Probability and Probability

Distributions
Probability
• is the basis of statistical analysis, in making forecasts and
predictions.
• it is a value associated with mathematical or random
experiments.
• studies the possible outcomes of given events together with
the outcomes' relative likelihoods and distributions.
• used to mean the chance that a particular event (or set of
events) will occur expressed on a linear scale from 0
(impossibility) to 1 (certainty) also expressed between 0 and
100%.
A mathematical or random experiment is any procedure or process of
obtaining a set of observations which may be repeated under basically
the same conditions which will lead to well defined outcomes.

Tossing a coin two times and rolling a dice are examples of random
experiments.

In a mathematical experiment, the set of all possible outcomes is called

a sample space, denoted by S. An element (outcome) in a sample
space is called a sample point. An event is any subset of the sample
space.
Example: Consider the experiment of rolling a dice. Then the sample
space is the set S={1,2,3,4,5,6} which has six sample points. Now ,
define the following event as follows:
E1 = event of getting an odd number
E2 = event of getting even number
E3 = event of getting even prime number
E4= event of getting a number > 6
Then notice that,
E1 = {1,3,5}
E2 = {2,4,6}
E3 = {2}
E4 = {Ø}
An event consisting of only one element is called a simple event. If it contain
more than one element, it is called a compound event.
An event that does not have any element is called null or empty event.
Two events are said to be mutually exclusive if they do not have common
elements.
In particular, the null event is called an impossible event because it will never
happen. The sample space on the other hand is a sure event.
Example: In the previous example, observe that:
E3 is a simple event
E1 and E2 are compound events
E4 is a null event
E1 and E2 are mutually exclusive events
Are E3 and E4 mutually exclusive events? Why?
Since events may be represented by sets, then they do also satisfy certain
compositions or operations of events.
Events:
1. Union. The union of the two events A and B, denoted by A U B, is
the event containing all the elements that belong to A or B or both.
2. Intersection. The intersection of two events A and B, denoted by A B,
is the event containing all elements that are common to A and B.
3. Complement. The event that A does not occur, denoted as A'.
4. Mutually Exclusive/ Disjoint. Events that have no outcome in
common.

Note. The Venn Diagram is a useful tool to graphically illustrate the

complement, intersection and union of the events.
Counting Sample Points
• Multiplication Principle
Suppose two tasks T1 and T2 are to be performed in sequence. If
there are m ways of performing task T1, and n ways of performing task
T2, then there are mn ways of performing task T1, followed by task T2.

Example 1: Suppose 2 coins are thrown one after the other. How many
possible outcomes are there in the 2 throws.
The first coin when thrown give 2 possible outcomes; a head or tail.
Since another coin is thrown after the first, then it will have 2 possible
outcome also.

Answer: 2(2) = 4 outcomes (H,H) ; (H,T) ; (T, H) ; (T,T) in the throw of

2 coins, one after another.
Example 2. In how many ways can a pair of dice land?
The first dice land in 6 ways (1,2,3,4,5,6) and so does the second dice.
Hence, using the multiplication principle, both dice can land in.
6(6) = 36 ways
The 36 faces of the dice are shown below:
(1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
(2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
(3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
(4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
(5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
(6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)
• Note. This principle can be extended for k operations. It is called the
Generalized Multiplication Principle.
Supposed that tasks T1, T2, T3 ... are to be performed in sequence. If
T1 can be performed in N1 ways and if the following this task, T2 can be
performed in N2 ways, and if the following this task, T3 can be
performed in N3 ways, and so forth, then the number of ways the tasks
can be performed in the indicated sequence is exactly N1, N2, N3...
Example 3. Suppose a car plate number contains two distinct letters
followed by three digits with the first digit not zero. How many
different plates can be printed?

