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Exercise 1

exercise 1

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Uday Jain
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29 views

Exercise 1

exercise 1

Uploaded by

Uday Jain
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF or read online on Scribd
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12 1.22 1.32 2.10 241 2.42 2.64 2.65 Are some cities more windy than others? Does Chicago deserve to be nicknamed “The Windy City”? Given below are the average wind speeds (in miles per hour) for 45 selected U.S. cities: 89 124 86 113 92 88 351 62 70 T1 M8 107 76 91 92 82 90 87 91 109 103° 96 TS ILS 93 7.9 88 88 127 84 78 57 105 105 96 89 10.2 103 77 106 83 88 95 88 94 Source: The World Almanac and Book of Facts, 2004. a Construct a relative frequency histogram for these data. (Choose the class boundaries without including the value 35.1 in the range of values.) b The value 35.1 was recorded at Mt, Washington, New Hampshire, Does the geography of that city explain the magnitude of its average wind speed? © The average wind speed for Chicago is 10.3 miles per hour. What percentage of the cities have average wind speeds in excess of Chicago's? Do you think that Chi 20 is unusually windy? Prove that the sum of the deviations of a set of measurements about thei that is, mean is equal to zero: Yoi- to ¥ + 4s is at least (1 — 1/4?). (Hint: a + i [de -'} > ks with ks, Simplify] This result In this expression, replace all deviations for which [y; is known as Tehebysheff’s theorem. ‘The proportions of blood phenotypes, A, B, AB. and O, in the population of all Caucasians in the United States are approximately .41, .10, .04, and 45, respectively. A single Caucasian is ‘chosen at random from the population. List the sample space for this experiment, ‘Make use of the information given above to assign probabilities to each of the simple events. ¢ What is the probability that the person chosen at random has either type A or type AB blood? How many different seven-di telephone numbers ean be formed if the first digit eannot be A personnel director fora corporation has hired ten new engineers. If three (distinctly different) positions are open at a Cleveland plant, in how many ways can she fill the positions? ‘A study is to be conducted in a hospital to determine the attitudes of nurses toward various administrative procedures. A sample of 10 nurses is to be selected from a total of the 90 nurses employed by the hospital a How many different samples of 10 nurses can be selected? b Twenty of the 90 nurses are male. If 10 nurses are randomly selected from those employed by the hospital, what is the probability that the sample of ten will include exactly 4 male ‘Cand 6 female) nurses? A balanced dic is tossed six times, and the number on the uppermost face is recorded each ‘ime. What is the probability that the numbers recorded are 1, 2,3, 1d 6 in any order? Refer to Exercise 2.64. Suppose that the die has been altered so that the faces are 1. 2.3.4. 5. and 5. the die is tossed five times, what is the probability that the numbers recorded are 1,2, 3,4, and 5 in any order? 2.68 2.69 273 277 ‘Show that, for any integer m > 1, a (0) = 1. Ionexpret this result be (°) = 1. Lanexpret this result () = (.1,)- lnterpret this result d X() 2" (Hi “onsider the binomial expansion of (x + y)" withx = y= 1] Prove that (*) = () + (2 Gregor Mendel was a monk who, in 1865, suggested a theory of inheritance based on the science of genetics. He identified heterozygous individuals for flower color that had two alleles (one r = recessive white color allele and one R = dominant red color allele). When these luals were mated, 3/4 of the offspring were observed to have red flowers, and 1/4 had ‘white flowers, The following table summarizes this matin, to form the gene of the offspring. +h parent gives one of its alleles Parent 2 Parent I R r rook R Rr RR ‘We assume that each parent is equally likely to give cither of the two alleles and that, if either ‘one or two of the alleles in a pair is dominant (R), the offspring will have red flowers. What is the probability that an offspring has at least one dominant allele? b at least one recessive allele? © one recessive allele, given that the offspring has red flowers? A study of the posttreatment behavior of a large number of drug abusers suggests that the likelihood of conviction within a two-year period after treatment may depend upon the offenders education, The proportions of the total number of cases falling in four education-convi categories are shown in the following table: wus within 2 Years after Treatment Education Convicted Not Convicted —Tosal 1 years ormore 10 30 40 9 years oF less. a 33 60. Total 37 63 1.00 ‘Suppose that a single offender is selected from the treatment program. Define the events: A: The offender has 10 of more years of ed B: The offender is convicted within two years afier completion of treatment. Find the following: PUA). PUB) PIANB). PIAUB). PA). P(AUB). P(ANB). PAL), P(BIA). are ne ane 2.79 2.80 2.81 2.82 2.83 2.97 2.08 2.102 2.104 If P(A) > 0, P(B) > 0, and P(A) < P(A|B), show that P(B) < P(BIA). Suppose that A C Band that P(A) > Oand P(B) > 0. Are A and B independent? Prove your answer. Suppose that A and B are mutually exclusive events, with P(A) > O and P(B) <1. Are A and B independent? Prove your answer. Suppose that A C Band that P(A) > Oand P(B) > 0. Show that P(BJA) = 1 and