta Chief of Staff West Wino.WH 202-456-6797

i !

-Jjri- XSlJfiAs AAfi^-

Y r 1
**
\EMARKS:

U, D, B, c DECLASSIFIED I N PART
PERE. O. 13526

WASHFAX COVER SHEET

CLINTON LI
TOP SECRBF EO 13526 3.5c
trrottrpy
 ,TH J 5.

TOP SECRET EO 13526 3.5c

4 August 1994

Threats to. Returning Rwandan Refugees

Forces of the victorious Rwandan Patriotic Front--motivated by
desire for unchallenged control over Rwanda and for revenge
against mass k i l l e r s of Tutsis--are the greatest threat to
returning Hutu refugees.

EO 13526 1.4c
RPF soldiers and other Tutsis have been executing
s u s p e c t e d Hutu mass murderers i n both c e n t r a l and
northwestern Rwanda. [ EO 13526 1.4c [the RPF i s
sytematically screening refugees returning from Zaire for
"troublemakers.•
EO 13526 1.4c |RPF troops
have k i l l e d Hutus and looted property in Butare--Rwanda's
second city--and relief workers have told our Embassy in
Kigali that the RPF has blocked access to the countryside
east of Butare.
-- Relief workers also say that thousands of Hutus continue to
arrive Tanzania from eastern Rwanda; we believe many of
these new refugees may be fleeing RPF violence. 3.5c
We doubt that the RPF attacks on returnees and other Hutus w i l l
reach the genocidal proportions of those carried out by the
ousted Hutu regime. Much of the violence probably stems from
fraying discipline within RPF ranks, which has heavily recruited
to swell i t s early April" strength of some 20,000, and to a lesser
extent, from a calculated effort to quash resistance.
-- The RPF regime's Prime M i n i s t e r — a Hutu--yesterday told a
French newspaper that h i s government wanted to punish some
30,000 suspected mass murderers.
Hutu extremists pose another threat to refugees who may want to
return. | EO 13526 1.4c Ithe
ousted Hutu leadership views the refugee population as xts power
base.
We cannot rule out the possibility that soldiers or
militiamen w i l l attack returnees, either within or outside
of Rwanda—possibly in the hope their kinsmen and the
international community w i l l blame the RPF.
-- The odds of such intra-Hutu violence w i l l increase over
time, in our view, as wretched conditions for some refugees
make return increasingly attractive. 3.5c

NTON LIBRARY PH0TOPY

 3.5c IT^LUIUKAO'I 3.5c .WTIIfTBL

4 A u g u s t 1994

ZAIRE: Weapons, Location, and Capabilities of the Former

Rwandan Army 3.5c
Background. I n l a t e July, some 10,000 s o l d i e r s of the
Hutu-dominated Rwandan Army (FAR) and another 10,000 Hutu
militiamen crossed i n t o Zaire along w i t h some 1.7 m i l l i o n
Rwandan refugees. The suddenness of the Rwandan exodus and
Zaire's porous and poorly monitored border allowed a large
number of these soldiers to enter Zaire w i t h t h e i r weapons.
While some of these arms--especially l a r g e r crew serviced
weapons--have been confiscated by Z a i r i a n a u t h o r i t i e s , we
believe that a number of small arms remain i n FAR hapds and
that the heavier weapons may not be secure. 1 3.5c

EO 13526 1.4c

2. fflip confcgplg fchegg w^ppnfl? We judge that troops

from the Zairian Armed Forces (FAZ) probably c o n t r o l these
depots, although we have no specific r e p o r t i n g to confirm
this.
o There has been no reported FAR presence i n the area
100 km north of Goma where the FAZ m i l i t a r y camp i s
located.
o • I n addition, FAR forces are reportedly camped several
km away from the other two depots on the o u t s k i r t s of
Goma and Bukavu. 3.5c
3. I n our view, Zairian President Mobutu and h i s
senior m i l i t a r y commanders i n Kinshasa probably exert l i t t l e
control over confiscated FAR weapons, which l o c a l commanders

SECRET RY PH
 SECRET 3.5c , IfOCOMTRACT | 3.5c iMUlt'l'Ub

and individual FAZ soldiers are probably tempted to s e l l to

survive, especially smaller, portable weapons.
o The 2,000-2,500 Zairian troops in Kivu-- including as
many as 1,000 of Mobutu's relatively more reliable
security forces--are stretched thin, lack rudimentary
military dis.c.iD.line, and suffer severe economic
hardship. 3.5c
4. Can Mobutu gain control of the heavy weapons?
Mobutu i s anxious to garner additional Western goodwill and
he would l i k e l y respond favorably to a Western request that
he confiscate and dispose of heavy FAR weapons. Mobutu
l i k e l y would have to deploy additional units of his more
reliable security units to the Kivu area along with a number
of senior officers to gain control of the weapons, however.
He would probably request that the West pay the salaries and
l o g i s t i c a l fees associated with such a deployment to ensure
troop discipline. Once in his control, Mobutu would l i k e l y
be w i l l i n g to tum the weapons over to Western hands, but he
probably would demand some diplomatic or financial quid pro
quo. 3.5c '
5. How much are the confiscated FAR weapons worth? We
estimate that the FAR's helicopters and armored cars could
probably fetch several hundred thousand dollars on the gray
arms market, depending on their condition. The a r t i l l e r y
and mortar pieces, could also be worth a few hundred thousand
dollars. [~ 3.5c
6. What weapons do the FAR forces in Zaire have? In
both Goma and Bukavu, we judge that there may be 5,000 to
7,000 armed FAR troops who pose a security threat to US
forces and Western r e l i e f workers, and who--although their
ammunition i s in short supply-- threaten to restart
h o s t i l i t i e s inside Rwanda.

EO 13526 1.4c

In Gojna, there are numerous reports that as many as

5,000 FAR troops may be armed. The defense attache
reported e a r l i e r this week that he observed FAR troops
in company and battalion size formations in their camps
northwest of Goma. FAR forces had a 37 mm anti-
a i r c r a f t grun, as well as numerous buses, 2.5 ton
trucks, and two command jeeps. Most of the FAR senior
leadership i s reportedly in Goma.

\\\ DAL RY PHO

_3.5c-
 TH. J z. j j .

SECRBT 3.5c WOeOWTRAOT 3.5c WHIirrDIi

FAR forces may have access to a d d i t i o n a l weapons i n

Zaire. A cache of FAR explosives was discovered near
Bukavu l a s t week and the attache reports that p i l e s of
confiscated weapons remain uncruarded i n Goma.

EO 13526 1.4c

3.5c
i_ x
HOGOti 3.5c Y PHOTOC^
 Secret
EO 13526 3.5c

Intelligence Report
Office of African and Latin American Analysis 4 August 1994

Burundi: Ethnic Tensions Reaching Boiling Point 3.5c

Tensions in Burundi, where the ethnic composition mirrors Rwanda's, could boil
over with little warning, and recent developments are raising the temperature. Both
Burundi's coup-prone, Tutsi-dominated, military and the civilian Tutsi opposition—
emboldened by events in Rwanda—appear more opposed than ever to Hutu majority
rule£ EO 13526 1.4c The Hutu-dominated
government is virtually powerless in the face of Tutsi intransigence. This, in turn, is
strengthening hardline Burundian Hutu leaders, who are increasingly willing to see
conflict as their only means to consolidate their shaky hold on power.

EO 13526 1.4c (hardline Hutus are rearming and expanding

their militias; they apparendy are trying to recruit Zairians and Rwandan Hutu
refugees in Zaire, as well as local Hutus.
These Hutus' nascent military capabilities may tempt them to provoke
conflict with the Tutsi military in the hope that international peacekeepers
will intervene. 3.5c
These developments are raising the odds of an ethnic explosion in Burundi that
could trigger massive new flows of refugees, overwhelm international
humanitarian capabilities, and add to instability in the region. Fearful of
Rwanda's new Tutsi-dominated government, Burundian Hutu refugees probably
would head instead for Tanzania or Zaire, f 3.5c

DECLASSIFIED IN PART
PER E. O. 13526

ALA 94-40008
EO 13526 3.5c

EO 13526 3.5c

CLINTON LIBRARY DU •QCOPY

 Secret
EO 13526 3.5c

Rwandan Developments Polarizing Burundian Hutus and Tutsis

Although the recent wave of ethnic violence in Rwanda has not yet spread into
Burundi-which shares its neighbor's demographic makeup-the massive bloodletting
and population movements in Rwanda are raising the level of mutual distrust between
Burundian Hutus and Tutsis. Each side is increasingly convinced that it cannot risk
sharing power with the other, which is undercutting the influence of the few
remaining moderates who favor peaceful power sharing. | 3.5c

History of Bloodletting
Recent events in Burundi reflect longstanding tensions. Previous episodes of
massive ethnic violence in Burundi-in 1965, 1969, 1972, and 1988-began as
Hutu uprisings against oppression by the Tutsi minority. Centuries of Tutsi
dominance seemed to be coming to an end with the democratic presidential
election in June 1993, which Melchior Ndadaye's pro-Hutu FRODEBU party
swept with more than 60 percent of the vote. The election results, however, have
been subverted by the Tutsi-controlled military. A coup attempt last October
resulted in the murder of President Ndadaye-as well as his constitutionally
designated direct successors-and set off ethnic bloodletting that killed as many as
50,000, drove another 600,000 into neighboring countries, and displaced about 1
million within the country. This year, Ndadaye's appointed Hutu successor died in
the plane crash that also killed Rwandan Hutu President Habyarimana, the Tutsi
Army launched another abortive coup, and the Tutsi opposition has blocked
Acting President Ntibantunganya's efforts to gain legitimacy and control the
government. 3.5c

Tutsis Digging In. Burundian Tutsi fears of sharing power with the Hutu majority
have deepened since the massacres of nearly two-thirds of Rwanda's Tutsis between
early April and mid-July, and the group's desire to regain full control of the
government appears stronger than ever. EO 13526 1.4c the mainly
Tutsi UPRONA party and other opposition groups fiolcflittle stock in the democratic
process, saying it has been subverted by deep-seated ethnic mistrust and would bring
to power a Hutu majority government that would by definition be repressive.
In early August, UPRONA pulled out of power-sharing talks with
FRODEBU, claiming recent appointments of security and local officials
violated the negotiations' ground rules] EO 13526 1.4c iThe
Tutsi opposition has demanded near parity in government jobs and the
creation of the office of vice president, to be filled by a Tutsi. | 3.5c

The 13,000-strong mostly Tutsi security forces remain the Tutsis' insurance policy.
Both officers and rank and file appear as opposed as the Tutsi political opposition to
Hutu majority rule. EO 13526 1.4c the current

This report was prepared by 3 5c |Office of Africa and Latin American Analysis, with
contributions from 3.5c _^LA. Comments and queries are welcome and may be
directed to the Chief,| 3 5
C JALA, on' 3.5c

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTO D

Y Secret
 i>.c.c.r_e.L
EO 13526 3.5c

Army Chief, the Defense Minister, and other Tutsi military leaders, who were among
the instigators of the bloody coup attempt last October, all adamantly reject the idea
of sharing power with Hutus. Their willingness to revolt and ability to do so with
impunity have highlighted the helplessness of Acting President Ntibantuganya and
intimidated many other Hutu politicians, further emboldening the Tutsis-led
opposition.
• Much of Burundi's recent ethnic violence-in which about 1,000 civilians have
been killed since April-has stemmed from the Tutsi Army's "cleansing"
operations in areas where it suspected Hutus of harboring weapons and party
militiasl EO 13526 1.4c

Hutus Edging Toward Conflict. Developments in Rwanda have also diminished the
commitment of Burundi's Hutu leaders to finding a peaceful outcome to their
country's crisis. Some Hutu officials view UPRONA's negotiating strategy as the
first step toward a bloodless coup d'etat that would restore Tutsi dominance,
EO 13526 1.4c |these officials probably are correct.
The widespread Hutu suspicion that the Tutsi Burundian military helped the Tutsi-led
Rwandan Patriotic Front oust the Hutu regime in Kigali, and the weakness of the
Hutu-controlled government in the face of Tutsi intransigence, appear to be making
an armed conflict increasingly attractive to Hutu hardliners.

EO 13526 1.4c

As Burundi's radical Hutus, including Interior Minister Nyangoma, acquire more

military capabilities, they may provoke the Tutsi military into conflict in the hope
that international peacekeepers would deploy to Burundi and disarm the Tutsi
military. 3.5c

Another Humanitarian Disaster Looming

The hardening attitudes of both Hutus and Tutsis appear to be propelling Burundi
toward large-scale ethnic clashes that could spark another humanitarian disaster.
More than 1.3 million displaced persons and former Burundian refugees who have
returned from neighboring countries are already receiving humanitarian assistance.
In addition, nearly 220,000 Burundian refugees remain in Zaire, Tanzania, and
Rwanda. If bloodletting erupts in Burundi, international aid workers in the region
would be overwhelmed by another mass exodus.

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

 Seeret
EO 13526 3.5c

Burundian Hutus would be likely to stay away from their traditional

safehaven in Rwanda, fearing crackdowns by the new Tutsi-dominated
government in Kigali. Fear of the rebels who now control that government
has prompted many of the 300,000 Burundian refugees who fled to Rwanda
last October to return to Burundi; the 53,000 who remain in Rwanda are
mostly in the French-designated safehaven.

New waves of Burundian Hutu refugees probably would head for Tanzania or
Zaire; some 20,000 fled to Zaire last October alone.

Tanzania and Zaire-which already host 60,000 and 106,000 Burundian

refugees, respectively-would be under even more pressure if they had to cope
with a new influx. Both countries face serious security threats as a result of
Hutu irredentist activity in the Rwandan refugees camps. 3.5c

Meanwhile, the arrival of more Rwandan Hutu refugees could overwhelm Burundi's
infrastructure and further aggravate Hutu-Tutsi tensions. Some 373,000 Rwandans-
mostly Hutus-have already arrived; aid workers say 1 million or more displaced
Rwandans along the border face growing threats from malnutrition and disease, and
they may move with little notice. | 3.5c ~'

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY Secret

 1
Ad Hoc Group on Hwandan Relief

Chaired by Mr. Lake

5 August 1994
AGENDA

1. Introduction Mr. Lake

2. Sitreps CIA/JCS
Status of the four r e l i e f "packages"
A d d i t i o n a l needs
3. Consideration of Phase 2 OSD/JCS
4 . Expanding UNAMIR OSD
5 . Burundi State
6. The Hutu Army i n Zaire/Moroccan troops ...State
7. Promoting Repatriation
P r i n c i p l e s t o Guide Repatriation E f f o r t State
Information Campaign OSD/JCS
Promoting Reconciliation i n Rwanda State
8. Other business Mr. Lake

DECLASSIFIED
E.0.13526
White Hoiue Gnidelines, September U, 2006
ByiLi_ NARA, DatelZLMl

CLINTON LffiWn*110T0C0PY
 SECRET | EO 13526 3.5c
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505

0
/J.Vtl
10 August 1994

MEMORANDUM
SUBJECT: Burundi: Background t o C r i s i s

Summary
• Recent developments make an e t h n i c e x p l o s i o n i n Burundi l i k e l y
i n the next s i x months. The c r i s i s could begin w i t h l i t t l e
a d d i t i o n a l warning. This would t r i g g e r massive new flows o f
refugees, overwhelm i n t e r n a t i o n a l humanitarian c a p a b i l i t i e s , and
add t o i n s t a b i l i t y i n the r e g i o n . F e a r f u l o f Rwanda's new
Tutsi-dominated government, Burundian Hutu refugees probably
would head i n s t e a d f o r Tanzania o r Z a i r e . -15c.
Both Burundi's coup-prone, Tutsi-dominated, m i l i t a r y and the
c i v i l i a n T u t s i o p p o s i t i o n appear more opposed than ever t o Hutu
m a j o r i t y r u l e . The Hutu-dominated government i s v i r t u a l l y
powerless i n the face of T u t s i i n t r a n s i g e n c e . This, i n t u r n , i s
s t r e n g t h e n i n g h a r d l i n e Burundian Hutu leaders, who i n c r e a s i n g l y
see c o n f l i c t as t h e i r only means t o c o n s o l i d a t e t h e i r shaky hold
on power. | 3.5c '
Rwandan Developments P o l a r i z i n g Burundian Hutus and T u t s i s .
The massive b l o o d l e t t i n g i n Rwanda has r a i s e d t h e l e v e l of mutual
d i s t r u s t between Burundian Hutus and T u t s i s . Each side i s
convinced t h a t i t cannot r i s k s h a r i n g power w i t h t h e other, which
i s u n d e r c u t t i n g the i n f l u e n c e o f t h e few remaining moderates who
f a v o r power sharing. 3.5c
Burundian T u t s i fears o f s h a r i n g power w i t h the Hutu m a j o r i t y
have deepened since the massacres o f n e a r l y t w o - t h i r d s of Rwanda's
T u t s i s between e a r l y A p r i l and mid-July, and t h e group's d e s i r e t o
r e g a i n f u l l c o n t r o l o f the government appears stronger than ever.
The mainly T u t s i UPRONA p a r t y and other o p p o s i t i o n groups place
l i t t l e stock i n the democratic process, saying i t would b r i n g t o
power a Hutu m a j o r i t y government t h a t would by d e f i n i t i o n be
repressive.