Letters Digits
The first box can be filled up with 26 different letters, and the second
box can be filled up with 25 different letters since the letter printed
first cannot be chosen for the second letter. Now for the digit place,
the first place can be filled up with only 9 different digits since the first
digit cannot be zero and each of the other last two digits in 10 ways.
So, there are 26x25x9x10x10 = 585,000 different plates can be printed.
Example 4. In how many ways can a chairperson, secretary and
treasurer be selected from 6 persons if no person serves at least one
position?
The officers can be chosen in 3 successive steps. First select the
chairperson, next select the secretary and then the treasurer. The
chairperson can be chosen from the 6 people in 6 different ways. Once
the chairperson is selected, the secretary can be selected from the
remaining 5 persons. After choosing the chairperson and the secretary,
the treasurer can be selected from the remaining 4 persons.
Therefore the total number of ways of selecting a chairperson, a
secretary and a treasurer from six persons is:
6x5x4 = 120 ways
• Permutation is an ordered arrangement of its elements.
Denote by factorial symbol ! the product of decreasing positive
whole numbers.
n! = n(n-1)(n-2)(n-3) ... 3.2.1
where n is an integer greater than or equal to 1.
Example: 5! = 5(4)(3)(2)(1) =120

note: we define 0! = 1
Example 1. Let S={1,2,3}. Find all permutation of S.
3! = 6 permutations
The different permutations of the elements of S can be obtained by
rearranging its elements. Thus we have
123 132 213 231 312 321
There are 6 different permutation of S.

Example 2. The set S = {a,b,c,d}. Find the permutation of S.

4! = 24 permutations namely
abcd bacd cabd dabc abdc badc cadb dacd
acbd bcad cbad dbac acdb bcda cdba dbca
adbc bdac cdab dcab adcb bdca cdca dcba
There are instances sometimes, when we practically interested with
the ordering of r selections from a set consisting of n elements. Such
an ordering, called an r-permutation, calls an idea of permuting n
distinct objects taken r at time where r is equal or less than n.

Accordingly, the number of Permutations (n,r) of n distinct objects

taken r at a time is given by:
P(n,r) = n! / (n-r)!

Example: Let S={1,2,3,4}. Find the number of permutations of S taken 2

at a time. List all these.
Solution: We know that S has 4 elements. Hence n=4. Since the
elements of S are permuted 2 at a time., then r=2. So the required
number of permutations is given by:
P(4,2) = 4! /(4-2)!
= 4! /2!
= 12
The following are the 12 different permutations of S taken 2 at a time.
12 13 14 21 23 24
31 32 34 41 42 43
• Circular Permutation
In general there are (n-1)! ways of arranging n objects around a circle.
Example: In how many ways can a party of 5 persons arrange themselves
around a circular table.
Solution: The 5 persons can be seated in (5-1)! = 4! = 24 ways.

• Permutation with repetitions

The number of distinguishing permutations of n objects in which n1
are alike, n2 are alike, n3 are alike...nk are alike where n1+n2+n3+...nk=n
is given by: n!/ (n1!n2!n3!...nk!)
Example: How many different signals, each consisting of 6 flags hung in
a vertical line, can be formed from 4 identical red flags and 2 identical
blue flags?
Solution:
This problem concerns permutations with repetitions. Accordingly,
there are 6 flags of which four are identical and another two are
identical. So, there are
6!/ (4!2!) = 15 signals that can be formed.
• Combinations
Another counting technique whose order does not matter (unlike that
of a permutation).
-consider a set S which consists of n elements.
A combination of these n elements taken r at a time, or r-combination,
denoted by C (n,r) is defined as any subset of S consisting of r elements.
In other words, an r-combination of S is an unordered selection of r
elements of S.

The number of combinations of n objects taken r at a time C(n,r) is

define as:
C(n,r)= n! / r!(n-r)!
Example. Let S={1,2,3,4}. Then the combination of S taken 3 at a time
is C(4,3) = 4!/3!(4-3)!
= 4!/3!(1!)
= 24/6
=4