P(A|B) = PCA)/P(B), ICA and B are mutually exclusive events and P(B) > 0, show that Pay Palausy= 5 (AAO B= Toe PB Consider the following portion of an electric circuit with thre relays. Current wil flow from point ato poin bi theres atleast one closed path when the relays are activated, The relays ‘may malfunction and not close when activated. Suppose that the relays act independently of one another and close properly when activated, witha probability of 9. a What is the probability that current will flow when the relays are activated? b_ Given that current flowed when the relays were activated, what isthe probability that relay | functioned? With relays operating as in Exercise 2.97, compare the probability of current flowing from a to in the series system shown +—_0-—_0— with the probability of flow in the parallel system shown, Diseases I and II are prevalent mong people in a certain population, Itis assumed that 10% of the population will contract disease I sometime during theie lifetime, 15% will contract disease Teventually, and 3% will eontract both diseases. a Find the probability that a randomly chosen person from this population will contract at least one disease. b Find the conditional probabi contract both diseases, given 1 ity that a randomly chosen person from this population will ithe or she has contracted at least one disease. IFA and B are twoevents, prove that P(AMB) > |= PCH) ~ PCB). (Note: This isa simplified version of the Bonferroni inequality.) 2414 2.421 2.125 2.126 A lic detector will show a positive reading (indicate a lie) 10% of the time when a person is, telling the truth and 95% of the time when the person is lying. Suppose two people are suspects in a one-person crime and (for certain) one is guilty and will lie. Assume Further that the lie detector operates independently for the truthful person and the liar. What is the probability that the detector shows a positive reading for both suspects? b shows a positive reading for the guilty suspect and a negative reading for the innocent suspeet? is completely wrong—that is, that it gives a positive reading for the innocent suspect and a negative reading forthe guilty? dives apos ive reading for either or both of the two suspects? A new secretary has been given mt computer passwords, only one of which will permit access to a computer file. Because the secretary has no idea which password is correct, he chooses ‘one of the passwords at random and tries it If the password is incorrect, he discards it and. randomly selects another password from among those remaining, proceeding in this manner ‘unt he finds the correct password, a What is the probability that he obtains the correct password on the first try? ‘Whats the probability that he obtains the correct password on the second try? The third try? © A security system has been set up so that if three incorrect passwords are tried before the correct one, the computer file is locked and access to it denied. If n = 7, what is the probability that the secretary will gain access t0 the file? A diagnostic test for a disease is such that it (correctly) detects the disease in 90% of the individuals who actually have the disease. Also, if a person does not have the disease, the test will report that he or she does not have it with probability 9. Only 1% of the population has the disease in question. Ifa person is chosen at random from the population and the diagnostic test indicates that she has the disease, what is the conditional probability that she does, in Fact, have the disease? Are you surprised by the anywer? Would you call this diagnostic test reliable’? Applet Exercise Referto Exercise 2.125. The probability thatthe test detects the disease given that the patient has the disease is called the sensitivity ofthe test. The specificity ofthe testis the probability thatthe test indicates no disease given that the patient is disease free. The positive predictive value of the testis the probability that the patient has the disease given that the test indicates that the disease is present. In Exercise 2.125, the disease in question was relatively rare, occurring with probability .01, and the test described has sensitivity = specificity = .90 and positive predictive value = 0833. a Inaneffort to increase the positive predictive value of the test, the sensitivity was increased to 95 and the specificity remained at .90, what is the positive predictive value of the “improved” test? 1b Still not satisfied with the positive predictive value of the procedure, the sensitivity of the testis increased to .999. What is the posi 1¢ of the (now twice) modified test ifthe specificity stays at 90? © Look carefully at the various numbers that were used to compute the positive predictive ‘value of the tests. Why are all of the positive predictive values so smalf? (Hint: Compare the size of the numerator and the denominator used in the fraction that yields the value of, the positive predictive value, Why is the denominator so (relatively) large} The proportion of individuals with the disease is not subject to our control. Ifthe sensitivity of the testis 90, is it possible thatthe positive predictive value of the test can be increased toa value ahove 5? How? [Hint: Consider improving the specificity of the test] € Based on the results of your calculations in the previous parts, if the disease in question is relatively rare, how can the positive predictive value of a diagnostic test be significantly increased? 