• I n e a r l y August, UPRONA p u l l e d out o f power-sharing t a l k s w i t h

the " r u l i n g " Hutu FRODEBU p a r t y , c l a i m i n g recent appointments
of s e c u r i t y and l o c a l o f f i c i a l s v i o l a t e d t h e n e g o t i a t i o n s '
ground r u l e s . The T u t s i o p p o s i t i o n has demanded near p a r i t y
i n government jobs and t h e c r e a t i o n of t h e o f f i c e of v i c e
p r e s i d e n t , t o be f i l l e d by a T u t s i . | 3,5c

\ EO 13526 3.5c

DECLASSIFIED SECRET _E.QJ.3.526_3..5.c_

PER E.0.13526
 SECRBT I EO 13526 3.5c

SUBJECT: Burundi: Background t o C r i s i s

The 13,000-strong mostly T u t s i s e c u r i t y f o r c e s remain the

1
T u t s i s insurance p o l i c y . The c u r r e n t Army Chief, the Defense
M i n i s t e r , and other T u t s i m i l i t a r y leaders, who were among the
i n s t i g a t o r s of the bloody coup attempt l a s t October, a l l adamantly
r e j e c t the idea o f sharing power w i t h Hutus. T h e i r w i l l i n g n e s s t o
r e v o l t and a b i l i t y t o do so w i t h i m p u n i t y have h i g h l i g h t e d the
helplessness of A c t i n g President Ntibantuganya and i n t i m i d a t e d many
o t h e r Hutu p o l i t i c i a n s .

• Much of Burundi's recent e t h n i c v i o l e n c e - - i n which about 1,000

c i v i l i a n s have been k i l l e d since A p r i l - - h a s stemmed from the
T u t s i Army's "cleansing" operations i n areas where i t
suspected Hutu p a r t y m i l i t i a s o f h a r b o r i n g weapons. | 3.5c
Hutus Edging Toward C o n f l i c t . Developments i n Rwanda have
a l s o diminished the commitment o f Burundi's Hutu l e a d e r s t o f i n d i n g
a p e a c e f u l outcome t o t h e i r country's c r i s i s . Some Hutu o f f i c i a l s
view UPRONA's n e g o t i a t i n g s t r a t e g y as the f i r s t s t e p toward a
b l o o d l e s s coup d'etat t h a t would r e s t o r e T u t s i dominance; these
o f f i c i a l s probably are c o r r e c t . Consequently, armed c o n f l i c t i s
i n c r e a s i n g l y a t t r a c t i v e t o Hutu h a r d l i n e r s .

• The r a d i c a l Hutu PALIPEHUTU movement has been r e o r g a n i z i n g and

rearming i t s 5,000 f i g h t e r s since A p r i l .
• Burundian government o f f i c i a l s have been r e c r u i t i n g Z a i r i a n
n a t i o n a l s and Hutu refugees i n Zaire's South Kivu Region t o
f i g h t the Burundian Army. 3.5c
Another Humanitarian D i s a s t e r Looming. The hardening
a t t i t u d e s o f both Hutus and T u t s i s are p r o p e l l i n g Burundi toward
l a r g e - s c a l e e t h n i c clashes t h a t w i l l create another h u m a n i t a r i a n
d i s a s t e r . More than 1.3 m i l l i o n d i s p l a c e d persons and former
Burundian refugees who have r e t u r n e d from n e i g h b o r i n g c o u n t r i e s are
a l r e a d y r e c e i v i n g humanitarian assistance. I n a d d i t i o n , n e a r l y
220,000 Burundian refugees remain i n Zaire, Tanzania, and Rwanda.

• Burundian Hutus would l i k e l y stay away from t h e i r t r a d i t i o n a l

safehaven i n Rwanda, f e a r i n g the new Tutsi-dominated
government i n K i g a l i . Fear o f the T u t s i has prompted many o f
the 300,000 Burundian refugees who f l e d t o Rwanda l a s t October
t o r e t u r n t o Burundi; the 53,000 who remain i n Rwanda are
mostly i n the French-designated safehaven.
• New waves o f Burundian Hutu refugees probably would head f o r
Tanzania o r Z a i r e . | 3.5c 1

GECRET EO 13526 3.5c

 CECRET EO 13526 3.5c

APPENDIX

Burundi: A " C l i f f Notes" History

Unlike most A f r i c a n s t a t e s , Rwanda and Burundi were not

a r t i f i c i a l creations o f c o l o n i a l r u l e ; t h e i r existence as
p o l i t i c a l e n t i t i e s goes back several c e n t u r i e s . Between the 15th
and 17th c e n t u r i e s , T u t s i herders moved i n t o the area from
Ethiopia and e s t a b l i s h e d dominance over Hutu farmers. Hutus
t r a d i t i o n a l l y were the s o c i a l i n f e r i o r s o f the T u t s i n o b i l i t y ,
who exchanged c a t t l e f o r personal s e r v i c e s . Both groups share
s o c i a l s t r u c t u r e s and the r e l a t e d K i r u n d i and Kinyarwanda
languages. 3.5c
Rwanda's T u t s i monarchy t r a d i t i o n a l l y was more c e n t r a l i z e d
and a u t h o r i t a r i a n than i n Burundi, where the king's power rested
on a s h i f t i n g set of f a c t i o n a l a l l i a n c e s . Rwanda a l s o was marked
by sharper s o c i a l d i s t i n c t i o n s between T u t s i s and Hutus. German
and Belgian r u l e i n the 20th century h i g h l i g h t e d e t h n i c
d i f f e r e n c e s i n both c o u n t r i e s , as c o l o n i a l a u t h o r i t i e s gave
T u t s i s d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e access t o e d u c a t i o n and government jobs.
3.5c
I n Burundi, T u t s i s remained i n c o n t r o l u n t i l l a s t year. The
contrast between Hutu r u l e i n Rwanda and the group's oppression
i n Burundi l e d t o Hutu u p r i s i n g s — i n 1965, 1969, 1972, and 1988 —
t h a t r e s u l t e d i n hundreds of thousands o f deaths. Each Hutu
a t t a c k fueled T u t s i f e a r s of e x t e r m i n a t i o n , and each bloody
repression r e i n f o r c e d the Hutus' d e s i r e f o r revenge. Periodic
ethnic unrest r e s u l t e d i n three successful coups d ' e t a t and many
f a i l e d attempts. The l a s t T u t s i p r e s i d e n t , P i e r r e Buyoya, judged
the s i t u a t i o n was untenable and o r c h e s t r a t e d l a s t year's e l e c t i o n
and t r a n s f e r of power. 3.5c
In the June 1993 e l e c t i o n , Melchoir Ndadaye's pro-Hutu
FRODEBU p a r t y won w i t h more than 60 percent o f the v o t e . The
e l e c t i o n r e s u l t s , however, have been subverted by the T u t s i -
c o n t r o l l e d m i l i t a r y . A coup attempt l a s t October r e s u l t e d i n the
murder of President Ndadaye--as w e l l as h i s c o n s t i t u t i o n a l l y
designated d i r e c t successors--and set o f f e t h n i c b l o o d l e t t i n g
t h a t k i l l e d as many as 50,000, drove another 600,000 i n t o
neighboring c o u n t r i e s , and displaced about 1 m i l l i o n w i t h i n the
country. This year, Ndadaye's appointed Hutu successor d i e d i n
the plane crash t h a t also k i l l e d Rwandan Hutu President
Habyarimana, the T u t s i Army launched another a b o r t i v e coup, and
the T u t s i o p p o s i t i o n has blocked A c t i n g President
Ntibantunganya's e f f o r t s t o gain l e g i t i m a c y and c o n t r o l t h e
government.
3.5c

CECRET EO 13526 3.5c

Rice, Susan E.

From: Clarke, Richard A.

To: Affairs; @GLOBAL - Global Affairs
Subject: , ._ ' POTUS for your clearance!
Date: '-'flwsbay, August 11,1994 5:17PM
Priority: High

Package as Info Memo to Pres Covered by a Note from me to Lake

TO: Lake
FM: RAC
RE: Rwanda

Attached is the memorandum to the President you requested.

TO: POTUS
FM: LAKE
RE: Rwanda

While we have made progress of the emergency relief situation in and around Goma, three problems
threaten the success of the Rwandan relief operation.

First, the volcano near Goma is emitting ash and may soon erupt with lava that could threaten the
refugees. The US Geological Survey's expert believes that the current activity is an indicator that a major lava
eruption could occur within four weeks. We are providing the UN with all of the information we have on the
volcano's status and are urgently consulting with them, the French, and the Rwandan government about what
should be done with the refugees near the volcano. We may be able to use the volcanic activity as a catalyst to
begin large scale refugee repatriation. Before such repatriation occurs, however, we need to have a relief and
security system in place in Rwanda. The Rwandan government and the UN (both the peacekeepers and the
refugee programs) would have to coooperate quickly and effectively to begin a major repatriation effort soon.

Second, the Hutu dominated former Rwandan army is disrupting relief operations in Zaire and is
intimidating refugees who may want to return. The Zaire Army is not very capable of dealing with security
problems in this remote part of the country. We are consulting with the French and Zaire about what can be done
to insure the disarmament and control of this force. While the solution is likely to require the introduction of some
non-American peacekeeping force in the Goma area, we are examining whether there are things that the US
could do to help address this problem.

CLINTON LIBf&fcY PHOTOCOPY

 Third, ethnic tensions in Burundi are increasing. A Hutu/Tutsi massacre there could rival what
happened in Rwanda. We are taking steps to encourage mediation and conciliation. The Organization of African
Unity has deployed human rights observers. Several Deputy Representatives to the UN Security Council will visit
Burundi as a team in the next few days. We are trying to assemble a team of prominent Americans to visit there
soon. Finally, at the UNSYG Boutros-Ghali's request, we have offered to have some US Air Force relief cargo
flights for the Rwandan refugees land in Burundi as a reminder that the international community is watching. We
have declined for now to place a US Air Force airport team there, however, because a larger presence of US
military might be counterproductive and destabilizing.

CLINTON L l M W PHOTOCOPY
SECRET

Rwanda Relief Ad Hoc Group

Summary & Conclusions

12 Aug 94 Meeting

1. Volcano: USGC experts will be dispatched to the area around Goma

immediately to do an assessment of the risk of a lava flow or gaseous spread on
Lake Kivu.

EO 13526 1.4d

3. UNAMIR: State will work with USUN to insure that the remaining problems
holding up the Ethiopian deployment are resolved ASAP. State and USUN will
insure that the UN issues an LOI indicating intention to pay for USAF flights
supporting the Tunisian deployment.

State will request Secretary Christopher to send a letter to Secretary Perry

requesting support for UNAMIR under the legal arrangements o£ the United
Rations Participation Act. This formal request will permit DOD to act prior to the
completion of UN contracts to repay DOD.

EO 13526 1.4d

5. Burundi: The US will support Salem-Salem (OAU) in his call for a summit in
Bujumbura. EUCOM will work with UNHCR to identify loads that USAF can fly
in to Bujumbura, to create a periodic USAF presence there. State and NSC will
work to create a high level US Delegation that will visit Burundi soon as a
stabilizing measure.

SECRET

DECLASSIFIED IN PART
PER E. O. 13526
 CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

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 CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

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 CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

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 GECRET EO 13526 3.5c

25 August 1994

Zaire-Rwanda: Moving FAR Units North to Bunia 3.5c

1. What i s the status of the Former Rwandan Army (FAR) i n

eastern Zaire? We believe that there are some 10,000-12,000
soldiers of the FAR i n eastern Zaire who r e t a i n t h e i r personal
weapons. About 10,000 are near Goma i n b a t t a l i o n s i z e camps;
they have retained m i l i t a r y d i s c i p l i n e , t r a i n each morning, and
respond to senior command and c o n t r o l . While most of the FAR's
heavy equipment was siezed when they crossed the border l a s t
month, they continue to control a 37-mm a n t i - a i r c r a f t gun and a
few truck mounted mortars. Most of the 7,000-8,000 FAR troops
near Bukavu do not appear to have retained t h e i r weapons and they
are reportedly less disciplined, more disorganized, and less
l o y a l to their o f f i c e r s than t h e i r comrades near Goma. EO 13526 3^5c

2. Can the FAR be persuaded to move? Most of the armed FAR

troops i n Goma probably are committed to remaining an organized
force near the Rwandan border i n order to more e a s i l y resume
h o s t i l i t i e s against the new Rwandan P a t r i o t i c Front (RPF)
government. They reportedly have received four months of salary
i n advance, are receiving (partly through t h e f t of r e l i e f
assistance) adequate food, water, and medical supplies, and l i v e
i n m i l i t a r y - s t y l e tents. FAR u n i t s near Bukavu probably would
also resist moving, but many soldiers i n t h i s area are reportedly
s e l l i n g t h e i r weapons to buy food, suggesting that some might be
w i l l i n g to move to new camps that offered b e t t e r l i v i n g
conditions. I 3^5c '

3. What i s P r e s i d e n t Mobutu's view? EO 13526 1.4c

EO 13526 1.4c
EO 13526 1.4c Mobutu has publicly stated
that he w i l l prevent the FAR from resuming h o s t i l i t i e s , but we
have no specific evidence that he i s a c t i v e l y pursuing such an
objective. Mobutu has long-standing p o l i t i c a l and m i l i t a r y t i e s
to the former Hutu regime. | 3.5c

DECLASSIFIED IN PART
PER E. 0. 13526
EO 13526 3.5c

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

 LE.Q_13.526_3.5cJ

4. Can Mobutu's m i l i t a r y forces f o r c i b l y move the FAR?

Probably n o t . Even i f Mobutu openly supported such a p o l i c y ,
there a r e o n l y about 2,500 Z a i r i a n troops--perhaps as many as
1,000 from Mobutu's Special P r e s i d e n t i a l D i v i s i o n (DSP)--in Kivu.
Z a i r i a n t r o o p s are deployed p r i m a r i l y i n Goma and Bukavu and
r a r e l y t r a v e l t o FAR camps l o c a t e d outside o f town. These troops
are i l l - d i s c i p l i n e d , p o o r l y t r a i n e d and l e d , and r e c e i v e l i t t l e
l o g i s t i c a l support; Z a i r i a n troops are l i k e l y responsible f o r a t
l e a s t h a l f o f a l l s e c u r i t y i n c i d e n t s near Goma. Z a i r i a n troops
would almost be c e r t a i n l y r e l u c t a n t t o f o r c i b l y attempt t o
redeploy t h e FAR, f e a r i n g - - c o r r e c t l y i n our v i e w - - t h a t they would
be outmanned, outgunned, and outclassed. The FAR senjpc
l e a d e r s h i p does spend considerable time i n Goma and Bukavu.
however, and Z a i r i a n forces would l i k g l y stand a b e t t e r chance of
detaining individual officers. 3.5c

5. Would moving the FAS. t o Bunia s i g n i f i c a n t l y undermine

i t s c a p a b i l i t i e s t o renew h o s t i l i t i e s ? Yes. Bunia i s over 400
km n o r t h o f Goma on the Ugandan border, s h a r p l y l i m i t i n g t h e i r
a b i l i t y t o conduct operations i n Rwanda. The roads i n the area
are v e r y p o o r - - e s p e c i a l l y during the c u r r e n t r a i n y season--and
the town's a i r p o r t probably cannot handle s i z a b l e t r a n s p o r t
a i r c r a f t . There are few Hutus among the indigenous p o p u l a t i o n ,
denying t h e FAR a n a t u r a l base of support. 3.5c

6. What a r e the i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r Zaire? P u t t i n g the FAR i n

Bunia would probably have l i t t l e immediate impact on Zaire's
p o l i t i c a l dynamics. Kinshasa would l i k e l y demand t h a t
i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l i e f agencies provide f o r FAR t r o o p w e l f a r e i n
order t o minimize t h e i r t h r e a t t o the l o c a l community. Mobutu
has s c a t t e r e d thousands of i l l - d i s c i p l i n e d , d i s l o y a l r e g u l a r Army
s o l d i e r s throughout Zaire's i n t e r i o r w i t h no obvious means o f
l o g i s t i c support. Although these troops o c c a s i o n a l l y engage i n
v i o l e n t l o o t i n g t o s u r v i v e , the unrest i s u s u a l l y contained t o
the i n d i v i d u a l town and has had no p o l i t i c a l impact. 3.5c