Taking any subset of S consisting of 3 elements such as: {1,2,3}, {1,2,4},

{1,3,4} and {2,3,4}. Observe that the subsets; {1,3,2},{2.1.3},{3,1,2},
{3,2,1}, and {2,3,1} are all similar to the subset {1,2,3)
The difference between a combination and a permutation can be
shown using the letters A, B, C, and D. The permutaions for the letters
A,B,C and D are:
AB BA CA DA
AC BC CB DB
AD BD CD DC
In permutation, AB is different from BA. But in combinations, AB is the
same as BA since the order of the objects does not matter in
combination. Therefore, if duplicates are removed from list of
permutation, what left is a list of combination.
AB BA CA DA
AC BC CB DB
AD BD CD DC
Some Properties of Probability:
Let S be a sample space and let A, be any event of S.
a) Priori or Classical Probability
Here, the probability is determined before the experiment is performed. It requires equally
likely outcomes and assumes that a given procedure has n different simple events and that
each of these sample events has an equal chance of occuring. Thus, the probability of an event,
P(A) is defined as:
P(A) = number of sample pts in A / number of sample pts in S
b) Posteriori or Empirical Probability
Here, the probability is determined by repeating the experiment a large number of times.
Thus
P(A) = number of times event A occurred / number of times the experiment was conducted

c) Subjective Probability
Here, the probability is determined by one's judgement or intuition. In most cases, the
probability is found by simply guessing or estimating its values base on knowledge or relevant
circumstances.
Example. Let a card be selected at random from an ordinary pack of 52
cards.
Let A be event of getting a spade
Let B be event of getting a face card
Then P(A) = no. of spades / no of cards
= 13/52 = 1/4
P(B) = no. face cards / no of cards
= 12/52
= 3/13
Example: The probability that
i) an even number appears in the toss of a dice is
P = 3/6 = 1/2
ii) a king appears in drawing a single card from an ordinary pack of 52.
P = 4/52 = 1/13
iii) at least one tail in the toss of three coins appear is
P = 7/8
iv) a white marble appears in drawing a single marble from a box
containing 4 white, 3 red, and 5 blue marbles is
P = 4/(4+3+5) = 1/3
Binomial Distribution
- can be thought of a simply the probability of a success or failure
outcome in an experiment or survey that is repeated multiple times.
- is a type of distribution that has two possible outcomes.
- for example coin toss has only two possible outcomes: heads or tail
and taking a test could have two possible outcomes: pass or fail
Criteria:
1. The number of observations or trials is fixed.
2. Each observation or trial is independent. None of the trials have an
effect on the probability of the next trial.
3. The probability of success ( tails, heads, fail, pass) is exactly the
same from one trial to another.
The Binomial Distribution Formula

Example. A six sided dice is rolled 12 times. What is the probability of getting a 4 five
times?
n = 12 p= 1/6
x=5 q = 5/6
P(5) = 792 (1/6)5 (5/6)12-5
= 792 (1/6)5 (5/6)7
= 0.028425 X 100%
= 2.84%
Example. A multiple choice test contains 20 questions with answer choices A,
B, C, and D. Only one answer choice to each question represents a correct
answer. Find the probability that a student will answer exactly 6 correct
questions if he makes random guesses on all 20 questions.
n = 20 P(6) = 38,760 (0.25)6 (0.75)14
x= 6 = 0.168609
p = 1/4 or 0.25 = 16.86%
q= 3/4 or 0.75
Poisson Distribution
• There are experiments which yield a number of outcomes that occur
during a given time interval. This time interval may be of any length
such as minute, hour, a day, a week or a month.
• Examples of Poisson Experiments
a. The number telephone calls received per hour.
b. The number of volcano eruptions in a year.
c. The number of car accident in a week.
Formula: where: u = average number of outcome
occuring in a given interval
e =2.718 (Euler's constant)
x = no. of outcomes
Example. A small business receives, on average, 12 customer per day.
What is the probability that the business will receive 8 customers in
one day?
u = 12
x=8
P(X;u) = ux(e-u) / x!
P(X;8) = 128 e-12 /8!
= 0.065523
= 6.55%
Example. The average number of times in a week a machine is down due to
brownout is 4. What is the probability that the machine will down for 6 times
in a week?
X=6
u=4
Using Poisson Distribution Formula
P(X;u) = e-4 (4)6 / 6!
= 54.57 (4096) / 720
= 0.1042
= 10.42%