2.127 2.137 2.149 2.163 Applet Exercise Refer to Exercises 2.125 and 2.126. Suppose now that the disease is not particularly rare and occurs with probability 4 If, as in Exercise 2.125, a test has sensitivity = specificity = .90, what is the pos predictive value of the test b Why is the value of the positive predictive value of the test so much higher thatthe obtained in Exereise 2.125? [Hint: Compare the size of the numerator and the denominator used in the fraction that yields the value of the positive predictive value.] © Iethe specificity ofthe test remains 90, can the sensitivity of the test be ad «positive predictive value above 87? Ifthe sensitivity remains at 90, can the specificity he adjusted to obtain a post value above .95? How? € The developers of a diagnostic test want the test to have a high positive predictive value, Based on your calculations in previous parts of this problem and in Exercise 2.126, is the value of the specificity more or less critieal when developing a test fora rarer disease? Five identical bowls are labeled 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, Bow! i contains i white and 5 — i black balls, with = 1, 2,..., 5. A bow! is randomly selected and two balls are randomly selected (without replacement) from the contents of the bowl fed to obtain, ve pred a What i the probability that both balls selected are white? Given that both balls selected are white, what isthe probability that bow! 3 was selected? A large group of people is to be checked for two common symptoms of a certain disease. It is thought that 20% of the people possess symptom A alone, 30% possess symptom B alone. 10% possess both symptoms, and the remainder have neither symptom. For one person chosen at random from this group, find these probabilities: a The person has neither symptom. b The person has at least one symptom. € The person has both symptoms, given that he has symptom B Relays used in the construction of electric circuits function properly with probability 9. As- suming that the circuits operate independently, which of the following circuit designs yields the higher probability that current will flow when the relays are activated? 7 3 7 H Lee of Les 0 a 2.164 2.165 37 3.12 3.15 3.16 3.17 1, 1S A B Refer to Exercise 2.163 and consider circuit A. If we know that current is lowing, what is the probability that switches I and 4 are functioning properly?” Refer to Exercise 2.163 and consider circuit B. If we know that current is flowing, what is the probability that switches I and 4 are functioning properly? Each of three balls are randomly placed into one of three bowls. Find the probability distibution for ¥ = the number of empty bowls. Let ¥ be a random variable with p(y) given in the a EQ? = 1), and VY). companying table. Find E(Y), E(1/Y). pola 3 2 An insurance company issues a one-year $1000 poli historically happens to2 out of every 100 owners ofthe policy. Administrative fees are S15 per policy and are not part of the company’s “profit.” How much should the company charge for the policy if it requires that the expected profit per policy be $50? [Hint: IFC is the premium for the policy, the company’s “profit” is C— IS if A does not occur and C—15—L000if A does occur] insuring against an occurrence A that The secretary in Exercise 2.121 was gi random. Exactly one password will permit ac ther of trials required to open the file 2.121). 1n computer passwords and tries the passwords at to a computer file. Find the mean and the f unsuccessful passwords are variance of Y, the nu minated (as in Exerei . Find the mean and standard deviation for ¥ = the number of empty in 2 standard deviations of the mean’? Refer to Exercise 3 the probability that the value of ¥ falls 3.24 3.33 3.34 3.50 3.59 3.61 3.70 3.73 3.121 3.122 Approximately 10% of the glass bottles coming off a production line have serious flaws in the ¢glass. If two bottles are randomly selected, find the mean and variance of the number of bottles that have serious flaws. Let ¥ be a discrete random variable with mean jc and variance 6%. Ifa and b are constants, ‘use Theorems 3.3 through 3.6 to prove that a ElaY +b) =aE(Y) +b=an +b. b Va¥ +b) =0°V(Y) =a, ‘The manager of a stockroom in a factory has constructed the following probability distribution for the daily demand (number of times used) for a particular tool 0 2 Ply Itcosts the factory $10 each time the tool is used. Find the mean and variance of the daily cost for use of the tool protection system eo ¥y of 9 of detecting a ts of nm radar sets operating independently, each with a le entering a zone that is covered by all of the unit a If = Sand a missile enters the zone, what is the probability that exactly four sets detect the missile? At least one set? b How large must be if we require that the probability of detecting a missile that enters the zone be .9997 ‘Ten motors are packaged for sale in a certain warehouse. The motors sell for $100 each, but a double-your-money-back guarantee is in effect for any defectives the purchaser may receive. Find the expected net gain for the seller if the probability of any one motor being defective is .08, (Assume that the quality of any one motor is independent of that of the others.) Of the volunteers donating blood in a clinic, 80% have the Rhesus (Rh) factor present in their blood. a If five volunteers are randomly selected, what is the probat have the Rh factor? b_ If five volunteers are randomly selected, what Rh factor? © What