7. The deployment, however, could p o t e n t i a l l y complicate

Zaire's r e l a t i o n s w i t h Uganda, which have o f t e n been tense. The
border area has long hosted numerous armed groups t h a t engage i n
cross-border u n r e s t . The FAR, which views Uganda as an enemy f o r
s u p p o r t i n g t h e RPF, could t r y t o d e s t a b i l i z e President Musevini
as w e l l as l o o k i n g f o r o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o launch a t t a c k s against
Rwanda. Under such circumstances, Uganda might r e t a l i a t e w i t h
cross border a t t a c k s or support t o a n t i - Z a i r i a n groups. 3.5c

EO 13526 3.5c

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

 .CECaEI.
EO 13526 3.5c

26 August 1994
Human Rights Abuses by the Rwandan P a t r i o t i c Front
Reports from a range of sources says t h a t forces l o y a l t o
the Rwandan P a t r i o t i c Front are k i l l i n g e t h n i c Hutus, s e i z i n g
p r o p e r t y , and committing other abuses throughout Rwanda. These
r e p o r t s appear p l a u s i b l e t o us. They r e f l e c t both conscious
p o l i c y by the RPF, which dominates the new regime i n K i g a l i , and
serious problems of d i s c i p l i n e and command-and-control among RPF
troops. We estimate t h a t at most s e v e r a l thousand Hutus have
been k i l l e d by RPF troops and s u p p o r t e r s - - f a r short of the
genocide p e r p e t r a t e d by the ousted Hutu regime against e t h n i c
T u t s i s . Nonetheless, whatever the m o t i v a t i o n , the abuses are
aggravating the r e g i o n a l refugee c r i s i s by d r i v i n g more Hutus out
of Rwanda and by b o l s t e r i n g r a d i c a l Hutu leaders' claims t h a t ,
because returnees face slaughter at thq RPF's hands, they should
remain o u t s i d e the country's borders. 3.5c
Evidence of P o l i c i e a Encouraging Abuses
-- Continued f l i g h t o f refugees i n t o Tanzania--some 40,000 have
l e f t t h i s month--suggests a systematic RPF crackdown on the
Hutu p o p u l a t i o n of Kibungo P r e f e c t u r e , which the Front has
c o n t r o l l e d f o r f o u r months.| EQ 13526 1.4c
EO 13526 1.4c [Hutu
refugees' d e s c r i p t i o n s of harsh RPF measures; Tanzanian
a u t h o r i t i e s have been p u l l i n g 20 t o 30 bodies each week from
the Kagera River on the border. Since mid-May we have
received a steady stream of s i m i l a r r e p o r t s of RPF JLJLY_
EO 13526 1.4c

We b e l i e v e t h i s behavior represents scorched-earth t a c t i c s by

the RPF i n response t o an ongoing armed t h r e a t . f r o m Hutu
elements i n Kibungo. I EO_1-3.5.2.6_Li.C-

-- We believe that s i m i l a r crackdowns--meant to encourage Tutsis

return as w e l l as to punish Hutus—have taken place elsewhere
in Rwanda. EO 13526 1.4c ~~~ Irelief
agencies were not allowed i n t o "the eastern p o r t i o n s of Butare
and Gitarama Prefectures d u r i n g most of July--a p e r i o d when
EO 13526 1.4c d e s t r u c t i o n or s e i z u r e of Hutu p r o p e r t y
i n the towns of Butare and Gitarama. This suggests the RPF
wanted no o u t s i d e witnesses of a v i o l e n t r o o t i n g out of
suspected enemies. 3.5c

EO 13526 3.5c

DECLASSIFIED IN PART
PER E. O. 13526
in
CLINTON A
RY PHOTOCOPY
 _GEC.REJC_
EO 13526 3.5c
I n K i g a l i , according t o press r e p o r t s , T u t s i e x i l e s r e t u r n i n g
from Uganda say the RPF has given them houses and businesses
seized from Hutus. We view t h i s as evidence t h a t the Front i s
a c t i v e l y working t o t i l t the c a p i t a l ' s e t h n i c balance i n i t s
favor. 3.5c
The above a c t i o n s would be c o n s i s t e n t w i t h the RPF's p r a c t i c e
d u r i n g the c i v i l war o f not l e t t i n g c i v i l i a n o r h u m a n i t a r i a n
concerns keep i t from o b t a i n i n g m i l i t a r y o b j e c t i v e s . The
RPF's remorseless s h e l l i n g of Hutu p o s i t i o n s i n K i g a l i between
May and J u l y i n f l i c t e d heavy c o l l a t e r a l losses, i n c l u d i n g
barrages t h a t damaged Red Cross h o s p i t a l s and UN f a c i l i t i e s .
S i m i l a r l y , an RPF mortar a t t a c k on f l e e i n g Hutu t r o o p s i n
Goma, Zaire, i n mid-July set o f f a deadly panicked stampede
among c i v i l i a n refugees i n the t a r g e t zone. 3.5c
RPF leaders have created an atmosphere conducive to abuses
with public pronouncements on the need for " j u s t i c e " on a
massive s c a l e against the authors of the a n t i - T u t s i genocide.
Some have spoken of the need t o a r r e s t , t r y , and punish up to
40,000 mass murderers, and the RPF has c i r c u l a t e d l i s t s w i t h
hundreds o f names of suspected r i n g l e a d e r s . | 3.5c '
Evidence of Uncontrollable Armed Groups

EO 13526 1.4c the Rwandan

P a t r i o t i c Army's control over i t s troops has shrunk as i t s
strength has swollen past 25,000 from an ear y A p r i l l e v e l of
10,000. EO 13526 1.4c RPF t r o o p s went
on a spree of r a p i n e and summary executions a f t e r they
captured K i g a l i on 4 J u l y . The RPF regime's announcement t h i s
week of the execution of two s o l d i e r s f o r a t r o c i t i e s and the
a r r e s t of 60 o t h e r s i n d i c a t e s t h a t i t i s aware i n d i s c i p l i n e i s
a problem. Prime M i n i s t e r Twagiramungu--not an RPF member--
says t h a t the m i l i t a r y ' s d i s c i p l i n e has evaporated and t h a t
Defense M i n i s t e r Kagame may have l o s t c o n t r o l of the f o r c e ,

EO 13526 1.4c
the RPF
has armed r e t u r n i n g T u t s i refugees and g i v e n m i l i t a r y t r a i n i n g
to n e a r l y every able-bodied T u t s i t o defend a g a i n s t Hutu
r a i d s . These v i g i l a n t e groups have k i l l e d Hutus who have
f a l l e n under s u s p i c i o n due t o t h e i r education, p u r p o r t e d
p o l i t i c a l b e l i e f s , or coveted possessions. 3.5c
Outside of "hot" zones such as Kibungo, we b e l i e v e these
v i g i l a n t e s and undisciplined, vengeful soldiers--operating on
t h e i r own-- have been r e s p o n s i b l e f o r the a t r o c i t i e s . This was
almost c e r t a i n l y the case i n the murder of the C a t h o l i c
Archbishop of K i g a l i and other clergymen i n e a r l y June. I t
probably ha a l s o been t r u e of r e p o r t e d massacres of Hutu
v i l l a g e r s a long the edge of the former French s e c u r i t y zone i n
southwester n Rwanda and apparent k i l l i n g s of some r e t u r n i n g
refugees i n Gisenyi P r e f e c t u r e . [ 3.5c

EO 13526 3.5c
mNTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY
 GDCnBT
EO 13526 3.5c

The RPF may l a c k t h e muscle and t h e p o l i t i c a l w i l l to r e i n i n

freelance T u t s i k i l l e r s . | EO 13526 1.4c |the dispersal
of RPF troops across Rwanda has g r e a t l y d i l u t e d the command-
and-control exercised by commanders. At t h e same time, as
long as t h e regime f e e l s under t h r e a t o f a t t a c k , i t i s l i k e l y
to be r e l u c t a n t t o r e i n in--much less p u n i s h - - i t s e n t h u s i a s t i c
supporters among the v i g i l a n t e bands and newly r e c r u i t e d
troops. | 3.5c ^

EO 13526 3.5c
 CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

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DECLASSIFIED IN PART
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D
 SECRET

Ad Hoc Meeting on Rwanda

Wednesday, September 7, 1994
10:30 a.m. - 11:30 a.m.
White House S i t u a t i o n Room

AGENDA

1. S i t u a t i o n Report CIA

2. O p e r a t i o n Support Hope

--Timetable for U.S. Withdrawal JCS

--Additional USG Contributors ....State/AID

3. Security in Refugee Camps in Zaire....State/OSD

4. UNAMIR Deployment OSD

5. Radios OSD

6. Burundi State

DECLASSIFIED
PER E.0.13526
CLI NTONdrfBRAftY-^HOTOCOPY
F:\Email\Data_Source\Al\Record\CD001\sep94\052054.html Page 1 of 1

NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

14-Sep-1994 15:58 EDT

MEMORANDUM FOR:
RECORDS ( RECORDS@Al@OEOB )

FROM: Rice, Susan E. (rices@NSCSTF@OEOB@MSGATE@VAXB)

SUBJECT: - [COMF1 DSNTlAL'j- Ad Hoc Meeting on Rwanda

Message C r e a t i o n Date was a t 14-SEP-1994 15:36:00

Tony/Nancy—

We had proposed h o l d i n g an Ad Hoc Meeting on Rwanda on Thursday. Since t h a t

t i m e , S t a t e and DOD have s u b s t a n t i a l l y narrowed t h e i r d i f f e r e n c e s on t h e key
i s s u e o f t h e e x t e n t o f c o n t i n u e d USG support f o r UNHCR e f f o r t s i n t h e
region.

Given t h i s , and t h e e x c e p t i o n a l l y p r e s s i n g demands on your time t h i s week,

we recommend NOT h o l d i n g an Ad Hoc Meeting t h i s week. I n s t e a d , we w i l l
f o r w a r d t o you a memo t o t h e P r e s i d e n t recommending t h a t he approve t h e JCS
w i t h d r a w a l p l a n and t h e p r o v i s i o n o f s p e c i f i c a d d i t i o n a l goods and s e r v i c e s
t o UNHCR. We w i l l a l s o update you on o t h e r developments r e : Rwanda/Burundi.
We w i l l l e t you know when we t h i n k t h e time i s r i p e f o r another Ad Hoc
meeting.

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PER E.0.13526
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 CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

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_—. 'i
^7"
CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

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5'. t^j^A^

^C^JU^O ^J^xx^^r (QtxMjisX tf^l i x V a ^ ^ ^ d u ^ )

2E8759B2.FIN Page 1 of2

MSMail

DATE-TIME 26 September 94 16:27

FROM Rice, Susan E.
CLASSIFICATION -CONriDENTIAL
SUBJECT Subject: RE: [CONriDCNTIAL]
TO Richardson, Craig
CARBON_COPY NO CC's on THIS MESSAGE
TEXT BODY
Sounds good. Why don't you run with this. Ask eric for the appropriate
contact person at DOD. It's likely to be someone in Pat Irvin's office, if
not her. She's DAS for humanitarian. I don't know who the JS person would
be. Again try Eric.

We survived the speech. The POTUS plugged Menem by name. All in all,
considering, it's gone well. The BBG meeting was a success, and POTUS had a
nice brief visit to the UN Situation Center, which was rewarding from my
perspective. We had customary speech hell, but in the end, I think it was
ok.

Thanks again for all your tremendous help. Your memo on White HELL is
becoming the gospel on the subject. Congrats.

From: Richardson, Craig V.

To: Clarke, Richard A.; Rice, Susan E.
CC: /N, NonRecord at A l
Subject: [UNCLASSIFIED] More White Helmets
Date: Monday, September 26, 1994 03:38 PM

I just spoke to Chat Blakeman -- really nice guy. He mentioned the line in
the POTUS UNGA speech and suggested that "Looks like we are headed more
toward your guys' view of White Helmets than the Peace Corp-type view." I
agreed.

On Wednesday, Frijiero (Menem's envoy) is essentially meeting with the same

crew that met last Friday at State. Chat proposes that we (1) arrange for a
crisis response person from DOD to show up at that meeting or (2) arrange
for a separate Frijiero visit to the DOD element that does - say - the
Rwanda ops or (3) both. I said I thought this was a good idea, since it
really doesn't make sense to have a Peace Corps type as interlocutor, in
light of the POTUS speech.

Reactions? Suggestions? Who should be call at DOD? DECLASSIFIED)

PER E„0„ 13526
CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY
2E8E544E.FIN Page 1 of 3

MSMail

DATE-TIME 01 October 94 23:37

FROM Steinberg, Donald K.
CLASSIFICATION CONriDENTIAL
SUBJECT Subject: [CONFIDENTIAL] Update on Mandela
TO Cicio, Kristen K.
Darby, Melanie B.
Emery, Mary C.
Hall, Wilma G.
Hawkins, Ardenia R.
Millison, Cathy L.
Reed, James W.
Sens, Andrew D.
Veit, Katherine M.
Wolin, NealS.
Wright, Allison M.
CARBON COPY Anderson, Marjorie
Atkin, Timothy J.
Battenfield, Pat
Beers, Rand R.
Blakeman, Earle C.
Brown, Dallas
Clarke, Richard A.
Darragh, Sean J.
Deshazer, Macarthur X.
Feinberg, Richard E.
Harris, Elisa D.
Jensen-Moran, Jeri L.
Kreczko, Alan J.
Lindsey, Wanda
Mazzuchi, Anthony D.
Norman, Marcia G.
Owen, Elisa J.
Rice, Susan E.
Richardson, Craig
Rocha, Victor M.
Rossin, Larry
Roundtree, Beverly J.
Sartor, Cyril
Schwartz, Eric P.
Simon, Steven N.
Steinberg, Donald K.
Teraji, Barbara
Marcel T. Thomas

DECLASSIFIED IN PART

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOC)PY

! PER E.O. 13526
2E8E544E.FIN Page 2 of 3

Cathryn, Thorup L.
Turner, Veronica B.
TEXT BODY
Nancy, Will and Others:

I spoke this evening with Hennie de Klerk, the Americas director for the
South African Department of Foreign Affairs and honcho of the Mandela State
Visit. He said that the President, Foreign Minister and others will be
discussing various aspects of the visit tomorrow (Sunday) afternoon in New
York, including the question of the radio address and the walk at the
Lincoln Memorial. He said that the plan is now for Mandela to depart from
Washington on Friday night after the S.A. Embassy's reception, which could
complicate the radio address planning. He stressed there were no hard
feelings over the change in Mandela's overnight plans on Tuesday, although
he implied that Mandela had warmed up to the idea of staying at the White
House and was actually looking forward to it....

We discussed the substance of the visit, including the 14 separate

initiatives we plan to pursue, and he thought all of them were reasonable.
He wanted to look at the language we planned to use and I faxed him a
non-paper describing the initiatives. I EO 13526 1.4b. EO 13526 1

EO 13526 1.4b, EO 13526 1.4d

left open the possibility of issuing a joint communique on behalf of the two
governments or presidents describing some or all of the new initiatives.

Hennie affirmed that it would be good for the two Presidents to talk about
Africa-wide issues, not just the bilateral relationship. He appreciated
that President Clinton plans to thank Mandela for his initiatives in
Lesotho, Mozambique and Angola. I mentioned some of our new initiatives
vis-a-vis conflict resolution, demobilization of oversized African armies
and debt relief ~ he agreed that these might be good topics for the
Presidents to discuss and to which they could publicly reaffirm their
commitment.! EO 13526 1.4b, EO 13526 1.4d"

We talked about the Southern Africa Enterprise Development Fund. We agreed

that the best way to handle the announcement of this Southern Africa-wide
program is to have President Clinton announce it at the press availability
on Wednesday with Andy Young (the new board director), Brian Atwood and the

Ambassadors from the Southern African nations present.

(Dick/Larry) I asked about Haiti. He said that he does not yet have an

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

2E8E544E.FIN Page 3 of 3

answer as to what President Mandela will say.| EO 13526 1.4b, EO 13526 1.4d

EO 13526 1.4b, EO 13526 1.4d

(Elisa) I asked about MTCR. Hennie said he expected the agreement to be

signed in Pretoria on Monday and that a quiet release would be issued there.
He wasn't certain how the South Africans wanted the issue to be address
publicly during the visit -- that is, whether they wanted to be
congratulated on this step. He said he would get back to us on the issue.

EO 13526 1.4b, EO 13526 1.4d

I'll be talking with Hennie again tomorrow afternoon if there's anything

anyone would like me to raise with him.

Don

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

 CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

IJL514> i « U ^ Ji* UJ5V0?

3:
O
H
o
n
o

•I
2E9484EC.FIN Page 1 of 1

MSMail

DATE-TIME 06 October 94 16:16

FROM Rice, Susan E.
CLASSIFICATION -CONnDCNTIAt
SUBJECT Subject: [COfrJriDENTfrtiTTtJpdate on Funding for Rwanda's IFI Arrears
TO Cicio, Kristen K.
Emery, Mary C.
Hall, Wilma G.
Veit, Katherine M.
Wolin, Neal S.
CARBON COPY Atkin, Timothy J.
Battenfield, Pat
Beers, Rand R.
Brown, Dallas
Clarke, Richard A.
Darragh, Sean J.
Deshazer, Macarthur X.
Lindsey, Wanda
Norman, Marcia G.
Owen, Elisa J.
Rice, Susan E.
Richardson, Craig
Roundtree, Beverly J.
Sartor, Cyril
Schwartz, Eric P.
Simon, Steven N.
Steinberg, Donald K.

TEXT BODY
NOTE FOR LAKE

State has agreed to provide $2 mill, of the $7.2 mill, required to pay off
Rwanda's IFI arrears. State is demarching Germany and Belgium to make
generous contributions as well. State hopes for responses by mid-late next
week.

At this time, we will need to determine the amount of the remaining

requirement, if any, and State may need to provide the balance. Depending
on the size of the shortfall, State/AID may have to be "encouraged" to find
the funds.

DECLASSIFIED
PER E.0.13526
CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY
2E9B296A.FIN Page 1 of 1

MSMai

DATE-TIME 11 October 94 17:13

FROM Atkin, Timothy J.
CLASSIFICATION CONriDENTIAL
SUBJECT Subject: [CONFIDENTIAfc]-
TO Deshazer, Macarthur X.
CARBON_COPY Rice, Susan E.
TEXTBODY
Mac:

At the Rwanda SVTS, not much new info today - FYI, there is drawdown
authority for $25M this fiscal year (95) specified for warcrimes tribunals
but not country specific, so. . . the Rwanda portion can be funded from that
too.

Arrears: State has identified $2.5M and is prepping demarches to go out

(maybe tomorrow) to seek other donors. OMB is confirming w/Treas that the
total World Bank arrears is $4.4M and not linked to the African Devt Bank
arrears.

Security issues/UNAMIR mandate will be addressed by the peacekeeping core

group later this week.

No SVTS on friday - next meeting will be next Tues at 1:00 pm.

DECLASSIFIED
PER E.0.13526

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

2EA00E7F.FIN Page 1 of 1

MSMai

DATE-TIME 15 October 94 10:18

FROM Atkin, Timothy J.
CLASSIFICATION -CONriDENTIAL
SUBJECT Subject: [CONTIDENTIAL-f Rwanda War Crimes Tribunal
TO Simon, Steven N.
CARBON_COPY Rice, Susan E.
TEXT BODY
hi steve: the war crimes tribunal working group is focusing on putting
together a $3M voluntary contribution to jump start the establishment of the
Rwanda portion of the Yugoslav war crimes tribunal. So far, they have
identified $1M within the DOS budget that can (and is willing to be)
reprogrammed for this function. Still trying to think of where $2M more can
come from!!???

Once the budget needs are id'd at the UN and approved in december, we will
make our assessment contribution out of the $25M of drawdown funds for war
crimes tribunals.

Any thoughts about the start up contribution????????????????????????

PER E„<a 13526

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY
ICT ZT '94 lij:2bPH US-rHSSIOrMf. P. 1 • 3

U N I T E D STATES M I S S I O N TO T H E U N I T E D NATIONS

DATE : ^Cdr^tf CLASSIFICATION

FROM
(Phone Number)
SUBJECT L
PHONE i

Pf bi^MlMh^ (inW7-0l& tn-tiMl-WlZ

Quzvzptj (io^yS-^j frsMr-i^

REMARKS!

•ffic« P o l i t i c a l Military Affairs Phoned (212) 415-4333

us Mission t« the United Natiens UnclaasFAX* (212) 415-4154
799 UN Plaza ClassFax# (212) 1 (b)f7)c
New Yerk, NY l»tl7

DECLASSIFIED
PER E.O. 13526
 OCT '94 liZi:Z"PM IJS-I'HSSIC'N-NY P.I z

•CQUVIVURTLAL

UNITED STATES M I S S I O N TO T H E U N I T E D NATIONS

799 UNITED NATIONS PLAZA

NEW YORK, N. Y. 10017 25 October 1994
-r hi

TO: Interagency Group on Rwanda i /K->Ti|w---v--«^--^

FROM: Susan Varisco£j\

SUBJECT: Rwanda: UN Options for Security i n the Camps

DPKO has received several reporta i n the last week from the
UN-Zaire Joint Working Group (led by the Deputy Force Commander
of UNAMIR) and from SRSG Khan. USUN has not received copies of
the reports, but has been briefed on t h e i r conclusions.
J t . Working Group Conclusions: i
UN Report
The initial report submitted by the UN participants concludes
that a 10,000-12,000 size force is required to separate and move /M
the militia, leaders, and the army and contain them thereafter.
It also concludes that the only force capable of accomplishing
this mandate is a strong national force or multinational force
consisting mainly of one strong state. fert^cih Z ^ ^ J i
0) The report also stresses the need t o s t a r t a p o l i t i c a l
dialogue between refugee leaders and the Government of Rwanda as
well as i n i t i a t e s i g n i f i c a n t social and economic reconstruction
inside the country.

The formal report includes Zairian input, but contains a less

substantive discussion of the options, i t proposes three options:

5)^ o A purely diplomatic approach t o removing m i l i t a r y , m i l i t i a

and leaders from the camps.
r o Joint Zairian/UN and Tanzania/UN Ch V I I operations. Zaire
and Tanzania would have the leading role and the UN would
provide l o g i s t i c a l and other support.
The recommended option i s a Ch V I I national operation as
described i n the UN report above.

CLIN ON LIBW^OTOCOPY
 :
OCT 25 '94 10 29PM US-MISSION-NY P. 3.- 3

OONPIDEMTIAL

SRSG Recommendation:
In his i n i t i a l submission the SRSG recommended a smaller UN
force (size undefined). The force would provide security for
humanitarian operations and attempt to "suppress" the militia
through presence. Ch VII authority was recommended. J/poUi
Khan also emphasized p o l i t i c a l dialogue and socioeconomic
reconstruction as integral components of the operation.
The SRSG submitted a second recommendation after DPKO
^•requestecL-acih VI option. He suggested a UN operation that would
g<- t r a i n (Zairiari and^Tahzania^ forces t o police the refugee camps
2^ and w?ot*ct~humanitarian workers. This option would presumably
include material assistancef as well.
f SYG Report:
After t h i s week's interagency meeting, DPKO w i l l develop i t s
own report t o submit t o the Council. I t w i l l probably present a
range of options based on the submissions of the J t . Working .
•< ^ Group and the SRSG and USG input. '

CLINTON LI OCOPY
 c 0
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U*-*J L P H StM^4 accAV) Crt^- .

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

 4
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CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

 Secret

Intelligence Report
Office of African and Latin American Analysis 28 October 1994

Rwanda: Reassessing the Demographic Balance 3.5c

Since the systematic genocide between April and June 1994 of hundreds of thousands
of Tutsis in Rwanda, a large influx of Tutsi exiles from neighboring states and the
massive flight of Hutus appear to have boosted the Tutsi share of the population. We
estimate that about 5.3 million people are now living within Rwanda's borders,
approximately 11 percent of whom are Tutsis.
• More than 2 million Rwandans, mostly Hutus, have become refugees in
neighboring states this year. Nearly as many are displaced within Rwanda,
and Rwandan Patriotic Front threats to forcibly close displaced person
camps could drive many of these Hutus into exile as well.
• The slaughter of an estimated 375,000 Tutsis earlier this year has been largely
offset by the return of some 340,000 longtime Tutsi exiles, mainly from
Burundi and Uganda. Most of Rwanda's surviving Tutsis are settling around
Kigali and in the eastern part of thd country, according to| EO 13526 1.4c
press reports. | 3.5c i

We expect this pattern to persist for the next year or two. The RPF, which
dominates the new regime in Kigali, is based in the Tutsi diaspora and undoubtedly
views the new demographic balance as tightening its grip on power and as
protective of Tutsi ethnic interests. Top RPF leaders have publicly stated, for
instance, that they could wait "50 years for the Hutu refugees to return.
• Most Hutu refugees appear unwilling to return home as long as the RPF is
in charge.[^_ EO 13526 1.4C [individual Hutus
fear retribution by Tutsis, and Hutuleaders want to keep refugees in the
camps, where they form the political base for a self-styled Hutu govemment-
in-exile. 3.5c
Over the longer run, however, Hutu refugees are likely to return, restoring a
demographic balance similar to that of early 1994. All the neighboring states say
that the refugees are an unacceptable burden and must be repatriated as soon as
possible, according to EO 13526 1.4c pressi reports.
In particular Zaire-'Which is under the heaviest refugee burden and had
close ties to the ousted Hutu regime—may eventually be tempted to support
an anti-RPF insurgency by the Hutus at least partly as a way of inducing
them to return home. Uganda's President Museveni supported the REEs^
insurgency in part to rid his country of unwanted Rwandan Tutsis. 3.5c

ALA 94-40021
EO 13526 3.5c

EO 13526 3.5c

DECLASSIFIED IN PART
PER E.O. 13526
 EO 13526 3.5c

"Dead are the dogs and the rats, making way for the cows and the
drum."
-Legend of the Tutsis' arrival in Rwanda, referring to symbols
of wealth and sovereignty
A Look at the Key Variables
Overall Trends. Since the ethnic civil war resumed on 6 April 1994, we calculate
from the admittedly incomplete and at times contradictory information available to us
that the population living within Rwanda has dropped to 5.3 million, or by about
30 percent,fromthe 7.7 million inhabitants estimated by the US Census Bureau on
1
1 April. This drop is the net effect of three main factors:

Flight by "new" refugees. According to EO 13526 1.4c

US Government agencies, some 2.2 million Rwandans have left the country
since April. Nearly all are ethnic Hutus who fled the Tutsi-dominated RPF as
it gained control and formed a new government Although an estimated
75,000 Tutsis left the country in April aind May, relief agencies report that at
least 60,000 of them have since returned.
Deaths. In June, we estimated that 500,000 Rwandans had died in the
fighdng-about three-quarters of them Tutsis killed in a campaign of genocide
2
orchestrated by_the_s.u.6!S5fluettUtjoustedregime. Based on information
available from! EO 13526 1.4c press reports, we calculate that since June
another 80,000 or so Rwandans have died; most appear to be Hums-victims
of disease in refugee camps and, to a lesser extent, of Tutsis avenging the
deaths of their kin.
Return of "old" refugees. Somewhat offsetting the demographic impact of
deaths and refugeeflight,around 60 percent or the 545,000 longtime
Rw.andan_TutsLrefuKeesresidingin neighboring states have repatriated.
EO 13526 1.4c ]200.000 Tutsis have returned from Burundi alone.
EO 13526 1.4c Ithcre has also been

iIntelligence Report ALA 9440002 (Confidential! 3.5c [of 23 June 1994.Rwanda: Establishing t
Demographic Baseline, evaluated changes in the country's population between 6 April and 1 June
1994, with a particular focus on the Tutsi minority. We estimated (hen that 125,000 Hutus and
375,000 Tutsis-about 60 percent of the 628,000 Tutsis believed to have been in Rwanda on
1 April 1994"had been killed and that another 418,000 Rwandans hadfledto neighboring states.
2
3.5c
In areportissued on 28 June 1994, the Special Rapporteur for Rwanda of the UN Commission on
Human Rights found on the basis of available evidence that "the term 'genocide* should henceforth be
used as regards the Tutsi." | 3.5c

This report was prepared by| 3 5c |Office of African and Latin American Antfyiit, with a contribution
- 1
fromj 3.5c ALA. Comments and queries are welcome and may be directed to the Chief, 3,5c
L.3.5.C- lALA.1 EO 13526 3.5c
 EO 13526 3.5c

large-scale movement from Uganda and smaller flows from Tanzania and
Zaire. These refugeesfledethnic clashes in Rwanda between 1959 and 1964,
as Hutus ousted Tutsis from their traditional dominance; they and ^heii
children form the core of the RPF's leadership and military forces. 3.5c

Likely Effects on Fertility and Mortality Rates

The massive demographic disruptions this year probably have reversed Rwanda's
progress in reducing fertility rates since the early 1980s. The US Bureau of the
Census says there was a declinefrom8.5 children per woman in 1983 to about 6.2
children in 1994, reflecting both increased use of contraception and arisein the
average age of marriage. | EO 13526 1.4c [however, the fighting,
genocide, and refugee flight destroyed most of the country's social infrastructure-
almost certainly including the family planning network, whose restoration
probably is not a high priority for the new RPFregime.In the Hutu refugee
camps, contraception is almost completely unavailable, and I EO 13526 1.4c
up to 90 percent of refugee women of childbearing age are pregnant; this
may also reflect_wjdespread prostitution and rape in the camps' unsettled
conditions. [ 3.5c ]
The mortality rate among Rwandan populations probably also has increased,
reflecting poor nutrition, illness, and other stresses associated with the mass
migrations, as well as the destruction of health care facilities. In addition, these
factors probably have boosted the rate of AIDS infection, which, according to the
Census Bureau, accounted for therisein the crude death rate increased from
almost 17 per 1,000 in 1985 to an estimated 20 or more per 1,000 this year.
3.5c

In combination, these demographic changes, according to our calculations, have

increased the proportion of Tutsis in Rwandafromaround 8 percent to 11 percent-
despite Hutu extremists' efforts last spring and summer to eliminate the group.
Various sources report that most of the Tutsi returnees and survivors of the massacres
in Rwanda are concentrating in a sort ofJITutsi;and" around Kigali and in the eastern
3
prefectures of Kibungo and Byumba. [ 3.5c
Tbe Ethnic Angle
Rwanda's new demographic balance reflects deliberate policy choices by the RPF
regime's leaders. L EO 13526 1.4c [RPF leaders have
encouraged therepatriationof longtime Tutsi refugeesfromneighboring states-the
constituency that has been the hardest core of the RPFs support-because of fear that
Tutsis were spread too thin within Rwanda. EO 13526 1.4c
the RPF is encouraging Tutsi repatriates to occupy the houses and"
other property _of Huturefugees,
f rT.._. c j
despite. i the
.
government's
.i«
public denunciatione of
j _ .
such

3
Until this year, according to Rwandan Government census data, the heaviest concentration of Tutsis
was in the four southwestern prefectures, where the group accounted for about M percent of (he
population. This was the lastregioncaptured by the RPF, and we believe these Tutsli suffered
particularly heavy losses. 3.5c
 EO 13526 3.5c

expropriations. The RPF probably views in a similar light the concentrated

resettlement of Tutsis around Kigali and in the east, which bolsters the minority's
ability to protect itself against future genocide attempts. [ 3.5c "'
The Hutu exodus appears to be a result of both political manipulation by leaders of
the ousted Hutu regime and the security concerns of Hutu individuals and
communities. Hutu government leaders who had orchestrated the massacre of Tutsis
encouraged the massive flight of Hutusfromthe country-some 460,000 to Tanzania
in April and more than 1 million to Zaire in July--in an apparent effort to deny
legitimacy to the RPF, various reports say. Since mid-July, according to a variety of
reporting, harsh crackdowns and Hutu fears of reprisals by RPF troops and Tutsi
vigilantes-as well as possible threatsfromradical Hutu militiamen-have driven at
least 80,000 into Tanzania, as well as smaller numbers who joined the refugees
4
already in Zaire. | 3.5c
UN agencies estimate that another 2 million Hutus are displaced within Rwanda, with
the largest concentration in the southwest, where they fled to a humanitarian safe
zone established during the French military deployment between July and September
1994. Like the refugees, these displaced persons fear RPF reprisals should they
return home, and aid workers report that they appear resigned to remain in internal
exile indefinitely.
EO 13526 1.4c _ _ jthe RPF has threatened to close down
camps sheltering some 800;000 displaced Hutus in the southwest because it
views the displaced persons camps as safehavens for radical Hutu militiamen.
Although UN pressure has led the RPF to back downfromthis threat for now,
we judge that even the rumor of an RPF move against the camps CQiUd_Djinic
this skittish population into a mass exodus to Zaiire and Burundi. [ 3.5c '

Victims of a Lesser Genocide

Rwanda's smallest ethnic group-the pygmoid Twa, marginalized hunters and
gatherers who made up only about 0.4 percent of the population in April-appears
to have suffered even greater losses in the fighting than the Tutsis and Hutus.
EO 13526 1.4c [speculates that as many as three-quarters of the Twa population
may have been murdered, and press reports indicate that Hutu refugees in Zaire
are preventing their Twa countrymenfromreceiving food aid. This undoubtedly
reflects Hutus" longstanding disdain for the Twa, who served Rwanda's traditional
^utsLQM3lQrcls_asjfourt jesters, spies, and assassins,! EO 13526 1.4c
EO 13526 1.4c

EO 13526 1.4c
 v ^ ^ i v»;

EO 13526 3.5c

Prospects and Implications

Trends Likely to Continue for Now... The RPF-dominated regime in Kigali has little
incentive to change its ethnically driven policies. Even after the RPF is satisfied that
all willing Rwandan Tutsis have taken advantage of their newrightto return, the
Front is not likely to encourage a large-scale repatriation of Hutus. Kigali says tens
of thousands of Hutus are guilty of war crimes--which, taking into consideration their
families, casts suspicions on hundreds of thousands of the refugees-and many Tutsis
undoubtedly welcome a chance to give Hutus a taste of exile.
• Vice President iCagame-the regime's apparent strongman-has puhlicly-said
/ j his-govenuTient could wait "50 years" to seek justice againstmasskillers and
/ settle the refugee issue; he says there is no need for ha^eufresoTving the
issue becausg^ftheinternational community's willingness to feed the
refugees. 3.5c

In any case, there are signs that many Hutus will remain unwilling to return to their
homes in Rwanda as long as the RPF controls the government Individual Hutus
probably will continue to fear for their security because of widespread reports of RPF
and Tutsi retribution, as evidenced by the fact that only a trickle have left refugee and
displaced persons camps. Hutu leaders probably will persist in fostering these fears-
continuing to use such tactics as physical threats and propaganda-in order to retain a
political base for a self-styled govemment-in-exile.