is the smallest number of volunteers who must be selected if' we want t0 be at least 90% certain that we obtain atleast five donors with the Rh factor? Anil prospector will drill a succession of holes, probability that he is successful on a given tral is 2 ‘a What is the probability that the third hole drilled is the first to yield a productive well? b If the prospector can afford to drill at most ten wells, what is the probability that he will {ail to find a productive well? ‘A certified public accountant (CPA) has found that nine of ten company audits contain sub- stantial errors. Ifthe CPA audits a series of company accounts, what first account containing substantial errors ity that at least one does not the probability that at most four have the a given area to find a productive well. The ited? ind audited account? ‘a. is the third one to be aun b_ will occur on or afier the Let ¥ denote a random variable that has a Poisson distribution with mean = 2. Find PO =4). PO 2 4). PY <4), PY 2 Aly > 2). Customers arrive at a checkout counter in a department store according to a Poisson distribution at an average of seven per hour. During a given hour, what are the probabilities that ane no more than three customers arrive? b at least two customers arrive? € exactly five customers arrive? “3.215, 4.8 411 4.12 4.16 4.28 It is known that 5% of the members of a population have disease A, which can be discovered by a blood test, Suppose that A’ (a large number) people are to be tested. This can be done in tswo ways: (1) Each person is tested separately, or (2) the blood samples of k people are pooled together and analyzed. (Assume that N= nk, with 1 an integer.) Ifthe test is negative, all of them are healthy (that is, just this one test is needed). If the testis positive, each of the k persons must be tested separately (that is, a total of k + 1 tests are needed). a For fixed k, what is the expected number of tests needed in option 2? b Find the & that will minimize the expected number of tests in option 2, © Ifkisselected as in part (b).on the average how many tests does option 2 save in compari «with option 1? Suppose that ¥ has density funetion ky(l-y), OZ ¥E1, om elsewher Find the value of & that makes f(y) a probability density function. Find P(4 = Y 5 1). Find P(4 5 Y < 1). Find POY = IY = 8). Find POY < 4lY < 8). canes Suppose that ¥ possesses the density funetion Osys2, oy FOV. ctoowhere Find the value of ¢ that makes f(y) a probability density function. Find F(y) Graph f() and Fy). Use F(y) to find POS ¥ $2) Use f(y) and geometry to find PL SY <2). eens ‘The length of time to failure (in hundreds of hours) fora transistor isa random variable ¥ with distribution function given by 0 y=, yz. Show that Fy) has the properties of a distribution funetion. by Find the .30-quantile, 39. of ¥ © Find f(y). Find the probability that the transistor operates for at Least 200 hours, Find PCY > 100|¥ = 200), Let ¥ possess a density function cQ-y), OSy¥s 10) (ewe a Finde. b Find FG. © Graph f(y) and Fy). Use F(y) in part (b) to find P(I-< ¥ <2). @ Use geometry and the graph for f(y) to ealeulate PL < ¥ <2) The proportion of time per day that all checkout counters ina supermarket are busy isa random variable Y with density function cy -yt Osysh foysyr* elsewhere, a Find the value of ¢ that makes f(y) a probability density function. b Find BY). 4.29 4.30 4.43 4.48 4.58 4.68 4.69 473 47a ‘The temperature ¥ at which a thermostatically controlled switch turns on has probability density function given by HK | 12, 599s y <6, = Lo, elsewhere, Find E(¥) and V(F). ‘The proportion of time ¥ that an industrial robot is in operation during @ 40-hour week is a random variable with probability density function \ [e Osysl y= / 0, elsewhere. a Find EQ) and V(V) For the robot under study, the profit X fora week is given by X = 200Y — 60, Find E(X) and V(X). © Find an interval in which the profit should lie for atleast 754% of the weeks that the robot A circle of radius r has area A = 72, Ifa random circle has a radius that is uniformly dis- tributed on the interval (0, 1), what are the mean and variance of the area of the circle? Beginning at 12:00 midnight, 2 computer center is up for one hour and then down for two hours ‘on a regular cycle. A person who is unaware of this schedule dials the center at a random time between 12:00 midnight and 5:00 A.Mt. What is the probability that the center is up when the person's call comes in? ‘Use Table 4, Appendix 3, to find the following probabilities for a standard normal random variable Z: PO SZ 212) P(-9 0, SO)= elsewhere. Find the value of k that makes f(y) a density function, Does ¥ have a x? distribution? If s0, how many degrees of freedom? ‘What are the mean and standard deviation of ¥°? Applet Exercise What is the probability that ¥ lies within 2 standard deviations of its mean? IFY has a probability density function given by Ayre ro={ 6. aoee ‘obiain E(Y) and V(Y) by inspection, TOI=4 The relative humidity Y, when measured at a location, has a probability density function ssiven by key, OSy sh FO 0. elsewhere, a Find the value of & that makes f(y) a density function, b Applet Exercise Use the applet Bera Probabilities and Quantites to find a hu that is exceeded only 5% of the time, fO) {e a value elsewhere, ‘obtain E(Y) and V(Y) by inspection, ‘The weekly repair cost ¥ for a machine has a probability density function given by [or O

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