EO 13526 1.4c ^radical Hutu militias control the

J
largest camps LrTZaire and"TanzaniI7wfiichthey use for military training and
as bases for raids into Rwanda.
Hutu leaders and rank and file hope to eventually return in force to Rwanda to
oust the RPF, butl EO 13526 1.4c •military commanders
recognize that their troops will not be able to do so for some time. | 3.5c
...But Are Unsustainable in the Longer Run. Although the international community
is likely to continue providing enough food aid and other necessities to keep the Hutu
refugees alive, we doubt that so many angry, dispossessed people can be kept in
refugee camps indefinitely. Harsh conditions in the camps undoubtedly will lead
some to overcome their fear of the RPF-and their own Hutu leaders-to repatriate
spontaneously. I 3.5c
Moreover, host governments in the region will become increasingly insistent that the
Rwandans repatriate. The refugees represent an enormous strain on the limited
resources anafragileenvironments of all the host states, and their presence has
worsened chronic ethnic conflicts in Zaire and Burundi.
Kinshasa and Dar Es Salaam have both said they want the refugees gone as
soon as possible, according to press EO 13526 i 4c reports.
EO 13526 1.4c JBurundi's Tutsi military commanders have
identified the Rwandan Hutu refugees there as the greatest security threat to
the coalition government in Bujumbura.

P
 EO 13526 3.5c

The longer this huge refugee population burdens Rwanda's neighbors, the
greater the chance in our view that at least one of them-particularly Zaire,
which has received the largest group and had closetiesto the ousted Hutu
regime-would support an anti-RPF insurgency at least partly as a way to send
the refugees home. Uganda's President Museveni supported the RPF's
insurgency in part toridhis country of unwanted Rwandan Tutsis. I 3.5c

LTVVI

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

 EQJ352SJL5S I
ANNEX 1

Rwanda: Tne Demographic Score Card, 1 ApriM October 1994

(Thousands)
Total Hutu Tutsi Twa

Population on 1 April 94
Numbers 7,657 6,998 628 31
Percentage 100.0% 91.4% 8.2% 0.4%

Less:
Deaths 585 195 15
Deaths through 6/94 510 125 10
Refugee deaths since 7/94 65 60 5
RPF revenge killings 10 10 0

Outflows of "New Refugees" 2,155 2,135 5

to: Tanzania 542 537 0
Zaire 1,332 1,317 5
Burundi 270 270 0
Uganda 11 11 0

Plus:
Return of "Old" Refugees 339 0 339 0
from: Burundi 200 0 200 0
Uganda 100 0 100 0
Tanzania 19 0 19 0
Zaire 20 0 20 0

Population on 1 October 94
Numbers 5,256 4,668 577 11
Percentage 100.0% 88.8% 11.0% 0.2%

Memorandum Items:
-Internally displaced 2,000 0
•-"Old" Refugees In Other Countries 0 206
-Burundi 0 45
-Uganda 0 100
-Tanzania 0 31
-Zaire 0 30

EO 13526 3.5c
ANNEX 2

Changes in Population Inside Rwanda

1 April -1 October 1994

(in Millions)

10
Twa

Hutu

8 - TutBl

6 -

4 -

2 -

I
1 April 94 1 Octob«r94

EO 13526 3.5c I
Rwandan Population Movements, April-October 1994

ZAIRE UGANDA
148,000 new refugees.
Total; 10,5000 "new" refugees;
Total: 13 million "new" refugees; 100,000 "old" refugees
30,000 "old" refugees

850,000 new refugees.

(94,000 new refugees. |

Total: 542,000 "new"

refugees; 31,000 "old"
ZAIRE ]refugees
Kamonyola
^ 0 0 0 new refugees.
PREPARED 23 OCTOBER M
EO 13526 3.5c

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to

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

REB7D63B.FIN Page 1 of 1

MSMail

DATE-TIME 02 November 94 09:13

FROM Clarke, Richard A.
CLASSIFICATION -CONriDCNTIAL
SUBJECT Subject: How I spent my day in New York [CONriDENTIAL] •
TO Emery, Mary C.
Wolin, Neal S.
CARBON COPY Atkin, Timothy J.
Beers, Rand R.
Brown, Dallas
Clarke, Richard A.
Darragh, Sean J.
Lindsey, Wanda
Norman, Marcia G.
Rice, Susan E.
Richardson, Craig
Rossin, Larry
Roundtree, Beverly J.
Schwartz, Eric P.
Simon, Steven N.
TEXT BODY
FOR BERGER

Readout of meetings with Kofi Annan et al on Tuesday.

1. On Haiti: Kofi can;t get BBG to focus on the Schroeder appointment while
BBG is travelling. He will return around 11 November. Suggest we recommend
to JCS getting Schroeder over here as a TDY advisor to Shali.

They are thinking of a hand over date in early February. USACOM is also
recommending that date to Shali.

They like the idea of an all day conference on the US/UN transition, which
we would host on or about the 14th.

2. On Somlia: They are pleased with the work being done by the three US
planners. The Council should pass the withdrawal resolution this week. They
NEED a decision soon on the US role in the withdrawal.

3. On Rwanda: I'll submit a detailed report to Tony. Bottom line: they

will propose several options to the Council, while we and they together
recruit someone to send a highly capable battalion plus into the Zaire area

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY PERETK

 9202
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
WASHINGTON. D C. 20506

November 16, 19 94

INFORMATION

MEMORANDUM FOR ANTHONY LAKE

THROUGH: RICHARD CLPM^^I ^ ^ — ^ ^ ^

FROM: TIMOTHY J. ATKIN

SUBJECT: B r i e f i n g by Former UNAMIR Commander

Canadian General Romeo D a l l a i r e , Commander o f UNAMIR f o r c e s u n t i l

l a s t month, gave a b r i e f i n g yesterday a t t h e Canadian Embassy.
He discussed p o t e n t i a l UN reforms and t h e f u t u r e o f Rwanda.

Proposed UN Reforms

1. E s t a b l i s h a S e c r e t a r y General's contingency fund f o r r a p i d

f u n d i n g and procurement i n c r i s e s and r e f o r m t h e a d m i n i s t r a t i v e
and l o g i s t i c s system t o be able t o respond t o emergencies.

2. Develop a course t o t r a i n a m u l t i - d i s c i p l i n a r y s e n i o r c r i s i s
management s t a f f ( f o r c e commanders, c h i e f s - o f - s t a f f , e t c ) . He
p r o j e c t s t h a t t h e r e w i l l be a need t o i n t e g r a t e peacekeeping and
humanitarian a s s i s t a n c e f u n c t i o n s i n almost a l l f u t u r e UN
missions.

3. E s t a b l i s h a standby, emergency response m i l i t a r y f o r c e (U.S.

should NOT/NOT be a p a r t o f t h i s f o r c e ) w i t h a d e p l o y a b l e HQ
u n i t . He b e l i e v e s t h e superpowers should n o t be a p a r t o f t h i s
f o r c e but t h e i r i n v o l v e m e n t would be a f i n a l threat/hammer should
i t be necessary.

4. Improve i n f o r m a t i o n and i n t e l l i g e n c e c a p a b i l i t i e s . He
r e l a y e d he r e c e i v e d v i r t u a l l y none from t h e UN, i n any c a p a c i t y ,
d u r i n g h i s o p e r a t i o n s i n Rwanda.

5. Have an u m b r e l l a h u m a n i t a r i a n agency c o o r d i n a t e NGOs and

military relief capabilities. He t a l k e d o f t h e CNN f a c t o r i n
Goma l e a d i n g t o a deluge o f NGO a c t i v i t y u l t i m a t e l y becoming a
resource c e n t e r f o r ex-government o f f i c i a l s . Meanwhile, o t h e r
camps were n e g l e c t e d l e a d i n g t o worse c o n d i t i o n s i n camps i n s i d e
Rv/anda . Some medical m i l i t a r y support e f f o r t s were shunned by
NGOs t o a v o i d a s s o c i a t i o n .

LINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

6. Develop an i n t e r n a t i o n a l media agency and be p r o a c t i v e i n t h e
propaganda war. He c r e d i t s t h e r a d i o propaganda e f f o r t by t h e
Hutus as t h e s i n g l e l a r g e s t c o n t r i b u t o r t o t h e r e s u l t i n g
genocide. These c o u n t r i e s l i v e by t h e r a d i o and t h e message was
never countered. The Hutus c o n t i n u e t o e f f e c t i v e l y c o n t r o l a l l
communications w i t h t h e i r r a d i o broadcasts.

7. Give and use t h e a u t h o r i t y and c a p a b i l i t y t o conduct

" o f f e n s i v e " o r d e t e r r e n t m i l i t a r y o p e r a t i o n s . He noted t h i s can
be done under Chapter V I w i t h p r o p e r l y c o n s t r u c t e d r u l e s o f
engagement. Chapter V I I should be reserved f o r a c t i o n a g a i n s t an
aggressor. As an example o f a d e t e r r e n t a c t i o n , he b e l i e v e s
f o r c i b l y d e s t r o y i n g t h e r a d i o s t a t i o n s p r o p a g a t i n g messages o f
genocide a t t h e b e g i n n i n g would have helped d r a m a t i c a l l y .

[Items 1, 4, 5 and 6 a r e being addressed, w i t h some v a r i a t i o n ,

through PDD 25 i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . ]

Rwanda's Future

General D a l l a i r e i s s t i l l o p t i m i s t i c a c o a l i t i o n government i s
p o s s i b l e but o n l y AFTER l e a d e r s o f t h e genocide begin t o end up
in j a i l .

He's concerned t h a t , w o r s t case s c e n a r i o , t h e GOR c o u l d shut i t s

borders a t some p o i n t , l o c k i n g o u t refugees who have n o t
r e t u r n e d , and then t h e r e would be a w a i t i n g game t o see when
Hutus attempt t o r e t a k e a l l o r p a r t o f Rwanda.

He argued s t r o n g l y t h a t t h e GOR needs t h e f i n a n c i a l resources t o

f u n c t i o n as a government. P r o p o r t i o n a t e l y , t o o much a i d i s going
o u t s i d e t h e c o u n t r y , and t h i s i s causing deep resentment.

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY
 CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCQPY

Co»-fJ

^tx^o^Jf ^ / NAj -f M ^ r t gs^C-t LrtTSC- - Z^^-

jQIiriDDHTIAE 9732
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
WASHINGTON. D C. 20506

December 9, 1994

INFORMATION

MEMORANDUM FOR ANTHONY LAKE

THROUGH: RICH^D CLARKE

DONALD STEINBERG "V*-

FROM: SUSAN^TCE/TIMOT^J" J. ATKIN

SUBJECT: Update on t h e S i t u a t i o n i n Rwanda and B r i e f i n g f o r

Your Meeting w i t h Rwandan Vice P r e s i d e n t and
Defense M i n i s t e r Paul Kagame

SITUATION UPDATE:

Prime M i n i s t e r Twagiramungu v i s i t e d Washington l a s t week f o r

World Bank meetings. He a l s o met w i t h U/S T a r n o f f , A/S Moose,
A/S Bennet, AID A d m i n i s t r a t o r Atwood, and Don S t e i n b e r g . The GOR
has e s t a b l i s h e d a human r i g h t s d i v i s i o n i n t h e J u s t i c e o f
M i n i s t r y and Twagiramungu i n d i c a t e d a p o i n t person would be named
s h o r t l y t o head t h i s d i v i s i o n . Twagiramungu a l s o s a i d t h e GOR
would c o o p e r a t e w i t h t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l t r i b u n a l , g i v e f r e e access
t o UNAMIR and t h e human r i g h t s m o n i t o r s , and g r a n t b r o a d c a s t
a u t h o r i t y t o UNAMIR r a d i o .

I n p r i v a t e c o n v e r s a t i o n s w i t h DAS B u s h n e l l , she s a i d Twagiramungu

t a l k e d o f H u t u / T u t s i t e n s i o n s w i t h i n t h e GOR and t h e need f o r a
more genuine i n c l u s i o n o f Hutus i n d e c i s i o n making and power
sharing.

UNITED NATIONS ACTIONS

Last week t h e UN S e c u r i t y C o u n c i l extended UNAMIR's mandate Ja*/

t h r o u g h June 9, 1995. The r e s o l u t i o n i n c l u d e d two "new" t a s k s
which, i n f a c t , UNAMIR has been c o n d u c t i n g f o r some months: (1)
p r o v i s i o n o f s e c u r i t y f o r war crimes i n v e s t i g a t o r s and human
r i g h t s m o n i t o r s ; and, (2) a s s i s t a n c e i n e s t a b l i s h i n g and t r a i n i n g
a new, i n t e g r a t e d n a t i o n a l p o l i c e f o r c e .

The S e c u r i t y C o u n c i l a l s o v o t e d p o s i t i v e l y on a P r e s i d e n t i a l
Statement r e q u e s t i n g more i n f o r m a t i o n from t h e S e c r e t a r y General
on r e f u g e e camp s e c u r i t y . The focus o f camp s e c u r i t y would be t o
c r e a t e an environment f r o m which refugees c o u l d r e p a t r i a t e .

DECLASSIFIED
PER E.0.13526
CONFIDENTIAL P
D e c l a s s i f y on: I^JON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY
CQMFIITlffNTIiAIp

GOR EFFORTS

Kagame t o l d UNHCR t h e RPA w i l l not use c o e r c i o n t o c l o s e IDP

camps as l o n g as t h e UN works toward camp c l o s u r e . Recent
r e p o r t s suggest t h e GOR i s now working w i t h t h e UN t o c o o r d i n a t e
and encourage t h e c l o s u r e o f these camps.

While t h e RPA has g r a n t e d UNAMIR/UNHRC m o n i t o r s access i n most

areas, t h e r e are s t i l l l o c a l l e v e l c o n f r o n t a t i o n s from t i m e t o
time.

Human R i g h t s Watch notes t h a t w h i l e p r i s o n c o n d i t i o n s i n Rwanda

are g r i m , t h e r e i s no evidence t h a t d e t a i n e e s are b e i n g t o r t u r e d
o r abused.

Embassy K i g a l i p o i n t s o u t t h a t t h e f i r s t group o f ex-FAR o f f i c e r s

t o have i n d o c t r i n a t i o n and p o l i t i c a l t r a i n i n g i s scheduled t o be
i n t e g r a t e d i n t o t h e RPA t h i s month. There i s a l s o a GOR/UNICEF
i n i t i a t i v e t o d e m o b i l i z e " c h i l d " s o l d i e r s and e n r o l l them i n
schools.

MEETING WITH VICE PRESIDENT KAGAME

On Tuesday, December 13, you w i l l meet w i t h Rwandan V i c e

P r e s i d e n t and Defense M i n i s t e r Paul Kagame a t 2:00 p.m. i n your
office. The Rwandan d e l e g a t i o n , e s c o r t e d by Vince Kern from OSD,
w i l l i n c l u d e Kagame and two a d v i s o r s . Attendees from t h e NSC
w i l l i n c l u d e Nancy Soderberg, Richard C l a r k e , Donald S t e i n b e r g
and Susan Rice. T a l k i n g p o i n t s are summarized a t Tab I and a
t a b l e o f USG support f o r Rwanda i s a t Tab I I .

Your goal during t h i s meeting i s t o obtain a pledge from

V i c e P r e s i d e n t Kagame t o move forward on s e v e r a l f r o n t s while
pledging U.S. support (as i n d i c a t e d i n b r a c k e t s ) :

1. Name a point person t o head human r i g h t s d i v i s i o n of Ministry

of J u s t i c e and allow UNAMIR/UNCHR monitors complete and unimpeded
access i n s i d e Rwanda. [$2.5M t o the World Bank t o c l e a r a r r e a r s ,
which would produce approximately $50M for governance. Continued
support of n u t r i t i o n , water, seed and s h e l t e r programs -- s e v e r a l
million.]

2. Authorize UNAMIR radio t o operate, cooperate with the

I n t e r n a t i o n a l Tribunal, e s t a b l i s h more e f f e c t i v e d i s c i p l i n e among
RPF troops and mechanisms for dealing with land d i s p u t e s .
[ P r o v i s i o n of equipment, t e c h n i c a l s e r v i c e s and r e b u i l d i n g of
i n f r a s t r u c t u r e for the M i n i s t r y of J u s t i c e . Approximately $600K.]

3. P e r s o n a l l y advocate and i n s t i l l t h r o u g h o u t a l l elements o f

t h e government t h e fundamental p r i n c i p l e o f c i v i l i a n c o n t r o l o f

""••""^CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

COMriDEHTIAIi

the m i l i t a r y . [ P r o v i s i o n of t e c h n i c a l m i l i t a r y a s s i s t a n c e , i . e . a
demining program.]

4. Continue e f f o r t s t o r e i n t e g r a t e moderate Hutus i n t o the

m i l i t a r y and government and work with the UN t o r e l o c a t e ^ - S
i n t e r n a l l y displaced Rwandans. [ P r o v i s i o n of equipment, t e c h n i c a l
s e r v i c e s and r e b u i l d i n g of i n f r a s t r u c t u r e for the M i n i s t r y of
A g r i c u l t u r e , Health, Finance, and Plans/Environment.
Approximately $50OK per m i n i s t r y . ]

5. Encourage and respect the r i g h t s of refugees r e p a t r i a t i n g t o

Rwanda. [ P r o v i s i o n of community based support for n u t r i t i o n ,
water, s h e l t e r and community s e r v i c e s -- r e b u i l d i n g of schools
and c l i n i c s w i t h i n communities t o which refugees r e t u r n . Unable
to f i g u r e d o l l a r amount r i g h t now but e a s i l y w i l l be i n t h e
millions.]

VICE PRESIDENT KAGAME'S AGENDA

There i s p o t e n t i a l f o r Kagame t o seek an end t o t h e UN ban on

e x p o r t i n g arms and m i l i t a r y equipment t o Rwanda. He w i l l l i k e l y
argue t h a t c o n t i n u e d s u p p o r t o f t h e ban i n d i c a t e s t h e U.S.
s u p p o r t s t h e Hutus i n Z a i r e .

I F ASKED: Rwanda has s u f f e r e d enough from war and more arms

are c e r t a i n l y not the answer. The proper focus should be on
r e c o n c i l i a t i o n with moderates and r e h a b i l i t a t i o n of government
services.

W h i l e c u r r e n t law p r o h i b i t s t h e U.S. from p r o v i d i n g m i l i t a r y

a s s i s t a n c e t o Rwanda t h i s year, we c o u l d c o n s i d e r f u t u r e a i d
focused on f o s t e r i n g good c i v i l / m i l i t a r y r e l a t i o n s ( i . e . a
demining program).

Kagame i s l i k e l y t o r e q u e s t a meeting w i t h V i c e P r e s i d e n t Gore as

a t e s t o f the p o l i t i c a l waters. P r e s i d e n t Bizimungu met w i t h you
and d i d n o t meet w i t h t h e P r e s i d e n t d u r i n g h i s v i s i t i n October.

I F ASKED: Not p o s s i b l e i n the Vice President's schedule

during a t t h i s time.

Kagame hopes t o generate p o s i t i v e media coverage o f h i s t r i p ,

e x p l a i n i n g t h a t t h e GOR i s d i s c o u r a g i n g r e t r i b u t i o n f o r r e c e n t
genocide and Rwanda i s open t o f o r e i g n business.

Attachments
Tab I T a l k i n g P o i n t s
Tab I I U.S. A s s i s t a n c e t o Rwanda Chart

CONFIDENTIAL
CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY
 Meeting with Rwandan Vice President Kagame
December 13, 1994
2:00 p.m.

SHARED GOALS:

• I had t h e p l e a s u r e o f meeting w i t h P r e s i d e n t Bizimungu when he

came t o Washington i n October.

• I t i s c l e a r from my c o n v e r s a t i o n w i t h him t h a t our governments

share t h e same o b j e c t i v e s o f peace and r e c o n c i l i a t i o n f o r
Rwanda.

• I t i s a l s o c l e a r t h a t many c h a l l e n g e s c o n f r o n t us: e n s u r i n g
a c c o u n t a b i l i t y f o r t h e genccide and o t h e r a t r o c i t i e s , c r e a t i n g
a sense of s e c u r i t y i n and around Rwanda, c r e a t i n g c o n d i t i o n s
f a v o r a b l e f o r refugee r e t u r n , e s t a b l i s h i n g a p o l i t i c a l
d i a l o g u e , and a s s u r i n g r e p r e s e n t a t i v e government.

U.S. ASSISTANCE TO RWANDA:

• We are committed t o a s s i s t i n g you w i t h each o f these

challenges.

• As you know, we have i d e n t i f i e d $2.5M t o pay o f f your

government's World Bank a r r e a r s . Through an i n f o r m a l
" f r i e n d s " group we have o r g a n i z e d , we a r e encouraging and
c o o r d i n a t i n g o t h e r donor's a s s i s t a n c e .

• I n a d d i t i o n t o a tremendous amount o f work t h r o u g h

m u l t i l a t e r a l i n s t i t u t i o n s and w i t h o t h e r donors, we are
p l a n n i n g how t o most e x p e d i t i o u s l y implement a b i l a t e r a l
development a s s i s t a n c e package o f $9M. This package w i l l h e l p
i n t h e r e f u r b i s h i n g o f key m i n i s t r i e s , i n c l u d i n g equipment,
t e c h n i c a l s e r v i c e s and t h e r e b u i l d i n g o f b a s i c i n f r a s t r u c t u r e .

• Much of t h e money t h e U.S. has spent INSIDE Rwanda s i n c e t h e

war ( t e n s o f m i l l i o n s ) has gone t o meet b a s i c human needs as
f o o d , water and s h e l t e r , i n a d d i t i o n t o seeds and t o o l s f o r
your people t o s u s t a i n themselves. As more people l e a v e
d i s p l a c e d and refugee camps, our a s s i s t a n c e w i l l s h i f t t o
h e l p i n g them redevelop t h e ^ r communities (community b u i l d i n g s
and s e r v i c e s ) .

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

• Our a s s i s t a n c e people on t h e ground i n Rwanda are w o r k i n g
c l o s e l y w i t h your M i n i s t r y o f J u s t i c e t o r e - e s t a b l i s h your
domestic j u d i c i a l system.

NEXT STEPS FOR THE GOR

• Our a b i l i t y t o h e l p Rwanda meet i t s c h a l l e n g e s i s l i m i t e d ;

yours i s more i m p o r t a n t and, a c c o r d i n g l y , e x p e c t a t i o n s are
high.

• I t i s necessary t o c r e a t e a c l i m a t e o f s e c u r i t y and r e s p e c t
f o r t h e r u l e o f law i n s i d e Rwanda. This i n c l u d e s naming a
p o i n t person as t h e head o f t h e human r i g h t s d i v i s i o n i n t h e
M i n i s t r y o f J u s t i c e , f i n d i n g e f f e c t i v e mechanisms t o r e s o l v e
p r o p e r t y d i s p u t e s , and m a i n t a i n i n g d i s c i p l i n e among your
troops.

• I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o i n s t i l l t h r o u g h o u t a l l elements o f t h e
government t h e fundamental p r i n c i p l e o f c i v i l i a n c o n t r o l o f
the m i l i t a r y . You are i n a unique p o s i t i o n t o see t h a t t h i s
message i s heard and f o l l o w e d .

• We welcome c o n t i n u e d c o o p e r a t i o n between your government and

t h e UN t o develop a coherent p l a n f o r t h e v o l u n t a r y r e t u r n o f
d i s p l a c e d people from i n t e r n a l camps. F o r c i b l e c l o s u r e of t h e
camps and t h e a s s o c i a t e d v i o l e n c e n e g a t i v e l y a f f e c t s
r e c o n c i l i a t i o n e f f o r t s and s u p p o r t from t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l
community. P a r t of communicating these e f f o r t s c o u l d be t h e
use o f UNAMIR r a d i o ; you need t o a u t h o r i z e i t s broadcasts and
i d e n t i f y a frequency immediately.

• The unimpeded access of UNAMIR and human r i g h t s m o n i t o r s i s

v i t a l l y i m p o r t a n t t o t h e r e c o n c i l i a t i o n process and t h e
c o n t i n u e d s u p p o r t of t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l community as w e l l .

AREAS OF COOPERATION:

• As we work t o g e t h e r on t h e c h a l l e n g e s f a c i n g your government

we must a l s o d e a l w i t h t h e v e r y r e a l problem of c o n t i n u i n g
v i o l e n c e and i n t i m i d a t i o n i n t h e r e f u g e e camps o u t s i d e Rwanda.

• We agree some a c t i o n must be t a k e n and are d i s c u s s i n g t h e

i s s u e a t l e n g t h w i t h t h e UN and t h e Rwanda o p e r a t i o n a l s u p p o r t
group. We hope t o have a UN s t r a t e g y soon, one t h a t s u p p o r t s
repatriation.

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

We urge continued cooperation w i t h your neighbors and strong
support f o r convening a r e g i o n a l refugee conference t o address
camp s e c u r i t y and other issues.

We are also committed t o ensuring t h a t those responsible f o r

the genocide are brought t o j u s t i c e and welcome your
government's cooperation w i t h the I n t e r n a t i o n a l T r i b u n a l . We
have committed $1M t o help speed up the t r i b u n a l e f f o r t s and
w i l l have 18 USG experts on the ground i n Rwanda very soon.

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

OOMFIDBHTIMy

Action Items
APNSA T r i p To Rwanda Dec 94

1. Ensure prompt d e l i v e r y o f $2.5M t o c l e a r World Bank a r r e a r s

and urge r a p i d o b l i g a t i o n o f $50M i n World Bank r e c o n s t r u c t i o n
funds;

2. O b l i g a t e funds t o s u p p o r t Rwandan Government, i n c l u d i n g help

f o r N a t i o n a l Assembly, water supply, e l e c t r i c i t y , demining
education;

3. Continue t o urge r e c o n c i l i a t i o n and i n t e g r a t i o n between

Government and moderate ex-government m i n i s t e r s (who have
standing w i t h refugees);

4. Continue U.S. s u p p o r t f o r I n t e r n a t i o n a l War Crimes T r i b u n a l ,

urge appointment o f o t h e r j u s t i c e s ;

5. Ensure deployment o f 14 7 UN Human R i g h t s M o n i t o r s ;

6. Continue c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f o p t i o n s f o r i m p r o v i n g s e c u r i t y i n
refugee camps, i n c l u d i n g w o r k i n g more c l o s e l y w i t h Z a i r e and
Tanzania, and p o s s i b l y p r o v i d e f o r e i g n t r a i n e r s f o r l o c a l
gendarmerie; e x p l o r e approach t o Z a i r e w i t h , t h r o u g h o r supported
by I s r a e l i s ;

7. Encourage UN and Rwandan government e f f o r t s t o p r o v i d e f o r

s e c u r i t y f o r d i s p l a c e d persons r e t u r n i n g t o t h e i r v i l l a g e s ;

8. Continue t o ensure human r i g h t s observers have f r e e access

country-wide,•

9. F i n d more ways t o p u b l i c i z e r e c o n c i l i a t i o n p r o g r e s s , i n camps

and i n Washington;. UNAMIR r a d i o ;

10. Continue t o press government t o p r o v i d e f o r s a f e r e t u r n and

p r o t e c t r i g h t s o f refugees;

11. S t a t u s o f Mr. Gacombitsi.

DECLASSIFIED
PER E.0.13526

cotTFiDBNTiAL1 TNTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL- 0583
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
WASHINGTON. D.C. 20506

January 29, 1995

ACTION

MEMORANDUM FOR ANTHONY LAKE

THROUGH: RICHARD CLARKg/Aiy

^ STEINBERG ' > r — ^

FROM: TIMOTHY J. A T K I N / S U S A N RICE

SUBJECT: Rwanda Update

UN Report on Camp S e c u r i t y

The S e c r e t a r y General r e l e a s e d h i s Second Report on S e c u r i t y i n

the Rwandan Refugee Camps January 27, 1995. I n c o n s u l t a t i o n w i t h
Mrs. Ogata, t h e S e c r e t a r y General decided t h e q u i c k e s t way t o
improve camp s e c u r i t y would be f o r UNHCR t o make a p p r o p r i a t e
arrangements w i t h Z a i r e .

The r e p o r t notes i t has t r a d i t i o n a l l y been host c o u n t r y

r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t o provide s e c u r i t y f o r refugees. On January 27,
UNHCR and Z a i r i a n government r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s s i g n e d a s e c u r i t y
agreement. The agreement covers f i v e months w i t h t h e o p t i o n f o r
t h r e e month renewals u n t i l December 1995. UNHCR w i l l pay
s o l d i e r s a s a l a r y complement and p r o v i d e u n i f o r m s and equipment
at an e s t i m a t e d c o s t o f $13M ( r a i s e d by v o l u n t a r y d o n a t i o n ) .
UNHCR w i l l a l s o e s t a b l i s h a l i a i s o n group t o p r o v i d e t r a i n i n g and
l o g i s t i c a l s u p p o r t . The p a c t c a l l s f o r 1500 Z a i r i a n t r o o p s t o :

• m a i n t a i n law and o r d e r i n t h e camps;

• p r e v e n t i n t i m i d a t i o n o f refugees who wish t o r e t u r n home and

e s c o r t r e t u r n i n g refugees as f a r as t h e Rwandan b o r d e r ; and,

• p r o t e c t h u m a n i t a r i a n agency i n s t a l l a t i o n s and p e r s o n n e l .

UNHCR i s r e l y i n g on USG b a c k i n g f o r and f i n a n c i a l s u p p o r t o f t h i s

p r o p o s a l . I t would be h e l p f u l , a t an Ad Hoc l e v e l , t o e s t a b l i s h
t h e l e v e l o f USG a s s i s t a n c e .

The S e c r e t a r y General r u l e d o u t peacekeeping, c o n t r a c t e d t r a i n i n g

and m o n i t o r s , and i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i c e m o n i t o r s / m i l i t a r y
o b s e r v e r s because o f a l a c k o f c o n t r i b u t i n g c o u n t r i e s and/or '
costs.

C ON FI DENXmL CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY PERRO13526

D e c l a s s i f y on: OADR
COMF1DENTIAL mmm
Refugee R e p a t r i a t i o n and the Volcanoes

The l i k e l i h o o d o f a v o l c a n i c e r u p t i o n near Goma p r o v i d e s an

o p p o r t u n i t y t o press r e f u g e e r e p a t r i a t i o n . The p r e s e n t l e v e l o f
a c t i v i t y seen i n one volcano has been experienced f i v e t i m e s i n
the l a s t 10 y e a r s ; t h e volcano has e r u p t e d each t i m e .

Our new Rwanda c o o r d i n a t o r , Ambassador Townsend Freidman, met

l a s t week w i t h Mrs. Ogata. UNHCR, a c u t e l y aware o f t h e p o t e n t i a l
danger, has stepped up m o n i t o r i n g o f the volcanoes' a c t i v i t i e s
and i s d r a w i n g up e v a c u a t i o n c o n t i n g e n c y p l a n s . A t the' same
t i m e , UNHCR i s e x p l o r i n g t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f moving t h e camps 30
m i l e s n o r t h i n Z a i r e . Friedman urged UNHCR t o use t h e v o l c a n o
t h r e a t t o encourage r e p a t r i a t i o n . While he found some
r e c e p t i v i t y among m i d - l e v e l UNHCR o f f i c i a l s , t h e r e seems t o be
l i t t l e enthusiasm a t h i g h l e v e l s f o r induced r e p a t r i a t i o n .

We c o n t i n u e t o s t r e s s t o Friedman the importance o f r e p a t r i a t i o n

as opposed t o camp r e l o c a t i o n . He and o t h e r s i n S t a t e are
focused on t h e p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t the i n t e r n a t i o n a l community w i l l
be c u l p a b l e i f the volcano e r u p t s and masses o f Rwandans and
r e l i e f workers are k i l l e d . Thus, S t a t e i s more concerned w i t h
moving t h e refugees away from Goma i n g e n e r a l r a t h e r t h a n back
i n t o Rwanda i n p a r t i c u l a r .

S t a t e i s d r a f t i n g an o p t i o n s paper f o r c o n s i d e r a t i o n b y t h e Ad
Hoc Group. The bureaucracy needs a s t r o n g push on t h i s one. I f
you approve an Ad Hoc Meeting, we w i l l add t h i s t o t h e agenda.

UNAMIR

The E t h i o p i a n s have i n d i c a t e d t h e y may p u l l t h e i r b a t t a l i o n out

of UNAMIR. They are f r u s t r a t e d w i t h the absence o f v i s i o n and
d i r e c t i o n f o r UNAMIR (measured i n p a r t by a l a c k o f r e f u g e e s
r e t u r n i n g ) , and w i t h slow payment by the UN. We have p r e s s e d the
UN and t h e U/SYG Annan has p e r s o n a l l y overseen payment t o t h e
E t h i o p i a n s . We and the UN are s t r e s s i n g t o the E t h i o p i a n s t h e
importance o f t h e i r p a r t i c i p a t i o n and s t r o n g l y u r g i n g t r o o p
r o t a t i o n i n mid-February r a t h e r than w i t h d r a w a l .

I n t e r n a t i o n a l War Crimes Tribunal

J u s t i c e Goldstone has a f o u r member team i n K i g a l i t o f i n a l i z e

arrangements. We a n t i c i p a t e the permanent seat t o be up and
r u n n i n g around the end o f February i n Arusha w i t h a s m a l l
contingent i n K i g a l i . The USG has a l r e a d y o r d e r e d computer
equipment f o r the t r i b u n a l h e a d q u a r t e r s .

»,iD»,TiA£LINT0N LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

co r E
 ^NFTHTMTIYJ

To h e l p o f f s e t USG agency resource demands o f t h e Rwandan

t r i b u n a l , S t a t e has been p r e s s i n g t h e UN t o reimburse t h e U.S.
f o r some Yugoslav t r i b u n a l d e t a i l e e s and b e l i e v e s we are c l o s e t o
s e c u r i n g t h a t commitment. A t t h i s p o i n t DOJ and FBI have
r e s i s t e d p r o v i d i n g any i n v e s t i g a t o r s f o r t h e Rwandan T r i b u n a l .
I f t h e t r i b u n a l i s t o b e g i n o p e r a t i n g n e x t month we need t o
i d e n t i f y i n v e s t i g a t o r s q u i c k l y . I t would be p r o b l e m a t i c i f t h e
USG were seen as l e s s committed t o i n v e s t i g a t i n g a t r o c i t i e s i n an
A f r i c a n c o u n t r y than i n t h e former Y u g o s l a v i a . State believes a
c a l l by you t o A t t o r n e y General Reno i s necessary t o achieve
DOJ/FBI s u p p o r t . Proposed t a l k i n g p o i n t s a r e a t Tab I .

AID Efforts

AID i n d i c a t e s t h e K i g a l i m i s s i o n w i l l be o p e r a t i n g t h i s week and

s h o u l d a c c e l e r a t e t h e i r e f f o r t s . AID has been r e l u c t a n t t o
t a c k l e t h e most c r i t i c a l need i n Rwanda's j u s t i c e system:

• f u n d i n g f o r e i g n j u r i s t s t o a d j u d i c a t e c r i m i n a l cases; and,

• t e c h n i c a l a s s i s t a n c e t o t h e N a t i o n a l Commission charged w i t h
making a d m i n i s t r a t i v e d e t e r m i n a t i o n s about t h e a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s
of d e t a i n i n g t h e 10,000+ c r i m i n a l s i n overcrowded p r i s o n s .

AID b e l i e v e s U.S. a s s i s t a n c e i n r e s o l v i n g c r i m i n a l cases i s

p r o b l e m a t i c and c o u l d be a l o s e - l o s e p r o p o s i t i o n . I f t h e
c r i t e r i a f o r r e l e a s e a r e i n t e r p r e t e d t o o s t r i n g e n t l y we c o u l d be
blamed f o r s t a l l i n g r e c o n c i l i a t i o n , and i f those r e l e a s e d a r e
p u b l i c i z e d as l e g i t i m a t e c r i m i n a l s we c o u l d be blamed f o r
w a t e r i n g down t h e j u s t i c e system.

Furthermore, AID b e l i e v e s t h e r e may be a l e g i s l a t i v e p r o h i b i t i o n

on h e l p i n g t h e N a t i o n a l Commission ( i f i t ' s deemed as law
enforcement a s s i s t a n c e ) . I f so, we c o u l d use a l e g i s l a t i v e
e x c e p t i o n o r p r e s i d e n t i a l waiver t o p r o v i d e t h e a s s i s t a n c e .

The d e c i s i o n r e g a r d i n g a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s o f USG support f o r these

elements o f Rwanda's j u d i c i a l program i s r e p o r t e d l y w i t h B r i a n
Atwood and may need t o be d i s c u s s e d a t an Ad Hoc meeting.

M i l i t a r y Equipment and T r a i n i n g

S t a t e and DOD i n d i c a t e d t h e y a r e moving f o r w a r d on p r o v i d i n g some

i n i t i a l IMET t r a i n i n g i n FY95.

DOD has proposed r e d r a f t i n g t h e UNSC arms embargo t o a u t h o r i z e

t h e p r o v i s i o n o f n o n - l e t h a l support f o r t h e Rwandan m i l i t a r y
(communications and l o g i s t i c s equipment). S t a t e i s d r a f t i n g an
i s s u e s paper. This w i l l need t o be r e s o l v e d a t t h e Ad Hoc l e v e l .

-eONriDENTTAy LINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

• GOUrIDENTIAL 4

I n t e l l i g e n c e i n d i c a t e s around a dozen APCs m i s s i n g from Z a i r i a n

c o n t a i n m e n t areas a r e l i k e l y i n ex-FAR c o n t r o l . S t a t e has moved
s l o w l y t o have t h e UN press Z a i r e t o c o n t r o l t h e v e h i c l e s , r e t u r n
them t o Rwanda o r d e s t r o y them ( w i t h GOR a p p r o v a l ) . S t a t e i s
d e v e l o p i n g a r e v i e w o f t h e o p t i o n s and t h e impact o f t h e arms
embargo and i n t e r n a t i o n a l law.

The DATT i n K i g a l i i s scheduled t o d e p a r t n e x t month and no

replacement i s i d e n t i f i e d o r a n t i c i p a t e d . We must have a DATT i n
Kigali. OSD i s w o r k i n g c l o s e l y w i t h DIA b u t may r e q u i r e h i g h
l e v e l a t t e n t i o n t o break the b u r e a u c r a t i c r o a d b l o c k s .

Next Steps

The l a s t Ad Hoc m e e t i n g was November 29, 1994. An Ad Hoc m e e t i n g

t h i s week would h e l p r e j u v e n a t e t h e i n t e r a g e n c y process and
c l a r i f y d i r e c t i o n on USG a s s i s t a n c e f o r t h e Z a i r i a n s e c u r i t y
f o r c e , r e f u g e e r e p a t r i a t i o n , c r i m i n a l j u s t i c e system s u p p o r t and
arms embargo s t a t u s . A U.S. d e l e g a t i o n d e p a r t s February 10th f o r
the r e g i o n a l r e f u g e e conference i n Bujumbura.

RECOMMENDATION

That you c o n t a c t t h e A t t o r n e y General and encourage support f o r

the War Crimes T r i b u n a l .

Approve Disapprove

That you agree t o an Ad Hoc Meeting t h i s Thursday o r F r i d a y w i t h

the agenda a t Tab I I .

Approve Disapprove

Attachments
Tab I T a l k i n g P o i n t s f o r C a l l t o A t t o r n e y General
Tab I I Agenda f o r Proposed Ad Hoc Meeting

co)iriDEiiTtRi£LINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

Pminnnrmr
 -i—Lui
TTUTTl my.
Proposed Agenda
Ad Hoc M e e t i n g on Rwanda

I. S i t u a t i o n Update CIA

II. Camp S e c u r i t y State

- l e v e l o f USG a s s i s t a n c e

I I I . Refugee R e p a t r i a t i o n State
- volcano contingency plans
- camp r e l o c a t i o n v s . r e p a t r i a t i o n

IV. A d m i n i s t r a t i o n o f J u s t i c e AID
- s t a t u s o f equipment, m i n i s t r y rehab
- c r i m i n a l j u s t i c e issues

V. M i l i t a r y Weapons/Training State/DOD
- IMET s t a t u s
- Arms embargo changes
- Z a i r i a n c o n t r o l l e d APCs

V I . Conclusions NSC

PERE a 1 3 5 2 6
CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY -
 0583REDO
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
WASHINGTON D.C. 20506

January 3 1 , 1995

ACTION

MEMORANDUM FOR ANTHONY LAKE

THROUGH: RICHARD
DON STEINBERG/jfT

FROM: TIMOTHY J.^TKIN/SUSAN^^etf

SUBJECT: Rwanda Update

UN Report on Camp S e c u r i t y

The S e c r e t a r y General r e l e a s e d h i s Second Report on S e c u r i t y i n

the Rwandan Refugee Camps January 27, 1995. I n c o n s u l t a t i o n w i t h
Mrs. Ogata, t h e S e c r e t a r y General decided t h e q u i c k e s t way t o
..^-araprove camp s e c u r i t y would be f o r UNHCR t o make a p p r o p r i a t e
rearrangements w i t h Z a i r e .

The r e p o r t notes i t has t r a d i t i o n a l l y been host c o u n t r y

r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t o provide s e c u r i t y f o r refugees. On January 27,
UNHCR and Z a i r i a n government r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s s i g n e d a s e c u r i t y
agreement. The agreement covers f i v e months w i t h t h e o p t i o n f o r
t h r e e month renewals u n t i l December 1995. UNHCR w i l l pay
s o l d i e r s a s a l a r y complement and p r o v i d e u n i f o r m s and equipment
at an e s t i m a t e d c o s t o f $13M ( r a i s e d by v o l u n t a r y d o n a t i o n ) .
UNHCR w i l l a l s o e s t a b l i s h a l i a i s o n group t o p r o v i d e t r a i n i n g and
l o g i s t i c a l support. The pact c a l l s f o r 1500 Z a i r i a n t r o o p s t o :

• m a i n t a i n law and o r d e r i n t h e camps;

• p r e v e n t i n t i m i d a t i o n o f refugees who wish t o r e t u r n home and

e s c o r t r e t u r n i n g refugees as f a r as t h e Rwandan b o r d e r ; and,

• p r o t e c t h u m a n i t a r i a n agency i n s t a l l a t i o n s and p e r s o n n e l .

UNHCR i s r e l y i n g on USG backing f o r and f i n a n c i a l support o f t h i s

p r o p o s a l . I t would be h e l p f u l , a t an Ad Hoc l e v e l , t o e s t a b l i s h
t h e l e v e l o f USG a s s i s t a n c e .

The S e c r e t a r y General r u l e d o u t peacekeeping, c o n t r a c t e d t r a i n i n g

and m o n i t o r s , and i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i c e m o n i t o r s / m i l i t a r y
o b s e r v e r s because o f a l a c k o f c o n t r i b u t i n g c o u n t r i e s and/or
costs.
D
•^^uCLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY S ' n n™
D e c l a s s i f y on: OADR P K K K-U. U 5 « .
conn DENT IAL

Operation Retour

As o f January 26, over 22,000 i n t e r n a l l y d i s p l a c e d persons (IDPs)

have r e t u r n e d t o t h e i r home communes v i a t r a n s p o r t and u n o f f i c i a l
r e p o r t s e s t i m a t e another 20,000 have r e t u r n e d on f o o t . Open
R e l i e f Centers (ORCs) are s e t up i n t h e communes t o p r o v i d e
temporary a s s i s t a n c e and, i n t h e case o f l a n d t e n u r e d i s p u t e s ,
s h e l t e r . Most ORCs are r e c e i v i n g l i t t l e use as people r e t u r n
home d i r e c t l y and t h e m a j o r i t y o f l a n d t e n u r e cases a r e b e i n g
r e s o l v e d i n a few days.

Refugee R e p a t r i a t i o n and the Volcanoes

The l i k e l i h o o d o f a v o l c a n i c e r u p t i o n near Goma i n February o r

March p r o v i d e s an o p p o r t u n i t y t o press refugee r e p a t r i a t i o n . The
p r e s e n t l e v e l o f a c t i v i t y seen i n one volcano has been
e x p e r i e n c e d f i v e times i n t h e l a s t 10 years; t h e volcano has
e r u p t e d each t i m e .

Our new Rwanda c o o r d i n a t o r , Ambassador Townsend Fr/^dman, met

l a s t week w i t h Mrs. Ogata. UNHCR, a c u t e l y aware o f t h e p o t e n t i a l
danger, has stepped up m o n i t o r i n g o f t h e volcanoes' a c t i v i t i e s
and i s d r a w i n g up e v a c u a t i o n contingency p l a n s . A t t h e same
t i m e , UNHCR i s e x p l o r i n g t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f moving t h e camps 30
m i l e s n o r t h i n Z a i r e . Friedman urged UNHCR t o use t h e v o l c a n o
t h r e a t t o encourage r e p a t r i a t i o n . While he found some
r e c e p t i v i t y among m i d - l e v e l UNHCR o f f i c i a l s , t h e r e seems t o be
l i t t l e enthusiasm a t h i g h l e v e l s f o r induced r e p a t r i a t i o n .

We c o n t i n u e t o s t r e s s t o Friedman t h e importance o f r e p a t r i a t i o n
as opposed t o camp r e l o c a t i o n . He and o t h e r s i n S t a t e a r e
focused on t h e p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l community w i l l
be c u l p a b l e i f t h e volcano e r u p t s and masses o f Rwandans and
r e l i e f workers a r e k i l l e d . Thus, S t a t e i s more concerned w i t h
moving t h e r e f u g e e s away from Goma i n g e n e r a l r a t h e r than back
i n t o Rwanda i n p a r t i c u l a r .

S t a t e w i l l f i n i s h an o p t i o n s paper by noon Thursday f o r

c o n s i d e r a t i o n by t h e Ad Hoc Group. The bureaucracy needs a
s t r o n g push on t h i s one.

UNAMIR

The E t h i o p i a n s i n d i c a t e d they may p u l l t h e i r b a t t a l i o n o u t o f

UNAMIR. They a r e f r u s t r a t e d w i t h t h e absence o f v i s i o n and
d i r e c t i o n f o r UNAMIR (measured i n p a r t by a l a c k o f refugees
r e t u r n i n g ) , and w i t h slow payment by t h e UN. We have pressed t h e
UN and t h e U/SYG Annan has p e r s o n a l l y overseen payment t o t h e
Ethiopians. We and t h e UN are s t r e s s i n g t o t h e E t h i o p i a n s t h e

-coHriDmTiMfi TNTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

COMF1DENTIAL

importance o f t h e i r p a r t i c i p a t i o n and s t r o n g l y u r g i n g t r o o p
r o t a t i o n i n mid-February r a t h e r than w i t h d r a w a l .

I n t e r n a t i o n a l War Crimes Tribunal

J u s t i c e Goldstone has a f o u r member team i n K i g a l i t o f i n a l i z e

arrangements. We a n t i c i p a t e t h e permanent seat t o be up and
r u n n i n g around t h e end o f February i n Arusha w i t h a s m a l l
contingent i n K i g a l i . The USG has a l r e a d y o r d e r e d computer
equipment f o r t h e t r i b u n a l h e a d q u a r t e r s .

While DOJ and FBI have n o t y e t p r o v i d e d any i n v e s t i g a t o r s f o r t h e

Rwandan T r i b u n a l , w h i l e t a l k i n g w i t h Nancy, Jamie G o r e l i c k
assured us DOJ i s s u p p o r t i v e . To address DOJ concerns and h e l p
o f f s e t USG agency resource demands o f t h e Rwandan t r i b u n a l , S t a t e
has been p r e s s i n g t h e UN t o reimburse t h e U.S. f o r some Yugoslav
t r i b u n a l d e t a i l e e s and b e l i e v e s we are c l o s e t o s e c u r i n g t h a t
commitment. A t DOJ's request i n November, we ensured t h a t
s e c u r i t y f o r i n v e s t i g a t o r s was added i n UNAMIR's mandate.

AID Efforts

AID i n d i c a t e s t h e K i g a l i m i s s i o n w i l l be o p e r a t i n g t h i s week and

s h o u l d a c c e l e r a t e t h e i r e f f o r t s . AID has been r e l u c t a n t t o
t a c k l e t h e most c r i t i c a l need i n Rwanda's j u s t i c e system:

• f u n d i n g f o r e i g n j u r i s t s t o a d j u d i c a t e c r i m i n a l cases; and,

• t e c h n i c a l a s s i s t a n c e t o t h e N a t i o n a l Commission charged w i t h
making a d m i n i s t r a t i v e d e t e r m i n a t i o n s about t h e a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s
of d e t a i n i n g t h e 10,000+ c r i m i n a l s i n overcrowded p r i s o n s .

AID b e l i e v e s U.S. a s s i s t a n c e i n r e s o l v i n g c r i m i n a l cases i s

p r o b l e m a t i c and c o u l d be a l o s e - l o s e p r o p o s i t i o n . I f t h e
c r i t e r i a f o r r e l e a s e are i n t e r p r e t e d t o o s t r i n g e n t l y we c o u l d be
blamed f o r s t a l l i n g r e c o n c i l i a t i o n , and i f those r e l e a s e d a r e
p u b l i c i z e d as l e g i t i m a t e c r i m i n a l s we c o u l d be blamed f o r
w a t e r i n g down t h e j u s t i c e system.

Furthermore, AID b e l i e v e s t h e r e may be a l e g i s l a t i v e p r o h i b i t i o n

on h e l p i n g t h e N a t i o n a l Commission ( i f i t ' s deemed law
enforcement a s s i s t a n c e ) . I f so, we c o u l d use a l e g i s l a t i v e
e x c e p t i o n o r p r e s i d e n t i a l waiver t o p r o v i d e t h e a s s i s t a n c e .

The d e c i s i o n r e g a r d i n g a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s o f USG support f o r these

elements o f Rwanda's j u d i c i a l program i s r e p o r t e d l y w i t h B r i a n
Atwood and may need t o be discussed a t an Ad Hoc meeting.

GOMriDc»TiAiri TNTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

COMFIDEHTIMT

M i l i t a r y Equipment and T r a i n i n g

S t a t e and OSD a r e r e s e a r c h i n g i f amended l e g i s l a t i o n f o r IMET

t r a i n i n g w i l l g e t t h r o u g h Congress o r whether a P r e s i d e n t i a l
w a i v e r may be r e q u i r e d .

OSD has proposed r e d r a f t i n g the UNSC arms embargo t o a u t h o r i z e

the p r o v i s i o n o f n o n - l e t h a l support f o r the Rwandan m i l i t a r y
(communications and l o g i s t i c s equipment). S t a t e i s d r a f t i n g an
i s s u e s paper. This w i l l need t o be r e s o l v e d a t the Ad Hoc l e v e l .

I n t e l l i g e n c e i n d i c a t e s around a dozen APCs m i s s i n g from Z a i r i a n

containment areas a r e l i k e l y i n ex-FAR c o n t r o l . S t a t e has moved
s l o w l y t o have the UN press Z a i r e t o c o n t r o l the v e h i c l e s , r e t u r n
them t o Rwanda o r d e s t r o y them ( w i t h GOR a p p r o v a l ) . S t a t e i s
d e v e l o p i n g a r e v i e w o f the o p t i o n s and the impact o f t h e arms
embargo and i n t e r n a t i o n a l law.

The DATT i n K i g a l i i s scheduled t o depart next month and no

replacement i s i d e n t i f i e d o r a n t i c i p a t e d . Walt Slocombe and t h e
DIA A d m i n i s t r a t o r hope t o r e s o l v e t h i s i s s u e Wednesday.

Next Steps

The l a s t Ad Hoc meeting was November 29, 1994. An Ad Hoc m e e t i n g

t h i s week would h e l p r e j u v e n a t e t h e i n t e r a g e n c y process and
c l a r i f y USG d i r e c t i o n r e g a r d i n g a s s i s t a n c e f o r the Z a i r i a n
s e c u r i t y f o r c e , refugee r e p a t r i a t i o n , c r i m i n a l j u s t i c e system
s u p p o r t and t h e arms embargo.

A U.S. d e l e g a t i o n d e p a r t s February 10th f o r the r e g i o n a l r e f u g e e

conference i n Bujumbura.

RECOMMENDATION

That you agree t o an Ad Hoc Meeting t h i s F r i d a y w i t h the agenda

at Tab I .
<
Approve \ ^ ^ Disapprove

Attachments
Tab I Agenda f o r Proposed Ad Hoc Meeting

CONFIDEMTIA, ^CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

 Secret
EQ 13526 3.5c I

DCI
National Intelligence Council
SPECIAL ESTIMATE

Rwanda-Burundi: Still on the

Brink 3.5c

Summary

More widespread violence between Hutus and the Tutsi minority could
engulf Rwanda and Burundi at any time in the next year. Growing mili-
ancy among Hutus in Zairian and Tanzanian refugee camps poses a secu-
rity threat to the Tutsi-dominated Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), relief
workers, and the host countries. Most Hutu refugees are unlikely to return
to Rwanda because they believe that the RPF is killing returnees. The Tut-
sis view the military as their only protection from another round of Hutu-
led genocide and will probably continue to use tough security measures
that risk widening the humanitarian crisis and conflict.f 3.5c

In Burundi, hundreds have died in ethnic clashes in the past few months,
while maneuvers by the Hutu ruling party and the Tutsi-led opposition
strain a UN-brokered power-sharing accord. Several incendiary issues
could spark a coup or ignite an ethnic conflagration. 3.5c

International mediators have had some effect in moderating conflict, but

Hutus
Hutu and Tutsis alike still believe that they are in a zero-sum game of eth-
survival. Policing the Rwandan refugee camps and negotiating a Hutu-
settlement enjoy the broadest support from the international commu-
ity, but many Hutus and Tutsis find even these solutions contentious. No
option can succeed if strongly opposed by either the RPF or Hutu leaders.
3.5c

1
gL'j^L-t-'. ...
Secret
SE 9S-5
January 1995
DECLASSIFIED IN PART
PER E. O. 13526 Copy OOB

SPECIAL ESTIMATE
CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY
 Secret

Rwandan Refugees and Displaced Persons, Late 1994

210,000 Number of refugees

^ Refugee camp
Refugee concentration
HH Displaced Rwandan Tutsis
The approximately 2 million internally
displaced Rwandan Hutus are distributed
throughout the country.

r-j^q:

rota/-ri-

Bukavu
Cyangugu
/n Bukavu area:_
357,000

Zaire
/n L/v/'ra area: ^
48,000
'Rwandan Hutu refugees amveO since April 1994.
- ,Lake •• . Numbera are based on Unried Nations High Commission (or
Refugaes (UNHCR) Infonratton. Country totals may include
Tanganyika
refugees tn camps off the map and refugees not in camps.
734J91 lR013::>1-95

EO 13526 3.5c

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CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

 Secret

Rwanda: Hutus and the RPF

Digging In Deeper ger a new mass exodus of refunees. Kigali is
also threatening to strike against the Hutu
n
2 million Hutus inside Rwanda. This could trig-

Hutus Going Nowhere for Now. Most of the camps in eastern Zaire if Zairian and interna-
estimated 2 million Hutu refugees in Zaire and tional authorities fail to halt Hutu military
Tanzania are not likely to return to Rwanda operations there. 3.5c
soon, unless compelled to leave the camps by
force or because of major food shortages. At
the same time, they are prevented by force from Burundi: Another Flashpoint
moving farther into their host countries. Most
refugees appear to remain loyal to the ousted Deep-seated differences between the Hutu
Hutu government, which orchestrated the geno- ruling party and the Tutsi-led opposition are
cide of at least 500,000 Tutsis and moderate increasing the likelihood of a major ethnic
Hutus. This de facto government-in-exile con- flareup in Burundi, as both test a UN-brokered
trols the refugee camps and the distribution of power-sharing agreement. More than 350
most relief aid and has convinced most Hutus Burundians have died in ethnic clashes since
that the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) will kill October 1994, with the incidents spreading into
them if they return home. 3.5c Bujumbura from the northern border region.
Tutsi extremists are plotting to murder dozens
Growing Hutu militancy in the camps is a more prominent moderate Hutus, and Hutu rad-
threat to aid workers and host countries. Some icals have targeted President Ntibantunganya—
35,000 Hutu soldiers from the defeated a Hutu—and other government leaders they
regime's army and 20,000 militiamen operate consider traitors. I 3.5c
in or near the refugee camps and occasionally
skirmish with Zairian and Tanzanian security Powersharing Falters. Despite a power-shar-
forces. Some conduct cross-border raids, in ing agreement awarding them virtual veto
hope of provoking an anti-RPF uprising in power, the Tutsi-led army and opposition hard-
Rwanda. The militias also use the displaced liners have mounted coup attempts and legal
person (DP) camps in Rwanda as bases for challenges against the government. Meanwhile,
attacks on the RPF and sympathizers. 3.5c radical Hutus have demanded an immediate
transfer of all power to the majority. In Decem-
RPF Hanging Tough. The RPF is more con- ber, political maneuvering threatened to splin-
cerned about security and seeking justice ter the multiparty government. Tutsi pressure
against Hutu mass murderers than bringing forced a Hutu activist to step down as National
Hutu refugees home. RPF troops and Tutsi Assembly Speaker. The President described
civilians have committed some revenge killings this as an assault on the Hutus' hold on power
against Hutu civilians accused of murdering and feared that Tutsi hardliners would launch a
Tutsis, and the regime has jailed some 20,000 civil disorder campaign.f^sc
suspected participants in the genocide. 3.5c

The RPF has no qualms about deploying its

50,000 troops to quash potential threats. It is
^hutting down the DP camps, which shelter

Secret

CLINTON LIBRARY PHOTOCOPY

Secret

Rwandan refugees. Burundi's Tutsi military

Scope Note leaders claim that the 200,000 Rwandan Hutu
refugees camped in Burundi who arrived last
This Special Estimate assesses the con- year are their country's greatest security
tinuing political crisis in Rwanda and threat. A possible influx of up to 300,000
Burundi and the.regional impact. It . ... : more—responding to the RPF's threats to
assumes that, oyer the next year; the inter-;, close DP camps in southwestern Rwanda—
national community will continue to would heighten the Tutsi fears. The military
donate current levels of relief aid but will and Tutsi vigilantes are already raiding refu-
not provide the enormous additional mill-.: gee camps and Burundian Hutu settlements.
tary and economic resources necessary to
stabilize the ethnic conflict or to induce Military integration. Ntibantunganya has
the refugees to return home. It also ' publicly stated that the military—now at least
assumes! that despite 'populationmove.r^jr three-fourths Tutsi—must mirror Burundi's
ments within and between the affected population mix—about 85-percent Hutu. Tut-
countries, local parties are not ready to sis, however, view the security forces as their
consider permanent ethnic partition as a guarantor of survival and will veto any pro-
long-term solution. It does not examine ; gram to change their ethnic composition. A
the.ihternationai^coinmunity's response toT program to redress the military's ethnic
a worsening humanitarian crisis.in the . • imbalance was the proximate cause of the
event of widespread violence in Burundi.; October 1993 coup attempt.
:
Some agencies believe that recent patterns
of ethnic segregation—especially in Hutu insurrection. The Tutsis' continued
Burundi—will at least dampen any new reliance on brute force to suppress Hutus is
outbreak of violence. 3.5c strengthening the appeal of Hutu radicals
calling for a violent uprising. Several thou-
sand Hutu militants—some with light infan-
try weapons—have established contacts with
Outstanding Tensions. Even if the current Rwandan Hutufightersbased in Zaire and are
political crisis cools off, other incendiary issues most active in northwestern Burundi. A Hutu
remain: revolt would spark a brutal response from the
Tutsi-controlled army.[ 3.5c
• Coup investigation. A UN proposal to
release its report on the October 1993 coup
attempt—which led to the murder of elected Regional Impact and Response
Hutu President Ndadaye and massive blood-
letting—would likely exacerbate tensions if Although countries in the region want a quick
accepted. This report probably echoes the resolution to the crisis in Rwanda and Burundi,
conclusion of human rights groups that senior none has much leverage or influence over the
Tutsi officers and opposition political leaders warring factions. Zaire and Tanzania are reel-
instigated the failed coup. If implicated by ing from the massive refugeeflows.In remote
the report, these officials may launch another
coup to safeguard their interests.

Secret
 Secret

EO 13526 1.4c

border regions of both countries, militant refu- is probably continuing military and political
gee communities challenge and at times sup- support to the RPF—many of whose leaders
plant the national government. Refugee helped President Museveni fight his way to
violence frequently spills into local villages— power. 3.5c
particularly in Zaire, where refugees are back-
ing ethnic Hutu Zairians infightingwith the
Bahunde ethnic group. The refugee influx has Limited Opportunity for Outside Influence
ruined forests and topsoil and depleted water
supplies. Meanwhile, prices of essential goods Proposals from regional and Western govern-
in the affected areas have skyrocketed with the ments, international organizations, and volun-
presence of the refugees, relief agencies, and tary agencies to defuse the regional crisis by
foreign workers.| 3.5c deploying a force to police the camps face
intense resistance from Hutus and Tutsis, who
Officials in Zaire are weighing the benefits of have little confidence in international security
increased aidflowsand their desire to enhance measures:
their international image against the cost of ref-
ugee induced instability. President Mobutu has • UNAMIR peacekeepers in Rwanda did not
strong links to the former Hutu regime and has halt the slaughter of Tutsis last spring. Their
on occasion supported Hutu refugee leaders. deployment after the RPF's victory has not
Nonetheless, Zaire's security forces—which convinced Hutu refugees and DPs that they
have a limited ability to maintain order in the can safely return home.
refugee affected areas—have recently attacked
several refugee camps. Tanzania has essentially
remained neutral throughout the crisis. Uganda

Secret
Scci-ct

Hutu leaders feel threatened by the UN inter- the international crimes tribunal could encour-
national crimes tribunal and probably view age more RPF restraint against suspected geno-
UN peacekeepers' deployment alongside cide criminals and lessen the Hutu fear of
RPF troops in recent security sweeps of DP vigilante justice. Furthermore, Museveni—a
camps as proof of a UN bias. trusted mentor and confidant to Vice President
and Defense Minister Kagame—could help
A proposal to send an international police argue that Rwanda will remain unstable unless
force to maintain security in the Zairian and Hutus are given a greater role in governing, but
Tanzanian refugee camps is foundering on his influence should not be overestimated.
UN member states' refusal to commit forces. 3.5c
Moreover, Hutu militants in the camps are
adamantly opposed to disarming or relocating. In Burundi, if ethnic violence remains at cur-
rent levels or subsides, then political moderates
The RPF believes a policing operation would from both the Hutu-majority and Tutsi opposi-
fail to defang the Hutu military. tion parties may have an opportunity to salvage
a national consensus. Such mainstream lead-
Burundi's military opposes any international ers—who have worked closely with the local
force, and uncooperative Tutsi soldiers have UN representative to negotiate the power-shar-
sidelined the Organization of African Unity ing accord—have been sidelined but not
military observer mission. 3.5c removed by extremist elements. The interna-
tional community can continue to work closely
Outside pressure is not likely to change the with such moderates as they try to consolidate a
conviction of most Hutus and Tutsis that they political middle ground. The longer run negoti-
are engaged in a zero-sum game of ethnic sur- ating trade-offs in both countries will involve a
vival. The RPF will not even consider negotia- complex web of minority political rights guar-
tions until Rwanda's exiled Hutu leadership antees, land-tenure issues, and physical secu-
admits to some culpability and regret for the rity protections that include representation in
slaughter. Meanwhile, the Hutus in both coun- and control of security forces.| 3.5c~
tries fear that the RPF's victory will embolden
the Tutsis to reassert their precolonial overlord- This Special Estimate was prepared under the auspices of the
ship. 3.5c National Imelligence Officer for Africa and was coordinated
with (he Deputy Director for Imelligence, Central Intelligence
Agency; the Director, Defense Intelligence Agency; the Direc-
Nonetheless, the attention of international tor, National Security Agency, and the Assistanl Secretary for
mediators and Western aid donors may have Imelligence and Research, Departmenl of Sla(e; the Depuly
Chief of Staff for Imelligence, Departmenl of the Army; (he
some success in reinforcing political moderates Direclor of Naval Intelligence, Department of (he Navy; (he
in both countries. In Rwanda, the presence of Assis(am Chief of S(aff, Intelligence, Department of (he Air
Force; and Headquarters, Marine Corps. 3 5
human rights monitors undoubtedly has slowed C

the pace of retribution against suspected Hutu

murderers. Swifter action and resource com-
mitments by the international community for

Secret
 REVISED
Agenda
Ad Hoc Meeting on Rwanda
DATE: Wednesday, February 8, 1995
TIME: 3:00 P.M. - 4:30 P.M.
PLACE: White House S i t u a t i o n Room

I. Introduction NSC

II. S i t u a t i o n Update CIA

III. USG Support f o r UNHCR Camp S e c u r i t y Program... State

IV. Volcano Contingency Plans State

V. J u s t i c e Issues AID
- s t a t u s o f U.S. c o n t r i b u t i o n s o f equipment,
support f o r m i n i s t r y r e h a b i l i t a t i o n -
- c r i m i n a l j u s t i c e issues
- USG c o n t r i b u t i o n s o f p e r s o n n e l t o War Crimes Tribunal

VI. M i l i t a r y Weapons ALL

- Arms embargo
- Z a i r i a n c o n t r o l l e d APCs
- I MET
0 {L. - K i g a l i DATT

VII. Burundi State

V I I I . Conclusion NSC

DECLASSIFIED
PER E.0.13526

Declassify onl^Lo^pk U N PHOTOCOPY

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